Transcript
Good morning, and welcome to Shoe Carnival's Second Quarter 2025 Conference Call. Today's conference call is being recorded and is also being broadcast via webcast. Any reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this call is expressly prohibited. Management's remarks today may contain forward-looking statements that involve a number of risk factors. These risk factors could cause the company's actual results to be materially different from those projected in such statements. Forward-looking statements should also be considered in conjunction with the discussion of risk factors included in the company's SEC filings and today's earnings press release. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today's date. The company disclaims any obligation to update any of the risk factors or to publicly announce any revisions to the forward-looking statements discussed on today's conference call or contained in today's press release to reflect future events or developments. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Mark Worden, President and CEO of Shoe Carnival, for opening remarks. Mr. Worden, you may begin.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for Shoe Carnival's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on today's call are Patrick Edwards, Chief Financial Officer; and Tanya Gordon, Chief Merchandising Officer. Our second quarter results demonstrate meaningful progress on our corporate strategy. We beat earnings consensus by over 20% and expanded gross margins 270 basis points to 38.8%, our strongest Q2 margin in years. Our rebanner strategy is exceeding targets. EPS declined year-over-year from our planned rebanner investments, as expected, but margins expanded faster than planned, driving our strong earnings beat for the quarter. Since our last call, we've completed our back-to-school season, the period that defines our year. Fiscal August represents less than 8% of our days, but drives approximately 25% of our annual profits. As we moved into back-to-school in August, we achieved a significant milestone. The company returned to positive comparable sales growth for this must-win period. Shoe Station grew sales high single digits and expanded margins. Shoe Carnival delivered positive children's category comp sales growth and margin growth. Rogan's expanded both comparable sales and margins. Every banner stepped up when it mattered most. Let me walk through what drove these results and why it matters for our future. Three strategic decisions shaped our quarter in back-to-school success. First, we prioritized margin dollars over pursuing lower-quality, lower-profit sales. Second, we invested in inventory depth to improve availability for back-to-school. Third, we continued investing in our rebanner program despite market uncertainty. These choices are paying off. Q2 gross margins reached 38.8%. That 270 basis point expansion came from disciplined pricing, improved mix, and better inventory availability, not from deep discounting. The rebanner strategy contribution was significant. Shoe Station outperformed Shoe Carnival by over 10% on merchandise sales during Q2 and back-to-school. Beyond top line sales gains, we're seeing a shift in demographics from Carnival's sub-$30,000 household towards Shoe Station's over $50,000 range. This evolution in customer mix is driving improved economics across the portfolio and reducing the corporation's exposure to economic downturns. These new Shoe Station households shop differently. They purchase premium brands and build higher-priced baskets. The result, product margins expanded 280 basis points at Shoe Station in Q2 plus fiscal August versus the prior year. Carnival and Rogan both expanded margins, too. But the new customer buying higher-priced premium brands at Shoe Station is the big strategic win to highlight. All of this delivered $0.70 in EPS, beating expectations and giving us the confidence to raise our annual profit guidance range today. Turning to back-to-school. August was our first real test of Shoe Station at scale, and we passed convincingly. We ran one campaign idea across three banners with ruthless simplicity. We have the brands families want at prices that make sense, heavy digital, strategic social, surgical television, and rebanner markets. The fiscal August numbers were strong. Shoe Station grew comparable sales high single digits overall, driven by the children's category growing sales high singles with margin expansion and the adult athletics category growing sales in the low 20s, also with margin growth. Notably, Shoe Carnival delivered positive children's comp sales and margin growth for fiscal August back-to-school also, despite a challenging environment for the lower-income customer. Each banner contributed differently during back-to-school. Station attracted new higher-income shoppers. Carnival competed effectively without sacrificing economics. Rogan started its rebannering efforts towards Shoe Station and migration towards the more accretive pricing strategy. Based on encouraging sales growth results during Rogan's rebanner start, we extended the campaign into fall. Now let me review the latest details on our rebanner rollout progress because this is where our strategy becomes reality. We acquired Shoe Station's 21 stores at the end of 2021. We entered fiscal 2025 with double the store count since the acquisition with 42 Shoe Station stores, approximately 10% of our fleet. Through relentless execution, we're now at 87 Shoe Station stores, approximately 20% of the company. By the end of fiscal 2025, we'll operate 145 Shoe Station stores, approximately 1/3 of our entire fleet. By back-to-school 2026, we'll surpass 215 stores, 51% of the current fleet at Shoe Stations. That's the tipping point where growth begins to overtake the climb, and we become a different company. The performance gap is developing as we anticipated. Shoe Station rebanners sales are up 8% year-to-date through August, while Carnival comps declined high singles. The Shoe Station rebanners are generating product margins 270 basis points above prior year through August year-to-date. Importantly, we are growing sales with a more affluent target we aim to attract to Shoe Station, with sales now growing in the core demographic of over $50,000 household income. Shoe Station's back-to-school taught us valuable lessons. We won in athletics. We expanded margins across categories. We sharply grew our children's category penetration. But despite the growth achieved, we left sales on the table in the children's category, too conservative on depth, not prominent enough in key store areas. Valuable insights captured, now we know how to grow the children's category even higher next back-to-school. Rogan's continues to exceed expectations. August sales and product margin growth surpassed the metrics we set. Our response was decisive. Finished the rebanner process at all Rogan's locations to Shoe Station this year. The station model works, the economics are proven. Wisconsin becomes our next Shoe Station stronghold to expand from. Let me address Carnival directly as transparency here is important. Carnival Q2 comps declined high single digits, though we saw sequential improvement from Q1 and sharp improvement at quarter end as back-to-school began. August showed further progress, delivering low single-digit declines, with growth in children's categories and solid athletic performance. The sub-$30,000 income consumer faces ongoing pressure. While we could pursue more aggressive promotions to drive traffic, we believe maintaining margin discipline is the right long-term decision versus propping up this customer segment, we are strategically shifting away from. We're managing the Carnival banner as a cash generator during our transition to Shoe Station. Over each upcoming quarter, Carnival's percentage of our portfolio declined systematically. By back-to-school 2026, it will represent less than 49% of our company. This deliberate shift reduces our exposure to a more volatile consumer segment while we diversify our customer base by building our premium banner. Our financial position gives us advantages many competitors do not have. As of fiscal August end, cash and securities are up double digits year-over-year at nearly $150 million, debt is zero. While others navigate covenants and credit lines, we invest from strength. We are investing approximately $25 million this year in our rebanner strategy with an expected 2- to 3-year ROI payback, a strong payback model and currently our highest profit return for our cash flow. We continue to evaluate acquisitions in a disciplined fashion. Our aim is to elevate our customer demographics, expand into new markets and do so at a fair valuation. As announced after the Q1 call, I asked Kerry Jackson to return to my executive leadership team. Kerry's 35 years with the company and over 25 years as our CFO is a great asset to have back by my side. I'm excited about this extra horsepower supporting our strategic growth initiatives. On inventory, yes, we're heavy. This is strategy reflecting the macroeconomic volatility, not accident. Our intentional inventory investment delivered sharply improved in-stock rates on key items during back-to-school versus last year. When demand spiked in August, we captured it and drove comp sales growth with accretive margins. That availability at a lower cost basis was a key element that drove our margin expansion and our Q2 earnings beat. We expect to normalize inventory levels in 2026, with completion timing dependent on tariffs and supply chain clarity. But understand this, with our balance sheet and our margin profile, carrying extra inventory that's selling profitably is a luxury problem. We'd rather have it and sell it than miss the sale entirely. Looking forward, our confidence is building on multiple fronts. Our rebanner strategy is delivering strong sales and margin growth. Gross profit margins are robust and on pace to exceed our high-side guidance, given current trends. We tightened sales guidance to reflect Station's and Rogan's growth in Carnival's reality. Overall, we raised our annual EPS guidance range to reflect the Q2 profit beat and fiscal August comp growth results. Importantly, we can see the inflection point approaching. When Station hits 51% of our fleet next year, the math flips. Station growth begins to overtake Carnival decline, median income customers overtake deep discount shoppers as our core. I'll now turn the call over to Patrick to walk through the detailed financials and updated outlook. Patrick?
Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Let me provide additional detail on our second quarter and back-to-school financial performance and our updated fiscal 2025 outlook. Starting with our Q2 and August sales results, second quarter net sales were $306.4 million compared to $332.7 million in the prior year. The 7.9% change reflects our strategic focus on higher-margin business as we transform our customer mix and banner portfolio. Our 7.5% comparable store sales decline includes approximately 100 basis points of impact from the 20 rebanners we completed this quarter. The divergent performance by banner in the quarter reinforces our rebanner strategy. Shoe Station sales grew 1.6% with essentially flat comparable store sales. Through August year-to-date, Station rebanner comps are now up high single digits. In Q2, Shoe Carnival sales declined 10.1%, as we maintain pricing discipline despite pressure on the low-income consumer. Shoe Carnival's high single-digit comp decline in the quarter was the main driver of our overall comparable store sales decrease. Rogan delivered approximately $20 million in net sales, in line with our integration plans. Let me now provide some additional color on our performance by major footwear category during August, our highest stakes month of the year. Total company comparable growth was achieved with mid-singles growth in children's and low singles growth in athletics. Shoe Station far outperformed the total company, achieving high singles growth in children's and low 20s growth in men's and women's athletics. Total company men's and women's non-athletics declined low singles, reflecting the strong athletic cycle we are in, with Station also in the low singles, outperforming Carnival. Now moving on to gross profit. Our gross profit margin of 38.8% represents a 270 basis point expansion versus last year. Let me break this down. Merchandise margins improved 390 basis points, driven by three factors: disciplined pricing strategy across all banners, favorable mix shift as Shoe Station grows and strategic inventory investments that improved in-stock rates. This more than offset 120 basis points of deleverage in buying, distribution and occupancy costs. SG&A expenses were $93.6 million or 30.6% of sales compared to 27.1% last year. Approximately 200 basis points of this increase relates to our rebanner investments, with the remainder due to deleverage, partially offset by disciplined cost management. Our effective tax rate in the quarter was 25.9% versus 26.3% last year. Net income was $19.2 million or $0.70 per diluted share compared to $22.6 million or $0.82 last year. Our Q2 2025 earnings with $0.21 of rebanner investments and otherwise exceeded the prior year by $0.09. Turning to our balance sheet and cash flow. We ended the quarter with $91.9 million in cash and marketable securities, up from $84.5 million last year. Following our strong August performance, cash and securities exceeded $148 million, up over 10% versus prior year, and we continue to operate debt-free. Inventory at quarter end was $449 million, up 5% versus last year. This strategic investment delivered the product availability that drove our margin expansion and positive comps during back-to-school. Year-to-date, capital expenditures totaled $24.4 million, with approximately $20 million funding our 44 rebanner conversions. Let me provide more detail on our rebanner economics. The $0.21 second quarter EPS impact includes store closure costs, 4 to 6 weeks of lost sales during conversion, additional depreciation, customer acquisition costs and grand opening expenses. Year-to-date, we've absorbed $0.36 of EPS impact. We now expect approximately $0.70 for the full year or about $25 million in operating income impact. Given the margin increases and high single-digit comp lifts we are achieving, these investments are a compelling use of our resources. Now turning to our updated fiscal 2025 outlook. Based on our second quarter outperformance and positive August momentum, we are raising several key metrics. Net sales guidance is now $1.12 billion to $1.15 billion, tightened from our previous range. This implies significant sequential improvement in the back half, with comparable store sales improving from down high single digits in Q2 to down low single digits in the back half of the year. This improvement reflects a growing Shoe Station mix and strong event period performance, including August positive comparable sales. We're raising the EPS guidance range from $1.70 to $2.10, increasing the low end by $0.10. This reflects our Q2 beat and confidence in sustained margin expansion. The wide EPS range reflects macro uncertainty and expected traffic volatility outside key selling periods. Gross profit margin guidance increases 150 basis points to 36.5% to 37.5%, reflecting the structural margin improvement from rebanners and disciplined pricing. SG&A is expected to be $355 million to $360 million, including the increased rebanner investment. Capital expenditures are expected to be $45 million to $55 million, with $30 million to $35 million for rebanners. For the third quarter specifically, we expect net sales of $290 million to $300 million and EPS of $0.50 to $0.55. In closing, we are successfully evolving our business mix toward higher-margin categories and customers. Our rebanner investments are generating strong returns, and our balance sheet provides the flexibility to execute our rebanner strategy while remaining opportunistic on acquisitions.
Before opening for Q&A, let me briefly summarize where we are. We delivered $0.70 EPS in Q2, beating expectations by over 20%, with gross margins at 38.8%, our highest Q2 margin in years. That 270 basis point expansion came from strategic choices that are working. We increased our annual EPS guidance range today, reflecting the Q2 beat and fiscal August results. Fiscal August delivered something significant. We achieved positive comparable sales growth during back-to-school, our highest stakes period. Shoe Station grew sales high single digits, Carnival delivered positive children comps, Rogan grew sales and margins while being rebannered. Every banner contributed when it mattered most. Our rebanner strategy is working. Station outperformed Carnival merchandise sales by over 10% in Q2 and fiscal August. Product margin resulting from our rebanner strategy expanded nearly 300 basis points. We'll operate 145 Shoe Station stores by year-end, on track for majority Shoe Station by next back-to-school. We set out to build a company that serves median-income families with better brands and better experiences. The company is no longer a concept. It's operating, it's growing, and it's delivering. With that, Patrick, Tanya, and I would be happy to take your questions. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.
Your first question comes from the line of Mitch Kummetz with Seaport Research Partners.
Going to be a handful. First of all, Mark, I'm curious on the second quarter. Your sales came a little below plan, but obviously, your gross margins were well ahead of plan. You talked about prioritizing margin dollars. I'm just curious, is there something about the quarter that was a bit unexpected? Or did you kind of change your priorities in the quarter in order to kind of achieve the results that you did that were a bit different than what you kind of laid out three months ago?
Mitch, thanks for the question. I think the opportunistic buys and additional inventory that the team brought in performed better than we expected. We captured success at a lower cost basis and strength at a higher-margin run first. Second, the Shoe Station performance continues to accelerate. And as that grows towards a higher percent of our mix, that's helping us drive our margins higher than we expected. And third, we continue to see competitors do irrational things related to pricing, and we believe that's not the strategy for us. We've stayed true while others were doing very aggressive profit dilutive activities before back-to-school. We stayed true and steady to our focus of where we're going to be, ready to deliver growth when the customer is ready to shop profitably during back-to-school. And it delivered, with comparable growth coming in Q3 right away as soon as back-to-school started. It was an exciting period of time.
Mitch, thanks for the question. Yes, there's a little bit more detail that we can provide on our third quarter results. First, our sales, the $290 million to $300 million range that we've given is down 2 to down 5. So midpoint somewhere in the 3% range, similar to our annual guide in the back half of the year. We don't have any meaningful difference in stores, so our comp would be very similar to our total sales on that front. With respect to margin, we earned 36% in the quarter last year. We would expect a number that is 100 to 150 basis points above that in Q3 this year. So targeting a number of like 37% to 37.5% would be the thought process. SG&A, I think the best way to think about that is a pure number that is $95 million. So consistent with what we spent in Q2, which was about $94 million.
That's very helpful. As a follow-up, it seems like August has started off strongly for the third quarter. Could you share your expectations for the remainder of the quarter to achieve sales down by 2 to 5 percent?
Sure. That's a straightforward assessment for us. The lower end of our range at $290 million assumes comparable sales and total sales declines in the high singles, which aligns with what we've observed in the first half of the year. On the low end, we anticipate a number that remains relatively flat. However, the midpoint indicates a 3% decline, reflecting a significant improvement compared to our performance in the first half of the year.
Yes. I think that comes back to our margin integrity and not chasing traffic gains at any cost for that sub-$30,000 household. We're seeing the competitive set go after that low-income strapped household with very aggressive pricing activity that's eroding margins and delivering different outcomes than we just put up, let's say, our 270 basis point growth in Q2. That was discipline. We think that's the right thing as we're strategically moving away from that sub-$30,000 households.
You mentioned that once Shoe Station reaches 51% of your store base, the model lift will occur around the middle of next year. Does this imply that the impact of the rebannering will be neutral for next year’s earnings, with any drag in the first half balanced by a boost in the latter half? How should we interpret this? Although you're not providing guidance for next year yet, could you provide some intuitive insights on this?
I can give you broad strokes. As you said, we're not ready to provide the full financial thought on it. But you've got it right. We believe when we hit 51% of our fleet is operating at Shoe Station, next back-to-school, we start seeing sustained comp positive versus a sporadic, which we're delivering now in key event periods. We think about it in our early planning that the back half of next year is where we start showing a comp positive for the total corporation, for the Q3, Q4 period. Shoe Carnival will still represent a significant percent, and we still expect that will be a headwind from that lower-income customer. So we're not anticipating high or mid-single-digit comp in the back half of the year. But rather, it turns an inflection point to low singles, just barely comp. But that's something to build on as we continue to transition. Financially, we're not really ready to share broader thoughts on that beyond that comp directional concept. And the rebannering fact of a significant amount in the guide would be rebannered in Q1 and Q2. And those financial implications, we'll provide more guidance as we get further along this year.
Your next question comes from the line of Sam Poser with Williams Trading.
A couple of mine. I'd like to talk to you about the inventory levels and the gross margin guidance and get some color on maybe where inventories are at the end of August. And just looking at the 3Q guidance and the gross margin guidance there, it looks like you'll sell $60 million, $70 million of cost of goods in August, give or take, you have $449 million of inventory on hand. How do you keep the gross margin guidance as high as it is with all this inventory? Doesn't the rubber have to hit the road sometime?
It's Tanya. To address your question about inventory at the end of August, we ended up in a similar position to where we were at the end of Q2, with inventory levels in the mid-singles. We made a strategic decision to build our inventory in preparation for back-to-school, which contributed to our comp growth in August. Additionally, we seized some opportunistic buys that are included in that inventory, which we expect to carry until spring 2026. Specifically, we increased our inventory in sandals and those opportunistic purchases for 2026. We also have extra inventory in the athletic segment, particularly in kids' athletics, as this was built up for back-to-school, again supporting our comp growth in August. All of this inventory consists of key items and high-margin styles that will last throughout the season. While we acknowledge that our inventory is higher than we'd prefer, this was a strategic move aimed at enhancing margin opportunities and growth as we progress through the third quarter and the rest of the year. Regarding margins, Mark mentioned it earlier, but we continue to see improvements thanks to our opportunistic buys and disciplined pricing strategy, which we will maintain for the remainder of the year. We are also in a stronger position with our key items this year than ever before.
Just a follow-up. So we know the inventory value was $449 million. That’s a concrete figure that gives us insight into the situation. Can you clarify what that number is? I'm uncertain, since the mid-single-digit increase year-over-year is vague. Is it now higher or lower than $449 million? Considering you had a strong August, could it now be at $420 million? The important aspect is the actual number, not just the increase. We need to focus on the future rather than the past.
Sam, it's Mark. We aren't providing an interim inventory figure yet because we haven't closed the books for that. However, we are pleased to report that sales are finalized for fiscal August, and we are excited to share the overall growth and margins for the back-to-school season, along with category information. Regarding inventory, as I mentioned earlier, we currently have an excess. Tanya also noted that we feel confident about achieving strong margins as we navigate through the fall season, spring season, and key items. Looking ahead to next year, once we have clearer insights into the supply chain and tariffs, we will focus on normalizing inventory levels. We do not anticipate margin erosion to be a concern in this fiscal year, and we believe that product margins will remain stable next year. It's a solid product.
Okay. I have a quick question. Will we see Jordan products for Spring '26? Considering that Shoe Carnival's business is experiencing a decline in high single digits, can we conclude that brands like Birkenstock and Skechers may have performed better or possibly increased, while the drop is primarily due to low-end and moderate non-branded products? Even lower-income customers seem to prefer those high-demand brands.
Yes, I'm going to grab that, Sam. We're not going to share with our competitors what new products are coming in. I have great confidence. We have outstanding exciting brands that will be on our sales floor in early 2026, but I'm not going to share what those are with our competitive set to think about that. On the second part of that question, our higher ticket items, best brands in the world, whether that's a footbed or an athletic in performance, performing outstanding. We've seen those drive the results, we're seeing those lead to capturing the higher-income customer, to delivering sales growth, to delivering margin growth. Without a doubt it's tight focus on the best brands in select segments and not private label. It's been a winning recipe for us being a retailer and not a manufacturer, and we're seeing that play out incredibly well at this point of time. While others navigate their covenants and manufacturing, we just stay focused on buying the world's best brands and delivering margin growth.
Lastly, how are the brands generally responding to price changes? What trends are you observing with price increases for the rest of this year and into next year, particularly concerning the tariff effects from your wholesale partners?
Sam, just recently, it had been a little quiet because we're on a pause, a 90-day pause with China right now. So China at 30%. But when they came back with the Vietnam with the additional 10, so it was 10 on top of 10, we're starting to get some more increases there. So as we move into spring, we're looking at price increases between 5% and 7% in total based on what we've gotten back thus far.
There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back over to Mark Worden for closing remarks.
Thank you all for joining us for our second quarter call. We're excited about the progress we're seeing with our growth strategy and look forward to discussing it in greater depth with you at our Q3 call later this year.
That concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect.