Earnings Call Transcript - SHOO Q4 2020

Operator, Operator

Thanks, Dmitris, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2020 earnings call and webcast. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that during our call, we may make certain forward-looking statements as defined in the federal securities laws regarding our expectations or predictions about the future. Generally, these statements relate to projections involving anticipated revenues, earnings or other aspects of the company's operating results. Because these statements are based on current assumptions and expectations, they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and factors not within the company's control. And as such, our actual performance and results may differ materially from these statements. Our annual report and other reports filed with the SEC from time to time include detailed discussions of the risks the company faces, and we urge you to refer to these. Specifically, the COVID-19 pandemic has had and is currently having a significant impact on the company's business operations and results. Such forward-looking statements with respect to the COVID-19 pandemic include, without limitation, statements with respect to the company's plans and response to this pandemic. At this time, there is still significant uncertainty about the duration and extent of the impacts of the pandemic. Due to the dynamic nature of these circumstances, statements made on this call regarding the company's response to the COVID-19 pandemic could change at any time. Any forward-looking statements represent our judgment as of the time of this call and cannot be relied upon as current after today's date. We disclaim any intent or obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required under applicable law. The financial results discussed are on an adjusted basis, unless otherwise noted. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in our earnings release. Joining the call today are Ed Rosenfeld, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Zine Mazouzi, Chief Financial Officer. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ed.

Edward Rosenfeld, CEO

Thanks, Danielle. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to review Steve Madden's fourth quarter and full year 2020 results. While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a negative impact on our business, we were pleased with our results in the fourth quarter, which exceeded our expectations and showed strong sequential improvement from the third quarter. Overall, 2020 was, in many ways, the most challenging year in our company's history, but we relied on our strengths and agile business model, a strong balance sheet and our talented and resourceful employees to successfully navigate the crisis. We continued investing in our brands and our digital capabilities while reducing expenses in other areas, and we utilized our test-and-react strategy and speed-to-market capability to quickly adjust our product mix to align with changing consumer preferences. We also made significant progress on our ESG initiatives. Let me briefly touch on the highlights. First and foremost, our top priority since the crisis began has been protecting the safety and well-being of our employees and the broader community. And I'm proud of the steps we took to safeguard the health of our employees and our customers, including proactively closing our stores earlier and keeping them closed longer than most of our peers and how we supported our communities through donations of medical-grade masks to hospitals, non-medical face coverings to homeless shelters, meals for healthcare workers, financial assistance for organizations combating hunger and more. Second, when the severe impact of COVID-19 became clear, we moved quickly to implement a number of measures to preserve liquidity and enhance financial flexibility, including suspending dividends and share repurchases, cutting operating expenses, capital expenditures and inventory receipts and putting in place a new $150 million asset-based revolving credit facility. While some of the expense savings were temporary in nature, a meaningful portion will have an ongoing benefit, including $25 million in annual savings from the restructuring we implemented in July and $14 million of rent expense savings in 2021 compared to 2019. Overall, these actions enabled us to generate strong free cash flow through the crisis, and we ended 2020 with no debt and $287 million in cash and short-term investments. Based on our strong financial position, we announced today that the company's Board of Directors approved the reinstatement of our quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share, and we also plan to resume share repurchases in future periods. Third, we also took swift action to address the rapidly changing marketplace. In terms of product, we utilized our test-and-react strategy and industry-leading speed-to-market capability to quickly adjust our merchandise assortments to align with changed consumer preferences, successfully leaning into more casual and comfortable styles while deemphasizing dressier products. And with respect to distribution, we significantly accelerated our digital commerce initiatives, increasing investment in that area even as we pulled back spending in other parts of the business. We added high-level talent to the organization, invested in our data science capabilities, ramped up digital marketing spend, launched our new try-before-you-buy payment option, rolled out buy online, pick-up in store to all U.S. full-price retail stores, introduced new enhanced delivery and return options and more. Overall, our company-operated e-commerce revenue grew nearly 50% in 2020 on top of 58% growth last year, including 55% growth in our Steve Madden e-commerce business on top of a 51% increase in the prior year. Importantly, company-operated e-commerce profit margins also expanded meaningfully for the third year in a row. And fourth, the challenges we all faced in 2020 emphasized to us our responsibility to all our stakeholders and the opportunity we have to create positive change for our people and our communities. In addition to the COVID-19 relief efforts I mentioned earlier, we made donations to Black Lives Matter, the NAACP, the Trevor Project and more. And in December, we announced a partnership with the Fearless Fund to provide 50 women of color entrepreneurs free enrollment to their 12-month Get Ready Venture program, which provides training and mentorship to build the knowledge and skills needed to gain access to capital. We also made progress in lessening our environmental impact by, among other things, introducing new Steve Madden shoe boxes that are 100% recyclable; partnering with industry trade group, FDRA, on a pre-consumer waste management project; piloting a new shoe takeback program in our stores; and increasing the use of recycled and renewable materials in products across our business. This spring, we're excited to be launching COOL PLANET by Steve Madden, a new brand offering fashion footwear using recycled, renewable and other environmentally-preferred materials. For every pair of COOL PLANET shoes sold, we will plant a tree in partnership with One Tree Planted, a nonprofit organization dedicated to reforestation efforts around the world. Overall, we are committed to meaningful and measurable improvement in the impacts we have and to being transparent about our actions. In July, we published our first sustainability report, which outlines our overall corporate social responsibility roadmap and how we intend to ensure that CSR and sustainability are embedded in everything we do going forward. And we look forward to updating you on our progress when we publish our next report later this year. Overall, our company was tested like never before in 2020, and I couldn't be prouder of how our teams responded and all they were able to accomplish. As we look to 2021, our focus remains on creating trend-right products and getting it to market quickly, deepening connections with our consumers through enhanced marketing, driving our digital commerce agenda, expanding in international markets like Europe where we have strong momentum and lots of runway, and efficiently managing our inventory and our expenses, all while working to create positive change for our people and our communities. And while we are cautious on the near-term outlook due to continued headwinds from COVID-19, we are confident that the steps we have taken during the crisis combined with the strength of our brands and our business model leave us well-positioned to capitalize on market share opportunities and create value for our stakeholders over the long term. I would now like to introduce Zine Mazouzi, who became our Chief Financial Officer on January 1. Zine has been a key member of our executive team since the beginning of 2018 when he joined us as Chief Accounting Officer and Senior Vice President of Finance and Operations. His strong financial, operational and leadership experience, combined with his deep understanding of footwear accessories and retail, make him a tremendous asset as we drive toward an accelerated recovery and a return to profitable and sustainable growth. I also want to thank Arvind Dharia, who was our CFO for the past 28 years, and congratulate him on his retirement from that role. Arvind was instrumental in building Steve Madden into the company it is today, and I am extraordinarily grateful for his partnership over the past 15 years that we worked together. I also want to thank Arvind for agreeing to serve the company in an advisory capacity through the end of 2021. With that, I'll turn it over to Zine to review our fourth quarter and full year 2020 financial results in more detail.

Zine Mazouzi, CFO

Thanks, Ed, and good morning, everyone. I would like to start off by saying that it has been a great pleasure to be a part of the Steve Madden team over the last couple of years. I'm excited and honored to take on my new role as CFO and look forward to meeting and connecting with many of you as the year unfolds. Turning to our results. In the fourth quarter, our consolidated revenue decreased 15.9% to $353 million compared to prior year revenue of $419.6 million. Our wholesale business declined 16.2% to $263 million compared to $313.8 million in the prior year period. Wholesale footwear decreased 19.7% to $187.3 million, and wholesale accessories and apparel declined 5.9% to $65.7 million. While COVID-19-related impacts clearly continue to pressure this business, we were pleased with the sequential improvement compared to the third quarter. In our retail segment, revenue decreased 14.9% to $86.1 million as our brick-and-mortar business remained under significant pressure during the quarter. However, our strong e-commerce momentum continued with revenue increasing 36%, including 51% growth in our Steve Madden e-commerce business. We ended the quarter with 218 company-operated retail stores, including 66 outlets and 7 e-commerce sites as well as 17 company-operated concessions in international markets. Due to local government orders, we had to reclose 1/3 of our stores during the fourth quarter. As of today, approximately 34% of our stores in Canada remain closed, but the balance of our stores worldwide have reopened. Although our operation remained reduced by approximately 25% on average. Turning to our licensing and First Cost segments. Our license and royalty income, which is now included in total revenue, was $3 million in the quarter compared to $3.1 million in last year's fourth quarter. First Cost commission income, which is also now included in total revenue, was $0.9 million in the quarter compared to $1.6 million in last year's fourth quarter. Consolidated gross margin in the quarter increased 40 basis points to 38.2% compared to 37.8% in the prior year. Wholesale gross margin declined 90 basis points to 28.3% compared to 29.2% last year due to the closeout of excess inventory resulting from store shutdowns and order cancellations earlier in the year. Retail gross margin rose 400 basis points to 65.6% compared to 61.6% in Q4 last year as we saw higher margins in both e-commerce and stores, primarily due to less discounting. Operating expenses for the quarter decreased 13.2% to $109.2 million compared to $125.7 million in last year's fourth quarter, reflecting the company's expense control measures. Operating income for the quarter totaled $25.6 million or 7.3% of revenue compared to last year's fourth quarter operating income of $33 million or 7.9% of revenue. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 13.3% compared to 6.3% in the same period last year. Finally, net income attributable to Steve Madden Limited for the quarter was $21.8 million or $0.27 per diluted share compared to net income of $32.2 million or $0.39 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2019. Now I would like to briefly touch on full year results. Total revenue for 2020 decreased 32.8% to $1.2 billion from $1.8 billion in the prior year. Net income attributable to Steve Madden Limited was $51.8 million, $0.64 per diluted share for the year ended December 31, 2020, compared to $162.8 million or $1.95 per share for the year ended December 31, 2019. Moving to the balance sheet, our foundation remains strong. And as of December 31, 2020, we had $287.2 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments and no debt. Inventory totaled $101.4 million, down 26% compared to the prior year figure of $136.9 million. Our CapEx in the quarter was $1.1 million. As Ed mentioned, the company's Board of Directors reinstated a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share. The dividend will be payable on March 26, 2021, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on March 16, 2021. Looking forward, while we are confident in our long-term positioning and optimistic about our prospects as conditions normalize, we are cautious on the near-term outlook due to headwinds that include supply chain disruption, higher freight costs, the nonrenewal of GSP, store closures and reduced store traffic and hours of operation. In particular, we expect supply chain disruption, primarily related to congestion and slowdowns at the ports, to negatively impact Q1 revenue by approximately $30 million. Including this impact, we currently expect Q1 wholesale revenue to decrease high-single digits and retail revenue to increase mid-single digits on a percentage basis compared to last year's first quarter. Given the continued uncertainty related to the COVID-19 pandemic, we're not providing full year revenue and earnings guidance at this time.

Operator, Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Erinn Murphy with Piper Sandler.

Erinn Murphy, Analyst

I guess my first question, Ed, it's for you, on your e-commerce business, it sounds like you've made a lot of progress on the margins. Could you just kind of remind us where they compare to the overall business today? And then maybe taking a step back, how big is your e-com business today? And does the growth prospects kind of influence or change your views on kind of an appropriate physical footprint over time? And then I've got a couple of follow-ups.

Edward Rosenfeld, CEO

Sure. Yes. We're really pleased with the progress we've made in improving the profitability of the owned and operated e-commerce business. We've had pretty substantial increases each of the last few years. I think we were up about 350 basis points in 2020 over 2019, and so that business now is contributing in the high teens in terms of profit. Now of course, that excludes any corporate allocation, but the contribution of that business itself, again, in the high teens, and we think that there's potential for further expansion in '21 and beyond. In terms of the size of the business overall, it's about $133 million in 2020, the owned and operated e-commerce business. And yes, certainly, I think all of us are reevaluating our physical footprint in light of the growth of e-commerce overall. I still think stores certainly have a place, and I think that we do see the benefits of the omnichannel model and how the stores and e-commerce work together to serve our consumers. But I do think we'll have to continue to evaluate how many stores we need going forward as the e-commerce business continues to grow.

Erinn Murphy, Analyst

Great. That's super helpful. And then I guess my second question is around your wholesale business and kind of what you're seeing from your key retailers thus far in spring. I'm just curious if you can give us any color around the order book or what's kind of trending right now in terms of the footwear side of your business? And then if you could just dig a little bit more into the supply chain disruptions, how long could that be with us as we look forward over the next 3 to 6 months? Is that kind of the time frame you're thinking about some of the pressure there?

Edward Rosenfeld, CEO

Sure. I think, as we discussed in the last call, retailers planned their businesses down for spring 2021 compared to 2019. We mentioned a decline of about 15% to 20% overall. Following that, we experienced a significant surge in COVID, which likely pushed those plans down a bit further, possibly closer to a 20% decline. The main issue at the moment is the supply chain disruption, which is quite challenging. There are various areas within the supply chain experiencing difficulties, with the biggest being congestion at the ports. We're seeing lead times extended by an average of 3 to 4 weeks. For a company like ours, which operates on a just-in-time inventory model, this situation is quite challenging and is having an impact. As Zine mentioned in the prepared remarks, we anticipate about a $30 million revenue impact in Q1 due to the supply chain disruption, primarily affecting our wholesale business.

Camilo Lyon, Analyst

Following up on the supply chain discussion, Ed, how do we assess the impact on Q2, which usually involves more reordering for you? What does this delay mean, and how does it transition from Q1 into Q2? How do we view that influencing your business? Additionally, I'd like to hear your thoughts on whether this affects your design timelines, considering the expectation of returning to social events in the latter half of this year. Are you beginning to plan assortments aimed at dress and going-out footwear, or are you waiting for order patterns to clarify before making those plans?

Edward Rosenfeld, CEO

Yes. In terms of how the supply chain disruption affects the second quarter, we believe that a significant portion of the goods meant for wholesale customers in March will instead be delivered in Q2. There is some advantage as we see shipments moving out. However, we rely heavily on reorder business in Q2, and we still don't know how long these disruptions will last or if products scheduled for June might be delayed until July. We'll continue to monitor the situation. Regarding product mix, we expect that as fall approaches, more people will be going out, attending events, dinners, and concerts. We need to assess where we stand at that time, but it should be an improvement from the current situation. One positive note is that we've observed unexpectedly strong sell-through for some of our dress styles, even though they make up a smaller portion of our overall mix. The demand is there, and I believe we remain a go-to destination for that market. As this segment of the business recovers, we feel well-positioned.

Camilo Lyon, Analyst

Great. And then if you can just give us some shape to how we should expect to see the gross margin line unfold, understanding that there's probably more costs from a supply chain perspective that are going to hit in Q1 and maybe into Q2? And help us understand how we should think about the turn on of higher-priced goods, maybe more boots and booties and dress shoes in the back half as the recovery takes hold?

Edward Rosenfeld, CEO

We are not providing specific guidance at this time, but when considering the first half of the year in comparison to last year, it's important to note that last year we had significant inventory reserves due to shutdowns, which negatively affected our gross margins. We do not expect to have to deal with that again. However, there are still considerable challenges to gross margin in the first half of this year. One major factor is the supply chain disruptions that you mentioned, along with rising freight rates, which are also a concern. Additionally, the nonrenewal of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) is impacting us, especially since we produce over half of our handbags in Cambodia. This is a notable concern for our accessories margin. We hope that by the second half of the year, these challenges will be resolved.

Janine Stichter, Analyst

Thanks for all the color on the gross margin. I wanted to dig a little bit more into the retail gross margin. You've been playing back on those promotions for some time now, so curious if that's something you still see ongoing opportunity for? And then maybe if you could just comment on the inventory in the channel. I think it's been very lean and maybe even a little bit too lean for a while now, how you see that unfolding as the year progresses and how you think that impacts the broader promotional environment?

Edward Rosenfeld, CEO

Yes, we've had a positive experience being less promotional in our retail segment, which applies to both our e-commerce and store businesses, and this trend has continued into the first quarter. I expect to see further gross margin improvements in that segment early in the year, although the rate of improvement may slow down as we progress through the year and anniversary some of those earlier gains. Regarding inventory levels, especially considering our brands, the inventory in the channel is currently low. A significant reason for this is the supply chain disruptions we are experiencing. It's frustrating because we have some spring styles that we are very excited about, and customers are responding well to them. Our sneakers are performing exceptionally, and we also have flat sandals and dress sandals with oversized embellishments that customers are enjoying. However, we are struggling to get enough of these products into our stores and online due to these supply chain issues.

Janine Stichter, Analyst

Okay. Great. And then on the wholesale gross margin, just wanted to clarify, was the disposal of the excess inventory, was that the entirety of the decline? And are you completely done with that now?

Edward Rosenfeld, CEO

Yes. We estimate that this accounted for approximately 120 basis points of gross margin pressure in wholesale. Overall, we were down 90, which summarizes the situation. There are a few minor issues, but that aspect is mostly behind us.

Laura Champine, Analyst

It's really on your early thoughts about the back half and maybe the easier to answer part of that is, how late can you set your plans for orders for inventory amounts for the back half leading into holiday? And what are your initial thoughts on what we can expect for demand patterns?

Edward Rosenfeld, CEO

It's a good question. There's still a lot of uncertainty due to COVID-19, how quickly the vaccine is distributed, and the effects on shopping behavior. We're definitely planning for the second half to show healthier demand compared to the first half, but we're still aligning our plans with 2019 levels. We believe that when looking at 2019, the majority of our wholesale customers are preparing for fall business to be down compared to that year, with a wide range of expectations. Some are planning for only a modest decline, while others are anticipating a drop of 15% to 20%, so there's quite a range. This is an overall estimate and not specific to our business with them. Conversely, in our retail segment, I think that due to the strength of our owned and operated e-commerce, we can expect to perform better than 2019 in the second half.

Camilo Lyon, Analyst

Are you ready for a potential increase in demand for fashion footwear? How late can we effectively introduce products for the holiday season if we see some growth compared to 2019?

Edward Rosenfeld, CEO

I believe we excel at this more than anyone else. The hallmark of our company has always been our speed to market and our ability to quickly respond to identified trends. Particularly this fall, we are increasing our production out of Mexico, which enhances our speed to market even further. However, we are currently facing challenges with the supply chain, which is impacting our usual speed. I am optimistic that by fall, these issues will be resolved.

Samuel Poser, Analyst

I hope everyone is safe and well. What is the situation with airfreight? Also, could you provide some insights into how your direct-to-consumer business is performing so far this quarter?

Edward Rosenfeld, CEO

Yes. So look, in a normal environment, if we were having a lot of port congestion and slowdowns, we would probably be putting a lot more products on airplanes. But the challenge is, airfreight is up over 100% airfreight rates from where they were a year ago. And so we are flying some goods, but we have to be judicious about that as well, given how expensive that is right now. In terms of our retail business, so far this year, we are running positive to last year in our retail segment overall. So obviously, still negative in bricks-and-mortar, but very strong growth in our owned and operated e-commerce.

Samuel Poser, Analyst

When considering your e-commerce business for the full year, are you expecting another year of growth similar to what you experienced in 2021?

Edward Rosenfeld, CEO

We expect the strong momentum to continue and anticipate solid growth. However, we do expect the growth rate to slow down due to challenging comparisons from last year. Last year, there were times when our channel was the only one operational. As we expect the bricks-and-mortar business to recover somewhat, it will have a positive impact on our e-commerce business. Nonetheless, we should still see good growth.

Samuel Poser, Analyst

Okay. Lastly, can you provide the gross margin for wholesale footwear and accessories in the quarter?

Edward Rosenfeld, CEO

Sure. Yes. I don't think we did give that, but I'd be happy to. Let me just pull that up here. Wholesale footwear was 27.7%; wholesale accessories and apparel, 29.8%.

Samuel Poser, Analyst

In your revenue guidance for Q1, considering the wholesale revenue is down in the high singles, are you viewing footwear as being more affected than accessories, especially in light of the addition of your apparel business?

Edward Rosenfeld, CEO

I believe that the decline in footwear compared to the previous year will be slightly greater than that of wholesale accessories and apparel. This is mostly due to the fact that we have already seen the apparel business perform well. We have been positively surprised by our results in bags, with the private label bag business doing very well. Additionally, the Steve Madden handbag business is performing strongly, which is contributing to accessories and apparel outpacing shoes somewhat. Yes. We continue to keep our eyes and ears open. There's nothing to report at the moment, but it's certainly something that we're open to. And obviously, we have the balance sheet strength and the wherewithal to do something if we find the right opportunity.

Operator, Operator

At this time, there are no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Ed Rosenfeld.

Edward Rosenfeld, CEO

Great. Well, thank you, everybody, for joining us this morning. And I hope everyone stays healthy and safe, and we look forward to speaking with you on the next call. Have a great day.

Operator, Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.