Earnings Call Transcript - SJM Q1 2024

Operator, Operator

Good morning. And welcome to The J.M. Smucker Company’s Fiscal 2024 First Quarter Earnings Conference Question-and-Answer Session. This conference call is being recorded and all participants are in listen-only mode. Please limit yourselves to two questions and require if you have additional questions. I’ll now turn the conference over to Aaron Broholm, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Aaron Broholm, Vice President of Investor Relations

Good morning. And thank you for joining our fiscal 2024 first quarter earnings question-and-answer session. I hope everyone had a chance to review our results as detailed in this morning’s press release and management’s prepared remarks, which are available on our corporate website at jmsmucker.com. We will also post an audio replay of this call at the conclusion of this morning’s Q&A session. During today’s call, we may make forward-looking statements that reflect our current expectations about future plans and performance. These statements rely on assumptions and estimates, and actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Additionally, we use non-GAAP results to evaluate performance internally. I encourage you to read the full disclosure concerning forward-looking statements and details on our non-GAAP measures in this morning’s press release. Participating on this call are Mark Smucker, Chair of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tucker Marshall, Chief Financial Officer. We will now open up the call for questions. Operator, please queue up the first question.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our first question is coming from Andrew Lazar from Barclays.

Andrew Lazar, Analyst

I guess to start off, Mark, on the last earnings call, I think you mentioned that if we strip out Jif contract manufacturing and divestiture impacts, the Company expected about 4% organic sales growth, 3 points of which were expected to be volume on sort of a truly underlying basis for the full year. And I’m curious if this is broadly where you still see it today. And if so, maybe why the Company is not necessarily seeing the same sort of volume weakness the industry seems to be dealing with currently and as other sort of peer companies have discussed?

Tucker Marshall, CFO

Andrew, good morning, this is Tucker. You are correct. As you began to break down our 9% comparable growth guidance, that 4% does have 3 points of volume/mix growth, largely driven by Uncrustables, coffee, Milk-Bone, and Meow Mix, and then the 1 point of pricing, as you have noted.

Mark Smucker, CEO

Yes. Andrew, it’s Mark. Thanks for the question. I think as you look at our categories, we are in the right categories, which are resilient ones. And as we continue to share our story, we’ve gotten much more focused. We participate in categories that are growing, and we participate across the breadth of those categories, all the while still investing in our brands. So, we actually had, as you saw, a very good quarter of both sales and volume growth, and we expect the momentum to continue as we continue to invest, as we continue to execute with excellence, and I could cite multiple areas. I mean just peanut butter, as an example of an affordable protein, continuing to grow, getting Jif back into its number one share position. Milk-Bone is another example, where you’ve got products that span value to premium, really meeting the consumer where they need. And then last but not least, Uncrustables continues to be a strong growth engine for the Company. So just very pleased with the results this quarter and our outlook for the future.

Andrew Lazar, Analyst

Got it. Thank you for that. And then just lastly, pet sales growth was a bit below what we modeled. I guess I’m curious, how did it compare to your expectations? And if sales were a bit slower, I guess, what’s driving the weakness? And was it contract manufacturing-related or something else? Thank you.

Tucker Marshall, CFO

Andrew, we continue to see positive momentum in our pet portfolio. And any shortfall to expectations for the quarter would be attributable to the co-manufacturing agreement. And as we noted in our prepared remarks, we have revised our outlook for co-manufacturing for the full year to be $160 million, which is a $25 million decline than what we expected coming into the year. And that would have been the driver for the quarter.

Andrew Lazar, Analyst

Got it. What would cause the decline in the co-man sales?

Tucker Marshall, CFO

Yes. It would be what Post Holdings would need from their production standpoint as we support relocating products between manufacturing facilities and supporting volumes. So, it would just be what their expectation is in their network.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Peter Galbo from Bank of America.

Peter Galbo, Analyst

Maybe we could just start, I think there’s a bit of confusion this morning just around your reported comparable sales growth number, Tucker or Mark, of the 21%. And then, I believe on slide 4 of the supplement, it shows closer to 16%. So, I just wanted to be able to bridge that for folks. And maybe, Tucker, if you could just help, I think in the press release, you actually have the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation at the 21%. So, if we can talk through those as well as just where that comes in relative to what your expectations were for the quarter of the plus 20% that you would put out last quarter. Thanks.

Tucker Marshall, CFO

Peter, good morning. We delivered our quarter in line with our expectations. And let me break this down for you. On a reported basis, we were down 4%. But as you isolate the impact of the pet food divestiture, on a comparable sales basis, we would be up 21%. Embedded in that 21% is 11 points of Jif growth or restoration, primarily due to lapping the peanut butter recall. The second component would be the required co-manufacturing agreement or growth of 3 points. That leaves base business growth of 6.5 points for the quarter. And within that 6.5 points, we saw approximately 2.5 from a volume/mix standpoint and 4 points from net pricing.

Peter Galbo, Analyst

Okay. And just on the 16%, sorry, that’s on slide 4, Tucker, just again between that versus the 21% that you printed, just trying to understand the delta.

Tucker Marshall, CFO

Yes. It’s the math associated with the divestiture impact on a reported basis year-over-year.

Peter Galbo, Analyst

Got it. Okay. That’s helpful. And then, Mark, I think in your prepared comments, you spoke a bit about a reacceleration or planned reacceleration in Uncrustables growth from the quarter. Can you just kind of speak through the cadence of some of that over the course of the year and maybe just what we might be seeing from a track standpoint versus untracked as you push into some other channels like Canada?

Mark Smucker, CEO

Yes, sure, Peter. First of all, we’re really pleased with the Uncrustables growth. Keep in mind that we had a really strong Q1 last year, as well as we had a very strong prior quarter, which happened as a result of us really getting completely off allocation. So the momentum on Uncrustables is actually really strong, and we expect growth to continue to be around that 20-ish percent for the full year. What’s driving it is, of course, some expansion into new channels. I mean, Canada is so far very relatively small, but there’s great customer acceptance there, and some other expansion into Away From Home. But I think probably most notably is the fact that we have just a lot of runway on household penetration. If you look in my prepared remarks, just talking about peanut butter and jams and jellies being 3x the household penetration of Uncrustables. So there’s plenty of runway there. And we’re turning on advertising and other in-store activations. They are really, for the first time, going to start driving demand and pulling through the network. So, just very positive on Uncrustables still and expect to hit around $800 million for the year in sales.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Ken Goldman from JP Morgan.

Ken Goldman, Analyst

Just following up on your commentary that for the second quarter, like-for-like sales should be up mid-single digits and EPS up low single. Just as we think about modeling the quarter, are there any unusual tailwinds or headwinds to consider? I guess, how do we think about the specific cadence of your contract sales on pet for the quarter? Are there any lingering benefits from lapping the Jif recall that may bleed into Q2? Just wanted to get a sense of anything we should think about just as we’re modeling as precisely as we can.

Tucker Marshall, CFO

As you think about the second quarter, just reinforcing mid-single-digit top line, and that’s squarely mid-single-digit, low-single-digit bottom line. The first component that I would just acknowledge is that we did have a $0.16 over-delivery in the first quarter, which was largely SD&A-driven. So, the predominance of those expenses will begin to come back in the second quarter and then throughout the remainder of the fiscal year. And then, as you think through the balance of the portfolio, continued momentum of spreads with some Jif recovery coming into the second quarter, momentum on Uncrustables. The coffee category will continue to perform. And then in the pet segment, the co-manufacturing sales will probably be a little more evenly distributed across the second and third quarters with a slight slowdown in the fourth.

Ken Goldman, Analyst

Got it. That’s helpful. Thank you. And then just to follow up on your comment about SD&A. You previously guided, I think, to roughly even expense on that line item each quarter this year. Obviously, Q1 came in light. As we think about the next few quarters, should each of them be roughly the same? I guess, it’s around $355 million implied, or there might be a little bit more lumpiness as they sometimes, so?

Tucker Marshall, CFO

Ken, I’m just verifying, but I think your assumption is fair around the $355 million over the next three quarters.

Ken Goldman, Analyst

And should we just model that in evenly, barring any other information?

Tucker Marshall, CFO

Correct.

Operator, Operator

Next question is coming from Matt Smith from Stifel.

Matt Smith, Analyst

I wanted to ask about the pricing and inflation dynamic in U.S. Consumer Foods. I believe you said that on an underlying basis, pricing continued to lag inflation. So, can you talk about the outlook there and when you expect that dynamic to inflect in your pricing to more than offset current inflation?

Mark Smucker, CEO

Yes. I believe we are seeing pricing that offsets current inflation in our consumer foods sector. Overall, pricing across our business remains relatively stable. We still consider ourselves in an inflationary environment. We have adjusted our price points on coffee and passed some of that cost on to our customers and consumers. This will support coffee sales in the upcoming quarters as well. Overall, whether in consumer or across the business as a whole, we have managed to recover from inflation.

Matt Smith, Analyst

Okay. You mentioned that lower coffee prices are being passed on to consumers. Are there other areas of the business, not necessarily related to commodities, where you’re noticing competitors starting to lower their prices, indicating that things are becoming a bit more competitive?

Mark Smucker, CEO

A pretty short answer is generally no. We have not seen significant deflation across the industry.

Operator, Operator

Next question is coming from Pamela Kaufman from Morgan Stanley.

Pamela Kaufman, Analyst

Just wanted to dig into the coffee outlook a bit more. Can you talk about your strategy for coffee pricing this year given the favorability in coffee costs and how to think about the outlook for promotions versus potential list price changes? And I guess, generally, what are your expectations for segment growth? And how should we think about pricing versus volumes for the balance of the year?

Mark Smucker, CEO

Pam, I'll begin and Tucker may have some insights as well. We've seen a bit of relief in commodity prices, which has led us to adjust our pricing for several of our coffee brands. This adjustment has occurred this month and will start to positively impact the business moving forward. It's important to note that as we manage pricing, we aim to be careful. We believe it’s essential to reflect both price increases and decreases, using various strategies. Sometimes we adjust the list price, other times it's through trade practices, or we might fine-tune our pricing strategy, which is what we have done here. We anticipate this will benefit our coffee business in the future. However, beyond what I just mentioned, we can't make any predictions about future price movements at this time.

Pamela Kaufman, Analyst

And then, just on the pet segment. Can you talk a bit about what you’re seeing in the consumer behavior in the pet category? We’ve heard from some of your competitors that consumers are exhibiting increasing demand elasticity and some trade-down in pet, particularly when it comes to treating. Obviously, Milk-Bone sales were still strong in the quarter. So just curious to hear what you’re seeing in the dynamics in the category.

Mark Smucker, CEO

Yes, I can share that our strong quarter in pet snacks, particularly dog snacks, was driven by solid performance from Milk-Bone. Our growth can be attributed to the brand's presence across a wide spectrum of price points, from premium to more mainstream products. We've noticed a slight shift towards the standard Milk-Bone biscuit, while our premium products continue to perform well. Additionally, improvements in our supply chain for Meow Mix, specifically the original blend item, have helped it regain its position as the top-selling product. This indicates that our mainstream consumers are still actively purchasing it. Overall, we are very optimistic about the performance of our entire pet portfolio at this time.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is coming from Rob Dickerson from Jefferies.

Rob Dickerson, Analyst

Tucker, just first question for you. In the prepared remarks, you talk about the derivative instruments for the Post shares that are being divested. And it sounds like that cash inflow comes in Q3. And it seems like kind of your leverage is now and then with your incremental cash coming in, you could potentially be at 2 times net or lower maybe by the end of the fiscal year. That, by far, is the lowest you’ve been in like almost 10 years, I think. So I’m just curious kind of how you’re thinking about potential incremental capital deployment. And I realize you buy back stock and increase the dividend. But once you’re hitting 2 times or less, it seems like there could be incremental appetite, let’s say, for acquisitions. So just curious how you’re thinking about that. Thanks.

Mark Smucker, CEO

Rob, it’s Mark. We feel very positive about our balance sheet at the moment, which has been our goal from the start. Over the past couple of years, we have focused on refining our portfolio, but that doesn't mean we are not open to acquisitions. We are still very interested in pursuing them. The overall industry has been relatively quiet in terms of mergers and acquisitions, but we continue to explore opportunities. We hope that acquisitions will play a significant role in our growth narrative as we move forward.

Operator, Operator

Next question is coming from Jason English from Goldman Sachs.

Jason English, Analyst

Congrats on a strong start to the year.

Mark Smucker, CEO

Thank you.

Jason English, Analyst

A couple of questions for you. So the SG&A favorability looks like it was really corporate expense-related. What drove it? And why shouldn’t we take that to the bank and assume it’s going to be lower for the remainder of the year?

Tucker Marshall, CFO

Jason, we saw some favorability within SD&A on the marketing line of some of our distribution and operations support lines and then also within our traditional corporate functions of administrative support. And really what we have made the decision to do is to continue to support our brands. So, we have some incremental marketing that we’re contemplating in the next three quarters. And also, some of the expenses were timing-related. And so, those are coming back in the second quarter. So, we are not seeing SD&A favorability at this point in our fiscal year despite having seen it in our first quarter.

Jason English, Analyst

So I assume the timing was that corporate line because distribution is distribution. Marketing, that looks like it’s timing, right, because you’re holding the full year. Within corporate, what was the timing benefit this quarter? Because it was chunky. Your corporate was much lower than we expected.

Tucker Marshall, CFO

Yes. Just it had to do with various corporate items around accruals, incentives, timing of spend through various projects, and so on and so forth.

Jason English, Analyst

Thank you for the information. Now, regarding the coffee segment, the price has been weaker than anticipated and it seems likely to become deflationary based on your recent comments about the investment this month. Is that correct? Do you still anticipate that the segment will achieve organic growth despite the declining prices, especially since the industry appears to be shrinking with no volume growth? Additionally, with the price investment in mind, should we consider that returning to low-30s EBIT margins is unrealistic for this year?

Tucker Marshall, CFO

So Jason, maybe breaking this down, on a year-over-year basis, coffee should be flat to slightly down just due to deflation in the underlying green coffee. We are expecting a level of volume momentum for the portfolio on a year-over-year basis. We do see gross profit margin improvement year-over-year, as you have noted. And from a segment profit standpoint, we are spending back some of that gross profit improvement in the form of marketing and investments in liquid coffee and sustainability. And so, we would expect the segment profit margin to sort of be in the high-20s.

Operator, Operator

Next question today is coming from Max Gumport from BNP Paribas.

Max Gumport, Analyst

With regard to gross margin, you took up your full year guidance. It sounds like it was due to incremental cost favorability. I was wondering if you could give us any color on some of the drivers of that favorability you’re seeing and what the sources of the change were and how that might impact your assumptions around cadence for the next three quarters as well. Thank you.

Tucker Marshall, CFO

Max, good morning. As you noted, we came into our fiscal year with a gross profit margin guidance of 36.5% to 37%. We have now guided to a 37% outlook for the balance of the year. So on average, we’ve come up about 25 basis points. What gave us conviction in doing that was just seeing some cost favorability within total cost of goods sold. In areas where you have a level of commodities, you have a level of transportation, you may have some in the manufacturing and distribution environment. But it’s not significant. It’s just some level of cost improvement. As we think about the outlook for the balance of the year, that gross profit margin will improve in each of the next three quarters in order to get you to the 37% outlook for the full year, and it will be pretty consistent over Q2, Q3, and Q4.

Max Gumport, Analyst

Thanks. And turning back to the commentary on trade-down in pet. We’ve also been hearing some chatter about this dynamic and seeing it in the data as well. I’m curious what you think is driving this increased value-seeking behavior and how long you think it can persist. Thank you.

Mark Smucker, CEO

Matt, it’s Mark. I won’t speculate on the duration. I believe that as we have refined our portfolio to align with our strategy, pet snacks are truly our standout category. I touched on this earlier. Remember that as pet owners, we all feed our pets pet food, while pet snacks are somewhat more discretionary. However, it's important to note that consumers often treat their pets better than their children. Therefore, we are confident that the pet snacks, especially our dog snacks portfolio, will continue to perform well as we fulfill the varying needs of consumers from value to premium. We feel positive about the positioning of our portfolio in this area.

Operator, Operator

Next question is coming from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank.

Steve Powers, Analyst

I have a question regarding free cash flow. Since you've raised your outlook by $0.25, which suggests a reasonable increase, I would anticipate some flow-through to free cash flow, possibly around $25 million, that doesn't seem to be reflected. Could you elaborate on what’s influencing that? Thank you.

Tucker Marshall, CFO

Steve, we are seeing some incremental cash taxes as we had a strong finish to our last fiscal year as we continue to look through certain activities through this fiscal year. And that has really been the driver of the change of why we didn’t raise our free cash flow guidance.

Operator, Operator

Next question is coming from Robert Moskow from TD Cowen. Perhaps your phone is on mute, Robert.

Robert Moskow, Analyst

Can you hear me better?

Mark Smucker, CEO

Yes, Rob, welcome back.

Robert Moskow, Analyst

Yes. It's been a slow start. In your prepared remarks, you mentioned that demand for Meow Mix continues to exceed your capacity, and you're starting to replenish inventory. What is your plan to enhance capacity for Meow Mix? You indicated that in the second quarter, it seems you'll be growing at a rate above consumption. What steps are being taken at the plants to increase capacity to achieve this?

Mark Smucker, CEO

Rob, it’s Mark. We’re currently working on those efforts, focusing on productivity and ensuring that the plants are operating at their highest capacity. There will be some minor capital investments to ensure that the equipment is performing optimally. Essentially, it's centered around those aspects. We anticipate that the improvements will continue into the second quarter to meet the demand.

Robert Moskow, Analyst

Okay. Any unusual impact in the back half of the year, will this be an easy comparison in the back half, or will it be kind of like normal ship-to-consumption?

Mark Smucker, CEO

It should be normal.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I’d like to turn the floor back over for any further or closing comments.

Mark Smucker, CEO

Thank you. Thank you all for your time today for joining the call. We are really pleased with the positive start to our fiscal year. And of course, as we always say, our results were really made possible by our outstanding employees. So, I’d like to just take a moment to thank them for their hard work and dedication to the Company. We hope that many of you will be able to join us in Boston at the Barclays conference next week. A live webcast of our presentation on September 5th at 12:45 can also be accessed from our Investor Relations website. So, I hope to see you all there in person or virtually. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. That does conclude today’s teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.