Earnings Call
E.W. SCRIPPS Co (SSP)
Earnings Call Transcript - SSP Q4 2025
Operator, Operator
Thank you for joining us, and welcome to The E.W. Scripps Company's Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. I will now turn the call over to Carolyn Micheli, Head of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Carolyn Micheli, Head of Investor Relations
Thank you, Latif. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for a discussion of The E.W. Scripps Company's financial results and business strategies. You can visit scripps.com for more information and a link to the replay of this call. A reminder that our conference call and webcast include forward-looking statements based on management's current outlook, and actual results may differ materially. Factors that may cause them to differ are outlined in our SEC filings. We do not intend to update any forward-looking statements we make today. Included on this call will be a discussion of certain non-GAAP financial measures that are provided as supplements to assist management and the public in their analysis and valuation of the company. These metrics are not formulated in accordance with GAAP and are not meant to replace GAAP financial measures and may differ from other companies' uses or formulations. Reconciliations of these measures are included in our earnings release. We'll hear this morning from Chief Financial Officer, Jason Combs; and then Scripps' President and CEO, Adam Symson. Here's Jason.
Jason Combs, CFO
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. This marks our fourth consecutive quarter of reporting financial results that met or exceeded expectations on nearly every reporting line. Our growth strategies around network streaming distribution and Scripps Sports are helping us outpace local and national peer companies, supported by strong sales execution and disciplined expense management. I'll recap our fourth quarter 2025 results in a moment, but first, I wanted to touch on a few important activities we've undertaken since our last reporting period. On February 11, we announced a transformation plan to grow enterprise EBITDA by $125 million to $150 million by 2028. Our plan balances rightsizing our current expense structure with implementing new ways to grow revenue and profitability. The EBITDA improvement is one aspect of our larger company transformation plan, which Adam will discuss in a few minutes. You'll start to see the financial benefits of our plan in the second half of this year. We expect total in-year EBITDA impact of $20 million to $30 million and to go into 2027 with an annualized run rate of $60 million to $75 million. We expect the benefits to contribute to a significantly improved leverage ratio by year-end. This plan builds on the work we've already done to improve our division margins in recent years. In fact, for 2025, we exceeded our guidance for margin performance in the Scripps Networks division. We guided to 400 to 600 basis points of expansion over 2024 and delivered nearly 700 basis points. In the Local Media division, we kept expenses down despite new partnerships in valuable and growth-driving sports rights. In another strategic move to improve margins, we are exercising our option to reacquire 23 TV stations affiliated with ION that we had to divest when we bought the network 5 years ago. We anticipate the aggregate purchase price to be about $54 million. The transaction allows us to expand our already sizable spectrum holdings. After close, we will no longer be paying the owner of those stations affiliate fees. So acquiring these station assets will be immediately accretive to the Scripps Networks division segment profit and margins. We will seek waivers for the transaction under the FCC's current television station ownership rules. On February 9, we announced the sale of Court TV, which did not require regulatory approval and closed on that date. This transaction reflects our disciplined approach to capital allocation. We've monetized an asset while also securing a multiyear spectrum lease that instantly improves our operating performance. The transaction is immediately accretive to the Scripps Networks segment profit and division margin. The divestiture reflects Scripps' practice of growing businesses and then making strategic decisions about how we unlock the greatest value. We also were pleased to find a fitting owner in Law&Crime, founded and run by ABC News Chief Legal Analyst, Dan Abrams. On the local media M&A front, we are progressing towards closing on our station swaps with Gray and the sales of WFTX in Fort Myers, Florida and WRTV in Indianapolis. Gross proceeds from the Fort Myers and Indianapolis sales will be $123 million. We expect Fort Myers to close in the coming weeks and Indianapolis to follow soon after, pending FCC approval. We're also optimistic about closing in the coming months for the Gray Stations transaction. All of this acquisition and divestiture activity with the stations, the ION affiliates and the sale of Court TV support our strategy of evaluating and maximizing the value of our assets, improving margins while reducing our debt and leverage ratios. Now let's review fourth quarter financial results, and then I'll share some guidance for the first quarter and the full year. During the fourth quarter, our Local Media division revenue was $360 million, down 30% due to the absence of political advertising revenue compared to the prior year. Core advertising, however, was up 12% for the quarter. Let me repeat that. Core was up 12% in the quarter. All 5 of our top categories grew year-over-year, including our largest services at 19%. Gambling was up 32%. Our local sports strategy is a key contributor to our core advertising growth, and it's not just the addition of the Tampa Bay Lightning this year. We also saw continued strong revenue growth during Q4 in our existing local sports markets, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City and South Florida. Local Media distribution revenue was down 1.6%. Expenses for the division were down about 1% year-over-year. Local Media segment profit was $50 million compared to $199 million in Q4 of last year's political cycle. For the first quarter, we expect Local Media division revenue to be up low to mid-single digits. The big story here again is growth in core advertising revenue, which we expect to be up in the mid-single-digit range. In addition to the live sports strategy that also helped drive fourth quarter growth, we have the benefit in Q1 of the Winter Olympics and the Super Bowl on our 11 NBC stations. In the back half of 2026, we expect Local Media division revenue to grow through record midterm election spending. In the 2022 midterm election, we took in about $200 million. This year, we're expecting strong spending in our markets due to U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin. We also are encouraged by ad impact reports showing local broadcasters and related media will retain about half of the projected record spending. We expect local media distribution to benefit from about 70% of our pay TV subscriber households renewing this year. For the year, we expect low single-digit growth in gross revenue and low teens percent growth in net distribution revenue as a result of both the top line growth and declining affiliate fees. Turning back to the first quarter guidance. We expect Local Media expenses to be up low single digits. Backing out the new expense for the Lightning, Local Media expenses are down. Now let's review highlights for the Scripps Networks division fourth quarter results and first quarter guidance. In the fourth quarter, Scripps Networks revenue was $199 million, down less than 8% compared to Q4 2024 and well ahead of guidance and the marketplace. Connected TV revenue was up nearly 10% for the same quarter last year and 30% for the full year. The division's expenses for the quarter were down 13% due to lower employee-related costs and operational expense reductions. Scripps Networks segment profit was $64 million, and the segment margin was 32%. For the first quarter, we expect Scripps Networks division revenue to be down in the high single-digit range. We expect Scripps Networks expenses to be down in the low single digits for Q1. Turning to the segment labeled other. In the fourth quarter, we reported a loss of $8 million. Shared services and corporate expenses were $22 million. For the first quarter, we expect that line to be about $27 million. The expected increase is due to higher medical claims and increased insurance premiums. For the fourth quarter, we reported a loss of $0.51 per share. The quarter included a $19.5 million noncash charge for our held-for-sale Court TV assets, $2.4 million in restructuring costs and a $2.4 million loss on extinguishment of debt. These items increased the loss attributable to shareholders by $0.20 per share. In addition, the preferred stock dividend has a negative impact on earnings per share even when we don't pay it. This quarter, it reduced EPS by $0.18. Now I'd like to share our full year guidance for a few below-the-line items. For 2026, we expect to pay cash interest of between $180 million and $190 million, cash taxes of $15 million to $20 million, capital expenditures of $60 million to $70 million and depreciation and amortization of $140 million to $150 million. We also are required to make a minimum contribution of $4.5 million to our pension plan this year. On December 31, we had no borrowings outstanding on our revolving credit facilities. Cash and cash equivalents totaled $28 million and net debt was $2.3 billion. Also during the quarter, we paid down $55 million on our B2 term loan. Net leverage at year-end was 4.8x per the calculations in our credit agreements. Looking ahead to the end of 2026, I expect a meaningful reduction in our net leverage ratio as we execute our plan to improve EBITDA and reap the benefits of a robust midterm election cycle, our Scripps Sport strategy and accretive M&A and pay down debt. Improving the balance sheet and reducing both our debt and leverage ratio remain our highest capital allocation priorities. And now here's Adam.
Adam Symson, President and CEO
Thank you, Jason. Good morning, everybody. We were very pleased to close out 2025 with strong financial results that have again met or exceeded expectations across the board. We delivered these results by doing exactly what we said we'd do, getting more from the assets we have, our local stations and our networks and executing with focus and discipline. What does that look like? Well, in the Scripps Network division, we exceeded our full year 2025 guidance by delivering nearly 700 basis points of year-over-year margin improvement. This success was driven by our live sports strategy, our streaming revenue initiatives and disciplined expense management. In Local Media, expenses remained flat for the year even as we brought on new growth-driving local sports rights. We've kept expenses down partly by driving down network affiliate fees, reflecting a fundamental shift in the network affiliate dynamic that we expect will continue working in our favor. Now we're building significant momentum for 2026. This year, we expect our financial performance to be buoyed by record midterm election spending, local sports partnerships that are driving industry-leading core advertising performance, national professional sports on ION, the Winter Olympics and the World Cup, continued connected TV revenue growth that outperforms the market and accretive M&A. Two weeks ago, we announced an enterprise-wide transformation plan designed to improve operating performance and unlock new value. As part of that plan, we will grow our enterprise EBITDA run rate by $125 million to $150 million by 2028. We'll achieve this improved EBITDA through cost savings and just as importantly, through revenue growth initiatives. We're leaning hard into the opportunities that technology, AI and automation can deliver to how we operate, the tools we use in our work and the revenue we generate. But we also are being thoughtful. After much research experimentation and testing in the space, I can confidently say that this shift will enhance revenue and not diminish the quality nor the quantity of our work. On the contrary, making full use of technology is exactly what is necessary to modernize and improve it and to ensure we can stay committed to American audiences and advertisers. While we're now unveiling our plan for investors and sharing quantifiable targets for financial models, we actually launched this effort a year ago. Last summer, we consolidated and centralized every technology, engineering and IT function in the company to enhance efficiency and efficacy. We knew those changes had to be a precursor to this plan given the role AI, automation and technology will play in our future. The plan we are now executing will improve EBITDA by nearly 1/3, taking full advantage of opportunities for efficiency. But make no mistake about it, this is not about contraction, it's about growth. For Scripps, it has always been about growth. This company was founded nearly 150 years ago. Our founder, E.W. Scripps, was a savvy capitalist who understood from the outset that doing well and doing good weren't in conflict at all. Rather, they were critical to each other. E.W.'s entrepreneurial spirit has often driven this company to take a contrarian approach to the marketplace and investors have benefited. For the entirety of our history, we have leaned into opportunities others overlooked, starting with the company's founding when E.W. built a newspaper empire directed at the working class, a segment of the population that had been mostly ignored by other newspaper barons of its time. That customer-first approach has continued into more modern times such as when we were laying coax cable in the ground, even as skeptics said no one would pay for television. And when we built HGTV and the original Scripps lifestyle cable networks, while peers focused on their high-margin newspapers. More recently, combining the Katz networks and ION allowed us to diversify away from retransmission revenue, increase the revenue yield on our spectrum and move into the burgeoning marketplace of streaming. The networks business has allowed us to use ION stations to capitalize on our unparalleled reach with the collapse of the regional sports networks and to carve out a leadership position in women's sports, all of which is fueling the revenue growth performance differentiating us today. Now you are witnessing yet another Scripps inflection point that builds upon this recent success. Whereas in E.W. Scripps' Day, information, news and entertainment were scarce, today, they are abundant. What is scarce is real human connection. Scripps is uniquely positioned to create value through a fundamental reorientation around what is becoming our company's greatest role in society today. That is during a time of political polarization, disinformation and discord, when Americans feel increasingly isolated and alone, we see an open lane for economic value creation by embracing the mission to help Americans make authentic personal connections. Today, Scripps operates in the parts of media where the opportunity for connection is real and shared, local communities, live sports, trusted journalism and entertainment brands that still gather audiences across generations. These are environments that drive engagement, deliver measurable outcomes for advertisers and create durable customer and consumer relationships. Because of our company's long-standing reputation for independence and community stewardship, we are uniquely positioned at this moment to deliver what Americans need most, a coalescing sense of purpose and connection. Through our local neighborhood news strategy, we are connecting people to one another and to the communities where they live. Our sports and entertainment programming is connecting people to their passions, to their favorite teams and to one another through meaningful experiences. Our advertising products are moving past aggregating eyeballs to connecting brands and businesses with the valuable customers they seek. And we're both growing and identifying new business opportunities similarly centered on the consumer and connection. Our transformation strategy has 2 major elements. First, we're going even further to improve our operating results. This is the EBITDA growth that I discussed earlier. It's the accretive M&A and portfolio optimization we've been undertaking as a result of the long overdue changes in the regulatory environment, and it's the continued focus on improving our balance sheet. Becoming more efficient, leveraging technology, AI and automation and consolidation-driven M&A are crucial to creating shareholder value, but they're not paths to organic growth. In some cases, they're merely short-term financial engineering. And so the second aspect of our transformation, we grow organically. Our new company vision, we create connection is opening up opportunities that are both adjacent to our current businesses and outside of them where we have a right to win. We expect both adjacencies and greenfield opportunities to produce benefits to the bottom line. For a good example of this strategy, look at what we're already doing with Scripps Sports. I defy you to come up with anything in this country that connects people to each other and to their communities right now more than live sports. When audiences, advertisers, teams and leagues all told us that they were navigating distinct challenges in the fragmented media marketplace, we leveraged our unparalleled reach with linear television and streaming to solve their problems, moving us into an entirely new marketplace that is creating the revenue growth and our earnings that you're not seeing with our peers. That's a straight line between our focus on connection, the customers' problems to be solved and economic value for Scripps shareholders. Our company is palpably energized by the opportunity. Several weeks ago, we gathered more than 200 Scripps employees together to begin executing this transformation plan. And in the weeks since, the circle has been steadily expanding. Our colleagues across the country are engaged in this work and are excited by the opportunity to drive this important company further, faster and into the future and so am I. The next few years will be pivotal as we accelerate our momentum. So I'm grateful that the Scripps Board has decided to extend my contract until the end of 2029. I have the collective creativity and talent of nearly 5,000 colleagues behind me. I believe deeply in our ability to execute yet another Scripps transformation, and I am committed to seeing it through. And now, operator, we're ready for questions.
Operator, Operator
Our first question comes from Dan Kurnos of Benchmark StoneX.
Daniel Kurnos, Analyst
First, Adam, congratulations on your extension. You've successfully guided the company through challenging times, so it’s well deserved. I have two questions. Firstly, regarding the broader environment, you've shown that you're open to creating value for shareholders, and there are many moving parts with both acquisitions and divestitures. Do you foresee any changes? How are you considering the situation, especially with our transformation plan in place? If the FCC removes the cap and Nexstar and TEGNA finalize their deal, will that alter your perspective on how things might align or present new opportunities? I’ll also have a follow-up.
Adam Symson, President and CEO
Yes. Thanks, Dan, and I appreciate the kind words. From my perspective, transformation actually positions us better for the possibility of participating in M&A. But as I said earlier, consolidation, which I absolutely think is an opportunity and necessary is financial engineering. And what we're after, what even a post-consolidation Scripps would have to be after is organic growth. Relative to M&A, it's important to note, we've been active in the M&A marketplace from the outset, executing our plan to improve the performance of our portfolio and to improve the balance sheet. Every deal that we have announced has either put cash in our pocket or it will increase segment profit and some benefit both. I'm referencing the announced sales of the 2 stations at premium sellers' multiples, the Gray swap, the sale of Court TV, the acquisition we announced today of more than 20 stations from INYO that will fold into our networks portfolio and increase segment profit margins. And honestly, I don't think this work is finished. I think we'll continue to look for opportunities to optimize our portfolio and take advantage of changes to the regulatory environment.
Daniel Kurnos, Analyst
So with that said, Adam, I think you gave a couple of examples of how you plan on driving organic growth, but where will we see that? How long will it take to achieve? You've done great things with CTV, for example, and ION. Obviously, local sports and women's sports has been a driver. I assume you're not going to give us the road map on some of the adjacencies or even sort of some of the tangents given for competitive reasons, but is there any way for you to help us think through when we start to see some of these changes and to what degree and any other incremental examples you could give us besides the one you gave in your prepared remarks?
Adam Symson, President and CEO
Yes, absolutely. I mean, look, I think the growth is going to come from both work that we're doing to enhance the yield on our current businesses and from new opportunities we're seeing in extensions and adjacencies to the businesses we're in now as well as new marketplaces of opportunity where we have the right to win. The platforms we have that we own today are so powerful. We see massive opportunities to leverage them to grow enterprise value, significant opportunities ahead. I would also say there's significant top line upside from things like revenue yield management, improvements to seller productivity and accountability and additional centralized decision-making. This business has traditionally been, I would say, slow to adopt technology in the back office and the front office, this industry. And there's been a fundamental shift in the way technology opens up that opportunity, and we're going to change that tradition at Scripps. We're going to really lean into that opportunity to both improve the efficiency of the business, but also improve the yield that we drive from our current assets while we explore and then move after other growth opportunities that we expect to be focused on bottom line improvement.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Kupinski of NOBLE Capital Markets.
Michael Kupinski, Analyst
A couple of questions. You mentioned some key advertising categories were driving core, and congratulations on a very strong core in the fourth quarter. I was wondering how some of the more interest-sensitive categories are performing like auto and some of the housing categories are performing in the first quarter. If you can just kind of give us a sense of how that's performing in the first quarter.
Jason Combs, CFO
Yes. And so we guided to core up mid-single digits in the first quarter, and we saw January start pretty strong, 4 of our top 5 categories were up in January, 2 of them actually up more than 10% and so there are some categories you mentioned, for example, home services type categories that maybe is a little bit weaker right now. But services, our largest category, continues to be strong. Gambling has been strong and automotive has showed some relative strength as well.
Adam Symson, President and CEO
I would also add, Mike, besides the category level view, first quarter, particularly in local, is starting off very strong as a result of the sports partnerships that we have and the upside we have to continue the growth we saw in the fourth quarter with those partnerships.
Jason Combs, CFO
Yes. I think it's important to note that, as we mentioned earlier, the addition of the Tampa Bay Lightning is significant, but it's not the only factor. Every one of our NHL deals in local is seeing growth in the first quarter compared to the previous year. We are not only securing these deals but also enhancing them after we win them.
Michael Kupinski, Analyst
Got you. And then in terms of political, I know that in the last cycle, we had such strong political that political is being booked in advanced. And so I was just wondering how much visibility do you have in Q2 and Q3 in political advertising at this point?
Adam Symson, President and CEO
Thanks, Mike. We're analyzing the races, and our portfolio is aligning well. We have 16 gubernatorial races, seven of which I anticipate will be highly competitive. There are also six states and 26 U.S. House races expected to be quite competitive. In the U.S. Senate, there are a couple of notably competitive races, particularly in Kentucky to replace Mitch McConnell and the special election in Ohio to replace JD Vance. The good news is that broadcast will capture the majority of political spending, with about 51% projected to go to broadcast. It's essential to note that Scripps operates differently from other local broadcasters due to our network businesses and success in connected TV. We're also competing effectively with our CTV inventory, which will benefit us during political years. For instance, we observed substantial political activity in CTV in January, with significant spending in Texas, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Illinois. We're attracting dollars from markets where we don't even have local broadcasts. Our opportunities in political advertising will be reflected in both linear local broadcast and a robust year for linear political as well as CTV.
Michael Kupinski, Analyst
Got you. And then in terms of your targeted $125 million to $150 million in annualized EBITDA growth, can you break down how much of that is expected to cost savings versus revenue initiatives? And then also, can you break down that between the segments?
Jason Combs, CFO
Yes. So Mike, we are looking across sort of each and every revenue and expense line. I don't think we're going to provide a breakdown of exactly how that's going to hit. But I will tell you, you're going to see an impact across the enterprise. Each segment, corporate, there's a focus both on the revenue side, as you said, revenue growth, improving our yield, identifying adjacencies, identifying greenfield opportunities, but also looking at operational efficiencies within our workforce, third-party spend, all of those sorts of things. I mean we are turning over every rock here.
Adam Symson, President and CEO
Yes. Just a little additional commentary. That number, $125 million to $150 million, that's a bankable plan. I think you can take that to the bank as far as I'm concerned. And that should give you a sense as to what the split looks like. I do think there's going to be significant top line opportunity and growth as a result of this transformation, as I talked about. This is a growth-oriented transformation as we reorient the company towards our new vision of we create connection. But the EBITDA improvement will absolutely be bankable.
Michael Kupinski, Analyst
Got you. And so Adam, if I hear you correctly, then if there were, let's say, other disruptions and things like that, that you would then look at further cost reductions to achieve that target? Is that what I'm hearing?
Adam Symson, President and CEO
I'm not sure I understood.
Michael Kupinski, Analyst
If there were disruptions in the economy, are you saying that the $125 million to $150 million target is achievable, and that you would consider additional cost reductions to reach that goal?
Adam Symson, President and CEO
I am very confident in the $125 million to $150 million target. Just to frame it up, we've spent months examining every opportunity in every corner of the business and the company, the front office, the back office. As I said, I'm confident we'll deliver on the EBITDA targets and be a stronger, more nimble and more aggressive company. This is not some sort of notional plan. This is a well laid out and executed plan.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Steven Cahall of Wells Fargo.
Steven Cahall, Analyst
A few more on the transformation plan. Maybe first, Jason, the $20 million to $30 million that you talked about for '26, is that a run rate number? Or do we think about that as the actual contribution of EBITDA dollars that are additive to like a base case for 2026. And Adam, I mean, this is a massive undertaking. It's very ambitious. I think it's like 30% additive to EBITDA, and you talked about how it's bankable. How do you just think about some of the risk of revenue impact? I mean I imagine a lot of these things either touch current employees, maybe even spook sometimes a little bit of employees in this age of AI disruption. So how do you go about managing the employee base to make sure that everyone is able to execute against this and you don't face any of that? And then I just have a quick follow-up on M&A.
Jason Combs, CFO
Steve, I'll go first. So the $20 million to $30 million is the in-year impact. So it's additive to '26 and any baseline model you have there. The run rate annualized savings we would expect as we exit the year this year is $60 million to $75 million.
Adam Symson, President and CEO
Yes, Steven, I mean, there's no question this is a really ambitious undertaking. But I'll tell you, we have engaged employees across the company in the process. This is not a top-down process. This is a bottoms-up process that has really given many of our employees a tremendous sense of agency. And so there's a lot of energy in the company to get this done. Does that mean everybody is on board with the changes? Of course, not. But I think the vast majority of our employees recognize that this company is just really, really important to our stakeholders, not only our shareholders, but the communities that we serve as well as, frankly, our democracy at this time. And they are bought into this role that we can play in our society. Over the last couple of years, we have already been aggressively upskilling our employees relative to the use of automation, technology and AI. On nearly every town hall I'm on, I talk about the importance of employees upskilling and the role that technology is going to have, not only in this company and not only in this industry, but more broadly in the environment, the workplace environment overall. And that's really a part of, I would say, the consistent approach we've taken to working with our employees to communicate with them with candor and with compassion. And so I feel really good about the behavioral change that will come as a result of this transformation. This isn't just a transformation of workflows, processes, this is actually a transformation that will see us evolve a much more nimble, aggressive and competitive company where our employees are both combining a level of accountability and performance orientation as well as sort of the mission approach that Scripps has always been known for. So I feel really great about our employees and their engagement in this process.
Steven Cahall, Analyst
Great. And then just on the M&A front, I mean, I know we don't like to talk about sort of theoretical things that may or may not happen. You had a very specific situation over the last few months. I get the impression that the way Sinclair came wasn't necessarily the way that the Board or management would like to engage. But I get the impression that after a proposal, things have kind of now ended. So I guess, is that correct that they've ended? And can you talk about maybe why there isn't scope for more engagement around that potential transaction?
Adam Symson, President and CEO
Yes. Look, back last year, the Scripps Board of Directors made it clear that Sinclair's proposal wasn't in the interest of all Scripps stakeholders nor shareholders, and they rejected the Sinclair acquisition proposal. Nothing new has happened since, and I really don't expect it to.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Craig Huber of Huber Research Partners.
Craig Huber, Analyst
My first question is about your cost savings plan. Can you provide some examples of how AI will help you save costs and enhance your product? Please share some insights on that.
Adam Symson, President and CEO
Sure, Craig. So look, there are both significant top line and expense side opportunities using technology and AI. On the expense side, I think opportunities include additional centralization and automation, leveraging cloud computing for production workflows, enhancing news gathering, marketing operations and enhancing external spend. Again, 2 important points to be made about these examples. These aren't broad themes or broad brush sort of ideas. They're plans with real business cases. And that's how I have the confidence to know that we're going to execute on that $125 million to $150 million in EBITDA improvement. Second, I believe strongly that the cost savings will actually improve our product because I think we're going to bring greater efficacy, more agility to the company. Both content and advertising will be improved. And I think it's going to improve our service to audiences and advertisers and, of course, improve our opportunity for top line value. Going back to Steven's question, I make sure I answered it clearly. I don't see this in any way as diminishing top line value. I see this as actually enhancing top line value.
Craig Huber, Analyst
And then when you say helping with the news gathering, just go a little bit deeper on that, please, and the content, just how AI is specifically going to help you on that front, please?
Adam Symson, President and CEO
Over the last couple of years, as fragmentation has increased and people have started using more platforms for news and information, we have continued to ask our employees to do more with less. This has negatively impacted the quality of our product. AI presents an opportunity for us to ensure that our reporters and field journalists can focus on what they initially joined the industry to do – report, connect with the communities they serve, and engage directly with our audience. It allows them to attend news events without the pressure of quickly posting updates online or managing multiple live broadcasts. By utilizing AI for some of these tasks, our journalists can spend more time on actual journalism rather than the performative, distribution, or production elements of their roles. We want them to create content because that is where the real value lies and what sets us apart from generic news and information. We don’t want them wasting time rewriting broadcast scripts into AP-style articles for the web; technology can handle that, and we are already implementing it.
Craig Huber, Analyst
Great. I appreciate that. And then talk to us, if you would, please, about your expectations maybe for the timing of possibly getting rid of the 39% ownership cap and maybe also maybe touch on where do you think things are at now in terms of down the road here being able to negotiate with the virtual MVPDs on your own behalf as a local TV station operator as opposed to relying on the networks. What do you think the path is to get that fixed to get it resolved? Does it have to go through Congress or can the FCC do it on that second point?
Adam Symson, President and CEO
Yes. Well, I mean, I think that you asked 2 different things. I'll talk first about maybe my view on the cap. Look, I think the FCC recognizes that local news, local sports and local programming now entirely depends on the durability of local television, right? The newspapers are just a shell of what they are. And standing in the way of that durability are the rules that essentially prevent consolidation, both in market and nationally. So we think lifting of the cap and consolidation is necessary to compete on an equal playing field with the national diversified media companies, frankly, to give us the leverage necessary with the networks that are already using their leverage essentially to impair our ability to serve local communities. And I think the Chairman rightly recognizes that using their economic leverage to control the local airwaves is a de facto violation of the Communications Act. And so I believe that the Chairman and the FCC will ultimately rectify that by both allowing limited in-market consolidation as well as lifting of the cap. You heard us announce today that we're acquiring the rest of the stations that we divested when we acquired ION, the INYO stations, that will require a waiver or a lifting of the cap to get done, and I have a lot of confidence that we'll be able to see that through. I believe this commission is acting in a way that will rebalance the marketplace. I don't think it's about favoring one platform or another. I think it's just in a way that's trying to make things more fair so that the American people know that they can rely on local television for generations to come. At the same time, I'm now more optimistic that the DOJ has come to recognize that its approach to the local market definition should evolve because I think the evidence is fairly obvious to anyone who examines it. The net effect should be that the FCC will adopt the courts ruling that strikes down the prohibition against owning 2 big 4s and then the DOJ will recognize what Chairman Carr already has that we don't just compete against local TV stations. We compete for ad dollars in a crowded and a complex video marketplace. And some in-market consolidation is not only okay, it's actually going to benefit consumers because it's going to safeguard journalism in the markets that we serve. As far as the virtual MVPDs, I'm not sure that, that's top of anybody's priority list right now from a government regulatory perspective. Clearly, we would be better off and we think that both the networks and the local affiliates would be better off if we were to negotiate directly with the virtual MVPDs. In fact, in some cases, I think the virtual MVPDs and the network relationship is compromised because of cross ownership. So I would expect us to continue beating that drum and I know that there are folks in Congress that agree. I do think it probably takes a reclassification of the virtual MVPDs as MVPDs. But you just saw that happen in Europe. And frankly, I don't think there's any reason why we should differentiate between the delivery of our product over Wi-Fi or coax or broadcast. To me, all the same rules apply, the same copyright rules apply and frankly, so should the same business dynamics.
Craig Huber, Analyst
So just a quick follow-up there. So what do you think the timing is to lift or eliminate the 39% ownership cap? Do you think it might get done here in the next, say, 2 months?
Adam Symson, President and CEO
Honestly, Craig, there are people who are more knowledgeable or better connected than I am who might know the answer to that. Any response I provide would just be guesswork. I believe it's coming, but I can't say if it will happen in the next two months. My role is to manage this company in compliance with our regulator's rules, and we will continue to do that, while also acknowledging that our regulator is open to making necessary changes to benefit the business and restore balance in the ecosystem.
Craig Huber, Analyst
Sorry, one last question. Just can you give us a little more meat and potatoes view? What about this ION transaction you're looking to do to pick up these additional TV stations here? What it means for your company, why you're excited about it? Maybe some financial metrics, I don't know if you can go into that detail or not.
Jason Combs, CFO
Yes, Craig. Just to remind you, we had to sell these stations to meet FCC regulations back in 2021. With the current regulatory environment, we believe it's the right time to buy them back. Owning these stations will positively impact our segment profit and margins, and we will also benefit from some tax advantages. This transaction will help eliminate a significant one-time tax liability on our balance sheet. Considering all of this, it seems like the right decision. There is some regulatory approval needed, but ultimately, this deal will provide an immediate financial advantage since we are currently paying an affiliate fee for these stations, which will end once the transaction is complete.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from Shanna Chung of Barclays.
Gengxuan Qiu, Analyst
I realize it could be smaller, but could you provide any additional color on the proceeds from the Court TV sale and maybe any economics in terms of multiples there? And then I guess, are you guys looking to sell any other assets like Court TV?
Jason Combs, CFO
Yes. Thanks, Shanna. So we were really pleased, as we said, to find buyer for such a great and distinctive brand like Court TV. We are not disclosing any specific financial terms. But I will point out the transaction includes both a cash consideration upfront as well as a long-term distribution agreement. So that kind of ultimately created the economic package that we felt was in our best interest to go ahead and execute.
Adam Symson, President and CEO
And Shanna, I guess I'd say broadly, we will continue to look at opportunities in the M&A marketplace, particularly in our Local Media division, where we have the opportunity to get premium multiples for noncore assets that we think can both improve the operating performance of our portfolio and help us improve the balance sheet.
Gengxuan Qiu, Analyst
And then just on Scripps Networks. I know in 4Q and 1Q, when you guys don't have the WNBA, there tends to be a bit more pressure on Scripps Networks top line. I think the guide was a little softer than expected even under the seasonality. So just you guys talked about positive commentary on political on CTV and growth in advertising in that channel. I guess, is the guidance based on heavy live sports in the Super Bowl and Olympics in 1Q that diverted some ad dollars in that channel? Or are you seeing increased competition on the CTV side with more and more players adding kind of FAST channels?
Jason Combs, CFO
Certainly, I can address that. Regarding our Q1 guidance, you're correct that our networks usually experience stronger performance during the summer months due to the sports franchises we hold, particularly with the WNBA and NWSL. Therefore, we anticipate a more favorable outlook for the second and third quarters. When examining the guidance of a high single-digit decline, there are a few points to consider. One significant factor is core TV, which will contribute to a negative comparison as we progress through this year. The guidance included five weeks of revenue for core TV compared to the prior year's entire quarter, leading to this core TV comparison issue. Additionally, we've noticed some weakness in direct response pricing as we began the quarter, influenced by various macroeconomic factors affecting the direct response category. Finally, and related to my earlier comments on sports, we discussed last year the upfront advertising situation. The prior year's upfront, currently impacting our profit and loss, performed weaker overall outside of sports programming. This was evident in our Q4 results and Q1 guidance. However, we performed well in the previous year's upfront related to our sports properties, and we expect to see that benefit as we enter the second quarter.
Adam Symson, President and CEO
On the FAST front, I would say, yes, there are more FAST channels out there than ever. But frankly, our channels are among the most premium channels in the marketplace. We have terrific partnerships with the distributors. And so we don't expect to see growth abate. I mean I think we've forecasted double-digit growth, and I expect to continue to see that.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Ken Silver of Stifel.
Ken Silver, Analyst
Just 2 topics. First, on the core advertising guide that you gave for the first quarter, I think you said up mid-single digits. I just want to clarify, does that include the Super Bowl and the Olympics?
Jason Combs, CFO
Yes, it does. Yes, it includes the Super Bowl and Olympics. We have 11 NBC affiliates. So we did see some benefit tied to those as well as a lift tied to all of our local sports rights, or NHL deals we have.
Ken Silver, Analyst
Got it. So I guess, I don't know if you want to parse it a little bit, like if you excluded the Olympics and Super Bowl, any sense of how much it would be up?
Jason Combs, CFO
So I don't think we're kind of breaking that out. We did see a strong performance in our Olympics revenue. We were up about 13% versus where we were back in 2022 and saw a bit of a lift on the Super Bowl as well, switching from Fox last year to NBC. But I don't think we're breaking out beyond that level of detail.
Adam Symson, President and CEO
I think you also said that our partnerships with live sports on the local level was already seeing significant growth in the first quarter.
Jason Combs, CFO
Also, which each of our NHL contracts. I mean, Tampa Bay is obviously new in the first quarter, but all of the rest of our NHL contracts are showing nice growth year-over-year in their second and third year with us.
Ken Silver, Analyst
All right. Hopefully, you receive a bigger boost now after the gold medal. I wish you the best with that. I want to ask you one thing. You mentioned in your prepared remarks about lower reverse compensation to the networks. This might be a review, but can you discuss why you expect it to decrease?
Jason Combs, CFO
Yes. We have been discussing this for the past couple of years, noting that there has been a shift from increasing affiliate fees to a more stable situation over the last two to three years. Now, we are facing ongoing challenges on our top line due to subscriber churn and a decrease in product exclusivity, as seen with the NBA and NBC, where much of the content is also available on Peacock. We have been able to negotiate reductions in affiliate fees as we move forward. While we anticipate some continued growth in our top line retransmission revenue, which we expect to be in the low single digits, the more significant narrative is the expectation of declining affiliate fees this year.
Ken Silver, Analyst
Okay. And you mentioned NBC Peacock, but is it with the other networks, too?
Jason Combs, CFO
Yes. Yes.
Operator, Operator
We have a follow-up question from the line of Craig Huber of Huber Research Partners.
Craig Huber, Analyst
Just a couple of follow-ups, if I could. Adam, how would you describe the advertising environment right now, say, versus a year or 2 years ago? Do you feel it's any better out there, the environment that you're operating in, both on the Scripps Network side as well as the local TV station side? Just give us some puts and takes on how you're feeling broadly on that front.
Adam Symson, President and CEO
I would say it's largely the same, and I attribute this to macro uncertainties. Similar to how Wall Street experiences fluctuations due to uncertainty, the local and network sides are facing unclear conditions regarding tariffs, which has affected marketers' spending willingness. This has often led to later buys and a more ambiguous media environment. I don't view this as a crisis or an advertising recession but rather a general softness. Our strategy in sports has focused on acquiring premium inventory for must-watch programming that continues to attract advertisers. When I consider our developments with ION and women's sports and how we've leveraged that inventory to create value across our network portfolio, I see it as a significant factor in our success. This is evident when compared to our peers in networks. Additionally, in local markets, sports have opened up entirely new categories and advertisers that weren't typically local television advertisers, now engaging with us through our local sports franchises. Overall, while I characterize the environment as somewhat stagnant, we are successfully uncovering new opportunities and expanding the range and number of advertisers we serve through our strategic efforts.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for Q&A and does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.