Earnings Call Transcript - STRZ Q4 2025

Nilay Shah, Investor Relations

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for Starz Entertainment's Fiscal 2025 Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. We'll begin with opening remarks from our President and CEO, Jeffrey Hirsch; followed by remarks from our CFO, Scott MacDonald. Also joining us on the call today is Alison Hoffman, President of Starz Networks. After our opening remarks, we'll open the call for questions. The matters discussed on the call include forward-looking statements, including those regarding expected future performance. Such statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially and adversely from those described in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. This includes the risk factors set forth in our most recently filed 10-Q for Starz Entertainment Corp. Starz undertakes no obligation to publicly release the result of any revisions to these forward-looking statements that may be made to reflect any future events or circumstances. The matters discussed today will also include non-GAAP measures. The reconciliation for these and additional required information is available in the 8-K we filed this afternoon, which is available on the Starz Investor Relations website at investors.starz.com. I'll now turn the call over to Jeff.

Jeffrey Hirsch, CEO

Thank you, Nilay, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. It's only been 9 months since our separation, and I'm pleased to report that Starz delivered another strong quarter, both financially and operationally. Before I get into the highlights of the quarter, I want to give everyone an update on how we are executing in our core operations and how we are positioned for 2026 and beyond. 2025 was a very successful year, one in which we exceeded all of our financial guidance. It's a feat we're especially proud of amidst the pressures you see happening across the industry. We ended the year at an all-time high of 12.7 million OTT subscribers, growing year-over-year by 7.6%. We grew OTT subscribers in 3 out of 4 quarters, including adding 370,000 in the fourth quarter alone. This resulted in 170,000 total subscriber growth in quarter 4. We grew total revenue on a sequential basis in both quarter 3 and quarter 4. We exceeded our $200 million outlook for 2025 by 2%, delivering $204 million and grew adjusted OIBDA year-over-year. And we exceeded our leverage target ending the year lower than anticipated at 2.9x versus a 3.1x guide. The successful 2025 was aided by an exceptionally strong December quarter. Our substantial subscriber growth in the quarter was fueled by the stellar reception to our programming slate. We premiered the highly anticipated 'Spartacus' revival to critical acclaim, and 'Power Book IV: Force' Season 3 delivered impressive in-season viewership growth of 57%. The momentum from quarter 4 has continued into 2026, resulting in a strong start to the year. The success of our originals proved that our Bedrock strategy is working. We deliver edgy, premium content for women and underrepresented audiences that broad-based streamers don't address. Content remains core to everything we do. And as we look at the rest of 2026, it's clear we have one of our most compelling lineups of originals. The slate includes the highly anticipated conclusion of 'Outlander' and 'Power Book III: Raising Kanan', the premiere of Starz owned 'Fightland', the return of 'Blood of My Blood' and the long-awaited return of one of our biggest hits, 'P-Valley', from Pulitzer Prize-winning showrunner, Katori Hall. These 2026 originals, our Pay-One movies from Lionsgate, including films like 'The Housemaid' and the Michael Biopic, and our robust development pipeline make it clear that Starz has never been better positioned to keep our audience engaged, entertained, and growing. Before I get into our key financial targets for 2026, I want to recap our operational milestones in 2025. We restructured our Canadian business into a licensing revenue stream, prioritizing our focus on the U.S. market. We greenlit and completed production on our first wholly-owned series 'Fightland', advancing our strategy of rebuilding our content library through ownership. And this morning, we announced that Sky will come on board as our co-commission partner for 'Fightland', further improving the already superior unit economics we get from owning the series. We've also made significant strides in aging our content slate this year while still expanding our network-defining franchises, 'Outlander' and the 'Power Universe'. More specifically, we successfully launched the 'Outlander' prequel 'Blood of My Blood' and have greenlit a new 'Power Universe' series, 'Power Origins', which has a supersized 18-episode order, is currently in production and will give fans an action-packed origin story of fan-favorite characters, Ghost and Tommy, as ambitious young entrepreneurs. These shifts are critical in achieving our long-term targets of increasing margins to 20%, converting 70% of adjusted OIBDA to unlevered free cash flow, and delevering to 2.5x as quickly as possible. The changes fortify our long-term path and set us up to continue the growth we delivered in 2025 through 2026. Our outlook for 2026 is strong. We expect OTT revenue to grow. We expect to deliver low single-digit percentage adjusted OIBDA growth versus 2025. We anticipate generating between $80 million to $120 million of positive unlevered free cash flow, converting the business to positive equity free cash flow. And we expect to end the year at approximately 2.7x leverage, an improvement from our current 2.9x leverage and well on our way to reaching our stated goal of 2.5x leverage. As we stated, we've spent several quarters unwinding some of the legacy constraints of operating within a studio. We believe this has set up the business to drive strong cash flow generation going forward, with 2026 functioning as an inflection point. With the long-term growth of the business as our North Star, we are deemphasizing the need to manage the business around quarterly subscriber levels. As a result, we will not be disclosing subscribers starting with the March 2026 quarter. We remain laser-focused on OTT revenue growth, profitability, converting adjusted OIBDA to free cash flow, and delevering. We believe this decision is in the best interest of our shareholders as it puts us on a path to achieving the targets we outlined. Before I hand the call over to Scott, I want to reiterate that we continue to believe that there is an opportunity to scale our two core demographics and grow our business as a result of the increased consolidation across the media landscape. Given our track record of profitably converting our business from linear to digital and our industry-leading tech stack, we believe we are uniquely positioned to capitalize on potential M&A opportunities. We are poised to increase our scale as assets that are strategically valuable to Starz become available. Now let me hand it over to Scott to take you through the financials.

Scott MacDonald, CFO

Thank you, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll briefly discuss the fourth quarter's financial results, provide an update on our balance sheet, and discuss our outlook for 2026. It was a strong fourth quarter and calendar year for Starz, as Jeff outlined. We were able to reach the key milestones we outlined on our previous calls for both the quarter and the year, and we positioned the post-separation business to drive a significant increase in free cash flow generation from 2025 to 2026 while further bringing down our leverage. Let me start the breakdown of the quarter with an update on our subscribers. Please note that our financials for the fourth quarter reflect the transition of our Canadian operations to a content licensing relationship. And hence, I will focus my discussion on subscriber trends on Starz's U.S. business. Starz added 370,000 domestic OTT subscribers in the quarter, reaching an all-time high of 12.7 million customers. Additionally, total U.S. subscribers grew 170,000 in the period to 17.6 million as growth in OTT was partially offset by a decline in linear customers. The increase in subscribers in the seasonally strong fourth quarter was driven by demand for our scripted originals, including 'Force' and 'Spartacus'. Moving on to revenue. Total revenue in the quarter was $323 million, up 60 basis points on a sequential basis. Sequential revenue growth was driven by an increase in distribution revenue, primarily from revenue recognized in the quarter related to the transition of our Canadian operations to a content licensing relationship and is reflected in the linear and other revenue line item on our income statement. This growth in distribution revenue was partially offset by a decline in linear and OTT revenue, which stemmed from ongoing traditional linear declines and heavy holiday seasonal promotions, including lower-churn multi-month plans. Adjusted OIBDA for the quarter was $56 million, up over 100% sequentially due to lower programming amortization, lower advertising marketing, and higher revenue. We ended the calendar year with $204 million of adjusted OIBDA, exceeding our $200 million outlook. Looking at the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with net debt of $589 million, roughly flat with Q3 levels. Total gross debt was flat at $625 million and includes $325 million of our 5.5% senior unsecured notes as well as $300 million of our Term Loan A. Cash was $36 million, and our $150 million revolver remained undrawn at the end of the period. Leverage at the end of 2025 was 2.9x, better than our previous guidance of exiting the year at 3.1x. Looking forward, as Jeff noted in his prepared remarks, 2026 is going to be a year with significant focus on driving increased free cash flow. More specifically, in 2026, we expect unlevered free cash flow to range between $80 million to $120 million, and we expect to generate positive equity free cash flow for the year. This represents approximately an $80 million to $120 million improvement year-over-year in both measures. The improvement in cash flow stems from lower cash content spend in 2026 versus 2025, which drives a closer alignment of cash content spend with the programming amortization expense reflected on our income statement. Finally, as we complete the transition in the first few months of 2026 from being part of a studio business and bringing our content payment timing in better alignment with industry norms, with improved free cash flow and another year of at least $200 million of adjusted OIBDA, we expect our leverage to continue to decline year-over-year and exit the year at approximately 2.7x. Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Nilay for Q&A.

Nilay Shah, Investor Relations

Operator, could we open up the call for Q&A?

Operator, Operator

Yes. Thank you. Our first question comes from Brent Penter with Raymond James & Associates.

Brent Penter, Analyst

And first and foremost, I appreciate the 50 Cent hold music there. So good to see the $200 million target exceeded in '25 and then expected to grow in '26. Can you just walk us through some of the moving pieces? You talked about OTT revenue up. How should we think about total revenue? And then with that 20% margin target out there exiting 2028, what kind of progress in '26 does the guidance contemplate?

Jeffrey Hirsch, CEO

Look forward to seeing you on Monday. I'll take the second question in terms of the margin. So we're well on our way to executing against getting to that 20% margin coming out of calendar '28. You'll see a slight improvement in '26, but the lion's share of the improvement really comes in '27 and '28 when you start to see the Starz originals really become a lion's share of our programming slate. And there's a lot of de-aging of the content there, ownership of the content we announced, offsetting some of the costs by bringing Sky in on 'Fightland' as a co-commission partner. So when you take all of the de-aging of the content, Starz owned content, creating that incremental revenue stream by selling it internationally, you really start to see us move significantly toward that 20% margin in '27 and '28. Scott, do you want to take that?

Scott MacDonald, CFO

I would just say, on OTT revenue, we feel really good about growth next year. When you look at our slate, it's probably one of the best we've ever had. It's very consistently placed throughout the year. So we feel really good about that as well as our focus on our pricing strategy.

Brent Penter, Analyst

Okay. Got it. And then thanks for the commentary on industry consolidation. It sounds like you all are ready to capitalize if there's an opportunity. So I guess, what kind of assets would you be interested in? And then how should we think about the constraints in terms of your ability to buy something? Is there a leverage level you want to go above or an equity valuation that you would want to be at before doing any kind of deal? Or just can you help frame those constraints?

Jeffrey Hirsch, CEO

Yes, great question. I'm not going to comment on our conversations to date. But what I will say, and we've said this repeatedly, we have 2 very valuable core demos that make us really complementary and important in the ecosystem. And there's a lot of, I would say, linear networks out there that have great brands that kind of complement our 2 core demos, but are really marooned on the linear side of the business without any kind of tech capability or desire from their larger corporate parent to try to transition them and reconnect them with their consumers that have moved to the digital side. And so those are kind of the characteristics that we look at to make sure that we're continuing to lean into what we do on an SVOD side, much more on an ad-supported side. And again, we continue to drive leverage down. Scott and I continue to focus on getting leverage down to that 2.5x. And so that's where we would like to operate. So any kind of deal that we do, we'd have to stick within that kind of leverage constraint to keep it around. We don't really want to operate in a business that's 4x, 5x, 6x levered. And so we'll be very cautious about what kind of deal we do when it comes to leverage.

Brent Penter, Analyst

Got it. Setting M&A aside, now that free cash flow is beginning to improve, how do you prioritize your other capital allocation goals? Deleveraging has clearly been the primary objective so far. As you approach the 2.5x target, what other capital allocation goals do you have? Additionally, at what point, considering the current valuation, do you start to evaluate shareholder returns?

Scott MacDonald, CFO

I believe this is a positive situation for us as we progress. As I mentioned, we anticipate that free cash flow will improve and fall in the range of $80 million to $120 million on an unlevered basis. This represents a significant increase compared to last year. We will begin to accumulate cash, allowing us the opportunity to reduce debt and invest further in the business. At that stage, we will be able to make the decision to start returning some of that cash to shareholders.

Nilay Shah, Investor Relations

Operator, could we open up the call for Q&A?

Operator, Operator

Yes. Thank you. Our next question comes from Thomas Yeh with Morgan Stanley.

Thomas Yeh, Analyst

On the OTT subscriber momentum into this year, I think you mentioned 1Q is pacing pretty healthy. Can you just talk about the retention patterns that you're seeing for the subscribers that might have come in for Spartacus or it came back for Power Book IV Season 3? Is the slate structured to run that retention through? Or is there something more to do there still?

Jeffrey Hirsch, CEO

I believe there are two main aspects to consider. First, our schedule is designed to ensure a strong connection throughout the year. We have some of our most significant shows like Kanan, P-Valley, and Fightland, which contribute to a consistent lineup appealing to one of our target demographics. Additionally, we're anticipating the finale of 'Outlander' and 'Blood of My Blood' release, along with a few acquisitions to fill any gaps. This gives us a comprehensive schedule, complemented by excellent films from Lionsgate Pay-One and Universal Pay-Two. Furthermore, we've implemented longer-term offers, specifically annual subscriptions, which have proven to increase the transition rate from these offers to retail significantly. This results in a notable rise in average revenue per user at the conclusion of these offers and also helps reduce long-term churn. Therefore, the combination of a strong lineup and extended offers positions us well to decrease churn over the next 12 to 18 months.

Thomas Yeh, Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. Anything on the distribution partnership side that is kicking in as well? Or any update on progress there in terms of the bundled partnerships that you've taken on?

Alison Hoffman, President of Starz Networks

Thomas, this is Alison. I would say we continue to be at the forefront of bundling. This is really a focus for us. We've set up the business to be a complementary or an add-on partner to a broad-based streamer, to targeted streamers. And so that's a real focus for us. I think that we're excited to expand our bundling relationships, and we're excited to see expansion in our distribution relationships. And we think that even with the disruption in the industry that those will come. And just to comment on particularly the bundling piece, our data is showing that it is very good for business. The bundles that we have in place are expanding our total addressable market (TAM). They're driving net new additions to the business. They're revenue accretive, and then also ultimately are driving better retention for the business. So bundling and distribution are a big focus for us, and we're excited about the year to come.

Thomas Yeh, Analyst

Okay. Great. And then last one for me. You've talked about a timeline to get to 60% plus slate ownership. If we just think about the opportunities there, is it fair to assume that we should think about the international sales as concurrent with that ramp and then ancillaries maybe start to build thereafter?

Jeffrey Hirsch, CEO

I think that's spot on. We've announced four original productions that are currently in various stages of development. For all four, we've partnered with Plan B to assist in production, and we’re very excited about that. The projects 'Kingmaker' and 'Masquerade' have just finished their initial setups, and we're working on finding production partners to determine the best locations and costs for filming. Additionally, as you saw with the Sky announcement this morning, we have a first-look deal with Sky, which allows them to review our slate and shows interest in it. I anticipate that this partnership will strengthen over time. Furthermore, 'Fightland,' produced by Lionsgate, which is our international sales partner, received highly positive feedback at Content London last night. Outside of the Sky markets, Lionsgate will handle the sales for 'Fightland,' and I expect the unit economics for the project to continue improving.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from David Joyce with Seaport Research Partners.

David Joyce, Analyst

A couple of things. Last year, you had a few volatile quarters of cash flows in and out and margins up and down, tied to some of the final content arrangements with Lionsgate. How should we think about the cadence this year of both OIBDA and free cash flow? And on the free cash flow side, is it going to be moving around based on spending for originals? That's the first question.

Scott MacDonald, CFO

Okay, thanks, David. That's a good question. When you think about our P&L, it has been very up and down. A lot of that was driven by the transition from being part of a bigger studio, same thing with the related cash. We worked over the last few months to bring that into better alignment. We worked with our teams as to better sync up when we're spending the dollars on the production and getting that more in line with industry standards. When you're part of a bigger organization, the cash management is just totally different. It's not necessarily based on just what Starz's needs are. So we feel like we're getting that into a really good place now as we move into '26. There's a little bit of work to do here in the first part of the year. But we feel like we're on a really good glide path to improve our spend. And we see content spend coming in under about $650 million next year. From a P&L cadence, you'll see very consistent over the year, especially in the first 3 quarters. The fourth quarter in '26 will be a more positive quarter, but the first 3 will be very consistent. It won't be as choppy as you've seen in the past.

David Joyce, Analyst

Okay. And on my other question, I see you've got $41 million in production loans now. How many projects is that for? Is that just 'Fightland'? Or is that a couple of others? And how many originals do you think will be in production by the time you're exiting 2026?

Scott MacDonald, CFO

That production loan is specifically for 'Fightland'. We find it to be a very cost-effective way to manage our capital. We plan to use these loans to align our cash flows with our shows. As we approve new shows, we anticipate acquiring production loans for them as well. This process will take time, and the loans will accumulate gradually. Eventually, each show will be completed, and the loans will be repaid. We expect this to create a fairly stable balance after we finish this year.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Vikram Kesavabhotla with Baird.

Vikram Kesavabhotla, Analyst

I wanted to follow up on the co-commission deal with Sky. Can you talk more about why they were the right partner? And from a higher level, when you look at the content slate that you have planned, how would you characterize the demand environment for your programming internationally?

Jeffrey Hirsch, CEO

Vikram, it's Jeff. Thanks for the question. Look, we think that we've seen in the past when we were in the international business before that the U.K. market is an incredible market for all of our shows. And over time, that has actually expanded into France as well. And so we think there's a real big appetite for our content in some of the biggest international markets. We've had a great relationship with Sky. We've licensed 'Amadeus' from them. We've licensed 'Sweetpea' from them. And so we have an ongoing relationship with them. I think they're very interested in what we have in production, and I think there's others that will be as well. And so I think the slate that we've designed, we've obviously designed it with international revenue in mind. And I expect that to continue to grow as we get more ownership back onto the network and own our own library.

Vikram Kesavabhotla, Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And then you referenced the pricing strategy a few times in your previous answers. Can you just elaborate more on your philosophy there? I mean do you think there's one way for you to raise price on your subscriptions over time? And how do you plan to manage the cadence of that going forward?

Jeffrey Hirsch, CEO

Yes. So as we said and we'll continue to say, we're a complementary service. We've always wanted to be underpriced, way underpriced of the broad-based streamers out there. And so as they continue to raise rates, it gives us room to raise rates. You've seen the broad-based streamers raise anywhere from $1 to $3 over the last couple of years. So it's created a lot of room for us to have some pricing power against the broad-based streamers. And we'll continue to look at that right time, right place, right slate to determine whether that's right for our consumers. So we'll watch the industry, watch the broad-based streamers, and we'll make decisions based on where we think that's right to drop that in.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from David Karnovsky with JPMorgan.

Douglas Samuel Wardlaw, Analyst

Doug Wardlaw on for David. I just wanted to get an idea of how you guys think about relying on spin-offs or reliable shows like 'Power' and 'Outlander' versus new originals. Obviously, each piece of content kind of plays a large part on what sub growth looks like in the quarter. So I guess, long term, how you weigh starting a new show versus a spin-off of sure thing?

Alison Hoffman, President of Starz Networks

Thank you for the question. Franchising is a significant strength for us at Starz. We have successfully expanded 'Power' into three successful spin-offs, which are currently in production, serving as strong drivers of engagement and customer acquisition for our business. Similarly, 'Outlander' has been on the air since 2014 and continues to maintain a large, engaged fan base. We also launched 'Blood of My Blood' last season. These franchises not only engage audiences but also serve as platforms for introducing new shows. You'll see us utilizing these established franchises to launch new intellectual properties and connect audiences from one show to another as we market and grow our total addressable market with new viewers. This approach is an essential aspect of our programming strategy, which we carefully consider when making investments and scheduling.

Operator, Operator

And the last question will come from Matthew Harrigan with Benchmark.

Matthew Harrigan, Analyst

I should probably apologize for going on about this, but what is your reaction to Seedance? It created a lot of market volatility. Looking at things more broadly, do you see any additional benefits from your AI initiatives in terms of development? Additionally, how does the development process compare to when you were under Lionsgate? What aspects are you focusing on or adjusting to move faster and better cater to your audience?

Jeffrey Hirsch, CEO

It's Jeff. Thank you for the question. Regarding AI, it's a powerful tool for enhancing our business. We are currently utilizing it in several areas, particularly in content creation and cost reduction, as demonstrated with 'Spartacus.' It has proven effective for managing large scenes in that project. Additionally, AI can streamline internal training processes, saving employees valuable time. With our extensive D2C business, which has over a decade of acquisition, retention, and pricing data, combined with our content library and strategic scheduling to optimize lifetime value and reduce customer churn, AI tools can significantly enhance our efficiency and profitability. While I believe AI will serve as an additional resource for the industry, the creative process will remain more art than science. We are enthusiastic about employing AI, yet our business has thrived on the distinctive success of our original content, which is challenging to replicate. To address your second question, Lionsgate has been an excellent television producer, and we have enjoyed a strong nine-year partnership with Kevin and his team. This relationship is expected to continue, particularly with the 'Power Universe' collaboration. As we work on rebuilding our library, we gain more control over front-end costs and establish a direct connection with our producing partners. This transition also opens up new revenue streams internationally that we couldn't access while being studio-owned. These are the two main aspects: improved control and increased revenue. Nevertheless, we remain closely aligned with Lionsgate on many of our significant shows, as they serve as our international sales agent. I believe Packer is doing an outstanding job maximizing our revenue in that area, and I foresee our partnership enduring for a long time, which we are excited about.

Matthew Harrigan, Analyst

It would be interesting to see what your stock does now.

Nilay Shah, Investor Relations

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone. Please refer to the News and Events tab under the Investor Relations section of our website for a discussion of certain non-GAAP forward-looking measures discussed on this call. Thanks, everyone.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. This concludes the conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.