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Constellation Brands, Inc. Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call

Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ)

Earnings Call FY2027 Q1 Call date: 2026-06-30 Concluded
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Call highlights

Constellation Brands reported Q1 FY2027 net sales of $2,433M, down 3% reported, but operating income rose 18% to $845M and EPS grew 31% to $3.79, while the company continued dollar share gains in the U.S. beer category and returned over $400M to shareholders via buybacks and dividends.

“As we look forward into Q2 and Q3, we would still expect gross margins to be strong, but we will see some incremental headwinds as it relates to operating margins. Keeping in mind, we've increased our marketing spend expectations for the full year to drive incremental marketing investment, particularly around the World Cup and college football and the NFL. So you'll see in Q2 and in Q3 a spike in marketing as a percent of net sales. As we said in our prepared remarks, that'll be over the 10% in those two quarters.”

— Garth Hankinson, CFO · jump to moment
Bullish
  • Operating income grew 18% to $845M in Q1 FY2027 on a reported basis
  • EPS increased 31% to $3.79 in Q1 FY2027 on a reported basis
  • Continued to deliver leading dollar share gains in the beer category across U.S. tracked channels
  • Returned over $400 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends
  • Corona Non-Alcohol posting strong double-digit growth and now the #4 brand in its category
  • Modelo Especial continuing momentum as a scaled growth brand in the portfolio
Bearish
  • Net sales declined 3% to $2,433M reported and declined 3% on an organic basis in Q1 FY2027
  • CEO noted the quarter reflected a continuation of the dynamic consumer backdrop and discretionary spending pressure
  • Texas and Florida markets continue to be challenged, characterized as a macroeconomic headwind for the consumer
  • CFO acknowledged Q2 shipment vs. depletion relationship will be 'wonky' due to Q1 over-shipping and prior-year de-stocking comparisons

Guidance

from the 8-K filed Jun 30, 2026
Metric Period Guided
Reported EPS outlook table Initiated Fiscal Year Ending February 28, 2027 $11.50 – $12.20
Enterprise organic net sales growth (decline) Initiated Fiscal 2027 -1% – 1%
Beer net sales growth (decline) Initiated Fiscal 2027 -1% – 1%
Wine and Spirits organic net sales growth (decline) Initiated Fiscal 2027 -1% – 1%
Enterprise operating margin (reported and comparable) Initiated Fiscal 2027 32% – 33%
Beer operating margin Initiated Fiscal 2027 37% – 38%
Wine and Spirits operating margin Initiated Fiscal 2027 5% – 6%
Tax rate (reported) Initiated Fiscal 2027 at least 17%
Tax rate (comparable) Initiated Fiscal 2027 at least 20%
Operating cash flow Initiated Fiscal 2027 $2.4B – $2.5B
Capital expenditures Initiated Fiscal 2027 at least $800M
Free cash flow Initiated Fiscal 2027 $1.6B – $1.7B

Transcript

Verified speakers · tap a word to jump the audio 39:40 Audio
Operator

Greetings. Welcome to the Constellation Brand's Fiscal Year 27 First Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. The question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone today should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note that this conference is being recorded. At this time, I'll turn the conference over to Blair Venema, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may now begin, Blair.

Blair Venema Head of Investor Relations

Good morning, all, and welcome to Consolation Brand's Q1 Fiscal 27 Conference Call. I'm joined this morning by Nick Fink, our CEO, and Garth Hankinson, our CFO. Before we proceed, we trust you had the opportunity to review the news release and CEO CFO commentary made available in the investor section of our company's website, www.cbrands.com. On that note, as a reminder, reconciliations between the most directly comparable gap measure and any non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call are included in the news release and website. We also encourage you to refer to the news release and Constellation's SEC filings for risk factors that may impact forward-looking statements made on this call. Before turning it over to Nick to kick things off, please keep in mind that, as usual, answers provided today will be referencing comparable results unless otherwise specified. Lastly, in line with prior quarters, I would ask that you limit yourselves to one question per person, which will help us end our call on time. Thanks in advance, and now over to you, Nick.

Speaker 7

Thanks, Blair. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Before we get into the Q&A, I'd like to share a few observations from my first two and a half months as CEO of Constellation Brands. Having spent significant time in the market over the last several months, I am increasingly confident in the enduring strength of our brands and the role they continue to play in consumers' lives, even in periods when discretionary spending is more challenged. Over time, we have repeatedly shown an ability to create demand and scale brands through a combination of consumer insights, commercial execution, and disciplined investment. That capability is reflected in the strength of our portfolio today. Whether it's Modelo, Corona, Pacifico, Kim Crawford, or MeCompo, these are brands that stride identities, deep consumer connections, and enduring relevance. I also believe some of our greatest opportunities remain directly in front of us. As brands become larger and more established, it is important to find new ways to remain relevant in consumers' lives. That requires a deeper understanding of behavior, motivations, and the moments that matter most to consumers. That's an area where I believe we have significant strengths and meaningful opportunity, leveraging strong commercial capabilities, rich consumer insights, and increasingly powerful data and technology tools that can help us move faster and make effective decisions. My focus is on ensuring that we continue to build on those advantages. And lastly, I believe the most successful companies are willing to challenge their own assumptions about where future incremental growth will come from while still executing with excellence in the core. We have a strong portfolio and attractive positions today, but we also need to maintain a forward-looking perspective about where consumer demand is heading and how we can leverage our capabilities to continue to create value through discipline, investment, and execution. Across all three areas, one common theme is the importance of developing world-class insights. The better we understand consumers and emerging trends, the better position we'll be to allocate resources, execute effectively, and create sustainable growth. So while the quarter reflected a continuation of the dynamic consumer backdrop that we have been operating in of as late, my confidence in the long-term opportunity for this business remains strong. We have exceptional brands, outstanding people, and a set of capabilities that position us well for the future. Now back over to you, Operator, for any questions.

Operator

We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. In the interest of time, we ask you to please limit yourself to one question. If you'd like to ask a question, you may press star 1 on your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you'd like to withdraw your question from the queue. Just when you're using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Thank you, and our first question is from the line of Nadine Sarwat with Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.

Nadine Sarwat Analyst — Bernstein

All right, guys. Thank you for taking my question. Nick, your prepared remarks touched a lot on your refined strategy for Constellation. So perhaps a two-part question from me on strategy. First, you intend to deploy a different playbook to sustain growth at scale versus scaling emerging brands. How could that different playbook look like in practice? And then second, you called out exploring white spaces where you have a right to win. Is this organically, through acquisitions? And what white spaces are you seeing as most attractive today? Thank you.

Speaker 7

Sure. And thank you for the question. I'd be happy to give some perspective, Nadine. So, you know, I think there's little doubt about our capability to scale brands. So, you know, we've got this incredible track record, and as I've spent time, you know, much deeper into it with the teams, as well as, you know, just getting out into the market without distributors talking about it, you know, there is an execution playbook, it's disciplined, and, you know, frankly, it's the best I've seen. And it's thoughtful, it's considered, and there is a way in which we build distribution, we build awareness, we do it in a sustainable fashion that we know is going to hold over the very long run. And, you know, you've seen us do that over many decades, you know, brands like Corona now continuing the job of Modelo and, you know, some great rising stars in the portfolio where we'll continue to do that. So little doubt, and I'd say that, you know, best of course ability there. You know, you then go to some of the, you know, places where we've scaled a brand, and, you know, I look at a brand like Corona, where the brand metrics are phenomenal. You know, most love beer brand. You know, we've got great distribution. We've got great awareness. Really, you know, brand health sort of green across the board. the the way to continue to maintain and grow a brand like that will be different to the playbook in which we're driving awareness and driving distribution and there's still opportunities there becomes much more about saliency and relevance connecting with the consumer where they are understanding you know rgm and price pack architecture you're connecting into the right cultural moments uh being visible in the places where they are in the way that they want to interact, you know, connecting into the right types of occasions. You know, it is a different playbook, but it is one that many great consumer products companies do at scale and do very well. And I think it's a place where, you know, we'll continue to sharpen the capability and get after that. And if we can do, you know, both of those things, there is a ton of valuation to be There's no question in my mind. And then you go to the third place you referenced, which is white spaces. And, you know, we have a consumer that's evolving quickly. We have a customer that's evolving quickly. We have shelves, right, that are evolving and look very different to the way they looked five years ago, ten years ago. And there is a lot happening. And so being open-minded to, you know, what is happening in those spaces, what are fads and what are trends, being able to know the difference between those things, knowing what's sustainable, what's not sustainable. seeing where momentum exists and then in a thoughtful and disciplined way being able to get after that and so an example for you know already in our portfolio you take rona non-alcohol that here's a brand that we have strong double digit growth behind we're now number four in the category you know that's a space we weren't playing in should we be putting more fuel on that fire because you know the fire's burning and and you know That's a great example of, you know, Whitespace didn't really exist for this company. Now we've got a toe in the water. Do we want to go double down on something that we've already got some real momentum behind and be willing to invest, again, in a disciplined way? You know, I'm not talking about, you know, going out and making, you know, huge bets and hoping it comes. But, you know, we, I think, have done a much better job over the last couple years of developing test and learn capabilities, these ways to go, you know, try one market versus a different market, see what works, see where we're going to accelerate, see where we want to be agile and change. And, you know, that would be an example of a place where we might go do something like

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Filippo Falerni with Citi. Please receive your question.

Filippo Falerni Analyst — Citi

Hi, good morning, everyone. So you called out in the prepare remarks as being pretty volatile, start of the year, strong March, and then softer, April and May. So I was hoping you can give us a little more color what you're seeing in June, especially given the gas prices have moderated a bit more recently. Are you seeing an improvement in consumption trends as gas prices come down? And then also, obviously, in June we've had three weeks of World Cup, so maybe you can give us some perspective there on the consumption on your brands around World Cup and whether we should see a further potential improvement in the on-premise business where a lot of those occasions potentially reside. Thank you so much.

Speaker 7

Sure. I'll be happy to jump in with some perspective, and Garth can perhaps share some color as well. There's no question it's a volatile quarter. I mean, you saw and you can see it in all the Circona and other data, right, a very strong march out of the gates and, as I would say, in a more normalized consumer environment, a lot of great interaction with both us and the category, but particularly our brands resonating very strongly. And then a massive spike in gas prices, and we did see the consumer respond by slowing down, and I think not to be unexpected, and that's not just us. I mean, as we've talked to even other companies in the consumer field, you know, traffic's down, a lot of choices being made. And as we ended the quarter, got into the early part of this quarter, and some of those headwinds have moderated, we've started to see a, you know, modestly acceleration. I wouldn't say back to where we were much, but, you know, a healthy return to some growth rates. And, you know, the Circona data, just even for the last week, was very encouraging. Not just category, but really around our brands, you know, which are somewhat more pre-impositioned and very attractive to the consumer. We saw, you know, some very strong numbers as consumers get to make the choices that they want to make and would like to make. And so, you know, encouraging in a somewhat more normalized environment that the portfolio is more than holding its own and responding really well. And then certainly, you know, it's been great to see, you know, both World Cup and, you know, and some of the energy that we saw in one of our key markets like New York run, the Knicks, which was, you know, to me, I think, yes, some lifts from that. But, you know, even just more importantly, consumers engaging in that beer occasion, you know, coming together in the on-premise, in the off-premise. You know, the pictures from New York I thought were remarkable, just to see young people being together, you know, watching the game projected on the sides of buildings. And those are beer occasions, right? It's just a great reminder to that consumer of the role that this category can play in their lives. And I think having, you know, these great events rolling through the summer could be quite meaningful in that regard. Anything to add? I think you hit it all, Nick.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Lauren Lieberman with Barclays. I'll just use your question.

Lauren Lieberman Analyst — Barclays

Thanks so much. Just getting to the quarter itself, I was struck by the fixed cost leverage that it looks like you enjoyed this quarter with the gross margins, the margins revere 39%. So I just wanted to talk a little bit about the drivers of that. But, you know, the 1.8% shipment growth is certainly better than what was anticipated, but it's a high bar for the margin with volumes still sub 2%. So just kind of curious as we think about that going forward, you're absorbing incremental depreciation, but again, the strength of the margin in the quarter was particularly strong. I just want to understand the building blocks better so we can think about the path forward.

Hey, Orr, thanks for the question. And really, you hit on it. We had about 30 basis points of benefits this quarter versus last year, really due to fixed overhead absorption, largely due to fixed overhead absorption, as you say, related to the higher shipment. In addition to that, we also continue to make great progress on our cost savings agenda, and that was certainly a benefit. We also had 20 basis points of favorability due to pricing net of NICs. And that was offset by about 30 basis points of currency headwinds and other small things that will flow through cost of goods. So that really is what drove the favorability on gross profit margins. On operating margins, we declined 10 basis points. We had the 20 basis points of favorability on gross margin expansion, but we had 20 basis points headwinds on increased SG&A. similar to last year, as we've added employees to support Veracruz going live later this year. We've brought those folks online, and until Veracruz commissions, they will sit in SG&A rather than COGS. And then we have 10 basis points of headwinds related to incremental marketing, mostly to support the World Cup that is happening now, as we indicated at our April earnings call. As we look forward into Q2 and Q3, we would still expect gross margins to be strong, but we will see some incremental headwinds as it relates to operating margins. Keeping in mind, we've increased our marketing spend expectations for the full year to drive incremental marketing investment, particularly around the World Cup and college football and the NFL. So you'll see in Q2 and in Q3 a spike in marketing as a percent of net sales. As we said in our prepared remarks, that will be over the 10% in those two quarters. And then in Q2 and Q3, we will see SG&A increases. There are a bit more material in Q1. A big part of that is lapping last year's lower compensation benefits related to incentive income or incentive compensation.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Dara Moussani with Morgan Stanley. Please just see if you have a question.

Hey, good morning. You mentioned in the prepared remarks you're looking to extend participation across more occasions. Just high level, can you give us a bit more detail there on how you execute that? Is it more marketing on base brands and refining that? Is it more through innovation? Is it more through moving into new areas or the white spaces? through M&A, and just wanted to get a bit more detail on how specifically you do that. And then obviously moving into white spaces potentially is a piece of that. So how significant a focus do you expect the white space expansion to be just relative to driving base business brand trends?

Speaker 7

Yeah, I'll start with that. Look, I think the headline is there will be no greater way we can create value than nailing this with our core brands and core portfolio, period, right? And so, you know, when I talk about an understanding of consumer occasions, it's really sort of taking the blinders off of not just thinking about our brands as they compete versus another beer or to be even more narrow, you know, Mexican beer. but actually how do you look more broadly at what is the choice that your consumer is making in that moment, right? We, and the team does some fantastic work, but, you know, we have a whole wheel of identified different consumer occasions. And so, and then we make focused choices, like here's where we want to compete and here's the moments where maybe, you know, we're happy if you take our product, but we're not spending to go win that moment in the same degree, but then understanding against other, not just other, beers for the beer brands, look at 501 Spurs brands as well, but not just within your category, but what choices, as consumers increasingly cross over, what choices are they making? And then how do you remain salient and you win, even with the core portfolio in that moment? And if you can do that, then you can actually, even within the beer portfolio, start to create some differentiation amongst our brands, right? They have different brand personas. They appeal to, they have a lot of similarities, but appeal to slightly different consumer groups, different age cohorts, maybe different moments. You see some of the work that we're doing behind Pacifico, which is more lifestyle oriented, you know, more around adventure. It doesn't necessarily play in some of the same moments. And if we're able to do that, then you expand the aperture of what these brains can do, how they can play. And frankly, you know, I think you can get after a larger addressable moment and compete in a greater way as a portfolio as opposed to duplicating some of the activities. And so that's first and foremost. You know, to the extent that within that as well, you know, we identify other opportunities where the consumer, you know, is looking for something, and we think that is a space in which we can participate in a meaningful but disciplined way, you know, I think we should consider that as well. And I gave the example earlier of, you know, Corona non-alk, right? That business is going strong double digits. Our consumers are telling us they love the product. We haven't put a ton behind it yet. Should we start to participate at that, not just think of it as a product, but what is the occasion in which they're consuming that product? Is it an occasion where they don't want alcohol at all? There's an occasion where they're actually combining, you know, use of it with some of our alcoholic products and extending the occasion. I think having that very strong consumer insight then definitely leads to an ability to execute in a much more targeted way and grow both the addressable moment as well as our share of that moment.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Chris Carey with Wells Fargo. Please share with your question.

Chris Carey Analyst — Wells Fargo

Hi. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask about, I guess, the complexity of, or the complexion, rather, of the portfolio. Modelo Especial remains sluggish. Corona Extra, you know, has obviously been a bit of a challenge. And you're seeing, you know, kind of tremendous growth in other parts of the portfolio that are lifting up the portfolio just a bit. But I think the sustainability of some of those faster growth offerings feels quite durable. But, you know, there remains question marks around, most importantly, Corona Extra, and then Modelo, a sociologist, you know, getting back to a bit of growth. Can you just give us a bit more context on how you see these two brands specifically and a bit more detail on what you're doing to reaccelerate? And maybe most specifically with Corona Extra, given the duration of the headwinds that the brand has seen. Thanks so much.

Speaker 7

Yeah, sure. Happy to do so. And I'll start off by vehemently agreeing with you on the sustainability of the things in the portfolio that are growing as strongly as they're growing. And I say that because of the very disciplined way in which the team's going about achieving that growth, driving awareness. driving distribution, but doing those two things in concert with each other and making sure that we don't get ahead of ourselves so that we're building it in a very disciplined way. And I've been incredibly impressed as I've spent time with our team and our distributors, how they do that. And I've seen it done differently with less discipline and less sustainability. And I think the way that we're doing it is best in class. So I really agree with you on that. You're right to point out some of the challenges and the headwinds on Especial and Extra. And I think that's fair. And that goes to my earlier point of, you know, once things are scaled, the toolkit for continuing to both maintain and then grow those brands becomes different. Now, in the case of Modelo, Especial, there is still room to go. We haven't finished the job scaling that brand. There is still a significant gap to distribution. Unaided awareness is remarkably low, given that this is the number one value brand by value in the marketplace, which is actually quite an incredible opportunity as we continue to drive awareness, and it becomes more and more of a general population brand. So the job is yet to be finished on Modelo, especially now we will finish the job. But we need to develop the very sharp toolkit of what do you do as that becomes fully scaled and how do you continue to drive saliency and relevance, which gets us to corona and developing that playbook on extra, but that would be a playbook that we'll then deploy for anything that is scaled. And that becomes a bit of a different playbook. You're not driving awareness and distribution anymore. You're driving saliency, relevance, interacting with consumers in the moment, and really being both available to them, which is top of mind awareness and distribution, but activating in that moment, being the thing that they choose. And that is a somewhat different skill, one that there are plenty of companies out there that have developed really, really well, and that we need to demonstrate that we can bring. Now, I will tell you, over the course of my career, I've worked on some tired brands. I've rebuilt some tired brands and rejuvenated tired brands. Our brands are not tired. They have some of the most, and I'm just saying this sincerely, remarkable brand health of any brands I've ever seen. And you start with Corona Extra, just start with most loved beer. Most loved beer, right? Still number one in New York City. They're cultural icons of this country. Still number one in Miami. So you're starting with this really powerful foundation. We need to dial up the, you know, everyday activation switch, and I have absolute confidence that with the right focus there, that is something that we can do that will not just help Corona Extra, but then will allow us to continue to deploy those capabilities against anything else we scale over time.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Rob Ottenstein with Evercore ISI. Please receive your question.

Robert Ottenstein Analyst — Evercore ISI

Great. Thank you very much. And in a way, this is kind of a follow-on to the last question. You know, as you said, and I think we'd all agree, you have some amazing brands. You know, the performance has been tough. Obviously, there's a lot of macro factors that are out of your control. So let's just focus on things that are in your control. And I do know it's early days for you. But, you know, for over a year, you didn't have a head of sales, right? Bill Renspey, very well regarded, left, I think, in March of 25. And then now you've hired, you know, Jack Edwards from Diageo Beer, who has a fantastic reputation. I think he started about a month or two ago. So you've got the great brands, you're in a great category in many ways. Have you had a chance to sit down with Jack yet and talk about what is under your control in terms of driving execution with distributors, with retailers to make sure that you're best leveraging the remarkable brands that you actually do have? And, again, I know it's early days on this, but are there a couple of things that maybe you can point out that are areas in which, you know, you're going to be working with Jack and, you know, look like, you know, reasonable wins and objectives over the next six months that can improve the trajectory in terms of what you can control? Thank you.

Speaker 7

I'm happy to share a few thoughts. So it'll be overly polygraphic about some of the competitive ideas that we have, but rest assured that they're there. But, you know, firstly, I'll start by acknowledging your point. I think, yes, indeed, you know, macro headwinds we talked about, you know, generally in the economy and, you know, some things we saw both in the quarter.

And, by the way, our consumer, even more adversely impacted by that.

Speaker 7

And while that gap has improved, there is still a gap that we're seeing within the Hispanic zip codes relative to GenPOP. So, you know, we're cycling through those headwinds. That said, you're right. We don't sit and make excuses. We think about what it is that we have that's under control that we can go execute. And so, you know, I've talked about there are things like, you know, still distribution gaps in Medela, still awareness gaps. We can continue to drive those. that is within our control. There is more, you know, I think we can do on a brand like RunXer. We just talked about that, right? And that might be, you know, getting more tactical in the field, in the on-premise, in the places where our consumers live and breathe. I think that is with our control. And then as, you know, as Jack is coming, you know, on board and we're spending more time together, it's really some of that in-field execution, which has been, you know, really good, that we can always push ourselves to improve more, you know, thinking about our pack price architecture, you know, thinking about our revenue management. How do we meet the consumer where the consumer is in an increasingly K-shaped economy, right? We're seeing some really interesting activity across our pack sizes where, you know, we have by far the largest share of both the small pack size and the larger sharing pack size. I think that's a really interesting place to play, but you've got to make it really available to your consumer and make sure they can find it and discover it. And, you know, does that start to get our portfolio to a place where, and I was gaining some of the headwinds, it is more accessible. So those are some of the ideas that we're working on. And, again, I think in his early days, Jack has been out on the road nonstop since he started. And I think as he absorbs and digests, you know, everything he's seeing will continue to generate new ideas. But we're very excited to have him on board. He's a real talent.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Bonnie Herzog Analyst — Goldman Sachs

All right. Good morning, everyone. I had a question on your FY27 Gynes. You know, you maintain your beer net sales Gynes, you know, despite strong shipments in the quarter. And then comparisons do become pretty favorable in FQ2 and Q3. So I guess I wanted to understand if the decision to maintain Gynes reflects, I don't know, an abundance of caution regarding the dynamic consumer environment. And I guess, you know, maybe touch on that, especially with the Hispanic consumer. or are there specific distribution or maybe shipment headwinds in the next few quarters that we should be thinking about? Thank you.

Sure, Bonnie. Thanks for the question. I'll start, and then, Nick, you can weigh in, too. I mean, look, we're off to a solid start today. There's no denying that. But as we look to the balance of the year and as we laid out in April, this continues to be a rather dynamic operating environment, right, with in some instances, you know, low visibility. Nick referenced earlier around how we started the quarter and then how we ended the quarter and, again, how things kind of moved around. Nick referenced the impact on gas prices in Q1. If you look at the end of our fiscal year and then at the peak of Q1, gas prices were up well over 50% across the U.S. on average. That was more than $1.60 a gallon, if you look at it on that rate. You know, in a market like California, gas prices at its peak were up 40 percent, Illinois 70 percent, New York, Florida, Texas up over 50 percent. You know, inflation was up largely due to a few prices, but there were other things that kept inflation a bit higher than anyone would like. So that's a little bit long-winded to say there are a lot of things that are going around in the market that just give us uncertainty, and while we're off to a good start, we don't think that after one good quarter that we want to change what the outlook is for the full year, just giving some of the limited visibility we have on those macroeconomic metrics. And then you want to add? No, completely agree.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Peter Grom with UBS. Let's just see if you have a question.

thank you operator and good morning everyone um i wanted to follow up on the response to flipo's question earlier and nick i think you mentioned thus far in june you've kind of seen

Peter Grom Analyst — UBS

return to healthy growth rates but not at large levels and look this may be a hard question to answer but when you think about the improvement is there a way to parse out how much of that's related to kind of world cup or maybe some of these unique events that are are ending here in a few weeks versus maybe signs that the consumer pressure is abating? And I guess the premise of the question is really just trying to understand whether you think this improvement we've seen kind of quarter to date is durable as we look ahead. Thanks so much.

Yeah, look, it's a great question, and it's one that, you know,

Speaker 7

we're asking ourselves and we're going to continue to do, you know, the work and analysis to really get our heads around as we see how the rest of the year develops and then how we can continue to drive the momentum where the momentum and sustainable, but, you know, but I will tell you from the early region and yet, you know, by the early, right, we're just like still a few weeks, I don't know we're a few weeks in, but we're just a few weeks in. It does seem to us to be pretty broad based, right? I mean, we can get to some account data or some on-premise data where you do see, you know, big spikes around a game or in that particular geography, but it's not like, you You know, you then look to the rest of the country and you're seeing a vastly different result, you know, as an average, right? You can see a big spike here, but it's not moving the needle for everything. So that's fairly broad based. You know, Texas and California continue to be, sorry, Texas and Florida, I should say, continue to be challenged. California has been pretty good. And, you know, that hasn't necessarily changed as a result of the World Cup. We think that is more of a macro economically led headwind for our consumer in particular in those geographies. And we've seen that sort of continue notwithstanding the improved performance. And so, you know, it does look like the return of health to us might be more to do with some of the headwinds abating than, you know, any kind of one time tailwinds. But as I said earlier, you know, it still doesn't hurt that you certainly have the World Cup event, you know, that you had to mix the major market and that, you know, people are just getting together and enjoying that year occasion, which we think is also just a key future unlock of, you know, people remembering how important it is to come together to socialize and the role that our products can play in that.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Peter Galbot with Bank of America. Pleased to see you with your question.

Peter Galbo Analyst — Bank of America

hey uh good morning guys um maybe just to put a finer point on on those last few questions around q2 garth i was hoping just for maybe a little bit more clarity um on the shipment side for for q2 there's a lot of i think moving pieces in in the quarter you know you kind of over shipped i think in q1 ahead of where you normally seasonally would be um you have the lap versus last year i think there was some de-stocking so maybe you can just help us think through the relationship for Q2 between absolute shipments and depletions? Because I know that the growth rates between the two can be a bit wonky. Thanks very much. Yeah, just, you know, to start on that,

let me just say that, you know, on a full-year basis, we would expect, as we always do, that shipments and depletions would align with one another, very closely align with one another. In Q1, which is typical for us in every fiscal year, you know, we ship ahead of depletions to support the key summer sowing season. So that's fairly typical. Then as we move through the year, we will see some of that become more in line with one another, again supporting the fact that when we get to the end of the fiscal year, shipments and depletions will essentially equal one another.

Operator

Thank you. Our final question is from the line of Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler. Please receive

Michael Lavery Analyst — Piper Sandler

your question. Thank you. Good morning. Just as you think about the consumer and occasions, one of the things we've seen just as kind of a stepped-up level of innovation focus is higher ABV, mostly in RTDs, but certainly in the consumer's mind. Some of the lines get blurry, and it's in the same consideration set very often. But in most situations, it wouldn't seem like it has a different consumption effect on the consumer. It's more it looks like a volume headwind if they get more bang for the buck. But with maybe only a modest mix lift, it would seem at a high level to be category value dilutive. How do you think about just competing against that, participating in it? You know, kind of how do you weigh some of maybe the tradeoffs and, you know, maybe risks or opportunities in terms of just how, you know, that innovation thread evolves?

Speaker 7

It's an interesting question. And, look, you know, we talk a lot about K-shaped economy, and you also see sort of, you know, K-shaped consumer behavior, right? So you've seen that behavior, which I agree with you, I think is a value-driven behavior. You're seeing, you know, other parts of the K where, you know, it's sort of, you know, I want a great premium product. Like think about what's happening, you know, Corona not out where, you know, we've got very strong double-digit growth. No alcohol, right? It's about I'm willing to pay more to have a very premium experience with a great tasting liquid. And so we continue to see that there's both ends of that K, and I think for us, we just need to be thoughtful about where we want to play and participate. So I'd say we have a toe in the water on the higher ABV stuff with both the small ITD brand as well as some of the stuff that we're doing with our Chilada business, which now would be the third largest RTD business if we measured it that way. So, you know, a good example of this company's ability to innovate into something, you know, like RTDs, but do it in a way that is thoughtful and sustainable and true to our brands. And, you know, our Suprema product plays there. You know, we need to be thoughtful about what does that impact on the whole portfolio? Are we meeting the consumer where they are with what they drink and what they would like? and then to the earlier question about controlling the controllables then how do we go execute that in field because you've got to make sure if you want to play in something like that that the consumer knows that you are there and can find you which I think is probably some of the work to do so I think we need to be thoughtful about these emerging trends and be choiceful about which are the ones that we want to participate in or not I don't know So on a perspective where it's more or less dilutive, I'm not sure. I think it's probably just a consumer occasion. No, I agree with that.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question and answer session. We'll also conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines this time and have a wonderful day.

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