Earnings Call Transcript - SU Q4 2024

Operator, Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Suncor Energy Fourth Quarter 2024 Financial Results Call. Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Suncor Energy Senior Vice President of External Affairs, Mr. Troy Little. Please go ahead.

Troy Little, Senior Vice President of External Affairs

Thank you, operator, and good morning. Welcome to Suncor Energy’s fourth quarter earnings call. Please note that today’s comments contain forward-looking information. Actual results may differ materially from the expected results because of various risk factors and assumptions that are described in our fourth quarter earnings release as well as in our annual information form, both of which are available on our website, suncor.com. Certain financial measures referred to in these comments are not prescribed by Canadian generally accepted accounting principles. For a description of these financial measures, please see our fourth quarter earnings release. We will start with comments from Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer; followed by Kris Smith, Suncor’s Chief Financial Officer. Also on the call are Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President, Oil Sands; Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President, Downstream; and Shelley Powell, Senior Vice President, Operational Improvement and Support Services. Following the formal remarks, we’ll open up the call to questions. Now I’ll hand it over to Rich to share his comments.

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning. Suncor’s fourth quarter was about finishing 2024 strong and building momentum for 2025. I believe we accomplished both objectives. I’ll focus my comments on key aspects of the full year 2024. Kris will primarily focus on the fourth quarter results. Let me start with personnel safety, our top priority. As you’ve heard before, 2023 was our safest year ever. I am pleased to report 2024’s performance was as good as or better than 2023. Some statistics: the number of lost time injuries was down 30% year-on-year and down 60% over the last 2 years. Our lost time incident rate is tied for our best ever. The number of recordable injuries was down 16% year-on-year or 30% over the last 2 years, and our recordable incident rate in 2024 was indeed the best ever. Process safety, a function of our people, our work management processes, and our facilities. 2024’s performance was the best ever, a significant 30% better than our previous best, and it positions us within the first quartile in North America. Upstream production for the full year was 828,000 barrels a day, far and away the best year in company history, 51,000 barrels a day or 6.5% higher than our previous best, and 82,000 barrels a day or 11% higher than 2023, and 18,000 barrels a day above the high end of guidance. Full year Upgrader utilization was 98%, the highest annual average ever, 6% higher than our previous best. Three or four quarters in 2024 had utilization of 99% or higher in both the base plant and Syncrude achieved best ever performance. Added perspective on the 82,000 barrel a day increase from 2023 to 2024: about half of it is related to the fourth quarter ‘23 acquisition impact of Total’s 31% interest in Fort Hills. The other half is straight-up performance within the same asset base. Monthly, quarterly, and annual records were set across the company, led by Firebag at 234,000 barrels a day in ‘24, up 17,000 barrels a day or 8% year-on-year. Over the last 2 years, Firebag added 35,000 barrels a day or 18%. It is our most profitable asset and is internally known as the gift that keeps on giving. Refining throughput full year was 465,000 barrels a day, again, far and away the best year in our history, 24,000 barrels a day or 5.5% better than our previous best, and 44,000 barrels a day or 10.5% higher than 2023, and again, 20,000 barrels a day above the high end of guidance. Full year refining utilization was 100%, our highest annual average ever, 5% higher than our previous best. All four refineries were outstanding, ranging from 94% to 105% utilization. Edmonton, our most profitable refinery, led the pack with a record 105%. A fact for you: every major asset company-wide, upstream and downstream, operated at greater than 100% utilization for the entire fourth quarter. This is extraordinary performance and is a credit to Suncor teams company-wide. Refined product sales for the full year were 600,000 barrels a day, again, far and away the best year in company history. This was 46,000 barrels a day or 8% higher than our previous best and 47,000 barrels a day or 8.5% higher than 2023, 20,000 barrels a day above the high end of guidance. All four quarters in 2024 were the highest quarters in company history. In fact, it was back-to-back-to-back-to-back quarterly records. Suncor, we call that a four-peat; even Pat Reilly, former coach of the L.A. Lakers, would be jealous. Total OS&G was $13.1 billion, down $324 million in absolute dollars year-on-year. And this is despite 11% higher upstream production and 10.5% higher refining throughput. Let that soak in for a minute: 10% to 11% higher volumes and 2.5% lower absolute costs. Every major operated asset, upstream and downstream, delivered lower absolute and/or unit costs in ‘23 – or, sorry, ‘24 versus ‘23. I’ll offer another perspective on year-on-year cost management. Let’s assume that the fourth quarter ‘23 acquisition of Total’s 31% working interest in Fort Hills never happened. If you take out all the impacts of the additional ownership, production costs, apples-to-apples, 2024 versus 2023 performance with the exact same asset base. OS&G would have been down $1 billion, yet upstream production would have been up 37,000 barrels a day and refining throughput 44,000 barrels a day. My message here is that operating leverage is creating tremendous value company-wide. Volumetric delivery, asset utilization, and cost management each require discipline, determination, attention to detail, and a mindset that every barrel and every dollar matter. That is the mindset and culture of today’s Suncor. Total capital was $6.2 billion, more than $200 million below the midpoint of guidance. Again, discipline, attention to detail, and rigor in execution. Free funds flow stood at $7.4 billion in 2024, essentially flat with 2023. However, the business environment decreased free funds flow by about $1.5 billion year-on-year, downstream cracks, and sweet/sour synthetic differentials contributed. Capital was $500 million higher, as planned, in ‘24 versus ‘23. You’ll recall the two drivers there were Peter’s 55 new 400-ton haul trucks and opening two pits versus one pit in the Fort Hills North mine. Additionally, we had the absence of fourth quarter ‘23 tax pools from the Fort Hills acquisition of about $750 million. If you do the math, organizational self-help, and what Suncor teams delivered in volumes, costs, and margins added $2.75 billion in free funds flow year-on-year, essentially offsetting the headwinds dollar for dollar. Of that, we returned $5.7 billion in cash to shareholders, including buybacks of $2.9 billion, representing 4.3% of shares, and dividends of $2.8 billion. Taking you back 9 months to our Investor Day in May 2024, we communicated several big objectives over a 3-year period from 2024 through 2026: upstream production growth of 108,000 barrels a day, a $10 a barrel reduction in our corporate breakeven, a $3.3 billion increase in annual free funds flow, and an $8 billion net debt target, at which time we would shift to 100% buybacks. We told you we would report on our progress, so here we go. The goal of 108,000 barrel a day production growth had a target in 2024 of 60,000 barrels a day, and we achieved 82,000. The $10 a barrel reduction in our breakeven had a target in 2024 of $4 a barrel, and we achieved $7. The $3.3 billion increase in annual free funds flow had a target in 2024 of $1.3 billion, and we achieved $2.3 billion. The $8 billion net debt target, which was mid-2025, was achieved at the end of the third quarter of 2024, delivering on commitments, again, the culture of today’s Suncor. We’ve uploaded a presentation on the Events and Presentations page under the Investors section of our website where we detail the free funds flow update and the material shows the progress for the 3-year plan. We will continue to provide this to help save folks some analytical time. Bottom line, one year into a 3-year plan, we are exceeding every target established. In fact, we’ve essentially achieved target improvements for 2024 and ‘25 in the first year. We’re accelerating the capture of shareholder value, and that will continue this year now with a full year planned at 100% buybacks. Our objective in 2025 is to solidify the 2024 gains and proceed to capture the next tranche of value. My final comments: 2024's results are a credit to our people across the company, their expertise, their dedication, their determination; Suncor teams delivered. Personally, I am so proud to work with these people each day. With that, I’ll turn it over to Kris.

Kris Smith, Chief Financial Officer

Great. Thanks, Rich. Good morning, everyone. 2024, what a great year for the company and our shareholders; so much happened across our business last year. All of the operational cost performance that Rich just highlighted allowed us to generate substantial free funds flow, retire $1.1 billion in principal of our debt, hit our $8 billion net debt target early, move to returning 100% of excess funds to our shareholders, and of course, raise our dividend. All of which resulted in substantial return of cash to our investors in 2024 to the tune of $5.7 billion in dividends and share buybacks. And we are set up for continued improvement in 2025. But let’s first talk about the fourth quarter as we closed out the year very strongly, as you saw from our operational update in early January. Now first, with respect to the business environment in the quarter, we saw crude oil prices continue to weaken during the quarter with WTI averaging $70 a barrel, light heavy differential steady at $13 a barrel, and synthetic crude averaging a $0.85 barrel premium to WTI. On the refining side, we saw cracking margins decrease driven by weaker gasoline cracks. However, our 5221 refining index remained strong at $24.25 a barrel, which is $1.80 below Q3, driven primarily by lower cracks, offset by lower crude oil pricing. Finally, natural gas prices increased by $0.80 a GJ, averaging $1.45 in the quarter, but obviously remained attractively priced for natural gas consumers like our business. Turning to our operational performance in the quarter and building on Rich’s comments you just heard, we closed the year with exceptionally strong operational performance across the board. Total upstream production averaged 875,000 barrels a day in the quarter, including almost 818,000 barrels per day in Oil Sands and almost 58,000 barrels per day in E&P. This was the highest ever quarterly production in our history. Firebag averaged a record 250,000 barrels a day in the quarter. Fort Hills was above plan at 162,000 barrels per day and continues to deliver on its improvement plan. Upgrader utilization at base plant and Syncrude were very strong at 102% and 105%, respectively. Refinery throughput averaged 486,000 barrels per day or 104% utilization in the quarter. This is the second quarter in a row with all four refineries operating at or above 100% utilization, yet another first. Refined product sales averaged a record 613,000 barrels a day, and margin capture averaged 90% on a LIFO basis when compared to our 5221 index. This sales performance, which was up 38,000 barrels per day quarter-over-quarter, reflects both the high reliability of our refining assets and the strength of our integrated supply and marketing channels. We also continue to demonstrate operating leverage with total OS&G expense of $3.4 billion, which was flat quarter-over-quarter, while production and sales were up significantly in both the upstream and the downstream. Also in the quarter, we successfully completed the base plant cogeneration facility, which is now ramping up. This project will provide integrated steam and power to our base plant operations and the capability to export up to 800 megawatts of baseload electricity to Alberta’s power grid. This strong operational performance led to strong financial results in the quarter despite a drop in crude prices and refining cracks from Q3. We generated $3.5 billion in adjusted funds from operations or $2.78 per share in the quarter and adjusted operating earnings of $1.6 billion or $1.25 per share. In the quarter, Suncor returned $1.7 billion to shareholders, including $713 million in dividends, which reflects a 5% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.57 per share, underpinned by sustained operational improvements across the business and progress on our free funds flow growth initiatives. This is consistent with our commitment to a steadily growing and sustainable dividend. Share buybacks in the quarter totaled $1 billion, reflecting a step-up in share repurchases with the shift to returning 100% of excess funds to shareholders now that we’re at our net debt target. Speaking of which, we were very pleased that we hit our $8 billion net debt target early, and it is now down $3 billion from the end of ‘23 and $10 billion from our high watermark in 2020. In under 5 years, we’ve more than cut our net debt in half while expanding our free funds flow. As I indicated last quarter, you should expect our net debt to move up and down around that target from quarter to quarter as we manage working capital movements. In Q4, we saw a large release of working capital related to receivables, inventory and taxes, and expect to have a working capital increase in Q1. But rest assured, we are fully committed to returning maximum cash to shareholders per our capital allocation framework while prudently managing our business and balance sheet. Overall, fourth quarter performance is a result of our relentless focus on the fundamentals of our business and demonstrates our continued execution and acceleration of our $3.3 billion free funds flow growth target set out in our May Investor Day. And as Rich mentioned, we’ve uploaded a slide on our website specifically highlighting our progress towards that target. Now, before handing it back to Troy, I’d like to take a few moments – a few comments on our 2025 guidance released in December. We expect upstream production to average 810,000 to 840,000 barrels per day with continued strong production performance across our assets, including increased bitumen sales to market and factoring in planned maintenance, specifically planned downtime at base plant with the 91-day coke drum replacement project scheduled to start in the second quarter, and annual coker turnaround at both Upgrader 2 at Base Plant and Syncrude, both of which will be starting in the third quarter. Fort Hills has small planned turnarounds in both the second and fourth quarters. Downstream, we’re guiding to an average refinery utilization of 93% to 97%, which is higher than our 2024 guidance to reflect higher reliability, offset by planned maintenance activities at our Sarnia refinery starting in Q1 and our Edmonton refinery starting in Q2. Our capital guidance for 2025 of $6.1 billion to $6.3 billion is consistent with the plan outlined during our May Investor Day, including asset sustainment and maintenance capital largely consistent with 2024 guidance and economic investment capital, which is comprised of selective high-value investments, like the U1 coke drum replacement that I mentioned just a moment ago. 2025 is all about building on the incredible momentum sparked by the success that we saw in 2024. We’ve only begun to see the impact of the initiatives we’ve started in the last 1.5 years, and like we said during our May Investor Day, our focus is on growing the bottom line, free funds flow, which will ultimately drive increased returns for our shareholders. And rest assured, the entire organization is focused on not only delivering on our commitments but beating them. And with that, Troy, I’ll hand it back over to you.

Troy Little, Senior Vice President of External Affairs

Thank you, Kris. I’ll turn the call back to the operator to take some questions.

Operator, Operator

Thank you so much. Our first question is from Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Greg Pardy, Analyst

Yes, thanks. Good morning and thanks for the rundown. Rich, when you look at 2024, the organization drove huge operational improvement, both upstream and downstream. When you look at ‘25, does either segment shine more brightly, or is it still expected to be fairly balanced between the two?

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

Greg, let me start out answering your question, and I’m going to turn it over to my two all-star linebackers here on the left, Peter and Dave to supplement it. The philosophy we’re bringing about the business is to get the most out of our existing asset base, company-wide, looking at what the constraints are and what we can do to structurally change not only the performance but the potential of the organization. So that will continue. We got a good taste of success in ‘24, but we’re not done yet in ‘25. Peter and Dave, please comment from each of your businesses on your thoughts going forward.

Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President, Oil Sands

Yes, sure. Thanks, Rich. The way to think about it is on a daily basis, shift-by-shift, we’re really looking at where the constraints are in our production units. When we find those bottlenecks, we’re looking to see what technical work we can do to reengineer that to unlock additional barrels and move those barrels into the upgrading ecosystem. So I would say, in the Oil Sands segment, we absolutely have more potential that we’re looking at. These are low to no-cost debottlenecks that the teams are consistently evaluating.

Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President, Downstream

Thanks, Peter. Greg, great question. We were talking about this at our downstream leadership team meeting just yesterday, where the team was saying, do we need to re-rate or not? The conclusion was that we don’t think we’re done yet. It’s not the right time to re-rate because there’s still more potential in our capacities. The way we’ve been gaining increased capacity in the downstream is similar to Peter’s comments, and that informs how we might think about 2025 as well. We’re seeing shorter turnarounds as we drive for competitiveness. For example, during our Q2 turnaround in Sarnia, we moved some intermediate components for the first time ever, allowing more crude rate in Sarnia and more conversion capacity in Montreal. We will continue to look for more opportunities, and I think there’s potential upside in ‘25.

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

So just to circle back, we see opportunities across the enterprise, upstream and downstream. Is it more one than another? I don’t look at it like that. The overriding message is we’re not done yet.

Greg Pardy, Analyst

Okay, thanks for that. Very complete. Related to that, I know, Peter, you’ve talked a lot about sourcing bitumen across the organization. Can you discuss the multidimensional integration within Suncor that you’ve established?

Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President, Oil Sands

Yes, absolutely, Greg. It’s good to think about our upgrading capabilities more like we do refining. We can source bitumen from multiple sources within our production units in the region and move those barrels to whatever Upgraders require them when they’re needed and in largely the volumes that are required. Our goal is to keep those Upgraders full and be bitumen agnostic. So, if we need more bitumen in Syncrude, we can move barrels from Firebag, and similarly from Fort Hills as needed. We have a team that looks after value optimization, moving the right barrels of bitumen to maximize profits.

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

It's not only about maximum volumes, but also about what the market demands at points in time to produce the right products. The teams are increasingly integrated in their approach, and my overriding message is we are not done yet.

Greg Pardy, Analyst

Excellent. Thanks very much.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dennis Fong with CIBC. Please proceed.

Dennis Fong, Analyst

Hi, good morning and congratulations on the significant progress you’ve made to date on your plans and looking forward to 2025. My first question relates to Fort Hills. I was hoping for an update on mine progression. I know Peter discussed moving from the south pit to center and then from center to north. I wanted to understand more about that as well as heavy equipment deliveries and progress on the two cuts.

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

Peter?

Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President, Oil Sands

Yes, thanks, Dennis. We’re pleased with the development and establishment of the center pit and the north pit at Fort Hills. Currently, we have 10 large mining shovels in the north pit moving both overburden and ore to the crushers. There are five shovels in the center pit, and there’s only one left in the South pit that is doing the last cleanup of the pit walls and final ore. I would say I’m really pleased with the transition. Ore delivery is primarily from the center and north pits now. North Pit 1 is established, and North Pit 2 is coming later this year. We’re happy with that. Fort Hills continues to meet the commitments we set out in our 3-year reset plan regarding production and mine health. Regarding equipment delivery, we have received 45 of those 400-ton trucks throughout 2024, exactly on schedule from our supplier. We received four more trucks by the end of January, and the remainder will arrive by the end of February. So, it’s exactly on track with the equipment deliveries. We’re starting to see productivity in the mines improve. It’s about having the right class of equipment in the right places to generate maximum efficiency and move those tons at the lowest unit cost possible. We’re starting to see that, reflecting on the bottom line.

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

Peter, also comment on autonomous implementation. That’s a big part of your strategy. Where are you on that?

Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President, Oil Sands

We’ve achieved our plan to have all of the ore delivery at the base plant under autonomous trucking, completed in December. We set an objective to convert 91 trucks to autonomous operation by year-end, and that was accomplished, making the base plant Millennium Mine in North Steepbank the largest deployment of autonomous trucks in the world. We are pleased with the implementation of that technology and our ability to optimize it for maximum efficiency.

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

In our May investor deck, we noted that having fewer, larger, and autonomous trucks was a core part of Peter’s improvement strategy. 2024 was a year of buildup; now, we’ll see a full year of value creation from that deployment.

Dennis Fong, Analyst

I appreciate that color and context. My second question focuses on turnarounds. You have major planned turnarounds later this year, including the U1 coke drum replacement program. Can you discuss some steps or measures for cost controls as well as moderating downtime risk related to this significant project?

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

Certainly, Dennis. I’ll turn it over to Shelley here in a second. 2025 is a heavier planned maintenance year, both upstream and material turnarounds in Edmonton. We’ll have a better sense of how ‘25 shapes up as the year goes on and this work is completed. The coke drum replacements at the base plant are the biggest event of the year, as these last about 50 years. Shelley and her team are leading that work. Shelley, offer specific comments on that work?

Shelley Powell, Senior Vice President, Operational Improvement and Support Services

We’ve been working on the coke drum replacement project for quite a few years. In total, it’s about 2.8 million hours to complete the project. We have already completed 2.3 million of those hours. Coming into 2025, there’s only about 500,000 hours left, albeit it’s the critical scope of the actual drum replacement in the turnaround. We’ve had extensive reviews and project planning sessions. We brought in external experts with experience replacing coke drums in other plants globally. We’re bringing the best of what we have internally and externally to ensure we’re ready to go. In terms of project readiness, we’re in good shape. We exited last year slightly ahead of plan. All the coke drums are on-site. We’ve built practice mockup structures so our maintenance personnel can practice alongside operations personnel, so we feel prepared.

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

A year ago, this was a more than 100-day work scope in our estimation, but the turnaround improvements led by Shelley and Dave have optimized that to the current 91-day schedule. We’re focused on the critical work ahead of us.

Dennis Fong, Analyst

Great. Thank you for taking my questions. I will turn it back.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Manav Gupta with UBS. Please proceed.

Manav Gupta, Analyst

Good morning, congratulations on all the milestones. My question is about the reduction of your all-in breakeven by $10. In the first year, you were looking for $4 to $5 then for the remaining $2. You’re already at $7, which is commendable. Could this go more than $10? From your normalized free cash flow assumptions, they’re almost 70% at your target at the end of year 1. Could there be upside to these numbers you mentioned 9 or 10 months ago?

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

Manav, based on your question, you are qualified to be one of my bosses on our Board of Directors because they’re asking me the same thing. The 3-year plan had tangible activities that built up to the $4 in the first year, $2 in the second, and $4 in the third. Achieving the $7 in the first year combines several factors, including realizing benefits earlier than expected. We still have new ideas and opportunities to enhance our performance. Our ambition has been elevated because of the performance in 2024.

Manav Gupta, Analyst

Thank you so much.

Operator, Operator

It comes from the line of Menno Hulshof with TD Securities. Please proceed.

Menno Hulshof, Analyst

Hi, good morning everyone. I will start with a question on consolidation, as we have seen quite a bit of it in recent quarters, including your consolidation of Fort Hills and CNQ’s consolidation of EAOSP through two transactions. High level, that leaves Syncrude. I understand you can’t speak on behalf of your partners. But how much time do you spend thinking about Syncrude consolidation these days? Along the same line, how active is the Lease 29 discussion at the moment?

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

Menno, for the last couple of years, we have focused heavily on the 99% of our workforce that drive trucks, operate shovels, and run refineries to get things right. Achieving that allows us to consider how to add shareholder value long-term. We will continue to evaluate opportunities adding value that the current owner might not be capable of achieving. It always comes down to having a willing buyer and a willing seller. I can’t comment on any specific assets, but we focus on creating unique value.

Kris Smith, Chief Financial Officer

Just on your question about Lease 29, we have ample bitumen supply with our current assets and leases and development opportunities going forward. Lease 29 is not the focus, although it’s been talked about in the market.

Menno Hulshof, Analyst

Thanks for that. And just on egress, you often emphasize your marketing and sales capabilities as an advantage. In the context of tariffs risk, how much ability does Suncor have to shift cargoes away from U.S. and West Coast markets, especially with potential increases in throughput at Westridge Marine Terminal towards the middle of this year?

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

I won’t speculate on tariffs, but think about how Canadian companies will feel differing impacts. About 60%-65% of our barrels stay in Canada, either going to our refining network, customers, or off the coast. We have a large Canadian refining footprint, and we believe among our peers, we have greater capacity to get crude off either coast than our peers. Our integrated nature gives us more resiliency and a natural hedge in various environments.

Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President, Downstream

There are a few things happening at Westridge Dock. Firstly, they are working on lighting to allow ships to load at night. That’s on track to happen soon. Later, dredging capability under Narrows Bridge will allow larger cargoes. We are satisfied with logistics at Westridge as we knew it would be busy, and our team is working well with the TMX team.

Menno Hulshof, Analyst

Thank you.

Operator, Operator

One moment for our next question. That comes from the line of John Royall with JPMorgan. Please proceed.

John Royall, Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. My first question is on the production guidance for ‘25. It’s flat at the midpoint with ‘24 being terrific. Is it fair to think the midpoint assumes that operations and reliability aren’t quite as strong as in ‘24, and if operations meet 2024’s levels, should we think more toward the high end?

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

John, you called it right. The team performed exceptionally in December. We previously expected 2024 results to be a bit lower than they were. For 2025, it’s largely around the maintenance work that provides some uncertainty. We have not assumed that we will perform worse next year. We have the same assets, but maintenance impacts what we can accomplish. If everything goes as expected, we may see a high-end performance.

John Royall, Analyst

Thank you. My follow-up question is on Firebag. You’ve increased production significantly there. Can you share what you’ve done? Is there more low-hanging fruit, or has it reached its true potential?

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

The gentleman I’m turning this over to didn’t know he would be, as he’s now our Chief HR Officer, but for the last several years, he’s driven improvement at Firebag. Adam, what have you accomplished over the last couple of years at Firebag that added 35,000 barrels a day without growth investment?

Adam Husain Albeldawi, Chief Human Resources Officer

Thanks, Rich. The Firebag asset teams constantly look for constraints affecting production and what they can do short-term to safely increase production, consistent with the organization’s mindset. We removed a water constraint with a small piping arrangement and added a fifth PSV. The team has many opportunities to further unlock production. We reached a 250,000 barrel per day production rate at Firebag in December.

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

We must ensure we can manage capacity as we increment facility capacity. Shelley’s drilling team is looking into adding more well pads quickly due to capacity challenges. That is a great problem to have, and the resource at Firebag is long-life quality.

John Royall, Analyst

Thank you.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. It comes from the line of Adam Wijaya with Goldman Sachs.

Adam Wijaya, Analyst

Good morning, Rich and team, and thank you for taking my questions. I want to start on the retail side of the business. Where do we stand on the margin improvement targets for this part of the business? Can you also comment on what has surprised you, either positively or negatively?

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Adam. Dave, can you comment on our retail growth plan?

Dave Oldreive, Executive Vice President, Downstream

Sure. Our retail growth plan underpins our overall sales and marketing growth. We are growing our sales and marketing volumes with 600,000 barrels a day for the year. We shared plans to high-grade our Petro-Canada network, leveraging strategic partnerships to deliver $200 million by the end of ‘26. We are still on track, evolving plans to adapt to a competitive market. We enhance our quick-service restaurant offerings with new A&W sites and new express format concepts. Our retail pumping costs are down year-on-year, and our same-site store volumes are up year-on-year, such as rebuilding sites to provide better margins. We are also working on our Canadian Tire partnership to convert 200 sites and increase sales volume by about 1 billion liters a year.

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

It’s about both value and volume. We're getting volume while also achieving high-end value. The retail network is a source of competitive advantage, and we are back on the outlined plan post the cyber attack in mid-2023.

Adam Wijaya, Analyst

That’s super helpful. My follow-up question is on total operating, selling, and general expenses down by about $300 million. Can you comment on the moving pieces and expectations for 2025 on the rate of change from 2024?

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

Expense management comes down to attention to detail, rigor, and treating spending like it’s not your own. It reflects the culture of an organization. We’ve seen an evolving high-performance results-oriented culture at Suncor. While the $1 billion decrease year-on-year exceeded my expectations, achieving a similar rate of change in ‘25 is a challenging objective, but we are not done yet.

Adam Wijaya, Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Doug Leggate with Wolfe Research. Please proceed.

Doug Leggate, Analyst

Thank you, Rich. I don’t want to revisit earlier questions, but I want to ask about production volumes. You mentioned 100,000 barrels a day, which you seem to be there. What do you think the volume trajectory looks like from here?

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, Doug. We achieved 82,000 barrels a day toward the 108,000 goal in the first year. We’re looking at what we can do; there’s still growth at Firebag. We must manage export pipelines and ensure we get ore delivery to feed our facilities. There are opportunities to optimize our asset capacity that will help increase production.

Doug Leggate, Analyst

I appreciate it. The issue of baseline ARO liability long term has come up again. Can you frame that for us?

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

I’ll ask Kris to comment on the numbers involved. The long life of the Upgraders and the bitumen supply connect to abandonment and reclamation obligations. Kris, can you provide thoughts on the moderate spend involved?

Kris Smith, Chief Financial Officer

Absolutely, Doug. ARO is a long-term commitment, and we have a number showing that over time, reclamation activities are continually ongoing across our asset base. Averaging $400 million and $500 million a year, spend may vary. We’re optimizing our mine and reclamation closure plans to ensure we execute efficiently. This is ratable over time and not a balloon payment at the end of mine life.

Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President, Oil Sands

We’ve standardized engineering assumptions for ARO across our asset base to ensure correct and consistent calculations. Additionally, our mining efficiencies today improve our ARO assumptions over time.

Doug Leggate, Analyst

Thank you for the detailed answers. A quick follow-up on cash CapEx versus the funding. How does it flow through the cash flow statement?

Kris Smith, Chief Financial Officer

Yes, you’ll see it as an expense on the cash flow statement.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. We have a question from the line of Patrick O’Rourke with ATB Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Patrick O’Rourke, Analyst

Good morning. Thanks for the comprehensive rundown thus far. Just a few quick questions. First, regarding the balance sheet and working capital changes, I know you talked about this. Can you walk through the potential cadence of that? How do you determine what’s structural versus cyclical when returning capital?

Kris Smith, Chief Financial Officer

The working capital story has been great this year. We see variability quarter-to-quarter. We saw a release in Q4 driven by AR changes, timing of cargo settlements, and tax drawdowns. I expect working capital to increase in Q1. Our focus is on managing working capital while maintaining our net debt target. As we release capital structurally, we’ll return that to shareholders.

Patrick O’Rourke, Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

As I see no further questions at this time, I would like to turn the conference back to Mr. Troy Little for closing remarks.

Troy Little, Senior Vice President of External Affairs

Thank you, operator. I’ll turn it back over to Rich for some closing comments.

Rich Kruger, President and Chief Executive Officer

I’ll be brief here. Everyone knows I’m a big sports fan. I love competition, excellence, and dedication to winning—Gretzky, Brady, Jordan—the best of the best did not arrive with one good season. It takes sustained excellence year after year, which is the objective of today’s Suncor. 2024 was a great year, and don’t worry about this company getting complacent; we are still hungry for more. As of January 1st, we aim to deliver even more. That’s all I have. Troy, I’ll turn it back to you.

Troy Little, Senior Vice President of External Affairs

Thank you, everyone, for joining our call this morning. If you have any follow-up questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to our team. Operator, you can end the call.

Operator, Operator

Thank you all for participating, and you may now disconnect.