Earnings Call Transcript - SUZ Q1 2025

Operator, Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for holding, and welcome to Suzano’s Conference Call to Discuss the Results for the First Quarter of 2025. We would like to inform that our participants will be in a listen-only mode during the presentation that will be addressed by the CEO, Mr. Beto Abreu, and other executive officers. This call will be presented in English with simultaneous translation to Portuguese. Please be aware that any forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Suzano's management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions because they relate to future events and, therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. You should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions, and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Suzano and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Beto Abreu. Please, you may begin your presentation.

Beto Abreu, CEO

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for attending the 2025 first quarter conference call. Suzano has presented a set of results for the pulp and paper business, which are fully in line with our plan for the period. Inventory was rebuilt to normalized levels despite the concentration of maintenance downtimes in the first quarter. Pulp and paper invoicing prices, cash cost performance, CapEx, disbursement and the main metrics of our balance sheets came as expected by the management. The team will cover all the details regarding those points during the call. Looking now at the current environment, where the level of uncertainty escalated since April 2, the focus on strengthening our competitive position became even more critical in an increasingly unpredictable global landscape. Although Suzano already has the ability to generate free cash flow in any pulp price scenario, due to its resilient business model, going forward, we see room to become even more competitive - further reducing our cash costs, further reducing our SG&A cost, and also caps per ton as we move ahead in 2025. This is fully in line with our total operational disbursement guidance for 2027. Our conservative approach is also valid for our financial strength, so deleveraging continues to be our priority. Before handing over to Fabio, I would like to reinforce that Suzano will keep its focus to well serve our customers globally, especially in a challenging trade environment.

Fabio Oliveira, Executive Officer

Thanks, Beto, and good morning, everyone. Our first quarter results were marked by price evolutions in our Brazilian and American operations. Sales volume growth on a year-over-year basis, improvements in our Suzano packaging operations, and higher costs in Brazilian operations due to the annual maintenance downtime on Line 1. As you can see in this slide, we have segregated Suzano's packaging performance to provide you a detailed and transparent view of its progress and to enable you to compare it against our mainstream business from Brazilian operations. Looking to the Brazilian market, according to Ibar, print and write demand, including imports, increased by 21% in the first two months of the first quarter compared to the same period last year. Sales from domestic producers grew by 23%, while imports grew by 19% on the same basis. 2025 is expected to be a record year in terms of paper demand for the Brazilian government textbook program, and therefore, domestic demand growth in Q1 reflected a higher-than-expected demand for uncoated wood-free paper. Demand for cut size in coated paper remained stable year over year. Looking to other regions, according to PPPC, demand for uncoated wood-free papers, our main exported products, has kept stable in North America, decreased by 7% in Europe, and grown by 4.4% in Latin America. International markets continue to be oversupplied in Q1, and market dynamics could change going forward depending on the outcome of ongoing trade discussions. Regarding U.S. Paperboard demand, in Brazil, we saw an 8% decline in the first two months of the quarter compared to the same period last year. This reduction reflected a cooling of the Brazilian economy and adjustments in the supply chain after a strong second semester in 2024. In the U.S. market, a key region for our Suzano packaging operations, boxboard demand has shrunk by 1% year over year. However, demand for SBS boards, which Suzano packaging produces, has increased by 1% over the same period. Looking at Suzano figures, our sales volume performance in the quarter shows that the Brazilian domestic market grew year over year with solid demand for our products. Oil exports from Brazil have declined due to our strategy to rebuild our inventories in Brazil and at our international warehouses. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the decline in sales from our operations in Brazil is attributed to market seasonality. I would like to highlight the sales volumes in Suzano packaging, which increased by 62% on a quarter-over-quarter basis, driven by improved operational performance across the business. In terms of pricing, year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter increases in our Brazilian operations reflect the successful implementation of pricing strategies in our main product lines. Additionally, a more favorable foreign exchange contributed to higher net prices for our exports compared to Q1 ‘24. Turning to Suzano packaging, net prices rose by 15% from Q4 2024 due to new commercial conditions on main contracts that took effect in January 2025. The EBITDA performance from our Brazilian operations was affected by seasonality when compared to Q4 ’24 and by significant annual maintenance downtime, which we experienced in Line 1, but we expect improved efficiency moving forward. I am pleased to share further updates on Suzano packaging, as EBITDA improved by 67% on a quarter-over-quarter basis, underscoring the progress of our turnaround strategy.

Leo Grimaldi, Executive Officer

Thank you, Fabio, and good morning, everyone. Moving to the next slide of our presentation, I would like to begin by sharing some facts related to our pulp business unit during this past quarter. As I mentioned during our Q4 presentation, a higher-than-expected demand during the last months of 2024, mainly due to two unplanned events: the conversion of paper-grade pulp to dissolving pulp by a Brazilian pulp player and the halting of operations in China, allowed us to reach all-time high sales volume in Q4 '24, but this also put significant pressure on our global logistics operations as our pulp inventories became unsustainably low. As we entered Q1 2025, even with production volumes impacted by maintenance downtimes, restoring inventories to optimal operational levels was necessary across all our systems to improve service levels to our contractual customers. I would highlight that our inventories are now normalized, and we do not foresee any need for further inventory buildups moving ahead. From a market perspective, Q1 ’25 presented positive short-term supply and demand fundamentals, mainly due to unexpected events. Price increases were implemented throughout Q1. Despite this positive trend, invoicing from our order backlogs caused by Q4 affected our average prices in the quarter. Order intake in Asia declined in March due to negotiations during Shanghai Pulp week and ongoing uncertainties related to global trade. Moving forward, the uncertainty generated by tariff announcements has paused negotiations in China. As customers struggle to forecast tariff impacts on production, both pulp buyers and sellers are currently in a price discovery mode. The tariff war affected the Chinese local market, leading to lower paper production compared to March. As the month progressed and pulp prices softened across several grades in Asia, paper producers returned to negotiations, although pricing remains uncertain. Overall, I believe current prices are at unsustainable levels as spot prices are already below the marginal cost of producers. We are committed to our valued customer base as we navigate these challenges in the current macroeconomic environment.

Aires Galhardo, Executive Officer

Moving to cash cost slides. We can see that cash production cost performance, excluding the impact of scheduled downtimes, showed a temporary increase of 6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. This result was in line with the company's expectations. The increase was mainly driven by a lower contribution from our more competitive energy provider mills, which underwent scale maintenance during the period. The negative impact of lower contributions from these mills can be seen across several components of cash costs. The cost increase this quarter was primarily due to our usual decision to temporarily expand the average harvesting ratios at mills with scheduled maintenance. We took advantage of this downtime to perform additional maintenance activities, which is a key factor in the increase in fixed costs this quarter. Additionally, the lower volume of energy exports due to the maintenance schedule also impacted cash costs. Looking ahead, we expect a reduction in cash production costs over the coming quarters.

Marcos Assumpcao, Executive Officer

Now on Slide 7, I'll talk about the leverage and the balance sheet of Suzano in the first quarter of 2025. Starting with the net debt, we began the quarter with a net debt of BRL 12.8 billion. We generated close to BRL 500 million in free cash flow and spent close to $200 million in growth CapEx, mainly for projects to increase fluff capacity and tissue capacity. We made a significant payment of nearly $400 million in interest on equity, which caused our net debt to rise to BRL 12.9 billion at the end of the quarter. Our leverage also saw a slight uptick from 2.9 times at the end of last year to 3 times net debt to EBITDA by the end of the first quarter. As we remain close to our leverage policy limit, we took a more cautious approach toward share buybacks and reinforced our commitment to deleveraging Suzano's balance sheet. Regarding our amortization schedule, we maintained a very attractive cost of capital of 5%, increasing our average maturity from 73 months to 76 months during the quarter through a liability management operation that raised $1.2 billion at a favorable rate.

Beto Abreu, CEO

Looking ahead, I would like to summarize what we expect for 2025. Firstly, our strategic focus on deleveraging and strengthening competitiveness remains. As part of Aires' comments, cash production costs will decline in coming quarters. Free cash flow generation is expected to be sustainable at any pulp price scenario, and our packaging operations are on track to breakeven. Given the current global macroeconomic turmoil, any investment will require higher returns. That is our outlook for 2025. Thank you very much.

Operator, Operator

We will now start the Q&A section for investors and analysts. If you wish to ask a question, please click on raise hand. If your question has already been answered, you can leave the queue by clicking on both hand down.

Rodolfo De Angele, Analyst

Good morning, everyone. I have two questions. My first one is on pulp prices. We are in a period of high uncertainties. We are seeing resale prices coming down. Can Leo comment on how talks with clients are going? I know you mentioned the marginal cost already breached when compared to prices, but I wanted more context. And my second question is for Beto. Beto, you added a bullet about capital discipline, and I want to explore it further. What does that look like considering higher discount rates and compared to other opportunities like managing your balance sheet and dividends?

Leo Grimaldi, Executive Officer

Hi, Rodolfo. This is Leo here. To address your first question on pulp prices, despite our efforts to implement a price increase for April after the tariff war announcement, customers showed significant uncertainty regarding what they would produce, leading them to leave the negotiation table at the beginning of the month. This scenario in China lasted until the very end of April. After gaining a bit more clarity, customers returned to the negotiating table, although we did not manage to execute our intended price increases. Current resale prices in China are around the $500 range, while marginal costs for producers are reported at around $625 per ton. This disparity highlights an unsustainable situation for many producers.

Beto Abreu, CEO

Thank you, Leo. Thank you, Rodolfo, for your questions. To address your first question, our strategy for capital allocation remains unchanged, aiming for opportunities that provide higher returns, given the higher risk level in today's environment. We're assessing various options totaling approximately $3 billion, but the requirement for returns has certainly increased. I hope this clarifies your questions.

Aires Galhardo, Executive Officer

Buybacks and dividends are always alternatives in our capital allocation strategy. If we do not find investment alternatives that generate shareholder value, buybacks with higher returns remain a viable option.

Rafael Barcellos, Analyst

Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. Regarding pulp sales volume, could you provide an overview of the inventory buildup during the first quarter? Additionally, could you discuss your sales volumes for April and May, and what to expect for 2025?

Leo Grimaldi, Executive Officer

Hi, Rafael, good morning. This is Leo here. We rebuilt our inventory by approximately 200,000 tons during the first quarter, bringing our levels back to normal. We expect to maintain increased sales volumes in April and May, compared to the same periods last year.

Beto Abreu, CEO

Regarding the Hibas mill, I’m pleased to report it is performing well in terms of cost and stability. We successfully completed the first maintenance downtime as planned. Currently, we are not considering short-term investments for pulp production expansion.

Daniel Sasson, Analyst

Hi guys, thank you for taking my questions. Beto, based on your comments on capital allocation alternatives, do you see the $3 billion from M&A transactions as adequate for diversification, or is it just a sum of all opportunities?

Beto Abreu, CEO

Daniel, our goal is value creation rather than setting diversification targets. We want to pursue opportunities that will yield higher returns for our shareholders. This remains our primary focus.

Caio Greiner, Analyst

Hello, good morning. I have questions about internationalization and capital allocation in the U.S. What impact do recent U.S. trade policy developments have on Suzano's plans to acquire assets in the U.S. market?

Aires Galhardo, Executive Officer

The strategy for capital allocation in the U.S. remains unchanged. We are closely analyzing local market conditions and their potential impacts on demand.

Caio Ribeiro, Analyst

Good morning. I wanted to ask if production cuts might be a viable decision under the current market conditions. What factors are you closely monitoring?

Marcos Assumpcao, Executive Officer

We are always analyzing cash costs on an event-driven basis, especially in periods of lower prices. We closely observe marginal costs, including those of wood and logistics. Our production cut decision will depend on these assessments.

Leo Grimaldi, Executive Officer

The current cash cost structure for pulp producers indicates a challenging environment, particularly for softwood producers. We expect significant commercial adjustments from them as they react to price pressures.

Eugenia Cavalheiro, Analyst

I’d like to inquire about the expected returns required for investments, following Beto's comments on capital discipline. Can you provide clarity on return expectations?

Beto Abreu, CEO

Regarding our expectations for returns, it’s challenging to specify exact numbers. The requirement for returns must be adjusted according to the current risk environment. However, we will not alter our dividend policy in light of deleveraging.

Operator, Operator

The Q&A section is concluded. We would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Beto Abreu for his final remarks.

Beto Abreu, CEO

Thank you all for attending our 2025 first-quarter call. I appreciate your questions and encourage you to reach out to our Investor Relations team for further clarifications or inquiries. Thank you very much.

Operator, Operator

The Suzano SA first quarter of 2025 conference call is concluded. The Investor Relations department is available to answer any further questions you may have. Thank you and have a good day.