Conference Transcript - TEVA 2026-03-10

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

All right, good morning, everybody. Why don't we get started for our first presentation. We're very excited to host Richard Francis. He's the president and CEO of Teva Pharmaceuticals. And we do have Eli Khalif there in the front row. If you just want to raise your hand and show everybody. And we got Chris Stevo and Sanjeev Sharma representing the IR team. So we're happy that everyone could sort of join us. Well, 2025 was a gigantic year for Teva, not only financially. I mean, a lot of accomplishments in the pipeline. So maybe as a good place to start, Richard, and I'm sorry, before we do that, I probably should introduce myself. Sorry, this is the first presentation of the conference, so I'm just warming up. I'm Glenn Santangelo. I'm the analyst at Barclays that covers the stock. So please feel free to follow up. If anyone has any interest in the name afterwards, we'd be happy to spend some time with you. So Richard, thank you for joining us. We're excited that you guys could kick it off. So maybe as a good place to sort of level set the conversation, maybe you can sort of walk through some of those 2025 highlights, not only financially, but you had a lot of key pipeline updates. So maybe that's a good place to start, talking about some of the accomplishments of last year, and then we can sort of dive right in.

Richard Francis, CEO

So thank you for hosting us. I always appreciate it. Good to talk to you. So 2025 was a very important year. We've started the transition of Teva from a pure play generics company to a biopharma company. We started that in 2023, the Pivot to Growth Strategy. And I think, you know, we really gained momentum. And I think the way that's best exemplified is probably in this idea that transitioning to an innovative company sounds great on paper and it sounds a great way to drive long-term value creation, but it's about the math. Does it play out that way? And last year, you know, our innovative portfolio was over $3 billion and it grew at 35%. So real momentum across all our leading brands, Estedo, Ussedi, and Ajovi. And so I think fundamentally you've seen that drive down through the P&L. Our gross margin has changed, ability to drive EBITDA, and ability to drive APS and create real shareholder value. So I think the skepticism, could it be done, has passed now. And I think now the questions always are, how quickly can you move this? How quickly can the transition of the portfolio continue? And what does the end game look like? And that's starting to now come to fruition with the pipeline. And so, although we've made great progress on the pipeline, it's really 26, it becomes sort of the breakout year. We have seven milestones for 26. We started the year with the duvacuitic maintenance data, which, once again, I think positioned it as the best TO1A out there. In Q2, we're going to have the first data in anti-R15 in vitiligo. In Q3, we're going to have the anti-IL-15 data in C-Ect disease. In Q3, we're also going to have the futility analysis of every Solomon in MSA, so a go, no go. And then in Q3, we'll also have the readout of our dual-action rescue inhaler in asthma. And also in Q3, we'll launch a Lanzaprene, our long-acting treatment for schizophrenia, that joins its sibling, Yostedi. It's doing really well on the market. And then in Q4, we have the first in human data on our PD-1 IL-2. So that doesn't sound much like a pure play generics company. But that's sort of so 2025 now was a really good year. But as in Teva, it's all about the next year, and it's all about making sure we nail it in 26.

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

Well, I mean, so many good things to talk about in 25. And before we start diving into some of your branded drugs, I mean, is there anything that disappointed you last year? Anything that maybe was a little bit less than what you thought? I don't know if there was any sort of negative surprises.

Richard Francis, CEO

No, I mean, I'm generally quite a glass half full, half empty type of guy. As people who work with me, it's probably quite depressing sometimes. So I'm always looking for what is more. So I think there's things we could have done better across our business. But if I really step back and look at it objectively, we've moved the company on many parallels, whether it's our generics business, whether it's our biosimilar business, whether it's our manufacturing cost-based, whether it's our innovative. So I think we've moved things in parallel at speed across quite a large company. So I think I'm very pleased with that. So I think for once, not saying we couldn't do things better, I think they're more in the margins. And I think one of the things I was particularly proud of is we started this organizational effectiveness, this cost efficiency program, and we achieved our goal in 25 when we started it and that set us up well for 26 to achieve two-thirds of the 700 million. So, you know, when I reel off the things we've done, probably the one thing, actually, now I think about it, I would have liked to have done some BD. I would have liked to enlicense something. But, you know, we have a real focus on capital and the return on capital deploy. We have a good organic growth engine. We can do a lot organically. We would like to add something to it. but it's got to be the right price, and it's got to fit in, and if ultimately it isn't, you know, we're good at holding the line and staying disciplined.

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

All right, so why don't we dive into your branded portfolio now. Why don't we start with Osteto, 30% growth three years in a row. I mean, that's probably surprising to you, right? I mean, essentially, you crossed $3 billion right now in your three branded products, but with Osteto, obviously, is the majority of that, so maybe that's a good place to start. and what's sort of giving you the ability to grow maybe much faster than you would have expected, right? I mean, I seem to remember you guys put out that $2.5 billion goal in 2027, and we seem to be getting there faster than expected. So maybe could you talk a little bit about some of that brand strength and maybe what's driving that to help us kind of assess the durability of that recent trend?

Richard Francis, CEO

Yeah, no, look, I think it comes down to two particular areas. One would be what is the market opportunity? So I think that plays an important part. And then what is our focus and our capabilities? So the market opportunity, as much as this is still surprising, 85% of patients who are diagnosed with tardive dyskinesia are still not on therapy. It's a very dynamic market where people come on and they come off. And so the opportunity to drive real growth and change people's lives is huge still. So that's the sort of market dynamic. And I think what we've done, and a lot of what we do at Teva, it is about applying real prioritization, real focus, setting clear expectations, applying the right level of resource, having a great team with great capability, but clear expectation setting. So when we set the $2.5 billion in 27, for me, that was one where the organization then had to step up and say, okay, let's work back. What do we need to achieve in 23, 24, and 25 to get that? And so a really talented team, super focused, and that team keeps getting better. It's very impressive. And so, great market, excellent execution. And as you say, we may get to the $2.5 billion a year ahead, which sort of is quite surprising to many who obviously, as you said, didn't believe it was ever going to happen. But I think that's a testament to understanding the opportunity, applying the right resources, and executing flawlessly.

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

Could we talk about the XR transition in there as well? Because we see it having a pretty big impact on the pricing, right, which I'm sure there's a margin that's associated with that. If you could just sort of talk about maybe where we are in that transition process.

Richard Francis, CEO

Yeah, that's a good point, Glenn. Thanks for bringing it up. So obviously we have this patient dynamic, lots of new patients coming in, but also we launched the XR formulation once a day. What that has allowed patients to do is to titrate to a more efficacious dose easier. Because they do that easier, they end up on a higher sort of average dose. Still, by the way, less than the phase three clinical trials. There's still some way to go, but we have seen that. And if you look in all our quarterly results, we do emphasize the growth in milligrams per patient. And it's been in the 20% for quite some time. So the opportunity to bring more patients in is the opportunity to get those patients on XR, which helps them get onto a more optimal dose, which helps them be more compliant and adherent. If you think about that, there's so many opportunities that we have to keep growing the brand. But as you've highlighted, the milligrams does correlate to value, so that is a value driver. And we still have a long way to go to get the majority of patients on XR and the majority of patients on the optimal dose. So I see that's why when we talk about greater than $3 billion for the asset, we have a high degree of confidence in that. And I think people are starting to also get confident in achieving that number.

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

When I think about the guidance for this year, 2.4 to 2.55 from memory, right, that kind of implies only 6% to 13%. I say only after three years of compounded 30% growth, so I get that. It feels like it continues to be an under-penetrated opportunity. It feels like we got the ongoing XR tailwind. It feels like maybe there's some competitive share gains, and I don't know if you want to talk about the competitive dynamics of that market, but it still feels like there's a lot of those tailwinds that are kind of still in your favor, and maybe we're seeing the deceleration of growth from the low large numbers, some pricing in there, but I don't know if you want to just sort of touch on that.

Richard Francis, CEO

So a couple of things to focus on there is, as you saw, we had a really big Q4, and Q4 we highlighted that we had about a $100 million benefit from the channel stocking in and a bit of growth, mostly the channel stocking in. So that sort of sucks it out of Q1. And so if you take that out, reverse that out, we're growing it between 11% to 18% this year, 18% in the high end. And I think 18% off a 30% compound growth, as you said, it should come down because we're growing off a bigger base. So I still think it's really healthy. You know, the one thing I take the opportunity to highlight this year, and people ask about the range, you know, part of that's because we had the stock in Q4, but also part of it is we're not quite sure how it's going to play out in Q4 this year with the IRA price being initiated in Q1 of 27. So are people going to have different inventory levels in Q4? So, you know, we'll see how that plays out. We're watching what the first wave of IRA drugs have done. We've got a good idea. But that's just to help people understand that range. It's less about new patients coming in, less about our ability to execute. It's more about those dynamics, which are hard to predict.

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

I think just sort of moving on, it feels like to me a little bit of Jovi and Yuzeti, they sort of get lost in the shadow of Osteto. I don't know if there's any high-level commentary you want to make on those two drugs because they continue to be great growth drivers for the company, and now I think that your branded revenues are up to almost 20% of the total revenues, and they're meaningful contributors as well. I don't know if there's anything you wanted to add on that front.

Richard Francis, CEO

Yeah, no, I think it's really important, actually. I'm glad you brought it up. So firstly, let's take Yuceti. Yuceti is our long-acting risperidone schizophrenia product. Now, when that was launched, expectations, I think, generally were really low, And that's probably fair enough. Big incumbent brand in that sector. Other brands, genericized. So really, really difficult competitive environment. We've come in, you know, I think the high end of the guidance this year is 280. So really showing a great product, great product profile, and well-executed what a brand can do. So I think actually this shows, this really shows the capability that we have in our team to take a difficult market, to understand the dynamics of it, to have the strategic thinking to understand the price and the access is a really important sort of ratio. And so I think you said, people need to look at it and go, wow, what they've done, because we're going to talk about a land supreme probably shortly. And then that's the franchise of one and a half to two billion. And then Ajovi, I think it just shows, what commercial products can do in Teva's hands. So Ajovi was sort of given up on, the injectable CGRPs, the oils have come in, the market's gone, it's very competitive, big players. Across all of our regions, we continue to grow a double-digging, over 20%, and we're taking market share. How do we do that? Same thing. Great focus, great planning, great execution. Those fundamentals are good. So I'd say Estedo, Yuseti, and Ajobi have a lot in common. It's about excellence in planning, understanding the market execution, which is worth talking about because when we talk about Alanzapine, Dari, Dubikitu, all the products that are coming to the market, we will launch them really well.

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

Okay. Okay. We're going to talk about Alonzo Payne, Duvikitu, and the rescue inhaler in one second, but I just have one last question before we move to the pipeline. You have a world-class generics business. We talk about it a lot less. I don't know if there's sort of any high-level commentary you want to make with respect to pricing trends. We have biosimilars now sort of flowing through there. Maybe the cadence of those biosimilar launches is a little slower than maybe you would have thought. I don't know where we stand, but it's such an important component because of the cash flow of your business that it generates that enables you to do all this other sort of R&D and business development activity? Any high-level generic commentary, and then we'll...

Richard Francis, CEO

Yeah, absolutely. Once again, I think sometimes if you look at generics on its own, there's some really impressive results to talk about, but we've talked about some other exciting areas, but let me talk about generics. This was quite a volatile business, but in the three years, we've generated a CAGR in the mid-single digits across the whole business and it's one of the largest in the world so it's a big business to do that over i think some of the exciting things we've done that are ahead of us now to come is we have a biosimilar portfolio of 28 we've launched 10 now we have 10 on the market we're going to launch another 6 by 27 we're going to launch the rest starting 28 going forward we're going to keep adding to that so now we have the second largest biosimilar portfolio so if you think about all that growth and performance we've driven our generics business it's been without biosimilars yeah so i think you think about this is like taking a car that we're getting even more efficient you know a really really good engine and we're applying biosimilars to it you know that's the turbo so i think we're setting ourselves up for i think a very positive future for our generics because we've changed the portfolio and we've changed the manufacturing network so we're going to start to see our cogs coming down which allows us to protect our gross margin so a lot of good things and that does allow us to keep fueling the pipeline which we'll talk about because we have a really big, broad pipeline now, and it's late stage, so we need to fund that.

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

Okay, let's move on. On the TL1A, you obviously just published the 44-week data. That looked probably stronger than I think most people were expecting, and so what was your sort of interpretation of that data readout? Does that make you incrementally more bullish, and any high-level thoughts as you're embarking

Richard Francis, CEO

on these phase three trials? Yeah, look, we were always bullish because we know we've made the one, the best TL1A, and we made it by design, so you know, we didn't fall into having the best, we designed it to be the best and it is the best, induction and maintenance, and so I think the frame is, and I'll ask people to think about, we don't think we have the best TL1A to compete with TL1As in UC and CD, we think we now have an asset that will compete across MOAs, so we think because it's efficacy, efficacy it's safety and it's tolerability No monitoring, we believe. There'll be no black box. So we think this could be really a big player in UCNCD. So for us now, I think Sanofi posted 2 to 5 billion of peak sales in UCNCD, and we sort of took that. I challenge whether that's ambitious enough, but we'll wait. And I always remind people, if it's the 2 billion, which I struggle to understand why, it's a game-changer for Teva, but it won't be based on the efficacy of the data we're seeing.

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

So, I mean, I think when you announced that Sanofi partnership, some people were surprised, right? And now we've had the Blackstone sort of partnership announced more recently. Could you just touch on that quickly on why you did that?

Richard Francis, CEO

Yeah, no, and then there was a multi-farmer partnership. So look, I think the key principle for people that understand is, and it's a key belief we have at Teva, is we have a great pipeline, but pipelines, in my view, is all about bringing it to the market as fast as possible. That is the sole aim. Bringing it to the market as fast as possible, you create significant value. That's our job. Now, we happen to have a really, really exciting big pipeline with many indications. Diva Kito could end up in five to ten indications, right? So we have big ambitions. NTR 15 is going to be in three, possibly four and five. And so for us, it was all about let's not get stuck in the rounding error of what this financing can do long term for multi-billion dollar assets. Let's just get it to the market as fast as possible. And that's our key principle. And I think what you've probably seen in three years, the company that seems to have no pipeline innovative, to have now one of their busiest late-stage pipelines. And so that's our approach. move fast, get it to market, create value, create show-out of value, and maximize that patent life.

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

Okay. Alanzapine, I think in your opening remarks, you talked about commercialization in 3Q this year?

Richard Francis, CEO

Depending on the FCA, it should arrive in either September or October. So let's say Q4, October.

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

Okay. I mean, maybe could you give us a history lesson of sort of the timeline here? I mean, I know there were some historical issues with some of the long-acting injectables and maybe talk about why Alanzapine may be different.

Richard Francis, CEO

Yeah, so first let's talk about the olanzapine molecule. The olanzapine molecule is considered the most efficacious molecule, so it's used to treat severe schizophrenia. It's the most used molecule in the U.S. and in Europe. 20% of schizophrenia patients are on olanzapine in the U.S. and 30% in Europe. So no one will debate it's the most efficacious. Now, it hasn't had a long actin. There's one on long actin that was launched on the market that isn't being used because you have to monitor the patient after you inject because of a side effect called PDSS. So there is no long-acting. Now, if you look at what happened with the non-olanzapine molecules, 13% of those transferred to long-acting when they became available. So one could use that as an analog and say, well, the oral olanzapine market, one could expect 13% to transfer to long-acting olanzapine. You could also say it could be a lot larger because a patient who has severe schizophrenia, they have to be compliant. So they really need to be on a long-acting, which is why we see a lot of excitement. So the potential here, we've said 1.5 to 2 billion for our portfolio, you said, and Alanzapine. I'm very comfortable with that. I think there's now growing excitement. Could it be more? We said we're going to do 1.5, 2 billion. Let's get those numbers on the scoreboard and then we'll see what we can do. But we've got to launch it first. We're launching in Q4. And I would take the opportunity to tell people what does a good launch look like? It's not revenue, but it's about sample, physician use, breadth and depth of physician use, formally on D&T committees at hospitals where it can be used. So just broad usage, generated excitement and experience. And then we'll start to make sure we get good access on Medicaid. On Medicare, it'll probably be a bit slower. What we learned with Yoseti is what we're not prepared to do is give away value based on the product profile. so we'll hold for the right access at the right value. That could take time, but we've planned for it to take time. And what we saw with Yoseti is physicians value the product profile we're bringing to the market with Yoseti. They will value it even greater with Alantapine. So I just watched that revenue maybe towards more of the second half of 27 because it's about access, usage, and sampling because we're trying to create a franchise that's going to be a big one and live for a long time. So we need to be thoughtful about how we introduce it from a pricing point of view.

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

Can we switch over to the ASMA program?

Richard Francis, CEO

Absolutely, yeah.

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

Okay, could you remind people of the current competitive landscape there? You currently have a Phase III trial sort of going on. Could you sort of reiterate your confidence in that trial and sort of what you're seeing thus far?

Richard Francis, CEO

So the data readout is going to be in the second half of this year, around about Q3, where we're going to have the readout of the Phase III study. It's a dual-action rescue inhaler. In the U.S., guidelines have been issued that 10 million American asthma patients should be on a dual-actrian rescue inhaler. One has been launched by AstraZeneca a couple of years ago. So they're shaping the market. It's the first time there's been one here, so they're educating physicians on using this. And by the way, there are over 5,000 fatalities every year because of the lack of a dual-actrian rescue inhaler being used. So there's a real need here. Now, so we come to the market late, which is generally, you know, you don't want to come to the market late. This is the one you do because, you know, a very good respiratory company like AstraZeneca is forming the market. We come in, what's our differentiation? We will have a better device, but the key differentiation is we'll have a pediatric indication. So 25% of this market is pediatric. So we can come in and follow them, so to speak, and say, okay, use our dual-action rash inhaler because that's a pediatric indication.

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

We only have a few more minutes left. I'm amazed at how fast the clock has gone. There's so much to talk about here, but outside of Duvikitu, Alonza, Peen, and Dari, there's more, and you addressed some of those in your opening prepared remarks. Let me just give you a minute just to talk about anything else in the pipeline that you want to share with the audience and that you think everybody should be focused on.

Richard Francis, CEO

Well, obviously, the anti-R15, the vitiligo data, obviously, Royalty Pharma came in as the earliest ever partnership they've done on financing in an asset, and so I think obviously what they've seen excites them and so I think the vitiligo data will come out in Q2. I think it's interesting because that means we can get to market in 31 which is because there's a regulatory path that's been already shown by Insight and other companies as a topical out there and so if you think about it and then we have the celiac disease but the way to think about Riteva, we're going to launch elazamine this year in 28 we'll launch Daria Dual Action Rescue Inhaler, maybe we'll launch Emry Solomon for MSH, a rare disease, and then in 29 we'll do diva keto, that will take a year sabbatical, and then we'll have in 31 an IL-15 for vitiligo, and then we're going to announce two more indications for diva keto this year, so if you think about it, our challenge is how do we keep launching these products while maintaining good growth on our innovative portfolio?

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

It's just crazy, I mean you think about your $3 billion in branded revenues today and you wind the clock forward five years from now and think about where this company could be, right? I mean, you talk about the innovation transition, right? It's happening right in front of our eyes, right?

Richard Francis, CEO

Yeah, I mean, look, I think just on that point, our pipeline has over $13 billion of peak sales in it. And it's not a pipeline based on phase one. It's a pipeline that's a late-stage pipeline. You can risk adjust that, but you put that into our P&L with where our gross margin is right now, It's a game change for value creation.

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

Yep, yep. All right, we got a couple of minutes left and I got two questions left. Let's talk about guidance. You know, could you talk about some of the key drivers in the revenue and EBITDA guidance? And I think one of the things that we wanted to talk specifically about was the cadence of that throughout 2026 because you got Revlimet in 2025 that maybe is messing with some of the quarters. So anything with respect to the 26 guidance that you think is worth calling?

Richard Francis, CEO

Yeah, I really appreciate you calling that, actually, because as we're doing this transition, from a pure-play genetics to a biopharma company, there's lots going on in our P&L. There's lots going on in our portfolio. And so when you think about guidance, so firstly, what's important, our EBITDA is going to hit $5 billion. It's going to have a five in front of it, okay? I won't say anything more. That, after losing Revlimid, is, I think, a massive achievement, and it's reflective of the portfolio transition as well as the cost. Now, on how that progresses, H1 and H2 are always, H1's always lighter than H2 at Teva, from a gross margin and from a revenue point of view. But particularly in Q1, what I'd highlight is our gross margin will probably be more reflective of Q1 in 25 minus Revlimid, which is, you know, I think that was around 51% gross margin, because obviously we don't have Revlimid this year. So I think it's worth thinking about that, and then you'll see our gross margin continue to improve throughout the year, and then they're probably the 55%. So if anybody's modeling, please model that in there. that's just about the portfolio transition and the fact that we've lost over a billion of generic Revlimid, which from a modern point of view I think is important but just remember, you lose 1.1 billion of Revlimid you lose a lot of profit, yet we grow EBITDA, how do you grow EBITDA? You only do that with a transition of a portfolio that we've spoken about, 3 billion innovative at 35% and also very, very, very rigorous cost programs to put in place which we're executing, so Tev is going to come out at 26, fitter leaner, more set up for continued

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

shower to value creation. You say leaner, and this is going to be my last question. I want to give you the last word here. I mean, obviously, so much positive stuff has happened in 25. We've talked about the strength of the brands. We've talked about sort of the development and the pipeline. We didn't really talk about sort of your cost-saving initiatives and the 30% margin target you have for 2027. So there's a lot to sort of unpack there. And, you know, it looked like, to me, the stock was getting a fair amount of the credit up at $36, $37, and now it's sort of pulled back here to the 31 level, and we can maybe talk about macroeconomic, we can talk about the Middle East conflict, whatever it is, but I want to give you the last word here to tell the investors what you think is important, where they should be focused on. I know we have obviously touched, but I want to give you the last word, if there's anything else that you want to emphasize to the investors.

Richard Francis, CEO

Yeah, look, I mean, when people, I think if you look in your rearview mirror, then you think, oh, wow, the stock's doing really well. It's in a great place. I never look in the rearview mirror. I look about what's in front, what's the value creation that's in front of us. And there's two things I think is really worth thinking about, and if you don't let the maths play out. One is, EBITDA is just going to keep growing, and so we're at $5 billion this year. We're going to keep growing. Our cash flow is going to grow, not exponentially, it's going to go really significantly. By 2030, we're going to have over $3.5 billion, maybe even more, close to $4 billion of free cash flow. How does that happen? It happens because our portfolio is transitioning so fast with this project we talked about, but our cost-saving programs, we are maniacal about cost savings, capital allocation. Our capital goes to sales and marketing, our pipeline, and making sure our factories have the right equipment in them. Everything else doesn't get capital because it doesn't drive shareholder value. It's a service part. And so, the shareholder value to come, I always say we're a third of the way through the story, right? So, don't sit on the sidelines too long because then I think, you'll be disappointed.

Glen Santangelo, Analyst — Barclays

All right, Richard Francis, thank you very much. Appreciate it. Thank you very much.