Earnings Call Transcript - TEX Q1 2022

Operator, Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Terex First Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the call to your host, Randy Wilson, Director of Investor Relations.

Randy Wilson, Director of Investor Relations

Good morning, and welcome to the Terex first quarter 2022 earnings conference call. A copy of the press release and presentation slides are posted on our Investor Relations website at investors.terex.com. In addition, the replay and slide presentation will be available on our website. I'm joined by John Garrison, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Julie Beck, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Their prepared remarks will be followed by Q&A. Please turn to Slide 2 of the presentation, which reflects our safe harbor statement. Today's conference call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied. In addition, we will be discussing non-GAAP information that we believe is useful in evaluating the company's operating performance. Reconciliations for these non-GAAP measures can be found in the conference call materials. Please turn to Slide 3 and I'll turn it over to John Garrison.

John Garrison, CEO

Thank you, Randy, and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone to our earnings call and appreciate your interest in Terex. I would like to begin by thanking all Terex team members for their efforts in this challenging global operating environment, with production disruptions and COVID impact. Team members are working diligently to improve our performance for customers and shareholders. We are seeing strong global customer demand in our business. Bookings of $1.8 billion increased 19% year-over-year. Record backlog of $3.5 billion increased 17% sequentially and 73% compared to the prior year. The global operating environment has become increasingly difficult and unpredictable. With that said, our supply chain team members are working hard to minimize production disruption and to deliver for our customers. Next, let me take a moment to address the war and its impact on Terex. First, our thoughts are with the Ukrainian people. During the first quarter, we stopped accepting new orders from Russia and Belarus. We have no manufacturing and limited historical sales into Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. However, the recent increases in commodity prices, energy costs, and logistics resulting from the war are adversely impacting the company. Despite these challenges, Terex team members have worked together to drive our strategic priorities, execution, purposeful innovation and growth. Turning to Slide 3, we are proud of all Terex team members, who are keeping themselves and others safe. I would like to thank our team members around the world for their continued commitment to our Zero Harm safety culture and Terex Way values. Safety remains a top priority of the company driven by Think Safe, Work Safe, Home Safe. Our strong commitment to Zero Harm is driving improvement of safety metrics, such as total recordable incident rate, which has significantly improved over the past six years. This is a testament to the hard work and dedication of our team members. Please turn to Slide 4. Our strong environmental, social, and governance programs deliver stakeholder value. We continue to progress on our ESG journey with leadership from our Board of Directors and executive leadership team. During each quarterly investor call, we will feature one of our pillars of our ESG strategy, and we will report progress. This quarter we are highlighting social responsibility, which includes diversity, equity, and inclusion, or DEI, employee engagement, and community support. I am proud that many of our team members are actively participating in our affinity groups, which include veterans, women, working parents, pride, and non-majority team members. For example, our working parents group is very active in supporting each other during this demanding time for working families. In addition, 3,000 team members participated in our March International Women's Day events throughout the world. Our goal is to capture the full potential of Terex by making sure every voice is heard and team members feel valued and welcome. Affinity groups give team members an opportunity to support one another, grow their networks and provide education. Each of our executive leadership team members is sponsoring one of our eight global affinity groups. One of our objectives is to drive action around social responsibility including increasing female and non-majority representations throughout the company. Our executive team's compensation is aligned with these goals. I want to recognize our team members' impact on their communities, which clearly demonstrates that Terex Way values its citizenship and service leadership. Our materials process from team members in India are partnering with local non-governmental organizations to fund children's rights and education. Our Noida team members will participate this quarter in a habitat for humanity project and environmental cleanup. Also, team members in the company have donated to the Ukrainian relief efforts. We are pleased with our progress on our ESG goals. Please turn to Slide 5 to review our financial highlights. The team delivered solid financial results for the quarter. Sales of $1 billion were driven by continued strong global customer demand with continued cost management. Operating margin of 7.4% improved year-over-year and earnings per share of $0.74 increased 32% compared to the prior year. Overall, first quarter financial performance demonstrated continued strong execution of our team members in a dynamic and ever-challenging operating environment. Please turn to Slide 6. Our MP segment is a diversified, high-performing portfolio of businesses. MP's brands have leading market positions with excellent end market, product, and geographic diversification. MP's global demand remains strong, demonstrated by a 24% increase in bookings and a record backlog of $1.2 billion, up 66% year-over-year. Our Powerscreen and Finlay brands are benefiting from strong, global aggregate demand. We have leading market positions with our mobile crushing and screening products. Growth of environmental and waste recycling solutions is driving demand for our Ecotec and CBI products. The MP team has taken existing product designs and modified them to service the fast-growing environmental and waste recycling markets. The strength of residential construction is driving demand for our cement products as US housing inventory is being replenished. Our advanced mixer business has launched new products and features. Our Fuchs material handlers are benefiting from high scrap steel prices. In addition, Fuchs machines' operating hours are higher, which drives parts revenue. The strength of commodity prices is driving demand for front of pick & carry cranes in Australia. This product is being redesigned for the growing Indian market, which is the largest pick & carry crane market in the world. MP's end market diversification is a strength. All these markets are growing and provide strong demand for our leading MP brand. MP's end markets are also strong demonstrated by a 16% increase in bookings and a record backlog of $2.3 billion, up 77% year-over-year. Construction, infrastructure, and industrial applications are driving demand for Genie solutions. Applications for Genie products include data centers, warehouses, and manufacturing facilities. The replacement cycle in North America and Europe is positive as fleets age and customers have strong utilization rates. Globally increased adoption continues to improve labor efficiency and job site safety. Except for China, demand ran strong for Genie products in all regions. Our utilities business will benefit from the electric grid expansion as well as anticipated infrastructure bill related spending in 2023. Further the business will participate in the demand for 5G telecom across the United States. The business has robust demand as customers look to reserve multiyear production slides. Our new state-of-the-art Watertown South Dakota facility has the capacity to support this growth. Turning to slide 7, our Execute Innovation and Growth strategy will continue to strengthen our operations in 2022 and allow the company to capitalize on strong demand in our end-markets. First, the team continues expansion into new markets and geographies which have high-growth potential including recycling, material handling, and electrification. MP continues to build out ProStack, bulk handling product offerings, and distribution channels. This is an excellent adjacency to our existing material handling solutions. In AWP the Genie substation utility boom demonstrates a partnership between our Genie and utilities business to deliver a new insulated boom for electric substations where an operator cannot use the bucket trucks. Our parts and service teams are investing in digital offerings for dealers and customers including My Terex and Lift Connect. Enhanced features include improved service analytics allowing customers to maintain their equipment and reduce downtime. Timely information such as utilization rates and fuel consumption improves customer operating performance; online product information and intuitive parts and service order functionality. More than 60,000 machines are fitted with this technology and more enhancements are under development. We are also expanding our utilities customer service footprint with the new Atlanta facility. In addition to technology and customer experience, we continue to invest for growth both organically and inorganically. In February, we made an investment in Viatec with their plug-and-play electronic power take-off system. This demonstrates our commitment to support the electrification of utility fleets that allows trucks to operate without engine idling. This solution supports our customers' ESG needs by eliminating noise and carbon emissions. It also lowers operating costs and extends the life of utility equipment, by reducing engine operating hours. This week we announced the acquisition of a heavy fabrications manufacturer based in Northern Ireland. This purchase supports MP's growth strategy by increasing fabrication capabilities and capacity. These actions and investments demonstrate our commitment to executing on attractive growth priorities that support our strategy. Turning to slide 8, an important part of Terex's organic growth is our new Monterrey Mexico facility. I recently visited the temporary facility where our highly engaged and talented Genie team members are currently producing telehandlers. The team is building a strong operational foundation based on the Zero Harm safety culture and Terex Way Values. I also visited the site of the permanent facility, which is early in the construction phase and progressing well. Local supply chain development is also underway. The Monterrey team came together over the past year from multiple industries, and they are doing an incredible job. It has been great to see the excellent teamwork among our local Monterrey, broader Genie, and corporate teams working together to create a world-class manufacturing facility. Please turn to slide 9. Geopolitical issues and local COVID policies are causing increased disruptions and significant cost increases in materials, logistics, freight, energy, and labor. These headwinds have constrained our growth. However, we are aggressively managing these challenges. In the quarter COVID cases continued to increase. At Terex, we had more cases in Q1 2022 than we had during the full year of 2021. This adversely impacted production and efficiencies at our facilities as well as our suppliers. Towards the end of Q1, China's COVID policy started causing a significant disruption to our Changzhou and Jiading facilities. This is also impacting many of our China-based suppliers, further increasing disruption in our global supply chain and logistics. The team is battling headwinds every day by mitigating cost pressures and minimizing production disruption, by staying close to suppliers and expanding our supply base. Redesign components to maximize the availability of critical inputs to improve production, providing transparent communications of delivery and cost headwinds to our customers, and implementing price increases in response to inflationary cost pressures. In this dynamic environment, our operations, sales, and customer service team members are demonstrating resilience and flexibility to increase production deliveries for our customers to overcome these global challenges. And with that, I'll turn it over to Julie.

Julie Beck, CFO

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. Let's take a look at our first quarter financial performance found on slide 10. We reported sales of $1 billion, up 16% year-over-year, primarily due to increased volume and price. Foreign currency translation negatively impacted sales by $32 million, or approximately 3.5% in the quarter, as the euro weakened against the dollar. Gross margins declined by 180 basis points in the quarter, as pricing actions partially offset cost increases. Our AWP business recognized $3 million of benefits related to prior periods from the reinstatement of tariff exclusions and a business tax refund. Recall that we were not able to ship all 2021 priced orders in 2021 due to component availability. Input costs for steel, hydraulics, engines, brakes, and logistics have increased on a year-over-year basis, on a sequential basis, and since our last earnings call. Despite the highly inflationary environment, SG&A expense was $3 million lower than the prior year. SG&A percentage of sales improved to 11.1%, by 210 basis points from the prior year, as strict expense management control continued. Operating margins of 7.4% was up 30 basis points compared to the prior year and up 40 basis points sequentially through disciplined cost control. First quarter operating profit of $75 million compared to $62 million in the prior year. The current quarter operating profit included $5 million of charges in corporate and other, associated with restructuring severance and litigation charges related to former product lines. Interest and other expense was approximately $4 million lower than Q1 of 2021, primarily due to reduced interest expense on debt levels that were lowered by $239 million. The first quarter 2022 global effective tax rate was approximately 18.5%, as we recorded favorable discrete items in the quarter. Our global effective tax rate estimate for the year remains at 20.5%, consistent with our previous outlook. First quarter earnings per share of $0.74 increased 32%, representing an $0.18 improvement over last year. The financial callout had a $0.02 per share negative impact in the quarter. Incremental margins of 9% for the quarter were below our target of 25%. As we discussed in February, in the first half of the year our incremental margin framework of 25% is challenged as inflation continues to escalate. Our return on invested capital remains strong at 19.2%. Free cash flow for the quarter was negative $72 million, which was consistent with past historical patterns for the first quarter. We have not yet received an approved $39 million IRS refund. I will discuss free cash flow in more detail later in my prepared remarks. Let's look at our segment results, starting with our Materials Processing segment found on slide 11. Pictured here on the slide are excellent examples of our growth investments in MP, our Ecotec recycling product line, and Terex Washing Systems. MP had another strong quarter, with sales of $453 million, up 20% compared to the first quarter of 2021. And the business ended the quarter with a backlog of $1.2 billion, up 66% from a year ago. Booking activity was particularly strong in our aggregate and environmental businesses. In these challenging markets, MP increased our operating profit by 31% in the quarter and reported operating margins of 14.2%, up from last year by 120 basis points and sequentially by 40 basis points. MP has been able to show consistent performance, even in this inflationary environment. The team continues their excellent operational execution. On Slide 12, see our Aerial Work Platforms segment financial results. AWP sales of $552 million increased by 16% compared to the prior year. AWP first quarter bookings of $1.1 billion were up 16% year-over-year with particularly strong booking activity in the utilities business. Backlog at quarter end was $2.3 billion, up 77% from the prior year. Both Genie and utilities have taken multiple price actions over the course of 2021 and 2022 to address inflationary cost pressures. AWP delivered operating margins of 5.9% in the quarter up from last year by 30 basis points and sequentially by 110 basis points driven by strict expense management. Excluding the financial call out benefits in the quarter, operating margins were consistent with the prior year. The Genie and utility teams are working diligently to deliver every day. I am proud to work with them as we continue to drive operational improvement. Please see Slide 13 for an overview of our disciplined capital allocation. To provide you some color on our free cash flow performance. Historically, the business is in a negative free cash flow position in the first quarter. In the first quarter of 2021, our free cash flow was positively impacted by $15 million of tax refunds and $7 million of net benefits from the sale of our TFS portfolio. Q1 2022 has improved when compared to our historical performance in the first quarters of 2019 and 2020. Free cash flow in the quarter of negative $72 million was adversely impacted by increased inventories of $108 million. The higher inventory levels were a result of a $42 million increase in hospital inventories awaiting installation of final components and a $44 million increase in raw materials to support our backlog. Now let me detail some uses of our cash in the quarter. We continue to reinvest in our business, with capital expenditures and technology investments of $23 million. A large portion of our capital expenditures is related to our modern Mexico facility. Returning cash to our shareholders is an important element of our disciplined capital allocation strategy. The company increased its quarterly dividend per share in February to $0.13, an 8.3% increase. In addition, we completed $18 million of share repurchases in the quarter and we believe that Terex shares are an attractive investment. We had $122 million remaining on our share repurchase program. Finally, the company has significantly deleveraged over the past four years and strengthened its balance sheet. Outstanding gross debt has been reduced by $738 million since the first quarter of 2019, a 50% decrease and $239 million since the first quarter of 2021, or a 24% decrease. We have no near-term maturities until 2024 and 81% of our debt is at a fixed rate until the end of the decade. Our net leverage remains low at 1.35 times, which is well below our 2.5 times target through the cycle. We have ample liquidity of $753 million. The company is in an excellent position to run and grow the business. Now turning to Slide 14. We are reaffirming our full year company and segment 2022 outlook that we shared with you in February. Supply chain challenges continue, but inflation pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, and highly restrictive China COVID policies have gotten worse since we've last spoke to you. It is important to recognize this unprecedented environment could change this outlook positively or negatively. Our performance in the first quarter was better than expected. As for commercial demand, we continue to see strong bookings activity in the first quarter. We ended the quarter with a backlog of $3.5 billion. However, our sales outlook reflects the latest dialogue with our suppliers. Sales are not a function of demand, but rather the ability of the supply chain to deliver components. We have the internal capacity to produce more and have demonstrated such in the past. Operating margins are expected to steadily increase throughout the year as price-cost dynamics improve. MP's margins of 14% to 14.5% will be relatively balanced throughout the year. AWP's operating margin of 7.8% to 8.5% reflects price realization improving throughout the remainder of the year. In the second quarter, we expect AWP's operating margins in the mid-single digits. Operating margins are expected to improve in the third and fourth quarters as pricing actions take effect. With that said, incremental margins in the first half of the year are anticipated to be negative but improved in the second half and be above our 25% target. MP had an outstanding second quarter in 2021 with operating margins of 16.4%. So the business has a difficult year-over-year comp for the second quarter of 2022. In addition, MP's incremental margins are negatively impacted by investments in new products and manufacturing capacity. AWP also had a strong second quarter in 2021, delivering 11% operating margin as sales recovered and there were minimal inflationary pressures. Therefore, unfavorable price-cost dynamics in the first half of 2022 will result in incremental margins below our target, but increasing to above our targets in the second half of the year. Turning to free cash flow. We expect improved free cash flow in the next three quarters and we reaffirm our $175 million to $225 million outlook. Finally, I would like to reaffirm our earnings per share outlook of $3.55 to $4.05. And with that, I will turn it back to you, John.

John Garrison, CEO

Thanks, Julie. Turning to slide 15 to conclude my prepared remarks. Terex is well-positioned to deliver increased shareholder value because we have strong businesses, strong brands, and strong market positions combined with record backlog upon which we can grow. We will continue to invest in new products and manufacturing capacity along with strategic inorganic growth. We will continue to execute our disciplined capital allocation strategy and we have demonstrated resiliency and adaptability in an increasingly challenging environment. I am confident this will result in Terex being an even stronger company. And with that, let me turn it back to Randy.

Randy Wilson, Director of Investor Relations

Thanks, John. As a reminder, during the question-and-answer session, we ask you to limit your questions to one and a follow-up to ensure we answer as many questions as possible this morning. With that, I'd like to open it up for questions. Operator?

Operator, Operator

Your first question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Nicole DeBlase, Analyst

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys.

John Garrison, CEO

Good morning, Nicole.

Nicole DeBlase, Analyst

So the 1Q margins were definitely I think better than expected. But incrementally inflation has stepped up versus when you guys provided your original outlook. So maybe you could talk a little bit about how the price/cost equation is looking for the full year relative to how you were originally thinking about it?

John Garrison, CEO

Thanks, Nicole. So the objective of our pricing strategy really across our global businesses is to offset material and logistics cost increases. We took pricing actions in late 2021 as inflation began to accelerate. But unfortunately, it was not enough. And so we had to take additional actions across the company in 2022. We are being transparent with our customers and our distribution partners regarding the level of inflation that we're seeing and why we need to take the additional pricing actions. I'll also comment that our supply chain teams are pushing back hard on our suppliers. But, nonetheless, we are seeing inflationary impact. And so in the AWP business, again, we took pricing actions late 2021; it was not enough. And so we implemented further price actions in April to mitigate the inflationary pressures that we're seeing. And our outlook is that price realization will improve throughout the year. For AWP, and this was consistent, Nicole, we do anticipate being price cost negative in the first half of the year, and price cost neutral for the full year as that price realization improves. If we look at our MP business, MP has done a really good job offsetting most of the material and logistics inflations that we've seen around the globe. And they've been dynamic in updating their pricing and we expect that they will continue to be dynamic as we go forward. And even though their pricing has been more dynamic, as we know, we've seen greater inflationary pressures here this year as a result of the war in Ukraine, which impacts our MP business, given their production capacities in Europe. And so we're looking for them to also take further price actions as we progress and we're expecting MP for the full year to remain price cost neutral. So again, that's our pricing actions. We're being transparent with customers, being clear on what we need and why we need to take these pricing actions. They're difficult conversations, but absolutely necessary, given the unprecedented level of inflation we're seeing. So pricing is dynamic and it's ongoing to offset these inflationary pressures that we're facing.

Nicole DeBlase, Analyst

Got it. Thank you, John. And just as a follow-up, I mean, one of your biggest competitors talked about actually taking surcharges this week which is a total change in how the industry typically prices. And even adding those surcharges to equipment that's already in backlog, what is Terex's approach to taking the incremental price increases that you just spoke about?

John Garrison, CEO

Our approach is price actions, you can call them surcharges or price increases. We did take the pricing actions for anything that had not been delivered. So anything delivered after mid-April in the Genie business will carry the higher price.

Nicole DeBlase, Analyst

Thanks. I’ll pass it on.

John Garrison, CEO

Appreciate it.

Randy Wilson, Director of Investor Relations

Operator, next question?

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Stephen Volkmann, Analyst

Great. Good morning, folks. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe semi-related, but I just want to sort of understand the moving parts here. So last quarter, you said you expected AWP margins to be sort of low single digits in the first quarter. Obviously, they came in better than that even sort of subtracting your good guy that you described Julie. And I'm just curious, what was better than you expected? Was it price cost or just throughput supplier availability? Just what actually was better?

Julie Beck, CFO

Yes. So Steve, thanks for the question. We had a slightly higher volume and we had a bit of a favorable product mix. We had some strong execution in price cost and really the team did an excellent job on strong expense management, both operating and SG&A costs were very favorable there. We have a very strong cost control environment and they've done a really great job on managing costs. So all these things were very favorable. We did have some unfavorable exchange though, I wanted to make sure everybody knows of this. The dollar has strengthened. The Genie AWP business in particular has been impacted by the strengthening of the dollar against the euro.

Stephen Volkmann, Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. Thanks. And I guess as we think about the second quarter, it sounds like you're kind of thinking margins are flattish sequentially on what I assume is up revenue sequentially, but correct me if I'm wrong there. But that seems conservative, or have things sort of deteriorated at the margin that that's sort of a more realistic outlook?

John Garrison, CEO

Go ahead, Julie. I'll take the first part. Steve, on the volume side, and we can talk a little bit more on the supply chain, but with the changes in China and the COVID policies there, we have a large production facility that produces for China, but also exports out of China to the rest of the world other than the United States. And so we're seeing some softness in production as a result of those COVID. So we're looking at probably flattish revenue year-over-year in the AWP segment. And Julie, you want to comment on the margin side?

Julie Beck, CFO

Yes. Margins will be up slightly just due to a little bit more pricing actions coming through in the second quarter.

Stephen Volkmann, Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

John Garrison, CEO

Thanks, Steve.

Operator, Operator

Your next question is from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Tami Zakaria, Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

John Garrison, CEO

Good morning, Tami.

Tami Zakaria, Analyst

Good morning, how are you? So, given you have taken multiple price increases year-to-date can you remind us what's the volume and price mix embedded for the full year sales growth? And also, if you could remind us what the mix was in the first quarter's 16% growth you saw?

Julie Beck, CFO

Thank you for the question, Tami. In the first quarter, we experienced more price growth than volume growth. Specifically, about two-thirds of our increase was due to price, while a third was related to volume, which was impacted by foreign exchange at 3.5%. Looking at the full year, we anticipate further pricing increases, but we are also facing higher costs and unfavorable foreign exchange. We expect volume to increase a bit more than our previous guidance, around 6%.

Tami Zakaria, Analyst

Got it. Thank you. And also, can you talk about the recent Northern Ireland steel fabricator acquisition? Anything you can share on what kind of sales and margin accretion you expect over time? And how this fits into the overall portfolio?

John Garrison, CEO

Thank you, Tami. The recent acquisition we made is primarily about vertical integration. We needed to gain control over the operations. They are a significant producer in heavy fabrication, and we've collaborated with them for a long time. Ensuring our growth in the MP business in Northern Ireland, particularly in the crushing and screening sector, was essential. We needed to manage the fabrications, especially with a change in control within the business. We believed it was vital for us to take charge of that fabrication process to secure the necessary growth moving forward. In essence, this acquisition is about vertically integrating our supply chain.

Tami Zakaria, Analyst

Great. Thank you so much.

John Garrison, CEO

Thanks, Tami.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

David Raso, Analyst

Good morning. It looks like the numbers add up, and I know that corporate expenses will decrease sequentially due to the one-time item in the first quarter. However, it seems like there are both positives and negatives in the second quarter, maybe around $0.85 or so. What I'm trying to understand is that for the latter half of the year, you would need approximately $2.20 to reach the midpoint of the guidance. This situation feels like a balancing act between improving prices and the negatives, particularly the lockdowns in China and the repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, especially regarding your cost structure in Europe. Can you help clarify how you are approaching the guidance for the second half, considering these factors? I understand it's difficult to predict, but is there any consideration for handling the China lockdowns differently or expecting some degree of reopening? Additionally, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine situation seems to particularly affect the profitability of MP. I'm just trying to assess whether the earnings in the second half could exceed those in the first half, despite the contrasting influences of price improvements and these two significant challenges.

John Garrison, CEO

Yes. Thanks, David. And you're right. Price cost, given the pricing actions we need to see improvement in the back half of the year clearly on the price/cost side. I think David really the way we're looking at it is that this is not a demand issue; it's a supply issue. And what we're doing is we're looking at what's the demonstrated capacity of our suppliers and we've built our outlook around that demonstrated capacity. They've demonstrated $1 billion, $1.1 billion type of level of capacity to meet our needs. And so, we've built our outlook around that. And in terms of the supply chain performance, we didn't see an improvement in the supply chain in the first quarter. As a matter of fact, we saw some deterioration in performance. We're anticipating in other parts of the world we do see a slight improvement, but not substantial improvement in the supply chain to meet our forecasted needs. A bit of a challenge right now is COVID in China. It has impacted our facility. The good news is we haven't been shut down completely, but we have had rolling shutdowns based on the ability to have material in the plant so our team member can work. Our suppliers are experiencing similar phenom. And so, based on the best information available, that's how we've laid out our outlook for the second half of the year, and it's really in that $1.1 billion kind of range and that's the demonstrated capacity that suppliers have exhibited frankly for the last couple of quarters, and we're not anticipating a significant improvement. Now, if we do get a significant improvement, clearly the demand is there, and we'll be able to produce and deliver more. But right now, the constraint is the supply chain and the new variable here in the last 60 days, 30 days is really the China COVID policy and what impact that has on the global supply chain. And so that's obviously what we're managing, and we believe our outlook comprehends the best available information available.

David Raso, Analyst

Yeah. And I'm just trying to think mathematically, if it's sort of like $0.85 Q2, it has to go up roughly call $0.20, $0.15 sequentially to get to that sort of $1.10 run rate in the back half every 100 bps of price cost improvement is about $0.10 right? So it seems like there's a couple of hundred bps of improvement in price/cost and then just hopefully a little improvement in the lockdown situation. Is that the rough math on how to think about the swing from the first half negative price cost to second half positive price cost? It's at least a couple of hundred basis points and that kind of gets you the incremental EPS.

Julie Beck, CFO

So David, you're correct. What we'll see for AWP is the operating margins of 7.8% to 8.5%, and it improves sequentially over time as price realization improves throughout the remainder of the year. And for the MP business, operating margins remain relatively flat in that 14% to 14.5% for the year. They just continue to do an outstanding job each quarter.

David Raso, Analyst

The AWP price cost swing is the main factor for the second half, and we will monitor the developments regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation. If we can manage some lockdown assistance, it will boost AWP volume in addition to the price cost. The impact of the situation in Russia will affect costs for MP, which has already led to margins being lower than expected. Overall, we anticipate a relatively flat performance for the rest of the year. Thank you very much.

John Garrison, CEO

Okay, that's a fair assessment, David.

David Raso, Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

Your next question is from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Jamie Cook, Analyst

Hi. Good morning and nice quarter.

John Garrison, CEO

Thanks Jamie.

Jamie Cook, Analyst

My question is on backlog on AWP. Obviously I think you're at $2.3 billion, which suggests you're starting to take orders for 2023. Can you just sort of help us understand how contractually one whether you are? And how you're contractually making sure we don't have price protecting yourself, right? So we don't have price cost headwinds in 2023 whether you have any surcharges in there or contract relief for 2023? And then since you announced the April price increase, have you seen any change in order patterns as a result of that? Thank you.

John Garrison, CEO

Thanks, Jamie. I'll answer the questions in reverse order there. So, broadly across the globe, we haven't seen any significant order installations as a result of the price actions that we've been taking. Of course, there are pockets at times. We saw some in our utilities business based on municipal contracts. But in those cases actually, it went to rebid and we were able to win the bid. In terms of the Genie or the Aerials business, the good news is we are seeing quite strong demand. Our rental companies are in really good position. They're seeing record levels of utilization. Their business is strong. We're entering into the replacement cycle. And I think the replacement cycle is going to continue. And I think it's probably going to continue to be pushed a little bit to the right, because of the industry's ability to meet the demand from a capacity standpoint. So we are having discussions with customers. We do have orders that are flowing into 2023. The way in which we have handled it, is we have provided indicative pricing that is provisional and that will be reviewed at the end of the year as we get closer to the time of actual production in the beginning of delivery. So we are not locking in pricing for 2023 at this time. We've provided provisional indicative pricing for all customers that are interested. They are taking some production slots, but we have the ability to go back at the end of the year and adjust prices based on what the material and material conditions are at that point in time in the year, and into 2023, I might add.

Jamie Cook, Analyst

John, just as a follow-up in terms of who's coming in for 2023, is it the nationals, or is it pretty broad-based across your customer base? And then I'll get back in the queue. Thanks.

John Garrison, CEO

Yes, Jamie, it's really broad-based. So it's across all customer segments and North America, European-based principally right now in North America, but we're seeing strong demand all over the world right now in Genie, except for China. So it's broad-based across the customer segment.

Jamie Cook, Analyst

Thank you very much.

John Garrison, CEO

Thank you, Jamie.

Operator, Operator

Your next question is from the line of Stan Elliott with Stifel. Your line is open.

Stan Elliott, Analyst

Hey, good morning everyone. Thank you guys for taking the question. A quick question on the Franna business. It's been a great product, great margins for you guys, taking it into China. What sort of investments will be required from you all there? Can you build it within some of your existing facilities? Just curious how that will eventually ramp?

John Garrison, CEO

Yes, Franna is a strong business in Australia, showing significant strength. The high commodity prices globally for mining are benefiting us with Franna, and we're also expanding into India. Our team is the market leader in pick & carry in Australia, but it's a smaller market. They've leveraged our front-end design and are localizing production at our facility in Hosur, where we've expanded one of our manufacturing sites. Currently, they are operating in the existing facility, but if our efforts are as successful as we anticipate, we will need to increase capacity in Hosur with a modest level of investment. This is a great example of growth and product line extension, and the MP team has been effectively driving regional growth. The initial reception has been very positive, and since India represents the largest pick & carry market worldwide, we are eager to see if we can achieve additional growth and profitability with our Franna product line there.

Stan Elliott, Analyst

And switching gears, maybe a little bit about what's happening on the M&A environment. Curious if the transaction from the other week is that really more was that with moving more into fabrication? Would you still like to be more expansive within the product categories that you're operating more on the MP side? Just curious if that marked a shift change or if there's kind of opportunistic?

John Garrison, CEO

We have a clear focus on growth through capital investments. The investments we are making in our systems and technology for organic growth are quite significant. Additionally, we have completed several smaller acquisitions in the past year and are actively working on mergers and acquisitions. Our main focus areas are within the MP businesses and relevant verticals where we see opportunities in the market structure. We have an ongoing M&A pipeline that we are pursuing. While some acquisitions may seem opportunistic, our broader goal is to secure growth in critical areas of our business, particularly in key heavy fabrication, which is crucial for our MP business. This is why we pursued the acquisition in Northern Ireland, as it allows us to enhance our growth potential moving forward.

Stan Elliott, Analyst

Perfect. Thanks so much for the time and congratulations and best of luck.

John Garrison, CEO

Thank you, Stan.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS. Your line is open.

Steven Fisher, Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. I wonder if you could just give us a little more color from the front lines of the supply chain situation. Is this still a seven-day a week frenzy kind of dynamic, or is any of it normalized a bit? And I guess related to this, on China, how much of the concern here is just concern that it might have a more global impact versus just within China, or are you already seeing it have a global impact on the supply chain?

John Garrison, CEO

The supply chain environment remains highly dynamic. While supplier on-time delivery performance has not significantly worsened, it hasn't improved either. We frequently have hundreds of parts delayed or not located at our facilities globally. Our teams have been adapting well to these challenges, but there hasn't been a notable improvement in the supply chain. We have observed a rise in what we refer to as hospital inventory, with an increase of nearly $40 million. This inventory is almost complete but awaiting one or two components for us to finish and ship. Our team is continuously managing this situation, which we would not have mentioned before. The emphasis is on resilience, adaptability, staying close to suppliers, gathering the best available information promptly, and adjusting production schedules to optimize output while minimizing disruption, although disruptions occur daily. The COVID situation in China has affected our plant, but fortunately, we have not faced extended shutdowns. Our plant has managed to operate, but some suppliers have alerted us that their secondary and tertiary suppliers are currently facing challenges, which will affect their deliveries to us. This adds another layer for the teams to address. On a positive note, when our team members in China are able to work, attendance exceeds 99%, and they are willing to put in the necessary hours to catch up. Once movement restrictions in China ease, recovery should be swift. However, we still need to manage logistics and related issues. The situation is affected by how long the zero COVID policies remain in place, with impacts varying from city to city and plant to plant. This complexity is why the situation continues to be dynamic. Our team is performing exceptionally well in navigating these challenges, both in China and globally.

Steven Fisher, Analyst

Okay. And just can you remind us what your position is on steel costs for the second half of the year versus the first half?

Julie Beck, CFO

Our initial forecast indicated that hot-rolled coil prices in the US would be $1,800 in the first half and drop to $1,200 in the second half. This assumption has now changed to $1,800 in the first half, going up to $1,400 in the second half.

John Garrison, CEO

Thanks, Steve.

Randy Wilson, Director of Investor Relations

Thank you, Steve.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Steve Barger, Analyst

Hey, thanks. Good morning.

John Garrison, CEO

Good morning.

Randy Wilson, Director of Investor Relations

Good morning, Steve.

Steve Barger, Analyst

Your comments on challenged incremental margin, especially in the first half, were totally understandable. My question is, if you come in at high teens this year for argument's sake, does that rebound above the target range next year, meaning that as you get a handle on price and supply chain, you would expect to run further into the 30%-plus range to kind of get to a two-year average on that target?

John Garrison, CEO

So, I'll take the first one, Steve, and I'll let Julie jump in. Honestly, our target as a manufacturer is 25% incremental. As we said, clearly challenged in the first half of the year; above that target in the second half of the year, we'll see as we move into 2023. Clearly, in the AWP segment, we need to be looking at something north of 25% to get to the margin levels that we think that business should operate in. On the MP side, their consistent level of operating margin sometimes they fall a little short of that 25% target, but as Julie said, that's because of some of the investments we're making. So the 25% target is our target and we'll see as we move into 2023. But clearly, in the AWP segment, we're going to have to do better than that to get back to the margin levels that we think the business should enjoy.

Steve Barger, Analyst

Understood. And you talked about the Fuchs operating hours being up and driving the parts business. How does Fuchs compare to say screening in terms of driving aftermarket parts? And can higher operating hours across the installed base really drive a material benefit to earnings, or is that just more of a modest tailwind?

John Garrison, CEO

The highest usage of parts comes from the heavy screens and crushers due to their operational nature. However, the Fuchs machines actually have the highest operating hours in terms of engine use and movement, which creates a significant revenue stream for parts. Many of our strategies are enhancing revenue in our parts business margins, and we need to implement similar pricing actions there. This presents a modest advantage for us moving forward. We believe there is potential to continue expanding our parts and service business worldwide. Thanks, Steve.

Operator, Operator

Your next question is from the line of Seth Weber with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Seth Weber, Analyst

Hi. Good morning, guys. Wanted to ask a question about Europe specifically. Just the demand environment in Europe and your ability to get pricing is it are you getting pricing at the same levels that you're getting in North America? Thank you.

John Garrison, CEO

Thanks. In terms of the pricing actions, the pricing actions are regional based on the specific cost needs in the regional markets. For both AWP and MP business, they are taking pricing actions around the globe specific to the respective products in the region. So the pricing actions do vary and we are seeking price increases in Europe both in the AWP business and the MP business as we go forward.

Seth Weber, Analyst

How would you characterize the demand levels in Europe relative to North America, or any, sort of, impact that you're seeing on a demand perspective with respect to the war?

John Garrison, CEO

Okay. In the first quarter we saw strong demand in Europe. We'll see as we move forward. But right now we've seen strong demand across both MP and AWP in Europe.

Seth Weber, Analyst

Okay. Thank you. And then just a clarification John, you talked about Utilities bookings being particularly strong. Were access bookings up in the quarter as well, or is that just all driven by utility?

Julie Beck, CFO

Yes. No, both of the businesses had increased bookings in the quarter.

Seth Weber, Analyst

At both of the parts of...

Julie Beck, CFO

Of AWP, yes, yes. Both the Genie and Utilities had increased bookings in the quarter.

Seth Weber, Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

John Garrison, CEO

No problem.

Operator, Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Jerry Revich, Analyst

Yes. Hi. Good morning.

John Garrison, CEO

Good morning.

Jerry Revich, Analyst

John, I'm wondering if you can – Hi. John can you talk about your handling of the current supply chain headwinds in China given the experience that the organization has gained over the past three years dealing with these rolling shutdowns globally. How much more global is your supply base today as you drill down and look at core underlying components, third-tier suppliers? Can you just talk about that dynamic? It feels like you're in a better position today than over the past couple of years given the work the organization has done but maybe you could quantify the supply base and provide some more color on that?

John Garrison, CEO

Yes. The team has made significant strides over the past few years with the strategic sourcing initiative, creating a global supply base. This includes manufacturers in China, particularly for castings, hydraulic components, and some electronics, where China excels. We've faced disruptions due to COVID in these areas, and we'll continue to monitor those closely. The team has worked hard to consolidate suppliers and identify key and growth suppliers who have been able to adapt. Although the tight supply environment has posed challenges, we've achieved some success in shifting supply and increasing capacity. Importantly, our significance to the supply base has fostered senior-level discussions, which have been critical during this period. The strategic sourcing initiative has helped us build essential relationships, ensuring our suppliers understand their impact on our business and utilize all available resources to alleviate constraints. The engineering teams have performed impressively, redesigning and testing components safely and effectively in timeframes we wouldn't have anticipated before the pandemic. This strategic sourcing has strengthened our connections with suppliers, making us more vital to them, which has proven beneficial. Nevertheless, with the current disruptions, on-time delivery isn't at the level we desire, but these are topics we address in our senior meetings. We have made progress and are localizing some production. As I mentioned earlier, we are moving some manufacturing to Mexico, which we believe will be advantageous for supporting both our operations in Mexico and the US. In the coming years, you'll see a shift of some production from Asia to Mexico, as it offers an attractive opportunity for us moving forward.

Jerry Revich, Analyst

I appreciate it. And I'm wondering, John, now that you have all of the telematics data in place, can you just talk about how in Europe utilization has evolved year-to-date given the disturbance in energy prices? And obviously the war, can you just talk about what the utilization has looked like in AWP in Europe in the quarter versus normal seasonality through April if you can share it?

John Garrison, CEO

Right. So, just looking at the graph as we speak, we saw good utilization increase in general, and actually January and February. We did see it decline slightly in March and a little bit more in April. Now, again, we're not seeing, in North America, especially, we're not seeing the normal seasonality impact because the demand is so strong, but we did see a little bit of a come down in operating hours in April in Europe based on our telematics data. Thanks, Jerry.

Operator, Operator

I will now turn the call back over to Mr. John Garrison for some closing remarks.

John Garrison, CEO

Thank you, operator. If you have any additional questions, please follow up with Julie and Randy. Please stay safe and healthy, and thank you for your interest in Terex. Operator, please disconnect the call.

Operator, Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.