Earnings Call Transcript - TFPM Q4 2025

Operator, Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Desiree, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Fourth Quarter 2025 Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star followed by the number 1 again. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO. You may begin.

Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO

Thank you, Desiree. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.’s fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results. Today, I am joined by our Chief Financial Officer, Eban Bari, and Chief Operating Officer, James Dendle. Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. had an outstanding year in 2025 and is extremely well positioned in 2026. We finished the year strong in Q4, resulting in record performance for full-year 2025. We achieved record production of 113,000 GEOs. This was in the upper half of our guidance range and is the ninth consecutive year-over-year increase. Higher production and higher gold prices translated into record cash flow. Cash flow per share was $1.54 per share, a 45% increase from 2024. The model is working as it is intended, directly translating higher gold prices into rising cash flow per share. We continue to benefit from rising prices in 2026. In Q4, the average gold price was $4,135 an ounce, well below current spot prices of just under $5,000 per ounce. Moving ahead to 2026, our guidance range is 95,000 to 105,000 GEOs, which reflects the well-understood mine sequencing at Northparks. It also reflects the planned step-down in the Cerro Lindo stream rate following a successful delivery of 19,500,000 ounces of silver since we acquired the stream in 2016. That was Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.’s first investment. We continue to see a long life ahead for Cerro Lindo with strong exploration potential as well as exposure to the silver price going forward. Our portfolio has significant embedded growth. Our 2030 outlook is that production in 2030 will grow to between 140,000 to 150,000 GEOs. This is approximately a 45% growth from the midpoint of our 2026 guidance. It is driven by multiple assets advancing through construction, permitting, and study stages, including Arcata, Kone, Eskay Creek, Era Dorado, and Goldfield. Importantly, it is not dependent on any one large project. Looking beyond 2030, we have meaningful GEO growth potential from several large-scale assets located in the best jurisdictions: Australia, the United States, and Canada. First, Hope Bay is located in Northern Canada and Agnico has stated that it is progressing towards a construction decision, which is expected in May 2026. Second, Centerra released a positive PEA on Kemess, targeting potential production in 2031. Kemess is located in British Columbia. Third is the Arthur project in Nevada; AngloGold is expected to imminently release a pre-feasibility study, which I am quite eager to see. Last and most significantly is our flagship asset, Northparks, located in Australia and which is clearly positioned as a significant growth asset for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. I want to congratulate Laurie Conway and the Evolution team for all the success they have had at Northparks since they acquired Northparks. It is truly impressive. A week ago, Evolution released a significant update on Northparks, which has three related catalysts for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. First, Evolution approved the development of the E22 block cave. E22 has very attractive gold grades for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., and block cave development is the value-maximizing approach for both Evolution and Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Second, Evolution has announced that it is studying expanding Northparks from the current 7,600,000 tons per annum to 10,000,000 tons per annum or potentially more. There is tremendous demand for copper and Northparks is a very large resource, so the potential value creation of an expansion is clear. This could be very beneficial to the Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. stream. And last, Evolution has identified a very attractive gold-only deposit on the property named E44. We had constructive discussions with Laurie and Kieran and their team, and together we came to an agreement that will allow for the development of E44, which was previously not included in Evolution’s life-of-mine plan at Northparks. As part of that agreement, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. will receive guaranteed minimum deliveries from E44 starting in 2030. Northparks is a byproduct stream, so the potential to also benefit from primary gold deposits is a fantastic bonus for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. and its shareholders. Although these factors together clearly position Northparks as a growth asset for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. for the next decade to come. I would also like to touch on our capital deployment in 2025. Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. invested over $350,000,000 in value-accretive deals. This included the Arcata restart and ramp-up in Peru, the Arthur Oxide project in Nevada, the Johnson Camp Mine that is ramping up in Arizona, and the Minera Florida producing mine in Chile. These transactions provide current and growing cash flow or, in the case of Arthur, represent exposure to a premier development project with a clear path to production and further exploration upside. Importantly, all of these assets are also located in mining-friendly jurisdictions. Overall, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is exceptionally well positioned to deliver long-term and organic value for our shareholders from a diversified portfolio of producing and development assets across premier mining jurisdictions. I will now turn it over to Eban to discuss our financial results for 2025.

Eban Bari, CFO

As you can see on this slide, 2025 was a record year across all financial metrics, driven by strong GEOs and record precious metals prices. As Sheldon noted, these record prices have since been broken by new records, with spot gold and silver well above even the Q4 average. Operating cash flow per share, the single most important metric we focus on as management, increased 45% to $1.54 per share. This metric best reflects the underlying operating performance of our core streaming and royalty business. This strong cash flow generation continued to support all of our capital allocation priorities given our high-margin business, including shareholder returns and external growth opportunities. On shareholder returns, we paid out nearly $46,000,000 in dividends to shareholders in 2025, which reflected a progressive 5% dividend increase in the middle of the year, our fourth consecutive increase since our IPO. In addition to our dividend, we were active and accretive on our share buyback during the year. In 2025, we bought back $9,000,000 of our shares in the open market at approximately $17.39 per share. We expect to remain active on our NCIB opportunistically going forward. On the external growth front, as Sheldon mentioned, we reinvested over $350,000,000 into new streams and royalties in 2025. Arcata, Arthur, Johnson Camp Mine, and Minera Florida all provide either immediate or near- to medium-term cash flow, significant exploration potential, and exposure to premier mining jurisdictions with strong operators. I am pleased to highlight that even with this level of capital deployment, and as a result of our strong cash flow generation, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is debt-free at year-end with more than $70,000,000 in cash, and $1,000,000,000 available on our credit facility. We remain well positioned to deploy capital into transactions that are accretive, fit with our strategy, and deliver value throughout a cycle. Moving forward to 2026 guidance, as Sheldon noted, expect GEOs of between 95,000 and 105,000 ounces for the year. We expect these GEOs to be all derived from gold and silver and reflect a conservative gold-to-silver price ratio of 72 for the whole year, with a lower ratio assumed in the first half. Depletion is expected to be between $65,000,000 and $75,000,000, slightly lower than 2025, reflecting the sales mix we expect in 2026. G&A costs are expected to be between $30,000,000 and $32,000,000, consistent with our actual expenses in 2025 that reflect the impact of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.’s strong share price increase throughout the year on share-based compensation expense. Finally, our Australian cash tax rate for Australian royalties will be approximately 25%, consistent with prior year actual. I will now pass it on to James to discuss our asset portfolio.

James Dendle, COO

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. has achieved a consistent track record delivering long-term GEOs growth since our first full year of operation in 2017. Beyond the guidance we have set for 2026, we see further organic growth to 140,000 to 150,000 GEOs in 2030. Midpoint to midpoint, this represents annual growth of 45% from 2026 guidance, which I will discuss further on the following slide. Our long-term organic growth outlook of 100,000 to 150,000 GEOs in 2030 is robust and reflects the achievement of several de-risking milestones delivered by our operators over the past twelve months. We are seeing meaningful progress across the portfolio, supported not only by a constructive commodity price environment but also by favorable permitting regimes across the jurisdictions to which we have exposure. Arcata, Kone, Eskay Creek, Era Dorado, Goldfield, South Railroad, and Delamar are a few examples of the many assets in our portfolio that are advancing rapidly towards production or steady-state ramp-up over the medium term. Touching on only a few of them, we were exceptionally pleased to see in 2025 the Eskay Creek project in British Columbia receive full permits in less than one year after submission, Aura Minerals receive a construction license for Era Dorado within one year of its acquisition, and Centerra’s renewed focus on the Goldfield project as a straightforward heap leach operation in Nevada. Beyond 2030, our portfolio is expected to deliver further GEOs growth from Arthur, Kemess, Hope Bay, as well as the growth initiatives at Northparks, which I will discuss in the following slides. Beyond 2030, Arthur, Kemess, Hope Bay, and Northparks represent world-class, long-life assets located in the most stable and established mining jurisdictions. They provide substantial growth potential beyond our 2030 outlook and demonstrate the quality of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.’s portfolio. At Arthur, we see the imminent release of a pre-feasibility study by AngloGold as an important catalyst in providing greater insights on the potential of this district-scale system, starting with the Merlin and Silicon deposits as straightforward oxide open pit projects. Arthur will be a cornerstone asset for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. in the 2030s.

Cosmos Chiu, Analyst

Thanks, Sheldon, Eban, and James. Maybe my first question is at Northparks. Great to see that you are investing more money into Northparks at the E44 deposit.

Joshua Mark Wolfson, Analyst

I guess my question is, are there more opportunities like that in terms of, you know, something similar to E44, gold-rich? Something that would not be in the mine plan unless there is a partner coming in and helping to put up some of the CapEx. And then maybe if you can also talk about the geological setting because it must be a very, you know, clear variety of different geological settings here. If there are copper-rich deposits and gold-rich deposits, I am just trying to figure out where some of these gold-rich deposits came from.

Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO

Yeah. Thanks, Cosmos. This is Sheldon. I will start and then pass it over to James. So historically, the Northparks property, you know, had gold deposits, kind of shallow surface gold deposits. It was very interesting. Now, of course, when we came in and did the stream, we really did the stream as a byproduct stream, you know, which works. We get about 60% of the gold revenue that Evolution gets from Northparks. So that works if the primary revenue is the copper. But if it is gold-only, we had to come to the table with Laurie and the team and work something out. But this is really exciting for us because the idea of getting, you know, a gold-only deposit there and us also having access to that was really key. There is nothing else right now on the horizon, but is there potential there? Well, I will let James speak to that. But there have been, you know, gold-dominant deposits on that property in the past.

Joshua Mark Wolfson, Analyst

Yeah. And Cosmos, it is James. As Sheldon noted, the first mining at Northparks is actually, as you probably remember, the mid-1990s as a gold project, and it was actually first explored with shallow ore for gold mineralization. So there is a history there, but it very clearly transitions to a copper deposit for the last, you know, twenty-five years or so.

Operator, Operator

So

Joshua Mark Wolfson, Analyst

you think about it geologically, yes, that gold is clearly associated with copper. And it is a very prospective region. And I think what we are seeing with Evolution is exactly what we hoped when they acquired the asset. They think very expansively and very creatively about how to maximize value from operations. I think that has been a big part of their success with assets like Ernest Henry. And they are applying the same approach to Northparks, which is to say, you know, there is a lot of resource. Let us look at expanding capacity. And then with that expanded capacity, what else can we do with it, which has caused them to really look at the gold deposits in a way that was not done in the past? And the short answer is, you know, E44 is the most known. Mhmm. But there are a large number of targets across the property that are sort of known from some of the historical work but have not been tested and defined in a systematic manner, which I think really speaks to the opportunity to find more of this type of mineralization, which with the expanded mill capacity, Evolution can take advantage of.

Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO

Hi, Cosmos. We have always said that our sweet spot is really in the $200,000,000 to $500,000,000 range, and I do not think that that changes. And when you look back, you know, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. actually is coming up on our tenth anniversary. Over the last ten years, the vast majority of the capital deployment in the sector has been in that strike zone. So I feel really good about that. You know, there was a large deal done earlier this week, and $4,300,000,000 is too big for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. I think that is okay. But there is plenty out there I think that we can grow and deploy on. And, again, relative to our size, I think we definitely have an ability to grow because when you look at the size of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. and $350,000,000 of deployment, that is meaningful. So if we do a $400,000,000 deal, that moves the needle for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., and I think that will do very well by our shareholders.

Joshua Mark Wolfson, Analyst

Great. And then maybe one last question. As you talk about the different growth opportunities within your portfolio, I guess one asset you did not mention was Pumpkin Hollow. I know there is a bit of history behind it. But now it seems like Pumpkin Hollow has a new owner, Kintera, and they seem to have, you know, be able to raise a lot of capital. So, you know, Pumpkin Hollow, once again, is this something that we should start talking about? Is there something that we should start getting excited about? Or is it still too early at this point in time?

Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO

Yeah. So we retain a royalty on the Pumpkin Hollow open pit. And that actually, I think, looks like a really nice royalty because that is copper in the United States, and we are a royalty and we are on title, and that has survived all the processes that went on there. So I am quite keen to see what Kintera is doing there, and that represents some very nice copper exposure from the United States for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. shareholders. Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. will not be investing any more money in Pumpkin Hollow. I can say that clearly.

Joshua Mark Wolfson, Analyst

Great. Again, Sheldon, James, and Eban. Those are all the questions I have. Thank you. Thanks, guys.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Tanya M. Jakusconek with Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Tanya M. Jakusconek, Analyst

Oh, great. Good morning, everybody. Can you hear me?

Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO

I can. Hi, Tanya.

Tanya M. Jakusconek, Analyst

Oh, good morning. Hello. I have a couple of questions if I could. Start with a very easy one. Can you know, I know that you use a very different ratio. I just, you know, just kind of want to assume, like, a flat gold price, flat silver price, etcetera. Can you give us just an idea how the year is going to look like from a quarterly perspective? You know, we have some step-downs. We have other things happening. So I am just trying to understand how should we think first half, second half, etcetera.

Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO

Yes. Hi, Tanya. We give our annual guidance. We are not breaking it down by the quarters. And you have kind of correctly identified the one factor, which is the Cerro Lindo step-down will occur sometime in the second quarter, I believe, but I cannot give any more quarterly guidance over and above that.

Tanya M. Jakusconek, Analyst

Okay. What about the capital returns? I think those are, you know, you focus on the dividend and you like the fact that you progressively increased that dividend. How should we be thinking about it for midyear?

Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO

Yes. I think nothing has changed on our philosophy on capital allocation. So as you cited, we have a progressive, increasing dividend. We have increased it every year since being public. I see no reason why we would change that. I think it goes over very well with shareholders. So that is the dividend. And then, you know, we are looking to deploy capital into accretive opportunities for shareholders. It is really that simple.

Tanya M. Jakusconek, Analyst

Okay. And in terms of the opportunities, I think you mentioned that $200,000,000 to $500,000,000 range being your sweet spot and seeing some bigger deals. So I have a couple of questions on this front. The first thing is I have noticed two people shopping in their own closet. It is Osisko and Wheaton. Are there any other things to do in shopping in your own closet? Any other opportunities on assets you own?

Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO

That is an analogy I have not heard before. I like it. You know, I guess that we just posit it all the time. You know what? It is natural when you have a relationship with a party or you already have a position in a property that those are the things you look to. And, you know, with Northparks, that was obviously a natural for us. And would we look here for other opportunities like that? Yeah. Perhaps. But these things are never done till they are done, and I do not want to start front-running anything. But, you know, we try to engage closely with all of our partners.

Tanya M. Jakusconek, Analyst

And in terms of opportunities that are out there, would you say most of them now are focused on asset builds, or are there royalty portfolios still available? We saw one last night as well. Any color on opportunities that are out there?

Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO

You know, it is going to be the same answers as has been received by, I think, everyone for the last little while. There is a variety. You know, there are third-party assets that are coming up for sale. There are people looking for financing for various things, you know, and that can be development or that could be other reasons. I would not say there is any one big thematic out there, and it is kind of our job just to look at the opportunity set and try to generate some of our opportunity set as well. So I would not say there is any one sort of theme that I am seeing out there. The opportunity set looks pretty robust to me, and I think we have seen, you know, not just ourselves, but other people deploy. You know, I think that bodes well for the sector as a whole.

Tanya M. Jakusconek, Analyst

Okay. And then we have seen some very big silver opportunities. Are there any smaller ones that fit that $200,000,000 to $500,000,000 range that you are seeing out there?

Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO

Yeah. And, again, I would not consider $200,000,000 to be small for a company of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.’s size. That would be quite meaningful. There is still a variety of opportunities. There are also gold opportunities out there. You know, I think our focus is always probably gold first, silver second. But, you know, we like precious metals. If it is a good silver asset or a good gold asset, we really want to be on good assets with good operators.

Tanya M. Jakusconek, Analyst

Yeah. I take it. When I meant the smaller silver opportunities, that was relative to the $4,300,000,000. So it was a relative—

Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO

Yeah. Most things are small relative to $4,300,000,000.

Operator, Operator

Alright. No worries. I will leave the room for someone else to ask questions. Thank you for taking my questions.

Joshua Mark Wolfson, Analyst

Good morning, and thank you for taking my question.

Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO

Could you just give us an update on ATO and maybe if you assumed any contribution this year, and then as you go out to 2030, what you are thinking, i.e., expansion or baseline? If you just give us an update on that, that would be great. Thank you. Yeah. Hi, Brian. It is Sheldon. I will answer that one. Look, ATO is in litigation. We have been quite upfront with the market on that. We feel very confident in our position. And, you know, that process is going to the court, so I cannot say too much. But what I will say, and I think this is really pertinent, I am glad you asked the question. We took it out of our 2026 guidance, and we took it out of the 2030 figure as well. So that does not reflect our confidence in our position, but rather we just want to remove it as a potential distraction for investors to have to get a handle on. So when you look at those figures we put out for 2026 and for 2030, there is zero contribution from ATO in there, and ATO is only upside, not downside, relative to those figures.

Joshua Mark Wolfson, Analyst

Great. Thanks very much, Sheldon. Very clear. Thanks, Brian.

Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO

Thank you very much. Really appreciated speaking with everyone, and looking forward to a great 2026. Bye.

Operator, Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today’s call. Thank you all for joining in. You may now disconnect.