Earnings Call Transcript - TGB Q3 2025

Operator, Operator

Thank you all for being here. I would like to welcome everyone to the Taseko Mines 2025 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. I will now hand it over to Brian Bergot. Please proceed.

Brian Bergot, Host

Thank you, Jericho. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining Taseko's Third Quarter 2025 conference call. The news release and regulatory filing announcing our financial and operational results was issued yesterday after market close and is available on our website at tasekomines.com, and on SEDAR+. With me in Vancouver today is Taseko's President and CEO, Stuart McDonald; Taseko's Chief Financial Officer, Bryce Hamming; and our COO, Richard Tremblay. As usual, before we get into opening remarks by management, I would like to remind our listeners that our comments and answers to your questions will contain forward-looking information, and this information, by its nature, is subject to risks and uncertainties. As such, actual results may differ materially from the views expressed today. For further information on these risks and uncertainties, I encourage you to read the cautionary note that accompanies our third quarter MD&A and the related news release, as well as the risk factors particular to our company. These documents can be found on our website and also on SEDAR+. I would also like to point out that we will use various non-GAAP measures during the call. You can see explanations and reconciliations regarding these measures in the related news release. And finally, all dollar amounts we will discuss today are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise specified. Following opening remarks, we will open the phone lines to analysts and investors for questions. I will now turn the call over to Stuart for his remarks.

Stuart McDonald, CEO

Great. Thanks, Brian. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call today to discuss the third quarter financial and operating results. As usual, I'll provide some commentary focusing on the operational results, and then Bryce will get into the financial performance for the quarter. As outlined in our release yesterday, third quarter results were definitely an improvement over the previous two quarters, both operationally and financially. Mining in the connector pit had presented more challenges in the early part of this year than we anticipated. But on the positive side, the higher mining rates in the last two quarters have opened up higher-grade benches that we've been expecting. In the third quarter, grades increased to 0.22%, which is up from 0.19% in the first quarter and 0.20% in the same quarter. This higher-grade ore and less transitional oxide material both benefited mill recoveries, which increased to 77% in the third quarter. Mill throughput has been very steady this year, consistently operating at around design capacity. So overall, copper production in the third quarter was just under 28 million pounds, which includes 900,000 pounds of cathode production from Gibraltar's SX/EW operation. Molybdenum production in the quarter was 560,000 pounds, a significant increase from prior quarters due to higher molybdenum grades, which typically track copper grades. Costs in the quarter were USD 287 per pound, an improvement over the previous quarter. Total site costs were $7 million higher than the prior quarter, mainly due to SX/EW costs now being expensed and increased maintenance costs. Maintenance costs, including parts and major components, continue to see steady inflation. All of this resulted in $62 million adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter. Looking ahead, we expect to finish the year strong with a solid fourth quarter. Gibraltar produced 11 million pounds of copper in October, marking the mine's highest production month in two years. The quarter is off to a good start. We will provide formal guidance for 2026 in the new year as we usually do. However, generally speaking, we're anticipating a more consistent year next year with less quarterly volatility. Now shifting over to Florence, we have achieved several major milestones recently, and the operation is now well on its way to producing its first copper. In September, our general contractor achieved substantial completion of the SX/EW plant in the plant area, a significant accomplishment for our project team. In just 18 months since breaking ground on Florence, our team has successfully delivered this major capital project on time and within previous cost estimates. It’s a great achievement, and the project is now entering the commissioning phase. In mid-October, we received the final regulatory approvals needed to start wellfield operations. We then initiated a short commissioning period, which included pumping water from the well to establish hydraulic control in the wellfield. Several usual commissioning issues were identified and resolved, and in early November, we began acidifying the commercial well field. Overall, we’re a few weeks behind our original plan, but we’re very pleased with wellfield performance so far, as initial flow rates are meeting or even exceeding our expectations. Half of the wellfield is being acidified now, and the second half will start up in about a week. In the following weeks, we expect to see the grade of copper in solution from the wellfield rise to a level where we can activate the SX/EW plant and start producing copper cathode. The commissioning of the plant is progressing alongside the initial operations in the wellfield, and we expect to commence copper production early in the new year. A key element of the production ramp-up in 2026 will be our ability to develop and integrate additional wells into operations. We are preparing to restart drilling activities with two drills set to begin in November, with an additional two drills being added early next year. The operating team in Florence continues to grow. Recruiting has gone well, bringing us to around 140 employees on site now. It’s a busy and exciting time for everyone involved. It’s an ideal moment to be launching a significant new supply of refined copper within the U.S. The copper markets and prices remain strong, and there are intriguing dynamics in the U.S. cathode market. Although there are currently no U.S. import tariffs on refined copper, the potential for future tariffs has sparked speculative trading activity and rising capital inventories within the U.S. The COMEX space has continued to trade at a premium to the LME recently at roughly 4% or about $0.20 a pound. However, it appears that the quoted COMEX price may not accurately reflect realizable market values, and capital sales in the U.S. could be at a higher-than-normal discount to the COMEX price. Yet, we still observe a premium to LME pricing. We will keep monitoring this situation as we begin cathode sales from Florence in the next few months. The U.S. government plans to reevaluate tariffs in the middle of next year, with a possible 15% tariff on cathode expected by the end of 2026, potentially rising to 30% by the end of 2027. In the long term, this highlights the strategic significance of Florence, which is set to become one of the few U.S.-based suppliers of refined copper. Before I hand the call over to Bryce, I want to touch on our recent equity offering completed in October. The proceeds have greatly strengthened our balance sheet. We have now repaid the $75 million drawn from our revolving credit facility, and the remaining funds will support working capital leading up to the Florence ramp-up next year. We also plan to increase spending at Yellowhead next year for environmental and engineering work to facilitate the environmental assessment process. In the third quarter, we held open houses in local communities, and initial feedback has been quite positive. The permitting process for the Yellowhead project is off to a good start, and we continue to see it as an important long-term growth project for us. And with that, I’ll turn it over to Bryce.

Bryce Hamming, CFO

Thanks, Stuart. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. Total copper sales for the quarter were 26 million pounds, which includes 900,000 tons of cathode. This was slightly below production due to shipment timing at the end of the quarter. We achieved a strong average realized copper price in the quarter, just shy of USD 450 per pound, in line with the LME average. And this has still continued to strengthen since the quarter end. This strong copper price translated into total revenue of $174 million, which includes $14 million from moly sales. The combination of higher sales volume and strong pricing drove a 50% increase in revenue quarter-over-quarter. On an adjusted basis, we reported net income of $6 million or $0.02 per share. For GAAP purposes, we reported a net loss of $28 million or $0.09 per share, and that was primarily due to unrealized foreign exchange losses on our U.S. dollar denominated debt and an unrealized derivative loss related to our copper collars we have in place. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $62 million, a significant increase over prior quarter, driven by the higher sales and stronger copper price. Capitalized stripping for the quarter was only $6 million, and it was substantially lower than the previous 2 quarters, and that reflects our progress deeper into the connector pit, where the strip ratio has declined and access to ore has improved. Turning to Florence, we spent USD 27 million on the commercial facility this quarter, and that brings our total capital spending since the start of construction to USD 267 million. We achieved substantial completion with our contractor in Q3, and we only have a few million more on this capital project to finish the year. This is within a few percentage points of our original construction budget since the start of 2024, and it's a testament to the execution of our capital projects team. Operating costs at Florence were $8 million in the quarter, and these will increase as we continue hiring full-time staff and ramp up our well field operations, and that will include the procurement and consumption of assets going forward now our operations are underway. We ended the quarter with $91 million of cash. In October, we closed an equity financing of USD 173 million, and we used $75 million of that to pay down our revolver. And with capital spending at Florence largely behind us now and improving production at Gibraltar. And coupled with this cash injection from this financing, our liquidity outlook is robust. We're well positioned to support the ramp-up at Florence and advance our work at Yellowhead. That concludes my remarks, and I'll now turn it back to the operator to begin the Q&A session.

Operator, Operator

Our first question comes from Duncan Hay from Panmure Liberum.

Duncan Hay, Analyst

Can you discuss the advantages of accelerating the wellfield drilling and bringing it forward? I assume you're facing capacity constraints at the plant, but what kind of flexibility or assurance does this provide you?

Stuart McDonald, CEO

Well, I think initially in the ramp-up period, the key for us is going to be opening up additional wells. The constraint is going to be not the plant, but the amount of solution flows that we can get off the wellfield. So it will be key to be advancing that forward. So we've got 2 drills starting up here in November, an additional 2 early in the new year. And in Q2 and Q3 next year, we'll see those additional wells start to come online and contribute to the ramp-up. So no, it's a big part of the plan. I think it's always been part of the plan. But yes, glad that we've got a solid balance sheet, and we can move forward confidently with that work now.

Duncan Hay, Analyst

You will release guidance in the new year, but considering your thoughts from six months ago, is it possible that you could have increased production next year based on your current position?

Stuart McDonald, CEO

We will see. We are not providing production guidance today. The technical report is available and includes some drilling assumptions. However, we are optimistic about what we see currently; the early results from the wellfield are encouraging, but it is still early. We continue to make progress, and the first copper will be a significant milestone for us early next year.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Craig Hutchison from TD Cowen.

Craig Hutchison, Analyst

I realize you guys aren't going to provide guidance for next year until, I guess, early next year. But just curious how you guys think about the kind of milestones for declaring commercial production. Obviously, ISRs are relatively new for most people. Just how do you guys think about that in terms of production rate you need to get to, to clear commercial product and is it the 60% of design? Or is there some kind of metric that you guys look at to determine that?

Stuart McDonald, CEO

Yes, Craig, we're not thinking about it in that way. I know that's a conventional way it's been done in the past for concentrators. It's going to be a steady ramp-up of production through 2026. And yes, as I said, the key is going to be bringing on new wells, but we should see sequential growth each quarter in the copper production. I don't know, Bryce, do you want to make a couple of comments about the accounting? So we see, I guess, the rules have changed in recent years.

Bryce Hamming, CFO

Yes. The main focus will be on our C1 costs. We will evaluate when our production generates operating cash flow and operating profit. Given the nature of the operating costs, we expect to see this occur relatively soon, possibly by midyear. As we continue the ramp-up, our emphasis will be on free cash flow and ensuring we earn enough to support the ongoing sustaining capital with the wellfield development, which we anticipate to see by the end of next year and beyond. The two key milestones we are targeting are first, achieving operating profit and operating cash flow, and second, generating free cash flow. These are our primary objectives as we approach commercial operations.

Craig Hutchison, Analyst

Okay. So I guess until you reach your mid next year, do we assume that some of the costs will be capitalized or the moment you guys are producing sellable cathode, you'll start booking revenues right away in terms of kind of accounting? Do we think about revenues next year?

Bryce Hamming, CFO

Yes. The accounting standards changed a few years ago, and we now recognize revenue once a sale is made. This means that even the initial pounds of cathode will be recorded as sold. From a capital standpoint, there will be some costs associated with the plant that get capitalized until it is fully operational. However, the most important aspect of this operation is the wellfield development costs, which include the drilling and development of the wells that will also be capitalized. Therefore, we should expect significant ongoing sustaining capital to be added to the balance sheet and then amortized over the life of the well.

Craig Hutchison, Analyst

Okay. Great. And maybe just one last question for me. Just in terms of the capital, you effectively now complete the initial capital spend at this point? Or is there still some lingering costs into Q4?

Stuart McDonald, CEO

Effectively, the work is complete. There'll be a few costs, commissioning costs that kind of trickle in, in Q4. I think we still probably have some of the cost and payables, right, that will come through the cash flow. But effectively, the construction piece is complete.

Operator, Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to the Taseko team for closing remarks.

Stuart McDonald, CEO

Okay. Thanks, everyone, for joining. And yes, if there are other questions, feel free to reach out to any of us. And otherwise, we will talk to you next quarter. Thanks, again.