Earnings Call Transcript - TIGO Q4 2023

Operator, Operator

Hello, everyone and welcome to our Fourth Quarter 2023 Results Call. This event is being recorded. Our speakers today will be our CEO, Mauricio Ramos; our President & COO, Maxime Lombardini; and our CFO, Sheldon Bruha. The slides for today's presentation are available on our website, along with the earnings release and our financial statements. Now, please turn to Slide 2 for the safe harbor disclosure. We will be making forward-looking statements which involve risks and uncertainties and could have a material impact on our results. And on Slide 3, we define the non-IFRS metrics that we will reference throughout the presentation, and you can find reconciliation tables in the back of our earnings release and on our website. With those disclaimers out of the way, let me turn the call over to our CEO, Mauricio Ramos.

Mauricio Ramos, CEO

Good morning, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. As you likely recall, we set four key priorities at the beginning of 2023. We will update you in detail on each of these priorities in the next several slides, but here are the key highlights. First, we continue to make very meaningful strides in executing Project Everest to improve our operational efficiency across the business. During the fourth quarter, we implemented Phase 2 of the project in each of the nine countries where we operate. The headline is that we are exceeding our own expectations for cost savings. Second, in Colombia, the strategy we laid out some years ago and our increased focus on driving profitability are now really paying off in a combined manner. EBITDA was up more than 24% year-on-year, excluding severance, and the margin reached 38%, which is another record for this business. This, even as we continue to build our mobile subscriber base. We are achieving this while also optimizing our CapEx because we are now harvesting the very significant investments we have made in Colombia over the past several years. As I told you during our Q3 call, we're not done yet in improving Colombia. In fact, our performance in Q4 does not yet reflect the additional actions we have taken in the quarter and in January of this year. So stay tuned for more on Colombia. Third, in Guatemala, the strategic initiatives we put in place over the past couple of years to protect our business are also now paying off. During Q4, we were able to build on the progress we made throughout the year, and we had strong prepaid service revenue growth on a sequential basis compared to Q3, much higher than what we have seen in the last few years. You will recall that we raised prices on our most popular prepaid plans in mid-September. The market has reacted positively, and we have decided to pull through a price increase on all of our remaining plans in early February of this year. So, we continue to feel cautiously optimistic about the outlook for top line growth in Guatemala going forward. Fourth, on Lati, our regional tower portfolio, we launched the monetization process during Q4. Because this is an ongoing M&A process, that's all we can say about this for now. So again, stay tuned on Lati. And finally, here's the combined effect of all these initiatives put together, the punchline, if you will. We are raising our outlook and we're now targeting equity free cash flow of around $550 million for 2024. As a result, for the three-year period between 2022 and 2024, the cumulative outlook is now for around $700 million of equity free cash flow. Often, you have heard us say that our equity free cash flow for the 2022-2024 period will be back ended, and that 2024 would be the year of the cash flow. We're now ready to deliver on that promise. The strategic initiatives initiated over the past few years, combined with a revamped and reinforced focus on profitability are making this happen. Now, let's review each of these points in more detail beginning with Project Everest on Slide 6. For this, I have asked our COO Maxime Lombardini to share with you the key components of the extensive program.

Maxime Lombardini, COO

Thank you, Mauricio and hello, everyone. As many of you recall, Millicom began implementing its efficiency program at the beginning of 2023, and initially communicated an ambition of achieving run rate savings of more than $100 million by year-end 2024. Shortly after I joined the company in early September, we increased the scope of Phase 2 of the program, to include deeper headcount reductions and cost savings initiatives in our centralized functions. During Q4, we extended Phase 2 to each one of our country operations, unlocking total savings of more than $250 million. And it is important to emphasize that we have already implemented a vast majority of the initiatives that are needed to deliver those savings this year. So, the achievability of our targeted savings is not only largely in our control, but also already in the bank. You can start to see some of these savings in our Q4 results with EBITDA excluding severance reaching almost $600 million, which is a record high for the company. And I'm pleased to tell you today that we are off to an excellent start in the first two months of the year on both service revenue and profitability. On this slide, we have summarized for you the most important action that we have taken, and the areas where we have focused our efforts. I won't discuss each point, but suffice to say that the efficiency program is not just about reducing headcount. Yes, headcount is an important contributor and close to 5,000 employees left the group. But as I told you on the Q3 call, we have been reviewing all of our spending. Strong control on OpEx, employee recurring cost, contents, external services, real estate optimization, IT and network OpEx, and a huge work on optimizing CapEx has been done too. We invest where and when it has a strong impact on quality and sales. This cost control is backed by an ambitious simplification plan. We are simplifying the legacy of our portfolio and streamlining the IT to make it more flexible and less expensive. And even though we are still in February, I'm already beginning to work with the teams to identify the next round of opportunities that will allow us to reduce costs further in 2025, without sacrificing any of the investments that are needed to grow our customer base and revenues, and sustain our network quality and market leadership. And one more thing. Being back to profitability is good news for the shareholders, but it is important for the employees and managers too. I feel a strong support to the strategy. Mauricio, back to you.

Mauricio Ramos, CEO

Thank you, Maxime. I want to recognize and thank both you and Atlas for helping us take Project Everest, and please do excuse the pun, into new heights. Atlas has helped make the project far more ambitious, its reach wider, and its execution faster, and your leadership in execution, Maxime, has been fantastic. Now, let's look at Colombia in more detail on Slide 7. As I told you a few moments ago, our plan to improve profitability in our second largest country operation is really beginning to pay off. EBITDA is up more than 24% year-on-year excluding severance, thanks to record margins. And as Maxime mentioned, we optimized CapEx and this drove a very strong increase in OCF in 2023. And we have achieved this while maintaining strong commercial momentum in our mobile and B2B businesses. And we also saw improving trends in our own business during the fourth quarter, even though we continue to remain very disciplined in Colombia. The point we're making is that we're beginning to harvest the very significant strategic decisions and investments that we have made in Colombia the past several years, including the following: First, we bought and renewed spectrum that has allowed us to add coverage and capacity on our mobile network. This has led to a big improvement in customer experience, and it has also helped to strengthen our brand, and we have gained market share despite the arrival of a new and disruptive entrant in the marketplace. The strategic move and its associated investment wave started in 2020 during the pandemic, and it is now winding down. Second, over these years, we have deployed tens of thousands of kilometers of fiber. We built state-of-the-art data centers and we retooled our sales force to capture our share of the rapid growth we're seeing for cloud and other digital services from our B2B clients. Again, much of this investment is also behind us. Third, and after many years of investing to upgrade and replace our legacy copper network and to grow our customer base, we implemented a number of commercial initiatives in early 2023, aimed at reducing churn and improving the profitability of our home business in Colombia. Looking forward, we expect to see further improvement in the financial performance of our Colombia business. Specifically, our agreement with Telefonica to combine our mobile networks and spectrum portfolios will unlock very important cost, CapEx, and spectrum synergies beginning this year. You already saw that at the end of December when we bought 5G spectrum in Colombia jointly with Telefonica, thanks to this initiative. We should benefit from the various actions taken as part of Project Everest during Q4 and in January of this year. When we put all of this together, and that is a key point, we see Colombia showing a very significant improvement in equity free cash flow in 2024. In fact, because of these initiatives combined, we expect Colombia will be the biggest contributor to the year-on-year improvement in cash flow in 2024. And we are targeting that Colombia will be equity free cash flow breakeven this year. With that, all of our country operations are expected to be equity free cash flow positive this year. Now, please turn to Slide 8 to look at Guatemala. As you know, our focus over the past year or two has been to help bring about a more stable competitive dynamic. The most critical prerequisite for this is to have a level playing field with regards to spectrum and to network. As you know, for the last three years, our competitor perceived that it had an advantage on spectrum, and its attempt to leverage that perceived advantage led to disruptive pricing in the market. As you know, we have now solved for this after completing two very successful and transparent spectrum auctions. This has freed up a lot of capacity on our networks, and there's now spectrum parity, and we're starting to see more rational pricing behavior in the market. As you may recall, we raised prices on some of our prepaid plans in mid-September, and we've seen the market react positively to this. As a result, we saw an encouraging uptick in prepaid revenue, when you compare Q4 sequentially to Q3. This is working out the way we had expected, and we have gone ahead and implemented a similar price increase on our remaining prepaid plans in early 2024. So the outlook for Guatemala is improving as we long expected it would while investing in spectrum and network capacity. We're now modestly optimistic as pricing and revenue trends have stabilized, efficiencies from Project Everest are lifting margins, and the spectrum we acquired is allowing us to optimize our network investments. So in summary, our plan for Guatemala is beginning to show it is working. As a result, we expect Guatemala will be the second biggest contributor to the year-on-year improvement in equity free cash flow in 2024. Now let's move to Slide 9 on Lati. As I said during my introduction, we launched the monetization process during Q4. This process is marching on, so there is not much that we can or should say at this point as we're in the middle of active M&A activity. Before turning the call over to Sheldon, I would like to very briefly summarize what we have done to prepare the company for this moment, to make it the platform that it currently is, to help make 2024 the year of our cash flow. First, we invested heavily in network and spectrum. Some of you will recall a time when TIGO was primarily a prepaid mobile operator with a legacy copper network in Colombia. Today, we're market leaders in mobile and we have become one of the top providers of fixed services to both residential and to a growing number of B2B customers. This is a direct result of the very significant investments we have made to deploy fiber and other digital infrastructure across our entire footprint. Second, as we evolved from prepaid to subscription-based customer relationships and revenue streams, we invested to make sure we could deliver the best possible customer experience, and we embrace the use of digital tools to do this in a cost effective manner. Third, these steady investments have helped to fortify the strength of our brand. Tigo is top of mind in all of our markets, not only as a leading provider of world-class telecom services, but also as an employer of choice, which attracts the best local talent and leads by example by doing business the right way. Fourth, we have reallocated capital in a very meaningful way by disposing of all of our assets in Africa where we had no scale, and by reinvesting to build what is today a number one position in Panama, both in mobile and fixed in just over four years. Panama is the most stable and fastest growing country in the region, with a dollar economy and a stable industry structure today, and to increase our ownership in Guatemala, our most cash generative operation, and also a stable economy with a stable currency and a stabilizing two-player market. Based on our 2024 budget, we expect these two stable countries, Guatemala and Panama, where we have deployed most of our capital over the past few years to be the two largest contributors to our group equity free cash flow in 2024, again, Guatemala and now Panama. These significant capital allocation decisions over the past few years have helped us create the platform that we have today. And as Maxime explained earlier, we now actively are moving to a cost structure that will help us harvest the fruits of these investments, set colloquially, to make the platform now profitable, to drive a material increase in equity free cash flow beginning in 2024, to make 2024 the year of our cash flow. With that, I will hand it over to Sheldon to discuss the financials for the quarter.

Sheldon Bruha, CFO

Thank you, Mauricio. Now, let's look at our Q4 financial performance beginning on Slide 12. Service revenue was $1.38 billion in the quarter, which was up from $1.28 billion a year ago. Excluding the impact of FX, organic growth was 3.2% in the fourth quarter. Our mobile businesses have low single digits, while fixed and other services grew mid-single digits. The faster growth in fixed largely reflects the contribution of large B2B contracts during the quarter. B2B, which includes mobile, fixed, and digital services, grew at 19.6%, our strongest growth rate in recent years. Going down further on Slide 13 for the service revenue by country, Guatemala declined 2.3%, mainly due to the benefit of the World Cup in Q4 of 2022. Excluding this effect, the service revenue decline narrowed to 0.5% versus last year, the second consecutive quarter of improving revenue trends. Columbia's service revenue grew 3.4% in local currency as mid-single-digit growth in mobile, and high-single-digit growth in B2B more than offset the decline in home. Panama's service revenue grew 18.9%, fueled by large B2B contracts, and the strong growth in mobile. Bolivia's service revenue grew 0.8% with growth in mobile and B2B offset by a decline in home, where we continue to prioritize price discipline. This was the first positive quarterly service revenue growth in five quarters as we have now fully lapped the prepaid data regulatory impact from August of last year. Paraguay service revenue grew 5% in local currency, with all three business units contributing. This rounded off a very strong year for this business in which service revenue grew 7% in 2023. Finally, our remaining markets in Central America performed reasonably well. El Salvador performance was flat, but this compares against a robust performance in Q4 of 2022. Okay. Turning to EBITDA on Slide 14. EBITDA of $557 million was up 1.6% year-on-year from $548 million from a year earlier. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, EBITDA declined 2.2% on a constant currency basis year-on-year. However, included in Q4 EBITDA were $42 million of one-off severance costs related to Project Everest, which I'll talk about later. Excluding severance incurred in Q4, EBITDA would have been approximately $600 million and would have grown 5.3% organically. Now, turning Slide 15. During Q4 2023, we continued the implementation of the second phase of Project Everest, which resulted in one-off severance expenses in all nine of our countries of operations. All of the Q4 2023 figures on this slide have been adjusted to exclude such severance. Guatemala EBITDA was nearly flat, excluding the effect of the World Cup in Q4 of 2012, EBITDA would have grown 2.6%, marking a notable improvement from recent trends driven by improved pricing trends in prepaid mobile as well as our cost initiatives. Colombia EBITDA accelerated 24.5% organically due to both mobile revenue growth and home price discipline, as well as savings from Project Everest. The EBITDA margin was a record 38.4%. Panama EBITDA grew 10.8%. As I mentioned earlier, we had a lot of B2B revenue in the quarter and some of this is coming in with lower margins, which is why you see margin decline in year-over-year. Paraguay EBITDA also grew 10.8% organically and the EBITDA margin expanded to 45.2%. We're very pleased with our performance in Paraguay in the quarter, and for 2023 as a whole. Bolivia EBITDA declined 4.6% due to a $3 million regulatory fine attributable to historical year. Otherwise, EBITDA was flat year-over-year. El Salvador EBITDA declined 0.9%. As I mentioned earlier, Q4 of 2022 was a strong quarter, so we had a more challenging comparison there. Nicaragua EBITDA increased 8.4% in local currency with all business units contributing to the solid performance. Finally, for Honduras, which we do not consolidate, EBITDA rose 5.7% in the quarter as well as for the full year, with EBITDA margins of 46.3%, the second highest of the group. Now, please turn to Slide 16 for an update on Project Everest. During the fourth quarter, we continued the implementation of Phase 2, which involved headcount reductions of approximately 20% on average in each of our nine countries of operations. This is on top of the almost 40% headcount reductions we previously announced in our headquarters and centrally-managed functions. This resulted in $42 million of additional severance costs in the quarter, bringing the full year total to $87 million. In addition, as we finalize Phase 2 in the first few months of 2024, we anticipate taking additional charges of between $30 million and $35 million in the first half of this year. Most of this relates to Columbia, where we executed on a voluntary retirement program in January. As a result of all these actions, we now anticipate to realize total savings of more than $250 million from this program. This is more than double our initial ambition. And as Maxime commented, a vast majority of these cost-saving initiatives have already been implemented, and so we are highly confident in our ability to deliver these savings in 2024. Now, please turn to Slide 17 for our usual net debt bridge. During the quarter, net debt declined by $53 million to end Q4 with just under $6 billion of net debt. The key factors that contributed to the decline in net debt were $39 million of equity free cash flow generation during the quarter, $74 million benefit from our partner share of the equity capitalization in Colombia, and $13 million from having repurchased bonds below par value. During the quarter, we repurchased and canceled $80 million face value of bonds. Additionally, we repurchased and canceled just over another $100 million face value of bonds in the beginning of 2024. These factors were partially offset by $48 million from the revaluation effect of the stronger Colombian peso on our local currency denominated debt, $17 million of taxes related to the carve-out of Lati, and approximately $7 million of share repurchases and other minor items. Beginning in Q4 2023, we have amended our definition of leverage to conform with our most common practices amongst our peers. We now define leverage as a ratio of our net debt over the latest 12 months of EBITDA after leases. And on this basis, leverage ended Q4 at 3.29 times, down from 3.32 times at the end of Q3. Now, please turn to Slide 18 for a look at our equity free cash flow in 2023 compared to 2022. Equity free cash flow in 2023 was an outflow of $18 million excluding $17 million of Lati carve-out taxes, and this compares to an inflow of $171 million, excluding Africa in 2022. The changes year-on-year are explained primarily by the following items. On the negative side, we had $143 million increase in spectrum payments to acquire new spectrum in the 2.6-gigahertz and 700-megahertz band in Guatemala, and to renew our 1,900-megahertz license in Colombia; $117 million decline in EBITDA from continuing operations, primarily due to $106 million of one-off expenses related to the organizational restructures and to adverse rulings in Colombia, as well as increased competitive intensity in Guatemala; and $71 million increase in finance charges due to an extra $23 million semi-annual coupon on the Guatemalan Comcel bonds issued in January 2022, higher rates on our variable rate debt primarily in Colombia, and commissions on the purchase of dollars in Bolivia. On the positive side, we had the following items: $84 million reduction in tax payments due to lower taxable profit in 2023 and the impact of a $40 million tax amnesty in 2022; $15 million reduction in working capital due to collections on receivables from a large B2B contract in Panama as well as the effect of severance and legal ruling expenses not yet paid; and $26 million reduction in cash CapEx, reflecting lower levels of commercial activity and investments in our home business unit, especially in Colombia and Bolivia. Now, please turn to Slide 19. As we have announced today, we are targeting equity free cash flow of around $550 million in 2024. This implies free cash flow of around $700 million for the 2022 to 2024 period, which compares to our previous three-year target of around $600 million that we communicated in December. Underpinning the increased target and the stronger equity free cash flow outlook in 2024 are higher expected savings from Project Everest that we discussed earlier in the presentation, lower expected capital expenditures and spectrum spend, as well as the strong start to the year that we are seeing in January and February that Maxime indicated earlier. This outlook for free cash flow generation puts us back on track to bring leverage down below 2.5 times by 2025. This target excludes any cash proceeds and related taxes stemming from potential Lati transactions and excludes cash proceeds from the separate tower transaction we announced in Colombia. With that, we're now ready to answer your questions.

Operator, Operator

Thank you, Sheldon. We'll now begin the Q&A session. And as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please let us know by emailing us at investors@millicom.com, and we will add you to the queue. Our first question is coming from Marcelo Santos at JP Morgan. Marcelo. Line is yours.

Marcelo Santos, Analyst

Thank you. Good morning to everyone. I appreciate the opportunity to ask a couple of questions. First, I would like to inquire about the outlook for margins in Colombia. You've recently achieved a new record. What are your ambitions moving forward? Are the margins currently a bit unusually low due to the slower addition of broadband subscribers? If you were to return to a more typical rate of additions in the future, how would that affect the margins? My second question pertains to Project Everest. I assume some cost savings have already been included in the 2023 figures. What are the expected incremental cost savings for 2024 compared to 2023? I understand there is a run rate, but what should we anticipate in terms of additional savings beyond what has already been reported for this year? Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos, CEO

Thank you, Marcelo. As usual, let me take Colombia a little bit big picture first, and the outlook for Colombia, and then of course, I'll hand it over to a combination of Sheldon and Maxime, who can give you the operational CapEx and financial details around Project Everest. Listen, on Colombia, the outlook has dramatically improved since back in the summer when we were dealing with a capital infusion and a ton of uncertainty around whether we would be able to pull together or not the final details around the combination of our network with Telefonica. Over the last couple of years, as you know, we've been able to invest in that 700-megahertz network, which has proved to be phenomenal for us to gain mobile market share volume. Pricing has become more stable as the new incumbent has realized that that is a better strategy for them to grow revenue in the marketplace. And of course, we've put a joint network with Telefonica that has allowed us to buy spectrum together. So, you're already beginning to see the improvements on Colombia. All of these combined a more rational pricing market, and our ability to combine network and spectrum with Telefonica, the pickup in volume that we have had as a result of the 700-megahertz, and now significant savings from Everest, and efficiencies coming from Everest, make the outlook for Colombia quite positive. And that's why you heard us say during the call that we believe Colombia going forward can deliver a lot more, and as a matter of fact, it's a country, as you heard us say many, many times, that was not making equity free cash flow. And in 2024, we're aiming for breakeven or positive and that makes it the largest contributor to our equity free cash flow swing. Now, Everest, in its revamped, strengthened form also had an impact in Colombia, and I'll hand it over to Sheldon and Maxime to give you more details.

Sheldon Bruha, CFO

I would like to share a few comments about Colombia. Recently, we introduced a new voluntary separation plan in Colombia, which was launched in January. We have incurred approximately $17 million in costs associated with this plan so far, and it is still ongoing. This initiative adds extra margin cushion for our business to manage potential increases, especially in the home segment. The separation program, along with other simplification efforts, provides us with flexibility and a buffer for margins as we navigate the home market. Regarding our exit from the year on Everest, we aren’t being as specific as with other programs. However, it’s important to note that when adding back the severance charges of approximately $42 million from Q4, our EBITDA for the quarter was just under $600 million. This reflects the run rate of the business as we finish the year, which annualized is around $2.4 billion. This amount does not include all the opportunities we still have to implement; we have mentioned several of these, including the Colombia initiative. I expect to see more opportunities from Everest contributing to the numbers in 2024, positively impacting the EBITDA line as well as service revenue growth.

Mauricio Ramos, CEO

Okay. Maxime, anything to add to that?

Maxime Lombardini, COO

I would like to share some insights on why we raised the projected savings from Project Everest. I joined the company in September, and we quickly began reducing the headcount at the headquarters. We expanded the scope of this headcount reduction, but as you can understand, we can't implement everything at once. Most of these changes occurred in Q4, but some are still in progress. Additionally, we have terminated several contracts that were committed until the end of 2023, but the full impact of those changes will materialize in 2024, including significant contracts and subcontractor adjustments. The benefits from simplifying our operations, restructuring the company, and improving processes will be fully realized in 2024. Several smaller changes, such as how we handle advertising, manage roaming, and optimize our real estate, were addressed towards the end of 2023, but you'll notice the complete effects in 2024. This is the rationale behind the increased savings projection. We are confident in the figures we shared because most of them are already secured, and we still have some flexibility available.

Marcelo Santos, Analyst

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Mauricio Ramos, CEO

Overall, Marcelo, it feels like Colombia is now well-understood and under control. Pricing is more stable. We got network and capital synergies, and spectrum renegotiations are behind us. We have the ability to work on network spectrum with Telefonica. So it really is a more positive outlook on Colombia overall.

Operator, Operator

Thanks, Marcelo. Next, we're going to go to Phani Kanumuri at HSBC. Phani, the line is yours.

Phani Kanumuri, Analyst

Thank you, everyone, for taking my question. The first one is about your free cash flow guidance. When we last spoke during the quarterly conference call, you announced a cumulative guidance of $500 million, which you have now increased to nearly $700 million. Is this increase entirely due to organic growth from Project Everest, or is there also some inorganic contribution? Additionally, could you discuss any impacts, such as the legal case with Telefonica and the recent developments in New York? That's my first question.

Mauricio Ramos, CEO

We anticipated questions about our updated guidance, so we plan to address this from three angles to provide a comprehensive response to everyone on the call. First, I will outline the sources of growth in our equity free cash flow, aligning with my prepared remarks. After that, Sheldon will delve into the P&L components that influence this cash flow, followed by Maxime who will offer insights from an operational and Everest perspective. Firstly, regarding the sources of equity free cash flow, I previously mentioned Colombia, which remains a significant contributor due to its strategic advantages and project outcomes that enhance its margins and cash flow. I won't rehash those points as we've discussed them thoroughly. The second major contributor is Guatemala. Over the past three years, we've invested in our network's density to defend market share, including spectrum investments to improve network quality. We've faced pricing pressures due to perceived spectrum shortages, but this has improved significantly in the last two quarters as we've acquired additional spectrum. This allows us to optimize our network without further spectrum investment, creating a more stable pricing environment. Consequently, Guatemala is returning to growth with margin expansion tied to our updated Everest strategy, which is also performing well. In summary, both Colombia and Guatemala are operating under a controlled growth model, and these are our largest markets. Additionally, we have seen remarkable progress in Panama, where we have become the top player after not being present four years ago, making it our second-largest contributor to equity free cash flow in 2024, alongside Guatemala. When we combine these contributions with our enhanced ambitions for Everest, it becomes clear why we expect 2024 to be a strong year for cash flow. Over the past six months, as our strategies took effect in Colombia and Guatemala, we have been able to focus on Everest and improve our methodology and execution, thanks to the efforts of Atlas and Maxime at a crucial time. This has also contributed to our renewed cash flow expectations. Moreover, we find ourselves in a period of reduced spectrum spending. The years 2022 and 2023 were marked by significant spectrum renewals in Colombia and acquisitions in Guatemala, including 5G developments with Telefonica. Moving forward, we expect more normalized spectrum views. We have also heavily invested in Lati, which has entered the monetization phase. When we look at everything together, it solidifies our expectation for 2024 to be a pivotal year for cash flow. With this broader perspective in mind, I will now turn it over to Sheldon for more details, followed by Maxime to share insights on our margins and efficiencies.

Sheldon Bruha, CFO

Sure, Phani. I think your main question relates to the increase in guidance from December to today. Part of this is that we were a bit conservative in December, as we had many plans in progress and were trying to get various initiatives implemented. Maxime mentioned several factors he reviewed when looking into the challenges we faced. The upgrade in our Everest ambition, which has increased from the $135 million we discussed in Q3 to over $250 million today, reflects all the efforts we made in Q4. We were cautious back in December, but as we analyzed our financial results for the full year and observed our strong start in January and February, we gained the confidence to raise our outlook and provide the updated figures you see today.

Maxime Lombardini, COO

If I may, I would like to rephrase your question regarding the viability of the company's cash generation. To supplement what Mauricio and Sheldon have said, I believe there are five solid reasons that will support cash generation in the medium to long term. First, the way the company operates is undergoing significant changes; we are simplifying many processes which will lead to cost savings, increased efficiency, and flexibility. The second reason is our revised cost structure, which will be different moving forward in several areas. Third, and perhaps somewhat overlooked, is network optimization. We have initiated substantial work with Atlas to simplify and enhance both the mobile and home networks, along with benefiting from network sharing in Colombia. This will greatly improve spectrum costs, efficiency, coverage, quality, and overall costs. Fourth, while it may be difficult to quantify, we are launching various commercial initiatives across all countries, and I have been particularly impressed with TIGO's commercial team in both B2C and B2B sectors. They are exceptional, and there are many opportunities available given our strong assets. Finally, the fifth reason is quite straightforward: deleveraging the company will enhance cash generation.

Mauricio Ramos, CEO

Hopefully, Phani, that gives you the strategic, financial, and operational view. And if that is convincing, then just sit tight as we deliver it.

Phani Kanumuri, Analyst

Sure. My second question is about the pricing environment in Guatemala. You mentioned it is becoming much more stable. Are you noticing competitors raising prices, or do you believe that your improved network is helping retain subscribers and enhancing your ability to increase prices? Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos, CEO

Maxime, do you want to take that one, and provide a fresh view for Guatemala?

Maxime Lombardini, COO

I would say optimistic and cautious. We are back to a situation which is quite nice. As probably Sheldon said before, the compares are not very easy because we had the World Cup effect one year ago, but we increased price. The KPIs are good, we have a good team there. The situation is, I think, after a trouble period, stabilized and now we are with government and everything going well in the country. So I would say reasonably optimistic on the future of Guatemala. And as you can imagine, we are spending a lot of time with the team there to be sure we have the right commercial positioning, the right network at the right place, and that all the investments that need to be made are made.

Mauricio Ramos, CEO

We raised prices in September of last year, which created a more rational marketplace. These price increases have been maintained, and we are implementing a few more at the beginning of this year because we believe the environment is now much more stable with the network and spectrum parity we have achieved. We are cautiously optimistic about Guatemala and can also now optimize the network as mentioned by Maxime. Guatemala is currently producing the cash flow we anticipated.

Phani Kanumuri, Analyst

Perfect. Thanks, everyone.

Operator, Operator

Thanks, Phani. All right, next we're going to go to Soomit Datta at New Street Research. Soomit?

Soomit Datta, Analyst

Yes. Hi, everybody. Thanks very much for letting me ask a question and congratulations on the performance. A couple of things please. Maybe just sort of pulling the conclusion together on equity free cash flow. It sounds like there's nothing particularly unusual in the 2024 guidance, and so should we think of the $550 million as a floor number going forward? Doesn't strike me that we should think anything different, but be interested in your interpretation. Wondered if there was anything unusual in working capital, if spectrum was going to be particularly low, if there was some sort of detail there that isn't obvious, but otherwise would be interested in your sense looking beyond 2024. That's the first question. Maybe leave it there and I'll return to a follow-up, please.

Mauricio Ramos, CEO

Soomit, your insightful inquiry about future guidance is causing quite a bit of anxiety here, but it's well done. Let me address this in two parts. We will provide guidance beyond 2024 at the appropriate time. Right now, our focus is on solidifying our plans for 2024, which we believe is the best course of action. However, to keep things a bit uncertain, I want to mention that our progress is sustainable and has growth potential because we've reached levels on spectrum that we consider significant. As I previously mentioned, 2022 and 2023 were years of substantial spectrum investment, and we've made notable advancements in both Colombia through renegotiations and in Guatemala via acquisitions. Our new joint venture in Colombia enables us to handle Colombian spectrum much more effectively. The changes to our cost structure, as noted by Maxime, have been crucial in establishing a long-term cost framework that enhances profitability across all our countries, all of which are generating positive equity free cash flow. Colombia has faced serious challenges over the past few years, but we are effectively navigating those, and it looks like things are improving. In Guatemala, we've maintained our market share, with stable pricing and spectrum parity, indicating that Colombia is on the right path. Moreover, Panama is performing exactly as we anticipated when we acquired those two businesses four years ago. While I can't provide specific numbers, we are confident about sustaining these positive equity free cash flow levels and achieving growth.

Soomit Datta, Analyst

Thank you for your insights. I'd like to shift focus to the top line. We've seen a positive impact from the B2B contract in Panama. I believe the underlying revenue growth is possibly around 2%. How do you see this trend moving forward? While I’m not asking for specific numbers, it appears that our core business may be flat or slightly declining, with mobile experiencing modest growth and B2B being variable. I'm interested in your thoughts on the overall revenue composition and the potential to increase our current growth rate in the future. Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos, CEO

I'll give it a big picture and Maxime can definitely and please add to that. We're still on?

Maxime Lombardini, COO

Yes, I think I am still on the screen, for me at least. So listen, postpaid on mobile is driving a lot of growth both in terms of additions and in terms of pricing. And you've seen that particularly in Colombia and Panama, but prepaid is also coming back, particularly in Guatemala. And we're also seeing improving trends in Bolivia and mobile. Home, a continuation of what we said in the last couple of quarters, we're being a lot more price disciplined and maintaining installation fees. It means lower volume as you've seen in Colombia and in Bolivia, but it means sustained ARPU and sustained revenue on home. And I think that's the right approach. And I think Maxime and Atlas and ourselves view eye-to-eye on that. And B2B as you've seen is delivering with both the digital and cloud products, but also new contracts that we are achieving, particularly in Panama. So, we're focused on the top line in that manner. And Maxime, I can't really see you on the screen, but if you have anything to add, just shout. I will just add some comments on the home business. The home business was somewhat stagnant, and we began working on a straightforward strategy to significantly enhance the capacities of the HFC networks. Fortunately, the quality of this HFC network in most areas is good, and with limited capital expenditure, we can substantially increase the bandwidth we deliver. Occasionally, we need to provide new CPE to customers, but we are addressing this in all regions where it's necessary. Along with revamping some offers, we are able to remain highly competitive in the market with very low capital intensity, delivering something that is drastically different from the past. Additionally, following the discipline that Mauricio mentioned helps us avoid investing in countries or situations with high churn rates, as we monitor the payback of subscribers. I would say we are reasonably optimistic about what we can achieve with the 14 million households we have reached through HFC. As for mobile, I have nothing to add to what Mauricio said; things are progressing well in most areas.

Soomit Datta, Analyst

Got it. Very clear. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

Thank you, Soomit. All right, next, and I think this will be our last question, is coming from Eduardo Rubi at UBS. Eduardo?

Eduardo Rubi, Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Two questions from my side. First, in terms of capital allocation, can you please compare how you evaluate allocation between debt repurchase and stock repurchase? And second, given the debt repurchase and current rate and FX environment, what figure should we expect for financial expenses going into 2024? Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos, CEO

The first one, Eduardo, I'll take, and then I'll hand it over to Sheldon for the second one in a lot more detail. Our capital allocation methodology, as you can imagine, and as we've said a number of times is basically highest return oriented with a view toward strategic investments as well, meaning stuff that has long-term return on capital. At this point in time, with our growing cash flow and our leverage coming down to the state of 2.5 times sooner than we had expected, we continue to view debt reduction as the highest return to our shareholders. So that's where our current focus is on and that's all I'll say on that because I think that is probably the most productive answer we can give you. And on the details on question number two, I'll hand it over to Sheldon.

Sheldon Bruha, CFO

Sure. I would just highlight, yes, we expect sort of finance charge improvements this year, particularly as we deploy sort of the cash flow generation that we've highlighted. In terms of debt reduction, I'm not going to give you specific guidance on it, but, I mean, absolutely, we're going to be looking for improvements there for the year and you can kind of do some math, so you can sort of forecast how that $550 million of equity free cash flow will come through the year and kind of the interest rate savings associated with it.

Eduardo Rubi, Analyst

That's okay. Very clear. Thank you very much.

Mauricio Ramos, CEO

Gracias, Eduardo.

Operator, Operator

Thanks, Eduardo. All right, so that wraps up the Q&A. Mauricio, back to you for any closing remarks.

Mauricio Ramos, CEO

Sure. Thanks to Sheldon, Michel, and Maxime for participating and for the entire TIGO team to make this come through. Thank you all for joining us today. As you can see, things are coming together after a lot of work by a lot of people, Colombia is under control and with an improved outlook, Guatemala, indeed, is under control and with an improved, yet cautiously optimistic outlook. Panama is turning out to be what we expected it would be when we bought the asset, and we've allocated capital to Guatemala and Panama, and we're happy we did because those are our two largest cash flow producers. Everest, which is now revamped, increased, broadened, is giving us a cost structure that we think will make our platform a profitable platform, and this is a wording that Maxime and I and the team speak about, a platform and making it profitable. We've now seen the worst of the spectrum renewals and the spectrum costs. So going forward, we're looking at more normalized spectrum spend as we anticipated and we're looking forward to Lati and our ability to monetize some of that. When you put it all together in a cost structure that we think can give us increased margins and sustainable profitability, all of that leads to 2024 being, as we've often said before, the year of our cash flow. And thank you.