Earnings Call Transcript - TRMK Q3 2020

Operator, Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Trustmark Corporation Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Please note this event is being recorded. I’d now like to turn the conference over to Joey Rein, Director of Investor Relations at Trustmark. Please go ahead.

Joey Rein, Director of Investor Relations

Good morning. I’d like to remind everyone that a copy of our third quarter earnings release as well as the slide presentation that will be discussed on our call this morning, is available on the Investor Relations section of our website at trustmark.com. During the course of our call this morning, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We’d like to caution you that these forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results due to a number of risks and uncertainties, which are outlined in our earnings release and our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. At this time, I’d like to introduce Jerry Host, Chairman and CEO of Trustmark.

Jerry Host, Chairman and CEO

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. With me this morning are Duane Dewey, President and Chief Operating Officer; Louis Greer, our CFO; Barry Harvey, our Chief Credit Officer; and Tom Owens, our Bank Treasurer. During the third quarter, we remained focused on ensuring the safety of our customers and associates, and supporting our local economy. We continued serving customers both remotely and through our branches, and we observed meaningful increases in the adoption of our mobile banking solutions. We remain engaged with our customers, actively discussing challenges and solutions, and providing concessions as appropriate. We continue to follow best practices for the health and safety of our associates. I’m extremely proud of our associates’ dedication to providing advice and solutions to meet our customer’s unique needs in this challenging environment. Moving to Page 3, let’s review some highlights from the quarter. Our results reflect the value of our diversified financial services businesses. Non-interest income increased 6% linked quarter and represented 41% of revenue in the third quarter. Our results reflect a lower provision and expense for credit losses due to improvement in the macroeconomic factors used to compute reserves under our CECL model. PPP loans totaled $970 million at September 30, net of deferred fees and costs of $25.7 million. Loans held for investment, excluding PPP loans, increased $188 million or 1.9% from the prior quarter and $624 million or 6.8% year-over-year. Our pre-tax, pre-provision income totaled $62.9 million, up 1.4% linked quarter and 26% year-over-year. Adjusted non-interest expense totaled $115 million in the third quarter, up 3.2% from the prior quarter. Our allowance for credit losses represented 1.24% of loans held for investment at September 30, 2020. We maintained strong capital levels with a common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 11.36% and a total risk-based capital ratio of 12.88%. The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share payable December 15 to shareholders of record on December 1. At this time, I’d like to ask Barry Harvey to provide some color on loan growth and credit quality. Barry?

Barry Harvey, Chief Credit Officer

Thank you, Jerry. Looking onto Page 4, you can see that loans held for investment, excluding PPP loans totaled $9.8 billion as of 9/30, that’s up $188 million or 1.9% linked quarter, and that puts us up $624 million or 6.8% year-over-year. The loan growth reflects continued funding on our commercial real estate construction loans. The loan portfolio remains well diversified based on both product type and geography. Looking onto Page 5, Trustmark’s CRE portfolio is 63% existing and 37% construction and development. Of that construction and development, 82% is construction. The bank owner occupied portfolio has a nice mix between both type and industrial. Looking onto Page 6, the bank’s commercial loan portfolio is well diversified as you can see across numerous industry segments. Typically, these loans are well secured, governed by formulaic borrowing bases, crafted to protect both the income statement and the balance sheet. Looking onto Page 7, we have minimum exposure as you can see to restaurants and energy. Trustmark has never been in the higher risk C&I lending business, and currently we just have the same one customer with about $11 million outstanding. The bank has always underwritten both hotels and retail in a very conservative manner. Currently, we have about 19% of the hotel book and 6% of the retail CRE book that’s under a payment concession plan. Moving on to Page 8, we conducted a review of the commercial borrowers that have been potentially impacted by COVID-19 during Q3. These were borrowers who received one or more payment concessions or borrowers in industries that had been significantly impacted by COVID-19. Approximately 80% of the borrowers receiving a concession, one or more concessions were reviewed. We’ve reviewed 96% of the hotel portfolio, 86% of the restaurant portfolio, 94% of the retail CRE book. This review resulted in coverage of $1.8 billion and resulted in downgrading $139 million or 7.7% of the portfolio reviewed to the criticized category during the quarter. Turning onto Page 9, our allowance for loan losses was relatively unchanged from the prior quarter. Our reserve calculation included an increase in both loan growth and the qualitative changes due to the COVID portfolio review we performed. It also reflected a decrease in our quantitative portion of our reserve based upon improvements in our economic forecast. As of September 30, the allowance for loan losses on loans held for investment totaled $122 million. Looking onto Page 10, we continue to post solid asset quality metrics. Our allowance for loan losses represented 1.24% of our held for investments, which resulted in almost a 600% coverage of non-performing loans, excluding those that are individually evaluated. We reported a net recovery for the quarter of about $1.1 million. Other real estate declined by 11% from the previous quarter and it declined 49% year-over-year. Turning onto Page 11, the bank actively participated, as you know, in the Paycheck Protection Program and has successfully assisted a significant number of businesses that have been negatively impacted by COVID-19 pandemic. Our PPP loans totaled $944 million as of September 30. This was net of the deferred loan fees and costs associated with the program of $26 million. We’re currently taking forgiveness applications from borrowers with loan amounts of $50,000 and above and have completed reviews on approximately $230 million or 24% of our PPP portfolio and have submitted those to the regulatory to the SBA for concurrence with the recommendation we’ve made. Jerry?

Jerry Host, Chairman and CEO

Great. Thank you, Barry. Now turning to the liability side of the balance sheet, I’d like to ask Tom if he would discuss our deposit base and the net interest margin. Tom?

Tom Owens, Bank Treasurer

Thank you, Jerry. So turning to Page 12, deposits totaled $13.2 billion at September 30, which was down $283 million from the prior quarter. However, average balances were up $277 million linked quarter and up $2.2 billion year-over-year, primarily reflecting additional customer liquidity associated with the PPP loan program and government stimulus payments. Linked quarter average balance growth was driven primarily by commercial balances, which were up 9%, while growth in consumer balances of 2%, essentially offset declines in public fund balances of 7%, which reflects normal seasonality of public funds. Our cost of interest-bearing deposits declined 6 basis points from the prior quarter to total 31 basis points, driven primarily by the continued downward repricing of the time deposits. We continue to maintain a favorable deposit mix as non-interest-bearing deposits rose to 30% of deposits at September 30, while 62% of deposits were in checking accounts. Our liquidity remains strong with a loan-to-deposit ratio of 82% at September 30 and reliance on wholesale funding of less than 3% of assets. Turning our attention to revenue on Page 13, net interest income FTE totaled $109.2 million in the third quarter, representing a linked quarter increase of $1.2 million. Interest and fees on PPP loans totaled $6.7 million, while $102.4 million was core. The core was a decline of $516,000 from the prior quarter as a reduction of $2 million in core interest income, more than offset a decline of $1.5 million in interest expense. The net interest margin in the third quarter of 3.03% declined by 9 basis points from the second quarter as core FET – the NIM ex-PPP loans, which declined to 3.05%. Other earning assets remained elevated during the quarter as commercial and consumer deposit balances continued to increase. And public fund balances remained elevated despite the normal seasonal decline during the quarter. We continue to anticipate a reversal of the significant increase in public fund balances which occurred during the second quarter. Although the full impact may not be felt until the first quarter of 2021. And now Duane will provide an update on noninterest income.

Duane Dewey, President and Chief Operating Officer

Thank you, Tom. As shown on Page 14, our fee businesses posted strong performance in the third quarter. Noninterest income totaled $73.7 million, up 6% linked quarter and 52.5% year-over-year. For the quarter, noninterest income represented 41% of Trustmark’s revenue demonstrating a solid diversified revenue stream. Our mortgage banking group continued to report solid results and we will discuss it in more detail in a moment. Service charges on deposit accounts increased by 1.2 million linked quarter as customers gradually returned to a more normal pre-pandemic activity level. Bank card and other fees were up 1.1 million from the prior quarter due to higher customer derivative revenue in interchange income. Insurance revenue was down seasonally, but up year-over-year, and wealth management revenue was in line with the prior quarter as increases in brokerage and investment services were offset by a decline in trust management fees. Turning to Page 15, our mortgage banking group had another outstanding quarter as loan production totaled $886 million, an increase of 3.8% from the prior quarter and 56.5% year-over-year. Retail production represented 70.2% of volumes or $622 million in the third quarter. Gain on sales of loans for the quarter totaled $34.5 million, which is an increase of $394,000 on a linked quarter basis. Overall mortgage banking revenue in the third quarter totaled $36.4 million, up $2.7 million from the prior quarter, another very strong quarter in the mortgage business. Louis will now cover noninterest expense and capital management.

Louis Greer, Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Duane. As you can see on Page 16, you see a detail on noninterest expense broken out between adjusted and total. Adjusted noninterest expenses, which excludes amortization of intangible ORE expense and credit loss for all balance sheet credit exposures totaled about $114.6 million in the third quarter, an increase of about $3.6 million or 3.2%. Salary and employee benefits were up $1.2 million due to increases in salaries, commissions related to the mortgage company and accruals for performance-based incentives. Services and fees increased related to continued investment in technology. Other adjusted noninterest expenses rose $1.5 million principally due to the loan expenses related to loan volumes and a non-cash charge for a realignment of branch offices of approximately $900,000. As we put branches up for sale, we showed those as assets for sale. We fair valued those, so that’s an adjustment for a fair value of $900,000 for two facilities that we’re trying to sell. Credit loss expense related to off-balance sheet and credit exposure was a negative $3 million, a decline of $9.2 million from the prior quarter, primarily reflecting the improvement of macroeconomic factors used to determine the necessary reserve for off-balance sheet exposure. This was partially offset by a $932,000 increase in ORE expenses which is due to write-downs during the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, we expect net adjusted expenses as previously defined to be approximately $113 million, depending on mortgage production for the fourth quarter of 2020. As Jerry mentioned earlier, we remain well-capitalized with total common Tier 1 ratio of 11.36%, total risk base of 12.88% at September 30. And as Jerry mentioned, the Board of Directors declared a $0.23 dividend payable to shareholders on December 15, 2020. Jerry?

Jerry Host, Chairman and CEO

Great, thank you, Louis. If you look – I think we’re putting up Slide 18, which is the announced succession plans. At first, I’d like to begin by congratulating Duane and Tom on their new upcoming roles. We are extremely excited about these two gentlemen moving into the CEO and CFO roles respectively over the next six months or so. You saw the announcement yesterday afternoon, and a variety of changes are taking place. I thought I’d take just a minute to go through them. The process for the succession of both the CEO role and the CFO role has been in place for over two years now. Our board has taken a very thoughtful and deliberate process in making this happen. They have used the counsel of outside experts both from a legal and from the perspective of leadership consultants to help make that decision. It has been a very thoughtful and deliberate process. I will tell you that over the next several months, Duane and I will be transitioning the remaining responsibilities of the CEO role to include risk and finance between now and the year-end. I plan to stay very active in the company, but in a different way. We have a very engaged Board of Directors, and I plan to be very involved in board governance, stay very involved in the strategic planning process, M&A, and investor relations, but Duane will be running the company, making no doubt about that. He is well prepared to do that. He has been here for over 17 years and has had a lot of prior experience in both large and smaller organizations over his banking career. So I’m really excited about Duane moving into this role and what he’s going to bring to this company. In addition, effective January 1, we’re going to make some changes around our administrative process. Granville Tate, many of you may not know, but some of you on this call may not have had the opportunity to listen to Granville talk about the company. He is currently our General Counsel and Chief Risk Officer. We plan on having Granville take on the additional responsibilities of Chief Administrative Officer, and that should help support Duane as it relates to a lot of the other activities involved in running the organization. Both of those changes will be effective January 1, 2021. In addition, on March 1, and this is so that we can get through the year end, get through the K, get through preparations of proxy and a lot of other things. Louis has provided us with his intent and his letter of intent to retire from the company as of March 1, 2021. Louis is remaining on to assist Tom Owens and work through that year-end process and all the financial reporting associated with that. So Louis will retire, then Tom Owens will step into the Chief Financial Officer role. In addition, Tom Chambers, who has served as our Controller, will become our Principal Accounting Officer for the corporation and will become our Chief Accounting Officer for the Bank and will assist Tom in the financial reporting issues of the company. The last change we want to communicate to you is that several months ago, Maria Sugay, we call her Ria, joined the company. She came in initially as Co-Treasurer, but with the transition plans playing out, Ria will be ready to move into the Treasurer role taking Tom’s place. So, a number of significant changes are occurring in the company, all well thought out, we believe, all with a very competent group of people that will bring a new dimension and perspective to the company. They’ve all got tremendous energy and are ready to go once we get out of this COVID funk, I guess this is what I might call it. We’re excited about it, as I said, and I’m looking forward to it. With that, let me suggest that, operator, we open it up for calls on either the work changes or the financials.

Operator, Operator

Our first question comes from Jennifer Demba with Truist Securities. Please proceed.

Jennifer Demba, Analyst

Thank you. Good morning.

Jerry Host, Chairman and CEO

Good morning, Jennifer.

Jennifer Demba, Analyst

Congratulations on everything that happened. I’m just wondering what the strategic focuses are going to be for Trustmark over the next 12 to 18 months assuming the pandemic does have an abrupt ending likely sometime in the next six months?

Jerry Host, Chairman and CEO

Jennifer, we have been in the process, as we prepared for these changes with Duane being very involved and engaged in our focal points given the changes here and knowing that there’s a change in how the customers want to bank with us, and how we must bank, the challenges of this low interest rate environment with the flat yield curve and the challenges it brings. I think you can see your financials reflect the fact that we have other businesses that are helping to provide fee income, but we do have a very much a focus going forward. I’d ask Duane to maybe talk about those areas of focus.

Duane Dewey, President and Chief Operating Officer

Yes, Jennifer, good morning. So as we start to focus on 2021 and beyond, we basically are categorizing it in five primary categories. Efficiency is being at the top of the list that is taking advantage of some of the technology advancements and projects we have underway on the efficiency side as well as really examining the branch system and how we deliver products and services to consumers across the franchise. Secondly, we’re focused on growth being both organic opportunities to grow things that we do currently and do them more extensively across the system, et cetera, but organically really focused on growth as well as opportunities that may present themselves as we come out of this from an M&A side or any other type of expansion opportunity. So efficiency, growth; we are constantly focused on innovation and how we process data, how we analyze data, how we interact with customers, et cetera. So innovation would be the third. We want to do this all in a way in which we’re very cognizant of risk and managing our risk, focus and making sure we maintain a proper balance between growth and risk management. And finally, we feel real strongly about the company’s culture and how we go about expanding and building on all the things I just mentioned while maintaining what we feel is the unique culture of our company that’s focused on our customers, communities, and our associates. And as we build our strategic plan, those are the five primary tenants that we are focusing on.

Jennifer Demba, Analyst

Great. Thank you very much. One more question. You talked about your hotel loans having reasonably high deferral rates. Any thought on loan sales in these more stressed categories if you could get a pretty favorable price?

Barry Harvey, Chief Credit Officer

Jennifer, this is Barry. I would say that’s not something that we’re considering at this time. I think we’re very pleased with how our portfolios are performing, including our hotel portfolio. As we’ve mentioned previously, about 40% of that exposure in that book are in coastal resort areas. They had a very nice summer this year, very much in line with what they experienced in 2019. The rest of the book we fully expect to cycle down as you would envision. But even the non-resort areas for our hotels, they’re mostly sought-after destinations. It’s not like there’s somebody who is going to be getting on a plane to get there and maybe reluctant to do so. So for that reason, they tend to be all beginning to do a little better as everybody adjusts to this new process that we’re operating in. Therefore, we do expect to see the portfolio cycle through and come back out the other side. At this point, we don’t have any interest in looking at potential sales, although, obviously, we get phone calls every day in that regard.

Jennifer Demba, Analyst

Thank you.

Jerry Host, Chairman and CEO

Thank you, Jennifer.

Operator, Operator

The next question is from Catherine Mealor with KBW. Please go ahead.

Catherine Mealor, Analyst

Thanks. Good morning.

Jerry Host, Chairman and CEO

Good morning, Catherine.

Catherine Mealor, Analyst

Great. Also congrats on all the management changes. Also, I wanted to start my questions on loan growth. Your loan growth has I think been really probably one of the best growth rates I’ve seen this quarter. Can you just talk a little bit about how much of that’s coming from new originations versus the construction funding? And what your outlook is for growth moving forward? Thanks.

Barry Harvey, Chief Credit Officer

Hey, Catherine, this is Barry.

Catherine Mealor, Analyst

Good morning, Barry.

Barry Harvey, Chief Credit Officer

Good morning. The great majority of our loan growth continues to be funding on our existing CRE projects, and we would expect that to continue through the remainder of this year. One thing that we have identified for 2021 that will impact us is we do have a larger number of our projects that we’ll fully fund that will be leaving us or slated to leave us during 2021 versus what we’re experiencing in 2020. As you know, every quarter we’re surveying all of our CRE professionals, getting a clear understanding of what they know about the projects, how long they’ll stay with us versus what the maturity date might say. Therefore, we’re constantly updating what we believe to be the forecast of loans that we know are going to leave us during a given period of time, and of course we do experience, like all banks, unanticipated payoffs where the developer doesn’t necessarily know that they’re in the market to sell something, but all of a sudden they get a really strong offer and they go ahead and accept that and move away from us. What we do see in 2021, A, is more payoffs coming from our existing stabilized CRE projects than we’re experiencing in 2020. So there is a little bit more of a headwind in 2021 than we have experienced in 2020.

Catherine Mealor, Analyst

Thank you. Great. That’s helpful. So is it fair to assume a slower growth rate for loans in 2021 versus it looks like maybe the ex-PPP you’ll be kind of fixed at 7% this year. So is it fair to assume a slower growth rate from that dynamic in 2021?

Barry Harvey, Chief Credit Officer

Yes. We’re continuing to evaluate what we think 2021 is going to look like. But purely from the fact that we do have a larger number of CRE payoffs coming our way in 2021 that we have a high level of certainty around versus 2020, we would expect to have slower growth in 2021 versus 2020.

Catherine Mealor, Analyst

Great. Got it. And then how does that impact the margin? And then some of these—would you look at some of these projects as having higher yields? Is there any kind of large impact to the margin that we should be aware of as those projects roll-off?

Tom Owens, Bank Treasurer

Catherine, this is Tom. No, I don’t think there’d be any material impact to the margin from the rate at which those new loans go on and fund up.

Barry Harvey, Chief Credit Officer

I would add to Tom’s comment, what we’ve experienced during the nine months of this year, especially the seven months since COVID became a factor. We have experienced much better pricing during this period of time. Of course, those loans are not funded at this point and won’t fund until 2021. So we have seen better fees, origination fees, and we have seen some materially better pricing, and we’ve been able to establish followers on a lot of the projects that we’ve approved during, pretty much from February to now. From that standpoint, I think we are encouraged that when those projects do begin funding in 2021, we will see a little better spread on those that we’ve booked during this seven-month period.

Catherine Mealor, Analyst

Okay. That’s great. And maybe that parlays into just the margin outlook question for you, Tom. You have a little bit of a description on what you expect to see from the public funds forward, but can you just give us some thoughts on how you think the margin outlook is?

Tom Owens, Bank Treasurer

Sure. I’m happy to. Catherine, this is Tom. So to start with, we need to bear in mind that it’s a complicated answer. I guess I’d start by using our guidance from last quarter as a reference point, which was essentially averaging over the next handful of quarters, linked quarter declines in earning asset yields of mid-single-digit basis points. Then on the deposit side, interest-bearing deposit costs linked quarter declined in the low single digits number of basis points, which gives you some run rates, some modest run rate compression. However, here’s where it gets complicated. When you think about the anticipated payoff, think about my prepared comments and the continuing elevated deposit balances, deposit balances have continued to grow. They have not yet begun to dry. Combining that with the anticipated reimbursement on the PPP loans, some of which we anticipate will happen in the fourth quarter more than what we anticipate happening in the first quarter. You’re going to see a significant drag to net interest margin, including core net interest margin from the increase in excess reserves. While you’ve got that sort of truly fundamental run rate of low to mid single-digit quarter-over-quarter compression in core net interest margin, you also have this what I’ll call exogenous factor suddenly of all the incremental additional liquidity coming from PPP loan reimbursements. What that’ll do cosmetically is drive down our reported net interest margin and core net interest margin. So I want to be very clear in terms of our guidance, and in my view there’s a difference between fundamentals in terms of ongoing compression between earning asset yield and funding costs. There’s a difference there between what I’ll just describe as possibly sticker shock that you would see in terms of the impact of that excess liquidity, which in round numbers could be about 20 basis points. Another way of saying that is once you get past the payoff of the PPP loans, all things equal that you already had in your model, you should expect to see a 20-basis point drop in our run rate in terms of net interest margin, but that is not driven by fundamentals; that’s driven by the excess liquidity. From a modeling perspective, we’re taking a pretty conservative approach, which is to say, we’re not currently modeling significant attrition of that liquidity, nor are we modeling significant redeployment of that liquidity. That’s obviously part of our ongoing analysis and strategic thinking as we think about 2021, what the effective duration of that liquidity might be and what the possible forms of redeployment might be.

Catherine Mealor, Analyst

Great. That’s very, very helpful. So basically you’re assuming that the PPP, as we see PPP forgiveness to liquidity actually continues to build as we move into next year, which is what’s driving that 20 bps.

Tom Owens, Bank Treasurer

Correct.

Catherine Mealor, Analyst

Great. That’s very helpful, Tom. Thank you so much.

Operator, Operator

The next question is from indiscernible with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst, Analyst

Hi, there. I appreciate you taking my question. So I was hoping to shift to the expense outlook. And I guess in the near-term, where do you think that will settle? And how should we think about your branch count and how that’ll end, say, 12 months out?

Louis Greer, Chief Financial Officer

This is Louis. I will tell you that I think our expenses—I gave you a view of the fourth quarter, where we think that those core adjusted expenses we call them out, some of the noise ORE and amortization is going to settle in about $113 million. I can tell you we’re in the process of our strategic planning and our budgeting process. Right now, I think we’ve planned to close at least six branches in 2021.

Unidentified Analyst, Analyst

Great.

Louis Greer, Chief Financial Officer

How? Is that the question I heard? Do you want to know how many branch count? I think we’re continuing to consolidate branches, and we’re looking at six additional branches in 2021.

Unidentified Analyst, Analyst

Understood, I appreciate it.

Louis Greer, Chief Financial Officer

Okay.

Unidentified Analyst, Analyst

And I was also hoping to ask about M&A. So I guess in relation to potential M&A, what are some of the characteristics that you would look for in a dance partner?

Jerry Host, Chairman and CEO

This is Jerry. I’ll answer that question. Well, typically, first of all, our geographic focus is the Southeastern United States. In that we would draw in Texas, even though technically they’re not in the Southeastern United States, they are currently part of our footprint. If opportunities arise, we’d gladly expand further into the Texas markets. Primarily the Southeast, we’re looking to find organizations that would complement what we already have so that we could be a more dominant player in the markets we’re in, as well as to find opportunities that allow us to consolidate some costs. So those are some of the characteristics about our M&A activity.

Unidentified Analyst, Analyst

All right. I really appreciate it. Thank you. That’s a good quarter.

Operator, Operator

The next question is from Graham Dick with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Graham Dick, Analyst

Hey guys. Good morning.

Jerry Host, Chairman and CEO

Good morning.

Graham Dick, Analyst

All right. So after completing the COVID impacted portfolio review this quarter, it looks like you guys allocated about $18 million to the reserve as a result. Would you guys expect that you’re about done building the reserve, barring any unforeseen developments in the economy and that future provisioning will mostly be driven by loan growth and any credit migration if it occurs?

Barry Harvey, Chief Credit Officer

Graham, this is Barry. We did grow the loan, the funded loan return by $1.8 million during the quarter. I think that’s going to all depend upon what happens going forward. The drivers this quarter were really two drivers: the macroeconomic forecast improved, which resulted in a release calculated above about $14.1 million on the quantitative side. On the qualitative side, based upon the COVID-19 population we identified and reviewed, we downgraded and added reserves too, resulting in about a $17.1 million provisioning. Those two pretty much offset each other from a qualitative, quantitative perspective during Q3. I think going forward, what you’re going to see that’s going to impact our preserving will be the macroeconomic forecast. If it continues to improve, it’s going to continue to generate a release. We’re going to continue to review this $1.8 million COVID-19 portfolio. We’ve identified credits that we may add over time as we come across some. So that will be an ongoing quarterly update as we get our new financial information from the borrowers and the guarantors. Those will be the biggest two factors determining whether we have additional reserving or a release of reserves.

Graham Dick, Analyst

Great. That’s really helpful. I guess moving on to mortgage. It’s obviously been really strong over the last few quarters. How are you guys thinking about how production might turn out in 2021? I know it’s super tough to pinpoint, but we’d just like some color on how you guys are approaching the New Year?

Duane Dewey, President and Chief Operating Officer

This is Duane. As you say, mortgage has been tremendously strong. It remains strong as we go into the fourth quarter. There is seasonality, of course, and we do expect lower production numbers in the fourth quarter. But still historically a very strong fourth quarter is our expectation. It could be off 20% or 25%, while still being very, very strong at a historical level. Moving into 2021 is still everybody’s best guess, I believe, as long as rates stay low, and there’s a good balance of purchase and refi-type business out in the marketplace. We are still looking at 2021 as being a strong mortgage year. There are a lot of dynamics in that business, as you know, primary, secondary spreads, and different things like that. But as things go, we’re still expecting solid production. A number of years ago, we began a shift to retail production, and our retail production staff out in the field is doing a tremendous job and generating new opportunities. That is a big factor in the improved results that we’ve seen this year and hope that continues into 2021.

Graham Dick, Analyst

Great. Thank you, guys. That’s all for me and congrats on the succession plans.

Duane Dewey, President and Chief Operating Officer

Thank you so much.

Operator, Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jerry Host for any closing remarks.

Jerry Host, Chairman and CEO

Thank you so much, operator, and I’d like to thank you all for joining us. I’m excited about our record quarterly financial results. They reflect the contribution of all areas of the company and show our strength. I think more importantly though, I’m very excited about how we got there, and that was through the dedication of our associates and their commitment to our customers, both retail and commercial. That really shows, and that’s what we believe helps differentiate us. Finally, again, congratulations to Duane, Tom, Granville, Tom Chambers, and Ria in these upcoming reassignments. I’m very excited about the future of this company and where we’re headed under their leadership. We appreciate all of your interests in Trustmark, and we look forward to being with you again in January in our fourth-quarter and year-end call. Thank you so much.

Operator, Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.