Earnings Call Transcript
TC ENERGY CORP (TRP)
Earnings Call Transcript - TRP Q2 2021
Operator, Conference Operator
Thank you for being here today. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the TC Energy Second Quarter 2021 Results Conference Call. Please note that all participants are in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be a chance for questions. I would now like to hand it over to David Moneta, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
David Moneta, Vice President, Investor Relations
Thanks very much, and good afternoon, everyone. I would like to welcome you to TC Energy’s 2021 second quarter conference call. Joining me today are Francois Poirier, President and Chief Executive Officer; Don Marchand, Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer; Tracy Robinson, President of our Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines and Coastal GasLink; Stan Chapman, President, U.S. and Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines; Bevin Wirzba, Executive Vice President Strategy and Corporate Development and President, Liquids Pipelines; Corey Hessen, President, Power and Storage; and Glenn Menuz, Vice President and Controller. Francois and Don will begin today with some opening comments on our financial results and certain other company developments. A copy of the slide presentation that will accompany their remarks is available on our website. It can be found in the Investors section under Events and Presentations. Following their remarks, we will take questions from the investment community. If you are a member of the media, please contact Jaimie Harding after this call. In order to provide everyone from the investment community with an equal opportunity to participate, we ask that you limit yourself to two questions. If you have additional questions, please re-enter the queue. Before Francois begins, I’d like to remind you that our remarks today will include forward-looking statements that are subject to important risks and uncertainties. For more information on these risks and uncertainties, please see the reports filed by TC Energy with Canadian Securities Regulators and with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. And finally, during this presentation, we’ll refer to measures such as comparable earnings, comparable earnings per share, comparable EBITDA, and comparable funds generated from operations. These and certain other measures are considered to be non-GAAP measures. As a result, they may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. These measures are used to provide additional information on TC Energy’s operating performance, liquidity, and its ability to generate funds to finance its operations. With that, I will turn the call over to Francois.
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. I know it's a busy morning with lots of companies reporting. So, thank you very much to all of you for joining us today. As outlined in our second quarter report to shareholders, our diversified portfolio of high-quality, long-life energy infrastructure assets continues to meet North America's growing demand for energy. Utilization levels across our network remained strong during this first half of 2021, despite energy market volatility, weather events, and the ongoing impacts of COVID-19. Of note, our U.S. natural gas pipeline network moved an average of 26 Bcf per day, an increase of 5% over the same period in 2020, while field receipts on NGTL were 12.2 Bcf per day. In our Power and Storage business, Bruce Power continued to produce solid operating results, while our Alberta cogens benefited from increased output due to increased availability and the return to service of our MacKay River facility. Once again, this highlights the essential role our infrastructure plays in the well-being of people across the continent and the functioning of the North American economy. We take this responsibility seriously, and as always, we conducted our business in a safe and reliable manner. Safety is one of our core values and is embedded in the culture of our organization. During the first half of the year, we invested $765 million in maintenance capital as part of our ongoing commitment to pipeline integrity. Our focus on operational excellence and the strong demand for our services is also reflected in our financial performance. Through the first six months of the year, comparable EBITDA, comparable earnings per share and comparable funds generated from operations all exceeded last year's record results. This is a very good outcome considered the significant decline in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the Canadian dollar, which negatively impacts our reported EBITDA, as well as the loss of one-time Sur de Texas fees in the first quarter of 2020 and the loss of capitalized interest during construction of KXL. Looking forward, we expect the solid operating and financial performance of our existing assets to continue. Contributing to our performance is Colombia Gas, which recently notified the FERC that it has reached a settlement-in-principle with its customers addressing all remaining issues related to the inspection for the rate case. We're very pleased that we were able to reach an agreement. While more details will be available once the settlement is filed, we expect 2021 revenue on the system to be generally consistent with the estimates recorded to date. Turning to our capital program, we remain focused on advancing our now $21 billion of secured growth projects. They're expected to enter service by 2025. As is our custom, they are all underpinned by cost-of-service regulation or long-term contracts, which gives us visibility to their earnings and cash flow they will generate. A substantial portion of this growth portfolio is linked to our irreplaceable natural gas pipeline network, which now includes the VR project on our Columbia Gas system. This US$700 million project, referenced earlier today in our quarterly report, includes the installation of electric compression that will meet growing demand and reduce emissions. This is another great example of our vast network playing an important role in the transition to a lower carbon world by delivering natural gas that will be used to displace coal-fired power and provide a backstop to the intermittency of renewables. A few words on Coastal GasLink. Following the macro events of the past 16 months, including the public health order that limited our project workforce at the beginning of 2021, construction activities have resumed, and we are making good progress with close to 50% of the project completed. However, as we've shared previously, costs are expected to increase, which has resulted in a dispute with LNG Canada. While commercial discussions are ongoing, and we remain committed to successfully completing the project, we are nearing a critical stage that requires resolution of the outstanding issues. Looking beyond our secured capital program, over the mid to longer term, we expect numerous other opportunities to come to fruition as the world both consumes more energy and transitions to a lower carbon energy future. We have significant additional initiatives that are aligned with our strategy, organizational capabilities, risk preferences, and return requirements in various stages of development. These include system expansions, extensions, and modernization programs across our North American natural gas pipeline footprint, electrification opportunities throughout our network, the refurbishment of another five reactors at Bruce Power, two pump storage projects in Alberta and Ontario, as well as the Alberta carbon grid. Our goal is to build on our long history of disciplined growth while being agnostic to the form of energy that will ultimately lead to a low carbon energy future. Whether it's renewables and firming resources needed to manage their intermittency, electrifying our fleet, or other emerging technologies, our existing asset base, technical capabilities, innovative approach, and financial strength all mean that we are well positioned to prosper, irrespective of the pace or direction energy transition takes. As mentioned before, ultimately, our goal is to sanction $5 billion to $6 billion annually to deliver on our long-term growth plans, including $1.5 billion to $2 billion per year of maintenance capital across our extensive network. Based on the project sanction to-date in 2021 and various other initiatives in late stages of development, we expect to achieve our goal this year. More specifically, in addition to the Columbia's VR project, and ongoing maintenance on our regulated businesses, we expect a continuation of Columbia Gas’s modernization program as well as the Bruce Power unit three MCR project, which is under consideration to be added to our backlog by the end of this year. Through requests for information, we are identifying potential opportunities in wind, solar, and energy storage projects that could generate 1000 megawatts of zero carbon energy to meet the electricity needs for a portion of our U.S. pipeline assets. This is an important step in advancing our plans to leverage the power and storage business as a platform for sustainable future growth, while lowering emissions across our North American footprint. Longer term, the opportunity set is also encouraging. We are engaging with various stakeholders in Ontario to advance the Meaford pump storage opportunity. The project is designed to store emission-free electricity and provide backstop to the intermittency associated with the energy provided by renewables. Earlier this week, we reached an agreement with the Department of National Defense that subject to conditions and regulatory approval allows for the development of the multibillion-dollar 1000 megawatt clean energy storage project on federal lands. Moving forward, we will continue to consult with the Saugeen Ojibway Nation and other indigenous rights holders and communities. We will engage with local communities and other interested stakeholders to assess the potential impacts and economic benefits of the project. We recently announced the partnership with Pembina to jointly develop the Alberta carbon grid, a carbon transportation and sequestration system. When fully constructed, it would be capable of transporting more than 20 million tonnes of CO2 annually, providing Alberta-based industries with an ability to manage their emissions and contribute to a lower carbon economy. In short, I expect we will be opportunity-rich and have to allocate capital to those projects that are best aligned with our capabilities, risk preferences, and return requirements. Based on the continued strong performance of our base business and our organic growth plans, we expect to continue to grow our dividend at an average annual rate of 5% to 7%. As always, the growth in dividends is expected to be supported by sustainable growth in earnings and cash flow per share and strong coverage ratios. I am confident that the future opportunity set combined with our capabilities will continue to deliver superior risk-adjusted total shareholder returns well into the future. I'll now turn the call over to Don, who will provide more details on our second quarter financial results.
Don Marchand, CFO
Thanks, Francois. And good morning, everyone. As outlined in our results issued earlier today, net income attributable to common shares was $982 million or $1 per share in the second quarter of 2021 compared to $1.3 billion or $1.36 per share for the same period in 2020. Second quarter results included a combined $18 million of after-tax charges associated with Keystone XL preservation and other costs along with a small net revision to the asset impairment taken in the first quarter, as well as a $13 million after-tax recovery associated with the Ontario gas-fired power plants sold in 2020. The corresponding period in 2020 also included certain specific items, as outlined on the slide and discussed further in our second quarter 2021 report. These specific items, as well as unrealized gains and losses from changes in risk management activities, are excluded from comparable earnings. Comparable earnings for the second quarter were $1 billion or $1.07 per common share compared to $863 million or $0.92 per common share in 2020. Turning to our business segment results, in the second quarter, comparable EBITDA from our five operating segments of $2.2 billion was similar to 2020, despite strong currency translation headwinds. Canadian Gas pipelines comparable EBITDA of $684 million was $63 million higher than the second quarter 2020, primarily on account of increased rate base earnings as well as higher flow-through depreciation and income taxes on the NGTL system. Coastal GasLink development fee revenue, which commenced in mid-second quarter 2020, and a modest net increase in the Canadian mainline. The GTL system's net income rose $16 million year-over-year, mainly due to a higher average investment base resulting from continued system expansions which reflects an ROE of 10.1% on 40% deemed common equity. Net income for the Canadian Mainline increased $14 million, largely due to higher incentive earnings and the elimination of a $20 million after-tax annual TC Energy contribution included in the previous NED 2014 decision. The U.S. Gas pipelines comparably that U.S. $717 million in the second quarter was higher by U.S. $122 million compared to 2020. This was driven by a net increase in earnings from Columbia Gas following our application for higher transportation rates effective February 1, 2021, subject to refund upon completion of the rate proceeding, along with greater capitalized pipeline integrity costs in 2021 compared to 2020, partially offset by higher property taxes. In addition, earnings across our U.S. Gas pipelines were generally higher following the cold weather events in the first quarter 2021, which impacted many of the U.S. markets we serve. Mexico gas pipelines comparable EBITDA of U.S. $134 million rose U.S. $4 million versus last year, primarily as a result of increased earnings on Guadalajara, following the implementation of a flow reversal completed in 2020. Liquids Pipelines comparable EBITDA declined by $66 million to $366 million in the second quarter, due to lower volumes on Keystone, partially offset by increased contributions from liquids marketing activities, mainly attributable to higher margins and volumes. Power and storage comparable EBITDA in the second quarter rose by $22 million, primarily due to increased Bruce Power results, driven by higher volumes resulting from fewer outage days and a higher contract price, partially offset by increased operating expenses. Natural gas storage and other also contributed to the increase as a result of our November 2020 acquisition of the remaining 50% ownership interest in TC turbines and higher realized Alberta natural gas storage spreads. For all our businesses with U.S. dollar-denominated income, including U.S. and Mexico gas pipelines and parts of liquids pipelines, EBITDA was translated into Canadian dollars using an average exchange rate of $1.23 in the second quarter 2021, compared to $1.39 for the same period in 2020. Overall, U.S. dollar-denominated comparable EBITDA increased by U.S. $105 million. The year-over-year weakening of the currency was a considerable drag on 2021 Canadian dollar reported EBITDA. That said, the corresponding impact on comparable earnings was not significant due to offsetting natural and economic hedges. As a result, our U.S. dollar-denominated revenue streams are in part naturally hedged by U.S. dollar-denominated amounts below comparable EBITDA within depreciation and amortization, interest expense, and other income statement line items. We then actively managed the residual exposure on a rolling two-year forward basis with realized gains and losses on this program reflected in comparable interest income and other. Now turning to the other income statement items, depreciation and amortization of $633 million was in line with the second quarter 2020. Interest expense of $577 million was $16 million higher year-over-year, largely due to the net effect of lower capitalized interest due to its acquisition for the Keystone XL pipeline project. The change to equity accounting for Coastal GasLink investment in the second quarter 2020, long-term debt issuances net of maturities, lower interest rates on reduced levels of short-term borrowings, and the foreign exchange impact from a weaker U.S. dollar on translation of U.S. dollar-denominated interest. AFUDC decreased by $17 million compared to the same period in 2020, principally due to the suspension of recording it on Villa de Reyes effective January 1 of this year, partially offset by increased capital expenditures on ANR and a higher balance of NGTL system expansion projects under construction. Comparable interest income and other rose $151 million in the second quarter, mainly due to realized gains in 2021 compared to realized losses in 2020 on derivatives used to manage our net exposure to foreign exchange rate movements on U.S. dollar-denominated income. Income tax expense included in comparable earnings was $175 million in the second quarter 2021, compared to $125 million for the same period last year, with the $50 million increase mainly due to higher flow-through income taxes on Canadian rate regulated pipelines and increased earnings, partially offset by higher foreign income tax rate differentials. Excluding Canadian rate regulated pipelines where income taxes are a flow-through item and that's quite variable along with equity AFUDC income in U.S. natural gas pipelines, we continue to expect our 2021 full-year effective tax rate to be in the mid-to-high teens. Comparable net income attributable to non-controlling interest of $6 million decreased by $57 million relative to the same period last year, primarily as a result of the March 3rd, 2021, buyout of units of TC PipeLines LP. Finally, preferred share dividends of $32 million were $8 million lower than in the second quarter 2020, mainly due to the redemption of Series 13 preferred shares on May 31st 2021. During the second quarter, comparable funds generated from operations totaled $1.8 billion, and we invested $1.4 billion in our capital program. As noted, at the end of May, we redeemed all issued and outstanding Series 13 preferred shares using proceeds from our junior subordinated debt offering completed in March 2021. In June, we completed a three-tranche offering of MTNs in Canada comprised of $750 million, three-year floating rate notes, $500 million in ten-year notes at 2.97%, and $250 million of 26-year notes at 4.33%. Also, in June, the U.S. $840 million outstanding on the Keystone XL project level credit facility consolidated on our balance sheet was fully repaid by the Government of Alberta under the terms of their guarantee, and the facility terminated. We also repurchased their ownership interest in KXL and issued securities entitling the government to certain project liquidation proceeds as realized. Collectively, this resulted in an after-tax net recovery of approximately $1.1 billion being recognized, which was credited directly to equity and serves to partially offset the $2.2 billion after-tax impairment charge recorded in the first quarter. During the 2021 through 2023, our total requirements over the three years are projected to be approximately $29.5 billion, reflecting dividends of $11 billion, capital expenditures including maintenance capital of $16 billion, $2 billion attributed to the TC PipeLines LP acquisition completed in March, and the Series 13 preferred share redemption to $500 million in May. The second column highlights expected internally generated cash flow of $21 billion, $2 billion of common shares issued pursuant to the Pipe LP buy-in, $1.5 billion of MTNs issued in June, and the $500 million junior subordinated notes offering completed in March. That leaves a residual need of approximately $4.5 billion. We expect to fund that through a combination of incremental debt, commercial paper in Keystone XL project recoveries. The program excludes the normal course refinancing and scheduled debt maturities and is consistent with our goal of maintaining debt to EBITDA in the high-4s and FFO to debt of 15%. In closing, our solid operational and financial results once again highlight our resilient, diversified low-risk portfolio, the criticality of our irreplaceable infrastructure, as well as the contribution of new high-quality assets from our ongoing capital program. With our enduring business model, financial strength, organizational capabilities, and unparalleled footprint, we are poised to tap a vast opportunity set that is dramatically aligned with both today's needs and the world shifting energy mix, as well as being consistent with our long-standing risk preferences and return requirements. This is expected to perpetuate our multi-decade track record of prudent value creation and support annual dividend growth of 5% to 7% into the future.
David Moneta, Vice President, Investor Relations
Thanks, Don. Just a reminder, before I turn it over to the conference coordinator for questions from the investment community. We ask that you limit yourself to two questions. If you have additional questions, please reenter the queue. With that, I'll turn it over to the conference coordinator.
Operator, Conference Operator
Thank you. We will now start the question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from Robert Kwan of RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed.
Robert Kwan, Analyst
Good morning. My first question relates to the VR project. But more so taking a step back, you've got US$700 million for this and this is just Colombia. Have you looked at how big these types of opportunities can be across your entire system? And what was the trigger for this going forward? Was it really more so about the capacity expansion? Are you seeing from your shippers a real demand to electrify the system, so they can reduce their scope emissions?
Stan Chapman, President, U.S. and Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines
Hey, Robert, this is Stan. I could take a stab at that. I would say it's really multi-factors. There is incremental volumes and an incremental need in this particular project. At the same point in time, focusing on our emissions and reducing our emissions while we're providing additional throughput to our customers is something that’s important to us. We think that we can do that not only by installing the electric compression across our system but also doing it in conjunction with Corey’s team and making sure that he's providing the power and most likely green power at the end of the day. In terms of how big this could be going forward, note that it is part of our overall drive to reduce our emissions footprint across the country and the continent. We have the 13 pipelines that we own or operate here in the U.S. My expectation is that in any given year, on any given pipeline, we can have one or two of these projects, and that's what we're going to challenge ourselves to be successful in reducing emissions going forward.
Robert Kwan, Analyst
Okay, so just when you say one or two of these projects, you're talking about an announcement or something in that US$700 million range?
Stan Chapman, President, U.S. and Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines
Well, again the dollar amount is going to fluctuate depending upon the specifics of the case. But I think the expectation would be one or two projects per year over the next several years. Now, what pipeline that's on is going to be determinative of many things, including where the additional loans are going to come from, and where we have the best opportunity to add electric compression with respect to proximity to poles and wires and the like.
Robert Kwan, Analyst
Okay. That's great. Just on the second question here. For the Coastal GasLink disputes, can you talk a little bit more, elaborate on the nature and the scope and maybe more importantly to you, is there anything in the sell-down agreement, where there could be a clawback of the proceeds you've received?
Tracy Robinson, President, Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines and Coastal GasLink
Good morning. This is Tracy here. I'll take that one. There’s likely to be a number of questions on the disputes on the status of the project and what the potential impact may be. Let me say this: We are in a disagreement with LNG Canada over the alignment of costs and schedule. We've been in discussions for some time now, and those discussions do continue. They are confidential. We do have our equity partners involved as they are all confidential; we're unable to share any details at this time. I can say that they're progressing. If we're not able to reach a resolution in the near term, then there will be some implications for our construction. It's an important project, Coastal GasLink. We are in full execution now, with more than 5,000 people working in the corridor. Execution is going well, and we have a strong safety record. We want to continue to discuss them construction, and we do remain hopeful that we'll have a fair and reasonable outcome that we will be able to share a few more of the details that you mentioned.
Robert Kwan, Analyst
Okay, that's great. That's all I have. And Don, hopefully, you're happy to hear this last one out of the way. I let you off easy.
Don Marchand, CFO
Robert, thanks. Now this is the highlight of the week again here. So thanks, Robert.
Operator, Conference Operator
Our next question comes from Linda Ezergailis of TD Securities. Please go ahead.
Linda Ezergailis, Analyst
Thank you. Before I ask my question, I want to wish Don all the best in his retirement and a big congratulations for a very successful career.
Don Marchand, CFO
Thanks, Linda.
Linda Ezergailis, Analyst
So the Ontario pump storage project: Some developments recently on that front. Can you talk a little bit about the steps and timeline and what sort of commercial attributes and ownership you would be looking for as well as how it might be financed?
Corey Hessen, President, Power and Storage
Hi, Linda. This is Corey Hessen. A couple of things. Number one, we're very, very pleased that we were able to reach an agreement recently with the DND on the first step to gaining site access. But we have some technical steps that will follow here in the coming months to meet their needs to ensure that the site remains operational for the DND. In parallel with that happening, we will be working with our counterparties to secure the commercial underpinnings for this particular facility. So we're really running a two-pronged approach for the next coming months as we continue the development of this project. As we go forward, we will be working collaboratively with our partners, local stakeholders, and Bison, who are all active participants in this process. Regarding the capital structure, it's a little early days for us to have thought through that entirely. We have to understand more clearly what the commercial underpinnings will be. Once we understand that more clearly, we'll be able to work diligently with our external partners to figure out a structure that works for everyone involved.
Don Marchand, CFO
Yes, Linda, it's Don. I'll just supplement Corey's remarks on the financing. Again, early days but we can see First Nation ownership here. This project, whether it's financed at the project level or up above here, would lend itself to green bond financing. There were significant tax benefits introduced in the most recent Canadian federal budget, so that all has to be taken into account as we figure out where and how to finance this.
Linda Ezergailis, Analyst
Thank you. As a follow-on question, given all the opportunities you're facing in terms of energy transition and beyond considering your earnings and cash flow growth, which should support the 5% to 7% dividend growth, I'm just wondering how other considerations might factor into the cadence of dividend growth potentially shifting over time including if there's tax changes, investor preferences might change, et cetera?
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Linda, I'll take that one. You know, our goal, as always, as we think about our value proposition is to deliver a moderately growing and stable dividend underpinned by a commensurate growth in earnings and cash flow. We've targeted a payout ratio of 80% to 85% of earnings and 40% to 45% of cash flow per share. That in turn delivers a stable balance sheet and allows us to have the dry powder to be opportunistic, to the extent any acquisitions become available. I don't see any changes in that value proposition going forward. As you perhaps intimated, in my prepared remarks, we are seeing an acceleration in the opportunity set. You've seen the fruit of that here in our announcement with the VR project. You can expect additional projects to be sanctioned, as per my comments throughout the balance of the year. To the extent the opportunities continue to grow – as we expect that they will over time – perhaps we'll consider opportunities to reevaluate capital allocation, but for the time being, it's business as usual here and the tried and true capital allocation framework that you're accustomed to seeing from us.
Linda Ezergailis, Analyst
Thank you.
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Thanks, Linda.
Operator, Conference Operator
Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Jeremy Tonet, Analyst
Hi, good morning.
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Good morning, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet, Analyst
And Don, you will be missed. I hope Joel has the same good sense of humor as you did.
Don Marchand, CFO
Thanks, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet, Analyst
But I just wanted to start off with the Alberta carbon grid and wondering, it's obviously very early days here. But what you might be able to say as far as stakeholder reaction when you put out that announcement, what type of conversations you're having, and what do you think is possible?
Bevin Wirzba, Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate Development and President, Liquids Pipelines
Hi, Jeremy, it's Bevin here. We've had – we're very pleased with the customer engagement that we've had to date and the industry feedback. Obviously, without being able to clarify exactly what the carbon hub will look like or will evolve to, there are a lot of proponents in the industry advancing their own pursuit of energy transition. Right now, we're working in partnership with all our customers and with industry to advance. Since our initial announcement of the carbon grid, we've been progressing our engineering and scoping work as well as filing our applications under the government of Alberta sequestration process. The project itself is a great example of taking our existing asset base and seeing how it can be utilized or repurposed as we pursue energy transition opportunities in the portfolio.
Jeremy Tonet, Analyst
Got it. That's helpful there. And just want to maybe touch on capital allocation a little bit more talking about new opportunities kind of materializing here. And just wondering how you think about the payout ratio within the context of these new opportunities, and I guess, the need for equity overall. Do you feel that the stock is getting credit for kind of the 5% to 7% dividend growth that you're talking about here? Would it at any point make sense to kind of ratchet down the payout ratio or that growth rate, given kind of these new opportunities, as you said? Just trying to put all these things together here.
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Yes. I appreciate that question. Again, as I mentioned earlier, with respect to Linda's question, we have a tried and true capital allocation model that's been successful for many decades. It has allowed us to deliver a 13% annual total shareholder return over that period of time. Stability and predictability in terms of our approach to capital allocation is important. If we see an opportunity to earn an outsized return and create more value for our shareholders by retaining additional cash flow, it's something that we would give consideration to. We think the balance of 40% of our cash flow going back to our shareholders in the form of a dividend and 60% being reinvested in the business is a reasonable balance. Having said that, to the extent opportunities arise for us to invest beyond our free cash flow, we hold share count very jealously but to the extent those opportunities occur, we would consider issuing equity or perhaps retaining a greater portion of our cash flow. But as I said, the model has served us well over the last couple of decades, and our expectation is that we will continue along this line.
Don Marchand, CFO
I'll just clarify, a 40% of cash flow, not earnings...
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Pardon me.
Jeremy Tonet, Analyst
That's helpful. I'll leave it there. Thank you.
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Thanks, Jeremy.
Operator, Conference Operator
Our next question comes from Ben Pham of BMO. Please go ahead.
Ben Pham, Analyst
Hi. Thanks. Good morning. I had a question on the renewable energy RFI. As you go through evaluation, move to an RFP, you give a little share, maybe any sort of qualitative thoughts there, just seems from the interest levels, is there anything that’s surprising so far?
Corey Hessen, President, Power and Storage
Hi, Ben. This is Corey. To give you some quantitative feedback, I think which is pretty interesting and shows the level and the size of the opportunity that's available to us at TC Energy as part of the energy transition. As you know, we had sort of two components to the RFI. One was a wind component and one is a solar plus storage component, totaling about one with a lot of requests. We had 54 individual projects, totaling 16.6 gigawatts of bids submitted for wind, which is about 27 times the request. In the solar and storage side, we had 66 individual projects, totaling about 12.4 gigawatts of bids submitted, which is about 40 times the amount of demand that we went to the market with. We are currently at a phase where we are down selecting those projects and entering definitive negotiations with the projects that best meet the criteria for our customers, stakeholders, and shareholders. We expect in the coming months, we will be able to announce those projects that we have chosen to move forward with.
Ben Pham, Analyst
That's incredible. Okay. Thanks for the update on that. And then on maybe on your liquids segments, a comment on your thoughts on the short-term outlook on the volumes and maybe just important, your longer-term outlook relative to some of that – maybe some of the guidance you highlighted in the past in the liquid segment.
Bevin Wirzba, Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate Development and President, Liquids Pipelines
Ben, thank you. It's Bevin here. Our pipeline ex-Hardesty down to the Gulf Coast has been at capacity, leaving the supply basin in here in Western Canada. As we pick up volumes in Cushing to take to the Gulf Coast or into the Midwest, we've seen a continued ARB compression between the Midwest and Cushing in the Gulf Coast as we saw supply volumes increase out of the Permian, and really a compression in the export markets. We see that outlook persisting here over the balance of the back half of this year and likely into early next year. We have seen producers increase supply with the run-up of commodity prices in various basins. However, our liquid segment is really driven by the ARBs between ex-Hardesty and ex-Cushing into our refining markets.
Ben Pham, Analyst
Okay, great. Thanks Bevin. Thanks, guys.
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Thanks Ben.
Operator, Conference Operator
Our next question comes from Robert Catellier of CIBC World Markets. Please go ahead.
Robert Catellier, Analyst
Hi, thank you. I just wanted to follow-up a little bit on Coastal GasLink, understanding this limitations wait and see. Currently an important project for the industry, and I'm curious as to when you believe you have to have this dispute resolved in order to avoid having a work suspension? Following on that thought, it sounds like you're still using commercial means to resolve the dispute, but is the idea of mediation or arbitration a possibility here?
Tracy Robinson, President, Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines and Coastal GasLink
Thanks, Robert. Happy to take that question. We are, as you say, in discussions – in commercial discussions, and right now, we're focused on that as the mechanism to resolve the disagreement between us. There are a number of details going across the table on that, but it is the subject of some confidential dialogue with our customer. Our main focus now – we're focusing really on two things. One is resolving disagreement on cost and schedule as quickly as possible. The other is ensuring that the pipeline is constructed in a safe and cost-effective manner and meets the timeline that aligns with the current schedule for the facility in Kitimat. We're pretty focused on that and we remain hopeful that we will get a reasonable and fair outcome here in the near term.
Robert Catellier, Analyst
Okay. Switching then to Bruce, the same type of question, if you could provide a little bit of color on the return to service for Unit 3. Understand that part of that's probably not in your control, but do you have a rough estimate of the timeline as to when that can be resolved?
Corey Hessen, President, Power and Storage
Hey, Robert, it's Corey. We are in process responding to the July 26 order from the CNSC. We will be following the process and the procedures as laid out by the CNSC. Once we receive the first bit of feedback from the CNSC regarding our response, we'll be able to provide more color. But what I would say is the plants are operating safely, reliably, and effectively. Unit three is offline right now, and we are in process following the CNSC's order. We expect a positive outcome.
Robert Catellier, Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
Corey Hessen, President, Power and Storage
Thanks, Rob.
Operator, Conference Operator
Our next question comes from Rob Hope of Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Rob Hope, Analyst
Good morning, everyone. My first question on the Columbia settlements, not sure how much you can kind of talk here, but can you just maybe highlight some of the key issues that you receive some resolution on as you expect? And then, can you remind us how much of a revenue outlet do you have in bookings so far this year?
Stan Chapman, President, U.S. and Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines
Yes, Rob, this is Stan. I can tell you what I can, which is obviously you heard that we notified FERC yesterday of our plans to suspend the procedural schedule, which is the way we tell them that we have a settlement in principle with our customers. The actual details there really can't get into until we file the settlement that will be sometime most likely in September and October. But all issues that were addressed in the settlement or in the rate case are addressed in the settlement, including things like rate levels and the continuation of our modernization program. Again, I'll tell you that the settlement is in line with the expectations we had regarding revenue and earnings, which are very consistent with the estimates we recorded and reported to date. But again, I can't give you hard numbers just yet.
Rob Hope, Analyst
I appreciate that and look forward to some additional details in September. Okay, pivoting over to the RFI for the renewable projects, how you're looking at kind of your cost of capital and the attractiveness of projects. When you take a look at the vast amount of projects that came in, how much or what percentage of that could we see TC Energy invest capital into rather than just contract for energy?
Corey Hessen, President, Power and Storage
Hi, Rob, it's Corey. I'll take an opening shot at this, and if Don or Francois want to comment after me, they can as well. The way we're thinking about it is each individual project and each individual jurisdiction is being measured on its own merits. So, as we think about jurisdictions and how the ISO operates in each of those jurisdictions, it's going to have a bearing on our view of how we can participate in that market. That being said, we see ourselves as the long-term owner and operator of assets. We've been doing it for a very long time, and we take great pride in being an industry-leading operator. So I think that we will have a blend of both. It's a little premature until we evaluate each individual project on its merits to sort of decide what that mix might be.
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Perhaps the only point I’ll add to that, Corey, is that obviously we have an obligation to deliver the lowest cost acquisition of power as part of our agreement with our shippers, and we see an opportunity here to lower those costs. That is an opportunity for us to lower our variable costs for our customers. So we’re very, very excited about that.
Rob Hope, Analyst
Excellent. Appreciate the color. And Don, all the best; it’s been fun over the years.
Don Marchand, CFO
It has, Rob. Thanks very much.
Operator, Conference Operator
Our next question comes from Andrew Kuske of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Andrew Kuske, Analyst
Thanks. Good morning. Obviously, the topic of clean fuels is a big one, and it's pretty broad-based. Just curious on your thought process: How does TC Energy fit into the investment theme? Across your value chain, is it across the entire value chain of your assets really from wellhead or mine case in some cases with customers, just syndicating your burner tip, or do you view it in a more targeted fashion?
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
I'll provide some high-level comments. On the question of renewable natural gas, I'll ask Stan afterwards to provide a couple of thematic points. The short answer is it's across our entire asset base. What we've learned as we look at carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, renewable natural gas—a fundamental aspect of being a participant in those markets as they develop is the ability to store and transport a molecule, which is, of course, our core business. When you look at our footprint, the basins we serve, and the markets we serve, we actually see opportunities across the entire footprint for us to play a role. In some instances, those opportunities are many, many years away. I would say from the perspective of hydrogen, for example, we’re still at the stage where we are investigating the technologies and the potential from a safety standpoint. Safety is our number one value, and we want to make sure that the injection of hydrogen into our pipelines will not cause any embrittlement issues and can be safely transported across our systems. But you’re exactly right—our footprint on a broad-based level will present opportunities for us across the board.
Stan Chapman, President, U.S. and Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines
Yes, this is Stan. Just to tag on to that, clean fuels come in many different sizes, shapes, and colors, one of them being renewable natural gas. You may recall that we had a goal this year to double the amount of renewable natural gas we’re taking into our system from 2 Bcf to 4 Bcf and to double it again next year from 4 to 8. We're actually on track to exceed that. By the end of 2022 or early 2023, we’ll have about 30 Bcf of renewable natural gas coming into our system. We’re doing this by overlaying our pipeline footprint against landfill operators, for example, where renewable natural gas and biogas can actually be created. There is a significant opportunity to continue to take advantage of things like renewable natural gas, and this reinforces that our future is one of natural gas and renewables working together.
Andrew Kuske, Analyst
That's very helpful. And then maybe just a bit of an extension of the question. But maybe a particular focus just on what's called old-style hydrocarbons. We’re aware of budget season coming up for most of the producers. But what's the sentiment from really the clients on drilling activity and outlook? Obviously, commodity prices are elevated, but how do you think about that—it's probably more of a question for Stan and for Tracy?
Tracy Robinson, President, Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines and Coastal GasLink
I guess.
Stan Chapman, President, U.S. and Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines
Very good. I'll go ahead and start with respect to what's going on in the U.S. now. One thing if you're watching NYMEX prices of late, you're seeing that there are a lot of $4 in the next four or five or six months, which is something new. All things equal, that's an incentive for producers to continue to drill. And what we're seeing is that producers are doing exactly that—Appalachian production is up to around 34 Bcf. A lot of them focusing on what they would call a responsibly sourced natural gas, that's becoming more and more of a theme these days. I think you will continue to see production growth, particularly out of the Appalachian basin. I think you'll see it done in a responsible way with a focus on emissions. Again, just get back to this theme—I think that we can do this in a way that natural gas and renewables can work together.
Tracy Robinson, President, Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines and Coastal GasLink
And I'll follow-up on that, Andrew. Same kinds of things are going on in Canada. Of course, we have the added element here of the prospect of a carbon tax, a pretty significant carbon tax. We do see the industry focused on emissions reduction, and carbon tax would drive incremental operating costs. We are also seeing the nature of a dialogue that’s pretty consistent in front of us between us. We have a methane reduction program going on. We’re investigating the system's potential to reduce emissions through electrification. We see investments in those types of things. It's important to note that they're focusing on it. We're focusing on it. This energy transition provides meaningful opportunities for investment in our system as we go forward, whether through emissions reductions or the transition to new energies. We are focused on doing this in a manner that preserves the competitiveness of, in our case, the WCSB in the continental market and ultimately into the LNG markets. The best way to mitigate that impact on the carbon price is through investments that lower emissions as we go forward.
Andrew Kuske, Analyst
That’s helpful. Thank you.
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Thanks, Andrew.
Operator, Conference Operator
Our next question comes from Patrick Kenny of National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.
Patrick Kenny, Analyst
Good morning, everybody. I just wanted to touch on this recent trend of Canadian Gas Producers looking to secure long-term market access to the Gulf Coast and international pricing. Of course, contracting with yourself down the main line and A&R. Just curious how meaningful this trend could be in terms of financial upside for you. And then, on the flip side, how you might be thinking about mitigating any impact on your Eastern mainline system from perhaps less Alberta gas flowing into Ontario over time?
Tracy Robinson, President, Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines and Coastal GasLink
I’m going to take that, Patrick. So, we do know that natural gas demand is forecasted to continue to grow in the coming decades globally. LNG, rather, is going to be an important component of global energy demand and transition. North America is positioned really well to participate in that growth, whether it's, to the Gulf Coast or whether it’s off the West Coast to Canada. We have a very strong portfolio of highly integrated interconnected assets across Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. We sit on top of the WCSB in the Marcellus positions as well to participate. We can get to the Gulf Coast through the U.S. assets. We can get to the West Coast. What the opportunity is for us is even if we want to direct access to LNG facilities, but there's also opportunity to fill the void left by gas leaving the continent. We are looking to provide as much access as we can to any global market as we go forward. I would say the opportunity to go down south to the U.S. right now with available capacity is somewhat limited, but we'll continue to work with our customers, both Stan and I, to take advantage of whatever capacity and whatever market opportunity we see.
Patrick Kenny, Analyst
Okay. That's great. Thank you very much.
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Thanks, Pat.
Operator, Conference Operator
Our next question comes from Matt Taylor of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Please go ahead.
Matt Taylor, Analyst
Yes. Thanks for taking my questions here. I wanted to start first on your focus on the U.S. for renewable development. Can you explain what needs to change in Canada on the regulatory side for you to start focusing on electrification of compressor stations, of looking at renewable opportunities tied into NGTL or the mainline, which I believe you said, you're really just focused on the U.S. right now?
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Perhaps I'll start and then Corey can provide additional comments. With respect to electrification of compression within our Canadian gas system, our obligation with a prescribed rate of return is to deliver the least cost alternative. Currently, that least cost alternative in most instances is to deliver or to build gas turbines to deliver the service. As the carbon tax potentially escalates over time, we would be reassessing what technology meets the standard of least cost alternative. We do believe that inflection point is somewhere around $50 or $60 a tonne, where there would be a clear economic advantage to designing an increased number of compressor stations with electric motors. We also have to factor in reliability; we also have to factor in proximity to poles and wires to supply the power to electric motors at compressor stations. To the extent there are other regulatory accommodations to perhaps even include some of the generation into the rate base, that would also help accelerate that development. Those are the two things that I see on that question. Corey, is there anything else you want to add?
Corey Hessen, President, Power and Storage
Yes, Matt, the only thing I would add is that you've got to pick a starting point. In the U.S., we have a significant opportunity with the current financial models in place. We are taking the lessons we're learning about the process in the U.S. and then we'll actively apply those lessons learned to our opportunity set in Canada.
Matt Taylor, Analyst
That's great. Thank you. Maybe one follow-up for you, Francois: You mentioned that it’s tied to the least cost alternative. I'm just curious on your thoughts whether or not educating the government here or even lobbying, if Canada is serious about meeting our carbon emission objectives, if in fact that is the right way to be looking at this—looking at this, I mean. We can make the argument that carbon taxes could still be viewed very politically. So perhaps, maybe not just looking at the least cost alternatives is the right way to be looking at this longer term?
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
We are in conversation, either directly or through industry associations, with regulators to the extent it’s appropriate, of course, outside of specific project conversations, as well as various levels of government. From my perspective, the policy landscape is evolving very rapidly. These are very complex questions that take some time to implement thoughtfully. All participants—whether they are our customers, ourselves, the regulators, or governments—all have the same objective in mind, which is to deliver energy reliably and responsibly and minimize our emissions, while providing it in an affordable fashion at the lowest possible cost. But it will simply take some time due to the velocity of policy change for that to be implemented in a practical manner.
Matt Taylor, Analyst
That's great. Thanks for that. That's it for me.
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Thanks, Matt.
Operator, Conference Operator
Our next question comes from Becca Followill of U.S. Capital Advisors. Please go ahead.
Becca Followill, Analyst
Good morning, guys. Just following up on the issue of reliability and electric compression for gas pipelines. Most battery storage is about four hours. How do you handle the reliability issue on gas pipelines and putting in electric compression?
Glenn Menuz, Vice President and Controller
Hey, Francois here. Yes, go ahead. I will take that, Francois. What we are doing with the VR project, for example, is putting in a dual drive that is both gas and electric-driven. So for example, when you have electric power to the station, the electric motor will spin. If you have a loss of electric power, then the gas unit will kick in. Effectively, there's a clutch that will engage the electric motor. So you have 100% reliability with respect to these dual drives that we're putting in.
Becca Followill, Analyst
Yes, that makes sense. Just to clarify, this is independent investment; this is not investment that you would put in rate base.
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Under the current compact in all of our jurisdictions, these investments in terms of renewables would be in our unregulated affiliates that are our Power and Storage business that Corey runs. We enter into arm's length commercial arrangements with the regulated affiliates.
Becca Followill, Analyst
Okay, thank you. And then on the carbon grid, is that dependent at all on temporary pipeline mergers within some of the pipelines being used in that? And how does the determination of impact upon that?
Bevin Wirzba, Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate Development and President, Liquids Pipelines
Yes, Becca, thanks for the question. This is Bevin. Our assets partner with Pembina. We remain focused on developing this world-scale carbon transportation system. Both of us as partners have an extensive network of pipelines on which we can rely for the project. It’s not just specific pipelines, but its corridors and interconnections. We believe we can leverage both of our asset bases, as well as work with other industry partners to fulfill the development of the full grid.
Becca Followill, Analyst
So the inter-pipeline merger breaking part has no impact on the project?
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
At this time, no. They wouldn’t; we're still in very early stages of pulling together all the pieces of the lines that would contribute. In the outcome that Brookfield is successful with the inter-pipe acquisition, you know, we'll definitely look to work with them as well to see if they can also be part of this industry solution.
Becca Followill, Analyst
Right. Thank you.
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Thanks, Becca.
Operator, Conference Operator
Our next question comes from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Michael Lapides, Analyst
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my question. Real quick, compared in the release was the detail about unit 3 on Bruce and the hydrogen pressure levels. I know you mentioned that you didn't think it was material for your cash flows. Just curious what you're seeing technically right now that gives you that conviction. I'm just thinking about the history of North America over the last 10 or 15 years when some of the other plans—some on the U.S. side of the border had pretty major issues that actually started with what people thought were pretty minor things when they were undergoing outages. I'd love to know, just kind of what at this early stage gives you that insight to think it's not something more serious at unit 3?
Corey Hessen, President, Power and Storage
Hi, Michael, it's Corey. I don't want to speak for the executive management team at Bruce Power about technical issues. What I can say is that the issue was identified, and we are following a systematic process as identified by the CNSC on how to manage this effectively. We have done a fair amount of R&D at the site and amongst all the can-do operators to resolve the issue. Until the CNSC process is complete, I don't want to comment exactly what the technical resolution is; I’m really not qualified. I don’t think anybody on our team is really qualified in a way that’s meaningful to answer that question.
Michael Lapides, Analyst
Got it, okay. And you’re confident at this point that it’s something that’s just isolated to unit 3 and it doesn’t impact any of the other units there?
Corey Hessen, President, Power and Storage
What I would say is that the unit 3 design is a bit different than the other units. The impact on unit 3 is different than what it would be on those other units.
Michael Lapides, Analyst
Got it? Thanks. Thank you very much, guys.
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Thanks, Michael.
Operator, Conference Operator
Our next question comes from Alex Kania of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Alex Kania, Analyst
Thanks. I just had one question. I guess the theme of a lot of the new investment opportunities are into energy transition and Tennessee rehabilitation and just trying to make the product cleaner. But it's just, you know, thinking about your history with respect to portfolio management. Are there any new assets or what not that are in the existing portfolio today that you feel like could be sold or divested to maybe improve the overall kind of footprint, if you think about that long-term transitional strategy? It'll help fund the rest of the investments?
Don Marchand, CFO
Hi, Alex, it's Don here. I think you've seen us recycle capital here over the past several years. It's shown a willingness and adeptness for that. Whenever we start looking at our growth versus our internal capacity, we look to minimize share count growth, and we look for the cheapest source of funding for new projects here. We will continue to scour the portfolio and look for asset sale opportunities to fund anything beyond our internal capacity, which is probably in the $5 to $6 billion a year range. That said, we're into the pretty good stuff now. We have to be cognizant, and this has consequences. The optionality embedded in our assets and the network value that Tracy and Stan alluded to earlier—we've got a dozen and a half pipelines across the system. Taking a piece out or certain components actually detracts from the overall network value. That's something we’ll look at, but there is nothing jumping out of any magnitude right now where we think it's a candidate for that. But anytime we're looking at investing beyond internal capacity, it's something we will evaluate.
Alex Kania, Analyst
Great. Thanks. Best of luck.
Don Marchand, CFO
Thank you.
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Thanks, Alex.
Operator, Conference Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the question-and-answer session. If there are any further questions, please contact Investor Relations at TC Energy. I will now turn the call over to Francois Poirier. Please go ahead.
Francois Poirier, President and CEO
Thank you. In summary, during the first half of 2021, our commitment to operational excellence and the strong demand for our services translated into record financial results. As we advance our $21 billion secure capital program and numerous other organic growth opportunities, we expect to build on our long track record of growing earnings, cash flow, and dividends per share. With an irreplaceable asset footprint, extensive technical expertise, substantial internally generated cash, and a solid balance sheet, we are well positioned to prosper irrespective of the pace or direction energy transition takes. Looking forward, we will continue to focus on safety, sustainability, working according to our values, and responding quickly to market signals and signposts. Before closing, I would like to acknowledge that this is Don's last quarterly conference call. He is stepping down as CFO on July 31 and will retire on November 1 after 27 years with the company. As a long-standing and deeply respected member of our senior management team, Don has played a significant role in our strategic direction, our growth, our financial strength, and our ability to have fun while doing it. Thank you, Don, on behalf of the entire executive team and on behalf of our Board of Directors. On August 1, Joel Hunter will be assuming the role of Executive Vice President and CFO. Joel has been with TC Energy for 24 years, working closely with Don and making a significant contribution to the company's success in raising capital, executing on key initiatives, and navigating major market events and industry shifts. I'm confident he will maintain a disciplined approach to our financial strength, risk preferences, and capital allocation decisions as we continue to execute on our vision to be North America's premier energy infrastructure company now and in the future. That concludes my remarks, and thanks very much for joining us today. We appreciate your ongoing interest and support and look forward to speaking again with you soon.
Operator, Conference Operator
This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.