Earnings Call Transcript - TX Q3 2024

Operator, Operator

Thank you for standing by. My name is Kayla, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Ternium Third Quarter 2024 Results Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Sebastian Marti. You may begin.

Sebastian Marti, Global IR and Compliance Senior Director

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. My name is Sebastian Marti, Ternium's Global IR and Compliance Senior Director. Yesterday, Ternium released its financial results for the third quarter and first nine months of 2024. This call is intended to complement that presentation. I'm joined today by Maximo Vedoya, Ternium's Chief Executive Officer; and Pablo Brizzio, Ternium's Chief Financial Officer, who will discuss Ternium's business environment and performance. We will open up the floor to questions following our prepared remarks. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this conference call contains forward-looking information and that actual results may vary from those expressed or implied. Factors that could affect results are contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and on Page 2 in today's webcast presentation. You will also find any reference to non-IFRS financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable IFRS measures in the press release issued yesterday. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Vedoya.

Maximo Vedoya, CEO

Good morning, and thank you very much for participating in today's Ternium third quarter earnings call. Ternium reported an adjusted EBITDA of $368 million and a net income of $93 million for the third quarter. We experienced increased shipments across all our primary markets and, as anticipated in the last quarter's call, our margins declined, primarily due to the decrease in realized price in our main market. Let's review the status of these markets. The steel market in Mexico remains healthy, operating at consistent levels after last year's significant 14% year-over-year increase in apparent steel consumption. In fact, in the third quarter of 2024, we had record high shipments in this market. For the fourth quarter, we expect a decline in shipments as a result of this period being the seasonally weak time of the year. Additionally, public investment has been soft recently, which is common in Mexico following a change of administration. Once this process is completed, we expect demand from infrastructure projects to return as the new government has announced plans to launch several projects aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of Mexican industry. Looking ahead, our outlook has several bright spots. In the first quarter of next year, we expect sequential shipment growth in this market. In part, this will be the result of our new pickling line, which is boosting our capacity for automotive and industrial markets as it ramps up production. Furthermore, I am optimistic about the Mexican market in the year to come. Automotive production increased by 7% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2024 and is expected to reach 4.2 million units in 2025, which could be a record high. Finally, nearshoring trends are expected to persist, benefiting the steel markets on both sides of the border. The new administration in Mexico recognized this opportunity for the country and has stated its commitment to pursuing a policy of industrialization and import substitution, very much in line with what we have been advocating for many years. Moving to Brazil, we see healthy industrial activity and a dynamic distribution market. Steel consumption in the Brazil market has been growing during the year, increasing by 9% year-over-year in the first nine months of this year. Vehicle production is growing as well with an expected 5% increase in 2024. On the other hand, flat steel imports jumped 20% year-over-year in these first nine months, mainly from China, as this country significantly increases steel shipments to the international markets. As it has already happened in other countries, the Brazilian government noticed this increase in unfair trade from China and as a result of their steel excess capacity, put in place a one-year quota system under which steel imports above a certain quarter are subject to a 25% tariff. Unfortunately, these measures haven't yielded the expected results. Following this, several anti-dumping investigations have been initiated over imports of cold-rolled steel, coated steel, and prepainted steel, mainly from China. These measures are promising. We encourage the Brazilian government to continue this path to prevent more deindustrialization in Brazil. Finally, let's review Argentina. Steel volumes in the Argentina market have shown a recovery over the past several quarters, both within the industrial and the commercial market. In the fourth quarter, we expect to maintain a stable level of steel shipments despite the seasonal slowdown in activity towards the end of the year. With a long-term view, I think Argentina’s industrial and construction activity will improve in 2025, favoring a recovery in local steel demand. The Argentine government is implementing an ambitious reform program that we expect will promote investments in the country. However, there is a risk in this market of an increase in imports of unfair trade and products made with steel. This will be an important issue to follow up with the Argentine authorities during next year. Our wind farm in Argentina will begin operation by year-end, boosting our use of self-generated renewable energy and reducing reliance on external sources. The project is progressing as planned with the completion of 22 bases and the installation of 14 wind turbines to date. We anticipate that the first unit will begin delivering energy in December, with the project expected to reach full completion by January. This represents a significant milestone in our commitment to renewable energy and decarbonization. Let me now give you an update on the progress of our expansion projects. The pickling line and three of the five lines in the new finishing center in Pesquería have started operation and are currently ramping up. These lines are at 550,000 tons per year of pickling capacity and 310,000 tons a year of customized products capacity. During the next two months, we plan to start up the two remaining lines in the finishing center. In addition, we are making steady progress on the 600,000 tons per year galvanizing line and 1.6 million tons per year cold-rolling mill. We plan to start this operation at the end of 2025 and early 2026, respectively. We have completed the soil movement and civil work, and assembly of structure and buildings is advancing rapidly. Equipment shipments have already commenced. Lastly, for the construction of the 2.6 million ton per year slab-making facility in Pesquería, we have completed the cleaning and soil movement in most areas. We are making progress in civil work, foundation, and structural installations. Also, key operational contracts have been awarded and are underway. We expect to start up this slab facility by mid-2026. The new production lines in the Pesquería project will enable the company to enhance its product offering with a broader range of high-quality steel products and cater to diverse customer needs more effectively, meeting the high-quality requirements of the automotive and appliance sectors. Moreover, the new slab facility is expected to significantly increase Ternium's raw steel production capacity in Mexico, ensuring a steady supply of slabs from downstream processing. This facility will also enhance Ternium's operational efficiency and reduce dependency on external suppliers, leading to cost savings and improved profit margins. Finally, I would like to highlight the publication of Ternium's latest Sustainability Report. This report includes, among other new features, an update on Ternium's decarbonization targets, detailing several enhancements introduced since our initial target was set in 2021. For the first time, our target includes Scope 3 emissions, which are not directly associated with our company. This includes emissions related to the production of semi-finished products such as slabs and billets produced from third parties, as well as emissions generated by our customers during the processing of our slabs and billets. In addition, we have expanded the boundaries of our CO2 emissions reporting beyond crude steel to include hot-rolled steel production, and we migrated to GHG protocols methodology to improve comparability with other indices and prepare for future regulatory requirements. The updated target is a 15% reduction in emissions intensity by 2030, using 2023 as a baseline. As in previous years, our greenhouse inventory for 2023 was audited by a third party following, as I said, both GHG protocols and rolled-steel methodology. With these changes to our reporting, we are among the very few companies that include Scope 3 emissions in their targets. Our aim with this decision is to significantly increase transparency and accuracy in our emission report. We invite you to download the report from our website and review the extensive information on our sustainability initiatives. The detailed insights will offer a comprehensive understanding of our commitment to sustainable practices. To wrap up my initial remarks, I'd like to say I'm confident in Ternium's performance in 2025. I believe our main markets will offer several opportunities for our company with the strength of the neutral market in Mexico, the recovery of steel consumption in Brazil, and the significant reforms in Argentina's economy. In addition, I expect our margin to gradually improve during the year with lower costs of raw material and slabs and our continued work in cost-cutting initiatives. With this, please, Pablo, you can now proceed with a review of Ternium's performance during the third quarter.

Pablo Brizzio, CFO

Thanks, Maximo, and thanks everybody for participating in our conference call. Let's move to the webcast presentation for a detailed overview of our operations and financial results. If we start by Page 3, we see that, as anticipated, our adjusted EBITDA declined this quarter. The main factors driving this result were lower realized steel prices across our main markets, which were partially offset by a small decline in steel cost per ton, and an increase in shipments. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect a more sequential increase in adjusted EBITDA, driven by slightly better margins, although this will be partially offset by a seasonal decrease in shipments. Turning to the next slide, net income for the third quarter was $93 million. When comparing second quarter adjusted net income to the third quarter net income, we see lower deferred tax losses and improved financial results in the third quarter, partially offset by a decline in operating income. The FX gain in the quarter reflects the favorable effect of the Mexican peso depreciation and the Brazilian real appreciation against the US dollar, causing an FX gain on Ternium Mexico's net short local currency position and Usiminas' US dollar-nominated debt. Let's turn to our steel segment performance on Page 5. This quarter, we significantly increased shipments in our key markets. Looking ahead, we anticipate a decrease in shipments in the fourth quarter due to usual year-end seasonality both in Mexico and in Brazil. Now, let's take a look at the consolidated sales and profitability of the steel segment on the next page. Despite an increase in steel shipment, sales held steady compared to the previous quarter due to the decline in revenue per ton, driven by a decrease in realized steel prices in our primary market, which affected our margins. The price decline was partially offset by a small decrease in steel cost per ton, as we continue to use previously bought raw material and slabs during the third quarter. Turning to Usiminas' blast furnace, operations recorded efficiency gains in the period, particularly in fuel consumption. In addition, labor and maintenance costs decreased sequentially in the third quarter. Let's move on to Slide 7 to review the performance of our Mining segment. In the third quarter, shipments rose by 13% sequentially, driven by higher production in our Mexican and Brazilian operations. Despite this quarter-over-quarter growth, net sales were relatively stable due to the offset of lower iron-ore market prices. Our margins in the Mining segment decreased in this quarter, mainly due to this drop in iron-ore prices, while slight reduction in cost per ton helped to soften the impact of this decrease. Let's move on to the next slide to review our cash flow performance. As of the end of September, Ternium's net cash position declined to $1.7 billion, with a decrease in cash flow from operations compared to the second quarter, primarily due to a decrease in EBITDA and an increase in working capital together with higher capital expenditure. Moving to the final slide, we can see a summary of our performance over the past five years. In the first nine months of 2024, our capital expenditure showed a significant year-over-year increase. We continue making progress, as Maximo explained, in the construction of new facilities in our Pesquería industrial center as well as in the new wind farm in Argentina. We expect to have a total CapEx of between $1.7 billion to $1.8 billion in 2024. To conclude this presentation, I would like to highlight that yesterday, Ternium's Board of Directors announced the payment of an interim dividend of $0.90 per ADS totaling $177 million. Over the past three years, the company has structured dividends so that the interim payment in November represents roughly one-third of the total annual amount, with the remaining two-thirds distributed in May following shareholders' approvals. We expect this time to follow a similar approach. So, our total dividend payment corresponding to the fiscal year 2024 would represent a dividend yield of about 8% based on the current share price and a 68% payout ratio based on adjusted net income for the past 12 months. Over the past three years, additionally, the Board has consistently decided to distribute a substantial dividend annually. The current dividend decision aligns with this established practice of providing an attractive dividend yield and allocating a significant portion of net income even during periods of increased capital expenditures. This capability is a result of Ternium's solid financial position. With this, we have concluded our initial prepared remarks. We would like now to go and to take any questions you may have. Operator, please begin the Q&A session. Thanks.

Operator, Operator

Our first question comes from the line of Marcio Farid with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Marcio Farid, Analyst

I have a couple of questions. Can you hear me? Good morning, and thank you for the opportunity. I want to start by expressing my continued confidence in demand in Mexico heading into next year, as well as some expected improvement in profitability with lower costs. Argentina appears to be performing well, and I appreciate your positive outlook there. I understand that lower benchmark prices are the primary reason for the weaker earnings in the third quarter. However, I was surprised by the dividend cut. Initially, I thought the plan was to maintain stable to growing dividends throughout the cycle, even during downturns. This is one of the reasons your balance sheet leverage has remained low, enabling you to execute capital expenditures while also committing to flat or growing dividends. This announcement came as a surprise to us. As we consider your constructive outlook, I'm trying to grasp why the Board decided to reduce the dividends this year and whether you anticipate restoring the $3.30 per share that was distributed last year. Additionally, a significant topic today is the outcome of the US election. You've outlined some key actions the Mexican administration is undertaking to support industrial activity, including nearshoring and maintaining essential institutions. However, we have seen headlines suggesting higher taxation and a potentially stricter stance on Mexico regarding the renegotiation of the USMCA agreement. Could you share your initial thoughts on the risks and opportunities for Ternium, given its exposure to both Mexico and North America? Thank you.

Maximo Vedoya, CEO

Thank you very much, Marcio. I will start with the second part of your question and then we'll go to the dividend if you allow me. The outcome of the US election, and you were very clear, I see this as an opportunity to be honest. I think, first of all, we are out of the uncertainty. We have two new administrations, one in Mexico that already is a month in the job. And now, we will have one in the US. So, I think that's something good because now people can start talking and can start working together. I think from the Mexican point of view, the new administration, President Sheinbaum, understands and shares very much the concern that the US had with unfair trade from China. She has been very clear and vocal about this. As you know, several weeks ago, we participated in the US-Mexico CEO Dialogue, which has been going on for quite a few years between CEOs of Mexico and the US, and this was with the new administration in Mexico. I think there was a big consensus of all the participants that the opportunity to strengthen the North American region and safeguard against violations of trade, especially by Asia. In that meeting also, people were very positive about the good outcome of the new USMCA. The new USMCA, which was negotiated in 2018, brings a lot of benefits both for Mexico and for the US, which increased exports to Mexico by more than 30% in that period of time. The other thing that the President of Mexico showed up and said in that meeting was she was very firm about the vision she had of strengthening North America and reducing the trade deficit that Mexico has with Asia, well over $200 billion. So, I think the alignments are quite similar. I think that it's positive. The discussion has to start. There is going to be a revision of the USMCA, which again, I think is very good, and clearly, it has room to improve. So, I am positive about the outcome of these elections. I hope I answered that part of the question, Marcio.

Marcio Farid, Analyst

That was great. Thank you. Very detailed.

Maximo Vedoya, CEO

And Pablo, why don't you talk about the dividend?

Pablo Brizzio, CFO

Certainly, Max. The Board has decided to implement a small reduction in the dividend payment. However, when looking at the bigger picture, the proposed and approved dividend not only maintains or enhances the company’s dividend yield but also significantly raises the payout ratio. This is important considering that the company has experienced a decrease in EBITDA this year and has slightly lowered its total net cash position. Moreover, we are entering a phase next year where our capital expenditure plan will be greater than this year’s. Overall, the company is committed to sustaining a robust dividend payment with a high distribution level. As I mentioned earlier, this is possible due to our strong financial position, which enables us to maintain financial stability while undertaking significant capital projects, such as our work in Pesquería. We believe this decision on the dividend payment reflects our commitment to maintaining high dividend payouts, as we have significantly increased these payments over the last few years, and this trend continues. While the nominal number may show a decrease, all comparisons and ratios indicate that our dividend payments remain substantial. I hope that addresses your question, Marcio.

Marcio Farid, Analyst

Yeah. No, that's great. Is it fair to assume that we should look more at the dividend yields? Because obviously, share price is down by about 20% year-to-date and that's helping the yields, right? But is it fair to say we should look more at the yields and the payouts rather than the nominal terms?

Pablo Brizzio, CFO

Exactly, because, again, the payout ratio is around 70%, which is quite high in comparison to any other companies and what we have done in the past three or four years. So, we are distributing a significant amount of what we have generated during the year.

Alfonso Salazar, Analyst

Yes. Thank you for the call and for taking the question. Maximo, I have another question for you. And this is regarding the steel industry in North America, not only in Mexico. What is the outlook here? Because what we know is that North America is a big net importer of steel. There is more capacity needed for all these efforts for reshoring and nearshoring, but at the same time, we have this overcapacity problem globally and it's only getting worse as China weakens. Demand in China is weakening. There are tariffs that could be implemented, but that is going to impact competitiveness in the region. And even there is a risk that there are tariffs within the North American region; we cannot rule out that possibility. So, how do you see the global steel market going to balance? Are we going to have two separate steel markets globally, one by China and another one by North America and Europe? Or how this is going to unfold over the next three to five years? I would like to hear your thoughts on that.

Maximo Vedoya, CEO

Alfonso, that's a great question. I don't know if I have a great answer for you, but clearly, there is an overcapacity in China. There is an overall capacity in China that was made, not because of market forces, but because of a Chinese government policy or you can call it industrial policy, whatever you want, but it was a government incentive that created an overcapacity, not only in steel but in many industries. So that's a problem in itself. And as I always said, it's impossible to compete with China given all the subsidies and all the schemes that the Chinese state-owned enterprises have in steel or in many, many other products. What will happen or what is happening is that most of the regions are reacting to this. North America is reacting to this. The US, Canada, and Mexico have implemented a series of actions. Brazil is starting to react. Europe has already reacted. So, I think we are going to have many regional markets, and that's how it's going to operate in the future. In the case of North America, particularly, I think the North America region is a very competitive region to produce steel, especially low-carbon intensity steel. Mexico, probably of the big markets, is the lowest CO2 emitter per ton followed by the US. Companies in North America, including Ternium, are investing in more capacity to supply all the needs of the region competitively. Again, no one can compete with a state like China, and I think that it's because of that, the reaction is that the governments are taking place. I hope I gave a short answer to a very long topic, Alfonso.

Alfonso Salazar, Analyst

Thank you for your response. I have a question regarding the potential risk of tariffs on steel entering the US. In your opinion, what strategies could Ternium implement if that scenario arises?

Maximo Vedoya, CEO

Look, I cannot speculate today about tariffs in the US. I think, as I said in the beginning, I think that this is more of an opportunity to strengthen all the North American supply chain. I think that the administrations in Mexico and the US have a common objective in this. I'm very confident that, of course, there will be discussions and negotiations, but in the end, they are looking for the same thing. So, I guess, things are going to be resolved.

Henrique Braga, Analyst

Hello, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I have two questions. First, I would like to know about the steel imports in Brazil. You've mentioned that the government is reviewing the quota system. Can you share what the company is doing in this regard? Are you collaborating closely with the government, and what do you anticipate as a result? Will the quota system be reduced, extended, or will there be any changes to the tariffs? My second question concerns future investments. I know you have an ongoing CapEx plan, but what are your thoughts on Ternium's next steps after the investments in Mexico? Will you focus on the Americas, or do you see expansion into other regions? Thank you.

Maximo Vedoya, CEO

Thank you, Henrique. Steel imports in Brazil, I mean, the government implemented this quota system. It was implemented in June, so it's very early to see the results. If you know the system, it's a four-month quota. So, you cannot surpass supposedly that quota. Let me give you a real example. The quota for the flat product was around 400,000 tons. That was the quota for the first four months. The imports, mainly from China, because 80% of that comes from China, instead of 400,000 tons was 900,000 tons. So, it's more than double, and most of those didn't pay the 25% tariff. What we're telling the government, not specifically Ternium but the industry association, is that as it is currently implemented, it’s a good first step, but it's not working because there are some loopholes in the system. So, on one side, we are saying, okay, we should continue working to close off those loopholes. The second thing that Ternium and other companies are doing is filing dumping cases. I think that's the long-term view, as most countries are doing, but that takes time, and we're doing that as a second step. I hope this is clear from the first question, Henrique? As for future investments, as we have always said, we are going to focus on the Americas. We are not going to go to other regions. I think we have opportunities in the Americas, especially in Latin America, to continue growing and to continue investing. Today, as you know, we are focused mainly on increasing the Pesquería project, which, as you know, is the biggest project we have ever had in our history. So, we are a lot focused in the next two years on completing this project on time and with the quality we need. As you know, it's going to be really the first steel shop of its kind. We are very focused on completing this and being successful in this.

Camilla Barder, Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thank you for the opportunity for taking my questions. Just two quick questions. First on CapEx. Not sure it's too early to say, but is there any estimate for CapEx in 2024 and 2025? And on cost, for Q4, you mentioned we could expect a drop as lower raw material inventories flow through results, but looking at 2025, what can we expect in terms of cost? And also, if you could provide your expectation for free cash flow in the coming quarters, it would be great as well. Thank you.

Maximo Vedoya, CEO

Thank you, Camila, very much for your questions. CapEx in 2025, I think that was your first question? Our total CapEx will be around $2.3 billion. This includes Usiminas. A big part of that is going to the Pesquería project, of course. 2025 will probably be the year of greatest CapEx in our history because of the Pesquería project.

Pablo Brizzio, CFO

Then, yeah, sorry, we didn't hear that well your questions, but I think the second one was in respect to our expectation for free cash flow generation in the coming quarters. Let me take that one, Maximo. Sure. In respect to free cash flow, what we are expecting is, first of all, to continue increasing our CapEx investment, as you have already asked and Maximo gave you the amount. Without taking that into consideration, which clearly is a very significant amount, we shouldn't have that significant changes in working capital. The increase in working capital this quarter was primarily due to an increase in account payouts and nothing else, not an increase in inventories or in our account receivables. So, we should have positive operating cash flow and continue increasing the CapEx. So, all-in-all, we should be in a better position than the one that we have this quarter. Secondly, as we have already mentioned, both Maximo and myself, our expectation is to continue reducing costs in different ways. One of them is something that we discuss almost every quarter, which is that we are still utilizing raw material and special slabs bought in prior quarters but at a higher price than the current one. That's why we should see a reduction in cost coming in the next and the following quarter. Also, we are always working very hard on continuing our cost reduction program in all the facilities where we are operating. We tend to be positive in that respect with the numbers we already mentioned for the fourth quarter and especially for 2025.

Maximo Vedoya, CEO

Thank you, Camila.

Operator, Operator

And there are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to the CEO, Maximo Vedoya.

Maximo Vedoya, CEO

Thank you very much all for joining us in this call. We welcome your feedback, and have a great day. See you in three months.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.