Earnings Call Transcript - VALE Q3 2024

Operator, Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Vale's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. This conference is being recorded, and the replay will be available on our website at vale.com. The presentation is also available for download in English and Portuguese from our website. To listen to the call in Portuguese, please press the globe icon on the lower right side of your Zoom screen and then choose to enter the Portuguese room. Then select mute original audio, so that you won't hear the English version in the background. We would like to inform that all participants are currently in a listen-only mode for the presentations. Further instructions will be provided before we begin the question-and-answer section of our call. We would like to advise that forward-looking statements may be provided in this presentation, including Vale's expectations about future events or results, encompassing those matters listed in the respective presentation. We caution you that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties. To obtain information on factors that may lead to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports Vale files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários, and in particular, the factors discussed under forward-looking statements and risks factors in Vale's annual report on Form 20-F. With us today are Mr. Gustavo Pimenta, CEO; Mr. Murilo Muller, Acting Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations; Mr. Rogério Nogueira, Acting Executive Vice President, Iron Ore Solutions; Mr. Carlos Medeiros, Executive Vice President of Operations; Mr. Shaun Usmar, CEO of Vale Base Metals; and Mr. Alexandre D'Ambrosio, Executive Vice President of Corporate and External Affairs. Now, I will turn the conference over to Mr. Gustavo Pimenta. Sir, you may now begin.

Gustavo Pimenta, CEO

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Vale's third quarter 2024 conference call. I'm pleased to present Vale's results for the first time as the company's CEO. Before I start, I would like to take a moment to thank Eduardo Bartolomeo for his tenure as CEO of Vale in the last five years. Eduardo led Vale through one of the most difficult periods of our history. He drove a series of significant changes within the company, and today, we are in a much stronger position, being safer, more stable, and better prepared for an even greater future. On behalf of the entire Vale team, we thank you, Eduardo, for that. I also want to express my gratitude to the Board of Directors for their trust and confidence. It is an honor for me to lead this great company. And I'm highly confident and optimistic about our future. In my initial weeks as CEO, I have outlined the key areas of focus that would guide us going forward. Vale has immense potential, and I firmly believe that we can position ourselves as a reference in the sector. For that, we are building on our solid progress to develop a Vale 2030 vision, which we plan on detailing at Vale Day, in early December. This vision will be based on three key pillars. First, a performance-driven culture; we will accelerate our cultural transformation, maintaining our focus on safety and operational excellence, while also becoming a more agile, efficient organization. As such, we'll be taking decisive actions to maturely improve our competitiveness and once again position Vale in the very low end of the industry global cost curve. We will provide more details about our cost efficiency initiatives and associated targets at Vale Day. Second, a superior portfolio; we will accelerate the execution of our premium iron ore strategy, leveraging our unique endowment. Vale has one of the richest iron ore resources in the world, and we aim to structurally produce about 350 million tons of iron ore, of which 80% to 90% will be high-quality products, like BRBF, Carajás, and agglomerated products. This flexible portfolio will allow us to support our clients in their decarbonization journey while maintaining the optionality to capture value under different market conditions. We also have a very unique base metals platform, with significant growth potential, particularly in copper. I'm very pleased with our strategic decision to carve out the business last year, and we have a world-class dedicated team under the leadership of Shaun. I'm highly confident we will take this business to the next level in the following years. Third, it is essential that our stakeholders see us as a trusted partner. For that, we will be working closely with society to leave a positive legacy from our activities, while creating responsible and trustworthy relationships. This will be a critical priority of mine and my leadership team, and I'm certain it will give us a competitive advantage going forward. We are working as a team to detail what each one of these levers means in terms of concrete goals, targets, and initiatives. And we'll be providing the details at Vale Day. Now, let's take a look at our recent performance in the next slides. We are making steady progress on our commitment to eliminate upstream dams in Brazil. Our decharacterization program includes 30 structures. And this month, we achieved another important milestone by eliminating the 16th structure, Dique 1A, on October 11, about two months ahead of schedule. The dam elimination process requires a lot of innovation, and it is complex and unique for each structure. We have gained incredible experience and knowledge through this process, and this has allowed us to accelerate the decharacterization of many structures while upholding the highest standards of safety and risk management. We will continue to deliver on our dam safety commitments with a disciplined approach. Alongside the decommissioning process, we are working to enhance the safety of our structures. The chart on the next slide shows our progress on removing dams from emergency levels. In August, we removed the Sul Superior Dam from emergency level 3. Currently, there is just one dam left at this level, which is the Forquilha III Dam. We are making very good progress to reduce this dam's emergency levels, being on track to deliver on our commitment to have no dams at level 3 by 2025. The future of mining will require companies to reduce their footprint and minimize even further the impact of their operations. At Vale, we have been working on a series of initiatives to create more sustainable operations, such as our Gelado plant in Carajás, which will be able to produce up to 5 million tons per year of high-quality iron ore by reprocessing existing tailings. Other initiatives include processing waste from piles and generating co-products for other industries. In addition to minimizing the impact of our operations, these initiatives usually have quicker time to market and lower unit costs once they reach scale. Now, let's talk about the performance of our portfolio in the next slide. This quarter we delivered the highest iron ore production since 2018, underscoring our focus on operational excellence. Aligned with our strategy to grow in agglomerated products, our pellet production reached its highest level for any quarter since 2019, increasing 13% year on year. Last month, we increased our production guidance for the year, and we are now confident we can deliver at the top end of the 323 to 330 million tons range for 2024. Iron ore sales in the quarter were in line year on year, with an important quality improvement in our product mix on the back of higher BRBF sales and the proactive decision to reduce direct sales of high-silica ore. Delivering on our growth projects in iron ore is critical for us to improve the flexibility of our portfolio. To that end, I'm very pleased to see the successful startup of Vargem Grande within budget and one month ahead of schedule. This is a 15 million ton iron ore project, which should also increase iron ore content by about 2% at the site. The next relevant project to come online is Capanema, with another 15 million tons. The project is already 91% complete and is scheduled to start up in the first-half of 2025. This demonstrates that we are effectively delivering on our commitments. Regaining not only volumes but more importantly commercial flexibility, which will help us maximize value creation. Looking at our Energy Transition Metals business, we also saw a strong production performance year on year in both copper and nickel, as the asset review initiatives started generating results. Ore processed at Salobo 1 and 2 plants increased by 30% year on year, and our Sudbury mines had a 20% increase in mill throughput year on year. Shaun Usmar has recently joined as CEO of VBM and will continue the implementation of the asset review and execution of the company's long-term strategy. I'm confident we have the best team in place to take the Energy Transition Metals business to the next level. Last but not least, after two years of negotiation, today marks an important chapter in our history. We signed the binding terms for the full reparation of Samarco's Fundão dam collapse. The terms agreed upon are a result of open dialogue based on social, environmental, and technical criteria and reinforce Vale's commitment to a fair and definitive reparation. The total value of the agreement is BRL 170 billion, which will be divided into BRL 100 billion in cash payments payable over 20 years to the federal government, the states of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, and the municipalities, to fund compensatory programs and actions tied to public policies. Plus, BRL 32 billion in obligations to be performed by Samarco over the next years, including ongoing programs for individual indemnification, resettlement, and environmental recovery, which will be gradually transferred from the Renova Foundation. The total amount also considers the BRL 38 billion already disbursed in 42 compensation programs over the years. Together with all key stakeholders, we reached a mutually beneficial solution for all parties, especially for the impacted people, communities, and the environment, while creating definitiveness and legal certainty for the companies. Now, I'd like to invite Murilo Muller, our acting CFO, to talk about our financial performance. Please, Murilo.

Murilo Muller, Acting CFO

Thanks, Gustavo, and good morning, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here to present our third quarter 2024 results. Let's start with our EBITDA performance. As you can see, our pro forma EBITDA reached $3.7 billion in the quarter, with some encouraging factors that helped mitigate the impact of lower iron ore prices. In Q3 2024, we achieved higher sales volumes, particularly in pellets, our highest quality product. We also delivered a much better performance on costs and expenses, while the weaker Brazilian Real provided further support. As Gustavo mentioned earlier, we are extremely focused on regaining our competitiveness, and our C1 cost performance is particularly important in this journey. Let's take a closer look at our C1 in the next slides. In Iron ore, our C1 cash costs, excluding third-party purchases, were $28.6 per ton, 17% lower quarter-on-quarter and 6% lower year-on-year. We were pleased to see that this is the first year-on-year decrease in C1 cash costs since the first quarter of 2021, giving us confidence that we are on the right path to becoming a more efficient company. The sequential improvement was driven by the results of our efficiency initiatives, lower maintenance expenses, fixed cost dilution, as well as a better production mix, with more volumes coming from the Northern System, where we have our most competitive operations. We are highly confident in delivering our C1 cost guidance for 2024 of $21.5 to $23 per ton. More than that, our performance is actually pointing towards us achieving the low end of this guidance in 2024. In Q4, we expect sequentially lower costs. For reference, our C1 in September reached $18.2 per ton, excluding inventory effects. Now, moving to the energy transition metal business, we observed an overall decrease in our all-in costs year on year. In copper, the 13% year-on-year reduction was driven by higher unit by-product revenues and lower unit costs, resulting in an all-in cost below $3,000 per ton. As a result of this solid performance, in Q3, we are once again revising our 2024 all-in cost guidance downwards, with the new range being now between $2,900 and $3,300 per ton. In nickel, despite the consolidation of PTVI operations, which have lower average costs, all-in costs decreased by 3% year-on-year. We remain on track to meet our cost guidance for 2024. This improvement was a result of the ongoing ramp-up of Voisey's Bay operations, which allowed us to reduce third-party purchases in our Canadian refineries, coupled with higher unit by-product revenues. Now, moving on to cash generation, free cash flow generation was $0.2 billion, mostly impacted by lower EBITDA and negative working capital. We saw an increase in accounts receivables due to 14 million tons of iron ore sales accrued at the end of the quarter, as well as 23 million tons of sales that were booked at a forward price of $109 per ton. Our capital expenditures remain steady quarter-on-quarter at $1.3 billion, trading below our guidance for 2024 of approximately $6.5 billion. Lastly, our free cash flow generation and strong cash position were primarily used to return value to our shareholders, with the payment of $1.6 billion in interest on capital in September. In Q3, we also acquired the remaining stake in Aliança Energia. As we have previously mentioned, our intention is to look for potential partners for our energy assets while keeping a minority stake. We hope to be able to bring more news on this in the coming months. Before passing the floor back to Gustavo for the key takeaways, I would like to comment on the agreement we signed today. As Gustavo mentioned in his opening remarks, the agreement outlines the reparation and compensation measures related to the Samarco dam collapse. In addition to the BRL 38 billion disbursed since 2015, the agreement establishes BRL 100 billion in payment obligations over a period of 20 years and BRL 32 billion in performance obligations by Samarco, including initiatives for individual indemnification, resettlement, and environmental recovery. This table outlines our expectations of cash commitments. As you can see, in the short term, we will have a higher concentration of obligations to perform, and over time, the impact on cash will gradually reduce. This cash outflow projection considers that Samarco will continue to pay for a portion of the requirement payments as per its approved business plan. As such, we have recognized an extra provision of approximately $1 billion, bringing our expanded net debt to $16.5 billion. Regarding our optimal leverage targets, we are maintaining the $10 billion to $20 billion range under the same expanded net debt concepts. Now, I pass the floor to Gustavo.

Gustavo Pimenta, CEO

Thanks, Murilo. Before opening up for the Q&A session, I would like to reinforce the key messages from today's call. We remain highly focused on safety and operational excellence. As you have seen, we delivered a robust operational performance; the fourth consecutive quarter with year-on-year increases in iron ore production. We are accelerating our cost efficiency program, now expecting to reach the low end of our C1 guidance range for the year in iron ore, while lowering, once again, our all-in cost guidance for copper. I can assure you we will be laser-focused on our efficiency efforts in the years to come. On our strategic objectives to deliver a superior portfolio, we are progressing with our transformational projects. Vargem Grande started up in September on budget and ahead of schedule. Capanema will come online in the next months, providing us with further flexibility within our iron ore operations at a very low capital intensity. At VBM, the asset review execution is gradually bearing fruit with strong year-on-year operational performance at both copper and nickel. I'm very confident that under Shaun's leadership, we will continue to make substantial progress towards creating a leading energy transition metals business. Finally, today is an important day for Brazil, for Vale, and for the people impacted by the collapse of the Samarco Dam in Mariana. The signing of the definitive settlement for full reparation confirms that the Brazilian institutions are solid, competent, and legitimate for resolving our issues. The agreement also reinforces our commitment to the people, the communities, and the environment. Thank you all. And let's start the Q&A session.

Operator, Operator

We are going to start the question-and-answer session of the call. Our first question comes from Rodolfo Angele with J.P. Morgan. You can open your microphone.

Rodolfo Angele, Analyst

Okay, good afternoon, everyone, first of all. My first question goes to Gustavo, and Gustavo, I couldn't start without wishing you the best of luck in your tenure as the CEO. My question is, you touched on a few points around your ambitions as the new leader of the company in the beginning of the call. I understand that more details will be provided at the Vale Day, but I wonder if you could discuss with us a little bit more about what your short-term focus will be, which initiative you see that could represent the biggest opportunities to capture, especially in the earlier part of your tenure. So, that's my first question. And my second question, I also couldn't miss the opportunity to ask a question to Rogério, great to hear from you, I wanted to hear from you a little bit more about the portfolio strategy for iron ore that we're starting to hear more about. So, can you give us more details on what exactly you expect to be the next steps in that direction, what is the evolution of Vale's iron ore portfolio in the future? And that's it for me, thank you very much.

Gustavo Pimenta, CEO

Thanks, Rodolfo. Gustavo here. Thanks for the best wishes. Yes, look, I think the way we are thinking about it is under three key levers. One, in terms of portfolio, we've talked about it, but we are pushing hard to be able to resume the capacity that we think we can add in a very accretive way to our iron ore portfolio, getting it to 350 million tons, which will give us, more than the volumes, flexibility to operate under different market conditions, plus growing VBM, especially in copper. One of the key mandates that Shaun has is how can we bring copper volumes sooner, especially given the endowment that Vale has. So, that is going to be a key element of our strategy. And we will push that agenda forward in a very decisive way. The other one which is super important, and you've seen some of it already in this quarter, is to really drive a performance-oriented culture within Vale. We appreciated that we lost some competitiveness over the last years as a result of many things, including some of the constraints we had in our operations. But I'm very optimistic we'll be able to drive the company back into a much more competitive environment, lowering our C1. We talked about that, right, lowering our C1 below $20. So, we will push that agenda forward, and I'm very optimistic about our ability to deliver on that. The third one, which is probably a more short-term focus, is how can we continue to build strong and trustworthy relationships with the many stakeholders that we have. I'm very happy with the solution that we just announced regarding the settlement of Mariana as an element towards that future. I'm focused on resolving those issues because we know they weighed on the stock, and we're working very hard to resolve them. So, that agenda is going to be super important for me and my leadership team so we can bring the key stakeholders along our journey. So, with that, I'll pass to Rogério to go on the commercial strategy.

Rogério Nogueira, Acting Executive VP, Iron Ore Solutions

Hello, Rodolfo. Good to hear from you. I guess when we talk about portfolio strategy, we should divide it into short-term and long-term. In the short term, we will focus more on optimizing our product portfolio and maximizing value. In the long term, it has to do a lot with the decarbonization of the steel industry, and how we position ourselves to be the primary supplier for the decarbonized steelmaking industry. When we talk about portfolio optimization in the short term, we're focused on iron ore premiums. Our premiums depend a lot on steel margins, which are currently low, but based on our market outlook, we believe that there is potential upside. More specifically, I think understanding the total balance of Fe content, silica, alumina-to-silica ratio in the global market will be fundamental for quick portfolio adjustment. Today, we have very high silica penalties at $4.70 per ton for every percentage point of silica. So, we would like to work on reducing our offering of high-silica products, which will help mitigate that impact. Additionally, we might also take advantage of our higher production of high-quality pellet feed from Brucutu, Vargem Grande wet processing, and more production from Carajás. Ultimately, we believe that understanding the global market combined with our flexibility will allow us to optimize and maximize value in the short term. We are very much driven by value maximization and our flexible product portfolio.

Daniel Sasson, Analyst

Thank you. Thank you so much, everyone. Good luck on your new role, Gustavo. It's also good to hear you again, Rogério. My first question would be related to the... Congratulations on signing the agreement for the resettlement agreement for Samarco. Definitely a win-win situation for the populations and for Vale that can move ahead from this chapter. In regard to that, I'd like to know your perceptions, Gustavo, if anything has changed at all in regards to the discussions ongoing in the U.K. and the Netherlands related to the legal proceedings going on related to Samarco, if you could give us an update on that and also on the talks with the government related to the renewal of the railway concessions, I think that would be great. My second question would be related to your expanded net debt target. The $10 billion to $20 billion target was set at a different time for Vale, right? A lot of other things were going on, but maybe now that you will have a clearer view of your disbursements for Mariana, for instance, could you think about changing that target, if it makes sense at all to even discuss that, or if you remain comfortable with your $10 billion to $20 billion expanded net debt target for the time being? Thank you so much.

Gustavo Pimenta, CEO

Thank you, Daniel. Let me address a couple of items in your question, then I will ask Alex to complement, especially regarding the U.K. case. The decision to sign the agreement today is an important step, and we always believed, and I think today we are able to validate that, that the right jurisdiction for the settlement was in Brazil. We were able to successfully achieve that. So, we believe that is the right jurisdiction for these decisions. I'm happy with the outcome we've been able to achieve today. Regarding the renewal of the concession, we have advanced a lot on the potential agreement with the government, with the potential settlement. I'm optimistic we can finalize that item as well. There are some internal procedures and legal processes that need to be followed, so we are hopeful that by year-end we'll resolve that discussion. About the expanded net debt concept, it's early for us to revisit. The concept as designed served us well, and we believe it is the right one. For now, we are keeping it as is, but you can always revisit. Today, we think that's the right metric and range for us to operate under. I will ask Alex to elaborate on the U.K. case.

Alexandre D'Ambrosio, Executive VP, Corporate and External Affairs

Thank you, Gustavo, and thank you, Daniel, for the question. Let's start with the U.K. case. The trial on the U.K. case started last week, and many people are aware of that. It is ongoing for the next few weeks. The U.K. trial deals with compensation for individuals, but that issue itself will be discussed next year, so it is a long discussion still about whether BHP holding can be liable for Samarco. The issues being discussed about compensation in the U.K. are fully covered by the Brazil settlement that we signed today. For that reason, we understand that the position for the defendants will be much strengthened in the U.K. because the claimants will now have a streamlined settlement option in the Brazil agreement. Moreover, the Brazil agreement disproves the primary argument in the U.K., which was that these types of issues are not readily resolved in Brazil. The Netherlands claim will begin in the middle of next year, and the initial hearings in court will take place next year, with the issue of whether there is jurisdiction over Vale still to be addressed. So, that is a far-off road.

Leonardo Correa, Analyst

Good afternoon, everyone. So, a couple of questions on my side. The first one on cash costs for Iron Ore. Clearly significant progress over the past quarters. The message is that you guys are confident in reaching a low angle of guidance at $21. And Gustavo, you mentioned in your introduction that you're confident of reaching sub-$20 going forward. Just to try to get a bit of your sense: is this possible already in 2025? You have a series of initiatives. You also have volume gradually ramping up, a bit more volume. I just wanted to hear you on that front if those targets are achievable in 2025. My second question is on nickel, right? Specifically on the Energy Transition business, there clearly is a dual speed happening, right? I mean, copper, which is the focus, which needs to be the focus, super bright long-term. But on the nickel side of the business, clearly there's a tone down from Vale in the past quarters. Nickel prices haven't been helping, of course, but in this environment where EBITDA is negative on some lines and clearly there is room for some streamlining. I just wanted to hear your thoughts on what exactly you guys are thinking for nickel and whether capacity cuts are on the decks here considering this pressured environment. Thank you.

Gustavo Pimenta, CEO

Thanks, Leo. I will address the first one and a bit of the second one, but I also want to have Shaun share his insights since he’s on the line. In terms of cost, what I meant by coming below $20 is by 2026, which is the prior guidance we have given. The more I look into our cost base, the more confident I get about our ability to get to that point. This is a key priority for me. One thing we need to appreciate is several levers to get us to a more efficient position. Over the last couple of years, we’ve introduced several new processes to deal with restrictions in our operations. The team knows a lot more about how to manage those processes than they used to. We are seeing significant improvements in our ability to remove costs from the system just by operating better. There is the ramp-up in production. We just reset guidance to 323 to 330, with the aim for 350 with higher quality and some volume coming from the north, which will also help drive unit costs down. I'll stop here and let Shaun express his thoughts on nickel.

Shaun Usmar, CEO of Vale Base Metals

Sure, thanks, Leo. You have the distinction of being my first value-based metals question on an earnings call, so thank you. Gustavo has touched on the important points and I think we've gone through a quarterly high in terms of unit cost perspective with some of the maintenance on Sudbury, which was scheduled. Significant investments have occurred in this space. We have put in initiatives across the business from a productivity point of view with Mark Cutifani and the management team, resulting in 20 to 30% productivity improvements and many opportunities for fixed-cost dilution. This is a long-term capital deployment business. We see roughly 40% of the cost curve at the moment underwater, and supply is being curtailed in certain areas. We have a strategically significant business, particularly from a Western lens, with one of the best mineral endowments I’ve seen in my career. This business is underexplored and underutilized. The focus is to allocate capital wisely while driving cost reductions, productivity improvements, and maximizing value over the cycle. Importantly, let’s not lose sight that a substantial portion of this portfolio is polymetallic, which includes gold. At record prices, this phenomenon should continue, and we have underappreciated optionality to unlock. That's our job going forward to reveal that to the market.

Caio Ribeiro, Analyst

Great, thank you. Thank you for the opportunity. My first question is on cash return perspectives ahead. With the final agreement related to Mariana, the company still has its expanded net debt below $20 billion. Yet, the obligations of disbursement related to Mariana, Brumadinho, decharacterization, amount to nearly $3.7 billion over 2025, which reduces in a material way the company's free cash flow generation potential for that year. I know that from an expanded net debt perspective, the disbursements related to Mariana and Brumadinho should in theory be neutral. As you're disbursing the cash to cover those obligations, you reduce your provisioned amount, which is reflected in your expanded net debt. If we look at it solely from a free cash flow perspective, there is a cash disbursement related to those items that reduces the free cash flow yield that the company ultimately can deliver. So, my question is: will you look solely at your expanded net debt level in isolation to determine whether you can announce or announce an extraordinary dividend ahead, or will you also consider that free cash flow yield incorporating those obligations related to Mariana, Brumadinho, and decharacterization to make that decision? My second question is on a different topic here. Vale had the JV structure with Ero Copper, the Furnas project, which depends on exploratory success. You also have that fund established to further develop these types of partnerships. So, my question is: other than for copper assets, could you use that model of partnerships and JVs for iron ore as well within Brazil? Thank you.

Gustavo Pimenta, CEO

Okay. Starting with the expanded net debt concept, right? We always look at the free cash flow projection for the company under different scenarios to make that assessment. We judge how we allocate our capital right. The net debt or the expanded net debt concept is one of the elements, but we look into others, especially where the expected cash flow generation of the company is compared to the commitments we have. If we find an opportunity to remunerate our shareholders, we will do so as we have been doing over the years. That is how we look at several variables before making those decisions. In terms of partnerships and funds, these are transactions where we can accelerate our access to offtake and volume where it makes sense for Vale, to partner rather than going it alone, and we can still benefit from those partnerships. We do ourselves in most cases, especially in VBM. In iron ore, I think there’s less of that opportunity. We've engaged in some what we call mini-minas; mini mines, those are smaller mines where we don't think we are as competitive as our competitors in developing, so we pursue commercial agreements for access to those volumes, especially higher quality materials. We will continue to consider that, but it's probably under a different format compared to what we do with base metals.

Rafael Barcellos, Analyst

Hello. Thanks for taking my questions. And, of course, good luck, Gustavo. Congratulations for the results and for the definitive settlement. Also, Rogério, good to hear from you again. My first question, Gustavo, could you please share with us your thoughts on how the regulatory environment for mining activity in Brazil is evolving? Other than that, how are the discussions related to a new cave decree in Brazil or even the modernization of these cave regulations and, of course, whether you believe that it could happen in the coming years? My second question is about the base metals vision; this is Shaun's first conference call at Vale, Shaun, good luck. If you could share with us your first impressions of the many opportunities that you see at Vale Base Metals, I mean it could be very interesting? Thank you.

Gustavo Pimenta, CEO

Thanks, Rafael. Let me do the first one, and then Shaun can step in. As you know, Brazil has enormous potential in terms of mineral resources. Not only do we have the highest quality iron ore on the planet, but we also have a lot of deposits for our Energy Transition Metals commodities. In our push, our discussion has centered around how we can accelerate those developments as a country. Many of these require discussion and modernization of, for example, the cave decree, and I think there is a recognition that the current legislation can be improved by all parties. We are hopeful this issue will be addressed in the near future, hopefully sooner rather than later, as this would be critical for unlocking the potential in the country and for Vale’s growth on those commodities. I will pass to Shaun for the second question.

Shaun Usmar, CEO of Vale Base Metals

Rafael, thank you for the question. The vision, after three-and-a-half weeks, is very similar to the reason I took on this opportunity with Vale Base Metals, which is that I believe it's one of the most underappreciated assets in the battery metals or energy metals space. If you're building a business like this, one of the biggest barriers is ultimately the mineral endowment; it all starts with the geology. I spent three days with the GMs and some business leaders last week, and I walked away from that time exceeding my most optimistic assumptions regarding the potential. We are looking to allocate capital and run this business as efficiently as we can. Gustavo has already pointed out that particularly in Brazil, everybody loves copper; it's tough to find high-quality copper assets. This business has an underappreciated and incredible mineral endowment in Brazil. Beyond this, we're working to see if we can remove constraints to unlock opportunities with the government and other stakeholders regarding this mineral potential. We have established businesses like Salobo and Sossego; Salobo has opened at depth and in various directions. We have many opportunities in that district looking at hubs and other possibilities to unlock that mineral wealth. The focus should be on unlocking productivity, cost, and maximizing value for this business throughout the cycle. There's a significant amount of underappreciated optionality to reveal to the market. That's our job going forward.

Marina Calero, Analyst

Good afternoon. Thanks for the call. I have a follow-up question about your corporate strategy. Is it fair to assume that you are focused on your internal growth opportunities, or would you be open to grow inorganically as well?

Gustavo Pimenta, CEO

Thanks, Marina. Go ahead, Shaun.

Shaun Usmar, CEO of Vale Base Metals

Marina, thank you. When I come from businesses that have grown through M&A, we always evaluate the landscape for opportunities through a make or buy lens. However, we have tremendous value and opportunities within the existing portfolio. For the foreseeable future, while we will keep an eye on market opportunities, we believe we have a lot of what the market is searching for. It’s our responsibility to demonstrate and unlock that value, which I think is currently invisible. With what we have, we have to maximize it.

Gustavo Pimenta, CEO

I would just complement and echo Shaun’s view, especially considering where we trade at currently. It’s challenging to find any transactions that would make sense for our shareholders. Our unique advantage lies within our endowment in both base metals and iron ore. We can create significant value for shareholders by developing our own resources. There are times where we share infrastructure and do deals that benefit both parties, similar to our recent transaction at Minas-Rio. Those capital-light deals make sense to us. Large deals or things that deviate from that model are harder for us right now, and I’d prefer to focus on our own development.

Timna Tanners, Analyst

Yes, thanks. Good afternoon. Happy Friday. I wanted to start by asking about CapEx just because, as you mentioned in the bridge, there's a gap or a large amount that needs to be spent to meet your target in Q4. Is that happening, or should we think about potentially lighter spend? A bigger-picture question I had was just about the comment I heard earlier about how you had confidence that global steel margins would rebound. I’d love to get your high-level thinking in light of the property sector challenges. Thanks.

Gustavo Pimenta, CEO

Hey, Timna. Happy Friday! We are looking to close the year within the guidance of around $6.3 billion to $6.5 billion. It’s looking very much in line with what we had guided throughout the year. There are always variances within quarters, but look at that full year as the final number we’re expecting to deliver in 2024. I’ll pass to Rogério to discuss margins.

Rogério Nogueira, Acting Executive VP, Iron Ore Solutions

Hi, Timna. When assessing the iron ore market, we believe it will stabilize but see potential upsides. Globally, we’re projecting crude steel production to reach 1.9 billion tons, with over 1 billion tons coming from China in both 2024 and 2025. The Chinese government is actively working to boost consumer confidence through fiscal and monetary stimulus, which we believe will stabilize steel consumption. The decline in fixed asset investments in the property sector may be offset by investments in manufacturing and infrastructure. We expect a stable iron ore supply balance, and while high inventory levels exist at ports, steel mills maintain very low levels. Overall, we see stability across inventory levels. In the short term, we have positive data indicating increased blast furnace utilization rates to 87%. Steel margins are recovering with rebar prices up about $20 per ton and more balanced conditions beyond that.

Christopher LaFemina, Analyst

Thank you for taking my question. This is a follow-up to what Timna just asked. Historically, Vale has taken higher cost, lower margin capacity offline, implementing a value over volume strategy that has positively impacted the market. If you're shifting your production mix to higher-quality, higher-margin ore, does that imply that prices would have to fall much lower before you take capacity offline? In a declining iron ore market, when demand decreases, when do we start seeing supply responses in the future? With your cost reductions and Simandou coming online, I’m concerned that it could be below the $90 to $100 mark. Where is the downside long-term?

Gustavo Pimenta, CEO

Let me cover a few elements and then Rogério can add if needed. The critical realization is that despite Simandou’s introduction, depletion in the market remains significant, and so does the degradation from our competitors. This is often overlooked. This is why I am not overly negative on the long-term impact of Simandou. We will continue to prioritize a value-over-volume strategy. By resuming capacity, we can gain flexibility back, which we've lost in recent years. With initiatives like Vargem Grande and Capanema, we should be able to maintain flexibility to maneuver under various market conditions. We could have exceeded 330 million tons but have chosen to remove about 7 to 8 million tons of high-silica products from the market this year because it wouldn’t suit the overall market. We remain disciplined about how we add volume to the market.

Jon Brandt, Analyst

Just one question for me, as it relates to your overall metals portfolio. If we look over the past 20 years, Vale has really transformed into three main metals from many more. Recently, some of your competitors may have engaged in M&A to expand into lithium or fertilizers. So, are you satisfied with your portfolio of iron ore, nickel, and copper? Would you look to add lithium, fertilizers, or potentially uranium in the next five to ten years?

Gustavo Pimenta, CEO

Hey, Jon. Gustavo here. We are satisfied with our existing portfolio. I would certainly like to have more copper than we currently possess, and we'll be working on enhancing that. If we consider adding anything, it must have scale and be well-positioned competitively. Presently, the commodities we have allow us to create value. Our main concern is about value creation. We are happy with the existing commodities and constantly evaluate alternatives and opportunities, but we are satisfied with our current lineup. It is about how we can continue to grow them.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's question-and-answer session. Vale's conference is now concluded. We thank you for your participation and wish you a nice day.

Gustavo Pimenta, CEO

Hey, guys, Shaun, Rogério, thank you so much. I don't know if you guys are still there, but thank you.

Shaun Usmar, CEO of Vale Base Metals

Thank you, Gustavo. Thank you.

Rogério Nogueira, Acting Executive VP, Iron Ore Solutions

Thank you.