Earnings Call Transcript - VOYA Q3 2024

Mei Ni C., Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, and good morning. We appreciate you joining us this morning for Voya Financial's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, materials for today's call are available on our website at investors.voya.com. Joining me on our call this morning are Heather Lavallee, our Chief Executive Officer; and Don Templin, our Chief Financial Officer. Following their remarks, we will take your questions. For the Q&A session, we will also be joined by our incoming CFO, Mike Katz, and the heads of our businesses, specifically Rob Grubka, CEO of Workplace Solutions; and Matt Thomas, CEO of Investment Management. Turning to our earnings presentation materials that are available on our website. On Slide 2, some of the comments during today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements and refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures within the meaning of federal securities law. GAAP reconciliations are available in our press release and financial supplement found in our Investor Relations website. And now I will turn the call over to Heather.

Heather Lavallee, CEO

Thank you, Mei Ni. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Turning to Slide 4 for our key themes for the quarter. First, we delivered strong business results in Wealth Solutions and Investment Management this quarter, this is the outcome of actions we've implemented throughout the year to drive stronger than expected revenue and margin improvement. Second, adverse Stop Loss results led to a disappointing result in Health Solutions. We are actively repricing the Stop Loss business to materially improve margins next year. Third, we are on track to close our acquisition of OneAmerica's full service retirement business on January 1. This is an outstanding transaction for Voya, both in terms of strategic fit and financial attractiveness. Finally, we continue to deliver strong free cash flows. We remain on track to return $800 million in excess capital to shareholders in 2024 and are well-positioned to significantly improve excess capital generation in 2025. Turning to third quarter results on Slide 5. We reported adjusted operating EPS of $1.90. Our EPS is 9% higher compared to the third quarter of 2023 supported by almost 20% growth in Wealth Solutions and more than 10% growth in Investment Management earnings. Strength in Wealth and Investment Management was offset by adverse Stop Loss results in the quarter. In retrospect, we underpriced our 2024 book, which has resulted in the elevated loss ratios we are experiencing this year. We are taking decisive actions to address weakness in the business. Don and I will provide more details in a few moments. In Wealth Solutions, revenue growth and adjusted operating margin are on pace to be above our 2024 target. Underlying commercial momentum across key full-service segments continue to build in the quarter, but we had full-service net outflows, participants surrender rates were within expectations and full-service sales are up 25% year-over-year, at the highest level we've delivered since the fourth quarter 2022. Reported outflows were largely driven by higher average account values that have resulted from the recent run-up in equity markets. In the mid-market, this year's known sales are already significantly higher than total sales in 2023, and we continue to maintain market-leading positions in the government markets by participants and assets. Voya Investment Management delivered a third consecutive quarter of positive net flows exceeding our organic growth target for the year. Our continuing strength in institutional fixed income and further expansion within the third-party insurance channel have been key drivers of net inflows in 2024. And our growth in retail markets continues to build with net inflows across both domestic and international channels. In both Wealth and Investment Management, we have grown margins year-over-year. As shown on the slide, this quarter's disappointing health results takes us off course from achieving our full year EPS target. Despite this adversity, positive results and our other businesses keep us on track to return $800 million to shareholders this year. Turning to Slide 6. Our top priority in the immediate term is to significantly improve stop loss margins. We are prioritizing higher margins over premium growth for the 2025 book. We are executing on substantial rate increases across both renewals and new business. Don will provide more specific details in his remarks. We are also focused on integrating the OneAmerica business. We remain on track to close on January 1. Our execution on these 2 key priorities, combined with our continued emphasis on profitable growth, will allow us to generate even higher levels of excess capital in 2025, and we continue to execute on the investments that will drive our future growth. As our retirement participant base continues to expand, we are extending our presence and reach in the Workplace and growing out-of-plan assets and revenues. Retail client assets were up over 20% year-over-year, as we continue to invest in this model and build our team. And as we told you last quarter, we are making strategic investments in lead management that will enhance our competitive position in group life and voluntary. We are on track to launch our new solution early next year. Turning to Slide 7. In September, we announced our acquisition of OneAmerica's retirement business. This transaction is both strategically important and financially accretive. The acquisition has meaningful scale to our retirement platform, a broader set of strategic capabilities and new opportunities for distribution partnerships. The transaction will deliver at least $75 million of pretax operating earnings and over $200 million of net revenue in the first year. OneAmerica's significant presence in the emerging and mid-market segments advances our strategy to increase market share and grow our full service retirement business, further defining our position as a leading retirement provider across all market segments and tax code. We are thrilled to welcome the talented team from OneAmerica to Voya. Turning to Slide 8. Determined actions we are taking to execute on our key priorities will expand free cash flows in 2025 and beyond the levels we're delivering this year. We expect that Stop Loss repricing, the OneAmerica acquisition and continued profitable growth across our businesses will significantly increase our excess capital generation in 2025.

Don Templin, CFO

Thank you, Heather. Let's turn to our results on Slide 10. We delivered $1.90 of adjusted operating earnings per share in the third quarter, 9% higher than the prior year. This includes the effect of alternative and prepayment income, which was $0.22 below our long-term expectations. Although these returns are below our long-term target, our high-quality portfolio of alternative investments continues to deliver positive returns. Fee revenues increased year-over-year in Wealth and Investment Management. This is a result of continuing commercial momentum and strong equity markets. Improved margins in Wealth reflect the actions we've taken to enhance spread income. This has helped to support approximately $200 million of capital generation in the quarter despite unfavorable Stop Loss experience in Health. Third quarter GAAP net income was below adjusted operating earnings due primarily to non-cash items. Moving to Health on Slide 11. Given our key near-term priority to significantly improve margins and Stop Loss, I want to start by addressing our Health results. As Heather discussed, the January 2024 business was executed at rates that were too low. The very favorable performance of the 2022 business influenced the underwriting for both the 2023 and 2024 blocks of business. This resulted in expected loss ratios at the high end of our target range in 2023 and above our targets in 2024. Higher frequency across most claim categories is driving the increase in expected loss ratio for the 2024 block. While disappointing, experiencing the elevated claim trends now has enabled us to adjust pricing on the January 2025 business we are currently underwriting. Turning to Slide 12. We are prioritizing margin over in-force premium growth and are actively pursuing higher rate increases for the January 2025 book. We were able to achieve significantly higher rates for the non-January 2024 business. This gives us confidence in doing the same for the January 2025 business. Prioritizing margins over growth in the non-January 2024 business resulted in our non-January premium declining by 2%. We are targeting average rate increases of 100% or 2 times prior year levels for the January 2025 renewals. This includes a focus on retaining cases that are performing well while ensuring we improve margins on underperforming blocks. We have also increased our targets on new business pricing, prioritizing margin over in-force premium growth. Because we are prioritizing higher rates, we do expect lower sales and in-force premium year-over-year for the January 2025 book. We will share more on our fourth quarter call on how sales and renewals finish up. We are confident that our pricing and underwriting actions will significantly improve net underwriting results next year. Turning to Slide 13. Adjusted operating earnings in Health were $23 million in the third quarter. Results are lower primarily due to unfavorable loss ratio developments in Stop Loss. The unfavorable Stop Loss results have also impacted adjusted operating margin. While we are not satisfied with our results, we are confident the actions we are taking will meaningfully improve profitability in 2025.

Ryan Krueger, Analyst

Hi, good morning. My first question is about Stop Loss. Could you elaborate on the underlying claims trends you are observing and what level of loss inflation you have factored into the 80% loss pick for 2024?

Heather Lavallee, CEO

Ryan, it's Heather. Let me begin by saying that we are disappointed with our Stop Loss results, which have overshadowed the impressive performance in our Wealth and Investment Management business, as well as our capital return efforts for the year. To address your question specifically, as we examine how claims have unfolded this year, we originally projected a loss ratio between 80% and 83% in the second quarter. This estimate was based on our pricing assumptions, the status of the 2023 book of business, and the fact that paid claims for the 2024 book were only 12% complete at that time. Now that we are at the end of the third quarter, claims are about one-third complete, and we've noticed an increase in claims across all categories, which has influenced our reserve assumptions. As Don mentioned, we are actively repricing our book of business, considering medical trends. The initial dollar medical trend is estimated to be between 8% and 9%, which is incorporated into our pricing, along with additional leverage. We are seeking substantially higher rate increases for both renewals and new business, prioritizing margin improvement over premium growth. Ultimately, we are confident in our ability to significantly enhance underwriting margins for this block.

Michael Katz, Incoming CFO

Yes, Ryan, this is Mike. Thanks for your question. So we're absolutely targeting the 77% to 80% as what we're going for in this pricing season as Heather just mentioned, we are targeting over two times rate increase on the renewals and obviously much higher on new business. Maybe just a few things to think about as you try to understand 2025. As Don mentioned in his comments, when you look at the non-January business, we were able to get a 75% higher rate increase on that particular block. That resulted in an in-force premium reduction of approximately 2%. Now I don't want the listeners to conflate what we're shooting for on non-January and the January 2025. We got what we're aiming for as it relates to non-January, the non-January book, which is different. You can also go back to 2017 into 2018, which was another example where we needed to go out and get rate and we were able to do that. That resulted in an in-force premium reduction of approximately 5%. Now that's specific to the January business. It was roughly flat for the full year '17 into '18. A little bit different this time is that then it was a bit more of a Voya issue versus an industry issue. So just stepping back, I think it is very reasonable to think that premium will likely be down in Stop Loss for 2025. As Heather just mentioned, we fully understand that the margin is what drives the bottom-line results, and that's why we're super focused on that and why we're confident in the material improvement in cash generation next year.

Wes Carmichael, Analyst

Hi, good morning. I had a question on OneAmerica. It looks like your financial targets remain unchanged versus the announcement. But I believe part of that book was up for renewal recently. I just wanted to understand if there's any change in your thinking regarding retention or higher lapses on that business.

Michael Katz, Incoming CFO

Good morning Wes, it's Mike. Thanks for the question. Yes, $75 million is unchanged. It does affect for higher lapses. So we typically will see and Don mentioned this in his remarks that we're retaining approximately 98% of the plans in wealth, which is a very strong result. We do expect lower persistency for the OneAmerica business. I would think approximately around 90% is what's embedded in that $75 million. I might remind though, that as we talked about in the announcement, the technology that we're moving this business on. So the technology OneAmerica has is the same technology we have. And so that should help in the transition. That should help in the persistency. And then finally, as we've structured this deal with an earn-out and that earn-out protects from a retention perspective as well. So to the extent that retention is lighter than what we might have hoped for the $160 billion earn-out would do the same. And so we feel like we got the right protections. We like how we're transitioning the business onto similar technology, and we believe we've got the right lapse assumption baked into the $75 million.

Heather Lavallee, CEO

Yes. And Wes, if I can just add, it's Heather, on the OneAmerica we're super excited about this from a strategic perspective. And one of the things we really liked about the OneAmerica book of business is they have very, very high service levels, a great reputation in the market, and they already had a roadmap in place to be able to enhance some of their digital tools for participants, which we're going to be able to accelerate that for them by bringing them on the platform. So we couldn't be more excited to welcome the OneAmerica clients and welcome the talented OneAmerica team in January.

Michael Katz, Incoming CFO

Yes, it's a bit early to discuss the guidance for 2025 and beyond. We are currently in the planning stage. As mentioned in the materials, there are three key points to consider. First, regarding OneAmerica, we expect it to contribute $75 million in earnings next year. Second, we anticipate normal organic growth from both investment management and Wealth Solutions. Lastly, we are currently focusing on repricing in health solutions, which we believe will significantly enhance our cash generation and earnings per share. These three factors will influence our outlook for 2025, and we will provide more specifics in the Q4 call.

Justin Moreno, Analyst

Hi, everyone. This is Justin on for Alex. My first question, I just had a quick question on the Investment Management segment. I was wondering if you can provide any updates on sort of how the distribution expansion from the Allianz partnership has been developing. And as an addition, if you can sort of break out how we should think about that 3.2% organic split across US and international is available?

Matt Toms, CEO of Investment Management

Thanks, Justin. This is Matt. I'm happy with the overall flow picture. Starting with the $3.8 billion, it's exciting to anticipate building that to $9.2 billion, exceeding our organic growth target of 2%, as we're actually seeing growth at over 3%. The strength in our international retail channels, which you've mentioned, is noteworthy. We have a strong income and growth franchise that resonates well internationally, and we aim to expand that in the US as well. This is a key part of our international strategy. On a global scale, there is significant demand for dollar-based fixed income, and we have robust capabilities in that area. We're expecting growth in the second half of 2024, with more opportunities likely in 2025. Broader flows across channels, particularly in insurance and US intermediaries, remain strong, contributing to our year-to-date figure of over $9 billion. Our investment platform, including fixed income, private assets, and multi-assets, is driving that growth and contributing to margin expansion, so I'm quite pleased with the outcome.

Justin Moreno, Analyst

Thank you. And if I can just ask a quick follow-up. I was wondering if you can sort of comment on the pipeline for net flows in the wealth solutions business as well, maybe across corporate tax-exempt and record keeping.

Rob Grubka, CEO of Workplace Solutions

Yes, sure. So in the Wealth business, as we've guided here over the last couple of quarters, we're going to come in a little bit light because of what we've seen in the equity markets. As we think about the commercial momentum, though what I'd really point you out is the 39% increase in the transfer deposit row, in the supplemental materials. So we feel really good about that and emerging. That's translated in 25% growth in sales. As we've talked about for a couple of quarters here, the growth in the mid-market has been really strong at 4 times versus prior year, and we maintain a lot of momentum within the government space. As we think about forward view, working really hard to turn that to positive flow in full service and expect to do that next year as we think about recordkeeping. We'll have a really strong fourth quarter. We didn't put that in the material, but we'll be close to the $3 billion guide that we've given previously. And as we look ahead again, a really strong pipeline and expect to put on a really strong participant growth as we look into '25. So I think on flow perspective, the go-forward view, we feel good about the things that we're seeing and come into the system.

Heather Lavallee, CEO

And just to build on Rob's point, for a second, if I can, not only do we feel good about the commercial momentum that is building, but as you think about the very, very strong earnings and margin we're able to deliver this year, that's one we are just incredibly proud of the team.

Joel Hurwitz, Analyst

First, I just wanted to follow up on the Walt pipeline. Don, did I hear you say you expect 15% participant growth in Walt next year, excluding OneAmerica? And if so, just how much of that is record keeping versus full service?

Rob Grubka, CEO of Workplace Solutions

Yes. This is Rob. I'll chime in on that one. I won't split it out for you. Certainly, a meaningful part of it is record keeping, just given the size difference in how you would think about full service versus recordkeeping. But it's momentum in both segments. It's just representative of the different size of cases that come in. And we feel really good, obviously, as we think about the expense discipline that we've had the ability to bring on and contain the participant growth that we've had over the last number of years being in that 6% range as we think about how we position ourselves from a technology perspective. We've done a lot of work over the last few years to bring scale and capability not only helping us deal with organic growth but also integrate OneAmerica in a really thoughtful, disciplined way. And I would say a quick way. So the team is very focused on how we do that and manage expenses in a really disciplined way as we look forward. But the growth, I think is something to be really proud of. We got to execute against that, but we feel like we're really well positioned to do that into the future.

Suneet Kamath, Analyst

Hi, thanks good morning. Starting with the Stop Loss. Mike, I think you had made a comment in one of your answers earlier, thinking back to that 2017 and '18 experience. And I think you referred to it as sort of a Voya-specific issue that you're dealing with. Is what you're seeing now more of a similar sort of thing where it's Voya specific? Or do you think this is sort of an industry-wide issue because I think that would have implications for your ability to reprice but also grow the top-line. Thanks.

Heather Lavallee, CEO

Yes, Suneet, it's Heather. Let me start on that one. If you reflect on 2018 and 2017, we believe it was somewhat more specific to Voya, but the main message is our capability to successfully manage a significant increase in the book in 2018. This ultimately provides us with the confidence to execute again. Furthermore, as a reminder, we have a long history of effectively managing this book very profitably and consistently meeting our loss ratio targets over an extended period. Regarding this year, as we mentioned, there are two main factors. Firstly, we underpriced the 2024 book of business, and we are actively working to address that. Secondly, we are experiencing elevated claims, which we believe, as Rob pointed out, is more of an industry-wide concern at the moment. We are noticing an increase in claims and the associated costs due to inflation affecting medical expenses. Finally, responding to your earlier question, Tom, we are appropriately considering these factors in our repricing efforts, giving us confidence to improve the underwriting margin and get our loss ratios back within our target range, hopefully by 2025.

Ryan Krueger, Analyst

Thanks. And then do you think the loss ratio will likely still be above your 77% to 80% target in 2025? Or are you optimistic you could get back to the target with the pricing actions?

Rob Grubka, CEO of Workplace Solutions

Yes. Well, look, there's obviously a number of variables to take into consideration when we think about getting to margin commission and expense around the distribution of the products is an element. Obviously, we continue to as we scale, do that efficiently and effectively from an overall expense perspective as well. That's a business where we've got scale. We take advantage of that scale and discipline around the expense operational piece of it as well. Again, our view is the 77% to 80% is where we are going to strive to get to and expect to get to. So those are market dynamics that are always going on the ebb and flow of distribution partners and what their expectations are. Those are things we've managed for a number of years. And frankly, we do it across all the corridors is doing; there's always an ebb and flow involved.

Tom Gallagher, Analyst

Thanks. I have a few quick questions about Stop Loss. Regarding the competitive environment, do you believe you can implement double the rate increase while only experiencing single-digit declines in revenue, as suggested by your observations from the middle of 2024? Given what you are noticing in terms of pricing and the current situation, do you think it will be relatively similar?

Rob Grubka, CEO of Workplace Solutions

Yes, certainly, Tom. As we look at it, obviously every year is a little bit unique, and this is certainly set up for a unique challenge just given the severity of what we are seeing. It honestly helps when you think about the cases that are the worst performing. There's data, as we talked about, and just underscore the fact that things have turned quickly as we're sitting here today, we've got a lot of ability to build that into our pricing and the actions that we are taking. Does it make it easy, but it makes it really clear of why we're going after the rate we're going after and why it gives us confidence as we also think about balancing the book of business, things that are maybe running more poorly versus the things that are running within expectations. Obviously, there's a balance there. And I think as Mike alluded to, the expectation on modest impact of the book of business is how we're seeing it and how we feel like given the market interactions we're having today.

Michael Katz, Incoming CFO

Hi, Tom, look, there's claims that are going to come in. So there are estimates. These are best estimates. But if we land in the 86% range, the rating increases that Don, Heather, and Rob have been talking about, we have a lot of confidence we would be back in that target. So now we need to get through the renewals, we need to get through the pricing. We need to see how that lands. I think to your question on what happens to the premium, as Rob suggested, I think it's reasonable to expect a modest decline, but we're halfway through. So more to come, but I think it lands in that 86% range, then what we’re targeting is a very rational place to land in calendar year 2025.

Wilma Burdis, Analyst

Hi, good morning. I think Tom just asked my question, but I wanted to clarify a little bit. When you mention the 86% Stop Loss ratio, is that for policy year 2024? Does that mean it extends through the first half of 2025? How should we think about that? Also, regarding the premiums, you mentioned they might be slightly lower in 2025. Is that the right way to interpret it?

Michael Katz, Incoming CFO

Hi, Will, it's Mike again. So yes, I think you're thinking about it right, just with respect to the premium piece. We try to give a bit of color on what happened in January and what happened back in '17 into '18 that gives us the confidence as well as just what's happening right now as we're moving through the pricing season. The other piece that we've done in the investor supplement is to give you a sense, not only what's happening with Stop Loss in the particular quarter, but how do all the different cohorts come into play. So you'll be able to see for non-January and January, all three, 2022, 2023, 2024. And so when we're talking about the 86%, that's on the January 2024 business. That now if you factor in non-January, it kind of gets you to a similar place, but we're trying to be very specific about this January 2024 business. And why is that? That's the business we're actively repricing right now. We feel we got the success we needed on that non-January 2023 coming into non-January 2024. And next up is that January 2025 business. And right now, we believe that we can get the rate increases that drive that meaningful improvement in cash generation next year, and that will be off kind of the best pick of 86%, which we have for the January 2024 business right now.

Don Templin, CFO

Thanks, Wilma. I'll start on incoming growth. And you'll notice in the performance materials provided some change in the short-term performance there. I want to call out what drives that. So the income and growth strategy competes versus a peer group that is much less homogeneous than many other spaces. That's actually part of its success. But if you think about that strategy, it's a blend of one-third convertible bonds, one-third high-yield bonds and one-third equity. This product will inherently have a lower equity beta during a rally like that we've seen, but it continues the product to have a very high distribution rate. And this is the income generation is the key characteristic for the product. Longer term, of course, the product is performing extremely well with top decile performance relative to peers. So very happy about that. That continues. And that performance and that income generation is what resonates and what has helped to continue to build the flows in the product for the earlier question, that is a key part of our success internationally in partnership with Allianz. Allianz more broadly, we appreciate the partnership we have with Allianz and Allianz GI, both today and into the future, just to be clear, these world-class investment solutions meet a very specific client need. And we both enjoyed that since the 2022 transaction. To put a finer point on it, income and growth is important as our thematic equities but also a building array of fixed income products globally, both public and private where we have momentum today, but we really have excitement about the future path, and we look forward to continuing that growth together.

Suneet Kamath, Analyst

Hi, thanks good morning. Starting with the Stop Loss. Mike, I think you had made a comment in one of your answers earlier, thinking back to that 2017 and '18 experience. And I think you referred to it as sort of a Voya-specific issue that you're dealing with. Is what you're seeing now more of a similar sort of thing where it's Voya specific? Or do you think this is sort of an industry-wide issue because I think that would have implications for your ability to reprice but also grow the top-line. Thanks.

Heather Lavallee, CEO

Yes, Suneet, it's Heather. Let me start on that one. If you think back to 2018 and 2017, we believe it was more specific to Voya, but the key message was our success in navigating a double increase on the book in 2018. This success gives us confidence to execute again. We have a long history of managing this book of business profitably while meeting our loss ratio targets over time. For this year, there are two main factors. First, we underpriced the '24 book of business, which we are actively addressing. Second, we are experiencing elevated claims, which we believe, as Rob mentioned, is more of an industry-wide issue right now. We are seeing higher claims and costs due to inflation affecting medical expenses. Lastly, related to your question, we are appropriately incorporating these factors into our repricing efforts, which gives us confidence to improve our underwriting margin and ultimately bring our loss ratios back within our target range, hopefully by 2025.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Our first question is from Ryan Krueger with KBW. Please proceed.

Josh Shanker, Analyst

Yeah, thanks for the question. Unfortunately, another Stop Loss question. I just want to talk about your market share or your unit volume gains in 2024, given what you said was underpricing. Did it help you grow in 2024 as you took share from your competitors?

Rob Grubka, CEO of Workplace Solutions

Thank you, Josh. As Heather mentioned, we didn't achieve our rate targets, which is evident from the loss ratios we are experiencing. In considering what we could have done differently, the volume we saw from new sales was significantly higher than our previous growth rates. While we've been growing rapidly, this surge was faster than what we've encountered before, and we certainly wish we could revisit that decision. Regarding renewals, the strong performance in 2022 contrasted with the developments in 2023, which came later in the year. We would have preferred to have had that information earlier, but that’s how the business and claims evolution happens. These factors contributed to our inability to secure the necessary rate adjustments. Did this increase our volume? Yes. Currently, we are utilizing our book size and scale effectively. At the same time, we are applying insights from the claims data to inform our strategies, as Mike, Heather, and I have discussed.

Operator, Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference call back over to Heather Lavallee for any closing remarks.

Heather Lavallee, CEO

Thank you. I'd like to thank everyone for joining us today. And on the next quarter call, we're going to continue to update you on our near-term priorities around improving the Stop Loss margin, closing the OneAmerica deal, and continuing to drive the profitable growth we've been generating across our core businesses. Thank you for joining us, and have a great day.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.