Earnings Call Transcript
Valvoline Inc (VVV)
Earnings Call Transcript - VVV Q4 2022
Operator, Operator
Thank you all for being here. Welcome to Valvoline's Q4 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. I will now hand it over to your host, Sean Cornett, from Investor Relations. Please proceed when you're ready, Sean.
Sean Cornett, Investor Relations
Thanks. Good morning, and welcome to Valvoline's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022 Conference Call and Webcast. On November 15, 2022, at approximately 7:00 a.m. Eastern Time, Valvoline released results for the fiscal year and fourth quarter ended September 30, 2022. This presentation should be viewed in conjunction with that earnings release, a copy of which is available on our Investor Relations website at investors.valvoline.com. Please note that these results are preliminary until we file our Form 10-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission. On this morning's call is Sam Mitchell, our CEO; Lori Flees, our President of Retail Services; and Mary Meixelsperger, our CFO. As shown on Slide 2, any of our remarks today that are not statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions as of the date of this presentation and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. Valvoline assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements unless required by law. In this presentation and in our remarks, we will be discussing our results on an adjusted non-GAAP basis unless otherwise noted. Non-GAAP results are adjusted for key items, which are unusual, non-operational or restructuring in nature. We believe this approach enhances the understanding of our ongoing business. Reconciliation of our adjusted non-GAAP results to amounts reported under GAAP and a discussion of management's use of non-GAAP and key business measures included in the presentation appendix. This information provided is used by our management and may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies. The announcement that Valvoline signed a definitive agreement to sell its Global Products business resulted in the former Global Products segment being classified as discontinued operations for purposes of GAAP reporting, with the Retail Services segment coming to the company's continuing operations. Results of continuing operations are comparable to those previously discussed on a pro forma basis at the time of the announcement. On Slide 3, you'll see the agenda for today's call. We'll start with an update on the sale of Global Products that we announced in August and an introduction to the post-transaction Valvoline, where our company will be focused fully on retail services. We will then talk about our growth strategy for the business and end with a review of fourth quarter and full year results and guidance. I'd like to turn the call over to Sam.
Samuel Mitchell, CEO
Thanks, Sean, and thank you all for joining us today. The sale of Global Products marks the completion of Valvoline's transformation from a complex story with two very different businesses into a simple pure-play retail services business that is best in class in the industry. Valvoline's Global Products and Retail Services are two differentiated businesses that have their own investment attributes, growth and profit drivers, and strategic priorities. With the success of our retail strategy over the past several years, retail services has grown to a point where it can thrive as an independent business. Today's call will focus largely on retail services, including our strategy for growth and value creation. The new Valvoline is a high-growth, high-margin, less capital-intensive business that has less operating risk given the high percentage of franchise stores. We will have a focused capital structure and capital allocation strategy. This will drive the ability to make more targeted investments to capture opportunities in an evolving car park, including the growth of electric vehicles. At the same time, investors will benefit from increased transparency and clarity due to the simple nature of our new business model. Our team has been hard at work to complete the separation. We continue to anticipate the closing will occur in early calendar 2023. Total proceeds from the transaction will be $2.65 billion in cash and approximately $2.25 billion net proceeds. We intend to use the majority of the anticipated net proceeds to accelerate the return of capital to shareholders through share repurchases, with the remaining portion used for debt reduction. Today, we announced the Board's authorization of a $1.6 billion share repurchase to effectuate this return, with the goal to complete the share repurchases within 18 months. Turning to Slide 6. Let's look at the new Valvoline. We have a 150-year history and one of the world's most recognized brands, a brand customers trust for convenient, preventive automotive services. With over 1,700 retail locations across the U.S. and Canada, Valvoline has more sales than any other preventive auto maintenance company in North America. These locations, 54% of which are franchised, have delivered 16 consecutive years of same-store sales growth. System-wide sales, which have been growing at a 19% CAGR over five years, are now nearly $2.4 billion for fiscal 2022. Looking to Slide 7. The new Valvoline is expected to generate faster growth, higher margins, and 20% plus EPS growth, taking Valvoline into the top tier of consumer retail growth stocks. We expect our financial and operating metrics to improve significantly post-separation, which will compound value to shareholders. In simple terms, our plan is to grow top line revenue at 14% to 16%, adjusted EBITDA between 16% and 18%, and deliver adjusted EPS growth between 22% and 26% per year over the next five years. We are forecasting adjusted EBITDA margins to steadily improve within the range of 26% to 29% over the forecast period. We have multiple levers to create value and drive strong growth, including continuing to focus on growing our core business through winning market share and improving service penetration, focusing on accelerating our franchise growth while continuing organic growth via new store development and M&A, leveraging our assets and core capabilities into incremental service offerings as the car park evolves, and maintaining an enhanced capital structure and improved capital allocation policy by returning excess cash to shareholders. We will talk more about each of these growth levers. Valvoline is a highly attractive investment opportunity. Our compelling value proposition has three broad components: growth, brand, and performance. We're going to accelerate franchise growth, expanding our already scaled footprint and platform as one of the largest preventive maintenance companies in North America. Auto Care is a growing, highly fragmented market with significant white space for expansion. We see potential for our differentiated model of providing convenient and trusted service to our customers as a driver to more than double our 1,700-plus retail locations across North America to over 3,500 units. We're confident that our model of quick, easy, trusted service will allow us to continue winning market share while generating attractive margins and significant cash flows in the years to come. Turning to Slide 9. We are already a leader in a uniquely attractive industry, preventive automotive care. This market is economically resilient with low cyclicality and established long-term growth drivers. There are over 275 million cars in the U.S. with increasing age and vehicle complexity, driving the need for auto care and increased service spend. Additionally, total miles driven continues to grow. This market provides essential services required in any economic environment for any car type. Valvoline's strategy is to continue growing our preventive maintenance business through ongoing improvements in service performance and investments in network expansion while continuing to develop capabilities for an evolving car park. While there has been a lot of press over the past 12 months on electric vehicles, the reality is that it will take decades for electric vehicles to represent a substantial portion of the car park in North America. With our strong brand, scaled platform, and convenient and trusted service, we are confident we can continue to win share in the evolving auto care market. We have a simple and proven business model. When you look at the core metrics for retail services over the past seven years, they are impressive. We've grown units from 1,068 stores in 2016 to 1,715 in 2022. Our system-wide sales have grown from $880 million to $2.4 billion in the same time period, an average ten percent same-store sales growth annually. From a profit perspective, both segment sales and segment EBITDA have grown at over 20% CAGR from 2016 to 2022. These results demonstrate the strength of the business model that Valvoline has built. Looking at Slide 11, we highlight our mature company stores, which are defined as stores opened prior to October 2018. Recall, we have aggressively added stores over the past five years, hence, only about 60% of our store base is mature. The mature stores have provided substantial growth in recent years with per store revenue growing from $1 million in fiscal 2018 to $1.5 million in fiscal 2022, while per store EBITDA has grown from nearly $330,000 to over $500,000 in the same time period. Additionally, we have a strong pipeline of stores that are working towards that mature store status. We believe there is more than $50 million of incremental EBITDA growth in the years ahead, simply from our non-mature stores transforming into mature stores. We expect our same-store sales growth, which includes mature and non-mature stores, to continue this trajectory by compounding at 6% to 9%. Turning to Slide 12. We talked about the considerable white space in our fragmented industry to further expand our footprint. We believe we can easily double our store count over the long term through franchise growth and company store additions and continue to win share from our competitors. Our data-driven approach to site selection provides a highly predictive real estate model that allows us to choose ideal locations to maximize store growth. Having a large geographic coverage allows us to maximize cash-on-cash returns today, which is incredibly attractive, while focusing on stores that are equipped to evolve with the car park. Simply put, we still have a long runway on our growth trajectory. Now I'd like to turn it over to Lori Flees, president of Retail Services. Lori joined us about seven months ago and has jumped right in and is already adding value. Lori is going to talk about our growth strategy in addition to our focus in fiscal 2023. Lori?
Lori Flees, President of Retail Services
Thanks, Sam. I appreciate the opportunity to be on the call today. I'm humbled to be part of this amazing team, and I'm excited to share where we are headed and our focus for fiscal 2023. We have a simple but highly effective model for delivering value. Same-store sales growth coming from both transaction and ticket, plus growth in units, combined with incremental sales from service expansion, together drive higher revenue, margins, and free cash flow. We'll execute on this formula with a continued commitment to operational excellence to ensure we capture growth long into the future. Now let me break these down in more detail starting on Slide 15. First, we're confident that we'll deliver 6% to 9% in same-store sales growth with growth in both transactions or the vehicles we serve and the average ticket. Looking at transaction growth for our mature company stores, we've delivered a 4% compound annual growth rate over the past 5 years in the number of vehicles served per day, which is faster than the do-it-for-me oil change industry. And we expect this growth will continue for three reasons. First, as Sam mentioned, the age and complexity of vehicles is driving growth for preventive maintenance service providers. Second, our value proposition of quick, easy, trusted service could not be more relevant to consumers and has enabled us to gain market share from non-Quick Lube operators. And last, we have significant capacity available in our existing stores and are innovating ways to improve upon our service speed, which will increase vehicle throughput and delight our customers. In the past 7 years, we've grown from an average of 40 to 50 vehicles served per day for our mature stores, and we do not see any barriers getting to 55 in the next 12 to 24 months and to 60 within the next 5 years. In FY '23, our newly-formed central operations team is working to implement equipment, technology, and supply chain solutions that will simplify work in our stores and enable faster service delivery. On Slide 16, you'll see another driver of same-store sales, which is ticket growth. We've increased ticket growth by 5% compound annual growth rate over the past 5 years, and we have three key levers to drive continued ticket growth. First is the shift to synthetics, which drives a higher ticket and margin rate. We anticipate the shift in synthetic to add over $1 to ticket annually, accounting for approximately one-third of the expected growth from ticket. Second is growth in non-oil change revenue, as we offer additional services to our customers and continue to improve the sales penetration of these services we offer will capture increased ticket. And last, pricing leverage. We test and analyze pricing elasticity as well as benchmark our service pricing against both Quick Lube and other competitors to ensure we are appropriately priced for the service experience we offer. In FY '23, our team is focused on driving more consistent penetration of non-oil change services across our stores. In October, we rolled out new reporting and training to our store managers specific to this area because of the variation we see in store results and stemming from how services are presented. This training is now cascading to all team members, and we're seeing some very promising initial results. Let's turn to the next slide. The next part of our formula is unit growth. As Sam said, we have significant opportunity to increase our geographic coverage and store density across our network. On geographic coverage, today, approximately 70% of our customers live within 10 miles of the store they visit. However, data shows that only 35% of the car park is within 10 minutes of a Valvoline location. Given convenience is an important driver for consumers, we clearly have an opportunity to expand our geographic coverage, and we also have opportunity to increase our store density in key markets. As with most retailers, store share drives market share. Today, we estimate our market share in our strongest markets like Louisville, Kentucky is over three times our network's average market share. And this relationship is consistent when comparing store share across our network with our top markets, thereby showing we have significant store infill opportunities in many key markets. So to drive an accelerated growth in units, we will focus on both franchise and company store growth. Let's look at our franchise growth plans first on the next slide. Our franchise growth will play a key role in our network expansion. In the past 2 years, we've added about 50 new franchise units each year, not including transfers. And our objective is to triple this by 2027. While franchise stores deliver about one-third of the EBITDA of a company-owned store, they deliver a very attractive capital return to Valvoline due to the minimum investment required, and they deliver approximately 30% cash-on-cash return to our franchise partners. We're working on a number of efforts to drive franchise growth, including recruiting new franchise partners, which will include additional private equity firms, partnering with our current franchisees to drive more growth, and identifying specific geographies to transition to franchise territories. While this is a multi-year focus, we're already making investments in this area. After seeing significant M&A pipeline growth on the company store side with the creation of our business development team, we've expanded their focus to include franchise geographies and are starting to see the pipeline benefit. And last month, we met our franchise partners who, on average, have been Valvoline partners for 25 years, to discuss how we can shift company-focused real estate capabilities to support high priority market growth for key franchisees. And we'll continue to pursue growth on the company store portfolio as well, allocating capital to priority markets that will provide the strongest shareholder return. We plan to build on our scale platform by targeting 100 new company stores per year and maintaining that level. We generate three times more EBITDA per store at these company-owned locations than franchise stores, while generating returns on invested capital in excess of 15%. We also benefit from the flexibility that company stores provide in piloting new service offerings as well as technology in a controlled environment. Our balanced approach between owned locations and franchise stores allows us to balance the financial benefits of each model, drive accelerated growth across our platform, and strengthen our franchisee value proposition by proving out initiatives in company stores before asking franchise partners to invest and implement. Turning to Slide 20. The third lever in our business model is non-oil change service penetration and expansion. We remain committed to evolve with the car park while also driving non-oil change service growth. Currently, about 25% of sales come from non-oil-change services. This includes providing fluid flushes, tire rotations, and parts replacement. As I previously mentioned, this is a core focus of ticket growth. But another positive impact on services growth is our fleet business, which has been growing at a faster rate than our consumer business. A fleet vehicle is serviced more frequently than a consumer vehicle, and the ticket is approximately 25% higher on average, driven by non-oil-change services. Today, our existing stores can serve light-duty fleet vehicles, and we're developing the capabilities to serve medium-duty vehicles across our network. We have a strong inside and regional sales team to both increase penetration within the existing fleet accounts like Element, Enterprise, and Lease Plan, as well as grow our fleet customer base overall. And we will continue to expand into new services to meet the needs of an evolving car park. This summer, we expanded our EV service pilot to two markets. While EV penetration of the car park is around 1% nationally, we're learning more about our customers' expectations as we complete inspections, tire rotations, cabin air filter replacement, 12-volt battery replacement as well as wiper and key battery replacement for EV owners, which leads me to how we think about our service evolution as shown on Slide 21. We are staying close to the car park electrification forecast and the key enablers of the market's evolution towards EV. Our primary focus in the near term is to grow market share and increase our customer base. We'll use the customer data to understand how powertrain preferences change and leverage our brand to test and launch appropriate new services to customers. We believe that our quick, easy, and trusted experience will be relevant to customers regardless of the vehicle they drive. And we know that a more complete store network makes us an attractive partner to fleet customers and other players across the automotive OEM and services landscape. The car park evolution will take time, and it will certainly vary by geography. Valvoline has the financial flexibility, expertise, and resources to evolve with it, and we have already gotten started. With that, I'll turn it over to Mary to discuss earnings, results, and guidance. Mary?
Mary Meixelsperger, CFO
Thanks, Lori. The announcement that Valvoline signed a definitive agreement to sell its global products business resulted in the former Global Products segment being classified as discontinued operations for purposes of GAAP reporting, with the Retail Services segment becoming the company's continuing operations. The historical financial statements have been recast based on the accounting rules governing assets held for sale and discontinued operations to reflect these statements consistently with the go-forward business that will remain. As part of this work, we were required to reassign indirect SG&A expenses, including those formally unallocated expenses to continuing and discontinued operations. We also evaluated the treatment of the sale of products to our independent franchisees and Express Care operators, following revenue recognition guidance and determined that the new Valvoline is acting as an agent in the sale of product to our independent partners. The historical continuing operations financial statements have been recast to include this agency accounting treatment, reducing sales and increasing operating margin rate with no impact to profitability. Finally, the historical financial statements have also been recast to include the sales and cost impacts of the supply agreement that will be in place between the two businesses once the sale of Global Products is completed. Results of the continuing operations are comparable to those previously discussed on a pro forma basis at the time we made the announcement. Slide 24 bridges the historical segment results for Retail Services to Valvoline's adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations after the impact of the changes previously described. Recall that our previous guidance for Retail Services segment EBITDA for fiscal year '22 was $415 million to $425 million. We delivered $421.6 million of segment EBITDA for the fiscal year. The bridge from segment adjusted EBITDA to continuing operations adjusted EBITDA accounts for the retail services portion of the split of shared corporate costs previously unallocated to the segments of approximately $40 million and dis-synergy related to the new supply agreement markup and separation-driven SG&A increases combining for a total of just over $60 million. Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations for fiscal year '22 of $315.7 million is consistent with the range discussed in our Q3 conference call. The balance of my comments will focus on the adjusted recast results from continuing operations. Results for the fourth quarter from continuing operations saw sales increase in the mid-teens, and adjusted EBITDA increased 11%. Sales for the quarter were primarily driven by ticket. We did see strengthening transaction momentum during the quarter that has continued into the new fiscal year. The adjusted EBITDA margin rate reflects the favorable impact of the change in reporting of product sales to independent operators previously discussed. The impact of this agency accounting change increased Q4 adjusted EBITDA margins by over 400 basis points. The business did take an additional price increase on most services in the month of September after assessing the competitive environment. Now let's look at the results for the full fiscal year. We continue to see strong sales momentum and saw about a 20% increase in sales over the prior year. Also, we completed our 16th consecutive year of same-store sales increases. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 14% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA margin was just under 26%. Slide 26 provides a summary of our GAAP results for Q4 and the full year. Our consolidated and continuing and discontinued operations GAAP results include the effects of several significant accounting matters, which impacted both Q4 and the full year. For simplicity, I'll focus on the full-year impacts with more detailed information provided in the appendix to this presentation. First, GAAP operating income from continuing operations reflects the impact of nonrecurring expenses related to the separation and the benefit from a legacy Ashland-related matter. For the year, these combined for approximately $20 million in expenses in '22 and benefits of $24 million in the prior year. Second is the year-end remeasurement of our pension and other postretirement plans, which impacted income from continuing operations by a $44 million loss compared to a gain of $74 million in the prior fiscal year. Finally, a favorable adjustment recognized in income for discontinued operation impacts our consolidated GAAP net income for an income tax benefit of approximately $99 million. This adjustment relates to the realization of the book tax basis differences in the non-U.S. entities that will be sold with the Global Products business. Slide 27 highlights our fiscal year 2023 guidance. We expect top line growth of 14% to 18%, driven by expected same-store sales growth of 8% to 12% and unit growth of 8% to 9%. We expect adjusted EBITDA to grow by 17% to 24% with guidance of $370 million to $390 million. This reflects the lapping of the weaker earnings we saw in Q2 and Q3 of fiscal '22, where we saw a larger lag in pricing versus rising product and labor costs. We expect CapEx to be $170 million to $200 million in fiscal year '23. This includes amounts for additional new store growth, increased maintenance and technology costs, including some deferred costs from fiscal year '22 and one-time costs related to the separation. We are also guiding to adjusted net income of $160 million to $180 million. We're guiding to adjusted net income rather than adjusted EPS as market conditions will dictate the method and speed by which we return net proceeds from the sale of Global Products to shareholders. Slide 28 usually shows a summary of the baseline fiscal year '22 results from continuing operations and our fiscal year '23 guidance for sales and EBITDA. I want to provide an update to our capital allocation strategy that we believe will enhance value creation at Valvoline. Today, we announced a new $1.6 billion share repurchase authorization expected to be executed over 18 months. Our purchases will be made subject to general business and market conditions, including the closing of the sale of the Global Products business, and we will evaluate all structures for executing the buyback programs. We also reiterate our intention to eliminate the dividend after the close of the sale of Global Products as we shift to share repurchases as the primary form of capital returns to shareholders. Our plan is the dividend declared and paid this quarter will be the last. From an ongoing capital structure perspective, we will target a net leverage ratio of 2.5 to 3.5x last 12 months EBITDA, including leases and pension obligations. I'll now turn the call back over to Sam for closing remarks.
Samuel Mitchell, CEO
Thank you, Mary. I want to take a minute and thank our team at Valvoline across retail services, global products, and supporting resource groups for their hard work over the past year. Fiscal year 2022 was a busy year given our corporate strategic actions in addition to the challenging macroeconomic backdrop. At Valvoline, we said it all starts with our people. And frankly, they have delivered over the past year. With the sale of Global Products on track to close in early calendar 2023, I'm excited about what the new Valvoline can deliver for our shareholders. We have built a business model that generates significant, consistent, and predictable profit, cash flow, and return on invested capital. Our focus on making car care easy by delivering a superior quick, easy, and trusted customer experience continues to drive loyalty and new customer growth, and we carry excellent momentum into fiscal 2023. The growth opportunities are tremendous. We have plans in place to build on our competitive advantages by growing our store network and with an increased focus on franchising, leveraging technology, and developing new capabilities for an evolving car park. The new Valvoline presents a high-performing fast growth retail service business investment opportunities. I will now turn the call back over to Sean to begin the Q&A session.
Sean Cornett, Investor Relations
Thanks, Sam. Please open the line.
Operator, Operator
We have the first question from Simeon Gutman of Morgan Stanley.
Michael Kessler, Analyst
This is Michael Kessler on for Simeon. First, I wanted to ask for an update on the pricing back on the retail services, and you alluded to the price cost lag, which has been a headwind in the last couple of quarters as it was seen pretty volatile base oil pricing. So can you just kind of let us know how that's trending, how you feel about pricing, and the cost of goods backdrop in retail services? And if there's any embedded improvement as we move through this upcoming fiscal year?
Mary Meixelsperger, CFO
Michael, this is Mary. We've noticed a significant increase in stability regarding product pricing over the past few months, which is encouraging. We've actually experienced a reduction in base oil costs that will provide some modest benefits in fiscal '23. Additionally, we implemented a price increase across our company store portfolio in September to address increased costs, primarily in labor and product, to fully recover our margins. I'm pleased to share that our margins on a per transaction basis have fully recovered in the fourth quarter, and we anticipate further margin improvement as we enter the new fiscal year. This improvement will be attributed to increased efficiencies linked to sales growth, as well as the fact that we will be getting past the challenging couple of quarters you mentioned in Q3, which will aid our margin rate with full pricing realization. That's where we currently stand.
Samuel Mitchell, CEO
Lori, why don't you comment on the pricing environment from a consumer perspective?
Lori Flees, President of Retail Services
Yes. So the pricing, particularly in September, typically when we roll out pricing, it takes a little while for us to get the full price increase through, and our ability to do that was very strong this time, and we have not seen any impact on transactions or we closely monitor our customer feedback also, and we are not seeing any increased commentary around price, and this is giving us a lot of confidence that we're priced appropriately. We continue to benchmark our pricing and run tests in different stores, just so that we can be responsive to where we place our pricing with the market. But we feel really good right now about the price realization that we've captured through September and into the new fiscal year.
Michael Kessler, Analyst
That's helpful. I have a follow-up question. Is transitioning to the mid to high end of the long-term EBITDA margin guidance largely dependent on stability and the factors you've mentioned, or are there other aspects involved? For instance, could new store maturation play a role in reaching that mid to higher end? And is this something that can be achieved as the business matures in terms of store count and growth, or can we realize this progress even as we head in that direction?
Samuel Mitchell, CEO
Yes. The biggest driver in driving that margin improvement over time is same-store sales growth. And so the performance of the business model, winning new customers and driving ticket performance, increased service penetration, this is what has been driving the mature store performance. And so you saw that leverage in the information we shared in the presentation with growing top line sales but also strong EBITDA increases in this period. So as these newer stores that we've added over the last five years become mature, there is a significant addition that they make to both bottom line profit, but also begin to enhance the EBITDA performance, overall margin performance for the business. So we do expect over this long-term guidance to see the margin performance grow from that lower range to the higher range, 26% to 29%, over time with increasing leverage in the system.
Lori Flees, President of Retail Services
Sam, just to add to that, I definitely agree with what Sam is saying. The other piece of this is the mix between franchise and company stores. As we shift our reporting of revenue to an agency reporting, the mix of margin between franchise on a rate basis between franchise and company stores will actually start to shift as we grow the franchise new unit development, our margin rate will increase. And therefore, that's where you see the higher end of the range delivering the same-store sales and starting to increase the focus of new unit growth more skewed to the franchise side.
Mary Meixelsperger, CFO
And Michael, the final piece, of course, is SG&A leverage. We expect our SG&A growth and investments on a year-over-year basis over the future three to five years will be at a substantially lower rate than what we expect our top line growth to be. So we do expect to see overall rate enhancements through SG&A leverage.
Michael Kessler, Analyst
Got it. Just real quick last one. Just the delta between the prior long-term pro forma targets and the ones you laid out today, the only difference fundamentally is the agency accounting, and there's nothing else that's changing under the surface or on an underlying level. Is that right?
Mary Meixelsperger, CFO
That's substantially right, Michael. We've gotten much more refined in the work that we've done in terms of the '23 plans since we spoke last, so there are some modest underlying changes. But for the most part, the biggest difference is just the move to agency accounting, which does not affect profitability but reduces sales and increases margin rate.
Operator, Operator
We now have Mike Harrison of Seaport Research Partners.
Michael Harrison, Analyst
A lot to digest here. I really appreciate that you guys laid out the growth algorithm in such detail. I'm curious, you referenced some investments or focus on trying to increase speed of service and trying to get increasing number of vehicles per day. You mentioned you didn't see any barriers to getting to 60 vehicles per day. Can you elaborate on some of the changes that you're making? And I'm curious at your best stores, how many vehicles per day are you averaging?
Lori Flees, President of Retail Services
Thanks for the question. I'll discuss this topic, and then Sam can provide additional insights. Regarding service speed, we've tested several initiatives in our busiest locations. These include launching services outside of the service bay and relocating certain services that don’t need a designated pit area to the parking lot. This approach is helping us efficiently process oil change customers through our facilities. Additionally, we're assessing our daily capacity; we currently have two, three, and four or more base stores, evaluating capacity per bay alongside staffing in relation to demand. It's clear that during peak times, particularly in the middle of the day and on weekends, we need to expedite the flow of vehicles through the bays. Effective lot management is crucial, much like in the fast food industry, and leveraging technology and tools is essential for our teams to manage vehicle movement and enhance the speed of the service experience. We have already begun implementing these strategies and will continue to expand them.
Samuel Mitchell, CEO
Just to add to that, Lori also mentioned in the presentation, the formation of our central ops team, which is all about how to support the stores so that our store personnel can stay completely focused on how that team is operating to service our customers and delivering that quick, easy, trusted experience. And we know from our research that speed is of the essence when it comes to satisfying customers and that our satisfaction drops when we take too long, if our service performance and wait times are too long. So we're going to continue to focus on the speed of service, making sure that we're as convenient as possible, and there's operational opportunities that help us with that speed component. But we also feel that the market, the drive for convenience, the need for convenience, and what consumers are looking for is something that is really plays to our business model, the standard car business model. And so from our store ops to our marketing programs that help consumers understand what Valvoline can do for them, that's what's driven our growth from 40 cars a day to 50 cars a day. And as we said, we see no barriers to going to 60 cars per day. Our stores have that capacity.
Mary Meixelsperger, CFO
Yes. The top third of our stores serve about 70 cars per day, while the best performing stores are seeing over 100 vehicles daily and are still experiencing growth. When we notice a store reaching its maximum capacity, we consider increasing density by adding another location in the area to maintain our market share. We have continued to see strong same-store sales performance at our highest volume transaction stores. The work we are doing is ongoing. One of our central services is a call center that allows us to relieve store personnel from answering phones, which has proven effective. We aim to centralize inventory management and other operational services to keep store management and employees focused entirely on enhancing the customer experience.
Michael Harrison, Analyst
All right. All of that makes a lot of sense. And then I had a couple of questions related to the non-oil change revenue slide, I believe it's Slide 20. A little bit surprised to see that the fiscal '22 growth in non-oil change revenue was pretty modest. I assume there was some pricing in there. I also know that you guys have talked to us in the past about having some issues, maybe COVID related, where your stores weren't staffed appropriately, and maybe you were missing some opportunities around non-oil change revenue. So maybe kind of talk about where you see that opportunity from the $21 ticket in '22 to move that higher near-term.
Lori Flees, President of Retail Services
Yes, a trend in fiscal year '22 was influenced by the price increases we implemented for oil changes. We had already raised prices on some non-oil-change services in fiscal year '21, so in fiscal year '22, we didn’t increase prices as much in percentage terms. Consequently, much of the difference in the growth rate is attributed to the oil change price hikes from fiscal year '22, which will also carry into fiscal year '23 because these price increases have not yet fully been accounted for. Therefore, you will notice some of that impact. Nonetheless, enhancing non-oil-change service penetration remains a significant priority for us. There’s a substantial difference—about 80 percent—between our top-performing and lowest-performing stores. This disparity is influenced by team turnover, as services beyond basic visuals, like fluid flushes, require adequate training both to sell and educate customers on these offerings, as well as to deliver the service itself. Given the turnover we faced this year, common among many retailers, we had to invest considerable effort into training to ensure our team could confidently recommend and execute these services. We anticipate seeing improvements in this area in fiscal year '23, as our turnover has stabilized and our retention levels are rising, enabling us to have more experienced team members available to assist customers.
Michael Harrison, Analyst
All right. And then last question I had is around the supply agreement that you have with the Global Products business. Curious to understand how prices pass through from Global Products. Is that based on an index? Does the new owner of Global Products have some kind of power to push pricing through unilaterally? Or is there kind of a third-party determination on what's happening with those finished lube prices?
Mary Meixelsperger, CFO
Yes, Mike, thanks for the question. So the supply agreement is essentially a cost-plus agreement, which operates similar to an index. But we basically have pricing adjusted monthly based on historical costs that both businesses are very familiar with as we've operated historically as a single business. We have several ways to test the pricing within the contract terms. On the third anniversary of the contract, we can take incremental volume out to bid to make certain that the pricing for the volume is consistent with what we could see in the market from other suppliers. Our intention is, and we believe we will have a very, very good long-term relationship with Valvoline Global Products. We've historically had a great supply chain relationship with the businesses, and we expect that to continue, but there are several mechanisms by which we can test the market moving forward. So I feel really good about the way that the supply agreement is positioned and think that it will be a long and mutually beneficial relationship between the parties.
Michael Harrison, Analyst
And sorry, just to clarify, the cost plus, is that a cost plus some penny margin or cost plus some percent margin?
Mary Meixelsperger, CFO
It's a cost plus penny margin. Mike, I would clarify that on other ancillary products, it is a cost-plus percentage. So on things like wipers and filters and batteries, it's actually a cost plus percentage. But on the vast majority of the supply agreement, which is in the lubricant space, it's a cost-plus penny margin.
Operator, Operator
We now have the next question from Jeff Zekauskas of JPMorgan.
Jeffrey Zekauskas, Analyst
On Page 4, you show same-store sales growth for company-owned stores and franchisees, and the franchisees grew 15.5% in 2022, and the company-owned stores grew 11.5%. Why the 400 basis point difference?
Mary Meixelsperger, CFO
Jeff, it's primarily driven geographically. We've actually seen in the new fiscal year, we've seen some reversal in that trend with company same-store sales growth outperforming franchise same-store sales growth. So it really is dependent on what you're up against from a comparable perspective. And you almost have to go back and look since the beginning of COVID where COVID hit franchise territories up in the Northeast much more severely than it did other company markets. And so when those markets are up against that, they had stronger sales performance. And so most of the variations are geographic. I would also say that we saw some of our franchisees respond more quickly passing through pricing than what we did at the corporate level. And we've talked about the impact that we had last year and the lessons that we've learned from that moving forward. But I would tell you it's primarily a geographical impact. And over time, if you look at the performance, very consistent between company and franchise.
Jeffrey Zekauskas, Analyst
Do you have any cost-cutting programs? Now that you've separated off this big part of your business, is there any overhead that can be taken out or you're efficient now?
Samuel Mitchell, CEO
Overall, with SG&A and the investments that we have in place, we feel good about the SG&A and the investments that we have with our team and the capabilities that we're building with regard to the evolving car park in preparation for the future. So our starting point, I think, is appropriate. But I think over time, what we're going to see as we grow, we're going to see some significant leverage in that SG&A and benefit from the investments that we have made. So that, again, gives us confidence in that forecast for our future EBITDA margin improvement.
Mary Meixelsperger, CFO
And Jeff, I would add, we're keenly focused on expenses with the separation and to ensure that we're not adding unnecessary expenses, and I'm looking for opportunities to contain costs or reduce costs, especially across the shared service areas that are going to be now dedicated and focused just to the retail business going forward. So the good news is the business that we're selling requires a full staffing, so there really isn't any stranded costs that we have to deal with as part of the sale of the business. But we will be keenly focused in making certain that we're as efficient and cost-focused in terms of maintaining our SG&A, reducing our SG&A over time, as Sam said, going forward.
Jeffrey Zekauskas, Analyst
Maybe as a last question. What's a little bit puzzling about your returns is, obviously, there's a lot of price this year because there's a lot of raw material inflation. And there's also a growth component because you build new stores. And those statistics are hard to disentangle in order to see what actually your volume changes are. Like on an organic basis, excluding the benefits from the new stores you build, what are your volumes doing either for the quarter or the year?
Mary Meixelsperger, CFO
We actually observed that, throughout the year, our same-store sales growth was pretty balanced between the number of transactions and the average ticket size. With a 13.7% same-store sales growth, roughly half of that growth came from transactions and the other half from ticket size. Does that clarify things for you?
Jeffrey Zekauskas, Analyst
Yes, it does.
Lori Flees, President of Retail Services
Yes. If you look at Page 15, you'll see the performance of our mature stores in terms of vehicles served per day, which showed a growth of about 5%. The ticket growth for our mature stores, as displayed on Page 16, aligns with that as well. You can expect that our new stores will experience a higher growth rate in transactions as they ramp up. Ticket growth for these new stores should be comparable for the most part.
Jeffrey Zekauskas, Analyst
So a lot of that growth probably on an annual basis came in the first quarter year-over-year where the comparisons were most easy. What's it been more recently?
Lori Flees, President of Retail Services
In Q4, we experienced slightly higher ticket growth due to the price increases made compared to the same period last year, along with transaction growth. As we enter Q1, we anticipate similar trends. We expect to see significant ticket growth driven by year-over-year price changes, while healthy transaction growth continued in October. Therefore, the beginning of the year appears consistent with Q4 in terms of underlying momentum.
Operator, Operator
We now have Laurence Alexander of Jefferies.
Laurence Alexander, Analyst
Most of my questions have been answered. So two simple ones. One is, as you think about the sort of initiatives that you're using to drive ticket growth, what parts of the business model or the service offering are you pushing on that is most differentiated from your competitors? And the second one is, thank you for the stats on the best-performing stores. Can you give us a sense for the SKU that is how many significantly underperforming easy-to-fix stores are there? Or is it more like the broad middle swath that you need to improve operations incrementally?
Samuel Mitchell, CEO
First of all, my opening comments on it is that, what's been really encouraging is that when you look at same-store sales performance, across the quartiles, we've seen positive momentum in both the high end, the high-performing stores and even the lower-end stores. Now some stores, in terms of their absolute growth opportunity, are more limited because of demographics. But we continue to see opportunities for improvement in execution, and Lori commented earlier on just the importance of staffing and training, the importance of retention because we know that when we've got the right team in the store that we can significantly impact the ticket performance and even the speed performance too, which drives transactions. So our focus in fiscal '23 is definitely to address some of those stores that we see opportunities for significant improvement, and that comes through leadership, but also the support that those stores are getting from the corporate team too and keeping them focused on what's most important. But when it comes to the differentiation of what we do versus competitors, it is a combination of these things that have to do with a great customer experience, and that comes back to our mantra of quick, easy, and trusted. And so that means that we are fast that we provide that convenience, staying in your car, trusted presentations. In other words, how we interact with the customer, how we present the services that they do for is so important. And this is where technology really comes into play because we've built a database that includes the customers' previous transactions with us. We have the owner's manual online for each of the OEMs, and we even bring in data from the outside if they've had services done elsewhere. So this means that we're not presenting services that the customer doesn't need. We're focused on what that car needs to be properly maintained. And when we do this right, we just continue to build loyalty with that customer because they're not getting it anywhere else. Valvoline does this better than anybody else, and this is the model that's been delivering that 10% same-store sales growth performance. And what's encouraging to me is that we see opportunities to get better at what we do, and that is our focus in fiscal '23 and beyond.
Operator, Operator
We now have our next question from the line from Chasen Bender of Citi.
Chasen Bender, Analyst
Just one for me. On the capital allocation, Mary, can you just remind us how you arrived at that 2.5 to 3.5 leverage ratio target? Just in context of the big opportunity having you guys to add stores and get to 3,500 and the expectation that you're going to accelerate store growth into the future?
Mary Meixelsperger, CFO
Sure, Chasen, and thanks for being on the call today. As we evaluate the long-term leverage ratio, we're considering the sensible management of the business and our balance sheet during this economically uncertain period, along with returning capital to shareholders and investing in the business. We're also assessing our credit rating objectives to ensure we maintain a reasonable overall cost of capital. This leads us to believe that a fully loaded leverage ratio of 2.5 to 3.5 times, including capital leases and unfunded pension liabilities, is the right way to structure our balance sheet. Initially, we expect to be at the upper end of that ratio, possibly slightly above it due to our share repurchase activities, even as we see EBITDA growth from returning capital to shareholders. However, I anticipate that over the long term, we will manage well within the 2.5 to 3.5 times range, which we believe is a prudent approach for managing the balance sheet.
Operator, Operator
We now have a follow-on question from Mike Harrison of Seaport Research Partners.
Michael Harrison, Analyst
Just a couple more quick ones. First of all, at one point, you guys had talked about some potential plans to monetize the real estate holdings of your stores. Are there any plans in place to do that? And if so, can you provide us with any details on how much capital that might be able to generate?
Mary Meixelsperger, CFO
Yes. Mike, that certainly is an opportunity for the retail business going forward for us to look at. It's not a massive opportunity, but it is one probably a few hundred million dollars. We haven't yet done all of the work, updated all of the work around that. We're pretty busy right now with the separation of the businesses and the sale of Global Products closing that we expect in the early calendar quarter. But I hope that we can give you a better update on what that opportunity is probably in the next 12 to 18 months. But it certainly is an opportunity for the retail business prospectively.
Michael Harrison, Analyst
Understood. And then my other question is just on the cadence of earnings as we kind of go through fiscal '23. I don't believe you provided a Q1 EBITDA guidance number. But I'm maybe just curious as we're comparing for retail services to the $115 million in Q4, would your expectation be that it's higher in Q1?
Mary Meixelsperger, CFO
We certainly expect year-over-year improvements in Q1 versus last year, and we expect there to be strong improvements versus Q2 because we're lapping a weaker quarter from last year. And then we certainly expect a strong performance in the back half of the year as well. So I would say, sequentially, you're going to see Q2 sequentially be a little stronger than Q1 and then with continuing strong performance in the back half of the year.
Operator, Operator
We have no further questions on the line. I'll now hand it back to Samuel Mitchell for some closing remarks.
Samuel Mitchell, CEO
Thank you for joining us this morning. It's an exciting time for the company as we prepare for the new Valvoline. We are on track to close in early 2023 and have received several regulatory approvals, including from CFIUS and Hart-Scott-Rodino in the U.S. We are also making progress internationally, which gives us confidence in closing in the coming months. Valvoline has a proven business model, performing well in challenging markets while driving same-store sales, expanding our network of stores, and operating in an appealing preventive maintenance market. Our confidence in the future of this business remains high. We have the right team, strategy, and plan in place. The new Valvoline offers an excellent opportunity for investors looking for a company that provides consistent and predictable profits, cash flow, and returns on invested capital with significant growth potential. Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Thank you all for joining. That does conclude today's call. Please enjoy your day. You may now disconnect your lines.