Earnings Call Transcript - WMG Q1 2023

Operator, Operator

Welcome to Warner Music Group's First Quarter Earnings Call for the Period Ended December 31, 2022. At the request of Warner Music Group, today's call is being recorded for replay purposes and if you object, you may disconnect at any time. Now I would like to turn today's call over to your host, Mr. Kareem Chin, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Kareem Chin, Head of Investor Relations

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Warner Music Group's fiscal first quarter earnings conference call. Please note that our earnings press release, earnings snapshot and the Form 10-Q we filed this morning will be available on our website. On today's call, we have our CEO, Robert Kyncl; and our CFO, Eric Levin, who will take you through our results and then we will answer your questions. Before our prepared remarks, I'd like to refer you to the second slide of the earning snapshot to remind you that this communication includes forward-looking statements that reflect the current views of Warner Music Group about future events and financial performance. We plan to present certain non-GAAP results during this conference call and in our earning snapshot slides and have provided schedules reconciling these results to our GAAP results in our earnings press release. All of these materials are posted on our website. Also, please note that all revenue figures and comparisons discussed today will be presented in constant-currency unless otherwise noted. All forward-looking statements are made as of today and we disclaim any duty to update such statements. Our expectations, beliefs, and projections are expressed in good faith and we believe there is a reasonable basis for them. However, there can be no assurance that management's expectations, beliefs, and projections will result or be achieved. Investors should not rely on forward-looking statements because they are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. Information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in our filings with the SEC. And with that I will turn it over to Robert.

Robert Kyncl, CEO

Thank you, Kareem, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be here speaking with all of you for my first earnings call at Warner Music Group. I've been on the job for five weeks and I'm grateful to our Board of Directors, our employees, artists, and songwriters for giving me such a warm welcome. I would especially like to thank my predecessor, Steve Cooper, for everything he has done to position the company for long-term success, and for all his insights as I've been getting up to speed. Thanks also to you, our valued shareholders, and everyone who follows the company for your continued support. So let's get into Q1 results. I am committed to maintaining straightforward and consistent communication with the investor community. So in that spirit, I want to immediately and clearly acknowledge that this was a tough quarter. Like most companies, WMG has been dealing with macroeconomic headwinds and the impact of currency exchange rates. It's important to note that last year's Q1 included an extra week of reporting, as a result, this quarter's comparisons need to be adjusted to provide an accurate picture and I'll be discussing our results in that context. Eric will give you more detail, but here are the headlines. Total revenue in Q1 grew 2% and adjusted OIBDA increased 13%, with 210 basis points of margin improvement. Recorded Music revenue was flat as the strength of our global performance was offset by a softer quarter in the U.S. We had a tough comparison with the prior year quarter, which included releases from some of our superstar artists. We're expecting a stronger release schedule in the back-half of the fiscal year, which will feature new music from Ed Sheeran, Cardi B, David Guetta, Aya Nakamura, and BeBe Rexha. Music Publishing had another strong quarter with revenue growth of 14%. Our operating cash-flow growth was healthy, despite some of our revenue lines coming under pressure. This further underscores our disciplined fiscal management, as we navigate this challenging business environment. I'd like to spend some time on this call, proactively addressing two questions that have often been asked. Specifically, why I chose to go into the music business and why I joined Warner Music Group after 12 years at YouTube and seven years at Netflix. YouTube drives the intersection of creators and technology, which means that I had many options to choose from in planning my next chapter. I chose music first and foremost, because everyone loves music, including me. It's embraced by 100% of the global population. In an increasingly digital world, music makes people feel and it brings them joy, hope, and comfort. Plus, in an increasingly divided world, music brings people together. That engagement is very powerful and valuable and we expect the evolution of monetization models to reflect that. On top of that, music's global appeal is matched by its ubiquity. This industry has achieved something rare. It's built mutually beneficial, long-term partnerships with many of the world's biggest companies, Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Spotify, and Tencent, among them. As successful as music has become, there is still meaningful upside ahead for three reasons. One, as technology opens up emerging economies, the industry's addressable market will continue to expand even further. Two, innovation is constantly creating new use cases for music, giving us the opportunity to diversify our revenue sources. Three, music is still undervalued, especially when compared to other forms of entertainment like video. I'd like to expand a bit on that last point. Since 2011, the subscription price of Netflix's standard service has roughly doubled. Data shows that almost 80% of U.S. households subscribed to at least three streaming video services. This means that the average household is spending more than four times per month on a combination of digital video services that isn't even a comprehensive offering. In contrast, the price of the music subscription has stayed the same since streaming was introduced over a decade ago. Most consumers subscribe to a single service that carries virtually all the music ever released. Against this backdrop, it is encouraging that we're seeing first steps in the right direction by Apple, Deezer, and Amazon. The other question I often get asked is why WMG? First and foremost, it's the artists and songwriters and powerful catalogs that are the lifeblood of this company and it's such a pleasure to bring this creative work to depend around the world. The new generations of stars like Lizzo, Dua Lipa, and Aya Nakamura; global superstars such as Ed Sheeran, Bruno Mars, Coldplay, and Neil Young; songwriters and composers like Lin-Manuel Miranda, Gamble & Huff, and John Williams; and legends such as John Coltrane, Led Zeppelin, Aretha Franklin, and Prince. Second, it's the people at WMG. This company has a consistent decades-long history of finding and developing unique voices that change culture globally. And then, in an increasingly complex and uncluttered world, originality is an essential ingredient of our success. Third is about size. WMG is big enough to drive meaningful change in the industry, but small enough to have plenty of room for growth. As just one example, the company has been taking a thoughtful approach to global expansion. WMG has made worldwide moves that lead front the competition in dynamic fast-growing markets such as China and the Middle East. This approach has also delivered record-breaking global firsts, with artists like Anita from Brazil, Paulo Londra from Argentina, King from India, and CK from Nigeria. I wanted to briefly address what we're doing to architect the next phase of growth. I'm only five weeks in, but I've been very intentional about how we've gone about this. I made two significant appointments, both of which tell you something about our priorities going forward. I hired Tim Matusch, my former colleague at YouTube, as our new EVP of Strategy and Operations, which is a new role at WMG. Tim will be critical to facilitating our strategic vision and ensuring operational execution. I also hired Ariel Bardin, as our President of Technology. Ariel's career includes 16 years at Google, where he built, launched, and led some of the company's most successful products, including YouTube's creator tools, memberships, and content ID. He will drive the development of the systems, infrastructure, and products needed to support our growth. As I've said, I'm committed to clear and straightforward communication on our progress. I also want you to know, I'm a big believer that actions speak louder than words and I'm laser-focused on execution. Right now, I'm working with leaders across the company to develop our plans for the future. We're already exploring some exciting ideas and initiatives and we will provide you with updates as soon as appropriate. That said, many of the fundamentals will remain the same. The foundations of this company are very strong and the music industry is rich with opportunities. We will continue to invest in new artists and songwriters, our catalog, and our global expansion. At the same time, we plan to thoughtfully reallocate some resources to accelerate how we use technology and data to empower artists and songwriters, as well as drive greater efficiency in our business. As subscription revenue continues to grow, as the supported recovers, and we explore the possibilities of new technologies and business models, it's essential we structure our deals smartly and strategically. I am approaching this next phase of growth with the unique benefits of having been on both sides of the table. I am proud that over the last five years at YouTube, we developed a very collaborative, mutually beneficial relationship with the music industry, after years of rocky ones. I plan on bringing in the same approach to WMG and the industry, so that our interests are aligned with our partners and that our artists and songwriters gain maximum participation and monetization. Now, I'll pass it over to Eric, who will take you through our results and then we'll answer your questions.

Eric Levin, CFO

Thank you, Robert and good morning, everyone. As Robert mentioned, our year-over-year comparisons should take into account the impact of the extra week in fiscal Q1, 2022. Adjusting for the extra week, we delivered growth across key metrics, including revenue, adjusted OIBDA, and adjusted OIBDA margin. Additionally, we saw strong operating cash-flow growth and strong cash conversion as a percentage of adjusted OIBDA, despite a challenging macro-environment. Total revenue declined 2.7%, but increased 2% when adjusted for the impact of the extra week. Adjusted OIBDA was flat and increased 12.8% when adjusted for the extra week. Adjusted OIBDA margin was 22.5% compared to 21.9% in the prior year quarter. Adjusting for the extra week, margin increased 210 basis-points. These increases were primarily due to disciplined operating performance and the impact of currency exchange rates. Recorded Music revenue declined 5.6% that was roughly flat when adjusting for the impact of the extra week. Streaming revenue decreased by 2.6%, after adjusting for the extra week, streaming revenue grew by 5%, as subscription streaming revenue grew by high-single-digits and was partially offset by ad-supported revenue declining in the mid-teens. Physical revenue declined 27%, adjusting for the extra week, physical declined 22%. Our streaming and physical results reflect a lighter release schedule we had this quarter compared with the prior year period, which included releases from Ed Sheeran and Coldplay. Artist services and expanded rights revenue decreased by 4%, due to macro-economic pressures affecting our E&P business and lower advertising revenue. Licensing increased 17% due to an increase in broadcast fees, synchronization, and other third-party licensing. Recorded music adjusted OIBDA decreased by 6% with a margin of 24.1%, which was roughly flat compared to the prior year quarter. Excluding the impact of the extra week, adjusted OIBDA grew 7% and the margin improvement was approximately 150 basis-points. This was driven by disciplined operating performance and the favorable impact of currency exchange rates. Music Publishing continues to deliver strong results, posting 14% growth, driven by strength across digital, performance, and mechanical. Digital revenue grew 16%, reflecting growth in streaming, which increased 17% driven by continued growth in streaming services and timing of new digital deals. Performance revenue increased by 29%, due to continued growth from bars, restaurants, concerts, and live events. Mechanical revenue increased by 17%, due to growth in France and Sync revenue decreased by 5%, due to lower commercial licensing activity in the U.S. and the timing of legal settlements. Music Publishing adjusted OIBDA increased 36% to $72 million with margin increasing 460 basis points, driven by strong operating performance and the favorable impact of currency exchange rates. Q1 CapEx decreased to $21 million as compared to $34 million in the prior year quarter, mainly due to lower facilities investments. We anticipate some acceleration in the coming quarters, driven by IT infrastructure facilities and financial transformation investments. Our financial transformation program remains on track to meaningfully rollout in fiscal 2024 and expand globally in the following years. The program is expected to deliver annualized run rate savings of $35 million to $40 million once fully implemented. Operating and free cash flow growth and conversion were robust in Q1. Operating cash-flow increased 62% to $209 million from $129 million in the prior year quarter. Free cash flow increased 98% to $188 million from $95 million in the prior year quarter. Operating cash-flow conversion was 62% in Q1, the strong performance was driven by the timing of working capital items. While working capital will fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter, our goal remains to deliver a conversion rate of 50% to 60% over a multi-year period. As of December 31, we had a cash balance of $720 million, total debt of $3.9 billion, and net debt of $3.2 billion. Our weighted-average cost of debt is 3.7% and our nearest maturity date is in 2028. As we look ahead to the rest of the year, our goal is to release amazing new music from our talented roster of artists and songwriters. While some of the macro and release schedule driven pressures we saw in Q1 will impact Q2, our slate in the back-half of fiscal 2023 is strong. Featuring releases from some of our biggest stars as well as our next-generation of talent from across the globe. There's no question that our industry is feeling the impacts of the macro-economic environment. From currency fluctuations and a dislocated ad market to the short-term choppiness inherent in our business, there are a number of variables that can obscure our underlying health. However, our resilience through challenging times has been proven and we remain confident in our future growth. Against that backdrop, we are resolved to capitalize on the powerful tailwinds that will drive our company forward.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our first question will come from Benjamin Black from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Benjamin Black, Analyst

Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. Robert, I know you've only been in the seat for about a month now. But can you touch on where you potentially see opportunity for improvement within the organization and where you see potential for faster growth?

Robert Kyncl, CEO

Thank you for the question, Benjamin. I’ve been in my role for five weeks and am quickly getting up to speed. The strategy is currently being developed, and I have a good understanding of the industry from both perspectives, yet I’m still adjusting due to my brief time here. I would appreciate a bit more time to be thorough. However, I can share that we will carefully reallocate resources to enhance our technology investments, which will benefit not only artists and songwriters but also improve efficiencies within the company. My actions will reflect this commitment, as I've already made two appointments towards this goal in my first month with the hiring of Tim and Ariel. My aim is to achieve these objectives while maintaining a strong focus on financial discipline and cost management.

Benjamin Black, Analyst

And so, just a follow-up, if I may. Does that mean that you're planning to potentially cut costs? We have seen cost cuts impacting the music industry more broadly due to recent actions from Spotify, for example. So any view on cost-containment more specific and if so, which areas would it be cutting from?

Robert Kyncl, CEO

So one, the company has actually been much more measured in its headcount growth, for instance, over the last few years than others in the industry, who are now undergoing significant layoffs. Two, we are all aware that cost transformation initiatives have been underway for the last two to three years before any of these macroeconomic issues have emerged. So there has been a lot of momentum on this, which is probably putting us in a slightly different position than others. And but again, I'd like to reiterate that I'll be focusing on reallocating our internal resources in order to invest in technology and drive not only more tools for monetization for creators but also greater efficiencies for us.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Sebastiano Petti from JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Sebastiano Petti, Analyst

Hi, thank you. Robert, I just wanted to ask you, are you concerned about the dilution of music from AI-generated content? Maybe given your unique perspective, given some of your prior roles, any impact. I'd love to hear your thoughts. And then for Eric, you touched on margin expansion being driven just by strong operating results well ahead of expectations. I wanted to see if maybe you could provide us a little bit of detail there, maybe unpack some of the underlying drivers in each segment that drove robust margin expansion? Thank you.

Robert Kyncl, CEO

Thank you, Sebastiano. I believe AI is one of the most transformative developments in human history, with far-reaching implications. Therefore, it's crucial for us to pay close attention to it, and we are doing so throughout the company. There are various ways to address the music industry and other sectors that own copyrighted material. This can be categorized into four areas. First, using existing copyrights to train AI-generated content. Second, sampling existing copyrights as a foundation for new and remixed AI content. Third, leveraging AI to support creativity in an assisting manner. And most importantly, we need to find ways to protect the rights of artists and songwriters from being undermined or replaced by AI-generated content, which you mentioned. It's not just about this single issue; it's about all these aspects that we, as an industry—not just the music industry, but all copyright holders—need to collaboratively address with AI platforms. I want to emphasize that you don't have to be futuristic to tackle this, although we certainly are; you can also apply a current focus that can benefit our future standing in a world filled with AI-generated content. This means tracking content and identifying its usage on consumption platforms to ensure appropriate acknowledgment and compensation for copyright holders, which is fundamental to all of this. Different platforms have varying capabilities in this area. YouTube is notably the most advanced with its Content ID system, which others have yet to achieve. However, some platforms are lacking and need improvement in this regard, as this deficiency could pose serious challenges in an AI-driven future. You can expect us to concentrate on this extensively.

Eric Levin, CFO

Thank you, Sebastiano. So margin expansion. So, obviously this quarter, when you look at adjusted for the extra week, a 210 basis-points increase in margin is substantive and we're proud of that. We focus on disciplined management and disciplined cost oversight and management. We can look at this quarter and see, for example, Warner Chappell had a 36% OIBDA increase. Pretty extraordinary kind of growth from that line of business. We are targeting margin expansion generally on an annual basis, not every year will be exactly the same, but a 0.5 point to 1 percentage point increase in margin is what we look towards. Again, not every year is the same. So this is an exceptional quarter from margin enhancement, but margin enhancement is part of our strategy, for sure.

Sebastiano Petti, Analyst

Thank you.

Eric Levin, CFO

Thank you, Sebastiano.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Benjamin Swinburne from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Benjamin Swinburne, Analyst

Good morning, Robert. Nice meeting you over the phone and welcome. I wanted to ask you a bit more about your comments around music being undervalued. Obviously, that has been a long ongoing debate in the industry between the labels and distributors and given your seat on the other side of the negotiating table, I'd love to hear your thoughts on how do you affect that change in the industry from the CEO position at Warner Music Group? Obviously, you don't get to dictate per se the pricing of the DSPs and sort of what you can extract from players like TikTok, but what do you think you can do given your experience at YouTube to accelerate the value capture in music? And then I just wanted to ask Eric, if I could have a follow-up. And you said high single-digit subscription streaming revenue organically, I believe. Can that accelerate this year? Is that a new normal in your mind? That's obviously quite a bit lower than what we saw from Spotify, for example, on an organic basis in premium revenue, and I think the market is a bit concerned that the major labels may be losing share. So I'd love to get your thoughts on that. Thank you both.

Robert Kyncl, CEO

Thank you. So one, I made my comments, so I think everyone has been sort of stuck in the conversation, sort of one-on-one relationship between content providers and the DSPs. I look at it more from a macro level that the space is generally undervalued. And if you look at all the other indicators, how people pay for subscriptions and the price increases in various subscriptions, not just entertainment, have been much more significant than it has been in music. And I think that is something that we have to all be very mindful of. I can't really get into the tactics of how we would achieve that, but what I can tell you is that at YouTube we have the history of executing and delivering on our plans. And that is precisely what I plan to bring here. And we've done so at least in the last five to seven years in an extremely collaborative manner. So that is also something that I plan to bring here. So I know, I'm not giving you much of the specifics other than other history of getting things done; and a history of being collaborative, and I want the industry to go for everyone and I believe this is the right path.

Eric Levin, CFO

Thank you. Ben, good talking to you. So I would talk to our release schedule a little bit. So as we said, our fiscal Q1 release schedule in the U.S. was a little bit of a softer schedule that could roll in and have some impact on Q2 as well this year. We have a second half fiscal '23 as second-half oriented release schedule, or the strength of our release schedule tends to be more oriented this year towards the second half, and we think that will have a positive impact on streaming. If we just look back one quarter ago, our subscription streaming growth was in the teens, in the low-teens area. So release schedule does have a couple of point impact. So we do think this has a fair amount to do with release schedule timing.

Benjamin Swinburne, Analyst

Thank you, both.

Eric Levin, CFO

Thanks, Ben.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Rich Greenfield from LightShed Partners. Your line is open.

Rich Greenfield, Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking the question. Robert, it's great to have you on this call. I love sort of your perspective on how important you think music is, as TikTok's core product. And then sort of a related question. When you were at YouTube, I remember the label, including Warner, pushed very aggressively for you to launch a subscription product in addition to sort of the marketing aspect of what YouTube did for music. I'm curious, if you think the same thing in terms of the push for subscription products will happen with TikTok?

Robert Kyncl, CEO

Thank you, Richard. It's great to hear from you. So one, having lived through that, we made the decision to launch a subscription at YouTube because we were looking at the industry holistically and we had a fast-growing advertising business with free content to users, while at the same time, subscription was somewhat nascent for the industry. The industry really wanted us to invest in converting that large free user base into a paying user base. Obviously, you don't do it with all 2 billion users; you do it as some fraction of it and great audience segmentation strategy and that's exactly what we did. So we decided that music is important to us forever, and therefore we should invest into it holistically. And obviously, that's also followed a further expansion into shortage later on. So the platform has done an incredible job, delivering multiple formats, super short format, with properly remunerated and subscription as well as life. So when you look at that from the point of view of content owner and content provider, it's a phenomenal partnership and phenomenal platform; that's exactly what we decided to do. I think for TikTok, to go to the beginning of your question, well, let me also say, we've looked at this question very closely and we decided that it was important to us, and that's why we did it. TikTok needs to do that, it's the right decision for them to evaluate. And you can see from YouTube's execution what the results of the findings were for us, but again speak to what TikTok obviously finds. Sorry, I'm losing my voice. But my answer is, a holistic relationship is what we're looking for.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come from Matthew Thornton from Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Matthew Thornton, Analyst

Hi, good morning. Robert, welcome on board and Eric, hope you're well. Maybe two if I could and related. First one, Eric, any update on emerging streaming and kind of how that trended in the quarter? And then relatedly, as you think about fiscal '23, is there any way to think about or handicap, whether we could get movements on the emerging streaming side, i.e., a new deal that would actually materialize to kind of pushing that business up higher? And/or continued price increase momentum this year that could be material to the subscription streaming side of the business? Any way to think about that impact or potential impact in '23 would be very helpful. Thanks guys.

Eric Levin, CFO

Sure, it's great to hear from you, and I appreciate your questions. This is Eric; I'll address the financial aspects. In this quarter, there were no major renewals to report. Emerging streaming was roughly flat sequentially, but it has increased about 20% year-on-year, which is a substantial growth. Generally, we have fixed fee agreements, so revenue tends to rise with renewals based on the current deal structures. Regarding your second question about renewals, we don’t discuss specific deals or their timing. However, we did a series of deals back in 2021, and most of our emerging streaming agreements typically span two to three years. This indicates that we will definitely have discussions about new deals within fiscal 2023, although the timing and specifics of those agreements—whether they remain fixed fee or have variable portions—are yet to be determined. We'll keep you updated on the renewals and their impacts, and discussions will continue throughout the year with some of our partners. As for subscription price increases, there have been significant announcements from key partners like Apple, Amazon, and Deezer regarding their price hikes. While we don't discuss specific agreements, we know that with our largest subscription partners, our deals tend to be variable. Price increases will positively affect growth, and we expect to see this reflected in the subscription revenue numbers in future quarters, contributing positively to subscription growth this year. Thank you, Matthew; I appreciate it.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Michael Morris from Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.

Michael Morris, Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, guys. I have two questions, I think for Robert. My first is your comments about technology and innovation, new use cases and these appointments that you've made. It seems that, that element of the growth has largely been dependent on innovation from outside of the company and your participation there. Do you see areas to incrementally invest on the technology side and maybe bring any of those growth drivers in-house? I'd be curious what you think on that. My second question is about streaming share. Spotify reported their annual results recently and indicated that the share of streams attributed to major labels had again declined by another couple of hundred basis points. And I'm curious, how you view that information? Whether you see that as pervasive across your DSP partner relationships? What do you think it means and how do you address that going forward? Thank you.

Robert Kyncl, CEO

Sure, thank you. So there is no question that technology will underpin everything we do, whether it's growth or whether it's efficiencies. And it's important that we invest into it and that's what we're doing. It's a little too early for me to describe exactly what we'll do in that regard, but I think it gives you the option; investing into it gives you the optionality to do that when we have the investment capital to be deployed against it. I think the only dilution question, I think it's something that you've been seeing all along, it's obviously something I keep an eye on that sort of considers a fair game. These are platforms where content providers are uploading content and we have to do a great job and having a robust catalog; building more great artists that are gaining meaningful share and we have to do a great job with them, so the onus is on us.

Eric Levin, CFO

I would tack on to that, Michael, that we obviously released music that we A&R and market ourselves. But we also have a significant business that is licensing and distributing Indie music. And we're constantly expanding our business globally to additional territories. Sometimes that involves acquiring or licensing music or partnering with local independent players. So the independent, as well as the major part of the business are both part of the business we participate in robust way. And it's part of our strategy to make sure we're playing into the significant growth areas of the global music partner.

Michael Morris, Analyst

Thank you for that, Eric. If I could just follow up, because I think that's an important point. I don't know if you can help quantify or help us with that. But do you think that that data from Spotify, and I don't mean to just pick them, but that as an example is sort of underestimating your actual participation because of your share of the Indie side as well?

Eric Levin, CFO

We need to respond to a variety of platforms because we hold licenses for hundreds of digital platforms. Our portfolio includes global and local platforms, as well as subscription-based and ad-supported services, some of which are socially focused. The key point is that music consumption across digital platforms worldwide is continuing to grow. This growth creates more opportunities for us to license and monetize music. Our focus isn't solely on one platform; instead, we aim to assess various platforms and territories to develop a strategy that promotes growth. We must also explore the different approaches to music creation and release to find the best ways to engage with them. Our strategy is complex and multi-faceted, and we believe it positions us effectively for sustained strong growth.

Michael Morris, Analyst

Thank you very much.

Robert Kyncl, CEO

Thanks, Michael. Appreciate it.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Kutgun Maral from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Kutgun Maral, Analyst

Good morning and thanks for taking my question. I wanted to follow-up on the recorded music subscription revenue discussion from earlier, just because it has been a major area of debate. Eric, I know you talked about the impact of the release slate and content cyclicality and how that could cause a couple of hundred basis-points of volatility here and there. But the magnitude of the deceleration from Q4 to Q1 was perhaps at the upper end of that, maybe even greater thinking through some benefits from the Apple Music price increase. So there's just a broader concern; is there something else going on beyond this market-share shifts? And so I wanted to confirm your views and maybe get a read on whether the Q1 growth rate of high single digits may be an appropriate benchmark for Q2 ahead of your stronger back-half release schedule? Thank you.

Eric Levin, CFO

Thank you. I would like to point out two factors that are impacting overall streaming growth. The first is our release schedule, and the second is the noticeable slowdown in ad-supported streaming, which deserves some attention. Given the disruptions and challenges in the macro-economy, ad-supported streaming continues to experience a decline compared to last year, and this decline is becoming more evident. We have not yet observed a bottoming out or signs of recovery, indicating that the ad-supported market is still worsening. On the subscription front, we have assessed our performance and noted a softer release schedule primarily based in the U.S. this quarter. We believe this is contributing to the slowdown, which could carry into our fiscal Q2. However, since our release schedule is focused on the second half of the year, we remain optimistic about our upcoming performance and the strength of our releases in that time frame.

Kutgun Maral, Analyst

Great. Thanks, Eric.

Eric Levin, CFO

Thank you.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. And our last question will come from Stephen Laszczyk from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Stephen Laszczyk, Analyst

Hi, great. Good morning and thanks for taking the question. Maybe just a follow-up on that last ad-supported question, Eric. Could you remind us what portion of your total streaming revenues are driven by ad-supported, excluding the emerging deals? And to what extent there might be any timing differences in those revenues versus what we see out of the likes of Spotify or YouTube?

Eric Levin, CFO

There shouldn't be a significant timing difference. I think streaming revenue is in the low teens, possibly around 12 or 13. We've noticed a slowdown in that area, but there shouldn't be any substantial timing difference, even though others in the market are experiencing it.

Stephen Laszczyk, Analyst

Got it, thanks for that. And maybe just one on Sync. Could you maybe talk a little bit more about the types of conversations your team is having with your Sync partners, maybe how much visibility they have into that piece of content creation or ad spend this year and maybe how that's trending compared to what we've seen in years past? Thank you.

Eric Levin, CFO

If you're referring to the slowdown in the advertising markets affecting Sync growth trends, then yes, to some extent, we have observed an impact in the commercial and advertising sectors. Growth in that category has indeed slowed, although our teams are still identifying numerous opportunities for growth in film, TV, and other categories, as well as in global Sync and non-U.S.-based Sync. Last year, Sync in both recorded music and publishing grew at around 20% year-on-year, which was quite remarkable, partly thanks to the new technologies we have implemented, improving our teams and productivity in those markets. However, we do perceive a somewhat softer market for Sync this quarter. We are managing that revenue line in both recorded music and publishing for sustained growth, but it is a more challenging environment. Our team is focusing on the areas that are more active and crucial for essential Syncs, and we are noticing some weakness in the commercial ad market.

Stephen Laszczyk, Analyst

Thank you very much.

Eric Levin, CFO

Thanks, Stephen. Greatly appreciate it.

Operator, Operator

And I am showing no further questions from our phone lines. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Robert Kyncl for any closing remarks.

Robert Kyncl, CEO

All right. So thank you everyone for dialing in, asking questions, and continuing to be interested in our business. I look forward to speaking with you frequently. And as I get up to speed, I promise to continue to share more and more information in a very straightforward and transparent manner. So thank you very much. Have a great day.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation; you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.