Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) research

Equibles Research on Firefly Aerospace Inc. — every figure computed straight from SEC filings and market data.

Research Thesis July 16, 2026

Rocket Lab: Backlog is converting, but the $39B market cap is paying for a Neutron debut the company has yet to validate

Rocket Lab enters Q2 2026 with record backlog of $2,219.8M and guided revenue of $225.0M–$240.0M, yet the stock trades at -55.2% from its $150.23 high on a $39.0B market cap against $679.6M of trailing revenue — a gap the equity-funded growth model and the un-flown Neutron debut have to close.