FLY · Firefly Aerospace Inc.
Price & Indicators
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AI Brief
TL;DR.
AI-generated from the earnings call and 8-K · may contain errors · not investment advice
Ask ALVIS about this →Equibles Research
our published analysis of this company-
Research ThesisRocket Lab's $2.2B backlog makes the bull case bigger than Neutron
Rocket Lab's record Q1 and $2.2B backlog show the bull case no longer rests on Neutron alone. The proposed Iridium merger could add a recurring-services engine, while financing, dilution and execution remain the price of that upside.
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Research ThesisRocket Lab: Backlog is converting, but the $39B market cap is paying for a Neutron debut the company has yet to validate
Rocket Lab enters Q2 2026 with record backlog of $2,219.8M and guided revenue of $225.0M–$240.0M, yet the stock trades at -55.2% from its $150.23 high on a $39.0B market cap against $679.6M of trailing revenue — a gap the equity-funded growth model and the un-flown Neutron debut have to close.
Equibles Rating
blended score · not investment adviceBlended from price, momentum, positioning, fundamentals & volatility · daily-close · not investment advice. Market backdrop is context, not part of the score.
Guidance & track record
Guidance from company 8-Ks · delivered figures from as-reported statements · no analyst estimates involved.
Technicals
trend & momentum for long-term holders NeutralIllustrative technical + ownership context — a signal mix, not investment advice.
Key metrics
the company's own KPIs, from written earnings releases and filings| Metric | Latest | Period | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA non-GAAP | -$61.21M | the three months ended June 30, 2026 filing | — |
| Non-GAAP Net Loss Per Share non-GAAP | -$0.88 | Six Months Ended June 30, 2026 | — |
Figures exactly as the company stated them in writing · click a metric with a to chart its history · period links open the stating document · "filing" marks figures stated in the 10-K/10-Q · YoY needs an exactly comparable prior-year period
Versus peers
Aerospace & Defense — same industry group| Company | Mkt cap | YTD | Rev growth Y/Y | P/E | Short % shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FLY
this stock
Firefly Aerospace Inc.
|
$4.46B | +19.2% | +163.0% | — | 6.5% |
|
SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies Corp
|
$1.85T | — | — | — | 1.6% |
|
GE
General Electric Co
|
$382.22B | +19.6% | +18.5% | 43.4 | 1.4% |
|
RTX
RTX Corp
|
$300.51B | +21.6% | +17.1% | 39.3 | 1.3% |
|
EADSF
Airbus SE/ADR
|
$194.35B | +7.1% | — | — | 0.1% |
Peers by industry group · P/E from as-reported trailing EPS · short % is of shares outstanding
At a glance
key data from every sectionPerformance
| 5D | 20D | 120D | MTD | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLY | -0.2% | +38.4% | +33.5% | +31.2% | +19.2% |
| SPY | +0.4% | +4.5% | +13.8% | +3.9% | +13.9% |
| vs SPY | -0.6% | +34.0% | +19.7% | +27.3% | +5.4% |