Probabilities Fund Management, LLC
CIK
1608604
Location
WHITE PLAINS, NY
Portfolio Value
Micro
$14,535,940
Diversification
Highly concentrated
Filing Date
Global Rank
#6,296
/ 6,772
▼ 718
Top Industry
Software - Infrastructure
36.5%
3Y Alpha vs SPY
-0.8%
Period ended 4 years ago
Filed Feb 11, 2022 · 4y
8 quarters · since Mar 2020
Clone Performance
Jun 2023–Jun 2026 · vs SPYHypothetical growth of cloning every reported 13F position and rebalancing on each filing, indexed to the same start.
Cloned portfolio
+72.7%
SPY
+76.3%
Annualised alpha
-0.8%
Max drawdown
−22.0%
Estimate. 13F holdings are quarter-lagged and long-only, so the clone rebalances about 45 days after each period end — when the filing becomes public — and excludes options and short positions. Past performance does not predict future results.
Portfolio Concentration
7 positions · as of Dec 31, 2021 · Δ vs Sep 30, 2021Top Position
39.0%
+0.0 pts
Top 5
95.5%
−0.4 pts
Top 10
100.0%
0.0 pts
HHI
3,070
Highly concentrated−96
Portfolio Trend
8 quarters · across all stocks
Sector Breakdown
As of Dec 31, 2021| Sector | % Portfolio | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Unclassified | 76.4% | $11,104,284 |
| Technology | 13.2% | $1,919,859 |
| Real Estate | 7.6% | $1,104,222 |
| Consumer Defensive | 2.8% | $407,575 |
Last Quarter's Activity
Export CSVAdded To
Positions the filer increasedNo qualifying positions this quarter.
Trimmed
Positions the filer reduced
4 positions
| Ticker | Company | Δ Shares | Shares | Value | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA | Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust | −1,560 | 14,970 | $5,438,900 | |
| QQQ | Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 | −1,360 | 14,240 | $5,665,384 | |
| IIPR | Innovative Industrial Properties Inc | −1,000 | 4,200 | $1,104,222 | |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | −360 | 1,400 | $248,598 | |
| No positions match the current search. | |||||
New Positions
Positions the filer opened this quarterNo qualifying positions this quarter.
Sold Out
Positions the filer fully exitedNo qualifying positions this quarter.
7 positions ·
$14,535,940 total
· as of Dec 31, 2021
| Ticker | Company | Type | Shares | Value (USD) | % of Portfolio | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ |
Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1
|
Reduced | 14,240 | $5,665,384 | 38.98% | |
| DIA |
Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
|
Reduced | 14,970 | $5,438,900 | 37.42% | |
| MSFT |
Microsoft Corp
Technology
|
Held | 3,720 | $1,251,110 | 8.61% | |
| IIPR |
Innovative Industrial Properties Inc
Real Estate
|
Reduced | 4,200 | $1,104,222 | 7.60% | |
| AMAT |
Applied Materials Inc /De
Technology
|
Held | 2,670 | $420,151 | 2.89% | |
| STZ |
Constellation Brands, Inc.
Consumer Defensive
|
Held | 1,624 | $407,575 | 2.80% | |
| AAPL |
Apple Inc.
Technology
|
Reduced | 1,400 | $248,598 | 1.71% |