Earnings Call Transcript
Citigroup Inc (C)
Earnings Call Transcript - C Q1 2023
Operator, Operator
Hello and welcome to Citi’s First Quarter 2023 Earnings Review with the Chief Executive Officer, Jane Fraser; and Chief Financial Officer, Mark Mason. Today’s call will be hosted by Jen Landis, Head of Citi Investor Relations. Also, as a reminder, this conference is being recorded today. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. Ms. Landis, you may begin.
Jen Landis, Head of Investor Relations
Thank you, operator. Good morning and thank you all for joining us. I’d like to remind you that today’s presentation, which is available for download on our website, citigroup.com, may contain forward-looking statements, which are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from these statements due to a variety of factors, including those described in our SEC filings. With that, I will turn it over to Jane.
Jane Fraser, CEO
Thank you, Jen, and hello to everyone joining us today. Well, 2023 is shaping up to be another interesting year. Given the tumultuous events of the last few weeks, I am going to share some observations and then we will turn to what was a good quarter. First, our banking system as a whole is very strong. While a small handful of institutions still have challenges to overcome, the U.S. financial system remains unmatched globally. And I feel confident saying that as someone who has worked in many different systems around the world. The U.S. system comprises a healthy mix of community banks, regional banks, and larger global banks, including Citi. We all have important but different roles to play, serving different clients with different needs and on different scales. I would also point to the rapid response by state, federal, and international regulators that help reinforce confidence in the system at a very critical juncture. I am pleased that Citi has been a source of stability for the financial system and a source of strength for our clients. That’s not an accident. We are in a position to play this role because our strategy is delivering a simpler, more focused bank. We benefit from a diversified earnings base and resilient business model. This is reinforced by our robust balance sheet management, liquidity position, and strong risk management frameworks. We are disciplined in how we run the firm from client selection to capital planning. And it’s also thanks to our people. And I want to express my pride in our colleagues around the world who worked tirelessly last month to serve clients as they turn to Citi as a port in the storm. Recent events have shown that prudent asset and liability management is absolutely paramount. While Mark is going to walk you through our approach and our focus on interest rate risk, liquidity, and capital, I do want to mention a few things myself. In terms of assets, our loans are high quality and short duration. We have highly liquid investment securities and a significant amount of cash. We have over $1 trillion worth of available liquidity resources, including $584 billion of high-quality liquid assets and a liquidity coverage ratio of 120%. And we maintain a diverse set of funding sources, including over $1.3 trillion of deposits across corporates, consumers, industries, and regions, many of which are operational in nature. Indeed, the cornerstone is our institutional deposit base, which comprises about 60% of our deposits. Most of these deposits are particularly sticky because they sit in operating accounts that are fully integrated into how our multinational clients run their businesses around the world from their payrolls, their supply chains, their cash, and liquidity management. 80% of these deposits are with clients who use all three of our integrated services: payments and collections, liquidity management, and working capital solutions. The data that we aggregate from these deposits and their related flows is fundamental to how our clients manage their efficiency, risk, and compliance. And this greatly increases our deposit stickiness. It’s also why nearly 80% of these deposits are from client relationships that are 15 years old or more. Finally, we operate a strong risk framework that looks at both assets and liability concentrations across client segments, industry, and region. And we are confident in the size and nature of our exposures, given our very rigorous stress testing. We also diligently manage counterparty risk, which is critical given the interconnectedness of financial institutions. We are in a strong position to navigate whatever environment we face, which is particularly relevant given the degree of uncertainty today. The Fed continues to use rate policy to battle inflation, which has been more than stubborn in services even as we see signs of cooling in labor and manufacturing. We expect the recent events to be disinflationary and for credit to contract. We believe it’s now more likely that the U.S. will enter into a shallow recession later this year. That could be exacerbated in depth and duration in a more severe credit crunch. But right now, the biggest unknown is the impact on terminal short-term U.S. interest rates and, of course, how the debt ceiling plays out. In Europe, the ECB is on a similar but more difficult quest to combat inflation. They have asked for help from lower-than-expected energy prices and the outlook continues to be a bit brighter. However, the war in Ukraine sadly shows no sign of ending, and Europe faces more structural challenges, such as the need for increased defense spending, higher energy costs, and fiscal burdens that will make efforts to dampen inflation and stimulate growth more difficult. In Asia, the reopening of China is adding to the momentum in the region, although the Chinese consumer has been slower to rebound than expected. I observed many green shoots firsthand talking to our clients and our bankers in my various trips to India, Japan, and Hong Kong this year. We have to keep a close eye on geopolitics as the U.S.-China relationship becomes increasingly strained and economic blocks fragment. And we see this translate into a shift in flows and heightened cross-border volume across Treasury and Trade Solutions and our global network. Now turning to how we performed this quarter. We reported net income of $4.6 billion and an earnings per share of $2.19. We had good revenue growth of 6% excluding divestitures, and both revenue and expenses were in line with our guidance. Our Return on Tangible Common Equity of nearly 11% benefited from the closing of the sales of our consumer businesses in India and Vietnam and would have been over 9% without those gains. Let me highlight our operating performance in each of our 5 core businesses. In Services, Treasury and Trade Solutions continued to go from strength to strength with revenues up 31%. Non-interest revenue was up 11% quarter-on-quarter on the back of increased cross-border activity and good performance in commercial cards due to the rebound of corporate travel. Securities Services wasn’t too shabby either, up 23% as we executed on new mandates, onboarded new assets under custody and benefited from higher rates. Within markets, our fixed income revenues were up 4% from a year ago. We benefited from excellent performance in rates and continued engagement from our corporate clients. The first quarter of 2022 was no slouch, as you may recall, but this quarter was our third best in a decade. Equities was much weaker, however, down markedly in both derivatives and cash, although it still had revenues north of $1 billion. Banking was down again, but there were signs of the beginning of a pickup, including increased activity in the investment-grade market. In U.S. Personal Banking, our cards businesses gained momentum as all drivers continued to normalize to pre-COVID levels and beyond. Branded Cards and Retail Services saw revenues up 18% and 24%. Retail Banking saw some growth as we continue to see good momentum in mortgages and installment lending and also experienced a significant increase in digital deposits. We did see a notable softening in consumer spending growth over the course of the quarter. Travel and entertainment continued to grow in March, but essentials were flat, and almost all other spend categories were down. Savings rates are below historic averages. And while the upper quintile of household income still have roughly $1 trillion in excess savings, the savings of the lower quintiles have been significantly drawn down. So we’re keeping a diligent eye on the lower FICO bands as economic growth and services spending slows. Finally, while revenues were down again, we remain confident about the prospects of our Wealth business. Despite the challenging headwinds, growth in Citigold accounts, client acquisition, and client advisors were all solid, and we expect these drivers to flow through to revenues later this year and beyond. We also saw the early signs of a long-awaited Asian recovery. We built credit reserves this quarter on the back of growth in revolving balances in cards and a poorer macro outlook. Non-Current Loans continued to normalize in consumer while the health of our corporate base was evident in another quarter of very low Non-Performing Loans. Finally, we continue to generate capital through our earnings. With our Common Equity Tier 1 ratio now at 13.4%, we have room to absorb the temporary upfront impact should we sign a deal for Mexico. As you know, we continue to pursue a dual-path strategy and we are committed to increasing the amount of capital we return to our shareholders over time. As you can see from Slide 3, in addition to good operating performance from our businesses and despite everything else going on in the industry, we got a lot done this quarter as we implement the strategy we shared with you at Investor Day. We closed the sales of our consumer businesses in India and Vietnam. Indonesia and Taiwan are next on the list to close later in the year. Our Asian consumer sales will then be complete, and we are intensifying our efforts to eliminate stranded costs and simplify our organizational structure. We made some significant leadership announcements. I’m delighted that Andy Sieg will join Citi at my table as the new Head of Wealth Management. Andy is a widely respected leader in this space and comes to us after running an $18 billion business with $2.8 trillion in client balances. He is the latest and most visible example of the excellent talent we have attracted over the last couple of years. With Karen Peetz retiring, we named Anand Selva as our Chief Operating Officer and asked him to take on running our enterprise-wide Transformation program, in addition to his current responsibilities. Anand has been at Citi for over three decades and has a strong track record of delivering results. In terms of our Transformation, we are completely focused on executing our plans to address the consent orders and improve our risk and control environment. Mark will walk you through specific examples of how we’re modernizing our infrastructure, simplifying processes, and improving data quality. Importantly, these efforts are improving the client experience and helping us deliver Citi’s core capabilities to them. To wrap up, it’s been one year since our Investor Day, and I’m proud of the progress we’ve made and our relentless focus on delivering. Our strategy is clear. Our business model is resilient and diversified. Our balance sheet is strong. We’re making good progress on execution. Amidst considerable turmoil, we are delivering on our guidance and our commitments. Our team is determined to continue delivering with excellence. And with that, I would like to turn it over to Mark, and then we will be delighted, as always, to take your questions.
Mark Mason, CFO
Thanks, Jane, and good morning everyone. I am going to start with the firm-wide financial results, focusing on year-over-year comparisons for the first quarter, unless I indicate otherwise; and spend a little more time on expenses, our balance sheet, and capital; then I will turn to the results of each segment. On Slide 4, we show financial results for the full firm. In the first quarter, we reported net income of approximately $4.6 billion and an earnings per share of $2.19 and a Return on Tangible Common Equity of nearly 11% on $21.4 billion of revenues. Embedded in these results are pretax divestiture-related impacts of approximately $950 million, largely driven by the gain on the sale of the India Consumer business. Excluding these items, earnings per share was $1.86, with a Return on Tangible Common Equity of over 9%. In the quarter, total revenues increased by 12% on a reported basis and increased 6%, excluding divestiture-related impacts, as strength across Services, Fixed Income, and U.S. Personal Banking was partially offset by declines in Investment Banking, Equity Markets, and Wealth, as well as the revenue reduction from the closed exit and wind down. Our results include expenses of $13.3 billion, an increase of 1% versus the prior year. Excluding divestiture-related costs in the prior year, expenses increased 5%, largely driven by transformation, other risk and control investments, and inflation, partially offset by productivity savings and the expense reductions from the exit and wind-downs. Cost of credit was approximately $2 billion, primarily driven by the continued normalization in consumer credit losses and an allowance for credit losses and other provision build of approximately $700 million, largely related to a deterioration in macroeconomic assumptions and growth in card revolving balances. At the end of the quarter, we had nearly $20 billion in total reserves with a reserve-to-funded loan ratio of approximately 2.7%. On Slide 5, we show an expense walk for the first quarter with the key underlying drivers. Transformation investments drove 1% of the growth, largely in the areas of data, finance, and risk and control programs. 4% of the increase was driven by structural factors, largely in the form of compensation and benefits, including the full-year impact of the individuals hired last year as well as those hired in the first quarter. Embedded in the structural bucket are a few key items. First, other risk and control investments that are enterprise-wide and in the businesses, which make up about 2% of the total expense increase. Second, the impact of additional front and back-office hires. Third, inflation and severance costs. All of this was partially offset by productivity savings, as well as the benefit from foreign exchange translation and the expense reduction from the exits. Across the firm, technology-related expenses grew 12%. We recognize these investments have driven a significant increase in expenses, but they are crucial to modernize the firm, address the consent orders, and position Citi for success in the years to come. Now turning to Slide 6, I’d like to spend a few minutes giving you some tangible examples of what we’re investing in and the benefits we’ll see over time. In many cases, these investments will simplify our processes and platforms. For example, we are retiring and consolidating 20 cash equities platforms to one single modern platform, eliminating costs over time. Additionally, we have consolidated 11 platforms to one global sanctions screening platform, reducing false alerts, improving the client experience, and cutting costs. We’re also modernizing our infrastructure and enhancing the security of our data and information by improving cybersecurity through the use of AI and enhancing the security of our infrastructure and devices, leading to fewer operating losses. We are leveraging industry-leading cloud-based solutions to modernize and streamline the connectivity between our front-office systems and the general ledger, eliminating manual processes and operating costs over time. We’re driving the strategy by investing in the client experience, both in terms of our technology interface and innovative new products. We launched our cloud-based instant payments platform for e-commerce clients in Treasury and Trade Solutions. We’re also deploying CitiDirect Commercial Banking, our mobile and digital interface for commercial clients, so they too can open accounts and access all products and services across the Institutional Clients Group in the same way our large corporate clients do. Finally, we’re investing in data to create advanced decision-making, client-targeting, and risk management capabilities, which has allowed us to enhance our returns through greater Risk-Weighted Asset efficiency. We expect many of these investments to generate efficiencies that will allow us to self-fund future investments over time. On Slide 7, we show net interest income, deposits, and loans, where I’ll speak to sequential variation. In the first quarter, net interest income increased by approximately $80 million, largely driven by interest-earning balances in cards. Average loans were up slightly as growth in Personal Banking and Wealth Management was largely offset by a decline in Institutional Clients Group. Average deposits were also up slightly, driven by growth in both Personal Banking and Wealth Management and Institutional Clients Group, and our net interest margin increased 2 basis points. On Slide 8, we show key consumer and corporate credit metrics. We’re well reserved for the current environment with nearly $20 billion in reserves. Our reserves to funded loan ratio was approximately 2.7%. In Personal Banking and Wealth Management, 44% of our lending exposures are in U.S. cards. Of that exposure, nearly 80% is to customers with FICO scores of 680 or higher. Non-Current Loan rates, while reflecting some typical seasonality this quarter, are still below pre-COVID levels and are normalizing in line with our expectations. The remaining 56% of our Personal Banking and Wealth Management lending exposure is largely in wealth and predominantly mortgages and margin lending. In our Institutional Clients Group portfolio, approximately 85% of our total exposure is investment grade. Of the international exposure, approximately 90% is investment grade or exposure to multinational clients or their subsidiaries. Corporate non-accrual loans remain low at about 40 basis points of total loans. As you can see on the page, we break out our commercial real estate lending exposures across Institutional Clients Group and Personal Banking and Wealth Management, which total $66 billion, of which 90% is investment grade. So, while the macro and geopolitical environment remains uncertain, we feel very good about our asset quality, exposures, and reserve levels, and we continuously review and stress the portfolio under a range of scenarios. On Slide 9, we show our summary balance sheet and key capital and liquidity metrics. We’ve added a few additional metrics to the page to provide more transparency into how we manage the balance sheet. We maintain a very strong $2.5 trillion balance sheet, which is funded in part by a well-diversified $1.3 trillion deposit base across regions, industries, customers, and account types, which is deployed into high-quality diversified assets. Our balance sheet is a reflection of our strategy and well-diversified business model. We leverage our unique assets and capabilities to serve corporates, financial institutions, investors, and individuals with global needs. First, the majority of our deposits, $819 billion, are institutional and span 90 countries. The majority of these institutional deposits tend to be interest rate sensitive. So when rates go up, we reprice the deposits accordingly, but that reprice takes into account the overall client relationship as well as the level of rates. Despite this interest rate sensitivity, these deposits tend to be stable as they are tied to the operational services that we provide. And these institutional deposits are complemented by $437 billion of U.S. retail consumer and global wealth deposits, as you can see on the bottom right side of the page. These deposits are well diversified across the Private Bank, Citigold, Retail, and Wealth at Work, as well as across regions and products, with 75% of U.S. Citigold clients and approximately 50% of ultra-high net worth clients having been with Citi for more than 10 years. Our wealth deposits tend to also be interest rate sensitive, but this usually results in our customers moving to higher-yielding deposits and investment products. Now turning to the asset side. At a high level, you can think of our deposits being largely deployed in three asset buckets: loans, investment securities, and cash, which complement the interest rate sensitivity and liquidity value of our liabilities. This deployment is also linked to our strategy. We use our resources to lend and transact with our clients in ways that deepen the relationship and drive returns for our shareholders while maintaining strong liquidity and capital. Our $652 billion loan portfolio is well diversified across consumer and corporate loans, and the duration of the total portfolio is approximately 1.3 years as the majority of these loans are variable rate. About 35% of our balance sheet is in cash and investment securities, contributing to our $1 trillion of available liquidity resources. At the end of the quarter, we had a liquidity coverage ratio of 120%, which means we have roughly $100 billion of high-quality liquid assets in excess of the amount required by the rule to cover stressed outflows. You can see the details of this on Page 27 in the appendix. Just as important as the quantum of liquidity is the composition and duration of that liquidity, and our $513 billion investment portfolio consists largely of highly liquid U.S. Treasury, agency, and other sovereign bonds and is split evenly between available for sale and held to maturity, where we’ve maintained a short duration of less than three years, so we could benefit from higher interest rates. We actively and prudently manage our assets and liabilities by considering a range of possible stress scenarios and how they might impact interest rate risks, liquidity, and capital. In summary, our assets and liabilities are aligned across interest rate sensitivity, liquidity value, and duration, reflecting a diversified business model and execution of our strategy. On Slide 10, we show a sequential Common Equity Tier 1 walk to provide more detail on the drivers this quarter. Walking from the end of the fourth quarter, first, we generated $4.3 billion of net income to common, which added 38 basis points; second, we returned $1 billion in the form of common dividends, which drove a reduction of about 9 basis points; third, impact on accumulated other comprehensive income through our available-for-sale investment portfolio drove a 7 basis point increase; and finally, the remaining 4 basis point increase was largely driven by the Risk-Weighted Asset benefit from closing our consumer exits. We ended the quarter with a 13.4% Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio, approximately 40 basis points higher than last quarter, and this includes a 100 basis point internal management buffer. As it relates to buybacks, we did not buy back any stock this quarter, and we will continue to make that decision on a quarter-by-quarter basis. On Slide 11, we show the results for our Institutional Clients Group for the first quarter. Revenues were up 1% this quarter, largely driven by Services and Fixed Income, mostly offset by Investment Banking and Equities. Expenses increased 4%, driven by transformation, other risk and control investments, and volume-related expenses, partially offset by foreign exchange translation and productivity savings. Cost of credit was a $72 million benefit as an allowance for credit losses release more than offset net credit losses. This resulted in net income of approximately $3.3 billion, up 23% driven by the lower cost of credit and higher revenues, partially offset by higher expenses. The Institutional Clients Group delivered a 13.8% Return on Tangible Common Equity for the quarter. Average loans were down 2%, reflecting discipline around our strategy and returns. Average deposits were up 3% as we continue to acquire new clients and deepen relationships with existing ones. Sequentially, average deposits were up 1%, and on an end-of-period basis, Institutional Clients Group deposits were down 3% sequentially, driven by seasonality as our clients tend to make tax payments in the first quarter. On Slide 12, we show revenue performance by business and the key drivers we laid out at Investor Day. In Treasury and Trade Solutions, revenues were up 31%, driven by a 41% growth in net interest income and 13% in non-interest revenue with growth across all client segments. We continue to see healthy underlying drivers in Treasury and Trade Solutions that indicate consistently strong client activity with U.S. dollar clearing volumes up 6%, reflecting continued SWIFT share gains; cross-border flows up 10%, outpacing global GDP growth; and commercial card volumes up roughly 40%, led by spending in travel. While the rate environment drove about 60% of the growth this quarter, business actions drove the remaining 40% as we continue to deepen relationships with existing clients and win new clients. Client wins are up approximately 50% across all segments, which include marquee transactions where we are serving as the client’s primary operating bank. In Securities Services, revenues grew 23%, as net interest income grew 94%, driven by higher interest rates across currency, partially offset by a 6% decrease in non-interest revenue due to the impact of market valuations. We are pleased with the execution in Securities Services as we continue to onboard assets under custody and administration from significant client wins, and we feel very good about the pipeline of new deals. As a reminder, the services businesses are central to our strategy and are two of our higher-returning businesses with strong linkages across the firm. Markets revenues were down 4% as growth in Fixed Income was more than offset by Equities. Fixed Income revenues were up 4% relative to a very strong quarter last year, as strength in our rates franchise was partially offset by a decline in foreign exchange and commodities. Equities revenues were down 25%, also relative to a strong quarter last year, primarily reflecting reduced client activity in cash and equity derivatives. Corporate client flows remain strong and stable, and we continue to make solid progress on our revenue to Risk-Weighted Asset target. Finally, Banking revenues, excluding gains and losses on loan hedges, were down 21%, driven by Investment Banking as heightened macro uncertainty and volatility continued to impact client activity. Having said that, we do see revenue growth sequentially, largely driven by the investment-grade market opening up. Overall, while the market environment remains challenging, we feel good about the progress that we’re making in Institutional Clients Group. Now turning to Slide 13, we show the results for our Personal Banking and Wealth Management business. Revenues were up 9%, driven by net interest income growth of 10%, partially offset by a 1% decline in non-interest revenue due to lower investment product revenues in Wealth. Expenses were also up 9%, predominantly driven by investments in transformation and other risk and control initiatives. Cost of credit was $1.6 billion, driven by higher net credit losses as we continue to see normalization in our card portfolios and a reserve build of approximately $500 million, largely driven by a deterioration in macroeconomic assumptions and growth in card revolving balances. Average loans increased 7% driven by cards, mortgages, and installment lending. Average deposits decreased 3%, largely reflecting our wealth clients putting cash to work in fixed-income investments on our platform. Personal Banking and Wealth Management delivered a Return on Tangible Common Equity of 5.5%, largely driven by higher credit costs. On Slide 14, we show Personal Banking and Wealth Management revenues by product as well as key business drivers and metrics. Branded cards revenues were up 18%, driven by higher net interest income. We continue to see strong underlying drivers with new account acquisitions up 17%; card spend volumes up 9%; and average loans up 15%. Retail services revenues were up 24%, also driven by higher net interest income. For both card portfolios, we continue to see payment rates decline. That, combined with the investments we’ve been making, contributed to growth in interest-earning balances of 18% in branded cards and 11% in Retail Services. Retail Banking revenues were up 3%, primarily driven by higher mortgage revenue and strong growth in personal installment lending, partially offset by the impact of the transfer of relationships and the associated deposits to our Wealth business. Consistent with the strategy, we continue to leverage our retail network to drive over 13,000 Wealth referrals in the first quarter. Wealth revenues were down 9%, driven by continued investment fee headwinds and higher deposit costs, particularly in the Private Bank. However, we did see notable improvement in revenues in Asia, which were up approximately 20% on a sequential basis. Client Advisors were up 3%, and we are seeing net new investment inflows and strong new client acquisitions across our Wealth business, with new clients in the Private Bank and Wealth at Work up 62% and 81%, respectively. While the environment continues to remain challenging for Wealth, we’re seeing strong underlying business drivers as we execute against our strategy. On Slide 15, we show results for legacy franchise. Revenues grew 48%, driven by a gain on the sale of our Consumer business in India, partially offset by the wind-downs and closed consumer exits. Expenses decreased 24%, largely driven by the absence of a goodwill impairment we had in the prior year as well as the impact of the wind-downs and closed consumer exits. On Slide 16, we show results for Corporate/Other for the first quarter. Revenues increased, largely driven by higher net revenue from the investment portfolio. Expenses increased, driven by transformation and other risk and control investments, partially offset by a reduction in consulting fees. Before we move to Q&A, I’d like to end with a few key points. Despite recent events and the economic uncertainty that remains, our full-year outlook for revenue and expenses remains unchanged. We have a very strong balance sheet with a diversified set of assets and funding sources and ample capital and liquidity. This positions us well to serve clients and navigate any number of scenarios. We’re seeing solid momentum in the underlying drivers of the majority of our businesses and continue to execute on our strategy. The financial path will not be linear, but we are confident that we can achieve our medium-term targets. Finally, I’m incredibly proud of how our firm and our employees have continued to help our clients navigate the recent environment and support the health of the overall banking system. With that, Jane and I would be happy to take your questions.
Operator, Operator
And our first question will come from Glenn Schorr with Evercore. Your line is open.
Glenn Schorr, Analyst
Hi, thank you. Simple one. I appreciate the many, many moving parts, but your first quarter net interest income and revenue production was great. If you just annualize it, you’re handily ahead of your full-year guide. So I’m just curious about how you’re thinking about maintaining the guide but running ahead of schedule.
Mark Mason, CFO
Yes. Thanks, Glenn. Good morning. I appreciate the question. Look, we did have a very solid first quarter. But as Jane mentioned in her prepared remarks, there are a number of things that are still out there in the global macro environment that are uncertain and unclear, including, frankly, as we contemplate the direction of rates and what’s required to tame inflation, let alone the uncertainty that we’ve seen in parts of the sector here through the quarter. When I think about that and I think about, frankly, how betas have evolved and the likelihood of a recession in the back half of the year, which we had built into our outlook, I remain comfortable with the guidance that we’ve set here. When you think about where that comes from, the strength in Treasury and Trade Solutions, the strength in Securities Services, both benefiting from rate hikes we saw last year, but also from deepening relationships with new and existing clients. The card momentum, which is really about seeing more revolving activity as payment rates start to slow, and the recovery in Investment Banking and Wealth is not as swift as we would like. When I put those things together, there are certainly some puts and takes that speak to the diversification of our business model, but it leaves me in a place where I’m comfortable with the guidance that we’ve set. If that changes, we will certainly update you, but that’s where we are.
Glenn Schorr, Analyst
Well, I appreciate that. Maybe if I could follow up on your comments and the previous ones on Treasury and Trade Solutions and Securities Services. I tried to learn from all my mistakes, I make a lot of them. But in 2008, we thought housing prices couldn’t go down much, and then they went down a lot, and we all adapt. The same thing in March; we thought deposits couldn’t leave a bank so quickly, but they did. So Mark, Slide 25 and 26 people should look at because they are great, and they show the stability of your deposit franchise. But I’m curious if history can change at all, meaning right now, those are cash and operating deposits that clients keep with you and need you, and you’re fully integrated. But do you have client concentrations we should know about? Or how are you thinking about any big changes that can happen in terms of client behavior relative to the past in what they keep at any given bank? I know that’s a tough one.
Jane Fraser, CEO
Yes, Glenn, I’ll kick it off and pass it over to Mark. I feel very comfortable about how very well-diversified our deposit bases across different countries, industries, clients, and currencies. It’s extremely strong in that respect. As you say, the majority of the institutional deposits are integrated into the operating accounts around the world to enable the clients to run their day-to-day operations, the payroll, the working capital, the supplier financing, etcetera. What’s changed in the more digital world is, frankly, these have become even stickier because of the amount of data, the extent of integration into technology platforms and systems of the clients, and the value we extract and present back to clients from the combination of our foreign exchange, trade, cash, and etcetera flows is incredibly important for driving their efficiency, risk management, and financial performance. The extent of that diversification and the increasing stickiness versus history is something that we’re certainly not complacent about, but I think is why you see some of the pages we put into the deck as well, including in the back, on just the consistency of this space. Mark, what would you add?
Mark Mason, CFO
I think that’s exactly right, Jane. I’m glad you pointed out Pages 25 and 26, which clearly lay out that diversification but also the scale and stability of those deposits over an extended period of time. The only thing I’d add is that we’re in an environment where quantitative tightening is occurring, and that’s going to have a broad industry impact, as we’ve started to see already. However, we’re also in an environment where rates are increasing. We will see how that plays out for the balance of the year. That has an impact on betas, but we shouldn’t mistake price sensitivity or interest rate sensitivity with the stickiness of the deposits. We’ve talked about betas increasing, particularly in our Treasury and Trade Solutions portfolio, more so in the U.S.; it will continue to increase outside of the U.S., but we will work the relationship we have with those clients and the breadth of services we offer to influence and impact pricing. More importantly, because of their operating nature, we do see them as very stable.
Mike Mayo, Analyst
Hi, Jane, I challenged you a couple of earnings calls ago about the complexity created by being in so many countries. You said Treasury and Trade Solutions was your crown jewel, and here, it’s up almost one-third year-over-year. So so far, so good since your Investor Day. Can you talk about some of the fee growth? I mean we kind of understand the net interest income growth, but the fee growth is double digits also. What’s happening to give you double-digit top-line growth there?
Jane Fraser, CEO
Thank you, Mike, and a great question. I think one of the numbers I’m almost more happy about than the stellar revenue growth was the fee growth quarter-over-quarter here. Because, obviously, we’ve been benefiting in Treasury and Trade Solutions from the rate environment, but we’ve also been benefiting from the drivers behind the franchise. The fee revenues are coming from multiple different products and different offerings we have here. We consistently look at growing our fee revenue as a percentage of the underlying growth in Treasury and Trade Solutions. It got masked a bit when the rates environment was growing so much, but the different areas there around the world are making a big difference for the strength and quality of our earnings.
Mark Mason, CFO
Yes, look, there is certainly more opportunity in terms of how rates move and capturing net interest income. As you pointed out, outside of the U.S., we articulate our interest rate exposure for a parallel shift, and that mix as of the end of last year was the 90-10 you mentioned for non-U.S. As I sit here, it probably skews a little less non-U.S. and a little bit more toward the U.S., and you’ll see that in the Q. With that said, I mentioned earlier, there is still a bit of uncertainty in how rates evolve here in the U.S. We will see how betas evolve. We reached terminal betas in the U.S. with our clients at the end of last year. We will see what happens with pricing through the balance of 2023. Betas outside the U.S. are not quite at terminal levels and so we will see the pacing of that, again, in light of how the interest rate curve might evolve and how we’ve seen the broader sector turmoil play out. That could, in fact, play to our benefit. But we are also, again, in an environment where quantitative tightening is still at play. The final point I’d make, Mike, is that in that net interest income is legacy net interest income. As we continue with our wind downs and divestitures, that’s going to be a headwind we will have to deal with.
Betsy Graseck, Analyst
Hi, good morning.
Mark Mason, CFO
Good morning.
Betsy Graseck, Analyst
I know during the prepared remarks you talked a bit about Andy Sieg coming on board. I wanted to understand how to think about the outlook for what you’re doing with Wealth, not only in the U.S. but the non-U.S. locations, and also try to understand how much capital you think you could apply to that business relative to what you have today? Thanks.
Jane Fraser, CEO
Betsy, we’re obviously delighted that Andy is joining as our new Global Head of Wealth around my table. He’s a tremendous leader with a great track record driving growth. He has deep product and digital expertise, proven people leader, and we will certainly be taking full advantage of his expertise and experience in the U.S. We’re not shifting our strategy in Wealth. Its mandate is consistent with the strategy we laid out at Investor Day. We see a lot of potential for growth in Asia as we fill in the coverage across the full wealth spectrum there. We will be scaling up in the U.S. by building out the investment offering and cross-selling into our existing and new clients across the country. We see tremendous potential for growth in our Private Bank and the family office franchise around the world. There are a lot of synergies to be realized in terms of referrals and other business we can generate across the franchise. The core of the strategy will not be changing with him coming on board. Mark, what else would you add?
Mark Mason, CFO
One thing I’d add is that we are well-positioned for as the market recovers, as it plays towards Wealth. When you look at the client advisors, as you know, we’ve been investing in bringing on new client advisors. We’ve been increasing the number of new clients that we’ve been onboarding as well. We’ve invested in some of the investment products that we have. I feel we are positioning ourselves for when this turns. As for your question regarding capital, this business is very healthy in a normal cycle, and as the market turns and as we recover, we would look to deploy capital appropriate to the growth and return prospects we see in front of us. Importantly, it’s also not as capital-intensive a business as others, so we need to keep that in mind.
Erika Najarian, Analyst
Hi, good morning. I think it’s remarkable that your first two questions were essentially saying that your revenues are too conservative. So that’s very notable for us. My first question is a follow-up to Betsy. I think everybody was impressed, Jane, at the Andy Sieg hire. Given your strength as a global player, could Citi participate in perhaps inorganic opportunities that could be out there, having resulted from the liquidity crisis we saw that could enhance your Wealth Management footprint more quickly?
Jane Fraser, CEO
We see plenty of potential for organic growth. That’s really where we’re going to be focusing, Erika, because I look at the Private Bank and the family office. There is so much wealth creation, supplemented by our commercial banking relationship with a lot of the enterprises and the owners of those enterprises who are generating the new industry champions in country after country, and we’re extremely well-positioned to capture that. I don’t see an inorganic play that would help us on it. We also benefit because we don’t have our own proprietary products and a sales force pushing those proprietary products; we’re open architecture. We’re a very desirable partner for many of our key partners on the institutional side of the business to provide interesting value propositions and investment opportunities. While I’ll never say never, it’s not something right now that I think makes sense, given our current focus. The consent orders are almost independent of this, and I think what we’re looking at doing is getting this organic play right, and then we will see from there.
Jim Mitchell, Analyst
Hey, good morning. Just a question on capital. I appreciate the fact that the potential sale of the Mexico franchise would be a negative impact, but you’re sitting at a pretty comfortable cushion now above your target. Can you talk about the timing of restarting buybacks with your stock as cheap as it is?
Mark Mason, CFO
Yes, thanks, Jim. Good morning. Look, as you pointed out, we grew capital sizably this quarter, up to 13.4% from a CET1 ratio point of view and up from a year ago, about 200 basis points. A good portion of that, significant portion, was due to net income earnings generation, which is important. We’re at 13.4%, which is well above what’s required from a regulatory point of view and includes our internal management buffer of about 100 basis points. There are a couple of factors out there to keep in mind, as we’ve said in the past. Certainly, the Mexico transaction would be a temporary drag on CET1 at signing, the difference between signing and closing if a sale took place. And then we have a couple of other factors to consider, such as the Basel III endgame and capital requirements that could arise from that. Think about the DFAST stress capital buffers that are currently under review and how that might affect our capital strategy. When I consider all those factors, we’ll continue to take it quarter-by-quarter. But I’d say our bias is kind of where yours is, which is given where we’re trading, we’d like to be buying back shares, but we have to be responsible about timing.
Jane Fraser, CEO
I think we will have more clarity fairly soon around a number of those factors. So we will be able to give you better clarity on timing before too long.
Jim Mitchell, Analyst
Yes, all fair. And then maybe as a follow-up, you mentioned increased macro assumptions embedded in reserves. Where are you now on the macro assumptions in the reserve book?
Mark Mason, CFO
So in terms of the reserves, remember, we have a couple of different scenarios that we run when we calculate the CECL reserves. Our current reserves are based on three macroeconomic scenarios, reflecting a 5.1%-or-so unemployment rate on a weighted basis over eight quarters, which is relatively flat versus last quarter. In this quarter’s calculation, we did skew a bit more towards the downside in terms of the probability weighting than last quarter due to the macro environment and some normalization in the portfolio, including an increase in revolving activity that contributed to the increase in reserves we saw. But to answer your question, unemployment is at about 5.1% on a weighted basis over the eight quarters.
Steven Chubak, Analyst
Hi, good morning.
Mark Mason, CFO
Good morning.
Jane Fraser, CEO
Good morning.
Steven Chubak, Analyst
I wanted to start off with a question just on the Investment Banking trading outlook. Just given some of the recent macro shocks, have you seen any evidence of volatility? And are you still confident that you can sustain that mid-single-digit growth target?
Mark Mason, CFO
Why don’t I start and then Jane can chime in. We certainly saw a better performance in the quarter in markets than when I talked at the conference earlier in the quarter. That played through in our Fixed Income business, which was up about 4% year-over-year driven largely by strength in rates. We saw rate volatility in the back end of the quarter, and we were well-positioned to take advantage of that and serve clients, which aided in getting us to down four in aggregate across markets. What we talked about for the full year is kind of relatively flat performance. I still think that based on what we see today, and subject to how the macro continues evolving, that we will be able to deliver on that.
Jane Fraser, CEO
I’d jump in before you turn to Banking as well. One of the differences with our franchise compared to some others is that we are the go-to bank for corporate clients. That provides a highly attractive but steady flow of activity. In volatile markets, we see this as good volatility because we can support our clients in rates, foreign exchange, commodity hedging. It makes our risk flows much more diversified than our competitors, especially in volatile markets. We’re not taking positions, and this is really attractive client flow business right at the heart of the global network. The partnership with Treasury and Trade Solutions cross-border payments also backs up the core of the foreign exchange franchise. There are pieces of volatility that aren’t usually seen as client-heavy, but that’s what differentiates the Citi franchise.
Mark Mason, CFO
That’s exactly right. In Investment Banking, wallets were down significantly last year. We saw some performance improvement this quarter in debt capital markets, which was up 66% versus the prior quarter, particularly as we saw activity in investment-grade names, an area of strength for us indeed. Clients are going to need to get back into the markets, but that trajectory will largely depend on the geopolitical and macro environment and how we navigate that uncertainty. We have a healthy pipeline, subject to how the environment evolves.
Steven Chubak, Analyst
For my follow-up, just on PWM fee income trends. Can you help me understand how much of the sequential improvement we saw in fees is the result of higher partner payments as credit continues to normalize? How should we think about the trajectory of fees within Personal Banking and Wealth Management over the remainder of this year?
Mark Mason, CFO
There are a couple of things to keep in mind regarding Personal Banking and Wealth Management fees. This includes both the cards business and the wealth business. A good amount of the pressure we have seen in fees, still subject to how the environment evolves, is in the wealth space. We continue to see fee pressure from investment activity and revenues there; we need to see how market valuations move on some of the assets that we manage on behalf of clients and the momentum that drives more investment activity.
Ebrahim Poonawala, Analyst
Hey. Good afternoon. Just a couple of quick questions. One, in terms of the Banamex sale, I think Jane, you mentioned that maybe we might hear something relatively soon and you still are pursuing the dual-track process. One, if you decide to go the IPO route, does that change the accounting dynamics, Mark, regarding taking that hit early on given the time it might take to go through an IPO? Also, the outlook for the Mexican economy, the banks continues to be robust. Does that impact how you’re thinking about the value you should get from this transaction?
Jane Fraser, CEO
We are in a very active dialogue in Mexico so neither Mark nor I are going to comment in a lot of detail there. We’re pursuing both a sale and an IPO as dual paths, and we will take the path in the best interest of our shareholders. We have been pleased with the progress in separating the institutional business. A lot of the strong performance is in our Institutional Clients Group business where Mexico benefits from supply chain dynamics. The Mexican economy doesn’t significantly impact our decision-making. We will take the path that’s best for our shareholders.
Mark Mason, CFO
For the quarter, Mexico was up 16% year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter up 5%, with growth in cards and deposits—it’s performing well. Regarding the accounting point for IPO, CTA accounting is different, so we would not recognize that CTA through the P&L for an IPO.
Matt O’Connor, Analyst
Hello. You’ve talked about bending the curve on cost, I think in the latter part of 2024. Is that still the case? Can you clarify what bending the curve means? Is that slowing expense growth or absolute drop? Any clarity on costs in general would be helpful. Thank you.
Mark Mason, CFO
Yes, it is still the case. We are going to bend the curve as I have mentioned towards the end of 2024. It means an absolute dollar reduction in expenses.
Matt O’Connor, Analyst
Okay. That's helpful. You’ve insinuated that it’s the start of a more material drop in costs beyond what’s far away, any additional color?
Mark Mason, CFO
The expense base is a key area of focus for us. We recognize that expenses have been growing because we've been investing in the franchise, both through transformation and growth supporting competitive advantages in many of our franchises. We are actively managing that, ensuring we're spending money the right way and getting the benefits expected. We have set targets for our Investor Day opportunities regarding returns and expense base reduction.
Gerard Cassidy, Analyst
Thank you. Hey Jane. Hey Mark.
Mark Mason, CFO
Good morning.
Gerard Cassidy, Analyst
A couple of questions. Jane, maybe starting with you first, or Mark, both of you can answer it. In view of the disruptions we’ve seen in the banking system in the month of March, do you see changes coming or what changes do you see coming in terms of regulatory, whether it’s more capital, more liquidity? It may not be directed at a company like yours because you are a global SIFI already, and it might be more regional-oriented in the United States. Can you give us some color on the deposit you and your peers made into First Republic? What was the thinking behind that?
Jane Fraser, CEO
I’d say we hope that there will be a thoughtful and targeted approach to any changes in the regulatory and capital framework that address the root causes of what happened in a small handful of banks. We don’t see these issues as pervasive throughout the broader banking industry. The events highlight the importance of prudent asset and liability management. We believe there is still plenty of capital among the large banks. If capital requirements increase for large banks, it could exacerbate credit tightening. The quantity and quality of activity in shadow banking does concern us, as it does not have the same regulatory frameworks and protections. The responsiveness of large institutions displays a strong banking system, with 11 large U.S. banks able to inject $30 billion of deposits into First Republic in a day. It reflects our strength and responsibility to stabilize situations like this.
Gerard Cassidy, Analyst
Very insightful. Thank you. I also noticed in your card, Slide 8, you gave us the prime—80% of the portfolio is prime, with FICO scores greater than 680. I’ve seen reports of FICO score inflation due to the pandemic, with scores reportedly going up as high as 70 points. Do you agree with that statement, and if so, would you expect the 700 FICO score customer to behave like a 650 score customer?
Jane Fraser, CEO
I think the short answer is no, but I’ll let Mark answer that one.
Mark Mason, CFO
We feel very confident in how we have assessed our customers and the implications derived from having 80% of our customers classified as prime and above 680. Speaking importantly, we’re witnessing payment rates start to slow while average interest-earning balances begin to rise. Non-Current Loan rates are increasing, primarily driven by lower FICO score customers across the portfolio, where we expect to start seeing that drag occur. The NCL rates we’ve recorded remain well below what we would typically anticipate in a normal cycle and are aligning with our performance forecasts. We understand our customers, portfolio, and how it reacts, allowing us to forecast accurately." Moreover, we maintain a sizable reserve, as you know, as part of that $20 billion.
Jane Fraser, CEO
We also rely on much more data than just FICO scores for assessing credit. Our comprehensive data set gives us a broader perspective. It provides us with greater confidence in our customer assessments.
Vivek Juneja, Analyst
Thank you. Thanks for taking my questions, Mark and Jane.
Mark Mason, CFO
Good morning.
Vivek Juneja, Analyst
Mark, I want to go to your revenue. I hear you are maintaining the revenue guidance unchanged. What’s in your revenue assumption? I’d like to unpeel that a little bit. What’s in your revenue assumptions for rates, U.S. and internationally? And what’s going on with deposit betas, particularly following the inflows you have seen in the U.S.?
Mark Mason, CFO
In terms of anticipated rates for the rest of the year, we suggest that rates would likely level off after this quarter and decrease slightly toward year-end, perhaps down to a level of 4.50%. We may see one more increase, but it’s unlikely to significantly affect 2023; rather, the impact will be more pronounced in 2024. As for non-U.S. rates, we anticipate continued rate increases, though not of significant magnitude. For retail banking with PBWM clients, we expect clients will shift towards either higher-yielding deposit products or investment products. We have factored these elements into our outlook. Could that change? Certainly, but it’s a foundational aspect of our assumptions.
Vivek Juneja, Analyst
And just as a clarification, with the recent inflows in deposits in the U.S., is that changing your betas or what’s going on in deposit betas?
Mark Mason, CFO
We did see inflows in the quarter associated with the sector turmoil. We observed about $30 billion in inflows from that period, primarily in our CCB, commercial middle-market client base. It’s too soon to determine how those betas evolve, but we believe a good portion of those deposits will likely stick. Our strategy involves growing operating deposits with our large multinational and middle-market clients, and we’ll maintain that focus.