8-K
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
8-K
2025-06-24
For: 2025-06-24
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Added on
April 11, 2026
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND
EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 8-K
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section
13 OR 15(d) of The Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported):
June 24, 2025
CF
Industries Holdings, Inc.
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
| Delaware | 001-32597 | 20-2697511 |
|---|---|---|
| (State<br> or other jurisdiction<br><br> of incorporation) | (Commission<br> File Number) | (IRS<br> Employer<br><br> Identification No.) |
| 2375 Waterview Drive **** <br>Northbrook , Illinois | 60062 | |
| --- | --- | |
| (Address<br> of principal <br><br> executive offices) | (Zip<br> Code) |
Registrant’s telephone number, including area code
(847
) 405-2400
(Former name or former address, if changed since last report.)
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):
| ¨ | Written<br>communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425) |
|---|---|
| ¨ | Soliciting<br>material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12) |
| --- | --- |
| ¨ | Pre-commencement<br>communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b)) |
| --- | --- |
| ¨ | Pre-commencement<br>communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c)) |
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Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:
| Title of each class | Trading symbol(s) | Name of each exchange on which registered |
|---|---|---|
| common stock, par value $0.01 per share | CF | New York Stock Exchange |
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).
Emerging growth company ¨
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ¨
| Item 7.01. | Regulation FD Disclosure. |
|---|
The presentation attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 will be used by CF Industries Holdings, Inc. during its Investor Day on June 24, 2025.
The information set forth herein, including the exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in any such filing.
| Item 9.01. | Financial Statements and Exhibits. |
|---|
(d) Exhibits.
| Exhibit No. | Description of Exhibit |
|---|---|
| 99.1 | Presentation of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. dated June 24, 2025 |
| 104 | Cover Page Interactive Data File (the cover page XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document) |
2
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
| Date: | June 24, 2025 | CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| By: | /s/ Michael P. McGrane | ||
| Name: | Michael P. McGrane | ||
| Title: | Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary |
3
Exhibit 99.1
| Investor Day 2025<br>June 24, 2025 NYSE: CF |
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| Welcome<br>Martin Jarosick<br>VP, Treasury and Investor Relations<br>2 |
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| Safe Harbor Statement and Appendix Information<br>All statements in this presentation by CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, the “Company”), other than those relating to historical facts, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking<br>statements can generally be identified by their use of terms such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “may,” “plan,” “predict,” “project,” “will” or “would” and similar terms and phrases,<br>including references to assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the<br>Company’s control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. These statements may include, but are not limited to, statements about: strategic plans and management’s<br>expectations with respect to the production of low-carbon ammonia, the development of carbon capture and sequestration projects, the transition to and growth of a hydrogen economy, greenhouse gas<br>reduction targets, projected capital expenditures, statements about future financial and operating results, and other items described in this presentation. Important factors that could cause actual results to<br>differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, among others, the Company’s ability to complete the projects at its Blue Point Complex, including the construction of a low-carbon<br>ammonia production facility with its joint venture partners and scalable infrastructure on schedule and on budget or at all; the Company’s ability to fund the capital expenditure needs related to the joint<br>venture at its Blue Point Complex, which may exceed its current estimates; the cyclical nature of the Company’s business and the impact of global supply and demand on the Company’s selling prices and<br>operating results; the global commodity nature of the Company’s nitrogen products, the conditions in the global market for nitrogen products, and the intense global competition from other producers;<br>announced or future tariffs, retaliatory measures, and global trade relations, including the potential impact of tariffs and retaliatory measures on the price and availability of materials for its capital projects and<br>maintenance; conditions in the United States, Europe and other agricultural areas, including the influence of governmental policies and technological developments on the demand for its fertilizer products;<br>the volatility of natural gas prices in North America and globally; weather conditions and the impact of adverse weather events; the seasonality of the fertilizer business; the impact of changing market<br>conditions on the Company’s forward sales programs; difficulties in securing the supply and delivery of raw materials or utilities, increases in their costs or delays or interruptions in their delivery; reliance on<br>third party providers of transportation services and equipment; the Company’s reliance on a limited number of key facilities; risks associated with cybersecurity; acts of terrorism and regulations to combat<br>terrorism; the significant risks and hazards involved in producing and handling the Company’s products against which the Company may not be fully insured; risks associated with international operations; the<br>Company’s ability to manage its indebtedness and any additional indebtedness that may be incurred; risks associated with changes in tax laws and adverse determinations by taxing authorities, including any<br>potential changes in tax regulations and its qualification for tax credits; risks involving derivatives and the effectiveness of the Company’s risk management and hedging activities; potential liabilities and<br>expenditures related to environmental, health and safety laws and regulations and permitting requirements; regulatory restrictions and requirements related to greenhouse gas emissions, including<br>announced or future changes in environmental or climate change laws; the development and growth of the market for low-carbon ammonia and the risks and uncertainties relating to the development and<br>implementation of the Company’s low-carbon ammonia projects; risks associated with investments in and expansions of the Company’s business, including unanticipated adverse consequences and the<br>significant resources that could be required; and failure of technologies to perform, develop or be available as expected, including the low-carbon ATR ammonia production facility with carbon capture and<br>sequestration technologies being constructed at its Blue Point Complex. More detailed information about factors that may affect the Company’s performance and could cause actual results to differ materially<br>from those in any forward-looking statements may be found in CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s most recent annual<br>and quarterly reports on Form 10-K and Form 10-Q, which are available in the Investor Relations section of the Company’s web site. It is not possible to predict or identify all risks and uncertainties that might<br>affect the accuracy of our forward-looking statements and, consequently, our descriptions of such risks and uncertainties should not be considered exhaustive. There is no guarantee that any of the events,<br>plans or goals anticipated by these forward-looking statements will occur, and if any of the events do occur, there is no guarantee what effect they will have on our business, results of operations, cash flows,<br>financial condition and future prospects. Forward-looking statements are given only as of the date of this presentation and the Company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking<br>statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.<br>See the Appendix to this presentation for additional detail, including sources and calculation information, regarding statements made in this presentation.<br>3 |
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| Note regarding non-GAAP financial measures<br>The Company reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Management believes that EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, gross debt/adjusted EBITDA, free cash<br>flow, free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion (also referred to as FCF/adjusted EBITDA) and free cash flow yield, which are non-GAAP financial measures, provide additional meaningful information<br>regarding the Company's performance and financial strength. Non-GAAP financial measures should be viewed in addition to, and not as an alternative for, the Company’s reported results prepared in<br>accordance with GAAP. In addition, because not all companies use identical calculations, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, gross debt/adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion<br>and free cash flow yield included in this presentation may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies. Reconciliations of EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow and free cash flow yield<br>to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided in the tables accompanying this presentation.<br>EBITDA is defined as net earnings attributable to common stockholders plus interest expense—net, income taxes, and depreciation and amortization. Other adjustments include the elimination of loan fee<br>amortization that is included in both interest and amortization, and the portion of depreciation that is included in noncontrolling interest. The Company has presented EBITDA because management uses the<br>measure to track performance and believes that it is frequently used by securities analysts, investors and other interested parties in the evaluation of companies in the industry.<br>Adjusted EBITDA is defined as EBITDA adjusted with the selected items as summarized in the tables accompanying this presentation. The Company has presented adjusted EBITDA because management uses<br>adjusted EBITDA, and believes it is useful to investors, as a supplemental financial measure in the comparison of year-over-year performance. Gross debt/adjusted EBITDA is defined as gross debt divided by<br>adjusted EBITDA. Gross debt is defined as the Company’s long-term debt balance on the Company’s consolidated balance sheet.<br>Free cash flow is defined as net cash provided by operating activities, as stated in the consolidated statements of cash flows, reduced by capital expenditures and distributions to noncontrolling interests. Free<br>cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion (also referred to as FCF/adjusted EBITDA) is defined as free cash flow divided by adjusted EBITDA. Free cash flow yield is defined as free cash flow divided by market<br>value of equity (market cap). The Company has presented free cash flow, free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion and free cash flow yield because management uses these measures and believes they are<br>useful to investors, as an indication of the strength of the Company and its ability to generate cash and to evaluate the Company’s cash generation ability relative to its industry competitors. It should not be<br>inferred that the entire free cash flow amount is available for discretionary expenditures.<br>4 |
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| 5<br>Back of House<br>Back of House<br>Elevators<br>Elevators<br>Presentation<br>Reception |
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| Today’s Agenda<br>Welcome Martin Jarosick VP, Treasury and Investor Relations<br>Opening Remarks Tony Will President and Chief Executive Officer<br>Sustainable Competitive Advantages Bert Frost EVP, Sales, Market Development and Supply Chain<br>Uniquely Positioned for Growth Chris Bohn EVP and Chief Operating Officer<br>Focused Capital Deployment Greg Cameron EVP and Chief Financial Officer<br>Closing Remarks Tony Will President and Chief Executive Officer<br>10-MINUTE BREAK<br>Live Q&A Session<br>Post Event Reception<br>6 |
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| Opening<br>Remarks<br>Tony Will<br>President and Chief Executive Officer<br>7 |
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| Tony<br>Will<br>Bert<br>Frost<br>Chris<br>Bohn<br>Greg<br>Cameron<br>Sue<br>Menzel<br>Ashraf<br>Malik<br>Mike<br>McGrane<br>Linda<br>Dempsey<br>President &<br>Chief Executive<br>Officer<br>EVP, Sales,<br>Market<br>Development &<br>Supply Chain<br>EVP &<br>Chief Operating<br>Officer<br>EVP & Chief<br>Financial Officer<br>EVP & Chief<br>Administrative<br>Officer<br>SVP,<br>Manufacturing<br> & Distribution<br>VP,<br>General Counsel<br> & Secretary<br>VP,<br>Public Affairs<br>18 years at CF 17 years at CF 16 years at CF 1 year at CF 8 years at CF 13 years at CF 14 years at CF 5 years at CF<br>CF Senior Leadership Team<br>8 |
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| OUR MISSION<br>We provide clean energy to feed and fuel the world sustainably<br>9<br>In operation Pure-play<br>ammonia producer<br>79 years 10+ years<br>Listed on NYSE<br>20 years |
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| Acquisition of Terra<br>Industries doubled<br>production capacity<br>CF Industries’ evolution to the world’s largest ammonia producer<br>2005 2010 2014 2016 2020 2022 2023<br>IPO, listed on NYSE<br>Sold phosphate<br>business $1.4B<br>North American<br>capacity increased<br>by 25%<br>Donaldsonville & Port Neal<br>expansion projects<br>Evolved strategy to<br>provide clean energy in<br>the form of low-carbon<br>ammonia<br>Landmark CCS<br>agreement with<br>ExxonMobil North American<br>capacity increased<br>by ~10%<br>Waggaman acquisition<br>10<br>2025<br>Blue Point low-carbon<br>ammonia project<br>initiated |
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| Our success is rooted in our values<br>11 |
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| Advantaged<br>Production<br>Unmatched<br>Distribution<br> & Logistics<br>Network<br>Operational<br>Excellence<br>Disciplined<br>Capital<br>Stewardship<br>12<br>OUR STRATEGY<br>Leverage our unique capabilities |
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| $1.9B returned to<br>shareholders in 2024(1)<br>Return capital<br>to shareholders<br>Inorganic growth<br>opportunities<br>Investing where we win<br>13<br>Strategic<br>growth initiatives<br>Blue Point JV & clean energy<br>Invest in<br>high-return projects<br>within our network<br>Increased DEF<br>loading capacity<br>Carbon capture<br>and sequestration<br>Waggaman<br>acquisition |
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| Balanced capital allocation strategy creates value while providing<br>capacity growth<br>14<br>Returned to<br>shareholders through<br>share repurchases and<br>dividends<br>60%<br>Invested in growth to<br>drive cash flow<br>generation(1)<br>40%<br>Capital Allocation<br>2010 - Q1 2025<br>~$24B |
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| CF long-term total shareholder return continuously outperforms<br>247%<br>91%<br>831%<br>130%<br>22%<br>85% 56% 72%<br>193%<br>112%<br>152%<br>371%<br>5-Year 10-Year 15-Year<br>S&P 500<br>Materials<br>S&P 500<br>Industrials<br>15<br>Peer Average<br>(Nutrien, Yara, Mosaic) |
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| Strong cash generation supports balanced capital allocation priorities<br>Investment in<br>Blue Point JV<br>through 2029<br>$2.0B(2)<br>Share repurchase<br>authorizations<br>through 2029<br>$2.6B(1)<br>Increasing<br>capacity<br>Decreasing<br>shares<br>16 |
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| 17<br>30<br>39<br>52<br>2010 2015 2020 2025F<br>CAGR<br>~7%<br>17<br>Decreased share count<br>56%<br>Increased production capacity<br>36%<br>Estimated by December 31, 2025<br>Our formula for success<br>Annual Nitrogen Equivalent<br>Tons per 1,000 Shares Outstanding(1)<br>(2) |
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| Sustainable<br>Competitive<br>Advantages<br>Bert Frost<br>EVP, Sales, Market Development<br>and Supply Chain<br>18 |
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| Nitrogen is the building block of life<br>Nitrogen needed<br>for every acre of grains<br>planted annually<br>World’s food production<br>dependent on fertilizer<br>2024 global<br>ammonia production<br>100-180 lbs ~50% ~200 MMT<br>19 |
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| Where we win on the value chain<br>20<br>Ammonia<br>Production<br>Natural Gas Distribution<br>Network<br>Industrials<br>Agriculture Retail<br>Clean Energy<br>Growers<br>Upgrade Production<br>Grain<br>Protein<br>Ethanol |
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| Long-term sustainable North American structural advantages<br>Import dependent and highly productive agriculture<br>Access to low-cost natural gas<br>21<br>North America<br>Advantages |
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| Advantaged network provides lowest delivered cost to North America<br>22<br>Middle East Imports<br>Ocean Freight $1.50<br>Tariff $1.70<br>Barge Offload $0.15<br>Barge & Throughput $1.90<br>Trucking $0.95<br>Importers face additional<br>transport costs of<br>~$6.20<br>$/MMBtu Equivalent(1)<br>Lead Time:<br>30-40 days<br>Port Neal<br>Complex |
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| Our competitive network advantages<br>Import dependent and highly productive agriculture<br>Access to low-cost natural gas<br>Production and<br>distribution flexibility<br>Distribution<br>network<br>23<br>Unmatched<br>logistics<br>Advantages<br>North America<br>Advantages<br>Efficient<br>North American<br>asset base |
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| Product tons<br>annual capacity<br>~20M<br>Production units across 8<br>strategically-located sites<br>~60<br>24<br>North American advantaged production network<br>Manufacturing Plants<br>Sunoco Ammonia Pipeline |
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| North American advantaged distribution network<br>25<br>Distribution Facilities<br>Manufacturing Plants<br>Sunoco Ammonia Pipeline<br>Integrated distribution<br>terminals<br>21<br>Distribution terminals<br>(owned & leased)<br>~45 |
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| 5.2<br>8.8<br>5.5<br>4.6<br>4.4<br>2.9<br>1.0<br>0.9<br>Max Urea Max UAN<br>Unmatched production network flexibility<br>Product switching within<br>our network < 1 day<br>Ability to meet customer<br>needs and produce highest<br>margin product<br>North American Production Flexibility<br>(excluding Other)<br>AN<br>NH3<br>Urea/DEF<br>UAN<br>26<br>(Million short tons)<br>1.5<br>0.9<br>3.6 |
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| Unmatched distribution network flexibility<br>Pipe Barge Rail Truck Export<br>Ammonia<br>Urea<br>UAN<br>AN<br>DEF<br>CF Logistic<br>Capabilities<br>27<br>Global Capabilities<br> Export capabilities from:<br> Donaldsonville, Verdigris, Yazoo City<br> Exported to over 20 countries in 2024 |
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| Hard to replicate and built for the long term<br>Import dependent and highly productive agriculture<br>Access to low-cost natural gas<br>Production and<br>distribution flexibility<br>Distribution<br>network<br>Highest value net back<br>28<br>Advantages<br>North America<br>Advantages<br>Unmatched<br>logistics<br>Efficient<br>North American<br>asset base |
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| Net importers require ~55 MMT of urea annually<br>29<br>Net Importer |
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| Net exporters of urea<br>30<br>Net Importer<br>Net Exporter |
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| Natural gas-related production curtailments have impeded<br>nitrogen supply<br>31<br>Net Importer<br>Net Exporter<br>Trinidad<br>Egypt<br>Iran<br>Europe<br>Natural gas-related<br>curtailments |
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| Geopolitical conflicts disrupt global nitrogen production and trade<br>32<br>Egypt<br>Iran<br>Russia<br>~5-6M tons<br>urea exports<br>annually<br>~1.5M tons<br>UAN annual<br>capacity offline<br>~4-5M tons<br>urea exports<br>annually |
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| Limited Chinese urea exports expected as the government<br>focuses on ensuring domestic supply to stabilize prices<br>China Urea Exports<br>0%<br>5%<br>10%<br>15%<br>20%<br>25%<br>30%<br>35%<br>40%<br>0<br>2<br>4<br>6<br>8<br>10<br>12<br>14<br>16<br>18<br>20 15 20 18 20 21 20 24 20 27F 20 30 F<br>MMT % of Global Total Exports<br>Large-scale capacity closures<br>due to high costs, subsidy<br>rollbacks, and government<br>environmental mandates<br>Limited exports expected as<br>government remains focused<br>on domestic supply needs<br>Government imposes<br>export restrictions to<br>ensure availability &<br>stable domestic prices<br>33 |
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| Nitrogen demand growth supports new ammonia capacity<br>Source of Nitrogen Demand Growth by 2029 (ex. China)<br>Demand Growth 2025-2029(1)<br>12-14 MMT<br>Industrial applications and clean energy demand growth<br>Population/income growth<br>Protein consumption<br>34<br>(Ammonia equivalent) |
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| Global demand significantly outpaces supply growth<br>35<br>Estimated 5-year Global Ammonia Demand and Supply Growth (ex. China)<br>3-4 MMT<br>5-6 MMT<br>Net Additions<br>12-14 MMT<br>Supply Growth 2025-2029<br>Expected European Closures<br>7-8 MMT<br>Shortfall<br>Additional ammonia<br>facilities required<br>FID/Under Construction<br>Additions<br>2029 Required Supply<br>9.7 MMT<br>Low-carbon<br>4.7 MMT(2)<br>Conventional<br>5.0 MMT(3)<br>Demand Growth<br>2025-2029(1)<br>(Ammonia equivalent) |
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| DEF market development provides blueprint for low-carbon growth<br>36<br>Leader in developing DEF<br>market in North America<br>We achieve ~$100/st cash<br>margin premium to NOLA urea<br>Long-term demand growth<br>North America Urea-Equivalent<br>DEF Consumption<br>Million short tons urea<br> -<br> 500<br> 1,000<br> 1,500<br> 2,000<br> 2,500<br> 3,000<br>N.A. DEF Demand<br>2016 2024 2030<br>8%<br>CAGR |
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| Opportunity to strengthen our existing business…<br>Low-carbon<br>fertilizers<br>Low-carbon<br>ammonia<br>37<br>$25-$100/mt(1)<br>Low-carbon<br>Ethanol<br>Consumer<br>Packaged Goods<br>European CBAM<br>Industrials |
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| …while fostering demand from new low-carbon applications<br>$25-$100/mt(1)<br>Low-carbon<br>fertilizers<br>Low-carbon<br>ammonia<br>Power Generation<br>Fuel Applications<br>38<br>Unlocks new<br>demand<br>Low-carbon<br>Ethanol<br>Consumer<br>Packaged Goods<br>European CBAM<br>Industrials |
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| Uniquely<br>Positioned<br>for Growth<br>Chris Bohn<br>EVP and Chief Operating Officer<br>39 |
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| We are the world’s largest<br>ammonia producer<br>12-month Rolling Average<br>Recordable Incident Rate(1)<br>Q1 2025 TTM<br>Capacity Utilization<br>Greater Capacity Utilization<br>vs. North America Peers(2)<br>5-year rolling avg. percent of capacity ending 2024<br>0.34 98% +8%<br>40 |
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| Operational success is rooted in our values, scale and expertise<br>41<br> “Do It Right” Culture<br>2.4<br>0.3<br>3.4<br>1.9<br>2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024<br>Total injuries per 200,000 work hours(1)<br>Total Recordable Incident Rate<br>BLS Fertilizer<br>Manufacturing |
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| 42<br>Scale and<br>Expertise<br>Team of engineers<br>within our network<br>Pure-play<br>Ammonia producer<br>Consistent<br>Investments to<br>maintain assets<br>Highly-skilled<br>Operational success is rooted in our values, scale and expertise |
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| Leading safety culture and scale drive superior capacity utilization<br>96%<br>88%<br>5-year rolling avg. percent of capacity ending 2024<br>CF North America(2)<br>North America<br>Excluding CF(3)<br>+8%(4)<br>North American Ammonia Capacity Utilization(1)<br>Equivalent to<br>~$3.5B<br>capital investment<br>savings(5)<br>43 |
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| 0.0<br>0.5<br>1.0<br>1.5<br>2.0<br>2.5<br>Global leader in decarbonization<br>44<br>Scope 1 CO2e Intensity(1)<br>37%<br>Target<br>Intensity<br>1.71<br>2015<br>Baseline<br>Intensity<br>2030<br>Expected<br>Emissions<br>Intensity<br>2030<br>Potential<br>Emissions<br>Intensity<br>Decarbonization<br>Project Pipeline<br>Emission-efficient<br>Expansion<br>Plants(2)<br>Donaldsonville<br>CCS<br>Verdigris<br>N2O<br>Abatement<br>Yazoo City<br>CCS<br>Blue Point<br>2.5MMT of CO2-e<br>Annually starting<br>in 2025<br>Equivalent to ~600,000<br>cars off the road |
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| 45<br>Opportunities to decarbonize profitably<br>Structural benefits<br> Tax Incentives Realization<br> — 45Q tax incentive<br> Carbon Tax Avoidance<br> — CBAM<br> (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism)<br> — Canadian carbon tax<br>CF Market Opportunities<br><br> Low-carbon price premium<br> Selling carbon credits |
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| Donaldsonville CO2 dehydration & compression fully commissioned<br>46<br>Sequestration<br>CO2 storage sites – class VI permit in queue<br>CO2 pipelines<br>Enhanced oil recovery<br>Dehydration & Compression Unit<br>Donaldsonville, LA<br>Donaldsonville<br>Baton Rouge<br>Lake Charles Beaumont<br>LA<br>MS<br>Port Arthur<br>TX |
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| Pathways to sequester ~6.6MMT of CO2 per year<br>47<br>Announced Projects Incentives MMT per year<br>Donaldsonville 45Q 2.0<br>Yazoo City 45Q 0.5<br>Blue Point JV 45Q 2.3<br>Projects in Pipeline<br>Waggaman 45Q 1.0<br>Medicine Hat Canadian carbon programs 0.8<br>of CO2 per year sequestered<br>~6.6MMT<br>CO2 Capture CO2 Dehydration &<br>Compression<br>Transportation &<br>Sequestration |
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| Ammonia projects are easy to announce, difficult to commercialize<br>48<br>232<br>Low-carbon projects<br>announced globally<br>Only<br> 6<br>World-scale<br>projects<br>FID / under<br>construction(1) 2<br>Green projects<br>~2.4M tons<br>4<br>Low-carbon projects<br>~5M tons<br>2<br>Located in the U.S.<br> CF Blue Point JV<br> Woodside |
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| Global partnerships foster low-carbon ammonia growth<br>49<br>Oxygen & nitrogen supply<br>CO2 transportation & sequestration<br>ATR ammonia technology<br>volume<br>subscribed(1)<br>80%<br>Engineering, procurement & fabrication<br>Blue Point Low-Carbon<br>Ammonia Production |
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| Blue Point capital requirements, CF estimated contribution ~$2B<br>$500M<br>Contingency<br>Initial Blue Point<br>Capex Estimate<br>Air Separation Unit<br>Estimate<br>New Blue Point<br>Capex Estimate<br>$2.0B<br>Fixed Price Components<br>$4.0B $3.7B<br>$1.2B<br>Mechanical & Civil Assembly<br>50<br>CF portion<br>$1.5B<br>Common<br>facilities<br>+$550M |
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| Blue Point complex strategically positioned for global demand<br>On Mississippi River<br>Deep-water dock access<br>To Donaldsonville complex<br>9 miles<br>To Waggaman production facility<br>60 miles Donaldsonville<br>Complex<br>Blue Point<br>Complex<br>Waggaman<br>51 |
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| Operational excellence<br>underscores global leadership<br>52<br>Global Leader<br>High-capacity<br>utilization<br>Low-cost efficient<br>production<br>Extensive logistics and<br>distribution network<br>Strong financial<br>performance<br>Industry-leading<br>safety |
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| Focused<br>Capital<br>Deployment<br>53<br>Greg Cameron<br>EVP and Chief Financial Officer |
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| Strong financial performance<br>Q1 2025 LTM<br>Adj. EBITDA*<br>Q1 2025 LTM<br>Free Cash Flow*<br>Q1 2025 LTM<br>FCF/Adj. EBITDA*<br>$2.5B $1.6B 63%<br>54<br>Q1 2025 LTM<br>Net Earnings<br>Q1 2025 LTM<br>Cash from Operations<br>$1.3B $2.4B<br>Q1 2025 LTM<br>Returned to Shareholders(1)<br>$2.0B<br>* Non-GAAP financial measures; see Appendix for reconciliations to the most directly<br> comparable GAAP financial measures |
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| $969<br>$1,403 $1,610<br>$1,350<br>$2,743<br>$5,880<br>$2,760<br>$2,284 $2,469<br>$1,027 $936 $915 $748 $2,165 $2,783 $1,799 $1,445 $1,567<br>2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Q1 2025 LTM<br>Consistently high free cash flow generation<br>$ millions<br>2017-Q1 2025<br>Capital Allocation<br>Adj. EBITDA<br>Free cash flow<br>Returned to shareholders(1)<br>$7.8B<br>Inorganic capacity growth(2)<br>$1.6B<br>Debt reduction<br>~$3.0B<br>55<br>FCF/ Adj. EBITDA conversion<br>over 8 years<br>62% |
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| CF ranks as the top performer vs fertilizer peers<br>56<br>Adj. EBITDA Margin<br>5-year average(2)<br>FCF Conversion<br>5-year average(3)<br>Total Shareholder Return<br>5-year average<br>vs. Fertilizers #1 #1 #1 (1)<br>(count = 4) |
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| 57<br>Adj. EBITDA Margin<br>5-year average(2)<br>FCF Conversion<br>5-year average(3)<br>Total Shareholder Return<br>5-year average<br>vs. Fertilizers #1 #1 #1 (1)<br>(count = 4)<br>vs. Materials #1 #1 #3<br>(count = 30)<br>CF ranks as a top performer vs companies with similar KPIs in<br>Materials |
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| 58<br>Adj. EBITDA Margin<br>5-year average(2)<br>FCF Conversion<br>5-year average(3)<br>Total Shareholder Return<br>5-year average<br>vs. Fertilizers #1 #1 #1 (1)<br>(count = 4)<br>vs. Materials #1 #1 #3<br>(count = 30)<br>(count = 78)<br>vs. Industrials Top 10% Top 40% Top 25%<br>CF a top performer vs companies with similar KPIs in Industrials |
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| 59<br>Adj. EBITDA Margin<br>5-year average(2)<br>FCF Conversion<br>5-year average(3)<br>Total Shareholder Return<br>5-year average<br>vs. Fertilizers #1 #1 #1 (1)<br>(count = 4)<br>vs. Materials #1 #1 #3<br>(count = 30)<br>(count = 78)<br>vs. Industrials Top 10% Top 40% Top 25%<br>vs. S&P 500 Top 15% Top 40% Top 15%<br>CF a top performer vs companies with similar KPIs in the S&P 500 |
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| CF trades at a discounted valuation despite compelling KPIs<br>10.7%<br>7.1%<br>4.5%<br>4.0% 4.3%<br>0%<br>2%<br>4%<br>6%<br>8%<br>10%<br>12%<br>CF Industries Fertilizer Average Materials Averag e Industrials Averag e S&P 500 Average<br>60<br>FCF Yield (LTM)(1) FCF Yield (FY2025E)(2) |
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| Strong balance sheet and liquidity provide financial resilience<br>61<br>Notes / Bonds Amt Out Coupon<br>4.0 0%<br>5.00 %<br>6.00 %<br>$0<br>$200<br>$40 0<br>$60 0<br>$80 0<br>Dec-26 Mar-34 Jun-4 3 Mar-44<br>Only one near-term debt maturity(1)<br>of all long-term<br>debt fixed rate<br>100%<br>Gross Debt/Adj. EBITDA<br>as of 12/31/2024*<br>1.3x<br>to maintaining investment<br>grade rating<br>Committed<br>Cash & short-term investments<br>as of 12/31/2024<br>$1.6B<br>Revolver<br>as of 12/31/2024<br>$750M<br>~$2.3B<br>Strong liquidity(1)<br>Current credit rating<br>BBB/Baa2<br>$ millions<br>* Non-GAAP financial measure; see Appendix for reconciliations to the most directly<br>comparable GAAP financial measures |
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| Near-term capital allocation deployment<br>Share repurchase<br>authorizations<br>through 2029(1)<br>Dividend yield(2) Low-carbon<br>capacity growth<br>through 2029(3)<br>$2.6B 2.2% $2.0B<br>62 |
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| $3.40 $3.16 $2.74 $2.24<br>$4.21<br>$7.18<br>$3.67<br>$2.40<br>$223<br>$270 $277<br>$242<br>$438<br>$633<br>$399<br>$354<br>0<br>100<br>200<br>300<br>400<br>500<br>600<br>700<br>0<br>2<br>4<br>6<br>8<br>10<br>12<br>14<br>201 7 201 8 201 9 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024<br>CF through-the-cycle metrics as reported<br>63<br>CF urea realized average sales price $/ST<br>CF realized gas cost $/MMBtu |
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| $969<br>$1,403 $1,610 $1,350<br>$2,743<br>$5,880<br>$2,760<br>$2,284<br>2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 8-year Average<br>8-year average<br>~$2.4B<br>CF historical performance through-the-cycle<br>Adjusted EBITDA ~$2.4B as reported<br>64 |
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| Our mid-cycle is calculated based on the urea price<br>to incentivize new capacity additions in key regions<br>65<br>NOLA urea price<br>~$355/ST(1) |
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| We achieve ~$25/ton premium in realized urea price vs NOLA<br>66<br>$223<br>$270 $277<br>$242<br>$438<br>$633<br>$399<br>$354<br>$207<br>$259 $245 $227<br>$493<br>$599<br>$354<br>$320<br> $-<br> $100<br> $200<br> $300<br> $400<br> $500<br> $600<br> $700<br>201 7 201 8 201 9 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024<br>CF realized urea price<br>Urea benchmark (NOLA barge)(1)<br>Average premium<br>vs NOLA<br>(excluding 2021)<br>~$25/ton |
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| $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00<br>$300 $1.5 $1.4 $1.3 $1.1 $1.0 $0.8 $0.7<br>$350 $2.3 $2.2 $2.0 $1.9 $1.7 $1.6 $1.5<br>$400 $3.0 $2.9 $2.8 $2.6 $2.5 $2.4 $2.2<br>$450 $3.8 $3.7 $3.5 $3.4 $3.3 $3.1 $3.0<br>$500 $4.6 $4.4 $4.3 $4.1 $4.0 $3.9 $3.7<br>$550 $5.3 $5.2 $5.0 $4.9 $4.8 $4.6 $4.5<br>$600 $6.1 $5.9 $5.8 $5.7 $5.5 $5.4 $5.2<br>CF Industries mid-cycle Adj. EBITDA of $2.5B<br>67<br>Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity to Natural Gas and Urea Prices(1)<br>$ billions CF Realized Natural Gas Cost ($/MMBtu)<br>CF Realized Urea Price ($/ton)(2)<br>$380 ~$2.5B<br>$3.50 |
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| Both approaches support ~$2.5B mid-cycle Adj. EBITDA<br>68<br>Through-the-cycle<br>Adj. EBITDA (ex. Inflation)<br>Price to incentivize<br>new capacity<br>$<br>$2.5B |
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| Decarbonization provides ~$200M EBITDA annually<br>~$115M<br>projected EBITDA per year(1)(2)<br>United States 45Q<br>tax incentives for CCS<br>Low-carbon Premium<br>$25-$50/ton<br>$50 - $100M<br>projected EBITDA per year(1)<br>Decarbonization CO2<br>Donaldsonville, LA<br>69 |
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| Mid-teens return expected on our Blue Point investment<br>70<br>CF investment of ~$2B<br>for Blue Point low-carbon<br>facility, start-up 2029<br>~$300M<br>CF Blue Point<br>Underwriting Case<br>Operational<br>Excellence<br>$50-100 Price<br>Premium/CBAM<br>CF Blue Point<br>Expected Return ~2030 |
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| Strategic initiatives expected to provide 20% EBITDA growth<br>$2,500 $200 $300<br>Current<br>Mid-Cycle<br>EBITDA<br>Monetizing<br>Decarbonization<br>Blue Point Expected<br>Mid-Cycle<br>EBITDA ~2030<br>$ millions ~$3,000<br>+20%<br>71 |
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| Expected 2030 mid-cycle EBITDA implies ~$2B FCF generation<br>$2,500<br>~ $3,000<br>~ $1,500<br>~ $2,000<br>Current Mid-Cycle EBITDA Expected Mid-Cycle ~2030<br>EBITDA<br>FCF<br>FCF Growth<br>33%<br>FCF/Adj. EBITDA<br>Conversion<br>~65%<br>based on historical<br>8-10% FCF yield<br>$20-$25B<br>valuation<br>72 |
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| Closing<br>Remarks<br>Tony Will<br>President and Chief Executive Officer<br>73 |
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| Advantaged<br>Production<br>Unmatched<br>Distribution<br> & Logistics<br>Network<br>Operational<br>Excellence<br>Disciplined<br>Capital<br>Stewardship<br>74<br>OUR STRATEGY<br>Leverage our unique capabilities |
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| Our formula for success<br>17<br>30<br>39<br>52<br>2010 2015 2020 2025F(2)<br>CAGR<br>~7%<br>75<br>Decreased share count<br>56%<br>Increased production capacity<br>36%<br>Estimated by December 31, 2025<br>Annual Nitrogen Equivalent<br>Tons per 1,000 Shares Outstanding(1) |
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| Our formula for success<br>17<br>30<br>39<br>52<br>65<br>2010 2015 2020 2025F 2030F (2) (3)<br>CAGR<br>~7%<br>76<br>Expected<br>by 2030<br>Decreased share count<br>62%<br>Increased production capacity<br>46%<br>Annual Nitrogen Equivalent<br>Tons per 1,000 Shares Outstanding(1)<br>Estimated by December 31, 2030 |
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| Q&A<br>Moderator: Martin Jarosick<br>77 |
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| Thank you! |
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| Appendix |
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| Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA<br>and adjusted EBITDA<br>(1) Loanfee amortizationis<br>includedinbothinterest<br>expense(income)—net and<br>depreciationandamortization<br>In millions Q1 2025 LTM FY 2024<br>Net earnings $ 1,590 $ 1,477<br>Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interest (254) (259)<br>Net earnings attributable to common stockholders 1,336 1,218<br>Interest expense (income)—net 11 (2)<br>Income tax provision 309 285<br>Depreciation and amortization 893 925<br>Less other adjustments:<br>Depreciation and amortization in noncontrolling interest (85) (91)<br>Loan fee amortization(1) (4) (4)<br>EBITDA $ 2,460 $ 2,331<br>Unrealized net mark-to-market gain on natural gas<br>derivatives — (35)<br>Loss on foreign currency transactions 1 —<br>Impact of employee benefit plan policy change (16) (16)<br>Loss on sale of Ince facility 23 —<br>Integration costs 1 4<br>Total adjustments 9 (47)<br>Adjusted EBITDA $ 2,469 $ 2,284<br>80 |
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| Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA<br>and adjusted EBITDA, continued<br>In millions FY 2023 FY 2022 FY 2021 FY 2020<br>Net earnings $ 1,838 $ 3,937 $ 1,260 $ 432<br>Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrollinginterest (313) (591) (343) (115)<br>Net earnings attributabletocommonstockholders 1,525 3,346 917 317<br>Interest (income) expense—net (8) 279 183 161<br>Income taxprovision 410 1,158 283 31<br>Depreciationand amortization 869 850 888 892<br>Less other adjustments:<br>Depreciation and amortization in noncontrollinginterest (85) (87) (95) (80)<br>Loanfee amortization(1) (4) (4) (4) (5)<br>EBITDA $ 2,707 $ 5,542 $ 2,172 $ 1,316<br>Unrealizednet mark-to-market (gain) loss onnatural gas<br>derivatives<br>(39) 41 25 (6)<br>COVIDimpact: Special COVID-19 bonus for operational workforce — — — 19<br>COVIDimpact: Turnarounddeferral(2) — — — 7<br>Loss onforeigncurrency transactions, includingintercompany<br>loans<br> — 28 6 5<br>U.K. goodwill impairment — — 285 —<br>U.K. long-livedandintangible asset impairment — 239 236 —<br>U.K. operations restructuring 10 19 — —<br>Engineering cost write-off(3) — — — 9<br>Acquisitionandintegrationcosts 39 — — —<br>Loss onsaleof surplus land — — — 2<br>Impairment of equitymethodinvestment inPLNL 43 — — —<br>Gainonsaleof Pine Bendfacility — — — —<br>Property insuranceproceeds(4) — — — (2)<br>Unrealizedgainonembeddedderivative liability — (14) — —<br>Pensionsettlement loss andcurtailmentsgains—net — 17 — —<br>Loss ondebt extinguishment — 8 19 —<br>Totaladjustments 53 338 571 34<br>AdjustedEBITDA $ 2,760 $ 5,880 $ 2,743 $ 1,350<br>(1) Loanfee amortizationis includedin<br>bothinterest (income) expense—net<br>anddepreciationandamortization<br>(2) Represents expenseincurredduetothe<br>deferral of certainplant turnaround<br>activities as a result of the COVID-19<br>pandemic<br>(3) Represents costs writtenoff uponthe cancellationof aproject at oneof our<br>nitrogencomplexes<br>(4) Represents proceeds relatedto a<br>property insurance claimat one of our<br>nitrogen complexes<br>81 |
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| Non-GAAP: reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA<br>and adjusted EBITDA, continued<br>In millions FY 2019 FY 2018 FY 2017 Net earnings $ 646 $ 428 $ 450<br>Less: Net earnings attributable tononcontrollinginterests (153) (138) (92)<br>Net earnings attributable to common stockholders 493 290 358<br>Interest expense—net 217 228 303<br>Income tax provision (benefit) 126 119 (575)<br>Depreciation andamortization 875 888 883<br>Less other adjustments:<br>Depreciationandamortization innoncontrollinginterests(1) (82) (87) (101)<br>Loan fee amortization(2) (9) (9) (12)<br>EBITDA $ 1,620 $ 1,429 $ 856<br>Unrealized net mark-to-market loss (gain) on natural gas derivatives 14 (13) 61<br>(Gain) loss on foreign currency transactions, includingintercompany loans (1) (5) 2<br>Gain on sale of Pine Bend facility (45) — —<br>Property insurance proceeds(3) (15) (10) —<br>Costs related to acquisition of TNCLP units — 2 —<br>PLNLtax withholdingcharge(4) 16 — —<br>Equity methodinvestment tax contingency accrual(5) — — 7<br>Loss on embedded derivative(6) — — 4<br>Loss on debt extinguishment 21 — 53<br>Gain on sale of equity method investment — — (14)<br>Total adjustments (10) (26) 113<br>AdjustedEBITDA $ 1,610 $ 1,403 $ 969<br>(1) For 2018, amount includes $83 million<br>related to CF Industries Nitrogen, LLC<br>and $4 million related to Terra Nitrogen<br>Company, L.P. (TNCLP) as we<br>repurchased the remaining outstanding<br>TNCLP units on April 2, 2018<br>(2) Loan fee amortization is included in both<br>interest expense—net and depreciation<br>and amortization<br>(3) Represents proceeds related to a property<br>insurance claimat one of our nitrogen<br>complexes<br>(4) Represents a charge on the books of Point<br>Lisas Nitrogen Limited (PLNL), the<br>company’s Trinidad joint venture, for a tax<br>withholding matter. Amount reflects our<br>50% equity interest in PLNL<br>(5) Represents an accrual recorded on<br>the books of PLNL for a disputed tax<br>assessment. Amount reflects the<br>company's 50 percent equity<br>interest in PLNL<br>(6) Represents the loss onthe<br>embeddedderivative included<br>withinthe terms of the company's<br>strategic venture with CHS<br>82 |
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| Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash<br>flow, free cash flow yield and free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA<br>conversion<br>In millions, except percentages Q1 2025<br>LTM<br>FY 2024 FY 2023 FY 2022 FY 2021<br>Cash provided by operating activities $ 2,412 $ 2,271 $ 2,757 $ 3,855 $ 2,873<br>Capital expenditures (552) (518) (499) (453) (514)<br>Distributions to noncontrolling interest (293) (308) (459) (619) (194)<br>Free cash flow $ 1,567 $ 1,445 $ 1,799 $ 2,783 $ 2,165<br>Free cash flow yield(1) 10.7 % 10.0 % 12.0 % 16.7 % 14.7 %<br>Shares outstanding(2) 162.0 169.9 188.2 195.6 207.6<br>Share price — US dollars(2) 90.71 85.32 79.50 85.20 70.78<br>Market Cap $ 14,685 $ 14,496 $ 14,962 $ 16,665 $ 14,694<br>Adjusted EBITDA $ 2,469 $ 2,284 $ 2,760 $ 5,880 $ 2,743<br>Free cash flow to Adjusted EBITDA conversion(3) 63% 63% 65% 47% 79%<br>(1) Represents annual and Q1 2025<br>LTM free cash flow dividedby<br>market value of equity (market<br>cap) as of December 31st for<br>each year and May 31st for Q1<br>2025 LTM<br>(2) Shares outstanding and share<br>price as of May 31st for Q1 2025<br>LTM as reported in FactSet and<br>December 31st for each full year<br>as reported<br>(3) Represents annual and Q1 2025<br>LTMfree cashflowdividedby<br>annual and Q1 2025 LTM<br>adjustedEBITDA<br>83 |
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| Non-GAAP: reconciliation of cash from operations to free cash<br>flow, free cash flow yield and free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA<br>conversion, continued<br>In millions, except percentages FY 2020 FY 2019 FY 2018 FY 2017<br>Cash provided by operating activities $ 1,231 $ 1,505 $ 1,497 $ 1,631<br>Capital expenditures (309) (404) (422) (473)<br>Distributions to noncontrolling interests (174) (186) (139) (131)<br>Free cash flow $ 748 $ 915 $ 936 $ 1,027<br>Free cash flow yield(1) 9.0 % 8.9 % 9.7 % 10.3 %<br>Shares outstanding as of period end 214.0 216.0 222.8 233.3<br>Share price as of period end — US dollars(2) 38.71 47.74 43.51 42.54<br>Market Cap $ 8,284 $ 10,312 $ 9,694 $ 9,925<br>Adjusted EBITDA $ 1,350 $ 1,610 $ 1,403 $ 969<br>Free cash flow to Adjusted EBITDA conversion(3) 55 % 57 % 67 % 106 %<br>(1) Represents annual free cashflow<br>dividedbymarket valueof equity<br>(market cap) as of December 31st<br>for eachyear<br>(2) Source: FactSet<br>(3) Represents annual free cashflow<br>divided by annual adjusted EBITDA<br>84 |
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| Non-GAAP: reconciliation of gross debt to adjusted EBITDA<br>In millions, except percentages FY 2024<br>Gross debt(1) $ 2,971<br>Adjusted EBITDA $ 2,284<br>Gross debt / Adjusted EBITDA 130 %<br>(1) Represents the long-termdebt balanceonthe Company’s Consolidated BalanceSheet as of December 31, 2024 |
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| Presentation Notes<br> • MT refers to metric tons<br> • Tons refers to short tons<br>86 |
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| Footnote directory<br>Slide 19 (1) Share repurchases and dividends for the year ended December 31, 2024<br>Slide 20 (1) The growth investment amount is equal to the cash invested in organic and inorganic growth less cash received from divestitures and does not reflect any<br>capital contributions from CHS Inc. with respect to its noncontrolling interests<br>Slides 21, 22, 23, 24 Notes:<br> • Five, ten, and fifteen years through May 31, 2025<br> • The peer group is comprised of Nutrien, Yara International, and Mosaic<br> • Nutrien’s returns are calculated using weighted returns of Agrium’s and The Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan’s pre-merger prices based on Agrium’s and<br>The Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan’s exchange ratios • Post-merger returns calculated based on Nutrien’s performance since the January 2, 2018, completion of the merger of Agrium and The Potash Corporation of<br>Saskatchewan<br> • Source: Total shareholder return is calculated by and is sourced from Capital IQ on June 1, 2025<br>Slide 25 (1) Equal to the sum of the ~$630M remaining, as of March 31, 2025, in the share repurchase program authorized in Q4 2022 and set to expire in December 2025,<br>plus the $2.0B share repurchase program authorized in Q2 2025 and set to expire in December 2029<br>(2) CF’s portion of the estimated capital expenditure for Blue Point is $1.5B for the ammonia production facility plus $550M for scalable infrastructure<br>Slide 26 (1) All N production numbers based on year-end figures as disclosed in applicable 10-K filings<br>(2) Assumes completion of the ~$630M remaining, as of March 31, 2025, in the share repurchase program authorized in Q4 2022 and set to expire in December<br>2025 using the share price of $78.15 on March 31, 2025, for an estimated shares outstanding of approximately 157 million shares<br>87 |
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| Footnote directory<br>Slide 31 (1) $/MMBtu equivalent is calculated using transport costs per ton of urea divided by 23 MMBtu per ton<br>Source: Industry Publications, CF Analysis<br>Slide 38, 39, 40, 41 Source: Industry Publications, CF Analysis<br>Slide 42 Source: Industry Publications, CF Analysis<br>Slide 43 (1) CRU demand growth includes traditional and clean energy growth at ~1.5% total CAGR<br>Notes:<br> • Protein consumption growth measured by nitrogen consumption associated with feed grains and hay/grassland<br> • Population/income growth measured by nitrogen consumption associated with rice, food use for corn and wheat, fruits and vegetables, oilseeds, fibers,<br>cash crops, and non-feed use of grains<br>Source: IFA FUBC, FAO, USDA, Industry Publications, CF Analysis<br>Slide 44 (1) CRU demand growth includes traditional and clean energy growth at ~1.5% total CAGR<br>(2) Includes Blue Point (U.S.), Woodside (U.S), Qatar Energy (Qatar), TA’ZIZ (UAE)<br>(3) Includes capacity additions in the U.S., India, Russia, Australia, Nigeria and Mexico<br>Sources: Industry Publications, IFA, CF Analysis; capacity additions include CF-assessed firm projects<br>Slide 45 Source: Argus and CF Analysis<br>88 |
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| Footnote directory<br>Slide 46, 47, 48 (1) Premium based on CF Analysis and the projected 2030 carbon border adjustment mechanism<br>Slide 50 (1) Per 200,000 work hours as of March 31, 2025<br>(2) The 8% figure represents the difference between CF Industries' actual trailing 5-year average North American capacity utilization of 96%, or 9.4 million tons per year, and an 88% capacity utilization benchmark calculated by removing CF Industries' annual reported production and capacity from CRU<br>production and capacity data for CF Industries' North American ammonia production peer group. The CRU North American ammonia production<br>peer group consists of AdvanSix, Austin Powder (US Nitrogen), Carbonair, CF Industries, Chevron, CVR Partners, Dakota Gasification Co, Dyno Nobel,<br>Fortigen, Incitec Pivot, Koch Industries, LSB Industries, LSB Industries/Cherokee Nitrogen, Mississippi Power, Mosiac, Nutrien, OCI N.V., RenTech<br>Nitrogen, Sherritt International Corp, Shoreline Chemical, Simplot, Yara International<br>Source of data: December 17, 2024 CRU Ammonia Database<br>Slide 51 Per 200,000 work hours as of March 31, 2025<br>Slide 53 (1) Source of data: December 17, 2024 CRU Ammonia Database<br>(2) Represents CF Industries historical North American production and CRU’s capacity estimates for CF Industries<br>(3) Calculated by removing CF Industries’ annual reported production and capacity from the CRU data for all North American ammonia production peer<br>group<br>(4) The 8% figure represents the difference between CF Industries' actual trailing 5-year average North American capacity utilization of 96%, or 9.4 million tons per year, and an 88% capacity utilization benchmark calculated by removing CF Industries' annual reported production and capacity from CRU<br>production and capacity data for CF Industries' North American ammonia production peer group. The CRU North American ammonia production<br>peer group consists of AdvanSix, Austin Powder (US Nitrogen), Carbonair, CF Industries, Chevron, CVR Partners, Dakota Gasification Co, Dyno Nobel,<br>Fortigen, Incitec Pivot, Koch Industries, LSB Industries, LSB Industries/Cherokee Nitrogen, Mississippi Power, Mosiac, Nutrien, OCI N.V., RenTech<br>Nitrogen, Sherritt International Corp, Shoreline Chemical, Simplot, Yara International<br>(5) Capital investment savings based on purchase price for Koch's acquisition of OCI Global's fertilizer plant in Wever, Iowa and that plant's production<br>capacity<br>89 |
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| Footnote directory<br>Slide 54 (1) Note: Emissions intensity: annual Scope 1 GHG emissions (metric tons CO2e)/annual gross ammonia production<br>(2) Expansion plants at Donaldsonville and Port Neal<br>Slide 58 (1) World-scale plant represent 1.1 MMT of nameplate capacity<br>Source: Industry Publications, CF Analysis<br>Slide 59 (1) 80% represents the partners 60% offtake plus the tons available for upgrade at CF’s Billingham plant in the UK<br>Slide 64 (1) Last twelve months share repurchases and dividends through March 31, 2025<br>Slide 65 (1) Includes share repurchases and dividends from 2017-Q1 2025<br>(2) Inorganic growth includes CF’s acquisition of its Waggaman ammonia production plant<br>Note:<br> • See Appendix for reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures<br>Slides 66, 67, 68, 69 Source: S&P Capital IQ for Revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, Cash from Operations, Capital Expenditures and TSR as of May 31, 2025.<br>Financial metrics sourced from S&P Capital IQ may vary from actual reported results of the constituent companies due to<br>different definitions, variations in accounting treatments or other reasons, and such companies may not use identical<br>calculations for similarly titled measures<br>(1) Fertilizers group consists of CF Industries, Nutrien, Yara and Mosaic. Materials, and Industrials are based on S&P 500 sub-indexes<br>(2) Adjusted EBITDA Margin is calculated using Adjusted EBITDA/Revenue using Capital IQ sourced data.<br>(3) FCF Conversion is calculated using Cash from Operation less Capital Expenditures divided by Adjusted EBITDA using<br>Capital IQ sourced data<br>90 |
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| Footnote directory<br>91<br>Slide 70 Source: Capital IQ as of May 31, 2025<br>(1) CF's FCF Yield calculated as using Q1 LTM FCF divided by a market cap of $14.7M as of May 31, 2025<br>(2) FCF Yield 2025E uses consensus analyst estimates as of May 31, 2025 as reported in Capital IQ. Fertilizers group consists of<br>CF Industries, Nutrien, Yara and Mosaic. Materials and Industrials are based on S&P 500 sub-indexes. Financial estimates<br>sourced from Capital IQ may vary from any estimates of the constituent companies due to different definitions, variations<br>in accounting treatments or other reasons, and such companies may not use identical calculations for similarly titled<br>estimates<br>Slide 71 (1) As of December 31, 2024<br>Slide 72 (1) Equal to the sum of the ~$630M remaining, as of March 31, 2025, in the share repurchase program authorized in Q4 2022<br>and set to expire in December 2025, plus the $2.0B share repurchase program authorized in Q2 2025 and set to expire in<br>December 2029.<br>(2) As of May 30, 2025<br>(3) CF portion of Blue Point Capex of $1.5B plus common facilities of $550M for a total estimated capital of $2B<br>Slide 74 Note:<br> • See Appendix for reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial<br>measures<br>Slide 75 (1) Source: CF Analysis<br>Slide 76 (1) Sourced from FertWk base<br>Slide 77 (1)Based on 2024 sales volumes of approximately 18.9 million product tons, 2024 gas consumption of 346 million MMBtus and<br>2024 nitrogen product sales price relationships. Changes in product prices and gas costs are not applied to the CHS minority<br>interest or industrial contracts where CF Industries is naturally hedged against changes in product prices and gas costs.<br>Excludes EBITDA benefit of UK carbon credit sales<br>(2)Assumes that a $50 per ton change in urea prices is also applied proportionally to all nitrogen products and is equivalent to a $34.78 per ton change in UAN price, $36.96 per ton change in AN price, $89.14 per ton change in ammonia price, and $21.20<br>per ton change in the price of the Other segment<br>Slide 79 (1) Based on successful implementation of announced CCS projects within the CF network<br>(2) Includes Donaldsonville CCS & Yazoo City CCS projects |
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| Footnote directory<br>92<br>Slide 85, 86 (1) All N production numbers based on year-end figures per applicable 10-K filings<br>(2) Assumes completion of the ~$630M remaining. as of March 31, 2025, in the current share repurchase authorization<br>authorized in Q4 2022 and set to expire in December 2025, using the share price of $78.15 on March 31, 2025, for an<br>estimated shares outstanding of approximately 157 million shares<br>(3) Assumes completing the new $2 billion dollar share repurchase program authorized in Q2 2025 by December 31, 2029,<br>reflecting an estimated shares outstanding of ~135 million |
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