Earnings Call Transcript - FDX Q3 FY2026

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the FedEx Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Call. All participants are in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then 1 on your touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then 2. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jenny Hollander, Vice President, Investor Relations.

Jeni Hollander, Head of Investor Relations

Good afternoon and welcome to FedEx Corporation's third quarter earnings conference call. The third quarter earnings release, Form 10Q and StatBook are on our website at investors.fedex.com. This call and the accompanying slides are being streamed from our website. During our Q&A session, callers will be limited to one question to allow us to accommodate all those who would like to participate. Certain statements in this conference call may be considered forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. For additional information on these factors, please refer to our press releases and filings with the SEC. Today's presentation also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to investors.fedex.com for a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. Joining us for prepared remarks on the call today are Raj Subramaniam, President and CEO, Brie Carreri, Executive Vice President and Chief Customer Officer, and John Dietrich, Executive Vice President and CFO. Now, I'll turn the call over to Raj.

Raj Subramaniam, CEO

Thank you, Jenny. First, I want to extend a sincere thank you to Team FedEx for delivering very strong results this quarter, supported by an exceptional peak, our most profitable yet. The team's commitment to make every FedEx experience outstanding and their consistent execution drove our strong Q3 financial performance. I also want to express my gratitude to our team members in the Middle East. Their safety and security is our top priority. We are closely monitoring the situation, have implemented contingencies, and are operating in alignment with local authorities as we continue delivering the best possible service to our customers. Our strong Q3 results were largely driven by Federal Express Corporation, or FEC, demonstrating the power and resilience of our global industrial network. As we recently outlined at our Investor Day, the entire FEC organization is aligned in making progress across our four strategic priorities. growing in high margin verticals transforming our network and building on our data and technology advantage while delivering ongoing efficiency gains our strategy enabled us to deliver sequential and year-over-year adjusted eps growth for fedex corp ahead of our expectations coming into the quarter this operational performance combined with our capex discipline is translating to strong adjusted free cash flow additionally our plans to spin off fedex freight on june 1 remain on track we are confident that the separation will unlock meaningful long-term value for our stockholders Turning to our consolidated Q3 results, revenue was up 8% year-over-year, driven by yield and volume strength across nearly all our package services. And we delivered a 7% increase in adjusted operating income year-over-year as we successfully managed headwinds tied to changing global trade policies, a challenging LTL demand environment, and the grounding of our MD-11 fleet. We also effectively overcame significant weather-related service constraints. At FEC, we grew revenue 10% and expanded adjusted operating margin by 50 basis points. This marked our sixth consecutive quarter of margin expansion, allowing us to grow adjusted operating income 18 percent this is a clear proof point that our commercial strategy to move up the value chain is working at the same time we are executing on our transformation and cost reduction priorities as anticipated freight results remain pressured as a result of ongoing ltl industry industry trends, along with increased separation-related expenses. Importantly, we are laser-focused on revenue quality. As a result, higher weights and revenue per shipment at FedEx Freight help mitigate lower shipment volumes. Given the strength of our consolidated Q3 results and updated assumptions for Q4, we We are raising our FY26 adjusted earnings outlook to $19.30 to $20.10 per diluted share. Bree and John will detail the outlook assumptions shortly. Revenue share gains in our priority B2B verticals were an important driver of our Q3 performance. Similar to Q2, nearly half our revenue growth were driven by B2B services, an important enabler of increased profitability. Our transformation into one integrated intelligent network is well underway. By the end of this month, about 35% of eligible volume will flow through nearly 400 network 2.0 optimized facilities. We remain on track for about 65% of our eligible volume to be flowing through network 2.0 facilities by next peak. and we continue to expect two billion dollars in cumulative savings from network 2.0 and associated one fedex initiatives by end of 2027. this was our first peak with meaningful volume flowing through network 2.0 facilities and the results speak for themselves data-driven solutions continue to support the network 2.0 rollout and played a crucial role in enhancing service during peak. We recently introduced our unload trailer prioritization tool which uses real-time data to intelligently sequence yard operations based on trailer content. As Network2.0 facilities scale, this capability becomes increasingly important, enabling us to better understand a trailer service mix, especially during morning source. This tool supports strong service levels by helping prioritize our most time-critical packages even more efficiently. Internationally, we continue to flex our air network in response to global trade policy changes. We reduced Trans-Pacific outbound purple and white tail capacity by approximately 15% and 25% respectively during the quarter. Asia to Europe and intra-Asia, where we are reallocating some of our purple tail capacity, continue to drive strong revenue growth. In a quarter with significant package volume growth, we reduced net capacity, jet fuel usage, and vehicle fuel usage, signaling our success in densifying this network. The team continues to focus on transformation in Europe, where we achieved our 11th consecutive quarter of international revenue share gains. In January, we shared plans to transform our ground operations in France with the goal of improving the experience for employees, contractors, and customers. As part of this effort, we plan to simplify our domestic footprint, optimize our road network, streamline our value proposition and leverage digital capabilities to enhance France's competitiveness. More specifically, we are optimizing the hub and spoke network with fewer, better placed hubs and reducing our overall station count by over 40%. Last month, we also announced our participation in a consortium, making an offer for all shares of in post as i discussed at our recent investor day high value b2b verticals are a core priority within our profitable growth strategy at the same time our commitment to provide excellent service to consumers around the world remains unchanged in post strong presence and highly profitable track record in europe's out-of-home delivery segment complements our strategy allowing us to focus on our core strengths. This transaction is expected to be accretive to our earnings in year one upper close, which is targeted for the second half of calendar year 2026. Upon completion of the transaction, we will enter into commercial agreements that are expected to yield benefits to both parties. Importantly, FedEx and InPost will not integrate operations and we will remain competitors each operating in their respective markets and segments at our invest today we highlighted the role of fedex digital intelligence as our force multiplier reshaping how we plan operate serve customers and create new services a great example of new value creation for our digital intelligence so strategic collaboration with dun and bradstreet together Together, we will be launching the Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx DataWorks Retail Momentum Index, an early warning system designed to detect crucial inflection points in U.S. retail supply and demand. Combining vast amounts of shipping intelligence and business data insights, we can provide a near real-time aggregated view of U.S. retail supply and demand. this intelligence can help business leaders detect inflection points before they appear in traditional economic reports like monthly retail sales or inventory data we plan to release this index monthly beginning this spring marking the start of growing collaboration to develop additional joint insights for the market physical ai is another critical element of our longer term strategy which will complement and strengthen our extensive and indispensable industrial network unloading trailers is one of the most physically demanding tasks in our package operations last month we announced the implementation of a new autonomous robotic system from berkshire gray the scoop robotic package unloader this collaboration nicely complements our partnership with Dexterity, which provides robots for trailer loading. Both collaborations are in the pilot phase and expected to be further deployed later this calendar year. This work signals our commitment to both the safety of our team members and to innovation that improves the efficiency and profitability of our operations. In closing, we delivered a strong quarter while successfully navigating a dynamic environment. We grew in high-margin verticals. We continued to transform our network. We leveraged our data and technology capabilities to enhance execution and value creation. Team FedEx performed exceptionally well, delivering great service for our customers during the critical peak season and beyond. I'm truly grateful for their performance. Now over to you, Bree.

Brie Carere, Analyst — Other

Thank you, Raj. I would like to add my thanks to our team members for delivering another incredible peak season. On a year-over-year basis, we increased volume and improved service during the quarter, all while delivering faster to more locations in the competition. In December, we delivered the best monthly revenue performance in our company history, which, of course, supported strong Q3 earnings growth. We served our customers with excellence during this critical period and delivered on our targeted growth strategy, while, of course, remaining disciplined on pricing. With our team's focus and outstanding execution, we grew FEC revenue 10%, driven by 10% U.S. domestic package revenue growth. This marked our highest quarterly U.S. domestic revenue since fiscal year 22. International export package revenue also grew a strong 8%. Europe and the Asia to Europe lane stood out as key drivers. We continued to win profitable share in the global air freight market, delivering 14% growth in international priority and economy freight revenue, supported by our tricolour strategy. At FedEx Freight, revenue declined 5%, pressured by lower shipments. We are encouraged by our sequential increases in both revenue per shipment and in the attainment of contractual price increases as FedEx freight prioritizes revenue quality in a challenged LTL market. At FEC, we grew average daily U.S. domestic volume by 5%. Our strategic focus on B2B verticals supported 7% volume growth in U.S. priority and deferred express services. international export volumes inflected positively for the first time in fiscal year 26 up two percent year-over-year this is an impressive achievement given the sustained declines on the trans-pacific lane due to the dynamic global trade environment this international growth is a direct result of our targeted strategy to reroute capacity to our asia europe and intra-asia lane both of which delivered significant revenue growth, along with continued growth in U.S. international outbound and our European region. At FedEx Freight, in line with continued challenging LTL industry trends, shipments declined 6%. With nearly all of the planned, dedicated LTL sales force now hired, we are confident freight is well-positioned to grow as the market recovers. Our pricing strategy is driving yield growth. These trends are a direct result of our focus on high-value shipments and industry-leading service, supported by an improving pricing environment. We have seen strong capture rates on the 5.9% general rate increase we implemented in January. We also enhanced our dimensional pricing models both in package and express freight, supported by machine learning tools that improve accuracy. Additionally, the adjustment to fuel surcharge we put in place in December supported our Q3 results. At FEC, U.S. domestic package yield increased 5%, driven by strength across all services. International export package yield grew 6%, driven by higher weight per shipment tied to the de minimis change, favorable currency, and revenue quality actions. At FedEx Freight, revenue per shipment increased 1%, primarily due to the increased weight per shipment. Regarding fuel, at both FEC and FedEx Freight, we update our fuel surcharges weekly based on the current fuel price. Our U.S. domestic and U.S. export package and freight fuel surcharges are indexed to fuel prices published by the U.S. Department of Energy, allowing us to protect profitability during periods of energy price volatility. At our Investor Day, we detailed our plans to drive disciplined growth in the segments where our differentiation matters the most to our customers, specifically high-value B2B and specialized B2C. We are encouraged by our Q3 wins and growing sales pipeline across key B2B verticals. Our sales team has done a phenomenal job selling bundled FEC services to our customers, supporting higher win rates and a stronger customer loyalty. Within health care, we continue to grow our core transportation revenue along with value-added services. To attract new business and pharma, where we are currently underpenetrated, we are enhancing our offering to serve the specialized, unique needs of our customers with extreme emphasis on quality. Just last week, we onboarded a health care-focused vice president of quality who brings deep external experience in global health care logistics. This newly created position will help strengthen our global quality governance and harmonize standards across our network. I am excited about the pace at which our team is introducing new innovations at FedEx. Last month, we announced FedEx Returns Plus, a market-leading AI-powered digital tracking and returns offering for our customers. Our new capabilities enable shippers to simplify the customer experience after checkout, inventing more visibility, communication, and efficiency into the shipper's own digital channels with direct connectivity to our near real-time data. The early market reaction for this U.S. launch has been very positive, and we're excited to expand the offering to Europe this coming April. Shifting now to our revenue outlook for fiscal year 26 and for the fourth quarter. Factoring in Q3 FEC strength and our expectation that these trends will persist, we now expect a 6% to 6.5% consolidated revenue growth this fiscal year compared to our prior 5% to 6% growth forecast. This implies a 6% to 7.5% revenue growth in Q4 on a consolidated basis. At FEC, the midpoint of our full year range now implies approximately 8% revenue growth year over year. In Q4, we forecast approximately 8% FEC revenue growth at the midpoint, driven by strong U.S. domestic and international yields. As we lean further into our strategy to grow in high margin verticals, we expect sustained yield growth. We expect U.S. domestic volume growth to continue in Q4. As a reminder, we will be lapping the onboarding of significant health care revenue, which creates a difficult comp for our U.S. priority service in Q4. At FedEx Freight, we now expect fiscal year 26 revenue to be down low single digits year-over-year, with revenue flat to down slightly in Q4 due to the continued LTL industry demand weakness. We continue to expect Q4 yield growth to provide an offset to a mid-single-digit percentage decline in shipments. In closing, we have a winning commercial strategy and you are seeing the direct results of this strategy. Our team executed exceptionally well this peak season, delivering for our customers and positioning us for a very strong finish to the fiscal year. Thank you, Team FedEx, for your outstanding work. And now I'll turn it over to John.

John Dietrich, CFO

Thanks, Bree. Our Q3 results highlight our team's commercial execution in delivering premium revenue growth while aggressively managing our costs in a very dynamic environment. And we achieved these strong results while also continuing to advance our longer-term transformational and strategic initiatives. On a year-over-year basis, we grew Q3 adjusted operating income by 7 percent and delivered strong adjusted EPS growth of 16 percent. I should note that our Q3 adjusted EPS includes a one-time benefit of 41 cents due to a favorable effective tax rate impact of 99 million dollars related to our business restructuring in Brazil and we delivered these results while navigating the impact of global trade policy changes, demand pressures at FedEx Freight, and the grounding of our MD-11 fleet. This is a true testament to the tireless focus of our team and the resilience of our premier global industrial network. Now providing more segment detail for Q3 on a year-over-year basis. At FEC, we grew adjusted operating income by $252 million, or 18%. them. This was driven by both base yield and volume improvement, as well as execution on our cost reduction priorities. Growth in premium revenue in our international export lanes, particularly U.S. outbound in our Asia to Europe lane, contributed to adjusted operating income improvement in the quarter. Yield trended better than expected, which reflects the improving pricing environment both in u.s domestic and international and we'll be focused on continuing this momentum in the fourth quarter with respect to our fleet q3 marked the first full quarter with our md11 fleet grounded my sincere thanks go out to our world-class team including our pilots network planning and flight operations teams who did an outstanding job adjusting the network under very difficult circumstances to mitigate the operational and financial impacts of the grounding during the peak season in total the mv11 grounding led to a headwind of 120 million dollars of adjusted operating income in the quarter due to higher operating costs and lost revenue and we expect an additional year-over-year headwind in q4 of up to 55 million dollars as we plan to begin returning these aircraft to service late in the quarter. At FedEx Freight, adjusted operating income declined to $127 million year-over-year as industry market softness and demand pressure continued, along with added separation costs related to the freight spin. Specifically, we incurred approximately $60 million in separation-related costs that were not adjusted out of our results these costs were primarily related to hiring and other necessary standalone public company costs that will drive long-term stockholder value creation however base yield improvements partially offset these spin and demand headwinds referring to our outlook and given our better than expected q3 performance along with expected and sustained positive trends at fec we're increasing our fy26 adjusted diluted earnings per share forecast to $19.30 to $20.10. This compares to our prior range of $17.80 to $19. The midpoint of our outlook range implies Q4 adjusted EPS of approximately $5.80, which would be our highest quarterly earnings of the year and is directionally consistent with typical trends. However, due to the strength of our peak profitability in Q3, we do not expect as large of a sequential increase in third to fourth quarter earnings as we've seen in recent years. Additionally, the one-time tax benefits in this year's Q3 and freight's $33 million gain on sale of a facility in last year's Q4 skews sequential comparisons. I'll also note that our revised outlook does not include any incremental share repurchases in Q4. As a result, we expect an EPS headwind from share dilution based on a Q4 common share equivalent assumption of approximately 242 million shares, bringing our FY26 expected average to 239 million shares. In addition, and due to FedEx Freight's recent debt issuance, we also anticipate a headwind in the quarter due to the resulting higher interest costs and in total this combined impact from higher share count and interest cost represents an approximate 10 cent sequential and year-over-year headwinds that we've embedded in our q4 outlook in q4 we'll continue to strategically prioritize high value revenue growth while continuing to reduce our structural costs all while advancing our other strategic priorities such as tricolor and network 2.0 and this will support our expectation for sequential growth in adjusted operating income in Q4. At FEC, we anticipate both sequential and year-over-year growth in adjusted operating income, despite year-over-year headwinds from higher variable incentive compensation, global trade policy changes, lapping the onboarding of several high-margin health care customers, and continued MD-11 impacts. We also expect FedEx freight Q4 revenue to be flat to down slightly and adjusted operating income to be down on a year-over-year basis. And this again is due to the LTL market softness condition and higher separation costs that I referenced. The lapping of the gain on sale I mentioned earlier also results in a tougher Q4 comparison. Turning now to our updated fy 26 full year adjusted operating income bridge this bridge shows the year-over-year elements embedded in our full year outlook in one midpoint scenario resulting in adjusted operating income of 6.5 billion dollars up 300 million dollars versus our prior outlook in this scenario fec volume related revenue net of variable cost is now expected to be a 600 million tailwind. This is a hundred million dollar improvement compared to what we shared with you in December. This is driven largely by better U.S. domestic package and international export demand trends. With respect to FEC yield, we now expect a 3.2 billion dollar tailwind. This marks a 200 million dollar improvement compared to what we shared in December and demonstrates our ongoing commitment to revenue quality and improved pricing for base expense increase we now assume 1.6 billion dollars in year-over-year general expense increases related to higher wage and purchase transportation rates and other inflationary factors this is a 500 million dollar improvement versus our december assumption we're pleased with our year-to-date cost reduction progress and now expect to exceed this year's 1 billion dollar savings target our bridge also includes partial offsets to these items. Most remain unchanged from what we shared in December, except for the FedEx freight and variable incentive compensation headwind. We now expect a $400 million decline in adjusted operating income at FedEx freight compared to the $300 million expectation we shared in December. Additionally, we now expect variable incentive compensation to be an $800 million headwind, reflecting our commitment to rewarding our employees with regard to the middle east our outlook assumes a modest headwind tied to business impact in the region we'll continue to monitor the situation as a reminder also embedded in our assumptions is the continued revenue and profit headwinds from global trade policy changes which are more than offset by transformation related savings turning to capital allocation we're maintaining our disciplined approach to capital and are prioritizing capital toward reinvesting in the business including network 2.0 and returning cash to stockholders assistant with this approach we're now anticipating fy26 capex to be no more than 4.1 billion dollars down at least 400 million dollars from the 4.5 billion dollar forecast we provided in december We also remain committed to bringing aircraft CapEx to $1 billion or below this fiscal year and through 2029. Our CapEx discipline, coupled with the higher adjusted operating income expectation, supports further upside to the FY26 adjusted free cash flow assumption of $3.8 billion we previously shared. The adjusted free cash flow potential of our business holds significant value, and we're well on our way and committed to achieving our $6 billion adjusted free cash flow target in 2029 for FedEx Corp, excluding freight. As we shared at Investor Day, we'll continue to evaluate share repurchases on an opportunistic basis. We also plan to use share repurchases to offset dilution beyond FY26 and maintain our share count to the FY26 average count level in support of our 2029 adjusted EPS target of $25, excluding FedEx Freight. Before turning to Q&A, a quick update on our FedEx Freight separation plan. Raj mentioned our planned June 1, 2026 spin-off of FedEx Freight remains on track. FedEx Freight successfully completed a $3.7 billion debt offering in January, and this was an important milestone as Freight intends to dividend the net proceeds to FedEx Corp. in connection with the spin-off. And given that this is our last earnings call before the spin-off, we've invited Freight CEO John Smith and CFO Marshall Witt to join us today to participate in the Q&A. As a reminder, they'll be holding their FedEx rate investor day on April 8th in New York City. With that, let's open the call up for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star than two. Please limit yourself to one question. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question today is from Ari Rosa with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Ari Rosa, Analyst — Citigroup

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question and congrats on a strong result here. Raj, I was hoping you could speak about the impact of the Iran conflict. I understand, you know, obviously we're only a few weeks in here, but just talk to us about how you're adjusting the network and to what extent it's maybe disrupting flows and to what extent it would have a bit of a profit headwind in this or fourth quarter? Thanks.

Raj Subramaniam, CEO

Thank you, Ari. First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers go out to the team members in the region and all those impacted by the conflict. While the situation remains fluid, the safety of our team members always comes first. I have to tell you that our team has done just an absolutely remarkable job of managing our network in very quick fashion to accommodate the conflict of zone and moving the traffic around that and at this point we are assuming that the broader global demand from q3 continues into q4 and our first two weeks of march essentially are in line with that trend the middle east itself is a relatively small part of our total revenue and uh you know so we'll obviously monitor these trends as we go forward i'll just add on to this i know there's a comment um maybe people are thinking about fuel as well i would just say that fuel is part of our pricing strategy and our net fuel impact especially at fec is expected to be relatively muted for fec for the fourth quarter hopefully that answers your

Operator

question, Ari. The next question is from Stephanie Moore with Jeffries. Please go ahead.

Stephanie Moore, Analyst — Jeffries

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you. And echo that, congrats on the quarter. Since we do have John and team on the line, I wanted to touch on the LTL business a little bit. You clearly called out, John, some investments that we saw during the quarter having an impact on year-over-year profitability, but also noted some pressure and underlying volume. As you think about your outlook for the fourth quarter and then, you know, maybe even a 12-month outlook. Can you talk a bit about those magnitude of investments we should expect to see? You know, is the fiscal 3Q a level, something that we'd expect going forward? Should we expect to see a step up? And then maybe any commentary on just the overall volume environment as well? Thanks. Thank you, Stephanie. Let me have

Raj Subramaniam, CEO

Marshall with our CFO for FedEx Freight to answer that question. Hey, Stephanie. Thanks for the

Marshall Witt, CFO

question so let me first just talk about the quarter three results and then i'll touch on q4 so as you saw in the prepared remarks our volume and revenue were down mid single digits um that's not unique to the freight that's uh you know it's a broader um reflection of the ltl industry itself as we look at the actual investments that we saw that we're defining or showing as separation costs we did see some increased separation costs in q3 and anticipate that to continue in q4 We look at those as good cost incurrences primarily because they're related to building out our IT infrastructure, which we will need as part of our spin, which is projected to be at six on six one and also building out our talent and that represents both folks that are coming on board externally and folks that are transitioning over from FedEx Corporation. Having those folks and those platforms being built now and being ready to address the spinoff the standalone FedEx rate is a positive outcome for us. And then as regards to your question about the outlook over the next, call it 12 months or four quarters and beyond, we plan to speak to

Operator

that further at Investor Day. The next question is from Risha Harnain with Deutsche Bank. Please go

Risha Harnain, Analyst — Deutsche Bank

ahead. Hey, can you guys hear me okay? Hello? Yes, we can. Oh, perfect. Hi, everyone. So, you know, And John, I think you did a really great job like comprehensively running down of what's embedded in the outlook, but just big picture, you know, on one hand, given the strong base and kudos to you on a very good Q3 outcome, you're assuming less of a sequential step I think that's clear, but on a year over year basis, the incremental margin in FEC sort of does come in. And as Raj, you just reminded us, you are assuming sort of demand hangs in in Q4. So just wanted to better understand the headwinds on Q4. And I know it's very early, but looking at fiscal 27, you know, network 2.0 starts to ramp, and you have a ton of momentum underlying your business. Do you think that we could look forward to EPS growth? I know it's early, but wanted to give that one a shot.

Raj Subramaniam, CEO

Yeah, well, Rachel, let me try to address that, and then, of course, John can add to it. uh strategically one of the things that's very important from a sequential perspective that we need to be aware of is that our team has done just an absolutely outstanding job uh this peak season is the most profitable peak in our fedex history now let me help you understand why this was the case first we did a fantastic job of forecasting we're much more disciplined and data driven and we help our forecast and operated and that better modeling and close customer collaboration led to a much more effective resourcing for peak and with this resourcing on both sides scaling up and also scaling down post fee second we have you know the commercial team did a really nice job managing through the strategies in place especially driving revenue quality in in the peak season and finally the efficiency with which we operated and you know We have some early wins from Network 2.0 as we got into this. And the new technology tools that we talked about also helped a lot. So between our improved forecasting and the efficiencies thereof, between our commercial strategies and our overall efficiency, we had a really, really good peak. The reason I bring this out here today is that these are permanent changes on how we operate and really making a structural shift how we think about peak profitability. and consequently the traditional seasonalities of our business is now fundamentally altered as our Q3 strength becomes a new standard. So that's one thing you got to keep in mind as we look on a quarter or quarter basis. On a year-over-year basis, it's pretty straightforward. We have a $500 million headwind in the year-over-year basis. $275 million is because of of variable comp, there is $135 million because of the LTL business and a $50 million there are from MD-11s. They explain your over-year impact on the Northwell. So hopefully that puts it in picture, gives you a context and understanding of how we guided you for the full fiscal year.

Operator

The next question is from Scott Group with Wolf Research. Please go ahead.

Scott Group, Analyst — Wolfe Research

Hey, thanks. Afternoon. So, you know, if I take a step back, we've got domestic volume up mid-single digit plus, domestic yield up mid-single digits, international volume just turned positive, international yields are up a lot. And I asked this in the context of, like, I don't think we're seeing this anywhere else in freight world. Like, I guess I don't really understand why we're seeing this mix of volume and yield growth. And ultimately, I guess my question is, like, how sustainable is this going forward? Or do we need to start thinking about some, like, impossible, like, revenue comp for next year? Just any thoughts about why this is happening and how sustainable?

Raj Subramaniam, CEO

Thank you, Scott. I give you a brief.

Brie Carere, Analyst — Other

Thank you for the question, Scott. I think, first of all, this has been a couple years in the making, right? We have been incredibly focused. We shared a lot of this at Investor Day that we really needed to retrench the team, and we have done so to be equally disciplined on B2B and B2C. We have a world-class value proposition in B2C and have had that for many years. as you know, that enabled us a 20-year run rate of market profitable market share growth. And we had to retrench on B2B. And we've done that. And we've got the commercial team really, really focused on that. So we feel great about this quarter. We do acknowledge that this is an anomaly in the market. We have taken profitable market share 11 consecutive quarters in Europe. Here in the United States, this is the strongest profitable market share growth we have seen in more than 20 years so it was a remarkable quarter we feel good about these trends continuing in q4 a couple of things to note that near the end of q4 we will lap the momentum that we are seeing on the international priority volume domestically here we we acknowledge we took on some very large health care customers late last year and we will laugh that that being said from a total volume perspective we've got some momentum um that will make sure that we sustain this as we come out of this year into next year the goal that we expressed in investor day is still our goal we're focusing on four percent revenue growth we want to stay incredibly disciplined that four percent target allows us to make sure we maintain revenue quality but we feel like we've got great momentum as we exit the year and feel good about next year

Raj Subramaniam, CEO

Well said, Brie. Let me make a couple of points. One, what Brie meant was domestic priority volume, not international, so just make sure they get that. But secondly, let me take this opportunity to give a huge congrats to Brie and her commercial team. The execution has been just absolutely stellar, so busy to the whole team. The next question is from David Vernon with

David Vernon, Analyst — Bernstein

Bernstein. Please go ahead. Hey guys, thanks for taking the question. So maybe just drilling in on that a little bit, Bree. If you look at the priority and deferred, that 6% and 9% sort of ADV growth, I'm assuming that's where the healthcare is. And then the ground and home delivery piece is really where the Amazon sort of big and heavy is. Can you confirm that? And then if you think about the impact that the Amazon onboarding is having with the big and heavy stuff, like how much is that driving of what percentage of the growth is being driven by that in the ground part of the business? Great question. So yes, the

Brie Carere, Analyst — Other

answer is from a domestic priority perspective that is where you will see the majority of the healthcare there is a little bit in the deferred but actually the deferred volume is actually coming from the momentum that we have in our small and medium customer segment and so it's actually more spread between b2b and b2c that's actually not just healthcare so i anticipate that deferred momentum will actually continue into next year from a home delivery yes that is where you will the majority of the amazon volume um it is still ramping um and it is not material um in this quarter and we don't anticipate it will be material um we feel really good about the partnership just a huge shout out to the operators as they're bringing this volume on we've been really disciplined um it will be a creative they will not be our top customer and it was not material in the quarter but it absolutely is in there the next question is from ken hexter

Ken Hexter, Analyst — Bank of America

with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Hey, great. I'll echo it. Great job. Great to see the share gains, Network 2.0 rollout gains and the Europe rebound for so many quarters. But want to hit on the high end and low end of your outlook. It seems like salaries and benefits up 13% year over year at FEC. John, you mentioned some of the incentive comp, purchase trends, cost scaling. But I guess given the combination, I would have guessed that costs would have come down a bit as you eliminate overlapping costs maybe walk us through how the math works there and and what we should expect on that uh going forward thanks uh thanks ken i think in large

John Dietrich, CFO

part um the impact that you're talking about relates to volume um and so i it really that's that's the factor that's in play here you know we feel really good about our cost containment and all the initiatives that we have in place to manage our costs. There's been some harmonization with regard to our benefits. And another big piece of this, too, is the variable comp piece that we've been talking So I think those three factors are all in play.

Operator

The next question is from Tom Waterwitz with UBS. Please go ahead.

Tom Waterwitz, Analyst — UBS

Good afternoon and congratulations on the strong results and execution. So I wanted to get your thoughts about the kind of potentially tighter air freight market. You know, I think the events in the Middle East and just how would you potentially see some benefit come through in your international? Would that be, assuming there's a benefit from, you know, a tighter air freight market, would that be on price? Would that be in the, you know, kind of IP freight or IP package? Or how do we think about the, you know, kind of maybe is that something you expect? and where would that benefit come through in international? Thank you.

Brie Carere, Analyst — Other

Hey, Tom, it's great. So I think first and foremost is that we have, if we think about the mid-range or the midpoint of the range as we head into Q4, we are not expecting material impact because of the conflict in the Middle East. So I think that's the most important. From a fuel perspective, the fuel index is doing its job. It's adjusted weekly. It will cover and ensure that we maintain profitability. At the beginning of March, obviously, significant capacity came out of the market. Actually, I think at the peak, it was close to 20% of air cargo capacity came out. That has now leveled off, and it's closer to 10%. We have adjusted our pricing accordingly. We do have demand surcharges in place today. And so the team, as Raj mentioned, is just doing an outstanding job of keeping an eye on capacity, pricing. A huge shout out to our air ops and our engineering team who are working tirelessly to manage this. But right now, we do not expect any material impact in Q4, and the team is just executing policy.

Operator

The next question is from Connor Cunningham with Milius Research. Please go ahead.

Connor Cunningham, Analyst — Milius Research

Hi, everyone. Thank you. Maybe just, I mean, I realize that the spike in energy is relatively new. But I was hoping you could give some perspective on historical, how demand has trended after a sustained, elevated energy environment, whether it's on your B2B partners or your B2C partners. I'm just curious if you could just help talk a little bit about demand shock. When would you expect that to happen? I realize you're not seeing it now, but if it were, what are you looking for? How are you talking to customers today? What are they saying to you currently about their outlook right now?

Raj Subramaniam, CEO

Thank you, Conor, for the question. Obviously, there are so many factors that go into demand. As we look into the fourth quarter, our current expectation is that the demand trends fundamentally remain unchanged, and our first two weeks in March have essentially been in line with our expectation. Obviously, we will monitor this extremely carefully. one thing that you hopefully will now recognize is that you're focused on the things that we can control and the resilience that now we have built into our system to manage through these kind of changes so that's what we're doing we expect you know the demand trends to be reasonably to continue into the q4 as we have laid out and we'll again monitor and adjust as we need

Operator

The next question is from Jonathan Chappelle with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Jonathan B. Chappell, Analyst — Evercore ISI

Good afternoon. John Smith and Marshall, I know you'll probably touch on this on April 8th, but want to take the opportunity here as well. Now, if you look at the margin at FedEx rate, it's like at a five-year low. I understand that the macro is not great. You're obviously hiring a bunch of people trying to get ready for the spin and to be a standalone company. But if we look at some of the other metrics like shipment rate of change is accelerating, weights moving up a little but not much, yields moving up a little but not much, it feels like this is more top line driven than maybe we're seeing in other parts of the LTL segment, especially over the last quarter or two. So what kind of stems the tide on those revenue drivers, those top line drivers? Is that something that's strictly macro or is there something that's going on as you're unbundling maybe from FEC to FedEx Freight that can kind of, I don't know, maybe flip the switch in the right macro backdrop as you start as a standalone entity?

Marshall Witt, CFO

Hey, Jonathan, this is Marshall. I'll start and then switch it over to John Smith if he has any follow-up questions. So a good observation, you know, generally at the highest level, I do think it's a broader LTL market that we're in, and there's nothing necessarily unique about our volumes and what we're seeing and the various attributes of revenue. But with that said, you know, we certainly recognize that we do and need to continue to improve our yield growth. If I think about where I believe those will come from, we will expect to continue to improve our customer experience, As Bree had mentioned, we expect to continue to be disciplined in our pricing, contract renewal. We also believe that the continued momentum will continue with this dedicated sales team, which John may speak to in a little bit, and then we'll continue to enhance our priority economy

John Smith, CEO

product offerings. Yeah, Jonathan, just to add to that, Marshall mentioned our sales team. I have been hiring since february you know a dedicated ltl sales team and we're basically complete with that and it's a mix of both great internal candidates and external hires and our goal is to provide you know an outstanding sales experience and it'd be data driven with personalized service for our customers so the sales team also is strategically positioned across our network to align closely with our customers and our operations, as well as our best asset, our drivers. So we're really excited about getting that team up and running and feel really good about the future going forward.

Operator

The next question is from Chris Weatherby with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Chris Weatherby, Analyst — Wells Fargo

Hey, thanks. Good afternoon, guys. I guess I wanted to ask on the cost side. So it looks like this year is trending better than expected. Did you sort of reduce the cost dynamic in the bridge? Sounds like you'll be above the billion dollars of savings. Although Raj, I think you mentioned 2 billion cumulative by the end of next year is still the way to think about it, I guess. Where are there further opportunities on the cost side? And maybe if we can take a peek a little early at the bridge for next fiscal year, I know you're going to be changing into calendar. So it's a little bit confusing there. But what are the big pieces we should be thinking about? I know trade costs drop away, but what are the other factors that are sort of in your

John Dietrich, CFO

Thanks, Chris. Yes, and really it's across the board is where we're focusing on our costs. We're delighted, as we said in our remarks, that we're going to be actually exceeding the billion dollars in transformation-related savings, and, you know, the improvement has been based on the favorable execution on our structural cost-out initiatives to drive and through SG&A. Our maintenance costs are down, and as I've said before in this category, we view that as kind of a journey not a destination uh it's part of our culture and so as we continue to migrate down one fedex network 2.0 we're going to be continuing to find and discover more and more savings opportunities and efficiencies and we're starting to see the leverage of that as you saw in q3 which was a large part of the benefit that we saw particularly uh in our base expense numbers. So we're excited about the future and where it's going to take us. And we're going

Operator

to be relentless in going after our costs. The next question is from Jordan Allager with

Jordan Allager, Analyst — Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Yeah. Hi. Afternoon. I'm just sort of curious that the ground commercial business, which I think has been up a percent or so the last couple of quarters, presumably that's business to business. So I'm just sort of wondering what B2B side of the equation will ultimately drive back growth right up thank you hi jordan thanks for the question so

Brie Carere, Analyst — Other

yes ground commercial is b2b um that is sort of the backbone of the the ground product portfolio from a focus perspective we think actually three of the four big healthcare or three of the four big vertical focuses are targeted in that area so we know automotive has opportunity in ground commercial we're very focused on that as i mentioned we've been looking at some of the opportunity to expand our weekend even further and use our weekend coverage for commercial purposes versus just e-commerce purposes and we see some opportunity there we know that as data centers expand that yes there will be some ltl business for my friends over at freight but in addition there is going to be some parcel business going to drive commercial up and then also i still have small business market share opportunity in this segment this is an opportunity um the team has done an outstanding job from an SMB perspective. It has really been a great win this year for us as well and really getting our field sales team focused on the ground commercial products. So those are some of the focus areas there and the opportunity. The next question is from Eric Morgan

Eric Morgan, Analyst — Barclays

with Barclays. Please go ahead. Hey, good evening. Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to follow up on the fuel comments. Raj, I know you mentioned the net surcharge impact will be relatively muted in FEC and 4Q. Can you just clarify what level of fuel prices you're assuming there? And then maybe just any help with the math I think would be helpful because I know you don't report surcharge dollars, but you have taken a lot of action on the surcharge curve moving it up over the last few years. So just curious how we should be thinking of the net fuel effect at

Brie Carere, Analyst — Other

different levels of fuel thanks yeah so it's a fair question um from a fuel surcharge perspective the price of fuel um it's not that relevant the index takes care of it um and so from a q4 perspective you know i think the implications are it's updated every week there is a lag so at the beginning of this quarter obviously we have some catch-up to do because of how quickly prices rose i think most important is as they come down we will also benefit because obviously we benefit for the lag on the way down in q4 we are not anticipating material upside from the fuel so it's really not relevant from a this quarter perspective the next question is from brian

Brian Ossenbeck, Analyst — JP Morgan

osenbeck with jp morgan please go ahead hey good afternoon um please to come back to marshall for a second here um you're talking about the impact of some of the i guess spin-off costs or separation costs from the business and it sounds like it's people and some hiring and investment and some of those are being held within they're not being adjusted out but then on the the walk to adjust dps there's an additional 100 million of separation costs that are actually are adjusted out so i just want to make sure understand what's what's in and what's out and what's what's increasing here and then maybe just following up on fuel to wrap it all up if you can just give us a sense in terms of how this whole how this fuel price spike will impact the freight business here

Marshall Witt, CFO

in the fourth quarter thank you okay Marshall over to you Brian I'll take it first in terms of the within and what's out so for both the gap and non-gap on the gap side those investments that I spoke to that you just confirmed are the key drivers for why we saw those accelerate from the beginning of the year to the end if you think about h1 versus h2 the majority of those costs within separation i'll call it gap separation costs and again they don't qualify as non-gap so they they are in included in gap expenses are driven by that from a non-gap the 700 million john dietrich will probably lean on you i think part of that increase is probably for the same reason it's the cost of investments in technology platforms and other professional fees that are related to building up those platforms i just wanted to check with you on that yeah thanks

John Dietrich, CFO

marshal and that's exactly right i think another important note is that incremental 100 million dollars we're talking about um is not incremental to the total project it's just acceleration of investment um that will benefit freight in the post spin environment so i want to make that point

John Smith, CEO

clear anyone take the fuel john john smith yeah i'll take the fuel uh when you think about it from a fedex freight perspective you know our fuel surcharge just like bre said the index updates weekly, and it's designed to protect our profitability. Our fuel surcharge is never truly a pure pass-through, but it's typically a net positive for FedEx freight above our cost of fuel. Now, the fuel surcharge can be a year-over-year headwind or a tailwind in any given year, and it's really, remember, only one element of our pricing strategy to truly drive improved

Operator

revenue quality. The next question is from Jason Seidel with TD Cowan. Please go ahead.

Jason Seidel, Analyst — TD Cowan

Thanks, Operator. Evening, everyone. Congratulations on the good quarter. I want to go back to the LTL front. And, you know, I think we all realize it's been a challenging demand environment for all the LTL characters. But, you know, we've just had two good, you know, industrial index numbers for the first time in forever. And I'm assuming that, you know, as you come to the end of hiring all the new salespeople, there's going to be a ramp time until they start producing some fruits for their labor. And should we look at this as going forward that you could see some, maybe some

John Smith, CEO

sequential tailwinds on the LTL side? Well, Jason, I hope you tune in to our investor day on April the 8th. That's where we're going to share a lot of detail about our go forward strategy. You know, and with that said, you know, anyone who knows me from my FedEx tenure knows that I always prioritize safety above all with a total focus on our people but also an extreme focus on revenue quality as well as strong execution so i look forward to introducing you to our senior leadership team and laying out our strategy over for the next several years going forward for freight and we put together a very strong team of internal and external talent on our leadership team and we're excited to share what we believe is an extremely compelling story of freight as a standalone public company. And again we will share long-term targets covering revenue, profit, other operational and financial metrics. This concludes our question and answer session.

Operator

I would like to turn the conference back over to Raj Subramaniam for any closing remarks.

Raj Subramaniam, CEO

Thank you, Operator. In closing, this quarter's results are a direct reflection of disciplined execution of our strategic priorities. I'm incredibly optimistic about our path forward and extend my sincere thanks to Team FedEx for their relentless focus and dedication. We will continue to build on this momentum as we deliver significant value for our customers

Operator

and stockholders. Thank you very much. The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.