6-K - GFR - Equibles

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 6-K

REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE ISSUER

PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 OR 15d-16

UNDER THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

For the month of November 2025.

Commission File Number 001-41810

GreenfireResources Ltd.

(Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter)

N/A

(Translation of Registrant’s name)

Suite 1900, 205 – 5^th^ Avenue SW

Calgary, Alberta T2P 2V7

(403) 264-9046

(Address and telephone number of registrant’s principal executive offices)

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant files or will file annual reports under cover of Form 20-F or Form 40-F.

Form 20-F ☐ Form 40-F ☒

INCORPORATION BY REFERENCE

Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 of this report on Form 6-K are each incorporated by reference into and as an exhibit to, as applicable, the Registrant’s Registration Statements under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended: Form S-8 (File No. 333-277054) and Form F-3 (File No. 333-282275).

GREENFIRE RESOURCES LTD.

DOCUMENTS INCLUDED AS PART OF THIS REPORT

Exhibit
99.1	Interim Consolidated Financial Statements (unaudited) for the period ended September 30, 2025
99.2	Management's Discussion and Analysis for the period ended September 30, 2025
99.3	News Release dated November 3, 2025 - Third Quarter 2025 Results, Operational Update, 2026 Guidance, and Refinancing Initiatives
99.4	News Release dated November 3, 2025 - Intent to Conduct C$300 Million Rights Offering

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.

Greenfire Resources Ltd.
By:	/s/ Colin Germaniuk
Name:	Colin Germaniuk
Title:	President

Date:November 4, 2025

Exhibit 99.1

CONDENSED INTERIM CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS(UNAUDITED)

For the three and nine month periods ended September 30, 2025

Greenfire Resources Ltd.

Condensed Interim Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)

As at			September 30		December 31
($CAD thousands)	note		2025		2024
Assets
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents			$	114,656	$	67,419
Accounts receivable		11		52,824		56,417
Inventories				20,549		14,946
Prepaid expenses and deposits				7,396		5,456
Risk management contracts		11		13,000		-
				208,425		144,238
Non-current assets
Property, plant and equipment		3		953,947		960,059
Deferred income tax asset				141,425		153,174
				1,095,372		1,113,233
				1,303,797		1,257,471
Liabilities
Current liabilities
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities				72,920		61,804
Current portion of long-term debt		4		10,719		248,489
Current portion of lease liabilities and other				4,861		7,014
Warrant liability		6		3,333		18,304
Risk management contracts		11		-		248
				91,833		335,859
Non-current liabilities
Long-term debt		4		311,150		80,441
Lease liabilities and other				2,722		2,296
Decommissioning liabilities		5		18,656		17,444
				332,528		100,181
				424,361		436,040
Shareholders’ equity
Share capital		7		166,872		164,402
Contributed surplus				8,314		8,921
Retained earnings				704,250		648,108
				879,436		821,431
			$	1,303,797	$	1,257,471

Related party transaction (note 13)

See accompanying notes to the unaudited condensedinterim consolidated financial statements

Greenfire Resources Ltd.	2025 Q3 Financial Statements	2

Greenfire Resources Ltd.

Condensed Interim Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss) (unaudited)

			Three months ended<br><br> September 30						Nine months ended<br><br> September 30
($CAD thousands, except per share amounts)	note		2025			2024			2025			2024
Revenues
Oil sales		8	$	141,137		$	193,643		$	469,316		$	614,077
Royalties				(4,538	)		(8,698	)		(15,294	)		(24,932	)
Oil sales, net of royalties				136,599			184,945			454,022			589,145
Gain (loss) on risk management contracts		11		(9,805	)		29,925			31,105			(18,568	)
				126,794			214,870			485,127			570,577
Expenses
Diluent expense				49,011			67,889			179,295			244,116
Transportation and marketing				11,459			12,481			38,059			38,993
Operating expenses				31,936			40,655			101,688			112,000
General and administrative				4,676			4,815			19,106			13,433
Stock-based compensation		10		1,186			2,365			2,836			5,785
Financing and interest		9		14,001			15,389			39,405			48,604
Depletion and depreciation		3		19,912			17,090			61,497			52,246
Exploration expenses				366			630			1,709			1,764
Other income				(1,069	)		(680	)		(2,442	)		(3,382	)
Loss (gain) on revaluation of warrants		6		(1,123	)		(389	)		(14,971	)		6,673
Foreign exchange loss (gain)				5,290			(4,291	)		(8,946	)		7,496
Total expenses				135,645			155,954			417,236			527,728
Net (loss) income before taxes				(8,851	)		58,916			67,891			42,849
Income tax (recovery) expense				(100	)		-			11,749			-
Net (loss) income and comprehensive (loss) income			$	(8,751	)	$	58,916		$	56,142		$	42,849
Net (loss) income per share
Basic		7	$	(0.12	)	$	0.85		$	0.80		$	0.62
Diluted		7	$	(0.12	)	$	0.82		$	0.80		$	0.60

See accompanying notes to the unaudited condensedinterim consolidated financial statements

Greenfire Resources Ltd.	2025 Q3 Financial Statements	3

Greenfire Resources Ltd.

Condensed Interim Consolidated Statements of Changes in Shareholders’ Equity (unaudited)

Nine months ended September 30
($CAD thousands)	note		2025			2024
Share capital
Balance, beginning of period			$	164,402		$	158,515
Issuance of shares on exercise of share units		7,10		2,470			4,019
Balance, end of period				166,872			162,534
Contributed surplus
Balance, beginning of period				8,921			9,788
Stock-based compensation				2,836			5,785
Issuance of shares on exercise of share units		7,10		(3,443	)		(5,269	)
Balance, end of period				8,314			10,304
Retained earnings
Balance, beginning of period				648,108			526,697
Net income and comprehensive income				56,142			42,849
Balance, end of period				704,250			569,546
Total shareholders’ equity			$	879,436		$	742,384

See accompanying notes to the unaudited condensedinterim consolidated financial statements

Greenfire Resources Ltd.	2025 Q3 Financial Statements	4

Greenfire Resources Ltd.

Condensed Interim Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (unaudited)

		Three months ended<br> September 30						Nine months ended<br> September 30
($CAD thousands)	note	2025			2024			2025			2024
Operating activities
Net (loss) income		$	(8,751	)	$	58,916		$	56,142		$	42,849
Items not affecting cash:
Income tax (recovery) expense			(100	)		-			11,749			-
Unrealized loss (gain) on risk management contracts	11		18,940			(36,012	)		(13,248	)		(10,114	)
Depletion and depreciation	3		20,317			17,632			62,245			52,718
Stock-based compensation	10		1,186			2,365			2,836			5,785
Accretion	9		3,478			4,883			7,734			12,493
Foreign exchange loss (gain)			5,505			(4,291	)		(9,601	)		7,496
Loss (gain) on revaluation of warrants	6		(1,123	)		(389	)		(14,971	)		6,673
Other income			(294	)		-			(294	)		-
Decommissioning costs			(1,107	)		-			(1,107	)		-
Change in non-cash working capital	12		10,713			(60,979	)		(316	)		(33,548	)
Cash provided by (used in) operating activities			48,764			(17,875	)		101,169			84,352
Financing activities
Repayment of long-term debt	4		(2,046	)		(84,278	)		(2,053	)		(84,278	)
Debt redemption premium	4		(102	)		(4,214	)		(102	)		(4,214	)
Payment of lease liabilities			(87	)		(92	)		(2,135	)		(192	)
Cash used in financing activities			(2,235	)		(88,584	)		(4,290	)		(88,684	)
Investing activities
Property, plant and equipment expenditures	3		(17,896	)		(21,175	)		(55,035	)		(74,919	)
Acquisitions			-			-			-			(3,714	)
Change in non-cash working capital (accrued additions to PP&E)	12		15,169			4,434			6,543			8,319
Cash used in investing activities			(2,727	)		(16,741	)		(48,492	)		(70,314	)
Exchange rate impact on cash and cash equivalents held in foreign currency	****	****	874	****	****	932	****	****	(1,150	)	****	2,830	****
Change in cash and cash equivalents			44,676			(122,268	)		47,237			(71,816	)
Cash and cash equivalents, beginning of period			69,980			159,977			67,419			109,525
Cash and cash equivalents, end of period		$	114,656		$	37,709		$	114,656		$	37,709

See accompanying notes to the unaudited condensedinterim consolidated financial statements

Greenfire Resources Ltd.	2025 Q3 Financial Statements	5

Notes to the Condensed Interim ConsolidatedFinancial Statements (unaudited)

CORPORATE INFORMATION

Greenfire Resources Ltd. (the “Company” or “Greenfire”) was incorporated under the laws of Alberta on December 9, 2022. These condensed interim consolidated financial statements (the “financial statements”) are comprised of the accounts of Greenfire and its wholly owned subsidiaries. The Company and its subsidiaries are engaged in the exploration, development and operation of oil and gas properties in the Athabasca oil sands region of Alberta. Greenfire’s common shares are publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “GFR”. The Company’s corporate head office is located at 1900, 205 5th Avenue SW, Calgary, AB T2P 2V7.

Throughout 2024, certain limited partnerships comprising Waterous Energy Fund and its affiliates (collectively, “WEF”), through a series of transactions acquired a total of 39,300,278 common shares and 2,654,179 common share purchase warrants of Greenfire. The final transaction in this series occurred on December 23, 2024 (the “Change of Control Transaction”), which resulted in WEF holding 56.5% of the Company’s outstanding common shares. At September 30, 2025, approximately 55.9% of the Company’s common shares were owned by WEF.

BASIS OF PRESENTATION

Preparation

These financial statements have been prepared in accordance with IAS 34: “Interim Financial Reporting, using the same accounting policies as those set out in Note 3 of the audited annual consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2024, which were prepared in accordance with IFRS^®^Accounting Standards as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board (“IASB”). Certain disclosures, which are normally required to be included in the notes to the audited annual consolidated financial statements, have been condensed or omitted. The financial statements should be read in conjunction with the Company’s audited annual consolidated financial statements and notes thereto for the year ended December 31, 2024.

The Company has adopted all published standards, interpretations or amendments to accounting standards issued by the IASB, that are effective for annual periods beginning on or after January 1, 2025. There was no material impact to the financial statements.

In these financial statements, all amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars (“$CAD”), unless otherwise indicated, which is the Company’s functional currency. These financial statements have been prepared on a historical cost basis, except for certain financial instruments which are measured at their fair value.

These financial statements were approved by Greenfire’s Board of Directors on November 3, 2025.

Standards issued but not effective

IFRS 18 'Presentation and Disclosure in Financial Statements' was issued in April 2024 by IASB and replaces IAS 1 'Presentation of Financial Statements'. The standard introduces defined structure to the Statement of Comprehensive Income (Loss) with related specific disclosure requirements. IFRS 18 is effective January 1, 2027 and is required to be adopted retrospectively. Early adoption is permitted. The Company is assessing the impact of IFRS 18 on its consolidated financial statements.

Greenfire Resources Ltd.	2025 Q3 Financial Statements	6

PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT (“PP&E”)

($ thousands)	Developed and producing		Right-of-use assets			Corporate assets		Total
Cost
Balance as at December 31, 2024		1,194,384		9,539			618		1,204,541
Additions		57,485		-			350		57,835
Transfers of right-of-use assets		1,545		(1,545	)		-		-
Remeasurement of right-of-use assets		-		(2,647	)		-		(2,647	)
Change in decommissioning liabilities		945		-			-		945
Balance as at September 30, 2025		1,254,359		5,347			968		1,260,674
Accumulated Depletion, Depreciation and Amortization
Balance as at December 31, 2024		243,494		546			442		244,482
Depletion and depreciation ^(1)^		61,803		283			159		62,245
Balance as at September 30, 2025		305,297		829			601		306,727
Net Book Value
Balance at December 31, 2024	$	950,890	$	8,993		$	176	$	960,059
Balance at September 30, 2025	$	949,062	$	4,518		$	367	$	953,947
(1)	As at September 30, 2025 $1.1 million of depletion and depreciation was capitalized to inventory (December 31, 2024- $0.3 million).
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LONG-TERM DEBT

Senior Secured Notes

The senior secured notes (the “2028 Notes”) bear interest at the fixed rate of 12.00% per annum payable semi-annually, mature on October 1, 2028. The 2028 Notes are secured by a second priority lien on the Company’s assets and are junior to amounts owing to the Senior Credit Facility lenders.

As at ( thousands)			December 31, 2024
Senior secured notes (“2028 Notes”) US	237,473		$	238,969
Foreign exchange rate	1.3921			1.4389
Senior secured notes (“2028 Notes”) CAD	330,586			343,852
Unamortized discount and issuance costs	(8,717	)		(14,922	)
Total term debt	321,869		$	328,930
Current portion of long-term debt	10,719			248,489
Long-term debt	311,150		$	80,441

All values are in US Dollars.

The 2028 Notes are not subject to any financial covenants but are subject to certain exceptions and qualifications. The indenture governing the 2028 Notes (the “2028 Indenture”) contains certain non-financial covenants that limit the Company’s ability to, among other things, incur additional indebtedness, create or permit liens to exist, pay dividends, redeem stock, make certain restricted payments, and sell assets. In addition, the Company is required to maintain financial hedges for a minimum of 50% of the forward twelve calendar month forecasted production^(1)^ until the outstanding principal is less than US$100 million, and to limit capital expenditures to US$150^(^^2)^ million annually until the outstanding principal is less than US$150 million. As at September 30, 2025 the Company was compliant with all covenants.

(1)	Forecasted<br>production is defined by the 2028 Indenture as the Company’s proved developed producing (“PDP”) forecast in the Company’s<br>most recent reserve report, as determined by a qualified and independent reserves evaluator, as prepared to the Canadian standard using<br>National Instrument 51-101.
(2)	On<br>March 10, 2025, the Company completed an amendment to the 2028 Note Indenture to increase the annual capital expenditure limitation from<br>CAD$100 million to US$150 million, until the outstanding principal amount of the 2028 Notes is less than US$150 million.
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Greenfire Resources Ltd.	2025 Q3 Financial Statements	7
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As the result of a Change of Control Transaction (Note 1), Greenfire was required to make an offer to repurchase the 2028 Notes, or a portion thereof. This offer expired on February 19, 2025, with $7,000 (US$5,000) of principal tendered for repurchase.

The 2028 Indenture requires the Company to redeem the 2028 Notes using its Excess Cash Flow (“ECF”) every six months (the “ECF Sweep”) at 105% of the principal amount plus accrued and unpaid interest. In addition to mandatory ECF Sweeps, the Company may voluntarily redeem some or all of the 2028 Notes at the redemption prices set out in the table below, inclusive of any applicable make-whole premium calculated on the principal being redeemed:

Redemption type	Applicable period
Mandatory ECF Sweep: 75% of ECF	Until consolidated<br>indebtedness(3)<br>< US150 million	5	%
Mandatory ECF Sweep: 25% of ECF	Until the 2028 Notes’ outstanding principal < US100 million	5	%
Voluntary	October 1, 2025 to September 30, 2026	6	%
Voluntary	October 1, 2026 to September 30, 2027	3	%
Voluntary	On or after October 1, 2027	0	%

All values are in US Dollars.

On July 21, 2025, the Company redeemed $2.0 million (US$1.5 million) of the 2028 Notes under the ECF Sweep, with the next redemption, if applicable, due by March 6, 2026. As at September 30, 2025, the carrying value of the Company’s long-term debt was $321.9 million and the fair value was $351.6 million (December 31, 2024 carrying value – $328.9 million, fair value - $371.2 million).

Senior Credit Facility

Greenfire has a reserve-based credit facility (the “Senior Credit Facility”) comprised of an operating facility and a syndicated facility. Total credit available under the Senior Credit Facility is $50.0 million comprised of a $20.0 million operating facility and a $30.0 million syndicated facility.

The Senior Credit Facility is a committed facility available on a revolving basis until May 31, 2026. The Senior Credit Facility may, subject to the lenders’ approval, be extended for a 364-day period. If the revolving period is not extended, the undrawn portion of the facility will be cancelled and any amounts outstanding would be repayable on May 31, 2027. The Senior Credit Facility is subject to a semi-annual borrowing base review, occurring in May and November of each year. The borrowing base is determined based on the lenders’ evaluation of the Company’s hydrocarbon reserves and their commodity price outlook at the time of each borrowing base review.

The Senior Credit Facility is secured by a first priority security interest on substantially all of the assets of the Company and is senior in priority to the 2028 Notes. The Senior Credit Facility contains certain covenants that limit the Company’s ability to, among other things, incur additional indebtedness, create or permit liens to exist, pay dividends, redeem stock, and sell assets. The Senior Credit Facility is not subject to any financial covenants.

Amounts borrowed under the Senior Credit Facility bear interest at a floating rate based on the applicable Canadian prime rate, US base rate, adjusted secured overnight financing rate or adjusted Canadian overnight repo rate average, plus a margin of 1.75% to 6.25% based on Debt to EBITDA ratio. A standby fee on the undrawn portion of the Senior Credit Facility ranges from 0.6875% to 1.5625% based on Debt to EBITDA ratio. As at September 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024, the Company had no amounts drawn under the Senior Credit Facility.

(3)	Consolidated indebtedness under the 2028 Indenture includes<br>amounts outstanding under the 2028 Notes, amounts outstanding under the Senior Credit Facility, and any leases that would be classified<br>as a “capital lease” under IAS^®^ 17 – Leases (superseded).
Greenfire Resources Ltd.	2025 Q3 Financial Statements	8
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Letter of Credit Facility

Greenfire maintains a separate $55.0 million letter of credit facility (the “EDC Facility”) with a Canadian bank that is supported by a performance security guarantee from Export Development Canada. The EDC Facility is available on a demand basis. As at September 30, 2025, the Company had $54.0 million (December 31, 2024 - $54.0 million) in letters of credit outstanding under the EDC Facility.

DECOMMISSIONING LIABILITIES

The Company’s decommissioning liabilities result from net ownership interests in petroleum assets including well sites, gathering systems and processing facilities. The Company estimates the total undiscounted escalated amount of cash flows required to settle its decommissioning liabilities to be approximately $341.1 million (December 31, 2024 - $340.8 million). For the period ended September 30, 2025, a credit-adjusted discount rate of 10.5% (December 31, 2024 - 10.5%) and an inflation rate of 2.0% (December 31, 2024 - 2.0%) were used to calculate the decommissioning liabilities. A 1.0% change in the credit-adjusted discount rate would impact the discounted value of the decommissioning liabilities by approximately $3.4 million with a corresponding adjustment to PP&E. The decommissioning liabilities are estimated to be settled in periods up to year 2077, with the majority being incurred between 2047 and 2077.

A reconciliation of the decommissioning liabilities is provided below:

As at<br><br> ($ thousands)	September 30, 2025			December 31, 2024
Balance, beginning of period	$	17,444		$	8,449
Acquisitions		-			12,483
Liabilities incurred		128			27
Change in estimates		817			(5,801	)
Decommissioning costs incurred		(1,107	)		-
Accretion expense		1,374			2,286
Balance, end of period	$	18,656		$	17,444

WARRANT LIABILITY

The outstanding warrants entitle the holder to purchase one common share of Greenfire, expire on September 19, 2028, and contain a cashless exercise feature, permitting an exercise without the payment of the exercise price by the issuance of a net, lower number of common shares. The warrants are remeasured to their fair value at each reporting period with the change recognized through the statement of comprehensive income (loss). The following table reconciles the warrant liability.

	Nine months ended<br> <br>September 30, 2025					Year ended<br> <br>December 31, 2024
($ thousands, unless otherwise noted)	Warrants (‘000)		Amount			Warrants (‘000)		Amount
Balance, beginning of period		7,527	$	18,304			7,527	$	18,630
Change in fair value		-		(14,971	)		-		(326	)
Balance, end of period		7,527	$	3,333			7,527	$	18,304
Greenfire Resources Ltd.	2025 Q3 Financial Statements	9
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The fair value of each warrant was estimated using the Black Scholes Merton model with the following assumptions:

	September 30, 2025			December 31, 2024
Share price $USD	$	4.62		$	7.06
Exercise price $USD	$	11.50		$	11.50
Average risk-free interest rate		4.24	%		4.49	%
Average expected volatility ^(1)^		41	%		45	%
Average expected life (years)		3.00			3.75
(1)	Expected volatility has been based on historical share volatility and that of similar market participants.
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A 10% change in the share price would impact warrant liability by $1.2 million with a corresponding adjustment to the statement of comprehensive income (loss).

7. SHARE CAPITAL AND PER SHARE AMOUNTS

Share capital

As at September 30, 2025 the Company’s authorized share capital consists of an unlimited number of common shares without a nominal or par value. The following table summarizes the changes to the Company’s common share capital:

	Nine months ended<br> <br>September 30, 2025				Year ended<br> <br>December 31, 2024
($ thousands, unless otherwise noted)	Shares (‘000)		Amount		Shares (‘000)		Amount
Balance, beginning of period		69,718	$	164,402		68,642	$	158,515
Issued on exercise of share units^(1)^		535		2,470		1,076		5,887
Balance, end of period		70,253	$	166,872		69,718	$	164,402
(1)	Differences in the number of exercised units compared to those disclosed in stock-based compensation (Note 10) and the value recognized<br>in contributed surplus relates to withholding taxes on issuances (Note 12).
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Per share amounts

The following table summarizes the Company’s basic and diluted net (loss) income per share:

	Three months ended<br> <br>September 30					Nine months ended<br> <br>September 30
(thousands of shares, except per share information)	2025			2024		2025		2024
Weighted average shares outstanding - basic		70,253			69,334		70,083		69,061
Dilutive effect of performance warrants		-			1,673		-		1,569
Dilutive effect of share units		-			1,231		95		930
Weighted average shares outstanding - diluted		70,253			72,238		70,178		71,560
Basic $ per share	$	(0.12	)	$	0.85	$	0.80	$	0.62
Diluted $ per share	$	(0.12	)	$	0.82	$	0.80	$	0.60

When computing the diluted net income (loss) per share for the three months ended September 30, 2024, the Company excluded the effect of 0.1 million share units as their effect was anti-dilutive.

Greenfire Resources Ltd.	2025 Q3 Financial Statements	10

8. REVENUE FROM CONTRACTS WITH CUSTOMERS

The Company’s revenue from contracts with customers consists of diluted and non-diluted bitumen sales.

	Three months ended<br> <br>September 30				Nine months ended<br> <br>September 30
($ thousands)	2025		2024		2025		2024
Diluted bitumen sales	$	135,129	$	187,066	$	445,335	$	595,724
Non-diluted bitumen sales		6,008		6,577		23,981		18,353
Oil sales	$	141,137	$	193,643	$	469,316	$	614,077

9. FINANCING AND INTEREST

	Three months ended<br> <br>September 30				Nine months ended<br> <br>September 30
($ thousands)	2025		2024		2025		2024
Interest on senior secured notes	$	10,130	$	10,496	$	29,908	$	34,915
Other interest		393		10		1,763		1,196
Total finance and interest expense before accretion		10,523		10,506		31,671		36,111
Amortization of issuance costs and premiums (Note 4)		2,899		4,217		5,811		10,621
Accretion of decommissioning obligations (Note 5)		458		631		1,374		1,804
Accretion of lease liabilities		121		35		549		68
Accretion		3,478		4,883		7,734		12,493
Financing and interest expense	$	14,001	$	15,389	$	39,405	$	48,604

10. STOCK-BASED COMPENSATION

A summary of the Performance Warrants (“PWs”), Restricted Stock Units (“RSUs”), Performance Share Units (“PSUs”) and Deferred Share Units (“DSUs”), collectively the share units, issued and outstanding is as follows:

(thousands of units or warrants)	PWs			RSUs			PSUs			DSUs		Total
Outstanding January 1, 2024		3,617			-			-			-		3,617
Granted		-			672			919			21		1,612
Exercised^(1)^		(1,080	)		(519	)		-			-		(1,599	)
Forfeited / Expired		(17	)		(17	)		(44	)		-		(78	)
Balance, December 31, 2024		2,520			136			875			21		3,552
Exercisable, December 31, 2024		2,520			-			-			21		2,541
(thousands of units or warrants)	PWs			RSUs			PSUs			DSUs			Total
---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
Outstanding January 1, 2025		2,520			136			875			21			3,552
Granted		-			13			18			-			31
Exercised^(1)^		(970	)		(48	)		-			-			(1,018	)
Forfeited / Expired		(152	)		(6	)		(639	)		-			(797	)
Cancelled		(1,398	)		-			-			(21	)		(1,419	)
Balance, September 30, 2025		-			95			254			-			349
Exercisable, September 30, 2025		-			-			-			-			-
(1)	Differences in exercised awards compared to those disclosed in share capital (Note 7) relate to withholding taxes on share issuances<br>(Note 12).
---	---
Greenfire Resources Ltd.	2025 Q3 Financial Statements	11
---	---

11. FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND RISK MANAGEMENT

Fair Value of Financial Instruments

A number of the Company’s accounting policies and disclosures require the determination of fair value for both financial and non-financial assets and liabilities. Fair values have been determined for measurement and/or disclosure purposes based on the following methods. When applicable, further information about the assumptions made in determining the fair values is disclosed in the notes specific to that asset or liability.

The Company classifies the fair value of financial instruments according to the following hierarchies based on the amount of observable inputs used to value the instruments:

●	Level1: Unadjusted quoted prices for identical assets or liabilities in active markets;
●	Level 2: Quoted prices in markets that<br>are not considered to be active or financial instruments for which all significant inputs are observable, either directly or indirectly<br>for substantially the full term of the asset or liability; and
---	---
●	Level 3: Significant unobservable inputs<br>for use when little or no market data exists, requiring a significant degree of judgment.
---	---

The carrying values of cash and cash equivalents, accounts receivable and accounts payable and accrued liabilities included on the condensed interim consolidated balance sheets approximates the fair values of the respective assets and liabilities due to the short-term nature of those instruments.

The 2028 Notes are classified as Level 1 in the fair value hierarchy. For purposes of estimating the fair value of this instrument, the Company used the quoted market price of the 2028 Notes. The Company’s risk management contracts and warrant liability are classified as Level 2 in the fair value hierarchy. To estimate the fair value of these instruments, the Company used observable market data and/or other sources utilizing assumptions that market participants would use to determine fair value.

Market Risk

Market risk is the risk that changes in market conditions, such as commodity prices, foreign exchange rates and interest rates, will affect the Company’s cash flow, income, or the value of its financial instruments.

Commodity Price Risk

The Company’s risk management program is designed to reduce the volatility of revenue and cash flow, generate sufficient cash flows to service debt obligations, and fund the Company’s operations. The Company’s risk management liabilities may consist of hedging instruments such as fixed price swaps and option structures, including costless collars on WTI, WCS differentials, condensate differential, natural gas and electricity swaps. The Company does not use financial derivatives for speculative purposes.

Greenfire Resources Ltd.	2025 Q3 Financial Statements	12

The Company’s obligations under its 2028 Notes (Note 4) include a requirement to maintain a twelve-month forward commodity price risk management program covering at least 50% of the forecasted PDP production over the next twelve months, as set out in the Company’s most recent reserves report, until the outstanding principal is reduced to below US$100 million.

The Company’s commodity price risk management program does not involve margin accounts that require posting of margin with increased volatility in underlying commodity prices. Financial risk management contracts are measured at fair value, with gains and losses on re-measurement included in the consolidated statements of comprehensive income (loss) in the period in which they arise.

The Company’s financial risk management contracts are subject to master netting agreements that create the legal right to settle the instruments on a net basis. The following table summarizes the gross asset and liability positions of the Company’s individual risk management contracts that are offset in the consolidated balance sheets:

As at<br><br> <br>($ thousands)	September 30, 2025			December 31, 2024
Gross amount	$	17,680		$	(1,395	)
Amount offset		(4,680	)		1,147
Risk management contracts – Asset (Liability)	$	13,000		$	(248	)

The following table summarizes the financial commodity risk management gains and losses:

	Three months ended<br> <br>September 30						Nine months ended<br> <br>September 30
($ thousands)	2025			2024			2025		2024
Realized gain (loss)	$	9,135		$	(6,087	)	$	17,857	$	(28,682	)
Unrealized (loss) gain		(18,940	)		36,012			13,248		10,114
Gain (loss) on risk management contracts	$	(9,805	)	$	29,925		$	31,105	$	(18,568	)

As at September 30, 2025, the following financial commodity risk management contracts were in place:

				Swap Price			Put Price		Call Price
Q4 2025	WTI Fixed Price Swap	C / bbl	9,450	$	100.85			-		-
Q4 2025	WCS Differential Swap	US / bbl	12,600	$	(13.50	)		-		-
Q1 2026	WTI Fixed Price Swap	C / bbl	2,549	$	96.95			-		-
Q1 2026	WTI Costless Collar	C / bbl	4,951		-		$	81.89	$	100.16
Q1 2026	WCS Differential Swap	US / bbl	14,000	$	(12.95	)		-		-
Q2 2026	WTI Costless Collar	C / bbl	5,027		-		$	78.50	$	83.84
Q2 2026	WTI Costless Collar	US / bbl	2,473		-		$	57.00	$	65.15
Q2 2026	WCS Differential Swap	US / bbl	14,000	$	(12.15	)		-		-
Q3 2026	WTI Costless Collar	US / bbl	7,500		-		$	57.34	$	66.26
Q3 2026	WCS Differential Swap	US / bbl	14,000	$	(12.80	)		-		-

All values are in US Dollars.

Greenfire Resources Ltd.	2025 Q3 Financial Statements	13

Subsequent to September 30, 2025, Greenfire entered into the following financial commodity risk management contracts:

	Instrument	Units		Put Price		Call Price
Q4 2026	WTI Costless Collar	US / bbl	2,527	$	55.00	$	62.95

All values are in US Dollars.

A 10% change in prices for the underlying commodities, related to the Company’s risk management contracts, would have a before-tax impact on net income (loss) of $27.7 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025. The Company’s commodity risk management contracts are held with large reputable financial institutions. As a result, the Company concluded that credit risk associated with its commodity risk management contracts is low.

Foreign Currency Risk Management

The Company is exposed to foreign currency risk on the principal and interest components of its US dollar denominated 2028 Notes (Note 4) and US Dollar denominated cash, cash equivalents, accounts receivables, accounts payables, and accrued liabilities and risk management contracts. As at September 30, 2025, Greenfire’s net foreign exchange risk exposure was a US$207.8 million liability (December 31, 2024 – US$218.4 million liability), and a 10% change in the foreign exchange rate would result in a $28.9 million change in the foreign exchange gain or loss (December 31, 2024 - $31.4 million).

Interest Rate Risk

Interest rate risk is the risk that future cash flows will fluctuate as a result of changes in market interest rates. The Company is exposed to interest rate risk related to borrowings drawn under the Senior Credit Facility, as the interest charged on the credit facility fluctuates with floating interest rates. Currently no amounts are drawn on the Senior Credit Facility. The 2028 Notes and letters of credit issued are subject to fixed interest rates and are not exposed to changes in interest rates.

Credit Risk

As at <br>($ thousands)	September 30 <br><br>2025		December 31 <br><br>2024
Trade receivables	$	28,694	$	47,412
Joint interest receivables		24,130		9,005
Accounts receivable	$	52,824	$	56,417

Credit risk is the risk of financial loss to the Company if a customer or counterparty to a financial instrument fails to meet its contractual obligations and arises principally from the Company’s accounts receivable. The Company is primarily exposed to credit risk from receivables associated with its oil sales. The Company manages its credit risk exposure by transacting with high-quality credit worthy counterparties and monitoring credit worthiness and/or credit ratings on an ongoing basis. Trade receivables from oil sales are generally collected on the 25th day of the month following production. Joint interest receivables are typically collected within one to three months of the invoice being issued. The Company has not previously experienced any material credit losses on the collection of accounts receivable.

At September 30, 2025, and December 31, 2024, the Company was exposed to concentration risk associated with its outstanding trade receivables and joint interest receivables balances. Of the Company’s trade receivables at September 30, 2025, 81% was receivable from a single company (December 31, 2024 - 99% receivable from a single company). At September 30, 2025, 100% of the Company’s joint interest receivables were held by a single company (December 31, 2024 - 100% by a single company). Maximum exposure to credit risk is represented by the carrying amount of accounts receivable on the balance sheet. Subsequent to September 30, 2025, the Company has received $5.0 million from its joint interest partner.

Liquidity Risk

Liquidity risk is the risk that the Company will not be able to meet its financial obligations as they become due. The Company’s objective in managing liquidity risk is to maintain sufficient available reserves to meet its financial obligations at any point in time. The Company expects to achieve this objective through prudent capital spending, an active commodity risk management program and through strategies such as continuously monitoring forecast and actual cash flows from operating, financing and investing activities, and available credit facilities. Management believes that future cash flows generated from these sources will be adequate to settle Greenfire’s financial liabilities.

Greenfire Resources Ltd.	2025 Q3 Financial Statements	14

The following table details the Company’s contractual maturities of its financial liabilities:

	September 30, 2025				December 31, 2024
As at <br>($ thousands)	Less than one year		Greater than one year		Less than one year		Greater than one year
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities	$	72,920	$	-	$	61,804	$	-
Risk management contracts		-		-		248		-
Lease liabilities^(1)^		5,177		4,756		7,669		2,726
Long-term debt^(2)^		10,719		319,867		260,252		83,600
Total financial liabilities	$	88,816	$	324,623	$	329,973	$	86,326
(1)	Amounts represent expected undiscounted cash payments and include lease agreements to which the Company<br>is committed but have not yet commenced.
---	---
(2)	Amounts represent undiscounted principal only and exclude interest and transaction costs.
---	---

12. SUPPLEMENTAL CASH FLOW INFORMATION

The following table reconciles the net changes in non-cash working capital and other liabilities from the consolidated balance sheet to the consolidated statement of cash flows:

	Three months ended<br> September 30						Nine months ended<br> September 30
($ thousands)	2025			2024			2025			2024
Change in accounts receivable	$	7,539		$	(20,447	)	$	3,593		$	(13,983	)
Change in inventories		(1,904	)		(2,600	)		(5,603	)		(2,257	)
Change in prepaid expenses and deposits		(635	)		(3,144	)		(1,940	)		(470	)
Change in accounts payable and accrued liabilities		20,840			(29,950	)		11,116			(7,025	)
		25,840			(56,141	)		7,166			(23,735	)
Other items impacting changes in non-cash working capital:
Withholding taxes on share units		8			(15	)		(973	)		(1,250	)
Unrealized foreign exchange gain related to working capital		34			(389	)		34			(244	)
		25,882			(56,545	)		6,227			(25,229	)
Related to operating activities		10,713			(60,979	)		(316	)		(33,548	)
Related to investing activities		15,169			4,434			6,543			8,319
Net change in non-cash working capital	$	25,882		$	(56,545	)	$	6,227		$	(25,229	)
Cash interest paid (included in operating activities)	$	(20,304	)	$	(22,192	)	$	(41,987	)	$	(49,027	)
Cash interest received (included in operating activities)	$	775		$	621		$	2,148		$	3,392

13. RELATED PARTY TRANSACTION

In 2025, Greenfire agreed to reimburse WEF for approximately $1.9 million of legal fees associated with the Change of Control Transaction (see Note 1) including its adoption of a shareholder rights plan and related hearings before the Alberta Securities Commission, in which WEF was successful. The reimbursement was reviewed and approved by the independent members of the Company’s Board of Directors.

Greenfire Resources Ltd.	2025 Q3 Financial Statements	15

Corporate Information

Directors
Adam Waterous^(1)(4)^	Solicitors
Brian Heald^(2)^
Tom Ebbern^(3)^	Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP
Andrew Kim	3500, 855 – 2^nd^ Street S.W.
David Roosth	Bankers Hall East Tower
Henry Hager	Calgary Alberta, Canada
David Knight-Legg	T2P 4J8
(1) Executive Chair of the Board of Directors	Scale LLP
(2) Chair of the Audit Committee	86147, 750 – North Saint Paul Street Ste 250
(3) Chair of the Reserves Committee and Lead Director	Dallas, Texas, United States
(4) Chair of the Compensation and Governance Committee	75201
Officers	Bankers
Colin Germaniuk, P.Eng	Bank of Montreal
President	595 – 8^th^ Avenue SW
	Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Travis Belak, CPA, CA	T2P 1G1
Vice President, Finance
Jonathan Kanderka, P.Eng	Auditor
Chief Operating Officer
	Deloitte LLP
	700, 850 – 2^nd^ Street S.W.
Charles R. Kraus	Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Corporate Secretary	T2P 0R8
Head Office	Reserve Engineers
1900, 205 – 5^th^ Avenue SW	McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd.
Calgary, Alberta, Canada	2200, 255 – 5^th^ Avenue S.W.
T2P 2V7	Calgary, Alberta, Canada
www.greenfireres.com	T2P 3G6
NYSE: GFR
TSX: GFR
Greenfire Resources Ltd.	2025 Q3 Financial Statements	16
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Exhibit 99.2

MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION & ANALYSIS

For the three and nine month periods ended September 30, 2025

Greenfire Resources Ltd.

MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS

This Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) of the financial condition and results of operations of Greenfire Resources Ltd. (“Greenfire” or the “Company”) is dated November 3, 2025, which is the date this MD&A was approved by the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board of Directors”), and should be read in conjunction with the Company’s unaudited condensed interim consolidated financial statements (“financial statements”) and notes thereto for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 and 2024, and the audited consolidated financial statements for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023 (“annual financial statements”) and the related MD&A. The financial statements, including the comparative figures, were prepared in accordance with IAS 34 “Interim Financial Reporting” as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board.

Additional information about Greenfire has been filed with Canadian securities regulatory authorities and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) and is available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca, including Greenfire’s Annual Information Form, dated March 17, 2025 (the “2024 AIF”), which is also filed with the SEC under cover of Form 40-F. Information contained in or otherwise accessible through our website, even if referred to in this MD&A, does not constitute part of this MD&A and is not incorporated by reference into this MD&A.

This MD&A contains forward-looking information based on the Company’s current expectations and projections. For information on the material factors and assumptions underlying such forward-looking information, refer to the “Forward Looking Statements” section of this MD&A. Refer to the “Abbreviations” section of this MD&A for information regarding abbreviations used in this MD&A.

This MD&A contains non-GAAP financial measures, and non-GAAP financial ratios (the “Non-GAAP Measures”). Non-GAAP measures include adjusted EBITDA, operating netback, operating netback excluding realized gain (loss) on risk management contracts, effective royalty rate, adjusted funds flow, adjusted free cash flow, and adjusted working capital surplus (deficit). When non-GAAP measures are expressed on a per barrel basis, they are non-GAAP ratios. This MD&A also contains supplementary financial measures and ratios, derived from IFRS^®^Accounting Standards. Supplementary financial measures include gross profit (loss), capital expenditures, and depletion. When supplementary financial measures are expressed on a per barrel basis, they are supplementary financial ratios. For additional information regarding these non-GAAP and supplementary financial measures refer to the “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” section of this MD&A.

All financial information included in this MD&A is presented in Canadian dollars (“CAD”), unless otherwise noted. Certain dollar amounts have been rounded to the nearest million dollars or thousand dollars, as noted, and tables may not add due to rounding. Unless indicated otherwise, production volumes and per unit statistics are presented throughout this MD&A on a “gross” basis as determined in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 – Standards for Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities, which is the Company’s gross working interest basis before deduction of royalties. Dollar per barrel ($/bbl) figures presented throughout this MD&A are based upon sold bitumen barrels unless otherwise noted. The Company monitors and reviews financial information on a per barrel basis for comparability to prior period results and to analyze the Company’s competitiveness relative to its peer group.

DESCRIPTION OF BUSINESS

Greenfire is an oil sands producer focused on the development of its long-life and low decline thermal oil assets in the Athabasca region of Alberta, Canada, with its registered offices in Calgary, Alberta. Greenfire plans to leverage its large resource base and significant infrastructure in place to drive meaningful, capital-efficient production growth. As part of the Company’s commitment to operational excellence, safe and reliable operations remain a top priority for Greenfire.

Greenfire’s common shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “GFR”.

Throughout 2024, certain limited partnerships comprising Waterous Energy Fund and its affiliates (collectively, “WEF”), through a series of transactions acquired a total of 39,300,278 common shares and 2,654,179 common share purchase warrants of Greenfire. The final transaction in this series, which occurred on December 23, 2024 (the “Change of Control Transaction”), which resulted in WEF holding 56.5% of the Company’s outstanding common shares. At September 30, 2025, approximately 55.9% of the Company’s common shares were owned by WEF.

GREENFIRE’S ASSETS AND STRATEGY

Greenfire’s principal assets are the Hangingstone Facilities. The Hangingstone Facilities consist of two Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (“SAGD”) oil production facilities: the Expansion Asset and the Demo Asset. Located approximately 50 kilometers south of Fort McMurray, Alberta, these facilities are operated by Greenfire, with the Company holding a 75% working interest in the Expansion Asset and a 100% working interest in the Demo Asset.

The Company’s strategic objective is to manage and enhance its asset portfolio to maximize long-term net asset value per share for Greenfire shareholders. This goal is expected to be achieved by investing in proven, industry-standard SAGD optimization techniques at the Hangingstone Facilities, which are designed to increase production levels to leverage existing spare facility capacities, while maintaining disciplined control over operating cost structures.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 2 |

| --- | --- |

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Refinancing Initiatives

The Company is pleased to announce the following refinancing initiatives (the “Refinancing Initiatives”). Greenfire has secured an upsized $275.0 million revolving credit facility with a syndicate of Canadian banks (the “Senior Credit Facility”), which will be subject to periodic borrowing base reviews. Closing of the Senior Credit Facility is contingent on, among other things, the Company redeeming the outstanding US$237.5 million aggregate principal amount of senior secured notes due 2028 (the “2028 Notes”). To fund the redemption of the 2028 Notes, the Company intends to undertake a $300.0 million rights offering as separately announced on November 3, 2025.

Drilling Operations

Greenfire anticipates commencing drilling operations at its inaugural SAGD well pad, Pad 7, in November 2025. Pad 7 comprises 13 well pairs and is located northeast of the Expansion Asset’s Central Processing Facility, adjacent to existing production. First oil from Pad 7 is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2026.

In addition to Pad 7, the Company plans to drill new wells from existing SAGD pads at the Expansion Asset in 2026, including three infill wells from Pad 6 and three well pairs from Pad 5. First oil from these wells is not expected until 2027.

Greenfire also expects to incur some long-lead capital spending related to surface facilities for Greenfire’s next major SAGD pad, Pad 8 in 2026. Pad 8 is currently not expected to commence drilling until the first half of 2027.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Greenfire intends to pursue redevelopment opportunities at two existing shut-in well pairs, originally drilled at the Demo Asset in 2010, with incremental production expected in the first half of 2026. Beyond this redevelopment program, Greenfire’s primary focus at the Demo Asset remains base production optimizations to sustain current production rates.

Production and Steam Generation Updates

Greenfire’s October 2025 consolidated production was approximately 15,500 bbls/d. The Company has successfully restored the previously disclosed failed steam generator at the Expansion Asset ahead of schedule and has elected to proactively refurbish a second unit, with full steam capacity expected by year-end 2025. With one of four steam generators currently offline, production will remain impacted by approximately 1,500 bbls/d at the Expansion Asset until year-end 2025.

Regulatory Engagement and Installationof Sulphur Removal Facilities

Greenfire continues to engage with the Alberta Energy Regulator (the “AER”) regarding previously disclosed sulphur dioxide emissions that exceed regulatory limits at the Expansion Asset. Greenfire has commenced the installation of sulphur removal facilities at the Expansion Asset, with commissioning anticipated in November 2025, which the Company expects will restore compliance with emissions standards.

2026 GUIDANCE

Greenfire’s 2026 guidance is outlined below:

	2026
	Guidance
Annual production average	15,500 – 16,500 (bbls/d)
Capital expenditures	$180.0 million

Greenfire’s board of directors has approved a 2026 capital budget which primarily allocates capital expenditures to the Expansion Asset and reflects the Company’s focus on advancing growth initiatives, with planned production increases anticipated to commence in the fourth quarter of 2026.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 3 |

| --- | --- |

FINANCIAL & OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS

						Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
(thousands, unless otherwise noted)			2024			2025			2024
Bitumen production (bbls/d)	15,757			19,125			16,327			19,262
Oil sales	141,137			193,643			469,316			614,077
Oil sales (/bbl)	73.24			83.01			76.23			82.56
Gross profit(1)	14,526			76,772			104,747			123,285
Operating netback(2)	53,328			57,833			152,837			165,354
Operating netback (/bbl)(2)	37.60			34.00			34.67			31.66
Net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss)	(8,751	)		58,916			56,142			42,849
Adjusted EBITDA(2)	48,286			53,388			133,875			151,157
Cash provided by (used in) operating activities	48,764			(17,875	)		101,169			84,352
Adjusted funds flow(2)	38,051			44,104			103,338			118,900
Cash used in investing activities	(2,727	)		(16,741	)		(48,492	)		(70,314	)
Capital expenditures(1)	17,896			21,175			55,035			78,633

All values are in US Dollars.

(1)	Supplementary financial measure. Refer to the “Supplementary Financial Measures” section of<br>this MD&A.
(2)	Non-GAAP measures without a standardized meaning under IFRS Accounting Standards. Refer to the “Non-GAAP<br>and Other Financial Measures” section in this MD&A.

Liquidity and Balance Sheet

	September 30,		December 31,
($ thousands)	2025		2024
Cash and cash equivalents		114,656		67,419
Available credit facilities^(1)^		50,000		50,000
Face value of long-term debt^(2)^		330,586		343,852
(1)	As at September 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024, the Company had<br>$50.0 million of available credit under the Senior Credit Facility, of which $nil was drawn.
---	---
(2)	As at September 30, 2025, the 2028 Notes (as defined below) had<br>a face value of US$237.5 million (December 31, 2024 – US$239.0 million) and were converted into Canadian dollars as at period end<br>exchange rates (see “Capital Resources and Liquidity - Long Term Debt”).

PRODUCTION AND COMMODITY PRICING

Bitumen Production and Sales

	Three months ended<br><br> September 30,				Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
(Average barrels per day, unless otherwise noted)	2025		2024		2025		2024
Bitumen production^(1)^		15,757		19,125		16,327		19,262
Bitumen sales – Undiluted		952		935		1,284		882
Bitumen sales – Blended with diluent		14,465		17,554		14,864		18,181
Bitumen sales^(1)^		15,417		18,489		16,148		19,063
Purchased diluent - Blended into sales volumes		5,528		6,867		6,403		8,084
Sales volumes		20,945		25,356		22,551		27,147
(1)	Bitumen sales differ from bitumen production due to inventory<br>fluctuations.
---	---

Greenfire’s oil sales include both bitumen blended with diluent, which is transported by pipeline, and a smaller portion of undiluted bitumen, which is trucked to a sales point.

Bitumen production decreased 18% (or 3,368 bbl/d) and 15% (or 2,935 bbl/d) for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, respectively, when compared to the same periods of 2024. These decreases are attributable to the Expansion Asset operating at reduced capacity due to the unplanned loss of a steam generation unit in the first quarter of 2025 combined with natural field declines. The Company expects to restore full capacity in the fourth quarter of 2025. Production was also affected by the timing of Greenfire’s annual planned maintenance program at the Demo Asset, which was successfully completed in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 4 |

| --- | --- |

Commodity Prices

						Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
Benchmark Pricing			2024			2025			2024
US/bbl
WTI(1)	64.93			75.09			66.70			77.54
WCS differential to WTI	(10.39	)		(13.55	)		(11.11	)		(15.49	)
WCS Hardisty	54.54			61.54			55.59			62.05
Edmonton Condensate (C5+)	63.25			71.38			65.68			73.96
C/bbl
WTI(2)	89.43			102.39			93.29			105.48
WCS differential to WTI	(14.31	)		(18.48	)		(15.54	)		(21.07	)
WCS Hardisty(2)	75.12			83.92			77.75			84.41
Edmonton Condensate (C5+)(2)	87.12			97.33			91.87			100.61
Other
AECO 5A (C/GJ)	0.60			0.65			1.42			1.38
Alberta power pool (C/MWh)	51.53			55.23			44.10			66.46
Average FX Rate (C/US)(3)	1.3774			1.3636			1.3987			1.3603

All values are in US Dollars.

(1)	As per NYMEX oil futures contract.
(2)	Converted from above using the average exchange rate for the specific period.
(3)	Average exchange rates for the specified periods.

WCS Hardisty

WCS is a blend of heavy crude oils that serves as the pricing benchmark for Canadian heavy oil at Hardisty, Alberta. Greenfire’s bitumen sales revenue is directly correlated to WCS pricing. WCS is priced at a discount to WTI, with this difference referred to as the WCS differential. The WCS differential is subject to variability driven by factors such as production volumes, egress capacity, scheduled infrastructure maintenance, refinery demand, and other market conditions in Western Canada.

Condensate

The Company uses condensate, sourced from the Edmonton area, as a blending diluent to facilitate the transportation of its produced bitumen. The price of condensate has historically been correlated to the price of WTI.

FINANCIAL RESULTS

Oil Sales

				Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
( thousands, unless otherwise noted)		2024		2025		2024
Oil Sales	141,137		193,643		469,316		614,077
- (/bbl)(1)	73.24		83.01		76.23		82.56

All values are in US Dollars.

(1)	Based on sales volumes.

Oil sales decreased 27% (or $52.5 million) for the three months ended September 30, 2025, to $141.1 million compared to $193.6 million in the same quarter of 2024. Oil sales decreased 24% (or $144.8 million) for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, to $469.3 million compared to $614.1 million for the same period in 2024. The decrease in both periods reflects a 17% decline in sales volumes and lower Canadian-denominated WCS pricing.

Royalties
						Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
( thousands, unless otherwise noted)			2024			2025			2024
Royalties	4,538			8,698			15,294			24,932
- (/bbl)	3.20			5.11			3.47			4.77
Effective royalty rate(1)	5.50	%		7.52	%		5.89	%		7.36	%

All values are in US Dollars.

(1)	Non-GAAP measures without a standardized meaning under IFRS Accounting<br>Standards. Refer to the “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” section in this MD&A.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 5 |

| --- | --- |

Royalties consist of crown royalties on bitumen production paid to the Province of Alberta, based on government prescribed royalty rates. Royalty rates are based on and adjust with the Canadian dollar equivalent WTI benchmark price.

The effective royalty rate was 5.50% and 5.89% during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, respectively, compared to 7.52% and 7.36% for the same respective periods in 2024. The lower effective royalty rate reflects the decline in the Canadian denominated WTI benchmark price.

Realized and UnrealizedGain (Loss) on Risk Management Contracts

	Three months ended<br><br> September 30,						Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
($ thousands)	2025			2024			2025		2024
Realized gain (loss)		9,135			(6,087	)		17,857		(28,682	)
Unrealized gain (loss)		(18,940	)		36,012			13,248		10,114
Risk management contracts gains (losses)		(9,805	)		29,925			31,105		(18,568	)

Greenfire uses risk management to protect its cash flows against volatility in commodity prices. Financial contracts settled in the period result in realized gains or losses based on the market price compared to the contract price and the notional volume outstanding.

During the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, Greenfire recognized realized gains of $9.1 million and $17.9 million, respectively, compared to realized losses of $6.1 million and $28.7 million for the same periods of 2024. Realized gains occur when the average price of the hedged commodity settles below the contract price, while realized losses occur in the opposite scenario. Generally, realized gains and losses on risk management contracts resulting from fluctuations in energy prices are largely offset by an inverse gain or loss on physical sales or purchases.

Changes in the fair value of unsettled financial contracts are reported as unrealized gains or losses as the forward markets for commodities fluctuate. When adjusting the risk management contracts to their fair value on September 30, 2025, Greenfire recognized a non-cash unrealized loss of $18.9 million compared to an unrealized gain of $36.0 million for the same quarter of 2024. The unrealized gain on risk management contracts for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 was $13.2 million compared to $10.1 million for the same period of 2024.

Diluent Expense

				Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
( thousands, unless otherwise noted)		2024		2025		2024
Diluent expense	49,011		67,889		179,295		244,116
- (/bbl)(1)	8.29		9.08		10.44		11.73

All values are in US Dollars.

(1)	Represents the differential cost of diluent to diluted bitumen. Calculation is based on oil sales less<br>diluent expense, over bitumen sales volume (bbls), less oil sales per barrel.

To facilitate the transportation of bitumen, the Company uses condensate as a blending diluent. Greenfire’s diluent expense includes the cost of condensate and its associated transportation costs. Diluent expense per barrel represents the cost difference between purchased condensate and the value recovered from selling the same volume of diluted bitumen.

Diluent expense per bbl decreased by 9% (or $0.79/bbl) to $8.29/bbl for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $9.08/bbl for the same period in 2024. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, diluent expense per bbl declined by 11% (or $1.29/bbl) to $10.44/bbl compared to $11.73/bbl for the same period in 2024. These decreases reflect a higher proportion of undiluted bitumen sales within total sales and a lower price differential between WCS and Edmonton Condensate (C5+) (see “Production and Commodity Pricing – Commodity Prices” section of this MD&A).

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 6 |

| --- | --- |

Transportation and Marketing Expense

				Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
( thousands, unless otherwise noted)		2024		2025		2024
Marketing fees	1,852		2,403		7,868		7,598
Oil transportation expense	9,607		10,078		30,191		31,395
Transportation and marketing	11,459		12,481		38,059		38,993
Marketing fees (/bbl)	1.31		1.42		1.78		1.46
Oil transportation expense (/bbl)	6.77		5.92		6.85		6.01
Transportation and marketing (/bbl)	8.08		7.34		8.63		7.47

All values are in US Dollars.

Transportation expenses include the costs to move bitumen between the Hangingstone assets to their respective sales points. Marketing fees relate to exclusive marketing contracts with a reputable international energy marketing company. These exclusive marketing contracts are expected to expire between April 2026 and October 2028.

Transportation and marketing expense per bbl increased 10% (or $0.74/bbl) for the three months ended September 30, 2025, to $8.08/bbl compared to $7.34/bbl in the same quarter of 2024. Transportation and marketing expense per bbl increased by 16% (or $1.16/bbl) for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, to $8.63/bbl compared to $7.47/bbl for the nine months ended September 30, 2024.

These increases reflect a larger share of corporate production from the Demo Asset, which is subject to higher marketing fees than the Expansion Asset, as well as higher long-haul trucking costs associated with selling a greater proportion of bitumen on an undiluted basis.

Operating Expenses

				Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
( thousands, unless otherwise noted)		2024		2025		2024
Operating expenses – energy	5,242		5,860		21,382		25,304
Operating expenses – non-energy	26,694		34,795		80,306		86,696
Operating expenses	31,936		40,655		101,688		112,000
Operating expenses – energy (/bbl)	3.70		3.45		4.85		4.84
Operating expenses – non-energy (/bbl)	18.82		20.45		18.22		16.60
Operating expenses (/bbl)	22.52		23.90		23.07		21.44

All values are in US Dollars.

Operating expenses include both energy operating expenses and non-energy operating expenses.

●	Energy operating expenses include the cost of<br>natural gas for steam generation and non-condensable gas (“NCG”) co-injection and electricity for facility operations. NCG<br>is used to manage reservoir pressure and improve recovery.
●	Non-energy operating expenses relate to production-related<br>operating activities, including staff, contractors and associated travel and camp costs, chemicals, carbon taxes, insurance, equipment<br>rentals, maintenance and site administration, among other costs.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 7 |

| --- | --- |

For the three months ended September 30, 2025, operating expenses per bbl decreased 6% (or $1.38/bbl) to $22.52/bbl compared to $23.90/bbl in the same quarter of 2024. Energy operating costs per bbl increased 7% (or $0.25/bbl) to $3.70/bbl from $3.45/bbl over this same period. This increase was driven by lower production volumes, which spread fixed energy costs over fewer barrels, partially offset by lower natural gas and electricity benchmark pricing. Non-energy operating costs decreased by 8% (or $1.63/bbl) to $18.82/bbl over this period, primarily due to one-time costs incurred in the third quarter of 2024 related to the replacement of downhole temperature sensors. This decrease was partially offset by the completion of the annual maintenance turnaround at the Demo asset in the third quarter of 2025, compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, resulting in additional costs in the current period.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, operating expenses per bbl increased 8% (or $1.63/bbl) to $23.07/bbl compared to $21.44/bbl in the same period of 2024. Energy operating costs per bbl were consistent with the prior period. Non-energy operating costs increased by 10% (or $1.62/bbl) to $18.22/bbl from $16.60/bbl in this same period, reflecting lower production volumes, which resulted in fixed costs being allocated over fewer barrels.

Depletion and Depreciation Expenses

				Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
( thousands, unless otherwise noted)		2024		2025		2024
Depletion	19,862		17,073		61,338		52,183
Depreciation	50		17		159		63
Depletion and depreciation expense	19,912		17,090		61,497		52,246
- (/bbl)	14.04		10.05		13.95		10.00

All values are in US Dollars.

For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, depletion and depreciation increased by 17% (or $2.8 million) and 18% (or $9.3 million), respectively, compared to the same periods in 2024. The increase in both periods was driven by the inclusion of future development costs related to the 72% increase in proved and probable reserves as outlined in the year-end 2024 reserve report and disclosed in the Company’s 2024 AIF.

Operating Netback^(1)^

					Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
( thousands, unless otherwise noted)		2024			2025			2024
Gross profit(2)	14,526		76,772			104,747			123,285
Depletion	19,862		17,073			61,338			52,183
Loss (gain) on risk management contracts	9,805		(29,925	)		(31,105	)		18,568
Operating netback, excluding realized gain (loss) on risk management contracts(1)	44,193		63,920			134,980			194,036
Realized gain (loss) on risk management contracts	9,135		(6,087	)		17,857			(28,682	)
Operating netback(1)	53,328		57,833			152,837			165,354
Operating netback, excluding realized gain (loss) on risk management contracts (/bbl)(1)	31.16		37.58			30.62			37.15
Operating netback (/bbl)(1)	37.60		34.00			34.67			31.66

All values are in US Dollars.

(1)	Non-GAAP measures without a standardized meaning under IFRS Accounting Standards. Refer to the “Non-GAAP<br>and Other Financial Measures” section in this MD&A.
(2)	Supplementary financial measure. Refer to the “Supplementary Financial Measures” section of<br>this MD&A.

Operating netback per bbl increased 11% (or $3.60/bbl) for the three months ended September 30, 2025, to $37.60/bbl compared to $34.00/bbl in the same quarter of 2024. The increase primarily reflects higher realized gains on risk management contracts and lower operating expenses per barrel, partially offset by reduced oil sales.

Operating netback per bbl increased 10% (or $3.01/bbl) for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, to $34.67/bbl compared to $31.66/bbl in the same period of 2024. The increase primarily reflects higher realized gains on risk management contracts, partially offset by lower oil sales.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 8 |

| --- | --- |

Gross Profit (Loss)^(1)^

						Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
( thousands, unless otherwise noted)			2024			2025			2024
Oil sales, net of royalties	136,599			184,945			454,022			589,145
Gain (loss) on risk management contracts	(9,805	)		29,925			31,105			(18,568	)
	126,794			214,870			485,127			570,577
Diluent expense	(49,011	)		(67,889	)		(179,295	)		(244,116	)
Transportation and marketing	(11,459	)		(12,481	)		(38,059	)		(38,993	)
Operating expenses	(31,936	)		(40,655	)		(101,688	)		(112,000	)
Depletion	(19,862	)		(17,073	)		(61,338	)		(52,183	)
Gross profit(1)	14,526			76,772			104,747			123,285
Gross profit (/bbl)(1)	10.24			45.13			23.76			23.60

All values are in US Dollars.

(1)	Supplementary financial measure or ratio. Refer to the “Supplementary<br>Financial Measures” section of this MD&A.

Gross profit decreased by $62.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, to $14.5 million compared to $76.8 million in the third quarter of 2024. The decrease relates to lower oil sales and losses on risk management contracts.

Gross profit decreased by $18.6 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, to $104.7 million compared to $123.3 million in the same period of 2024. The decrease primarily relates to lower oil sales, offset by gains on risk management contracts.

General & Administrative Expenses (“G&A”)

				Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
( thousands, unless otherwise noted)		2024		2025		2024
General and administrative expenses	4,676		4,815		19,106		13,433
- (/bbl)	3.30		2.83		4.33		2.57

All values are in US Dollars.

G&A expenses include head office and corporate costs such as salaries and employee benefits, legal fees, engineering services, audit and tax-related fees, and may also include expenses related to corporate strategic initiatives if any, among other costs.

For the three months ended September 30, 2025, G&A expenses decreased by 3% (or $0.1 million) to $4.7 million compared to $4.8 million for the same period of 2024. The reduction is due to $1.0 million of non-recurring costs in the third quarter of 2024 associated with the Company’s adoption of a shareholder rights plan, which was mostly offset by higher employee-related costs.

During the nine months ended September 30, 2025, G&A expenses increased by 42% (or $5.7 million) to $19.1 million compared to $13.4 million for the same period of 2024. The nine months ended September 30, 2025, includes a one-time expense of $1.9 million associated with challenging the Company’s adoption of a shareholder rights plan, in which WEF was successful. Refer to the “Related Party Transaction” section in this MD&A for further information. The remaining increase is attributable to the introduction of a new employee incentive structure consisting solely of an enhanced annual cash bonus, which replaced the prior omnibus share incentive plan in January 2025. Refer to the “Stock-Based Compensation” section of this MD&A for further information.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 9 |

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Stock-Based Compensation

				Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
( thousands, unless otherwise noted)		2024		2025		2024
Stock-based compensation	1,186		2,365		2,836		5,785
- (/bbl)	0.84		1.39		0.64		1.11

All values are in US Dollars.

The stock-based compensation expense relates to share awards issued under the omnibus share incentive plan (the “Incentive Plan”) adopted in February 2024. The Company’s Board of Directors suspended further grants under the Incentive Plan as the Company’s incentive compensation plan will comprise solely of an annual cash bonus. The remaining awards will be expensed over their vesting periods.

Financing and Interest Expenses

	Three months ended<br><br> September 30,				Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
($ thousands)	2025		2024		2025		2024
Interest expense		10,523		10,506		31,671		36,111
Accretion		3,478		4,883		7,734		12,493
Financing and interest expenses		14,001		15,389		39,405		48,604

Interest expense includes cash-settled interest on the 2028 Notes, Senior Credit Facility, EDC Facility, and other related charges. Accretion includes the amortization of debt issuance costs, accrual of redemption premiums on the 2028 Notes, accretion of lease liability and accretion of decommissioning liabilities.

For the three months ended September 30, 2025, financing and interest expenses decreased by 9% (or $1.4 million) to $14.0 million compared to $15.4 million for the same quarter of 2024. During the nine months ended September 30, 2025, interest and finance expenses decreased by 19% (or $9.2 million) to $39.4 million compared to $48.6 million for the same period of 2024. These decreases reflect the impact of the $84.3 million (US$61.0 million) redemption of the 2028 Notes in July 2024.

Refer to the “Capital Resources and Liquidity” section in this MD&A for more details of Greenfire’s long-term debt, revolving credit facility and EDC Facility.

Exploration Expenses

The Company’s exploration expenses primarily consist of escalating mineral lease rentals on undeveloped lands. During the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, exploration expenses were $0.4 million and $1.7 million, respectively, compared to $0.6 million and $1.8 million for the same respective periods in 2024.

Other Income

Other income primarily consists of interest earned on the Company’s cash and cash equivalent balances. The Company’s other income for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $1.1 million and $2.4 million, respectively, compared to other income of $0.7 million and $3.4 million, respectively in 2024.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 10 |

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Foreign Exchange Loss (Gain)

The Company’s foreign exchange loss (gain) is driven by fluctuations in the US dollar to Canadian dollar exchange rate and is primarily related to the principal and interest components of the Company’s US dollar denominated debt.

In the three months ended September 30, 2025, Greenfire recorded foreign exchange loss of $5.3 million, compared to a gain of $4.3 million for the comparative period in 2024. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, Greenfire recorded foreign exchange gain of $8.9 million, compared to a loss of $7.5 million for the comparative period in 2024. These variances were primarily driven by the revaluation of the US$-denominated 2028 Notes, reflecting the impact of fluctuations in the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar.

Loss (Gain) on Revaluation of Warrants

The outstanding warrants entitle each warrant holder to purchase one common share of Greenfire and expire on September 19, 2028. The warrants contain a cashless exercise feature, permitting settlement without the cash payment of the exercise price via the issuance of a net, number of common shares. This cashless exercise feature results in the warrants being treated as a financial liability and necessitates their remeasurement at each reporting period.

When revaluing the warrants to fair value, for the three months ended September 30, 2025 the Company recognized a gain of $1.1 million, compared to a gain of $0.4 million for the same period of 2024. In the nine months ended September 30, 2025 the Company recognized a gain of $15.0 million compared to a loss of $6.7 million in the comparative period. The 2025 gains reflect declines in the Company’s common share price relative to their opening price in the respective periods.

Taxes

Deferred income tax assets are recognized to the extent that the realization of the related tax benefit through future taxable profits is probable based on current tax pools and estimated future income. For the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, Greenfire recognized a deferred income tax recovery of $0.1 million and a deferred income expense of $11.7 million, respectively.

Net Income (Loss) and Comprehensive Income(Loss) and Adjusted EBITDA^(1)^

						Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
( thousands)			2024			2025			2024
Net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss)	(8,751	)		58,916			56,142			42,849
Add (deduct):
Income tax expense (recovery)	(100	)		-			11,749			-
Unrealized (gain) loss on risk management contracts	18,940			(36,012	)		(13,248	)		(10,114	)
Stock-based compensation	1,186			2,365			2,836			5,785
Financing and interest	14,001			15,389			39,405			48,604
Depletion and depreciation	19,912			17,090			61,497			52,246
Non-recurring transactions(2)	-			1,000			1,853			1,000
Loss (gain) on revaluation of warrants	(1,123	)		(389	)		(14,971	)		6,673
Foreign exchange loss (gain)	5,290			(4,291	)		(8,946	)		7,496
Other income	(1,069	)		(680	)		(2,442	)		(3,382	)
Adjusted EBITDA(1)	48,286			53,388			133,875			151,157
Adjusted EBITDA(1) (/bbl)	34.04			31.39			30.37			28.94

All values are in US Dollars.

(1)	Non-GAAP measures without a standardized meaning under IFRS Accounting Standards. Refer to the “Non-GAAP<br>and Other Financial Measures” section in this MD&A.
(2)	See “Related Party Transaction” section in this MD&A for further information.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 11 |

| --- | --- |

For the three months ended September 30, 2025, Greenfire experienced a net loss of $8.8 million compared to a net income of $58.9 million in the same quarter of 2024, a decrease of $67.7 million. This decrease was primarily attributable to unrealized losses on risk management contracts, lower Adjusted EBITDA generation, and foreign exchange losses.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, Greenfire generated net income of $56.1 million, compared to a net income of $42.8 million in the same period in 2024, an increase of $13.3 million. This increase was driven by foreign exchange gains, and gains on the revaluation of warrants, partially offset by a decrease in Adjusted EBITDA.

Adjusted EBITDA decreased 10% (or $5.1 million) for the three months ended September 30, 2025, to $48.3 million compared to $53.4 million for the same quarter of 2024. Adjusted EBITDA decreased 11% (or $17.3 million) for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, to $133.9 million compared to $151.2 million for the same period of 2024. The decrease in both periods was driven by lower oil sales, resulting from a decrease in sales volume and lower realized pricing.

Net Income (Loss) per Share

	Three months ended<br><br> September 30,					Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
($ per share, unless otherwise noted)	2025			2024		2025		2024
Net income (loss) per share - basic	$	(0.12	)	$	0.85	$	0.80	$	0.62
Net income (loss) per share - diluted	$	(0.12	)	$	0.82	$	0.80	$	0.60
Weighted average common shares outstanding – basic (‘000)		70,253			69,334		70,083		69,061
Weighted average common shares outstanding – diluted (‘000)		70,253			72,238		70,178		71,560

For the three months ended September 30, 2025, basic net income (loss) per share decreased by $0.97/ share, compared to the same period in 2024. In the nine months ended September 30, 2025, basic net income per share increased by $0.18/ share, in relation to its comparative period.

For the three months ended September 30, 2025, diluted net income (loss) per share decreased by $0.94/ share, compared to the same period in 2024. In the nine months ended September 30, 2025, diluted net income per share increased by $0.20/ share, in relation to its comparative period.

The changes reflect variations in net income (loss) for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to the same periods in 2024.

RISK MANAGEMENT

The Company’s activities expose it to a variety of financial risks that arise as a result of its exploration, development, production and financing activities. These risks include credit risk, liquidity risk and market risk. Market risk is the risk that changes in market conditions, such as commodity prices, foreign exchange rates and interest rates, will affect the Company’s cash flow, income, or the value of its financial instruments.

Commodity Price Risk

The Company is exposed to commodity price risk on its oil sales, diluent expense and energy operating costs due to fluctuations in market prices. The Company continues to execute a risk management program that is primarily designed to reduce the volatility of revenue and cash flow, generate sufficient cash flows to service debt obligations and fund the Company’s operations. The Company’s risk management liabilities may consist of hedging instruments such as fixed price swaps and option structures, including costless collars on WTI, WCS differential, condensate differential, natural gas and electricity swaps. The Company does not use financial derivatives for speculative purposes.

The Company’s obligations under its 2028 Notes (as outlined in the “Capital Resources and Liquidity – Long Term Debt” section of this MD&A), includes a requirement to implement and maintain a twelve month forward commodity price risk management program encompassing not less than 50% of the hydrocarbon output under the proved developed producing (“PDP”) reserves forecast in the Company’s most recent reserves report, as determined by a qualified and independent reserves evaluator.

The Company’s risk management program does not involve margin accounts that require posting of margin, including in scenarios of increased volatility in underlying commodity prices. Financial risk management contracts are measured at fair value, with gains and losses on re-measurement included in the consolidated statements of comprehensive income (loss) in the period in which they arise.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 12 |

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Outstanding Financial Risk Management Contracts at September 30,2025

	Instrument	Units		Swap Price			Put Price		Call Price
Q4 2025	WTI Fixed Price Swap	C / bbl	9,450	$	100.85			-		-
Q4 2025	WCS Differential Swap	US / bbl	12,600	$	(13.50	)		-		-
Q1 2026	WTI Fixed Price Swap	C / bbl	2,549	$	96.95			-		-
Q1 2026	WTI Costless Collar	C / bbl	4,951		-		$	81.89	$	100.16
Q1 2026	WCS Differential Swap	US / bbl	14,000	$	(12.95	)		-		-
Q2 2026	WTI Costless Collar	C / bbl	5,027		-		$	78.50	$	83.84
Q2 2026	WTI Costless Collar	US / bbl	2,473		-		$	57.00	$	65.15
Q2 2026	WCS Differential Swap	US / bbl	14,000	$	(12.15	)		-		-
Q3 2026	WTI Costless Collar	US / bbl	7,500		-		$	57.34	$	66.26
Q3 2026	WCS Differential Swap	US / bbl	14,000	$	(12.80	)		-		-

All values are in US Dollars.

Financial Risk Management Contracts Subsequent to September 30,2025

Subsequent to September 30, 2025 Greenfire entered into the following financial commodity risk management contracts:

	Instrument	Units		Put Price		Call Price
Q4 2026	WTI Costless Collar	US / bbl	2,527	$	55.00	$	62.95

All values are in US Dollars.

Foreign Exchange Risk

The Company is exposed to foreign currency risk on the principal and interest components of its US dollar denominated 2028 Notes and US Dollar denominated cash, cash equivalents, accounts receivables, accounts payables and accrued liabilities and risk management contracts. As at September 30, 2025, Greenfire’s net foreign exchange risk exposure was US$207.8 million liability and a 10% change in the foreign exchange rate would result in a $28.9 million change in the foreign exchange gain or loss.

Interest Rate Risk

Interest rate risk is the risk that future cash flows will fluctuate as a result of changes in market interest rates. The Company is exposed to interest rate risk related to borrowings drawn under the Senior Credit Facility, as the interest charged on the Senior Credit Facility fluctuates with floating interest rates. Currently no amounts are drawn on the Senior Credit Facility. The 2028 Notes and letters of credit issued are subject to fixed interest rates and are not exposed to changes in interest rates.

Credit Risk

The Company manages its credit risk exposure by transacting with high-quality credit worthy counterparties and monitoring credit worthiness and/or credit ratings on an ongoing basis. Trade receivables from oil sales are generally collected on the 25th day of the month following production. Joint interest receivables are typically collected within one to three months of the invoice being issued.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 13 |

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Liquidity Risk

CAPITAL RESOURCES AND LIQUIDITY

The Company’s capital management objective is to maintain financial flexibility and sufficient liquidity to execute on planned capital programs, while meeting short and long-term commitments, including servicing and repaying long term debt. The Company strives to actively manage its capital structure in response to changes in economic conditions and further deleverage its balance sheet. At September 30, 2025, the Company’s capital structure consists of working capital surplus (deficit), long-term debt and shareholders’ equity. Management believes its current capital resources and its ability to manage cash flow and working capital levels will allow the Company to meet its current and future obligations, to make interest and principal payments, and to fund the other needs of the business.

Long Term Debt

The 2028 Notes bear interest at the fixed rate of 12.00% per annum payable semi-annually, mature on October 1, 2028. The 2028 Notes are secured by a second priority lien on the Company’s assets and are junior to amounts owing to the Senior Credit Facility lenders.

The 2028 Notes are subject to semi-annual mandatory repayments (the “ECF Sweep”) based on a portion of the Company’s Excess Cash Flow (“ECF”), as defined in the indenture governing the 2025 Notes (the “2028 Indenture). In addition, the Company may voluntarily redeem some or all of the 2028 Notes. Both the mandatory ECF Sweeps and voluntary redemptions are subject to a make-whole premium on the principal amount redeemed, as summarized below:

Redemption type	Applicable period
Mandatory ECF Sweep: 75% of ECF	Until consolidated indebtedness(1) < US150 million	5	%
Mandatory ECF Sweep: 25% of ECF	Until the 2028 Notes outstanding principal < US100 million	5	%
Voluntary	October 1, 2025 to September 30, 2026	6	%
Voluntary	October 1, 2026 to September 30, 2027	3	%
Voluntary	On or after October 1, 2027	0	%

All values are in US Dollars.

(1)	Consolidated indebtedness under the 2028 Indenture includes amounts<br>outstanding under the 2028 Notes, amounts outstanding under the Senior Credit Facility, and any leases that would be classified as a<br>“capital lease” under IAS® 17 – Leases (superseded).

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 14 |

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The 2028 Notes are not subject to financial covenants; however, the 2028 Indenture includes non-financial covenants that restrict the Company’s ability to incur additional indebtedness, create liens, pay dividends, redeem shares, make restricted payments, and sell assets. The Company is also required to hedge at least 50% of the forward twelve calendar month forecasted production^(1)^ and limit annual capital expenditures to US$150 million until the outstanding principal is reduced below US$100 million and US$150 million, respectively. As at September 30, 2025, the Company was in compliance with all covenants.

As the result of a Change of Control Transaction (see “Description of Business” section in this MD&A), Greenfire was required to make an offer to repurchase the 2028 Notes, or a portion thereof. This repurchase offer expired on February 19, 2025, with US$5,000 principal amount tendered for repurchase. On July 21, 2025, the Company redeemed $1.9 million (US$1.4 million) of the 2028 Notes under the ECF Sweep. The next redemption, if applicable, is due by March 6, 2026. As at September 30, 2025, the carrying value of the Company’s long-term debt was $321.9 million and the fair value was $351.6 million (December 31, 2024 carrying value – $328.9 million, fair value - $371.2 million).

Senior CreditFacility

Greenfire has a reserve-based credit facility (the “Senior Credit Facility”) comprised of an operating facility and a syndicated facility. Total credit available under the Senior Credit Facility is $50 million comprised of a $20 million operating facility and a $30 million syndicated facility.

Letter of Credit Facility

Greenfire maintains a separate $55.0 million letter of credit facility (the “EDC Facility”) with a Canadian bank that is supported by a performance security guarantee from Export Development Canada (“EDC”). The EDC Facility is available on a demand basis. As at September 30, 2025, the Company had $54.0 million (December 31, 2024 - $54.0 million) in letters of credit outstanding under the EDC Facility.

Adjusted Working Capital Surplus^(1)^

	September 30,			December 31,
($ thousands)	2025			2024
Current assets		208,425			144,238
Current liabilities		(91,833	)		(335,859	)
Working capital surplus (deficit)		116,592			(191,621	)
Current portion of risk management contracts		(13,000	)		248
Current portion of long-term debt		10,719			248,489
Adjusted working capital surplus^(1)^		114,311			57,116
(1)	Non-GAAP measure without a standardized meaning under IFRS Accounting<br>Standards. Refer to the “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” section in this MD&A.
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(2)	Forecasted<br> production is defined by the 2028 Indenture as the Company’s proved developed producing<br> (“PDP”) forecast in the Company’s most recent reserve report, as determined<br> by a qualified and independent reserves evaluator, as prepared to the Canadian standard using<br> National Instrument 51-101.
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| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 15 |

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As of September 30, 2025, working capital increased to a surplus of $116.6 million, compared to a deficit of $191.6 million at December 31, 2024, representing an improvement of $308.2 million. This was driven by the Company’s offer to repurchase a portion of its 2028 Notes, resulting in those 2028 Notes being presented as a current liability at December 31, 2024. This offer expired on February 19, 2025, see the “Capital Resources and Liquidity – Long-Term Debt” section of this MD&A. Adjusted working capital surplus increased to $114.3 million as at September 30, 2025, from $57.1 million as at December 31, 2024. The increase was primarily due to an increase in cash and cash equivalents.

Share Capital

	November 3,		September 30,		December 31,
(thousands of shares, units, or warrants)	2025		2025		2024
Common shares		70,257		70,253		69,718
Warrants		7,527		7,527		7,527
Performance warrants		-		-		2,520
Deferred share units		-		-		21
Performance share units		253		254		875
Restricted share units		91		95		136

The Company is authorized to issue an unlimited number of Common Shares without a nominal or par value. The Company’s Board of Directors has suspended further grants under the Incentive Plan.

Cash Flow Summary

	Three months ended<br><br> September 30,						Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
($ thousands)	2025			2024			2025			2024
Cash provided (used) by:
Operating activities		48,764			(17,875	)		101,169			84,352
Financing activities		(2,235	)		(88,584	)		(4,290	)		(88,684	)
Investing activities		(2,727	)		(16,741	)		(48,492	)		(70,314	)
Exchange rate impact on cash and cash equivalents		874			932			(1,150	)		2,830
Change in cash and cash equivalents		44,676			(122,268	)		47,237			(71,816	)

Cash Provided (Used) by Operating Activities

Cash provided by operating activities in the third quarter of 2025 was $48.8 million, compared to cash used by operating activities of $17.9 million in the same period in 2024. This change was primarily due to changes in non-cash working capital associated with the Company’s efforts to maximize the July 2024 ECF Sweep of its 2028 Notes.

For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, cash provided by operating activities was $101.2 million compared to $84.4 million in 2024. The increase relates to changes non-cash working capital, partially offset by a decline in Adjusted EBITDA.

Based on current and forecasted production levels, operating expenses, capital expenditures, existing commodity price risk management contracts and current outlook for commodity prices, the Company expects cash provided by operating activities will be sufficient to cover its operational commitments and financial obligations under the 2028 Indenture and the credit agreement governing the Senior Credit Facility over the next twelve months.

Cash Used in Financing Activities

Cash used in financing activities for the three months ended September 30, 2025 was $2.2 million, compared to $88.6 million in the same period of 2024. Cash used in financing activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 was $4.3 million, compared to $88.7 million in the same period of 2024. The decrease in both periods reflects lower debt repayments in 2025.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 16 |

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Cash Used in Investing Activities

Cash used in investing activities for third quarter of 2025 was $2.7 million, compared to $16.7 million in the same period of 2024. The decrease is attributable to lower capital expenditures and changes in non-cash working capital.

Cash used in investing activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $48.5 million, compared to $70.3 million in the same period of 2024. The decrease is attributable to lower capital expenditures during the nine months ended September 30, 2025.

Capital Expenditures^(1)^

	Three months ended<br><br> September 30,				Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
($ thousands)	2025		2024		2025		2024
Property, plant and equipment expenditures		17,896		21,175		55,035		74,919
Acquisitions		-		-		-		3,714
Capital expenditures^(1)^		17,896		21,175		55,035		78,633
(1)	Supplementary financial measure. Refer to the “Supplementary<br>Financial Measures” section of this MD&A.
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Adjusted Funds Flow^(1)^and AdjustedFree Cash Flow^(1)^

	Three months ended<br><br> September 30,						Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
($ thousands)	2025			2024			2025			2024
Cash provided by (used in) operating activities		48,764			(17,875	)		101,169			84,352
Non-recurring transactions^(2)^		-			1,000			1,853			1,000
Changes in non-cash working capital		(10,713	)		60,979			316			33,548
Adjusted funds flow^(1)^		38,051			44,104			103,338			118,900
Property, plant and equipment expenditures		(17,896	)		(21,175	)		(55,035	)		(74,919	)
Acquisitions		-			-			-			(3,714	)
Adjusted free cash flow^(1)^		20,155			22,929			48,303			40,267
(1)	Non-GAAP measures without a standardized meaning under IFRS Accounting<br>Standards. Refer to the “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” section in this MD&A.
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(2)	See “Related Party Transaction” section in this MD&A<br>for further information.

Adjusted funds flow was $38.1 million, during the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $44.1 million during the same period in 2024. Adjusted funds flow was $103.3 million, during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $118.9 million during the same period in 2024. The decrease in adjusted funds flow for both periods was impacted by declines in Adjusted EBITDA.

Adjusted free cash flow was $20.2 million, during the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $22.9 million during the same period in 2024. The decrease relates to lower adjusted funds flow, partially offset by a decrease in capital expenditures.

Adjusted free cash flow was $48.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $40.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024. This increase relates to decreased capital expenditures, partially offset by a decrease in adjusted funds flow.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 17 |

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RELATED PARTY TRANSACTION

In 2025, Greenfire agreed to reimburse WEF for approximately $1.9 million of legal fees associated with the Change of Control Transaction including its adoption of a shareholder rights plan and related hearings before the Alberta Securities Commission, in which WEF was successful. The reimbursement was reviewed and approved by the independent members of the Company’s Board of Directors.

RISK FACTORS

The Company’s business is subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, any of which may adversely affect the Company’s business and its financial results and results of its operations. Certain of these risks and uncertainties are described throughout this MD&A. For additional information refer to the “Risk Factors” section in our 2024 AIF, which is also filed with the SEC under cover of Form 40-F, is available online at www.sedarplus.ca, www.sec.gov and on our website at www.greenfireres.com.

SUMMARY OF QUARTERLY RESULTS

							2024										2023
( thousands, unless otherwise noted)			Q2		Q1		Q4		Q3			Q2		Q1			Q4
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT(1)				80
WTI (US/bbl)	64.93			63.74		71.42		70.27		75.09			80.57		76.96			78.32
WTI (C/bbl)	89.43			88.22		102.47		98.32		102.42			110.25		103.80			106.66
WCS (C/bbl)	75.12			74.00		84.29		80.75		83.94			91.63		77.76			76.85
AECO (C/GJ)	0.60			1.60		2.05		1.40		0.65			1.12		2.36			2.18
FX (:CAD)(2)	1.377			1.384		1.435		1.399		1.364			1.368		1.349			1.362
OPERATING RESULTS
Bitumen production (bbls/d)	15,757			15,748		17,495		19,384		19,125			18,993		19,667			17,335
FINANCIAL RESULTS
Oil sales	141,137			144,542		183,637		208,895		193,643			219,444		200,990			161,730
Oil sales (/bbl)	73.24			72.53		82.10		79.00		83.01			89.93		75.41			71.04
Operating expenses	31,936			31,823		37,929		40,864		40,655			34,997		36,348			35,084
Operating expenses (/bbl)	22.52			22.35		24.21		21.83		23.90			20.42		20.10			22.05
Gross profit (loss)(3)	14,526			55,829		34,392		26,471		76,772			58,581		(12,068	)		29,150
Operating netback(4)	53,328			49,905		49,604		65,183		57,833			62,872		44,649			27,353
Operating netback (/bbl)(4)	37.60			35.06		31.67		34.81		34.00			36.68		24.69			17.19
Adjusted EBITDA(4)	48,286			44,273		41,316		62,472		53,388			58,423		39,346			23,434
Net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss)	(8,751	)		48,730		16,163		78,562		58,916			30,848		(46,915	)		(4,659	)
Per share - basic	(0.12	)		0.69		0.23		1.13		0.85			0.45		(0.68	)		(0.07	)
Per share - diluted	(0.12	)		0.69		0.23		1.09		0.82			0.43		(0.68	)		(0.07	)
Cash provided by (used in) operating activities	48,764			17,732		34,673		60,195		(17,875	)		85,163		17,064			25,530
Adjusted funds flow(4)	38,051			33,843		31,444		52,950		44,104			47,207		27,589			10,517
Capital expenditures(3)	17,896			10,840		26,299		13,161		21,175			23,009		34,449			19,413
Adjusted free cash flow(4)	20,155			23,003		5,145		39,789		22,929			24,198		(6,860	)		(8,896	)
FINANCIAL POSITION
Cash and cash equivalents	114,656			69,980		72,238		67,419		37,709			159,977		90,234			109,525
Total assets	1,303,797			1,285,472		1,270,152		1,257,471		1,163,759			1,247,106		1,193,953			1,173,483
Total non-current financial liabilities	332,528			331,914		338,990		100,181		244,727			301,623		337,999			348,200
Total debt	321,869			314,705		329,627		328,930		308,561			396,584		387,966			376,350
Shareholders’ equity	879,436			886,993		838,126		821,431		742,384			681,118		648,156			695,000

All values are in US Dollars.

(1)	These benchmark prices are not the Company’s realized sales<br>price.
(2)	Quarterly average exchange rates as per the Bank of Canada.
(3)	Supplementary financial measure. Refer to the “Supplementary Financial Measures” section of<br>this MD&A.
(4)	Non-GAAP measures without a standardized meaning under IFRS Accounting Standards. Refer to the “Non-GAAP<br>and Other Financial Measures” section in this MD&A.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 18 |

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NON-GAAP AND OTHER FINANCIAL MEASURES

Certain financial measures in this MD&A are non-GAAP financial measures or ratios. These measures do not have a standardized meaning under IFRS Accounting Standards and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures provided by other companies. These non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS Accounting Standards. This MD&A also contains supplementary financial measures and ratios. Supplementary financial measures are derived from IFRS Accounting Standards.

Non-GAAP financial measures and ratios include: adjusted EBITDA, operating netback, operating netback, excluding realized gain (loss) on risk management contracts, adjusted funds flow, adjusted free cash flow, effective royalty rate, adjusted working capital surplus (deficit) and per barrel figures associated with non-GAAP financial measures.

Supplementary financial measures and ratiosinclude: gross profit (loss), capital expenditures and depletion.

While these measures are commonly used in the oil and natural gas industry, the Company’s determination of these measures may not be comparable with calculations of similar measures presented by other reporting issuers. We believe that the inclusion of these specified financial measures provides useful information to financial statement users when evaluating the financial results of Greenfire.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures &Ratios

Adjusted EBITDA (including per barrel ($/bbl))

Net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss) is the most directly comparable GAAP measure for adjusted EBITDA, which is a non-GAAP measure. Adjusted EBITDA is calculated as net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss) before interest and financing, income taxes, depletion, depreciation and amortization, transaction costs, refinancing costs and is adjusted for certain non-cash items, or other items that are considered non-recurring in nature or outside of normal business operations. When adjusted EBITDA is expressed on a per barrel basis it is a non-GAAP ratio. Adjusted EBITDA ($/bbl) is calculated by dividing adjusted EBITDA by the Company’s total bitumen sales volume in a specified period. Adjusted EBITDA is used to measure Greenfire’s profitability from its underlying asset base on a continuing basis. This measure is not intended to represent net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss) in accordance with IFRS Accounting Standards. For a reconciliation of net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss) to adjusted EBITDA, see the “Results of Operations – Net Income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss) and Adjusted EBITDA” section in this MD&A.

Operating Netback (including per barrel ($/bbl)) and Operating Netback,excluding realized gain (loss) risk management contracts (including per barrel ($/bbl))

Gross profit (loss) is the most directly comparable GAAP measure to operating netback and operating netback, excluding realized (gain) loss on risk management contracts which are non-GAAP measures. These measures are not intended to represent gross profit (loss), net earnings or other measures of financial performance calculated in accordance with IFRS Accounting Standards. Operating netback, excluding realized gain (loss) on risk management contracts is comprised of gross profit (loss), plus loss on risk management contracts, less gain on risk management contracts and less depletion expense on the Company’s operating assets. Operating netback, excluding realized gain (loss) on risk management contracts per barrel ($/bbl) is calculated by dividing operating netback , excluding realized gain (loss) on risk management contracts by the Company’s bitumen sales volume in a specified period. Operating netback is further adjusted for realized gain (loss) risk management contracts, as appropriate. Operating netback per barrel ($/bbl) is calculated by dividing operating netback by the Company’s bitumen sales volume in a specified period. When Operating netback is expressed on a per barrel basis it is a non-GAAP ratio. Operating netback and operating netback, excluding realized gain (loss) on risk management contracts are financial measures widely used in the oil and gas industry as supplementary measures of a company’s efficiency and ability to generate cash flow for debt repayments, capital expenditures or other uses. See the “Financial Results – Operating Netback” section in this MD&A for a reconciliation of gross profit (loss) to operating netback and operating netback, excluding realized gain (loss) on risk management contracts.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 19 |

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Adjusted Funds Flow

Cash provided by operating activities is the most directly comparable GAAP measure for adjusted funds flow, which is a non-GAAP measure. This measure is not intended to represent cash provided by operating activities calculated in accordance with IFRS Accounting Standards.

The adjusted funds flow measure allows management and others to evaluate the Company’s ability to fund its capital programs and meet its ongoing financial obligations using cash flow internally generated from ongoing operating related activities. We compute adjusted funds flow as cash provided by operating activities, excluding the impact of changes in non-cash working capital, less transaction costs and transactions considered non-recurring in nature or outside of normal business operations. For a reconciliation of cash provided by operating activities to adjusted funds flow, see the “Capital Resources and Liquidity – Adjusted Funds Flow and Adjusted Free Cash Flow” section in this MD&A.

Adjusted Free Cash Flow

Cash provided by operating activities is the most directly comparable GAAP measure for adjusted free cash flow, which is a non-GAAP measure. Management uses adjusted free cash flow as an indicator of the efficiency and liquidity of its business, measuring its funds after capital investment that are available to manage debt levels and return capital to shareholders. By removing the impact of current period property, plant and equipment expenditures from adjusted free cash flow, management monitors its adjusted free cash flow to inform its capital allocation decisions. We compute adjusted free cash flow as cash provided by operating activities, excluding the impact of changes in non-cash working capital, less transaction costs, transactions considered non-recurring in nature or outside of normal business operations, property, plant and equipment expenditures and acquisitions. For a reconciliation of cash provided by operating activities to adjusted free cash flow, see the “Capital Resources and Liquidity – Adjusted Funds Flow and Adjusted Free Cash Flow” section in this MD&A.

Effective Royalty Rate

Effective royalty rate is a non-GAAP ratio. Management uses effective royalty rate to compare between pre and post-payout crown royalties by calculating a royalty rate on a consistent basis. Royalties consist of crown royalties on bitumen production paid to the Province of Alberta, based on government prescribed royalty rates. The pre-payout royalty rates are calculated using the Canadian dollar equivalent one-month trailing WTI benchmark price. Post-payout royalty rates are calculated using the estimated annual average Canadian dollar equivalent WTI benchmark price. These rates are applied to gross revenue (pre-payout) or the greater of gross or net revenue (post-payout). “Payout” is reached when net revenue is greater than costs for the cumulative project. Pre-payout, the gross revenue royalty—bitumen realization net of transportation and storage costs—starts at 1%, rising with the Canadian dollar WTI price to a maximum of 9%. Post-payout, the royalty is applied to the higher of the gross revenue royalty or the net revenue royalty (net of operating and capital costs).

The actual royalty rate applied will differ from the effective royalty rate. The effective royalty rate is calculated as royalty expense divided by oil sales after diluent and oil transportation expenses.

	Three months ended<br><br> September 30,						Nine months ended<br><br> September 30,
($ thousands, unless otherwise noted)	2025			2024			2025			2024
Oil sales		141,137			193,643			469,316			614,077
Diluent expense		(49,011	)		(67,889	)		(179,295	)		(244,116	)
Oil transportation expense		(9,607	)		(10,078	)		(30,191	)		(31,395	)
Oil sales after diluent and transportation expense		82,519			115,676			259,830			338,566
Royalties		4,538			8,698			15,294			24,932
Effective royalty rate		5.50	%		7.52	%		5.89	%		7.36	%

Adjusted Working Capital Surplus (Deficit)

Working capital surplus (deficit) is a GAAP measure that is the most directly comparable measure to adjusted working capital surplus (deficit). These measures are not intended to represent current assets, net earnings or other measures of financial performance calculated in accordance with IFRS Accounting Standards. Adjusted working capital surplus (deficit) is comprised of current assets less current liabilities on the Company’s balance sheet and excludes the current portion of risk management contracts and current portion of long-term debt, the latter of which is subject to estimates in future commodity prices, production levels and expenses, among other factors. Adjusted working capital surplus (deficit) is presented because it is a less volatile measure of current assets and current liabilities, after isolating for current portion of long-term debt and current portion of risk management contracts, a surplus of adjusted working capital surplus (deficit) will result in a future net cash inflow to the business that can be used by management to evaluate the Company’s short-term liquidity and its capital resources available at a point in time. A deficiency of adjusted working capital surplus (deficit) will result in a future net cash outflow, which may result in the Company not being able to settle short-term liabilities more than current assets.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 20 |

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Supplementary Financial Measures & Ratios

Gross Profit (Loss)

Gross profit (loss) is a supplementary financial measure prepared on a consistent basis with IFRS Accounting Standards. Greenfire uses gross profit (loss) to assess its core operating performance before considering other expenses such as general and administrative costs, financing costs, and income taxes. Gross profit (loss) is calculated as oil sales, net of royalties, plus gains on risk management contracts, less losses on risk management contracts, diluent expense, operating expense, depletion expense on the Company’s operating assets, transportation expenses and marketing expenses.

Management believes that gross profit (loss) provides investors, analysts, and other stakeholders with useful insight into the Company’s ability to generate profitability from its core operations before non-operating expenses. When gross profit (loss) is expressed on a per barrel basis it is a supplementary financial ratio. See the “Financial Results – Gross Profit (Loss)” section in this MD&A for a reconciliation of gross profit (loss).

Capital Expenditures

Capital expenditures is a supplementary financial measure prepared on a consistent basis with IFRS Accounting Standards. Greenfire uses capital expenditures to monitor the cash flows it invests into property, plant and equipment. Capital expenditures is derived from the statement of cash flows and includes property, plant and equipment expenditures and acquisitions.

Management believes that capital expenditures provides investors, analysts and other stakeholders with a useful insight into the Company’s investments into property, plant and equipment. See the “Capital Resources and Liquidity – Capital Expenditures” section in this MD&A for a reconciliation of capital expenditures.

Depletion

The term “depletion” or “depletion expense” is the portion of depletion and depreciation expense reflecting the cost of development and extraction of its bitumen reserves. The term “Depreciation expense” is the portion of depletion and depreciation expense for assets not directly associated with the development and extraction of the Company’s bitumen reserves. When depletion expense is expressed on a per barrel basis it is a supplementary financial ratio.

Management uses these metrics to analyze those costs directly associated with capital cost of different property, plant and equipment types. A quantitative reconciliation of depletion expense and depreciation expense to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, Depletion and depreciation expense, is contained under the heading “Financial Results – Depletion and Depreciation Expenses” of this MD&A.

COMMITMENTS AND CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS

The Company enters into commitments and contractual obligations in the normal course of operations. The following table is a summary of management’s estimate of the contractual maturities of obligations as at September 30, 2025:

($ thousands)	1 Year
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities		72,920	-	-	-	72,920
Lease liabilities^(1)^		5,177	3,249	555	952	9,933
Long-term debt^(2)^		10,719	319,867	-	-	330,586
Financial liabilities		88,816	323,116	555	952	413,439
Transportation commitments		37,128	73,035	72,992	226,818	409,973
Other commitments		406	892	946	1,617	3,861
Total future payments		126,350	397,043	74,493	229,387	827,273
(1)	Amounts represent expected undiscounted cash payments and include lease agreements to which the Company<br>is committed but that have not yet commenced.
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(2)	Represents the undiscounted principal repayments of the 2028 Notes.

Management believes its current capital resources, combined with its ability to manage cash flow and working capital levels, will enable the Company to meet its current and future obligations, make scheduled interest and principal payments, and fund other business needs. In the short term, the Company anticipates meeting its cash requirements through a combination of cash on hand, operating cash flows, and potentially accessing available credit facilities. However, the Company acknowledges the potential impact of any adverse changes in economic conditions or unforeseen expenses on its ability to generate adequate cash in the short term.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 21 |

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OFF-BALANCE SHEET ARRANGEMENTS

Greenfire does not maintain off-balance sheet transactions, arrangements, obligations or other relationships with unconsolidated entities or others that are reasonably likely to have a material current or future effect on the Company’s financial condition, revenues or expenses, results of operations, liquidity, capital expenditures or capital resources and which are not disclosed in the financial statements.

APPLICATION OF CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES

Certain accounting policies require that management make appropriate decisions with respect to the formulation of estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses. Management reviews its estimates on a regular basis. The emergence of new information and changed circumstances may result in actual results or changes to estimates that differ materially from current estimates. The Company’s use of estimates and judgements in preparing the annual financial statements are discussed in Note 2 of the annual financial statements.

DISCLOSURE CONTROLS AND INTERNAL CONTROLS OVERFINANCIAL REPORTING

Internal Control over Financial Reporting (“ICFR”)and Disclosure Controls and Procedures (“DC&P”)

The Company is required to comply with National Instrument 52-109 (“NI 52-109”) Certification of Disclosure in Issuers’ Annual and Interim Filings. NI 52-109 certification for the interim period ended September 30, 2025 requires that the Company disclose in its interim MD&A any material weaknesses or changes in ICFR and DC&P that occurred during the period that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, the Company’s ICFR and DC&P. The Company confirms that no material weaknesses were identified or such changes were made to its ICFR and DC&P during the three months ended September 30, 2025.

FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS

This MD&A contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information within the meaning of the applicable United States federal securities laws and applicable Canadian securities laws (forward-looking information being collectively hereinafter referred to as “forward-looking statements”). Such forward-looking statements are based on expectations, estimates and projections as at the date of this MD&A. Any statements that involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance (often but not always using phrases such as “expects”, “is expected”, “anticipates”, “plans”, “budget”, “scheduled”, “forecasts”, “estimates”, “believes” or “intends”, or variations of such words and phrases (including negative and grammatical variations), or stating that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “should”, “might” or “will” be taken, occur or be achieved) are not statements of historical fact and may be forward-looking statements and are intended to identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements and information concerning: the intentions, strategy, plans and future actions of the Company; that Greenfire plans to leverage its large resource base and significant infrastructure in place to drive meaningful, capital-efficient production growth; Greenfire’s strategic objective to manage and enhance its asset portfolio to maximize long-term net asset value per share for Greenfire shareholders, including by investing in proven, industry-standard SAGD optimization techniques at the Hangingstone Facilities; the expected timing for the restoration of full steam capacity at the Expansion Asset; anticipated production for 2025; the timing of commissioning for our sulphur removal facilities at the Expansion Asset and the expected impact; timing for drilling of, and first oil from, Pad 7; plans for drilling new wells at the Expansion Asset in 2026, including timing of first oil; our expectation that we will incur long-lead capital spending related to surface facilities at Pad 8; timing for drilling at Pad 8; plans for redevelopment opportunities at two existing shut-in well pairs at the Demo Asset, including expected timing for incremental production; capital expenditures and operational strategies for the Expansion Asset and the Demo Asset; the 2026 Guidance, including the Company’s capital budget and the allocation thereof; growth initiatives including production increases and the timing thereof; our proposed Refinancing Initiatives, including our intention to undertake a rights offering; our plan to redeem our 2028 Notes; the expected implementation of the Senior Credit Facility and the terms thereof; the Board of Directors’ suspension of future grants under the Incentive Plan; management’s intent to actively manage the Company’s capital structure in response to changes in economic conditions and its intention to further deleverage the Company’s balance sheet; management’s belief that the Company’s current capital resources and its ability to manage cash flow and working capital levels will allow the Company to meet its current and future obligations, to make interest and principal payments, and to fund the other needs of the business; expectations related to the Company’s risk management program; the expectation that cash provided by operating activities will be sufficient to cover its operational commitments and financial obligations under the 2028 Indenture and the credit agreement governing the Senior Credit Facility over the next twelve months; and statements relating to the business and future activities of the Company after the date of this MD&A.

Management approved the capital expenditure and production guidance contained herein as of the date of this MD&A. The purpose of the capital expenditure and production guidance is to assist readers in understanding the Company’s expected and targeted financial position and performance, and this information may not be appropriate for other purposes.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 22 |

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Forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs of the Company’s management, as well as on assumptions, which management believes to be reasonable based on information available at the time such statements were made. In addition to other assumptions set out herein, the forward-looking statements contained herein are based on the following assumptions: Greenfire’s ability to compete with other companies; the anticipated future financial or operating performance of the Company; the expected results of operations; expectations that current trends and impacts may continue; assumptions as to future drilling results; assumptions of proceeds from the $300 million rights offering; the success of the implementation of the Senior Credit Facility; our ability to redeem our 2028 Notes; assumptions as to costs and commodity prices; the timing and amount of funding required to execute the Company’s business plans; assumptions about future capital expenditures; the effect on the Company of any changes to existing or new legislation or policy or government regulation; the length of time required to obtain permits, certifications and approvals; the availability of labor; estimated budgets; assumptions about future interest and currency exchange rates; assumptions underlying Greenfire’s available corporate tax pools and applicable royalty rates; requirements for additional capital; the timing and possible outcome of regulatory and permitting matters; Greenfire’s ability to obtain all applicable regulatory approvals in connection with the operation of its business; goals; strategies; future growth and the adequacy of financial resources. However, by their nature, forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual results, performance or achievements to differ from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including, without limitation: a decline in oil prices or widening of differentials between various crude oil prices; lower than expected reservoir performance, including, but not limited to: lower oil production rates; the inability to recognize continued or increased efficiencies from the Company’s production enhancement program and processing plant enhancements; reduced access to or an increase in the cost of diluent; an increase in the cost of natural gas or electricity; the reliability and maintenance of Greenfire’s facilities; equipment failures that result in a failure to achieve expected benefits of capital expenditure programs or result in reduced production or increased costs; supply chain disruption and risks of increased costs relating to inflation; the uncertainty of reserve estimates and estimates and projects relating to production, costs and expenses; uncertainties resulting from potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; the safety and reliability of pipelines and trucking services that transport Greenfire’s products; the need to drill additional wells; the cost to transport bitumen, diluent and bitumen blend, and the cost to dispose of certain by-products; the availability and cost of insurance and the inability to insure against certain types of losses; severe weather or catastrophic events such as fires, droughts, lightning, earthquakes, extreme cold weather, storms or explosions; seasonal weather patterns and the corresponding effects of the spring thaw on Greenfire’s properties; operational and financial risks associated with wildfires in Alberta; the availability of pipeline capacity and other transportation and storage facilities for the Company’s bitumen blend; the cost of chemicals used in Greenfire’s operations, including, but not limited to, in connection with water and/or oil treatment facilities; the availability of and access to drilling equipment and key personnel; risks of cybersecurity threats including the possibility of potential breakdown, invasion, virus, cyber-attack, cyber-fraud, security breach, and destruction or interruption of the Company’s information technology systems; Canadian heavy and light oil export capacity constraints and the resulting impact on realized pricing; the impact of global wars and conflicts on global stability including the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah-Iran conflict, commodity prices and the world economy, changes in the political landscape and/or legal, tax, royalty and regulatory regimes in Canada, and elsewhere; changes in applicable tariff rates; the cost of compliance with applicable regulatory regimes, including, but not limited to, environmental regulation and Government of Alberta production curtailments, if any; the ability to attract or access capital as a result of changing investor priorities and trends, including as a result of climate change, environmental, social and governance initiatives, the adoption of decarbonization policies and the general negative sentiment towards the oil and gas industry; hedging risks; variations in foreign exchange and interest rates; risks related to the Company’s indebtedness, including the risk that Greenfire’s repayment of such indebtedness will not materialize as contemplated herein; failure to accurately estimate abandonment and reclamation costs; the potential for management estimates and assumptions to be inaccurate; risks associated with acquisitions; and general economic, market and business conditions in Canada, the United States and globally.

The lists of risk factors set out in this MD&A or in the Company’s other public disclosure documents are not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any forward-looking statements of the Company. Forward-looking statements are statements about the future and are inherently uncertain. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements as a result of the matters set out in this MD&A generally and certain economic and business factors, some of which may be beyond the control of the Company. In addition, the global financial and credit markets have experienced significant debt and equity market and commodity price volatility which could have a particularly significant, detrimental and unpredictable effect on forward-looking statements. The Company does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update any forward-looking statements, other than as required by applicable law. For all of these reasons, the Company’s securityholders should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

You should carefully consider all of the risks and uncertainties described in the “Risk Factors” section of the Company’s 2024 AIF, which is also filed with the SEC under cover of Form 40-F, is available online at www.sedarplus.ca, www.sec.gov and on our website at www.greenfireres.com.

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 23 |

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INITIAL PRODUCTION RATES

References in this MD&A to initial production rates, other short-term production rates or initial performance measures relating to new wells are useful in confirming the presence of hydrocarbons; however, such rates are not determinative of the rates at which such wells will commence production and decline thereafter and are not indicative of long-term performance or of ultimate recovery. While encouraging, readers are cautioned not to place reliance on such rates in calculating the aggregate production for the Company. Accordingly, the Company cautions that short-term initial results should be considered to be preliminary.

ABREVIATIONS

The following provides a summary of common abbreviations used in this document:

AECO	Alberta natural gas price reference location
AER	Alberta Energy Regulator
bbl	barrel
bbls/d	barrels per day
$ or C$	Canadian dollars
ECF	Excess Cash Flow – as defined in the 2028 Indenture
EDC	Export Development Canada
G&A	General and administrative
IFRS	IFRS^®^Accounting Standards as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board
MD&A	Management’s Discussion and Analysis
NCG	Non-condensable gas
SAGD	Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage
U.S.	United States
US$	United States dollars
WCS	Western Canadian Select
WTI	West Texas Intermediate

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Additional information relating to the Company is available on https://www.greenfireres.com and can also be found on a website maintained by the SEC at www.sec.gov and on Greenfire’s SEDAR+ profile at www.sedarplus.ca

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 24 |

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CORPORATE INFORMATION
Directors	Solicitors
Adam Waterous^(1)(4)^	Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP
Brian Heald^(2)^	3500, 855 – 2^nd^ Street S.W.
Tom Ebbern^(3)^	Bankers Hall East Tower
Andrew Kim	Calgary Alberta, Canada
David Roosth	T2P 4J8
Henry Hager
David Knight-Legg	Scale LLP
	86147, 750 – North Saint Paul Street Ste 250
(1) Executive Chair of the Board of Directors	Dallas, Texas, United States
(2) Chair of the Audit Committee	75201
(3) Chair of the Reserves Committee and Lead Director
(4) Chair of the Compensation and Governance Committee	Bankers
	Bank of Montreal
Officers	595 – 8^th^ Avenue SW
	Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Colin Germaniuk, P.Eng	T2P 1G1
President
	Auditor
Travis Belak, CPA, CA
Vice President, Finance	Deloitte LLP
	700, 850 – 2^nd^ Street S.W.
Jonathan Kanderka, P.Eng	Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Chief Operating Officer	T2P 0R8
Charles R. Kraus	Reserve Engineers
Corporate Secretary
	McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd.
Head Office	2200, 255 – 5^th^ Avenue S.W.
	Calgary, Alberta, Canada
1900, 205 – 5^th^ Avenue SW,	T2P 3G6
Calgary, Alberta, Canada
T2P 2V7
www.greenfireres.com
NYSE: GFR
TSX: GFR

| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | 2025 Q3 Management’s Discussion and Analysis | 25 |

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Exhibit 99.3

Greenfire Resources AnnouncesThird Quarter 2025 Results, Operational Update, 2026 Guidance, and Refinancing Initiatives

Readers are advised to review the “Non-GAAPand Other Financial Measures” section of this press release for information regarding the presentation of financial measures thatdo not have standardized meaning under IFRS^®^Accounting Standards. Readers are also advised to review the “Forward-LookingInformation” section in this press release for information regarding certain forward-looking information and forward-looking statementscontained in this press release. All amounts in this press release are stated in Canadian dollars unless otherwise specified.

The Company holds a 75% working interest inthe Hangingstone Expansion Facility (the “Expansion Asset”) and a 100% working interest in the Hangingstone DemonstrationFacility (the “Demo Asset” and, together with the Expansion Asset, the “Hangingstone Facilities”). Unlessindicated otherwise, production volumes and per unit statistics are presented throughout this press release on a “gross” basisas determined in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 – Standards for Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities, which is theCompany’s gross working interest basis before deduction of royalties.

CALGARY, ALBERTA – November 3, 2025 – Greenfire Resources Ltd. (NYSE: GFR, TSX: GFR) (“Greenfire” or the “Company”), today reported its operating and financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025 (“Q3 2025”). The unaudited condensed interim consolidated financial statements and notes for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 and 2024, as well as the related Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”), will be available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca, on EDGAR at www.sec.gov/edgar and on Greenfire’s website at www.greenfireres.com.

Q3 2025 Highlights

●	Bitumen production of 15,757 bbls/d

●	Adjusted funds flow^(1)^ of $38.1 million

●	Capital expenditures^(2)^ of $17.9 million

●	Adjusted free cash flow^(1)^ of $20.2<br>million

Financial & Operating Highlights


( thousands, unless otherwise indicated)			September 30, <br>2024			June 30, <br>2025
WTI (US/bbl)	64.93			75.09			63.74
WCS differential to WTI (US/bbl)	(10.39	)		(13.55	)		(10.27	)
WCS Hardisty (US/bbl)	54.54			61.54			53.47
Average FX Rate (C/US)	1.3774			1.3636			1.3840
Bitumen production (bbls/d)	15,757			19,125			15,748
Oil sales	141,137			193,643			144,542
Royalties	(4,538	)		(8,698	)		(3,932	)
Realized gains (losses) on risk management contracts	9,135			(6,087	)		9,823
Diluent expense	(49,011	)		(67,889	)		(56,290	)
Transportation and marketing	(11,459	)		(12,481	)		(12,415	)
Operating expenses	(31,936	)		(40,655	)		(31,823	)
Operating netback(1)	53,328			57,833			49,905
Operating netback(1) (/bbl)	37.60			34.00			35.06
Net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss)	(8,751	)		58,916			48,730
Cash provided by (used in) operating activities	48,764			(17,875	)		17,732
Adjusted funds flow(1)	38,051			44,104			33,843
Capital expenditures(2)	17,896			21,175			10,840
Adjusted free cash flow(1)	20,155			22,929			23,003
Cash and cash equivalents	114,656			37,709			69,980
Available credit facilities(3)	50,000			50,000			50,000
Net debt(1)	(216,275	)		(260,755	)		(216,001	)
Common shares (‘000 of shares)	70,253			69,468			70,252

All values are in US Dollars.

(1)	Non-GAAP measures without a standardized meaning under IFRS. Refer to the “Non-GAAP and Other Financial<br>Measures” section in this press release.
(2)	Supplementary financial measure. Refer to the “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” section<br>of this press release.
(3)	The Company had $50.0 million available under the Senior Credit Facility, with no amounts drawn as at<br>September 30, 2025, September 30, 2024, or June 30, 2025.

Q3 2025 Review

Greenfire’s average production for Q3 2025 was 15,757 bbls/d, similar to the 15,748 bbls/d reported in Q2 2025, and below the 19,125 bbls/d reported in Q3 2024.

●	Expansion Asset: Production in Q3 2025<br>was 10,404 bbls/d, reflecting a 3% increase from the previous quarter. The production increase was driven by the optimization of base<br>well performance despite downtime associated with the previously disclosed failure of one of the four steam generators at the Expansion<br>Asset.
●	Demo Asset: Production<br>in Q3 2025 was 5,353 bbls/d, representing a 5% decrease from the previous quarter. This reduction was the result of the planned turnaround<br>at the Demo Asset in September 2025.
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Hangingstone Facilities: Bitumen Production Results

(bbls/d)
Expansion Asset	10,404	16,126	10,105
Demo Asset	5,353	2,999	5,643
Consolidated	15,757	19,125	15,748

Capital expenditures for Q3 2025 totaled $17.9 million, compared to $21.2 million in the same period of the prior year. Adjusted free cash flow was $20.2 million for Q3 2025, as compared to $22.9 million in Q3 2024.

Operational Update

Production and Steam Generation Updates: Greenfire’s October 2025 consolidated production was approximately 15,500 bbls/d. The Company has successfully restored the previously disclosed failed steam generator at the Expansion Asset ahead of schedule and has elected to proactively refurbish a second unit, with full steam capacity expected by year-end 2025. With one of four steam generators currently offline, production will remain impacted by approximately 1,500 bbls/d at the Expansion Asset until year-end 2025.

Regulatory Engagement and Installation of SulphurRemoval Facilities: The Company continues to engage with the Alberta Energy Regulator (the “AER”) regarding previously disclosed sulphur dioxide emissions that exceed regulatory limits at the Expansion Asset. Greenfire has commenced the installation of sulphur removal facilities at the Expansion Asset, with commissioning anticipated in November 2025, which the Company expects will restore compliance with emissions standards.

Drilling Operations:

●	Expansion Asset:
o	Greenfire anticipates commencing drilling operations at its inaugural SAGD well pad, Pad 7, in November<br>2025. Pad 7 comprises 13 well pairs and is located northeast of the Expansion Asset’s Central Processing Facility, adjacent to existing<br>production. First oil from Pad 7 is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2026.
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o	In addition to Pad 7, the Company plans to drill new wells from existing SAGD pads at the Expansion Asset<br>in 2026, including three infill wells from Pad 6 and three well pairs from Pad 5. First oil from these wells is not expected until 2027.
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o	Lastly, in 2026 Greenfire also expects to incur some long-lead capital spending related to surface facilities<br>for Greenfire’s next major SAGD pad, Pad 8, which is currently not expected to commence drilling until the first half of 2027.
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●	Demo Asset:
---	---
o	In the fourth quarter of 2025, Greenfire intends to pursue redevelopment opportunities at two existing<br>shut-in well pairs, originally drilled at the Demo Asset in 2010, with incremental production expected in the first half of 2026. Beyond<br>this redevelopment program, Greenfire’s primary focus at the Demo Asset remains base production optimizations to sustain current<br>production rates.
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Outlook

2025 Production and Capital Guidance: Following strong base well performance at the Hangingstone Facilities, Greenfire anticipates that production will be on the high end of its 2025 production guidance range of 15,000–16,000 bbls/d. In addition, Greenfire anticipates meeting its 2025 capital guidance of $130 million.

2026 Production and Capital Guidance: Greenfire’s board of directors has approved a 2026 capital budget of $180 million, with anticipated annual production of 15,500 to 16,500 bbls/d. The capital budget is comprised of $65 million of sustaining capital and $115 million of growth capital, which can be further categorized on a project level basis as follows:

●	Sustaining Capital (~$65mm)
o	Base capital and capitalized G&A
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o	Expansion Asset: Pad 5 well-pairs
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o	Demo Asset: redevelopment wells
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●	Growth Capital (~$115mm)
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o	Expansion Asset: Pad 7 well-pairs, Pad 6 infills, Pad 8 well-pairs and Oil Sands Exploration (“OSE”) wells (i.e., stratigraphic<br>wells)
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Greenfire expects its 2026 growth capital program to add production at a capital efficiency of approximately $15,000 bbls/d, with planned production increases anticipated to commence in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Refinancing Initiatives

The Company is pleased to announce the following refinancing initiatives (the “Refinancing Initiatives”). Greenfire has secured an upsized $275 million revolving credit facility with a syndicate of Canadian banks (the “Senior Credit Facility”), which will be subject to periodic borrowing base reviews. Closing of the Senior Credit Facility is contingent on, among other things, the Company redeeming the outstanding US$237.5 million aggregate principal amount of senior secured notes due 2028 (the “2028 Notes”). To fund the redemption of the 2028 Notes, the Company intends to undertake a $300 million rights offering as separately announced today. At closing of the Refinancing Initiatives, the Senior Credit Facility is anticipated to be undrawn, and Greenfire is expected to be debt-free.

Advisors

ATB Capital Markets and National Bank Capital Markets are acting as financial advisors to Greenfire on the Refinancing Initiatives. Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP and Scale LLP are acting as legal advisors to Greenfire on the Refinancing Initiatives.

Conference Call Details

Greenfire plans to host a conference call on Tuesday, November 4, 2025 at 7:00 a.m. Mountain Time (9:00 a.m. Eastern Time), during which members of the Company’s executive team will discuss its Q3 2025 results as well as host a question-and-answer session with research analysts.

●	Date: Tuesday, November 4, 2025
●	Time: 7:00 a.m. Mountain Time (9:00 a.m.<br>Eastern Time)
●	Webcast Link: https://www.gowebcasting.com/14366
●	Dial In: 1-888-672-2415 or 1-647-360-0172

o	Participant instructions: Please ask the operator to join either Conference ID #1989145 or the Greenfire Resources Ltd. call.

About Greenfire

Greenfire is an oil sands producer actively developing its long-life and low-decline thermal oil assets in the Athabasca region of Alberta, Canada, with its registered offices in Calgary, Alberta. The Company plans to leverage its large resource base and significant infrastructure in place to drive meaningful, capital-efficient production growth. As part of the Company’s commitment to operational excellence, safe and reliable operations remain a top priority for Greenfire. Greenfire common shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange and Toronto Stock Exchange under the trading symbol “GFR”. For more information, visit greenfireres.com or find Greenfire on LinkedIn and X.

Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures

Certain financial measures in this press release are non-GAAP financial measures or ratios. These measures do not have a standardized meaning under IFRS Accounting Standards and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures provided by other companies. These non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS Accounting Standards. This press release also contains supplementary financial measures.

Non-GAAP financial measures and ratios include operating netback, adjusted funds flow, adjusted free cash flow, net debt and per barrel figures associated with such non-GAAP financial measures. Supplementary financial measures and ratios include gross profit, capital expenditures, and depletion.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

**Operating Netback (including per barrel ($/bbl))**Gross profit (loss) is the most directly comparable GAAP measure to operating netback which is a non-GAAP measure. Operating netback is further adjusted for realized gain (loss) on risk management contracts, as appropriate. Operating netback per barrel ($/bbl) is calculated by dividing operating netback by the Company’s total bitumen sales volume in a specified period. When Operating netback is expressed on a per barrel basis, it is a non-GAAP ratio. Operating netback is a financial measure widely used in the oil and gas industry as a supplementary measure of a company’s efficiency and ability to generate cash flow for debt repayments, capital expenditures, or other uses.

The following table is a reconciliation of gross profit (loss) to operating netback:


		September 30,			June 30,
( thousands, unless otherwise noted)		2024			2025
Gross profit (loss)(1)	14,526		76,772			55,829
Depletion(1)	19,862		17,073			19,915
Gain (loss) on risk management contracts	9,805		(29,925	)		(35,662	)
Operating netback, excluding realized gain (loss) on risk management contracts	44,193		63,920			40,082
Realized gain (loss) on risk management contracts	9,135		(6,087	)		9,823
Operating netback	53,328		57,833			49,905
Operating netback (/bbl)	37.60		34.00			35.06

All values are in US Dollars.

(1)	Supplementary financial measure.

Adjusted Funds Flow and Adjusted Free Cash Flow

The following table is a reconciliation of cash provided by operating activities to adjusted funds flow and adjusted free cashflow:

	Three Months Ended
	September 30,			September 30,			June 30,
($ thousands)	2025			2024			2025
Cash provided by operating activities		48,764			(17,875	)		17,732
Non-recurring transactions^(1)^		-			1,000			-
Changes in non-cash working capital		(10,713	)		60,979			16,111
Adjusted funds flow		38,051			44,104			33,843
Property, plant and equipment expenditures		(17,896	)		(21,175	)		(10,840	)
Acquisitions		-			-			-
Adjusted free cash flow		20,155			22,929			23,003
(1)	Non-recurring transactions relate to a terminated shareholder<br>rights plan and the evaluation of strategic alternatives.
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Net Debt

The table below reconciles long-term debt to net debt.

As at	September 30,			September 30,			June 30,
($ thousands)	2025			2024			2025
Long-term debt		(330,586	)		(218,118	)		(309,641	)
Current assets		208,425			118,405			187,689
Current liabilities		(91,833	)		(176,648	)		(66,565	)
Current portion of risk management contracts		(13,000	)		(9,697	)		(31,940	)
Current portion of warrant liability		10,719			25,303			4,456
Net debt		(216,275	)		(260,755	)		(216,001	)

Net debt is a non-GAAP measure. Long-term debt is a GAAP measure that is the most directly comparable financial statement measure to net debt. Net debt is comprised of long-term debt, adjusted for current assets and current liabilities on the Company’s balance sheet, and excludes the current portions of risk management contracts and warranty liability. Management uses net debt to monitor the Company’s current financial position and to evaluate existing sources of liquidity. Net debt is used to estimate future liquidity and whether additional sources of capital are required to fund planned operations.

Supplementary Financial Measures

Depletion

The term “depletion” or “depletion expense” is the portion of depletion and depreciation expense reflecting the cost of development and extraction of the Company’s bitumen reserves.

Gross Profit (Loss)

	Three Months Ended
	September 30,			September 30,			June 30,
($ thousands)	2025			2024			2025
Oil sales, net of royalties		136,599			184,945			140,610
Gain (loss) on risk management contracts		(9,805	)		29,925			35,662
		126,794			214,870			176,272
Diluent expense		(49,011	)		(67,889	)		(56,290	)
Transportation and marketing		(11,459	)		(12,481	)		(12,415	)
Operating expenses		(31,936	)		(40,655	)		(31,823	)
Depletion		(19,862	)		(17,073	)		(19,915	)
Gross profit (loss)		14,526			76,772			55,829

Capital Expenditures

Management believes that capital expenditures provides investors, analysts and other stakeholders with a useful insight into the Company’s investments into property, plant and equipment.

	Three Months Ended
	September 30,		September 30,		June 30,
($ thousands)	2025		2024		2025
Property, plant and equipment expenditures		17,896		21,175		10,840
Acquisitions		-		-		-
Capital expenditures		17,896		21,175		10,840

Forward-Looking Information

This press release contains forward-looking information and forward-looking statements (collectively, “forward-looking information”) within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The forward-looking information in this press release is based on Greenfire’s current internal expectations, estimates, projections, assumptions, and beliefs. Such forward-looking information is not a guarantee of future performance and involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking information. The Company believes the material factors, expectations and assumptions reflected in the forward-looking information are reasonable as of the time of such information, but no assurance can be given that these factors, expectations and assumptions will prove to be correct, and such forward-looking information included in this press release should not be unduly relied upon.

The use of any of the words “expect”, “target”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “estimate”, “objective”, “ongoing”, “may”, “will”, “project”, “believe”, “depends”, “could” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking information. In particular, but without limiting the generality of the foregoing, this press release contains forward-looking information pertaining to the following: our 2026 Guidance, including our 2026 capital budget and the allocation thereof; the expected timing for the restoration of full steam capacity at the Expansion Asset; anticipated production for 2025; the timing of commissioning for our sulphur removal facilities at the Expansion Asset and the expected impact thereof; timing for drilling of, and first oil from, Pad 7; plans for drilling two new well at the Expansion Asset in 2026, and timing for first oil in respect of the same; our expectation that we will incur long-lead capital spending related to surface facilities at Pad 8; timing for drilling at Pad 8; plans for redevelopment opportunities for two existing shut-in well pairs at the Demo Asset and expected timing for incremental production in respect of the same; the expected impact of our 2026 growth capital program, including production increases and the timing thereof; our proposed Refinancing Initiatives; our plan to redeem our 2028 Notes; the expected implementation of the Senior Credit Facility and the terms thereof; our expectation that the Senior Credit Facility will be undrawn and Greenfire will be debt-free at the closing of the Refinancing Initiatives.

Management approved the capital budget and production guidance contained herein as of the date of this press release. The purpose of the capital budget and production guidance is to assist readers in understanding the Company’s expected and targeted financial position and performance, and this information may not be appropriate for other purposes.

Forward-looking information in this press release relating to oil and gas exploration, development and production, and management’s general expectations relating to the oil and gas industry are based on estimates prepared by management using data from publicly available industry sources as well as from market research and industry analysis and on assumptions based on data and knowledge of the industry which management believes to be reasonable. Although generally indicative of relative market positions, market shares and performance characteristics, this data is inherently imprecise. Management is not aware of any misstatements regarding any industry data presented in press release.

All forward-looking information reflects Greenfire’s beliefs and assumptions based on information available at the time the applicable forward-looking information is disclosed and in light of the Company’s current expectations with respect to such matters as: the success of our Refinancing Initiatives, including the implementation of the Senior Credit Facility; our ability to redeem the 2028 Notes; the success of Greenfire’s operations and growth and expansion projects; expectations regarding production growth, future well production rates and reserves volumes; expectations regarding Greenfire’s capital program; the outlook for general economic trends, industry trends, prevailing and future commodity prices, foreign exchange rates and interest rates; prevailing and future royalty regimes and tax laws; expectations regarding differentials and realized prices; future well production rates and reserves volumes; fluctuations in energy prices based on worldwide demand and geopolitical events; the impact of inflation; the integrity and reliability of Greenfire’s assets; decommissioning obligations; Greenfire’s ability to comply with its financial covenants; Greenfire’s ability to comply with applicable regulations, including those related to various emissions; Greenfire’s ability to obtain all applicable regulatory approvals in connection with the operation of its business; and the governmental, regulatory and legal environment. Management believes that its assumptions and expectations reflected in the forward-looking information contained herein are reasonable based on the information available on the date such information is provided and the process used to prepare the information. However, Greenfire cannot assure readers that these expectations will prove to be correct.

The forward-looking information included in this press release is not a guarantee of future performance and involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward- looking information, including, without limitation: changes in oil and gas prices and differentials; changes in the demand for or supply of Greenfire’s products; the continued impact, or further deterioration, in global economic and market conditions, including from inflation and/or certain geopolitical conflicts, such as the ongoing war in Eastern Europe and the conflict in the Middle East, and other heightened geopolitical risks, including imposition of tariffs or other trade barriers, and the ability of the Company to carry on operations as contemplated in light of the foregoing; determinations by OPEC and other countries as to production levels; unanticipated operating results or production declines; changes in tax or environmental laws, climate change regulations, royalty rates or other regulatory matters; changes in Greenfire’s operating and development plans; reliability of Company owned and third party facilities, infrastructure and pipelines required for Greenfire’s operations and production; competition for, among other things, capital, acquisitions of reserves and resources, undeveloped lands, access to services, third party processing capacity and skilled personnel; inability to retain drilling rigs and other services; severe weather conditions, including wildfires, impacting Greenfire’s operations and third party infrastructure; availability of diluent, natural gas and power to operate Greenfire’s facilities; failure to realize the anticipated benefits of the Company’s acquisitions; incorrect assessment of the value of acquisitions; delays resulting from or inability to obtain required regulatory approvals; increased debt levels or debt service requirements; inflation; changes in foreign exchange rates; inaccurate estimation of Greenfire’s bitumen reserves volumes; limited, unfavourable or a lack of access to capital markets or other sources of capital; increased costs; failure to comply with applicable regulations, including relating to the Company’s air emissions, and potentially significant penalties and orders associated therewith and associated significant effect on the Company’s business, operations, production, reserves estimates and financial condition; a lack of adequate insurance coverage; and other factors discussed under the “Risk Factors” section in Greenfire’s Management’s Discussion & Analysis for the interim period ended September 30, 2025 and Annual Information Form dated March 17, 2025, and from time to time in Greenfire’s public disclosure documents, which are available on the Company’s SEDAR+ profile at www.sedarplus.ca, and in the Company’s annual report on Form 40-F filed with the SEC, which is available on the Company’s EDGAR profile at www.sec.gov.

The foregoing risks should not be construed as exhaustive. The forward-looking information contained in this press release speaks only as of the date of this press release and Greenfire does not assume any obligation to publicly update or revise such forward-looking information to reflect new events or circumstances, except as may be required pursuant to applicable laws. Any forward-looking information contained herein is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.

Contact Information

Greenfire Resources Ltd.

205 5th Avenue SW

Suite 1900

Calgary, AB T2P 2V7

investors@greenfireres.com

greenfireres.com

Exhibit 99.4

Greenfire Resources Announces Intent to ConductC$300 Million Rights Offering

CALGARY, ALBERTA – November 3, 2025– Greenfire Resources Ltd. (NYSE: GFR, TSX: GFR) (“Greenfire” or the “Company”), today announced its intention to undertake a rights offering of its common shares for gross proceeds of approximately C$300 million (the “Rights Offering”).

The Rights Offering is expected to be made to all holders of Greenfire’s common shares of record as of a record date to be determined.

In connection with the Rights Offering, the Company expects to enter into a standby purchase agreement with certain limited partnerships comprising Waterous Energy Fund, a current holder of approximately 55.9% of the Company’s outstanding common shares (collectively, “WEF Shareholders”), pursuant to which the WEF Shareholders would commit to fully exercise their basic subscription privilege and purchase any common shares not otherwise subscribed for, up to an aggregate of C$300 million (the “WEF Standby Commitment”). No fee will be payable to WEF as part of the WEF Standby Commitment.

The detailed terms of the Rights Offering, including the WEF Standby Commitment, will be determined prior to commencement through negotiations between the WEF Shareholders and a special committee comprised of independent directors of Greenfire that has been established in connection with the Rights Offering. Subject to market conditions, Greenfire expects that the subscription price for the Rights Offering will reflect a discount no greater than the minimum 15% discount required under applicable TSX rules.

Net proceeds from the Rights Offering, together with cash on hand are expected to be used to fund the redemption of the Company’s US$237.5 million of outstanding senior secured notes due 2028 (the “2028 Notes”) at a redemption price of 106% plus any accrued and unpaid interest. Greenfire expects to issue a conditional notice of redemption in respect of the 2028 Notes following the formal launch of the Rights Offering.

The Rights Offering is expected to be made in Canada pursuant to a Canadian rights offering circular to be filed with Canadian securities regulators, and in the United States pursuant to a registration statement on Form F-10 to be filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that will contain the Canadian rights offering circular. The Rights Offering is subject to the execution of definitive documentation, receipt of all necessary approvals, and market and other conditions. The Company may elect not to proceed with the Rights Offering or may modify its terms, timing and conditions.

This press release is issued pursuant to, and in accordance with, Rule 135 under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “US Securities Act”), and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities, nor shall there be any sale of securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such jurisdiction. Any offering of securities will be made only in accordance with the registration requirements of the US Securities Act and other applicable securities laws.

No securities regulatory authority has either approved or disapproved the contents of this press release.

About Greenfire

Forward-Looking Information

This news release contains certain “forward-looking statements” concerning anticipated future events, results, circumstances, performance or expectations with respect to the Company and its operations, including its strategy and financial performance and condition. Forward-looking statements include statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon future events or conditions, or include words such as “expects”, “anticipates”, “plans”, “believes”, “estimates”, “intends”, “targets”, “projects”, “forecasts”, “schedule”, or negative versions thereof and other similar expressions, or future or conditional verbs such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “would” and “could”. The forward-looking statements contained in this news release include, but are not limited to: the Rights Offering, the expected standby commitment of the WEF Shareholders, the anticipated use of proceeds to redeem the outstanding 2028 Notes, and the filing of a registration statement on Form F-10. Forward-looking statements are based on underlying assumptions and management’s beliefs, estimates and opinions, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties surrounding future expectations generally that may cause actual results to vary from plans, targets and estimates. Some of the important risks and uncertainties that could affect forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: finalization of the terms of the contemplated WEF Standby Commitment, final determination of the overall size and price of the Rights Offering; and operational, general economic, market and business conditions, regulatory developments and weather. Forward-looking information is based on a number of assumptions and is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the Company’s control. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors discussed under the heading “Risk Factors” in the Company’s Annual Information Form dated March 17, 2025 which is available under the Company’s issuer profile on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca and on EDGAR at www.sec.gov. The Company cautions readers that actual results may vary significantly from those expected should certain risks or uncertainties materialize or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect. Forward-looking statements are provided for the purpose of providing information about management’s current expectations and plans relating to the future. Readers are cautioned that such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Contact Information

Greenfire Resources Ltd.

205 5th Avenue SW

Suite 1900

Calgary, AB T2P 2V7

investors@greenfireres.com

greenfireres.com