Conference Transcript - GPRE 2026-05-13

Speaker 2

Under current leadership, Green Plains has materially improved its operational execution and lowered its cost base, which should allow the company to leverage favorable biofuels policies and new carbon capture capabilities to redefine its earnings potential. The business improvements have contributed to GPRE shares increasing 4x over the last 12 months. CFO Anne Rees has enhanced the leadership team since joining Green Plains at the beginning of 2026, and will have the opportunity in the coming years to deploy increased cash generation in support of the company's long-term strategies. We're excited to have Anne, as well as VP and Treasurer Will Yackel, with us to discuss Green Plains outlook and opportunities. Thank you both for joining us. It's a little sticky. So I guess where I wanted to start is on some of the internal changes that have taken place that have enabled a material change in the execution at the company. So can you talk about some of the things that you're doing differently and maybe what's driven that?

Speaker 1

Yeah, so with Chris Ozowski is the new CEO and under his leadership, and he really comes from an operations background. So a lot of operational discipline has been put into place over the last few years, and we can see that with, you know, how the plants are producing and the utilization rates, which were, we raised the total production capacity at the end of Q4. And, you know, in the Q1, it was 97% utilization, and that is where, you know, we believe the plants will continue to operate, if not higher. And so, you know, really focusing on the operational and just, you know, the discipline across the entire company. So not only in the operations space, but within our finance space, within how we hedge, how we buy corn. All of that's everything we're looking at from, you know, being more disciplined and making sure that we're being a data-driven organization and following what the data tells us and making decisions based on that. You know, and obviously, you know, we've been, there's a lot of changes last year and a distinct effort to simplify the business. So removing those areas of the business that weren't generating good returns and just trying to get down to the basics and the fundamentals of the business has been a big focus and has proven in the numbers that is definitely the right direction. And, you know, the other piece, obviously, is carbon, you know, has really been, you know, helpful for the ethanol industry as a whole and for Green Plains in particular, you know, given the benefits that we get from having three facilities in Nebraska on the Trailblazer pipeline. So, but all of our facilities qualify for the 45Z carbon credits right now between kind of the reduction, the removal of the ILUC penalty in 2026, as well as, you know, being able to take advantage of some of the provisions within the 45Z regulation with, you know, recs and energy credits. and just overall continue, you know, get the 45Z by having the production, the ethanol production. So, you know, having those plants run well and producing ethanol is key to being able to capitalize on that.

Speaker 2

So there's the execution side and then there's the cost side where you guys have done a great job from a productivity perspective. Is there more to do there? And if so, kind of what are the areas or buckets where you might see that opportunity?

Speaker 1

Yeah, I mean, there's always those opportunities. And, you know, from a production perspective, when we talk about yields, you know, there's different things that we can do. From, like, an ethanol yield perspective, we've been looking at doing different trials with different yeasts to be able to get a higher ethanol yield. and really helping to focus on that operational excellence within the plant. So, you know, a lot of the way that you drive good ethanol yields and good corn oil yields is through stable production and good processes as far as, you know, cleaning and maintaining equipment and doing all of those things. It's a lot of the basics that needs to be done, but if you do it consistently over time and maintain good consistency in the process, you're going to get better yields. And so, you know, that is really truly where the focus is and where it's been and why we're seeing, you know, those benefits come through. So, we've been really pleased from that perspective with the production side of it. And then as far as, you know, continued ability to drive down costs, that always exists, right, within a company. You know, I think, you know, what we're really looking at, and, you know, Will can chime in here, too, from a cost perspective. of, you know, we made a lot of progress last year on our SG&A reductions, but we still have more to go. And now it's more of a focused effort, and I would say more of like a scalpel, right, and really getting into how our processes operate and looking at, okay, well, you know, can we continue to optimize systems? You know, where are we doing things that could be more efficient? And continuing to work down the costs in that manner.

Speaker 3

Yeah, maybe just add a little bit of color. I mean, a lot of what we did in the initial kind of cutting exercises, I don't want to say it was low-hanging fruit, but we're definitely more focused on some of the things that maybe have a little bit longer runway, like Ann mentioned, systems in IT or, you know, things that have, you know, certain contracts associated with them, things of that nature. And then, again, on the plan side, again, a lot of the heavy lifting was done just on process improvement and focusing on operational excellence. And as we're, I'm sure, going to talk about more, you know, we're going to be investing inside of our platform, and that's going to have further implications for getting costs outside of our business permanently.

Speaker 2

Okay, great. Maybe looking at kind of the current ethanol margin environment on an underlying basis, I mean, how would you kind of characterize where we are today, the current environment?

Speaker 1

Yeah, it's very strong. You know, we're very pleased with how, obviously, Q1, we just had our earnings call. Q1 is always our most challenging quarter. It always has been in the ethanol industry just because you're, you know, after the holidays, you're before summer driving, right? You kind of get into that low period of time. And so, you know, to see the margins that we did for Q1, you know, was really encouraging. And, you know, there's a number of components to that. You know, the RVO announcement was very helpful from a corn oil perspective, and it continues to be. And the 45Zs were also, you know, helpful from a corn oil perspective with having a low CI feedstock that, you know, the bio-based diesel producers are interested in. That's helped, you know, generate continued interest in that area. And really, they're doing the same thing that any commodity business is doing, right? We want to lock in corn because we need that for our feedstock. They need to lock in corn oil for their feedstock. So, you know, we're able to take advantage of that area. You know, I think, too, this administration's been very friendly towards ethanol and, you know, bioproducts in general. And so, you know, we're seeing a lot of movement, you know, through both the E15 in California being passed. Now they're still working on the rules, but, you know, additional generation there. Plenty of, you know, other states that have been working on their low carbon fuel standards. And now, obviously, today, right, is a big day with the E15 continuation going on in Washington. So, you know, there's a lot of, ethanol is a great product, it's very bipartisan, right? We have support on both sides, and it's helpful for the consumer, it's a low cost, particularly right now, right? I know as, you know, things have escalated in the Middle East, a lot of folks have really noticed in what their price they're paying for the gasoline has gone up, and it's, you You know, there's always, ethanol has always been the lower cost energy fuel, and now that's very clear and very apparent with the increase in the gasoline prices. So, you know, it just helps escalate the conversation around the need for E15 year-round and not have to, you know, we've had it year-round for the last eight years, but there's all these hoops that have had to have been jumped through to get to it. And, you know, we just, it's easier on the blenders, it's easier on everyone if we can just get it done. So, you know, we feel like there's a lot of tailwinds for the ethanol industry, you know, between the different regulations that have been passed, the various states looking at their own low-carbon fuel markets, a lot of export, right? The exports have continued to increase. So it's all very positive from an ethanol industry perspective.

Speaker 2

One of the things that I think investors are really struggling with right now, and this is not just for you guys, but it's across the entire biofuel supply chain. We got this RVO. Fundamentals were going to get better. We also had this war with really high energy prices, which there is also helping the operating environment. How do you think about what is fundamental versus what is created by kind of geopolitical? And so, you know, I guess in other words, if we were to get a ceasefire, right, how much does that impact the operating environment versus the underlying fundamental improvement?

Speaker 1

Yeah, I mean, I would say that, you know, the geopolitical environment, we saw, you know, a spike kind of early on because of it, but it's really normalized. And so we're still seeing good margins, and we're getting into our summer driving season. You know, a majority of the facilities either are or have gone through their spring shutdown cycles. And the RVO, you know, has been very helpful, but, you know, with the corn oil prices. But it's all part of the fundamentals. It's really not that much about what is going on in the Middle East. And so, you know, well, there might be, I mean, I think as everybody is experienced as there's been, you know, discussions about ceasefires or not ceasefires, kind of the markets fluctuate. We're going to feel a little bit of that, but I don't feel like really a majority of the good margin environment from an ethanol perspective is driven by what's going on in the Middle East. Okay.

Speaker 2

You teed up the E15 conversation, so I wanted to get that question in there, but it feels like E15 has been a conversation for the last several years that kind of just is ongoing. I haven't seen any headlines today if they're out there. I don't know, given the conference.

Speaker 1

Nothing yet. You've been making me away from my phone for an hour or so.

Speaker 2

So I guess, can you just let us know, relative to the last couple years, which maybe it's been a little bit disappointing, a set of outcomes, Where are we today with E15? What are the next steps? How do you think this plays out from here?

Speaker 1

Yeah, I wish I had a crystal ball, right? Like, that would be terrific. You know, I really do feel like it's a matter of when, not a matter of if. And the conversation has continued to gain traction. Now, the price of gasoline has heightened that conversation, obviously. But really, all it's done is reiterated what we've been saying all along from an industry perspective is, you know, and we're in the Midwest, so, right, we can pull up to most of our gas stations and see E15 pumps. And I know that that's not always across the entire country like that. But, you know, for us, it's a difference of anywhere from 15 to 40 cents a gallon. That is meaningful, particularly when you're talking about gas prices that are now close to $5. And, you know, and what the E-15 legislation is, is not a mandate. It is an option. And it's one that the blenders have also been very vocal about wanting because going through these emergency waivers every summer is also not helpful for them, right? They want consistency. They want to know where their shipping lanes are. They don't want to have to change these things. So, you know, it's, I think there's a lot of momentum. It's, like I said, it's a bipartisan, you know, lots of support around it. There's just, you know, a small group. Where things have, you know, had more opposition is what the, what do we do about these SREs, right? That's the piece that has kind of brought into the discussion whether or not, you know, this is the right thing to do. And that's really driven by a small number of refiners in very specific states. And so, you know, while we are very fortunate in the Midwest where we have a very strong contingency of our House of Representatives and our senators that obviously are very vocal for the farmers in the ag community and their ethanol producers, you know, their contingencies are very much about their refiners and their states. And so, you know, I understand that there's going to be, you know, vocal opposition in some areas around this, but on the whole, that's a very small number of people and a very small number that it impacts compared to when you talk about what it does to gas prices and energy stability for the entire country. So, you know, we have faith that that logic will prevail. And healthy, robust, you know, debate is always good. That's how this country was founded. So that has to go through its process. But I feel like it will get done, and it's the right thing to do for this country.

Speaker 2

So let's say it does get done, gets passed. nationwide E15, what happens? How do you think about the adoption curve? How do you think about the preparedness of the retail gas environment to like actually take that on? What's your perspective on that?

Speaker 1

Yeah, I mean, I think on the whole, I think the adoption will be quick in different geographies, right? There's some geographies that are very much ready for it, and it's going to be like a light switch, right? It's not going to be a significant change in what's happening today because, like I said, this has been going on for eight years. You know, there's other parts of the country, and that's where I think that it's important and maybe what gets missed a bit in the discussions around E15, and it is not a mandate. It is an option. And so, you know, there are things that have been in place in the past, like the HBIP grants that were given. And so that was really, you know, assistance that was provided to some of these retailers to help them upgrade their infrastructure and be able to take it and be able to sell E15. And I think all of those things are important, and it's not about a specific timeline. It's, you know, this is something that's going to gradually happen over time as consumers demand the lower price fuel. So I think, you know, it's not going to be in some areas, you know, it'll just be a done deal and it'll be business as normal as what it's been. But in others, it's going to be a slower rollout.

Speaker 2

Switching gears a little bit, you already talked about carbon capture, 45Z. That's going to, you know, create somewhat of a step function change in your EBITDA starting this year. You've already started to see some of that. You've already increased your expectations for contributions from 45Z. What was behind the change in expectations?

Speaker 3

So, I mean, the first quarter was our first full quarter of full run rate with our compression equipment in Nebraska at our three facilities. and we always had a pretty good idea of what what the platform was capable but we wanted to give ourselves a chance to actually get the compression equipment up and running you know see it for ourselves and prove it out before we wanted to come back to the street with with updated guidance so that along with the continued high utilization outside of our plant network obviously great to see and talked about that a little bit earlier I mean that's kind of like the base the first thing that you need in order to maximize your 45 Z generation outside of the plants and then just again being able to execute on some of the smaller pieces I mean obviously there's a lot of compliance and audit work that goes into all of this procuring the renewable energy credits getting all those things ticked and tied seeing all the data put in front of us gave us the comfort to raise our guide up to the the newer numbers Andrew and

Speaker 2

So is that just the Nebraska plants, or is it the full plant network?

Speaker 3

It's the full plant network, and part of our increase in the guide comes from both the Advantage Nebraska R3 plants on the Trailblazer pipeline as well as the balance of plants inside of our network that are all capturing 45Z credits today.

Speaker 2

Is there room for you to further lower CI scores, increase the capture rate of 45Z? I guess, what are you looking at that might be able to achieve that?

Speaker 1

There's a variety of levers, right, that we can still look at. You know, one of which is released in the proposed ruling, and we're waiting from final guidance and kind of final calculators to be released, but the ability to capture the lower CI from the feedstock on the corn. So, you know, particularly in kind of the Nebraska and Iowa regions where we buy a lot of our corn direct from the farmers, we've got the ability to, you know, there's, we'll know more once the final rules come out, but even within the proposed rules, there's discussions, right, about needing the farmer attestations. You need to know exactly how much fertilizer the farmer put on the fields and all of that. And so that takes a very direct and personal connection with the farmer to be able to get that data from them. So we feel like in Nebraska and Iowa, for sure, we're going to be able to take advantage of at least some of that. And so that's part of additional CI that we feel like we'll be able to capture. The other piece that we've really been, that we are focused on, and it's not just from a CI perspective. It's helpful, right? The 45Z helps us get the returns on some of the capital faster than non-45Z times, but the main components of the 45Z calculation really are your feedstock, how much ethanol you make, how much energy you're using, so whether that's electricity or natural gas, and then there's the sequestration piece of it. And so that electricity and natural gas are two very good places for us to look at. And the thing that's helpful by us reducing our energy usage is not only for the 45Z, but after that is available, it just makes the plants better and less costly to operate. So, you know, those are really the places that we're specifically looking for capital improvements that both lower the CI score, but just lower the OPEX of the plan altogether.

Speaker 2

Great, okay. You have seen some announcements or headlines, what have you, some mothballed capacity that's maybe reopened. I assume it's mostly tax credit related. Do you expect to see more capacity additions? And maybe, I guess what I'm getting at at the end of the day is, does the industry compete away or produce away the base ethanol margin right after 45z and we end up in a better scenario than where we were but maybe not as good of a

Speaker 1

scenario as we could be in yeah i mean i so 45z right was eligible starting in 2025 and and we saw an increase in production starting last year already but you know and we talked a little bit about exports previously right a lot of the extra production is going towards the export market, and, you know, that's, you know, kind of really driven a lot by requirements by the different countries, so, you know, we've seen, obviously, Canada is a big exporter or importer of our ethanol, the UK, India, you know, the Netherlands is starting to get further up on the list. So, you know, there's a lot of demand being driven by outside of the United States. And so while, you know, we've seen, yes, some incremental, you know, production increases, either from de-bottlenecking, I think there's, it's less likely that you're going to see brand new plants built or anything like that, just because the 45Z runway is so short right now. Right, it still ends in 29. There's not an extension. So, you know, any type of capital improvements, you know, have to be able to be done relatively quickly to be able to get, you know, that type of payback that I think folks are looking for. So, you know, it's really more about the incremental increases in production with the bottlenecking and, you know, perhaps, you know, adding a fermenter or something like that. it's not it's not these huge amounts of of additional production increase and it seems that you know really so like i said we you know california passed their e15 we haven't seen that come online yet really because they're still going through their regulations we have other states that have passed their low low carbon fuel standard and if you get e15 along with the continued requirements that are outside of the country i think any incremental production will

Speaker 2

be easily absorbed. So what what is your best guess for export volume from the U.S. in 26 and 27?

Speaker 1

So right now right so it was 2.1 billion last year you know they're they're estimating 2.4 this year you know I think last I saw with the additional country mandates they're estimating anywhere from another 100 to 300 million additional capacity each year going forward if those mandates all stay in place. So, you know, it seems that it's, you know, more of a continuation. Now, any of those things can change, right, as we know with any sort of, you know, legislative changes. But it feels like, particularly with now the upset and everything that we're seeing in the Middle East you know countries it's they're looking for you know a different fuel one that's a lower cost and ethanol is a as fits the bill on all of those

Speaker 2

things it is you mentioned that Canada's is USMCA a risk trade relations with

Speaker 1

Canada I guess how do you think about that I think we're past that now so I'm not overly concerned about it I mean I wouldn't say that we didn't have those conversations obviously when a lot of the tariff discussions were going on you know thankfully it was always there was like the first list the first tariff list and then there was this like sub tariff list and ethanol ended up on the sub one so you know that that provided us a bit of comfort and and and there was there really is no um canada cannot meet its mandates they don't have the production there to meet those and so I don't think that was the first on their list to cause

Speaker 2

problems over so hopefully that's where things have landed. Okay on the corn oil side can you just talk about the demand environment obviously the RVO is a huge influence there but how do you think about I don't know if you think about offtake agreements or how you think about kind of meeting that demand over time especially when you see where where prices are now what how

Speaker 3

have you seen that evolve since the rvo yeah i mean even before the rvo we saw a nice run up in dco prices and and we've seen that sustained now that the rvo is out you know i think one of the biggest things that we've seen over the last few weeks is that folks on the other side of the table are willing to maybe extend their coverage a little bit which you know is helpful for us i I mean, we talk a bit about hedging and how we think about our business in terms of gross margin. And so as we're looking at the various components of our gross margin, DCO is a big one and a growing one for us. So it's been encouraging to see some of those conversations evolve and being able to have some more robust conversations about putting some bigger, longer-dated strips on the book for the corn oil business.

Speaker 2

Okay, great. Right. You made some changes to the asset base over the last year plus, what have you. How do you think about the asset base today? Any thoughts about further evolving that?

Speaker 1

I mean, I think Chris has been pretty clear that we don't have an interest in getting any smaller. We feel like the steps that were taken last year really right-sized the business. and and now we feel like we're in a position to to really continue to grow whether that be organically or or through other means and so you know really feel like we've we've got a terrific team in place that you know understands you know ethanol well understands the production capabilities well understands the hedging aspects well and so you know we're really trying to continue to optimize the assets that we have that's definitely number one because there's still room to go on those on you know we've we've made some significant improvements over the last few years but there's definitely things that we would still like to do like i said to continue to reduce the energy consumption of some of the plants and you know one of them that we talked about on the earnings call for q1 was the low energy distillation process at York. And so, you know, York is one of our older facilities that, you know, it's just the design of how it was built back then is not the most efficient. And so we know we've got some opportunities there to not only reduce the natural gas, but also to help the production increase there. So, you know, it's items like those that we're going to be really focused on and then continuing to keep our eye on you know what makes the most sense to to continue

Speaker 2

to evolve and increase our asset base i know they don't get as much attention now as they used to but can you give us an update on the high protein feed business even clean sugar where are those in the priority set how are they evolving as well yeah so um let's let's start with high

Speaker 3

protein first you know it's still a great product that we get great feedback from our customers on I mean it's a smaller footprint than it was because of some of the simplification work that that Ann just mentioned but again as we think about the gross mode margin profile of our business it's another nice component and has traded well and good RVs recently so been very happy with that business and again having the smaller footprint has allowed us to be a little bit more intentional with our customer base and so being able to you know continue to invest in those relationships with our customers as has paid some dividends on the CST front you know not a whole lot has changed on the story since the last time that we've talked about it with the market you know we as Anna's alluded to there's a lot of opportunities for us to invest capital inside of our business and with 45Z here just the spread between investing in some of those opportunities and investing to get CST restarted and those returns has widened. So for the time being, it's an option that's available for us, but we have some higher priority items that we need to go out and execute on first before we come back to that.

Speaker 1

ETHAN HENRY- And maybe if I'll just add a little bit on the CST just to help folks understand a bit. So when I talked about the 45Z and the components of it, it's how much corn you're grinding and how much ethanol you're making along with your energy costs. And so what CST, it takes a piece of our grind stream off to make the clean sugar, which the clean sugar does not have an approved pathway through the 45Z. So basically what we're doing is we're lowering any type of 45Z that we can get on that if we make the clean sugar. So as long as 45Z is in play, it just doesn't really make sense

Speaker 2

from a revenue perspective okay that makes sense um shifting gears a little there's been a lot of discussion about uh farmer economics corn acreage fertilizer prices what does that do to yields so i'd love to get your perspective um on first u.s corn acreage do you think usda has kind of got that right more or less in terms of the shift there and to what extent do you you see greater than normal risk, I suppose, to corn yields this year, given kind of the fertilizer dynamics, or not?

Speaker 1

I'm really glad you asked that question, actually. I don't know if that was on our list, but I'm happy about that. You know, the USDA, the one thing that you can always count on is the number's going It's just the way it is. And a lot of that depends, right? The planting season is just starting, or they're halfway through about now, probably, depending on what part of the country you're in. And a lot can happen between now and harvest. So, you know, what the yields are going to come out to be, you know, varies widely, depending on the year and the amount of rain we get and a lot of other factors. The piece I'm glad you asked about was about the fertilizer, Because I think, you know, what folks maybe don't always understand is the reason that these farming practices are being encouraged and why they're being looked at in the 45Z is because it's been scientifically proven that by doing things like no-till, maybe not using as much fertilizer or using manure instead of your basic nitrogen fertilizer, all of those things increases the health of the soil. and that makes the crops more drought resistant and pest resistant all of those things and so you know if you some of the our producers that we work with right they've this is nothing new to them they've done these farming practices for 15 or 20 years because they've all known that these are the right things to do for the health of the soil and constantly you know taking away topsoil in layers, it doesn't help the sustainability of the soil. And so those farmers that have done these practices for years really see that in their So even if it is a drought year or if it's a tough year, they're still seeing some of the best yields that they've ever had without any of those additional items. So, you know, that is why, you know, it's those, the USDA and others have really pushed to get that included in the 45Z regulation is because it just makes a lot of sense and encourages the right behavior from the farmers.

Speaker 2

Interesting. As you promised, we're going to talk about capital allocation a little bit. But, you know, you talked about some of the internal projects that, you know, that you guys have that can continue to improve productivity, execution, maybe 45Z capture, those types of things. As the earnings continue to grow, the balance sheet is in such a better place. You know, how do you kind of think bigger picture about your capital allocation priorities? And maybe as this evolves over the next couple of years, how maybe that changes.

Speaker 3

Yeah, there's a lot to unpack there. But I mean, you know, based on the very strong and structurally supported demand in our base business, as well as the 45Z, you know, for the first time in a long time, we have line of sight into some sustainable cash flow coming into our business. And that presents a challenge that we haven't had for a while, but a ton of opportunity. And we're obviously excited about that. You know, I think it kind of comes down to, you know, obviously there's clear line of sight into some things, which, again, we've talked about. It's investing inside of our plants. You know, they've probably been a little bit underinvested over the last couple of years because we have been a bit capital constrained. And then the return profile from 45Z makes, you know, a lot of things that were kind of marginal maybe four or five years ago much more appetizing for us. So there's a number of things to do inside of there. But then it's, you know, how do we grow this business to be, again, durable and a business that we know can generate profits and returns for our shareholders even beyond 45Z. And obviously, there's a lot of things inside of the capital structure that go along with that, whether that's leveraging, buying back shares. You know, I think it's probably a little early days for us to come back to the street with that. But you're exactly right. I mean, as the balance sheet improves, you know, I think we'll have a little bit more targeted view on what we want our leverage profile to be. And again, one of the reasons it's early days is because, you know, you can get to your target leverage ratio one of two ways. You can grow your earnings or you can reduce or restructure your debt. And until we have, I think, a better view on what that run rate earnings is going to be, you know, it's, again, probably just a little bit too early to come back on how aggressive we do or don't want to be and kind of that deleveraging and kind of other balance sheet optimization strategy.

Speaker 2

Got it. Okay. And maybe my final question, you know, I appreciate that we're one in change quarters into our full run rate of carbon capture. We're just starting to see that real step change from an EBITDA perspective for the business. As you kind of think forward, we've leveled up to a new level. What are the opportunities to kind of take another step higher? I mean, you've got a perspective over time. From your perspective, I was going to lead the witness, but I'm not going to. How do you think about it?

Speaker 1

You know, I think our focus really is around, you know, being the best at what we're doing, right? And so we want to make sure, first of all, that we're focused on all of the operational excellence across the business. and think that, quite frankly, there's a lot of room to help improve EBITDA just within what we've currently got and just being able to maximize that. And, you know, I think that is our main focus and that is truly where we're focused right now. You know, like Will said, you know, we're looking at all of our capital projects and our opportunities from cash on a return basis, right? And everything is on the table, and we want to be, right, very methodical and very data-driven on all of those decision-makings and make sure that what we're doing is getting the best return for the company. So, you know, I think there's a lot of different ways to get there, and we're going to let the math speak for itself and tell us where's the right place to go.

Speaker 2

Great. We're basically out of time, so we'll go ahead and leave it there. Thank you so much for being here.

Speaker 1

Yeah, thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you for having us.