Earnings Call Transcript - LCII Q1 2026

Operator, Operator

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for the LCI Industries First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. My name is Sami, and I'll be coordinating your call today. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that certain statements made on today's conference call regarding LCI Industries and its operations may be considered forward-looking statements under the securities laws and involve a number of risks and uncertainties. As a result, the company cautions you that there are a number of factors, many of which are beyond the company's control, which could cause actual results and events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements. These factors are discussed in the company's earnings release, Form 10-K and in other filings with the SEC. The company disclaims any obligation or undertaking to update forward-looking statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur after the date of the forward-looking statements are made, except as required by law. In addition, during today's conference call, management will refer to certain non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are available in the company's earnings release and Investor Relations presentation, which have been posted on the Investor Relations section of the company's website and are also available on Form 8-K filed this morning with the SEC. On the call from management today are Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer; Lillian Etzkorn, Chief Financial Officer; and Kip Emenhiser, VP of Finance and Treasurer. With that, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Jason Lippert. Please go ahead.

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

Hello, and thank you to everyone for joining us on our Q1 2026 earnings call. We are energized by the momentum we have built in recent quarters as well as by the current strength of our performance in 2026 as we begin the new year with solid results despite continued sluggishness across both retail and wholesale leisure markets. Before diving into the details, I want to recognize the exceptional work our teams have done over the past decade to diversify our business. Against a very challenging industry backdrop, the diversification has clearly proven its value. Our well-balanced portfolio continues to deliver strong results even in cyclical markets like RV experience volume pressure. Achieving this balance has taken time, discipline and continuous refinement of both our teams and our strategy. Our European operations delivered the strongest quarterly results we have seen since building that platform. And our transportation business continues to perform very well as we integrate Freedman Seating and Trans/Air climate control systems. Altogether, our diversified performance meaningfully contributed to LCI achieving an 11.5% EBITDA margin in our Q1 in what we call a pretty turbulent quarter. For the first quarter of 2026, revenue grew 4% year-over-year to $1.1 billion. We expanded profit margins by nearly 100 basis points and grew adjusted diluted EPS by a robust 18%. This outperformance reflects our ongoing investments and the strong execution of our teams as we continue to focus on operational excellence, manufacturing optimization and self-help initiatives. These efforts include significant plant optimizations, disciplined G&A cost reductions and continued volume gains across the increasingly diverse end markets we serve, all while maintaining a strong focus on innovation and customer service, which remain core pillars of our success. Looking at performance by segment, OEM net sales increased 4% to $853 million. RV OEM revenue declined 4% due to lower North American travel trailer and fifth-wheel shipments, which is a strong outcome considering RV wholesale shipments are down more than 12% through the first quarter. At the same time, we grew our Adjacent Industry OEM sales by 17%, driven primarily by higher demand from North American marine OEMs as well as from bus and utility trailer OEM share growth. In addition, Freedman Seating and Trans/Air continue to outperform plan on both integration and synergy realization. As I previously mentioned, our European business also contributed meaningfully following extensive restructuring efforts over the last 18 months that have positioned the region for improved bottom-line performance. In housing, sales were flat year-over-year, outperforming a down market due to continued strength in our residential windows, which helped offset lower manufactured housing demand. As we move through 2026, we expect to further accelerate content gains and expand across our four OEM markets while continuing to outperform the broader RV industry. We now expect RV wholesale shipments to be in the range of 315,000 to 330,000 units, which reflects a reduction of 20,000 units at both the high and the low end of prior expectations. For the marine industry, we continue to anticipate flat to low single-digit OEM growth this year. Innovation remains a cornerstone of LCI's long-term success and has driven a significant increase in towable content of 73% since 2020. Recent product introductions, including anti-lock braking systems, Touring Coil Suspensions, SunDecks, Chill Cubes, and our 4000 series windows continue to gain traction as customers look to enhance the end user experience. Towable RV content increased 13% over the past year to $5,826 per unit, representing the largest year-over-year increase in our history as we close on the $6,000 content per unit mark. Our five most recently launched products are now generating an annualized revenue run rate exceeding $270 million. Looking ahead, we expect approximately $140 million in incremental annualized run rate gains from new product placements during this 2027 model change as well as from market share expansion in the RV space. Our newest product launch is the next-generation leveling and stabilization system for travel trailers that will be more affordable than past generations. It will also be featured as standard equipment across all Brinkley travel trailers at this year's model change. Brinkley's Model I trailers rank among the industry's top five trailer brands, which will provide strong visibility for this product. We believe this launch represents a $100 million total addressable market opportunity for LCI and a natural fit for customers as we are the standout leader in leveling systems for towables and motorhomes. This ongoing innovation, combined with our scale advantages, advanced manufacturing technologies and deep expertise in complex mission-critical components has created customer loyalty that continues to differentiate LCI. Our customers consistently look to us to help them stand out in their respective brands. Turning to Aftermarket. The same customer loyalty continues to drive consistent outperformance. During the quarter, Aftermarket net sales grew 7% in a down retail environment for both automotive and RV. Over the past decade, we have embedded more than $15 billion of replaceable content into RVs that will ultimately enter the service and repair cycles. Over the next three years, approximately 1.5 million of these RVs are expected to do so, each requiring LCI parts and service solutions across key categories, including chassis, leveling systems, slide-out systems, awnings, suspensions, windows, furniture, doors and appliances, all of which are critical components. Our RV and Marine Aftermarket Care Center and technical teams, now more than 400 team members strong, have been built from the ground up over the past decade. Today, our teams support thousands of dealer service and repair locations nationwide and manage more than 2 million customer interactions annually. As a result, LCI remains one of the most visible and trusted brands in the RV aftermarket. A recent milestone in our growth is the launch of our first in-store Lippert product setup within Blue Compass RV, the second largest RV dealer in the country. As we expand these in-store concepts, we create incremental sales opportunities for both LCI and our dealer partners. The Lippert upgrade experience delivered through our brand-new Lippert factory service centers continues to gain traction by providing consumers and dealers direct access to advanced upgrades such as Touring Coil Suspension, anti-lock braking systems and other advanced Lippert products. As for mobile service and in-factory upgrades, we are now performing more than 200 service appointments each week, and we expect this initiative to become increasingly impactful as it continues to scale. Our automotive aftermarket business is benefiting from a market disruption as First Brands, previously our largest competitor in the hitch and towing space, moved through bankruptcy. We are actively working to capture displaced OEM and Aftermarket demand, representing an estimated $70 million incremental annual revenue opportunity. Our automotive aftermarket business is currently trending up high teens year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting early success in capturing this share as well as incremental growth in this category given where retail demand is. We are also expanding our Aftermarket infrastructure with the addition of two major facilities that we've mentioned on previous calls. Our new 600,000 square foot distribution center in South Bend came online last quarter, significantly increasing our national distribution capacity. And the second facility, approximately 400,000 square feet, is expected to be completed by year-end and will consolidate several less efficient manufacturing operations that support Ranch Hand-branded products in Texas while also positioning us in a more favorable labor market in Seguin, Texas. Profitability remains a key highlight. Operating margin improved to 8.7% from 7.8% a year ago, driven by efficiency, improved product mix, plant optimization and continued G&A discipline. We continue to evaluate divestiture opportunities for select lower-margin businesses. As a result, we continue to target 70 basis points to 120 basis points of operating margin improvement in 2026 as we progress toward our long-term goal of achieving double-digit margins. Our balance sheet remains very strong, supported by more than $250 million of operating cash flow over the last 12 months and total liquidity exceeding $700 million at quarter end. We remain disciplined in our capital allocation, prioritizing investment in operational excellence, innovation-driven diversification and complementary M&A. Over the past 25 years, we have completed 77 acquisitions and our pipeline of smaller tuck-in opportunities remains active. Most importantly, returning capital to shareholders remains an important priority, which has been supported by a dividend yield above 3.5% and opportunistic share repurchases. With regards to the discussions with Patrick, our Board has determined that the best path forward is to continue executing our strategy as a stand-alone company, a strategy we feel has and will continue to position us and our stakeholders well into the future. In summary, we are confident in our ability to perform through a wide range of macro environments. Our innovation-driven content growth, higher-margin Aftermarket platform, expanding presence across adjacent OEM markets and disciplined execution continue to strengthen our competitive position. Most importantly, none of this will be possible without the dedication and talent of the incredible people of LCI who continue to drive our long-term success. With that, I will turn it over to Lillian to walk through our financial results in more detail.

Lillian Etzkorn, Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Jason, and thank you all for joining us. We're off to a strong start in 2026. In the first quarter, LCI delivered revenue growth, margin expansion and significantly higher earnings per share. This performance comes despite weaker industry fundamentals and a full-year RV unit outlook that has deteriorated in recent months. Our results reflect the strength of our operating model and the tremendous efforts of the LCI team as we continue to execute on our strategic initiatives to drive growth and profitability. Taking a closer look at quarterly results, consolidated net sales grew 4% year-over-year to $1.1 billion. OEM net sales also grew 4%, driven by a 17% increase in Adjacent Industries OEM. This growth was fueled by strategic investments and stronger sales to North American Adjacent Industries OEMs. These gains more than offset a 4% decline in RV OEM net sales. The RV OEM performance reflects lower North American travel trailer and fifth-wheel shipments, partially offset by price increases to cover increased material costs, a change in our RV sales mix towards higher content fifth-wheel units, growth in our North American motorhome RV unit shipments and progress in our ongoing efforts to take market share. Content per towable RV unit remains a tailwind for us, increasing to $5,826, which was up 13% year-over-year and 3% sequentially. This year-over-year increase was driven by approximately 3% organic growth from innovation and recent product launches, an improved mix of higher content fifth-wheel units and increases in selling prices to cover increased material costs. Content per motorized unit increased 6% to $3,970. In our Aftermarket business, net sales increased 7% year-over-year to $238 million. Growth was driven by price increases to cover higher material costs as well as contributions from strategic investments. Consolidated operating profit totaled $95 million, up a robust 17% over the prior year period with operating margin expanding 90 basis points to 8.7%. OEM operating profit margin expanded 150 basis points to 9%. This improvement was driven by higher prices on targeted products to cover increased material costs as well as our ongoing efforts to enhance operating efficiencies through footprint optimization, material sourcing strategies and other operating initiatives. Aftermarket operating profit margin was 7.8% compared to 8.7% in the prior year period, primarily reflecting higher material costs related to tariffs and steel as well as investments in capacity and distribution to support continued growth in the Aftermarket segment. We were able to partially offset these factors by raising prices for targeted products in response to higher material costs, along with sourcing initiatives and favorable sales mix. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $125 million, up 13% year-over-year with the margin expanding 90 basis points to 11.5%. GAAP net income increased 27% to $63 million, resulting in GAAP EPS of $2.53. Adjusted diluted EPS was $2.59, reflecting a $0.06 accounting adjustment for dilution related to our 2030 convertible notes. We remain very well positioned from a balance sheet perspective. Cash and cash equivalents of $142 million at quarter end. Revolver availability was nearly $600 million and total liquidity exceeded $700 million. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.9x, within our targeted range of 1.5 to 2x and reflecting a quarter end outstanding net debt of just over $800 million. Our approach to capital allocation remains balanced and disciplined. First quarter capital expenditures totaled just under $10 million, in line with the prior year. We also look to opportunistically buy back shares under our $300 million repurchase program, and we maintained our quarterly dividend of $1.15 per share with $28 million paid during the quarter. Finally, we continue to seek thoughtful and complementary investments as part of our balanced capital allocation strategy. Turning to our updated full year outlook. RV wholesale shipments are now expected to be 315,000 to 330,000, as Jason mentioned. Marine industry deliveries are still expected to be flat to up low single digits. Despite the subdued industry backdrop, driven by our self-help initiatives and growth platforms, we continue to expect full year revenue of $4.2 billion to $4.3 billion and an operating profit margin in the range of 7.5% to 8%. Reflecting our strong first quarter performance, we are tightening our full year guidance and now expect 2026 adjusted EPS of $8.75 to $9.25. Looking ahead, some of the key growth drivers include continued innovation and increasing content per unit, Aftermarket growth that's benefiting from the growing number of RVs entering the repair and replacement cycle, housing growth benefiting from our growing number of residential window products and increased automotive aftermarket demand. Our adjusted EPS range, representing up to 24% annual growth at the high end, is supported by continued margin expansion. We expect to continue our footprint optimization and address another 8 to 10 facilities this year, alongside ongoing efficiency and cost containment initiatives. Rounding out our updated full year outlook, we expect capital expenditures to be $55 million to $75 million for the year, focused primarily on business investment and innovation. In closing, we are off to a strong start in 2026 with our team focused on executing strategies that drive growth, profitability and enhance shareholder value. With that, operator, we'd be happy to take questions if you could please open up the line.

Operator, Operator

Our first question comes from Nathan Jones from Stifel.

Nathan Jones, Analyst (Stifel)

I guess I'll start with my first question on the Adjacent Industries OEM growth at 17%. Maybe you can give us a little bit more color on where you saw the strength and weaknesses in that segment given that the growth there was so strong?

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

I think a big piece of that came from the fact that we haven't fully lapped the Freedman and Trans/Air acquisitions yet. That's part of it. All the adjacent markets are growing a little bit, but that lapse created some additional increase.

Lillian Etzkorn, Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Nathan, specifically, the revenue from the acquisitions was $47 million in the quarter. So that contains a good chunk of it.

Nathan Jones, Analyst (Stifel)

Fair enough. I guess second question then on the margin performance. It was obviously also very strong. Can you talk about some of the contributors to that? I know you had some inflation going through the business this quarter and pricing going through it — was price cost positive to that or neutral to that? Just any color you can give us on the contributors to the margin expansion.

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I think the biggest piece of the near 100 basis points is all the self-help we're doing with the G&A improvements, all the facility consolidations and things we're doing there. And that's obviously going to continue on through this year. When we talked about the 8 to 10 facility consolidations we have this year, there's some big ones wrapped up in there. We'll be able to give more color at second quarter because really, we're waiting for July shutdown. There's usually a decent shutdown during the Fourth of July, where we can take the time and shut some of these facilities down and consolidate them with others that are still standing.

Nathan Jones, Analyst (Stifel)

And on the price-cost equation, are you able to fully offset the inflationary costs and tariff costs with price? Or is there a lag to that? And then I guess just the last one, the changes in tariffs — any incremental impact from those? And I'll leave it there.

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, there's a lot of puts and takes happening at the moment, obviously. With the new tariff stack after the Supreme Court struck down the old tariffs, there's a little bit of a stack on top of where we were before. We'll be dealing with that over the next months. But our assumption is we're not going to have any different approach or results to dealing with the tariffs that we did in the last few years that we've been dealing with it. So same strategy: continue to work on our strategic sourcing, make sure that we're buying from places and countries strategically so that we're not overpaying on tariffs. And if we've got to pass some things along, we're going to do that and do that carefully with our customers. There will always be a little bit of lag as we sort these things out, but it's not meaningful.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Daniel Moore from CJS Securities.

Dan Moore, Analyst (CJS Securities)

Looking at the revenue guide unchanged despite obviously a softer RV outlook. Just in terms of where you see the opportunity to make it up. It sounds like you raised the Aftermarket opportunity for First Brands. Are there other things that are trending stronger, be it pricing, content, adjacent markets? Where is the makeup there?

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. So First Brands and the Aftermarket piece is a piece of it, obviously. We mentioned in the prepared remarks that revenues for our automotive aftermarket division are mid-teens for the second quarter. We've obviously got good visibility in April and May. So we feel comfortable about that. I think the other big piece is the product placement that we've done on the RV side and the marine side for the model-year change that's coming up here in June. For just the RV piece alone, it was $140 million of new product placement. So that's new products that we've launched and put in the model-year change cycles and also some market share improvements in different areas in the business. We're winning in some of the other diversified adjacent businesses, but the $140 million piece from June forward annualized is probably the other big piece to offset any kind of softness in RV.

Dan Moore, Analyst (CJS Securities)

Yes, really helpful. You mentioned the obvious momentum in Aftermarket. April revenue as a whole was down 4%. Just talk about the cadence of revenue entering May and expectations for Q2 more generally that's kind of embedded in your '26 revenue guide.

Lillian Etzkorn, Chief Financial Officer

Sure. So, as you know, Q2 historically is probably the strongest quarter for us in any given year, and that is what we're expecting for this year as well. So despite April being a little bit softer, we are expecting sequentially to be up and also to be up year-over-year for the second quarter. And then I would say really just normal seasonality as we move through the balance of the year. Third quarter, we tend to have more of the shutdowns — Europe has shutdowns — and then fourth quarter, we taper off. But yes, second quarter, we're expecting it to be nice and strong.

Dan Moore, Analyst (CJS Securities)

Really helpful, Lillian. Last one for me, a little long-winded, I apologize, but you're clearly incurring incremental costs from tariffs and steel and aluminum while still maintaining 7.5% to 8% margin for the year. Given that a lot of these will likely be passed on with a little bit of a lag and the ongoing facility consolidations throughout the year and lower fixed cost absorption, say we ended the year at kind of that midpoint, 7.75%, what would that imply on a run-rate basis entering fiscal '27, assuming inflationary pressures start to level off?

Lillian Etzkorn, Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So again, from the seasonality perspective, the fourth quarter in terms of a jump point in absolute terms is always going to be the lightest quarter. So I wouldn't necessarily use the fourth quarter as the run rate into next year just because that is the low point. What I would say, and I think it's reasonable to assume, is as you're seeing the year-over-year improvement in margin by quarter to continue to see that improvement as that delta year-to-year as your start point for the following year — I think that's reasonable. And the other thing to point out is that, yes, a lot of the self-help is cost activities that Jason is highlighting. But from efficiencies and how we're operating within our facilities, the team has done a really nice job of executing on that in some difficult environments right now from an industry perspective.

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

We feel there's a lot of pent-up demand out there. We're obviously not seeing it in the beginning part of the year here on the retail side, although used seems to be up noticeably, much bigger than what new is. New seems flat to down in most places, but used is up anywhere from high singles to mid-teens on most counts where we're talking to dealers. So I think it really depends a lot on where retail falls, and if we can get new going again, we're certainly going to be working with our customers to make sure that we're giving them every opportunity to get at affordability because that's the biggest headache out there when it comes to some of the sluggishness on new purchases.

Dan Moore, Analyst (CJS Securities)

Yes. I guess my thought was given the lag in some of the pricing and some of the initiatives, you'd probably be entering '27 at an even higher level on an annualized basis, but I'll take the rest offline.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Joe Altobello from Raymond James.

Joseph Altobello, Analyst (Raymond James)

I want to just follow-up on that line of question along operating margin and the improvement you're seeing this year. Obviously, it sounds like most of that is not volume dependent and it's largely in your control. You're talking about 8 to 10 facility closures this year. How much runway do you see into '27 on that self-help side?

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

So, obviously, we've got flow-through from all the changes we made last year that are kind of happening throughout this year, and we've got some carryover from that. These 8 to 10, we're literally just getting ready to start making these moves and consolidations in July. So you can anticipate the benefits from all those moves to impact our P&Ls from July of this year through July of next year. And then we've got more self-help initiatives and some other facility consolidations on tap for next year already lined up. We started thinking really hard about this in the middle of 2024 and started making changes in the event that things didn't get better and the environment didn't improve. I'm glad we did that. As we've dug into these self-help initiatives around G&A and plant consolidations and optimization, we continue to find more things. The low-hanging fruit we're taking care of this year, but there's still actions we can take next year, and that will continue to benefit us through '27 and maybe even into '28.

Joseph Altobello, Analyst (Raymond James)

Well, that's sort of what I was getting at, which is, if the industry looks next year like it does this year, you still see some pretty good margin expansion.

Lillian Etzkorn, Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I think that's reasonable. As we've talked before, we've put out the target of double-digit EBIT margins and a lot of the self-help that we're doing puts us on a nice glide path towards that. Obviously, we do need to see some industry recoveries for the markets that we participate in. But we feel good with the actions that we can take independent of industry movements to put us on continued progression from the margin aspect.

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

And I think the self-help and the consolidations and optimizations are helping a lot more than what we thought. We've had to rip the Band-Aid off in some spots and get uncomfortable. But at the end of the day, we're starting to scratch double digits without the market improving right now. So I think that's a good sign.

Joseph Altobello, Analyst (Raymond James)

Got it. And maybe last one for me. Jason, I'm not sure how much you want to comment on the discussions with Patrick, but maybe talk about what initially attracted you to the deal. And I don't know if you want to talk about why it ultimately fell apart.

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

I mean, as you know, we've done, as we said in the prepared remarks, 77 acquisitions over the course of at least my last 20 years or so in the seat. We're looking at stuff all the time. Our Board challenges us to look at everything from small tuck-ins to large transformational deals. This just happened to be one that got into discussions. But at the end of the day, of the 77 we've done, we probably talked to 400 people, and there's been 300 that haven't gotten done. So we're always looking at these things, whether transformational or small tuck-ins; these things pop up, you just don't necessarily hear about all of them. That's about all we're willing to comment on, Joe.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Patrick Buckley from Jefferies.

Patrick Buckley, Analyst (Jefferies)

I think you called out strong European results in your prepared remarks. What's driving that improvement over there? Is the broader consumer environment showing signs of improvement from what you're seeing?

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

So we've been in Europe since 2016, acquiring several businesses and building a consolidated supply platform. The market over there doesn't grow quickly or drop fast; it is fairly consistent. About 18 months ago, we decided to completely restructure the business there, decentralize it and remove a lot of the corporate structure we had put together. We also implemented similar self-help initiatives and plant consolidations and optimizations that we've done here in the last 18 months, and those actions are starting to show through in nice results.

Patrick Buckley, Analyst (Jefferies)

Got it. And then on the Lippert factory service, could you talk a bit more about the size of that today and what you view as the ultimate size and growth potential of that opportunity and maybe the timeline there?

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

It was more of a concept we implemented last year to address service pain points for consumers. We had one longstanding center in Goshen, and we moved to a bigger facility in Howe with camping spots and more amenities — a destination for people to come to. We added two more facilities at the beginning of this year. It's small today, not bigger than $10 million in revenue, but we're doing more than 200 service appointments per week right now, and that number continues to grow as we get the word out. Our hope is that over the next several years we can grow this into a bigger, more meaningful platform, and we'll continue to provide updates quarter-to-quarter.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Stember from ROTH Capital.

Scott Stember, Analyst (ROTH Capital)

A lot of facility consolidation going on over the last six to nine months. I know that there was a bunch that took place in Q4 and another 8 to 10 for this year. Can you maybe size up the actual benefit that we'll see down to the bottom line this year just from that because that's a huge part of the story for your results this year?

Lillian Etzkorn, Chief Financial Officer

No, that is a key part of the story for the results. You're seeing it in the first quarter — we had an 80 basis point improvement from cost enhancements. A good portion of that is from the consolidations we've done. We expect that to continue as we progress through this year in the second half, similar to last year. The second half is where you'll see more of the consolidation activity and the benefits starting to realize, and you'll see a more material impact as we get into 2027 from our actions in 2026.

Scott Stember, Analyst (ROTH Capital)

Got it. And then, Jason, you made some comments about the Aftermarket trending in April and May. Can you maybe talk about that again? And then also with used RVs outperforming new, could you maybe remind us how much of a benefit that could be for LCI in the Aftermarket with refurbishing and reconditioning units?

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

What I mentioned earlier was that the auto Aftermarket is trending revenue-wise mid-teens in Q2 compared to last year. We have two key components to Aftermarket: automotive, which is roughly half of our Aftermarket business, and RV and marine, where RV is a big piece. The RV side generally follows new units; if new units are down, there can be some sluggishness in RV Aftermarket. Used units being up does drive refurbishing and upgrades; dealers refurbish used units, repair and upgrade them, and that creates Aftermarket demand, though it's hard to precisely quantify. The bigger piece is the COVID-era fleet of units going through repair and replacement over the next several years — roughly 1.5 million units — and a lot of that aftermarket business will come our way.

Scott Stember, Analyst (ROTH Capital)

And on the auto side of the Aftermarket, what is driving that demand? And do you think that's sustainable for the balance of the year?

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

The big driver is the disruption caused by First Brands' bankruptcy. They were a major player in hitch and towing products, and the market needed to find replacements. We're one of the largest players in that space and are capturing a lot of that displaced demand. We're taking on as much as capacity allows, and we expect that to continue because there's no clear resolution to First Brands that would restore that supply quickly.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Tristan Thomas from BMO Capital.

Tristan Thomas-Martin, Analyst (BMO Capital)

Jason, could you update your retail assumption for the year?

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. I'd say we're probably down mid-single digits at this point, somewhere in that range. It's hard to be exact; we'll have a much better feel after we get through the summer selling season, but that's our best guess right now.

Tristan Thomas-Martin, Analyst (BMO Capital)

Okay. And then just looking at Slide 21, your mix of single axle versus multi-axle fifth-wheels was flat year-over-year in the quarter. Do you expect — is that surprising? I'm curious if you expected that to maybe be a little bit richer.

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, it is a little surprising. We talk to a lot of dealers and OEMs. Their commentary on single-axle units is that they expect those to start trending downward at some point in the near future because there's a lot of inventory out there. The good news is it slowed down; for the last several years, single-axle had been going up. We've seen it flatten and peak, and we expect it to go down on the flip side. Fifth-wheels are up a bit right now, which is a good sign, because we put more content into fifth-wheel units than into tandem or single-axle travel trailers.

Tristan Thomas-Martin, Analyst (BMO Capital)

Okay. And then I'm going to sneak in one more. How should we think about the $140 million from new model year placements — does that include the $100 million total addressable market from the travel trailer leveling and stabilization system you called out for Brinkley? And how much of the $140 million falls in calendar '26 versus '27?

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

The $100 million figure is the total addressable market for that type of leveling system. We're just launching it, and Brinkley will put it on Model I trailers as standard equipment, which will give good visibility. It's not a big portion of the $140 million. The $140 million is a collection of many product placements across categories — Chill Cube, AC, Touring Coil Suspensions, ABS, appliances, windows, furniture, chassis and others. Over three to five years, our goal is to penetrate at least 50% of an addressable market for major product launches, and we'll update you as placements ramp. In terms of timing, much of the $140 million reflects placements that begin with the upcoming model changes in June and would be annualized forward from that point, so some of that benefit begins in calendar '26 and scales into '27.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Brandon Rolle from Loop Capital.

Brandon Rolle, Analyst (Loop Capital)

Just first, digging in on the second quarter, are you expecting sequential operating margin expansion versus that 8.7% you had in the first quarter?

Lillian Etzkorn, Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Think of it in terms of year-over-year improvement. Second quarter tends to be a pretty strong quarter for us given the seasonality. So typically, you would expect to see sequential improvement and continued year-over-year improvement as well.

Brandon Rolle, Analyst (Loop Capital)

Okay, great. And then on the overall industry recovery for RVs: retail is underwhelming year-to-date. Is there a scenario where you potentially have to start absorbing some of the raw material price increases because the prices are too much for the end consumer or OEMs begin to push back a little bit? Or do you feel comfortable you'll be able to push through price regardless of industry fundamentals?

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

Absolutely. There are a couple of strategies. One is good-better-best: we work with customers to provide more affordable options so consumers can still get the RV they want if some higher-end components move to more cost-effective alternatives. The second is working with customers on special floor plans and special deals to get more affordable product into the marketplace. We're having those conversations with every large OEM right now. We also have potential tariff refunds on the horizon; if refunds come through as promised, we'll give back to large OEMs what we had to increase them for when tariffs first hit. Affordability is the key issue and we are doing everything we can as a supplier to help dealers provide products priced right for consumers.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Alice Wycklendt from Baird.

Alice Wycklendt, Analyst (Baird)

Just want to circle back on content per unit. Obviously, really strong organic growth of that up 3%, but the other bucket is a big contributor and I think the bulk of that is price adjustments. Can you provide a little bit more detail there? And what was the timing of some of those increases and the expected duration of that tailwind for content per unit?

Lillian Etzkorn, Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So in the content improvement breakout, 3% was organic growth driven by innovative products gaining traction. The rest was a combination of mix — greater fifth-wheel and higher content units — and selling price increases to cover material costs. Those price increases began to come into play around Q2–Q3 last year and started to affect results around the summertime. Those impacts will continue benefit content per unit going forward, and mix remains an important part of that increase given more higher-content units in our sales mix.

Alice Wycklendt, Analyst (Baird)

And then just maybe take a step back. It sounds like integration of Freedman and Trans/Air is going well. What does the M&A pipeline look like today? What are you focused on?

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

As always, we have a lot of names on the list. At any given point we're talking to four or five tuck-in opportunities, ranging from early discussions to LOIs. We'll keep you posted as things progress. The pipeline and multiples haven't changed much in the last couple of years since we restarted looking at M&A actively.

Operator, Operator

I'd like to hand back to Jason for some closing remarks.

Jason Lippert, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. I think the headlines are a lot of the self-help that we've been doing is starting to come into play and have a great impact on the results. After 10 years of really focusing on diversifying the business in all these different areas, all the acquisitions and organic growth we've done are really starting to play into our results as well, and we're excited to update you on our Q2 results in a few months. Thanks, everybody, for tuning in.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's call. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.