Earnings Call Transcript - MO Q4 2021

Operator, Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Altria Group 2021 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Altria's management and a question-and-answer session. Representatives of the investment community and media on the call will be able to ask questions following the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.

Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations

Thanks, Leo. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria's CEO; and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria's fourth quarter and full year business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release, presentation, quarterly metrics and our latest corporate responsibility reports are all available at altria.com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we're comparing results to the same period in 2020. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today's earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections. Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of Altria's Board. Altria reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Today's call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today's earnings release and on our website at altria.com. Finally, all references in today's remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I'll turn the call over to Billy.

Billy Gifford, CEO

Thanks, Mac. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Altria delivered outstanding results in 2021 across our businesses, including strong financial performance, progress toward our vision and advancements in our ESG efforts. This morning, we'll highlight our accomplishments in each of these areas. First, Altria grew its 2021 adjusted diluted earnings per share by 5.7%, driven in part by the resiliency of our cigarette, cigar and moist smokeless tobacco businesses. Additionally, we returned more than $8.1 billion in cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. This total represents the third largest single year cash return in Altria's history and the largest annual return since 2002. We have continued to make progress toward our vision of responsibly leading the transition of adult smokers to a smoke-free future. Our teams took several steps forward in 2021, including accelerating the retail share growth of on! and further enhancing the capabilities to expand heated tobacco and other new U.S. tobacco products, advancing the science, research and development behind our smoke-free products, advocating for tobacco harm reduction by encouraging the FDA and other stakeholders to address the widely held nicotine misperceptions in society. And we made excellent strides in establishing a best-in-class consumer engagement system to support smoker transition to smoke-free products. Our system leverages robust transactional data and our advanced analytic capabilities to engage with consumers at the point of purchase. Finally, some of our achievements across our responsibility focus areas included publishing six corporate responsibility reports, summarizing our progress in critical areas such as harm reduction and underage prevention and publishing our inaugural task force on climate-related financial disclosures report. We were recognized for the second consecutive year with a AA rating from CDP for climate and water stewardship. And we advanced our internal talent and cultural goals, embraced workplace flexibility and embedded inclusion and diversity considerations within our performance review process to hold our leaders accountable. We're excited to share more about our responsibility efforts and our consumer engagement system next month at CAGNY. 2021 was a dynamic year for the U.S. tobacco industry, and total industry volumes were influenced by several factors, including pandemic-induced shifts in consumer purchasing behavior and tobacco usage occasions, a continued trend towards smoke-free alternatives and an evolving regulatory and legislative landscape. Despite year-over-year volatility due to pandemic-related factors, total tobacco volume trends remained stable. In fact, we estimate that overall tobacco space volumes have decreased by 0.3% annualized for the past two years and by 0.8% over the last five years on a compounded annual basis. Diving deeper, total estimated equivalized volumes for smoke-free products in the U.S. grew to 3.8 billion equivalized units in 2021 and represented approximately 24% of the total tobacco space. We estimate the year-over-year increases in smoke-free volumes were driven by the e-vapor category, which resumed its growth after a temporary pause in 2020 and oral nicotine pouches, which continue to grow rapidly from a small base. 2021 smoke-free volumes also benefited from the geographic expansion of IQOS in the heated tobacco category. But we're pressured by modest declines in the MST category due to shifts in consumer purchasing behavior and movement to other smoke-free categories. And in combustibles, volume declined to approximately 11.8 billion equivalized units driven by several factors, which Sal will discuss later in his remarks. Turning to our smoke-free product portfolio. We're excited by the exceptional performance of on! in oral nicotine pouches. on! retail share of oral tobacco increased by nearly a full share point sequentially, reaching 3.9 share points for the fourth quarter and nearly doubling its share over the past six months. These strong results were primarily driven by an increase in multi-can purchases. As of the end of the year, on! was available for sale in approximately 117,000 U.S. retail stores. The on! nicotine pouch category reached a total oral tobacco retail share of 17.9 percentage points in the fourth quarter, growing 7.4 share points year-over-year. We're encouraged that on! represented more than 1/3 of this growth and the brand is proving to be a highly competitive product in the space. Our premarket tobacco applications for the entire on! portfolio remain pending with the FDA. And we believe that the FDA should determine that the marketing of these products is appropriate for the protection of public health. We are actively working on modified risk tobacco product applications for on! and expect to submit these applications to the FDA by the end of this year. We believe an MRTP claim would be an impactful point of differentiation for the brand and an important tool in educating and ultimately transitioning smokers to less harmful products. In heated tobacco, our teams made excellent progress with IQOS in the Northern Virginia market with Marlboro HeatSticks achieving a 1.9% retail share of the cigarette category in stores with distribution for the month of October. Unfortunately, PM USA had to remove IQOS from the market in November due to the International Trade Commission's importation ban and cease and desist orders. PMI is responsible for IQOS manufacturing, and we have been in contact regarding product availability. At the present time, we do not expect to have access to IQOS devices or Marlboro HeatSticks in 2022. However, we remain focused on returning IQOS to the market as soon as possible. Our teams are actively working on re-entry plans and we expect to be ready to bring IQOS back to U.S. consumers when available. Our agreement with PMI contemplates disruptions such as those caused by the ITC orders and requires the parties to negotiate in good faith to amend the agreement appropriately. In the second quarter of 2020, we disclosed two milestones in our IQOS agreement with PMI necessary for PM USA to maintain its exclusive license and distribution rights for IQOS in the U.S. and to earn the renewal option for an additional five-year term. The initial five-year term does not expire until April of 2024. But we believe that PM USA has already met these milestones based on the strong performance of IQOS in the Charlotte and Northern Virginia markets. PMI has communicated that it disagrees with our position. We expect to continue discussing these matters with PMI. We firmly believe that heated tobacco products can play an important role in U.S. harm reduction, and we are continuing our efforts to support the category's growth. We have gained significant knowledge from our IQOS commercialization efforts, which we expect to use going forward. Our teams learned how to educate U.S. smokers on a brand-new tobacco category and how to effectively support their transition journey to smoke-free alternatives. We demonstrated improved performance in each successive market and gained valuable knowledge on leveraging MRTP claims to transition smokers. Additionally, we have built a robust post-market surveillance system, all of which we believe will position us to successfully achieve our objective of moving beyond smoking. Moving to the e-vapor category. The 2021 Monitoring the Future study was recently released, and the data showed positive improvements in underage usage trends. Both underage use of nicotine vaping products and JUUL specifically show continued signs of decline. The latest data shows that JUUL underage usage is down by 70% from 2019 with total underaged nicotine vaping down 27% over the same period. We are encouraged by the progress, but more still needs to be done, and we remain committed to continuing our work to reduce underage use of all tobacco products. Turning to the regulatory environment. The FDA is currently weighing several decisions that we believe will shape the future of harm reduction in the U.S. In the e-vapor category, the FDA has issued marketing denial orders for many e-vapor PMTAs, predominantly applications for open systems and flavored e-liquids. These denial orders have resulted in significant litigation across the country. In the meantime, PMTAs for most leading e-vapor products, including JUUL, are still in an FDA review. The FDA granted its first e-vapor market order last year for the tobacco variant of a Cigalike product. The FDA has not reached a final decision for that manufacturer's menthol variant but did deny its submissions for its other flavored cartridges. In oral tobacco, PMTAs for the leading oral nicotine pouch products, including on! remain pending with the FDA. Last year, the FDA granted the first market authorizations among innovative oral tobacco products for our Verve Discs and Chews in the flavors of Green Mint and Blue Mint. These were also the first flavored product authorizations for newly deemed tobacco products. Additionally, MRTP applications previously submitted for Copenhagen Snuff and competitive Snus products remain in FDA review. Finally, in combustibles, the FDA has stated that they are on track to issue proposed product standards by April 2022 regarding menthol in cigarettes and characterizing flavors in cigars. As a reminder, the FDA rule-making process for these and all potential product standards has multiple steps and provides several opportunities for stakeholders to provide input. There are formal requirements related to public notice and comment and steps requiring the office of management and budget to assess economic consequences at several points in the process. Importantly, if the FDA chooses to move forward with their final rules, they must address all comments received throughout the rule-making process. Of course, any final rule must take into account the potential for unintended consequences and would be subject to legal challenges. We plan to review the proposed rules in detail and intend to engage with the FDA throughout the rulemaking process on each of these issues. We remain optimistic about the future of harm reduction in the U.S. We believe we have an unprecedented opportunity to lead the way in shifting millions of smokers away from cigarettes if we follow the science and foster innovation with the support of reasonable regulation. We are encouraged that the FDA has authorized a product in each of the 3 major smoke-free categories. Going forward, this year, we expect the FDA to carefully consider the scientific merits of each remaining application, and we're hopeful for significant progress in product marketing and claim authorizations. I would like to end my commentary regarding 2021 with the message to Altria's employees. Thank you for your dedication, passion, and creativity through a difficult period. We experienced several challenges last year in both our professional and personal lives, and I admire your resiliency and fortitude. You are a driving force in moving beyond smoking and we are very appreciative of your efforts and commitment. Let's now move to our financial outlook for 2022. Our plans for the year ahead include a continuation of our strategy to balance earnings growth and shareholder returns with investments toward our vision. For 2022, our planned investment areas include digital consumer engagement, smoke-free product research, development and regulatory preparations and marketplace activities in support of our smoke-free products. The external environment remains dynamic, however, and we're monitoring various factors such as the economy, including the impact of increased inflation; the impact of current and potential future COVID-19 variants and mitigation strategies; tobacco consumer dynamics, including tobacco usage occasions and available disposable income; and regulatory and legislative developments. Taking these factors into consideration, we expect to deliver 2022 full year adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $4.79 to $4.93. This range represents an adjusted diluted EPS growth rate of 4% to 7% from a $4.61 base in 2021. We expect 2022 adjusted diluted EPS growth to be weighted toward the second half of the year. Our guidance includes anticipated inflationary increases in master settlement agreement expenses and direct materials expenses and our current expectation that we will not have access to the IQOS system in 2022. I'll now turn it over to Sal to provide more detail on the business environment and our results.

Sal Mancuso, CFO

Thanks, Billy. I'd like to begin with an update on consumer disposable income, mobility and retail store traffic. We believe rising gas prices, inflation and the reduction of COVID-19 relief programs led to a decrease in disposable income on a sequential and year-over-year basis. In addition, increased consumer mobility versus the prior year offers consumers more options for their discretionary spending and led to fewer tobacco usage occasions. At retail, fourth quarter trends were unchanged sequentially. We estimate that compared to pre-pandemic levels the number of tobacco consumer trips to the store continues to be depressed, but tobacco expenditures per trip remain elevated. Moving to our businesses. The smokable products segment delivered excellent financial performance once again. Our strategy for this segment continues to be maximizing profitability while balancing investments in Marlboro with funding the growth of our smoke-free portfolio. We believe our teams are successfully executing this strategy and the segment has delivered strong profit growth and stable Marlboro marketplace performance throughout the pandemic period. In the fourth quarter, the segment grew its adjusted OCI by 4.9% and expanded its adjusted OCI margins to 56.2%. The segment also reported strong net price realization of 8.8%. Fourth quarter smokable segment reported domestic cigarette volumes declined by 5.9%. When adjusted for trade inventory movements and other factors, we estimate that segment domestic cigarette volumes for the fourth quarter declined by 8%, and that industry volumes declined by 6.5% over the same period. As a reminder, adjusted cigarette volumes were strong in the fourth quarter of 2020. With our smokable segment adjusted cigarette volumes declining by just 1% and industry volumes growing by 1.5%. For the full year, smokable segment adjusted OCI grew 3.1% to $10.4 billion. Adjusted OCI margins expanded by 1.2 percentage points to 57.6%. These strong full year results were supported by robust net price realization, up 9.1%. Full year smokable segment reported domestic cigarette volumes declined 7.5% due to the strong comparison period and the continuation of pandemic-driven changes in consumer behavior. When adjusted for trade inventory movement, calendar differences and other factors, we estimate that smokable segment cigarette volumes declined by 6% and that the full industry declined by 5.5%. We believe it's important to analyze cigarette volume trends over the longer term as decline rates in any one year can be influenced by various factors. The COVID-19 pandemic has certainly been one of these distorting factors. And we believe the best way to assess cigarette volumes during this period is looking at 2020 and 2021 volumes combined. In fact, the 2-year average decline rates for adjusted smokable segment and industry cigarette volume declines were 4% and 3%, respectively, well within the range of historic norms. Turning to marketplace performance. Marlboro remains strong and has demonstrated resilience. The cigarette category remains very competitive. After market share gains in the first half of 2021, Marlboro did see share losses in the fourth quarter. We believe the sequential share decline occurred due to macroeconomic pressures on consumer disposable income. While the vast majority of Marlboro consumers are highly brand loyal, we do know that cigarette brand selection for a subset of smokers is dependent on economic conditions. These consumers are more likely to select premium brands during economic upswings as demonstrated by Marlboro's share gains in the first half of 2021, but they are also more likely to trade down in tougher economic situations. We remain focused on the long-term strength of Marlboro. And we are very pleased that its full year share grew 0.2 to 43.1% and that the brand remained stable since the beginning of the pandemic. In discount, total segment retail share in the fourth quarter continued to fluctuate, increasing 0.7 sequentially to 26%, driven primarily by deep discount products. We believe the share increases observed in the discount segment are due to the previously mentioned macroeconomic factors that pressured the consumer in the fourth quarter. For the full year, discount segment share increased 0.5 to 25.4%, which was at the high end of its historical ranges. We expect fluctuation in discount segment shares to continue as the cohort of price-sensitive consumers react to their short-term economic conditions. And in cigars, Middleton provided strong contributions to smokable segment financial results. Reported cigar shipment volume was essentially unchanged for the year, as Middleton maintained the strength of the iconic Black & Mild brand and successfully managed its supply chain during a challenging year. Turning to the oral tobacco products segment. Adjusted OCI and adjusted OCI margins contracted for the full year, primarily due to increased investments behind on!. Total segment reported shipment volume was unchanged for the year. When adjusted for trade inventory movements and calendar differences, we estimate that total oral tobacco segment volumes declined by 0.5%. We remain pleased with the overall performance of the segment as Copenhagen continues to generate significant income in the high-margin MST category, and we're excited about the growth demonstrated by on!. Oral Tobacco Products segment retail share for the fourth quarter was down slightly sequentially as strong share gains from on! nearly offset declines in MST. The segment declined 1.6 percentage points versus the fourth quarter last year due to the continued growth of the oral nicotine pouch category. Turning to our investment in ABI. We recorded $172 million of adjusted equity earnings in the fourth quarter, representing Altria's share of ABI's third quarter results. For the full year, we recorded $639 million in adjusted equity earnings, up 18.3% versus 2020. As we shared in our previous earnings call, we view our ABI stake as a financial investment, and our goal is to maximize the long-term value of the investment for our shareholders. In our all Other operating category, we continue to make progress on our wind down of Philip Morris Capital Corporation. At year-end, the net finance assets balance was $114 million, down more than $200 million since the end of 2020 due to rents received and asset sales. As previously announced, we expect to complete the PMCC wind down by the end of 2022. Turning to capital allocation. We remain committed to creating long-term shareholder value through the pursuit of our vision and our significant capital returns. As Billy mentioned in his opening remarks, we returned more than $8.1 billion in cash last year to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. These record cash returns included paying $6.4 billion in dividends, raising the dividend for the 56th time in 52 years and repurchasing nearly 36 million shares during the year totaling $1.7 billion. We also sold Ste. Michelle Wine Estates and expanded our share repurchase program from $2 billion to $3.5 billion. We have approximately $1.8 billion remaining under this expanded program, which we expect to complete by December 31, 2022. We continue to have a strong balance sheet, and our goal is to maintain an investment-grade credit rating. As of year-end, our debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2.3x and our weighted average coupon was 4%. With that, we'll wrap up, and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions. While the calls are being compiled, I'll remind you that today's earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We've also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other items. Let's open the question-and-answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?

Operator, Operator

Thank you. We will take questions from the investment community first. Our first question comes from Pamela Kaufman from Morgan Stanley.

Pamela Kaufman, Analyst

Hi, good morning.

Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations

Pam, this is Mac. Just one quick second before your question. We understand that there were some technical issues associated with the webcast. So I want to apologize for the disruption to those listening there. We will work to get our recorded remarks up on the website as soon as possible. Thanks, and go ahead, Pam.

Pamela Kaufman, Analyst

Thanks. So how would you characterize the current competitive environment within the cigarette category? The deep discount segment continues to invest in price and is gaining share. Given the headwinds that you highlighted that are impacting the tobacco consumer, how are you thinking about managing price gaps versus the discount segment? And are you prioritizing stabilizing Marlboro market share? Thanks.

Billy Gifford, CEO

Good morning, Pamela, and thanks for your question. I think I would start with Marlboro's share. I mean, when you look at Marlboro's share performance over the past eight quarters, it has been stable. So you can look at kind of this period in the pandemic to pre-pandemic levels and you see Marlboro has remained strong throughout that period. I think when we went through the pandemic, though, there were several macroeconomic tailwinds. So - and we've mentioned them before. There was lower consumer mobility, there were higher government stimulus payments in what we believe led to increased smoking occasions. And when you think about that, that led to increased or higher discretionary income for competitive adult smokers who then traded up to Marlboro. And I think that really showed the continued appeal of premium brands. Now, as we start seeing some of those pressures you're referring to put pressure or decrease the discretionary spend of some of our consumers, you see the more price-sensitive adult smokers moving back to discount brands. And I think that would be expected. Look, we believe that the current discount share, to your point, is at the high end of historical norms. But we do expect quarterly fluctuations in share to continue until the economy begins to stabilize from the pandemic. I think overall, from a pricing standpoint, and I'll be careful not to talk about future pricing. You recall the four factors that we look at to make pricing decisions: strength of the brands; the economic health of our consumers; the demographics or relevancy of the brands across the various age cohorts and corporate objectives. And I think when you think about the strength of the brand, I would remind you that like Marlboro has over 90% loyalty, and that, I think, has shown through the eight quarters of stability.

Pamela Kaufman, Analyst

Thanks. That's helpful. And then just a question on the smokeless segment. Profitability and margins have been under pressure in smokeless over the last several quarters. Can you elaborate on the investments you're making there? And how are you thinking about smokeless investments and profitability in 2022?

Billy Gifford, CEO

Yes, that's an excellent question. I appreciate you bringing it up. As we mentioned in 2020, our primary focus was on overcoming manufacturing capacity constraints, which would allow us to better connect with consumers. Now that we’re present in 117,000 stores, we are aiming for an appealing retail presence. We want to reach smokers with targeted messages through various channels, including direct mail and digital platforms. Given that we are launching a new and expanding category, it’s important to create some retail disruption through both visual appeal and pricing promotions to attract attention. These elements significantly affect the overall oral tobacco category from a margin perspective as we continue to invest and see growth. While I can’t provide an exact date for when these efforts will reach completion, I can assure you that we are committed to investing as this category continues to expand.

Pamela Kaufman, Analyst

Thank you.

Billy Gifford, CEO

Thank you.

Operator, Operator

We'll take our next question from Bonnie Herzog of Goldman Sachs.

Bonnie Herzog, Analyst

Hi, thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Billy Gifford, CEO

Good morning, Bonnie.

Bonnie Herzog, Analyst

I have a question on your '22 EPS guidance. You mentioned you plan to balance earnings growth and shareholder returns with investments towards your vision, which includes increased smoke-free product R&D. But at the same time, you don't expect to have IQOS in the market. So two questions. One, can you give us a sense of your investment spend in R&D? For instance, will your investments in this effort be elevated above '21 levels? And then two, can you share maybe just a little bit more with us about your 2030 vision and how the development of an additional smoke-free product could fit into your portfolio? I'd be curious to hear what that product might look like, when it might be ready to test? Just be curious to hear if it's closed or is this still a year or two out? Thanks.

Billy Gifford, CEO

Thank you for the question, Bonnie. I'll try to address everything, but please let me know if I miss any points. When it comes to our guidance, we consider a range of scenarios across all the categories we are involved in, with various factors influencing those scenarios. It’s essential to recognize that we are still navigating a pandemic environment, and we aim to maintain the flexibility to adapt to our adult consumers as the year progresses and their choices change. Regarding our investment areas, while I know you’d like specific timelines and details about product launches, it's vital to take a step back and understand where we're directing our investments. Our focus includes marketplace activities to support our current products, as well as enhancing digital consumer engagement to connect with consumers on a more personal level, with more details to be shared at CAGNY. Additionally, our efforts encompass not just research and development but also the necessary regulatory preparations. For example, in 2022, we are preparing the MRTP application for the on! portfolio. Our investments span a wide range, including product development within R&D. This is our perspective on 2022 and our forward strategy. If you observe international markets, where innovation occurs more rapidly, you can see consumers are continually exploring new technological options. We want to ensure that our investments align with these trends to keep pace or even lead in meeting consumer needs as time advances. This informs our approach to product development and how it integrates into our overall portfolio.

Bonnie Herzog, Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And then just speaking or thinking about your 2030 vision, could you give us maybe an update on that? And I just keep thinking about any guideposts you guys could share with us that you expect to hit for this business or your business, I should say, in the next three to five years? What ultimately is a realistic target in terms of converting your business to non-combustible products? And then in the context of that and executing on this vision, curious to hear if you're open to M&A to accelerate this? Or are you going to continue to remain focused on things that you develop in-house?

Billy Gifford, CEO

Yes, I believe the situation is somewhat different in the U.S. compared to overseas, as our main base is here. It's important to remember that all products must go through the FDA authorization process, which is crucial for the harm reduction strategies available to us in the U.S. As we make progress and begin to receive FDA authorizations, we will provide updates on our measurement strategies. I understand that you and the investors are looking for this information, but we first need to navigate the FDA process and gain clarity on how these products will be authorized moving forward. That said, we have shared previously that approximately half or slightly more than half of adult cigarette consumers in the U.S. are interested in alternative products that could potentially lower their nicotine-related risks over time. Our goal is to consistently offer these consumers smoke-free products. Looking ahead to our vision for 2030, we recognize the opportunity in reduced-risk products and believe we have the necessary infrastructure to support this initiative, including government and regulatory affairs, a strong sales force, product development, and our engagement with a large number of adult tobacco consumers through our premium brands and digital efforts. Additionally, we have robust core businesses that generate significant cash flow, enabling us to fund our investments. If you were to ask consumers, they would likely affirm our credibility with adult tobacco users. Regarding your last question about mergers and acquisitions versus internal growth, we are closely monitoring the global landscape, but our primary focus remains on organic development and staying connected to consumer needs as we move forward with our strategy.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is from Owen Bennett of Jefferies.

Owen Bennett, Analyst

I just had a question around some of the details on the automatic renewal of the IQOS agreement. And firstly, did you need to hit certain market share levels by April 24? And then two, it sounds like from what you're saying, you believe you already hit these levels in 2020. And would that be right? It just sounds like if that's the case, the share targets were set really low. And then three, if you believe you've already hit these share targets, what exactly is being renegotiated with PMI currently?

Billy Gifford, CEO

Yes. I appreciate it. I want to appreciate your question. Look, we disclosed what we felt like we could from a standpoint. Remember, we have cross-confidentiality in place with PMI. And we disclosed that in 2020 because we thought it was important for you guys and the investors to know that there were performance objectives in the contract. We feel like we have hit those as far as the extension or renegotiation that's taken place. Look, we described that we feel like we hit on PMIs in this agreement with that and their mechanisms in the contract to be able to settle any disputes that take place. You can see with any two parties that have an agreement, there can be disputes or disagreements. And that was all contemplated in the agreement.

Operator, Operator

We'll take our next question from Vivien Azer of Cowen.

Vivien Azer, Analyst

I really appreciate the commentary on the health of the consumer and some of the normalization in terms of down trading behavior. Billy, as I kind of think back to the evolution of the Marlboro franchise over the last decade, there was a big push, if I recall correctly, coming out of the last recession to balance out the price points that were available for Marlboro. So can you just remind us where special blend fits into the total Marlboro franchise? And I recognize your revenue growth management tools have gotten a lot more sophisticated over the last decade. But the role that you envision special blend playing to the extent that we see sustained down trading?

Billy Gifford, CEO

Yes. Thanks for the question, Vivi. I think when you think about the entire Marlboro portfolio, remember that services 4 out of every 10 consumers that go to the marketplace, you have consumers that Marlboro brand appeals to them. And I mentioned it earlier, those price-sensitive consumers, it's still appealing to them. And when they have extra discretionary income, they want to trade up. Across the portfolio with the tools that you mentioned, we can provide the consumer a safe landing with various parts of the portfolio where they can stay in the Marlboro franchise. And we see that's better for them than actually losing them or having them trade out and try to win them back later. And so we have the advanced analytics. We have this robust data coming in from retail. And now with those tools, we're trying to drive it closer and closer to the individual consumer. And we feel like we have the tools that allow us to navigate this type of pressure that the consumer is under. I think it's important, though, to remember that our goal is not to grow Marlboro share through time, it's to stabilize it so that we can grow profitability through time. And so that's where our overall goal is specific to the Marlboro franchise, and then we use the tools in the portfolio to be able to do that.

Vivien Azer, Analyst

That's really helpful. And then just my follow-up question is on the on! franchise. Clearly, the promotional investments that you guys are making are translating to market share gains, which is great to see. I was wondering if you could offer any color on where you see on!’s promotional spending relative to the broader competitive backdrop?

Billy Gifford, CEO

Sure. When you consider the promotional spending, we had to overcome manufacturing capacity constraints. A competitor entered the market before us, so we aimed to disrupt the usual purchasing behaviors of consumers in this category. We are applying the same strategies we use in the cigarette category to this space as well. We're consistently utilizing data from retail, consumer feedback, and assessing what works and what doesn't. We will keep adjusting our approach over time to enhance our share growth, and once we move past the investment period, we expect to see improved margins and profitability.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is from Chris Growe of Stifel.

Chris Growe, Analyst

I had a question, first of all, and this is not even in the situation in the last kind of 1.5 years or 2, but you did not provide a volume outlook for the year, for example, for your cigarette business or smokeless business overall. And I'm just curious, not maybe getting to a number, but just to understand, is that volatility in volume maybe the uncertainty around that, kind of the main factor that could push your EPS around within that range, is the worst volume conclusion for the year? What likely drives the lower end of your EPS range and a better volume performance or at the higher end? Is that one of the main driving factors of your guidance range for the year as you see it?

Billy Gifford, CEO

I think when you think about cigarettes, certainly an important factor in that, but there are always puts and takes that take place in the P&L. And so as I mentioned, Chris, we run a range of scenarios. And in those scenarios, we have puts and takes that take place across the various categories. Certainly, cigarette volume is one of the factors, but it's not the only factor.

Chris Growe, Analyst

Okay. And then I just had a question in relation to Marlboro and share. There's been a few questions on that front. But just one thing I was curious about is that some of your price increases over the last year, 1.5 years, maybe last year, you've set aside some funds that you were going to put towards investing behind Marlboro. I guess I just want to get a sense of, based on the performance and largely flat performance in share, even though it's been up and down. I guess, are those funds being utilized as you expected behind Marlboro? Do you see the need based on some of the growth in deep discount share, for example, to continue to increase that rate of spending behind Marlboro?

Billy Gifford, CEO

We will certainly keep an eye on this, Chris, over time. We are aware of the importance of adapting to our consumers across all categories. I refer back to what I mentioned to Vivien. Our aim with Marlboro is not to increase market share over time, but to maintain a stable share while growing profitability. I believe we were successful in achieving that in 2020.

Operator, Operator

We'll take our next question from Callum Elliott of Bernstein.

Callum Elliott, Analyst

Look, Billy, I appreciate the color on the dispute resolution process with PM. My question is, do you guys have contingency plans in place in heated tobacco in the event that, that dispute resolution process goes against you and the licensing agreement isn't extended beyond 2024?

Billy Gifford, CEO

Yes. I'm not going to go into the hypothetical there, Callum. I think you can appreciate that we feel like we can resolve it. It was pre-thought-out with the agreement that the mechanism is in place to settle disputes. And so we'll go through that process. But we're in continued discussions with PMI.

Callum Elliott, Analyst

Okay. And just a quick follow-up on Vivien's question about sort of promotional environment in nicotine pouches. I guess my question is, are you concerned at all that, that heavy promotional environment for on! might damage the brand equity, and selling today at a huge discount to the market leader, as you mentioned, are you not at all concerned that, that might impact the long-term brand perception here?

Billy Gifford, CEO

We are not concerned. If you look back at the cigarette category, when we introduced Chews, whether under the Marlboro brand or any of our other brands, we always had introductory price promotions. It's crucial to remember that when our consumers visit convenience stores, which are one of the main places they go, they make their decisions in about 10 to 15 seconds. It's almost instantaneous. Therefore, we aim to capture their attention at retail, not just with price promotions, but also by presenting an attractive retail display or engaging them through their mailbox or email digitally. We plan to utilize all available tools. We believe we have solid brand equity and are committed to strengthening it with on!

Operator, Operator

At this time, we'd be happy to open up the queue for our media representatives. We'll take a question from Jennifer Maloney of the Wall Street Journal.

Jennifer Maloney, Journalist

I wanted to follow up on Bonnie's question regarding your R&D and your vision for 2030. Can you specifically discuss how e-vapor fits into your 2030 vision and RP portfolio?

Billy Gifford, CEO

Yes. I think from an R&D portfolio, I'll take that first. You'll remember our agreement with JUUL precludes us from being able to do any organic development in e-vapor. So that's one category that we do not have any organic development going on. If you think about the 2030 vision, the way we think about the e-vapor category, certainly as the entire category is going through the FDA authorization process as they make decisions, the e-vapor category will be in a bit of transition. But we believe the e-vapor category and JUUL included in that can play an important role in the U.S. in harm reduction and the future of harm reduction. So when you think about that, e-vapor can play an important role, but it's going to be in a bit of a transition as it goes through the FDA authorization process.

Jennifer Maloney, Journalist

You only have a minority stake in JUUL. What is your strategy for the 2030 vision in the e-vapor category? Will you only be able to participate in the e-vapor category through your minority stake in JUUL, or do you have another strategy?

Billy Gifford, CEO

Our only involvement in the e-vapor category is through our minority investment in JUUL. If you take a moment to consider JUUL's success in attracting adult smokers to the e-vapor category, it's clear that it maintains a leading market share among adult tobacco consumers in the U.S.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call back to Mac Livingston for closing comments.

Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations

Thanks, Leo, and thank you all for joining us. I'll remind you, once again, we're going to work quickly to get the recording of the remarks back up on the webcast for those who were disrupted there. So apologies for that again. If you have any other further questions, please contact the Investor Relations team. Thanks.

Operator, Operator

This does conclude today's call. You may now disconnect your lines. And everyone, have a great day.