Earnings Call Transcript - PAC Q4 2025

Operator, Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to GAP's Fourth Quarter 2025 Conference Call. Now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to GAP's Investor Relations team. Please go ahead.

Maria Barona, Investor Relations Officer

Thank you, and welcome to GAP's Conference Call. I'd like to take a few moments to review the forward-looking statements as described in the financial disclosure statement. Please be advised that statements made today may not account for future economic circumstances, industry conditions, the company's future performance or financial results. As such, any information discussed is based on several assumptions and factors that could change, causing actual results to materially differ from current expectations. For the complete note on forward-looking statements, please refer to the quarterly report. Thank you for your attention. It is my great pleasure to introduce Mr. Raul Revuelta, GAP Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Saul Villarreal, Chief Financial Officer. The gentlemen will be our speakers today. At this time, I will turn the call over to Mr. Revuelta for his opening remarks.

Raul Revuelta, CEO

Thank you, Maria. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for your time here today. I'm pleased to share with you the company's operational and financial highlights for the fourth quarter of 2025, which concludes a solid year despite the several external challenges that I will discuss today. I will begin with the quarterly passenger traffic and then move on to the financial results, followed by a brief review of the full year. Passenger traffic decreased 0.9% during the fourth quarter compared to the same period of 2024. These first four months stem from the two clear separate dynamics within our portfolio. The first, in Mexico, traffic trends remained relatively stable despite varying performance across the different airports. While passenger growth was 2.9%, revenue was primarily supported by the implementation of the new maximum tariff approved and applied during 2025, as well as the expansion of the works in select markets. Secondly, as you are aware, Hurricane Melissa struck Jamaica on October 28, leading to the temporary suspension of operations at Montego Bay and Kingston Airports. This resulted in a traffic decrease of nearly 35% during the quarter. Although there was no material damage to either airport, passenger traffic did significantly decline in November and December, mainly in Montego Bay. The main factor was the hurricane's impact on the surrounding area as well as the hotel infrastructure, which was around 70% of the total capacity affected. On a positive note, the recovery of total capacity as well as tourist infrastructure across the region has been better than expected. While the actual timing of a full normalization remains unclear, the Minister of Tourism has indicated that hotel capacity is expected to return to 100% by the upcoming 2026 winter season. We remain confident in the long-term fundamentals of the Jamaican market and its overall structural growth potential. Now moving on to the revenues. Combined aeronautical and non-aeronautical service revenues increased by 12.8%, reflecting the sustained structural strength of our business model. Aeronautical revenues grew by 12.6%, primarily driven by the aforementioned maximum tariffs that were approved and applied during 2025 in Mexico, as well as the continued expansion of our routes. New aeronautical revenues increased by 13.3% quarter-over-quarter. In Mexico, in particular, commercial revenues were strong, mainly supported by the performance of the cargo and bonded warehouse business and the opening and renegotiation of commercial spaces under improved market conditions. The most dynamic segments include Food & Beverage, Retail, Ground Transportation, and Leasing Activities. EBITDA increased by 7.5%, reaching MXN 5.1 billion. EBITDA margin, excluding IFRIC 12, stood at 53.8%, a decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 as a result of the higher concession fees in Mexico, additional headcount, and increase in maintenance costs due to the new operations of the jet bridges and Airbuses, a path that must now be operated directly by GAP but was previously managed by a third party. In addition, this includes the impact of lower traffic and therefore, lower revenues in Jamaica in the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa. Net income declined compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, mainly due to higher financial expenses and a decrease in interest income due to a lower cash average balance, the FX effect, as well as the lower interest rate. This is in addition to the provision of the deferred tax adjustment in the aggregate balance of the year. Now let us review the full year performance. 2025 was a year of strong structural growth for GAP. Aeronautical revenue grew by 19.4%, driven mainly by the new tariff applied during 2025 and a 2.7% increase in passenger traffic in Mexico. Non-aeronautical revenue increased by 26.5% for the year, further underscoring the strategic importance of our commercial platform. Non-aeronautical revenue per passenger increased to MXN 152 in 2025 compared to MXN 123 in 2024, reflecting improved commercial execution, product optimization, and a stronger contribution from cargo among the warehouse operations. The consolidation of the business has become a meaningful contributor to our revenue diversification strategy and strengthen the long-term sustainability of our income streams. EBITDA increased by 17.8% year-over-year, reaching MXN 21.3 billion, with an EBITDA margin, excluding IFRIC 12, of 65.6% despite higher concession fees and our cost pressure, profitability remains solid and operationally disciplined. From a balance sheet perspective, as of December 31, 2025, we closed the deal with MXN 10.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents. During the year, we strengthened our capital structure throughout the issuance of bond certificates, while reducing certain bank loan pressures, maintaining flexibility to fund our long-term commitments. In terms of CapEx, throughout 2025, we invested MXN 12.4 billion. This was comprised of the first year of execution under the 2025–2029 Master Development Program. CapEx in our Jamaican airports and commercial investments. The CapEx for the 5-year period in Mexico will focus on major terminal expansion and capacity enhancements, positioning us strongly for future passenger growth and expanded commercial opportunities. Additionally, in December, at the Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting, the business combination between CBX and Terminal Assistance Agreement was approved. This strategic transaction will allow us to further integrate and strengthen the Cross Border Xpress platform, enhancing operational efficiency, expanding service capabilities, and reinforcing our position in the Cross Border Passenger segment. The transaction is currently in the formalization process, and we expect this to contribute positively to GAP's long-term value creation strategy. Let me touch on international expansion opportunities. The Parks & Cope standard process was ultimately canceled by the government. And as has been our track record, we remain disciplined in our capital allocation decisions and our remaining focus on projects that meet our strategic and financial return criteria. Therefore, we continue to allow growth opportunities that complement our existing portfolio strength over our shareholders' value. Before I continue with the presentation, I want to address the recent events concerning the state of Jalisco, namely Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta. Certain incidents were reported throughout different locations of the state of Jalisco on February 22. I just want to assure you that gas facilities, the Guadalajara, and Puerto Vallarta Airport remain fully operational over the weekend and up until this moment. As many of you may be aware, the terminals rely on the protection of the Mexican National Guard as well as the Ministry of National Defense as part of the permanent coordination and security measures with the Federal Authorities. From an operational standpoint, we experienced flight cancellations, including 171 flights in Guadalajara and 134 flights in Puerto Vallarta during February 2022 and 2023. However, this February, February 2024, we only had 4 cancellations in Puerto Vallarta and 11 in Guadalajara. And today, all operations are back to normal. Thus, it has been a steady and consistent improvement from the weekend as we work to regain normalcy after the events from the last weekend. The rest of our portfolio continued to operate without disruption at this stage. We don't anticipate any additional impact. We are monitoring the situation and will update the market as necessary. Back to the results and outlook, I would like to continue with a discussion on guidance. We do not include the CBX business combination and the Technical Assistance Agreement Internalization, which remain in the formalization process. Once the final timing of the consolidation is confirmed, we will update you on the results. That being said, we expect 2026 to be another year of moderate growth, supported by the established structural drivers across our portfolio. Passenger traffic is expected to grow between 2% and 5%, reflecting the consolidation of routes developed to date, estimated load factors, and the potential increasing frequencies and ship capacity across our network. On the revenue side, aeronautical revenues are projected to increase between 9% and 12%, driven by the implementation of current maximum tariffs in Mexico and Kingston airports in Jamaica, combined with traffic performance, inflation assumptions, and projected exchange rates. Non-aeronautical revenues are expected to continue expanding from 6% to 9%, driven by improved contract conditions and traffic growth. As a result, total revenues are expected to grow between 8% and 11% year-over-year. We expect EBITDA to grow between 8% and 11%, while the EBITDA margins will remain solid and approximately 65%, plus or minus 1%, reflecting continued operational discipline while maintaining flexibility to absorb external volatilities. Looking ahead, we remain confident in our strategic direction as we focus on our four growth pillars: strengthening connectivity, expanding commercial revenues, disciplined execution of our infrastructure program, and maintaining a long-term leverage strategy. While external factors such as exchange rate volatility, natural events, and global uncertainty may generate temporary expectations, our diversified airport portfolio's strong domestic demand base and disciplined capital structure position us solidly to continue generating sustainable long-term value. We appreciate your continued support of GAP. Thank you for joining us today, and we now open the floor to your questions.

Operator, Operator

Our first question comes from Gabriel Himelfarb of Scotiabank.

Gabriel Himelfarb Mustri, Analyst

Can you provide some insights on Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta, specifically regarding any cancellations or lower bookings? Additionally, do you anticipate expanding your presence in the U.S. beyond the CBX?

Raul Revuelta, CEO

Thank you, Gabriel. In the case of Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta, as we noted, we saw on the Sunday an important number of cancellations, more than 100 in both airports. For the Monday, we began to see an important recovery. Just yesterday, we only had 4 cancellations in Puerto Vallarta and 11 in Guadalajara. And today, we expect that all operations are back to normal. What we are observing for sure has a major impact on Sunday, but after that, the services from the airlines have gradually normalized. That said, we expect that there will not be any additional impact for our airports in the coming days. Making like a big number of the impact those two to three days had, we forecast that the possible impact was around 50,000 passengers in these both airports. Regarding the second question about the footprint in the U.S. besides the CBX, we will continue to look for opportunities that align with our discipline for capital allocation. For sure, with the platform, CBX in the U.S. opens the possibility for new investments. We are still looking for opportunities that generate value for our shareholders and are completely accretive for the company. But yes, it will open the opportunity to review additional projects in the U.S.

Gabriel Himelfarb Mustri, Analyst

And are you expecting a decrease in traffic in the coming months for Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta from international passengers?

Raul Revuelta, CEO

We are expecting that the trends we've observed in the last months continue. For Guadalajara, we have positive numbers with all the openings of new routes from the Canadian market, mainly, and also recovery from the classic VFR market. We expect additional passengers in the coming months, especially as we will have the first two matches for the World Cup's final eliminations. In general terms, connecting with this unfortunate news from the weekend, we do not expect any further impact on the traffic.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Enrique Cantú of GBM.

Enrique Cantú, Analyst

So regarding the pending tariff adjustments, could you provide more detail on expected timing and visibility around their implementation?

Raul Revuelta, CEO

Yes. Last year, as you remember, in March we increased the general passenger fee by 15% in all our airports. On September 1, we had another 7.5%, and on January 1, we increased about 5% to 6% depending on the airport. For all of that, we are observing that the maximum tariff for the year, depending on the FX effect of the peso against the dollar, we are at around 95% of fulfillment. In summer, we will have two additional increases for our two airports, Vallarta and Los Cabos. With everything in place, we think we could achieve the 95% of fulfillment on time.

Operator, Operator

We will now move to questions submitted to the webcast platform, and I'll turn the call over to Alejandra Soto, Investor Relations Officer, to read the questions. Please go ahead.

Alejandra Soto Ayech, Investor Relations Officer

We have a question from Andressa Varotto from UBS regarding your guidance. Can you provide details on the expected traffic increases for Mexico and Jamaica, as well as your thoughts on the recovery from Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica and the impact of the World Cup in Mexico? Additionally, there was another question that has already been addressed.

Raul Revuelta, CEO

In terms of traffic, we are seeing, in our guidance, an increase in traffic that goes from 2% to 5%. For Jamaica, we are observing a continuous recovery in hotel capacity for Montego Bay. By the end of the year, we could see around minus 2% to 0% growth in passengers. What is important to keep in mind is that the two main peaks for Montego Bay are the spring season and the winter season. In the spring season, we expect a significant impact due to the number of available hotel rooms in Jamaica, leading to a decrease in passengers. However, for the winter season, which is the second high season for Montego Bay, we expect a full recovery of total hotel capacity on the island. Thus, regarding Jamaica, we expect a minus 2% to 0% increase.

Alejandra Soto Ayech, Investor Relations Officer

Thank you, Raul. It is the only question on the webcast. So I will turn the call again to the questions on the floor.

Operator, Operator

We do have a question from Julia Orsi of JPMorgan.

Julia Orsi, Analyst

So just a question on capital allocation. Now that the Turks and Caicos process is pretty much over, can you comment a bit on what's the priority on the capital allocation side?

Raul Revuelta, CEO

In the first half of this year, we will focus on all that means CBX and bringing all efficiencies to our company; that would be, I think, one of the biggest new projects bringing value to the company. But parallel to that, we are working on and looking for other projects that could be interesting for us. We will continue reviewing opportunities in the cargo facilities business. But with the discipline that is part of the company's DNA, we will only pursue projects that are completely accretive. With that in mind, our main focus to bring additional value is on the process of enhancing CBX and its synergies.

Julia Orsi, Analyst

Got it. And just a follow-up on the CBX. What is the expected timeline for the deal to be fully integrated into GAP? And do you have any updates on expected synergies throughout the year? How much should we capture this year?

Raul Revuelta, CEO

In general terms, we are in the middle of the formalization process and expect that by the second quarter of this year, we could fully consolidate all the transactions. In terms of efficiencies, it will be gradual throughout the year. I would estimate that if we begin our consolidation in the second quarter, by the fourth quarter, we should show significant efficiencies from the CBX consolidation process. Our plan for the full implementation of expected synergies should be completed by the middle of 2027.

Operator, Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to Mr. Raul Revuelta for closing remarks.

Raul Revuelta, CEO

Thank you once again for joining us today. Please contact our Investor Relations team with any additional questions you may have. Have a great day, and thank you for your attention.

Operator, Operator

That concludes our meeting today. You may now disconnect.