Earnings Call Transcript - REXR Q2 2025

Operator, Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Rexford Industrial's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mikayla Lynch, Director of Investor Relations and Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Mikayla Lynch, Director of Investor Relations and Capital Markets

Thank you, and welcome to Rexford Industrial's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. In addition to yesterday's earnings release, we posted a supplemental package and earnings presentation in the Investor Relations section on our website to support today's remarks. As a reminder, management's remarks and responses to your questions may contain forward-looking statements as defined by federal securities laws, which are based on certain assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties outlined in our 10-K and other SEC filings. As such, actual results may differ, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements in the future. We'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures on today's call. Our earnings presentation and supplemental package provide GAAP reconciliations as well as an explanation of why these measures are useful to investors. Joining me today are our Chief Operating Officer, Laura Clark; and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Fitzmaurice; our co-CEOs, Michael Frankel and Howard Schwimmer will join us for the Q&A session following prepared remarks. It's my pleasure to now introduce Laura Clark. Laura?

Laura Elizabeth Clark, Chief Operating Officer

Thank you, Mikayla, and thank you all for joining us today. I'd like to start by thanking our Rexford team for your exceptional work and for delivering strong second quarter results, in line with our expectations. In the quarter, we executed 1.7 million square feet of leases, including lease up of four repositioning and redevelopment projects. Net effective and cash leasing spreads for comparable leases were in line with expectations at 21% and 8%, respectively. Embedded rent steps in our executed leases averaged 3.7%, up 10 basis points from last quarter. Healthy tenant retention and new leasing activity drove increased same-property occupancy and positive net absorption in the quarter. We ended the quarter with same property occupancy at 96.1%, an increase of 40 basis points sequentially and net absorption was a positive 220,000 square feet. Additionally, the strength of our tenant base and the critical nature of our infill locations was reflected in de minimis levels of bad debt in the quarter at only 6 basis points of revenue. In regard to the current market environment, while leasing activity remains steady and tenant health continues to be solid, macroeconomic and tariff uncertainty are still impacting some tenant decision-making. This is putting some pressure on overall demand, impacting rent levels and lease-up time frames. In the quarter, market rents across Rexford's portfolio declined approximately 3.5% sequentially and 12.8% year-over-year. Despite these market dynamics, our portfolio continues to exhibit relative strength when compared to the broader market. The standout quality of our portfolio and the operational excellence of our team is positioning us to capture incremental demand in the near and long term. By way of example, we continue to execute on the lease-up of repositioning and redevelopment projects, unlocking significant embedded growth. In the quarter and subsequent to quarter end, we executed 520,000 square feet of leases out of repositioning and redevelopment projects, which includes Turnbull Canyon Road in the San Gabriel Valley, Balboa Avenue in San Diego and Coronado Street in North Orange County. This brings total year-to-date repositioning and redevelopment lease-up activity to over 900,000 square feet, representing over $16 million of annualized NOI. Year-to-date, we have stabilized seven repositioning and redevelopment projects achieving a 7.4% unlevered stabilized yield on total investment. In addition, further demonstrating the demand for our highly functional and superior quality portfolio, we currently have leasing activity on approximately 80% of our vacant spaces. This is consistent with prior quarters and up significantly when compared to a year ago when activity on our vacant spaces was about 60%. In regard to transaction activity, we sold two properties totaling $82 million, bringing year-to-date dispositions to $134 million at a weighted average cap rate in the low 4% range achieving an unlevered IRR of 11.9%. Looking forward, we have approximately $54 million of dispositions under contract or accepted offer, which are subject to customary closing conditions. Separately, while we have no acquisitions under contract or accepted offer today, we are actively pursuing a range of potential near-term opportunities to accretively recycle disposition proceeds. In closing, over the long term, we remain confident that our irreplaceable infill Southern California portfolio will continue to benefit from persistent and growing supply constraints coupled with demand from the nation's largest regional zone of consumption and the 11th largest economy in the world. These superior long-term fundamentals are the foundation of our value creation business model that drives shareholder value. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Fitz.

Michael P. Fitzmaurice, Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Laura, and thank you all for joining us. Second quarter results were in line with our expectations. Core FFO was $0.59 per share, representing a $0.01 increase over the prior quarter when excluding onetime termination revenue that was recognized in the first quarter. The key driver for the increase was lower bad debt expense demonstrating our strong tenant health. We are reaffirming our full year 2025 core FFO outlook of $2.37 to $2.41 per share. Compared to the prior quarter, we now expect lower interest expense due to achieving a more favorable interest rate on our $400 million term loan and higher capitalized interest, offset by some delays in rent commencements. Our remaining underlying assumptions are unchanged. I'd like to take a moment to highlight the embedded growth opportunity within our portfolio, which continues to be substantial, totaling $195 million of incremental cash NOI, representing growth of 28%. Contractual rent steps are expected to generate approximately $105 million of incremental NOI, providing a steady and predictable source of growth. Our repositioning and redevelopment projects in process or in lease-up are projected to contribute an additional $70 million of incremental NOI, reflecting our value creation strategy. In addition, this does not capture the upside embedded in our future pipeline, which totals over 3 million square feet. And lastly, today, our cash mark-to-market for our portfolio stands at 3%, contributing about $20 million of incremental NOI to our embedded growth profile. Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with over $1.8 billion of liquidity, including $560 million of cash and a low leverage balance sheet with net debt to EBITDA of 4x. We continue to prioritize allocating capital toward our repositioning and redevelopment projects and opportunities to recycle capital into accretive acquisitions that meet our underwriting criteria. During the quarter, we successfully closed the recast of our credit facility, extending duration, increasing capacity and reducing interest expense. Overall, our balance sheet continues to provide flexibility to execute on our strategy and to create long-term value. In closing, a big thank you to team Rexford. The teamwork, standard of excellence and commitment continue to be the foundation of our success. And with that, I'll turn the call back to the operator and open the line for questions.

Operator, Operator

I will now turn the call back over to Mikayla Lynch for our first question.

Mikayla Lynch, Director of Investor Relations and Capital Markets

Thanks, Julianne. Our first question comes from Craig Mailman at Citi.

Craig Allen Mailman, Analyst

Laura or Fitz, I just want to go over Page 30 on your materials. You guys are giving better disclosure about potential future repositioning and redevelopment starts. If you annualize the quarterly NOI you have in there, it's somewhere between $30 million and $32 million of potential NOI that's going to come offline by the end of '26. Can you just talk about the slower lease-up of projects under construction today? Should we think about that as being a pretty firm plan as we get to the end of '26 or what kind of variability could that be with some of that pushed into '27 or some of the '25 pushed into '26?

Michael P. Fitzmaurice, Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Look, I think that pipeline is somewhat fluid. It has changed quarter-to-quarter. But the biggest driver in that pipeline today is the Hertz asset, which we expect will expire that lease in the first quarter of March. That has about $8.6 million of ABR. From an NOI perspective, it's about $9 million or so. So that's going to have a significant impact of rent coming offline next year. Now in terms of our plan for Hertz, Laura, if you want to touch on what the plan is there.

Laura Elizabeth Clark, Chief Operating Officer

Yes, absolutely. Just a reminder on the Hertz asset in particular, this is an irreplaceable location. It's adjacent to LAX. We acquired this property from Hertz back in 2023. This was a sale leaseback. Hertz is moving to a centralized rental car facility at LAX when that facility is complete. It currently expires in March of '26. We're ready to start development. We're going to be able to deliver a 400,000 square foot building there. It will be one of one in the market, and we're really excited about being able to move forward with that value creation.

Mikayla Lynch, Director of Investor Relations and Capital Markets

Our next question comes from Samir Khanal at Bank of America.

Samir Upadhyay Khanal, Analyst

I guess, Mike, just help us understand how you think about that 3% cash mark-to-market going forward? Just trying to understand your view on that, sort of how that will trend over the next few quarters and what that impact could be on sort of the cash same-store growth going forward?

Laura Elizabeth Clark, Chief Operating Officer

Samir, this is Laura. Thanks for your question. Yes, in terms of the mark-to-market, currently, as you mentioned, the cash mark-to-market sits at 3%. The cadence of what that mark-to-market looks like over the next few quarters is going to depend on a number of factors, including market rent growth. It’s really important to remember that only about 15% of our portfolio rolls annually. So future leasing spreads and how that's going to impact and flow down through same property is going to be driven by the mix of units and properties that are rolling. The other thing to note is that Rexford's growth is not dependent upon mark-to-market. I think that’s the most important thing to note. We have significant embedded growth within the portfolio irrespective of what happens with the mark-to-market. We have $70 million of incremental NOI embedded in the portfolio from our repositioning and redevelopments that are in process or lease-up today. We also have strong growth from contractual embedded rent steps, which currently sit at 3.7% in the portfolio.

Mikayla Lynch, Director of Investor Relations and Capital Markets

Our next question comes from Blaine Heck at Wells Fargo.

Blaine Matthew Heck, Analyst

With respect to capital allocation, thus far, you've taken a more measured approach to acquisitions. In your commentary, it sounds like you might be more open to them. So I guess, are you seeing opportunities to invest at much higher cap rates than you have in the past? What's driving that increased appetite given that your cost of capital hasn't seemingly changed for the better? And it does seem like there's a clear opportunity to buy back shares at a much lower basis than where you issued on the forward. I guess, is that something you'd consider rather than the acquisition?

Laura Elizabeth Clark, Chief Operating Officer

Blaine, thanks for your question. In terms of capital allocation, our principles remain unchanged and intact. We're focused on allocating capital where we can drive cash flow accretion and net asset value. As we think about the various places that we can allocate capital, certainly repositioning and redevelopment continues to be a very attractive investment. It's allowing us to achieve double-digit incremental returns while we position properties to add value over the long term. As we think about acquisitions, we're continuing to evaluate acquisition opportunities that meet very stringent underwriting criteria. We are looking at opportunities where we can recycle capital, we can recycle disposition proceeds at higher yields, and that will also drive accretion, increase the quality of our portfolio and our cash flows. As a reminder, we've sold about $134 million of dispositions to date. We have $54 million under contract or accepted offer to date. And those disposition cap rates are in the low 4% range. This gives us an attractive source of capital for both repositioning and redevelopments as well as acquisitions.

Mikayla Lynch, Director of Investor Relations and Capital Markets

Our next question comes from Greg McGinniss from Scotiabank.

Greg Michael McGinniss, Analyst

I was hoping you could touch on the delays in rent commencements on the repositioning redevelopment front, kind of what you guys are assuming today, and what's giving you confidence in achieving the new target or the new assumption given the fact that you had the 80% interest this quarter, same as last quarter, but kind of leasing not getting across the finish line.

Laura Elizabeth Clark, Chief Operating Officer

Greg, thanks for your question. Yes, we actually feel good about the progress that we've made in terms of repositioning and redevelopment to date. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we've leased about 900,000 square feet. That leaves us with about 1.5 million square feet remaining through the end of the year. Our assumptions around rate commencement have been and continue to be very late in the year there. We have pushed out lease-up timing a bit by about one month on average, that's driven by the current market dynamics. But we do have activity on 80% of that 1.5 million square feet. Based on where we're seeing activity levels today, what we were able to execute in late June and into July, we feel really comfortable with our projections at this time.

Michael P. Fitzmaurice, Chief Financial Officer

Yes. I would echo those same sentiments. In an extreme case, Greg, if we didn't sign that 1.5 million square feet, it would only be an unfavorable $0.01 impact for our guide.

Mikayla Lynch, Director of Investor Relations and Capital Markets

Our next question comes from Nick Thillman from Baird.

Nicholas Patrick Thillman, Analyst

Maybe I wanted to touch on tenant behavior. Are you seeing any sort of shift on lease terms on length of term that people are doing or even just when they're approaching renewal activity? Are they taking longer to get back to you, any sort of change in behavior that you guys have noticed over the last 60 to 90 days, that would be helpful?

Laura Elizabeth Clark, Chief Operating Officer

Yes. Thanks for your question, Nick. In terms of lease term, lease terms held pretty steady in the 4- to 5-year range on average for Rexford, which is consistent with prior years. We've had really strong renewal activity, tenants are coming to us a bit earlier in terms of the renewals. It's interesting that we've seen a bit of a trend and an acceleration in early renewals; early renewals means those spaces that we are renewing that are up 6 months or earlier than their expiration. Just to put some numbers around that, year-to-date, early renewals stood at about 1.1 million square feet. If you look at the back half of last year, the third and fourth quarters of last year, we did about 600,000 square feet of early renewals. So essentially double. That tells us tenants need their space. They need to lock in that space, and I think it's a good indication of the strength of the businesses. They're thinking long term about their strategy and need to serve the infill markets.

Mikayla Lynch, Director of Investor Relations and Capital Markets

Our next question comes from Omotayo Okusanya from Deutsche Bank. Looks like we lost Tayo. Apologies for that. Our next question comes from Michael Griffin from Evercore ISI.

Michael Anderson Griffin, Analyst

I realize that market rent growth was down both sequentially and year-over-year, but I'm wondering if we can dig into that a little bit more. Maybe April was an outlier to the downside and things got better in May and June. I don't know if there are any numbers you can quantify or put around it. I'm just trying to get a sense of were things improving sequentially during the quarter? Or was it just all kind of impacted negatively on a year-over-year basis kind of agnostic of the month?

Laura Elizabeth Clark, Chief Operating Officer

Yes. I mean, I think it's tough to look at week-over-week or month-over-month changes in terms of market rents. We did see a decline in market rents sequentially and year-over-year. It’s important to remember what happened in the quarter. We started the quarter on April 2 with sweeping tariffs being announced, and throughout the quarter, there was tremendous volatility around tariff policy and when an expected resolution would occur. That certainly impacted, as we mentioned, some tenants’ decision-making being paused or delayed, which also impacted market rents. That said, we continue to execute leases, tenants are making decisions and we've made great progress on the repositioning redevelopment lease-up. It's also important to indicate where we're focused. We're focused on capturing demand and occupancy. In some cases, that has also impacted rent levels.

Mikayla Lynch, Director of Investor Relations and Capital Markets

Our next question comes from Mike Mueller from JPMorgan.

Michael William Mueller, Analyst

I think you mentioned a low 4s cap rate on recent asset sales. Just curious, how is that influenced, if at all, by user purchases? And if you're thinking of your comparable property with an at-market rent, what do you see as the ban to cap rates today?

Howard Schwimmer, Co-CEO

Mike, it's Howard. Good to hear your voice. We've really tried to sell assets and capitalize on some opportunities to achieve premium values. The user side of that is very important, and several of our transactions have been user sales in the quarter. We sold one property in Orange County to a company that was actually thinking forward. They're going to convert a site to battery storage and bought it, at the equivalent of about a 3.5% cap rate. There was a bit of term left and a few options for the tenant to extend, but it was an irreplaceable site, and they paid a premium for it. In terms of cap rates in the overall market, you asked about at-market leasing; they're still in the 5% zone, plus or minus, in terms of cap rates.

Mikayla Lynch, Director of Investor Relations and Capital Markets

Our next question comes from Omotayo Okusanya from Deutsche Bank.

Omotayo Tejumade Okusanya, Analyst

Sorry about that earlier. A quick question about occupancy. So at the end of 2Q, average occupancy was at 95.9%. Guidance is 95.5% to 96%. Just kind of curious, the back half of the year, why you don't expect occupancy to increase from current levels? Are there any additional fallouts, any kind of issues with bad debt, just kind of curious why the occupancy outlook is not a little bit higher given where you are at 2Q?

Michael P. Fitzmaurice, Chief Financial Officer

Sure. Thanks for the question, Tayo. Correct. We ended the second quarter at 96.1%. We do expect some deceleration in the second half of the year. Our guide again is 95.5% to 96%. The driver of the deceleration is really planned move-outs within our same property portfolio. It was expected in part of our guide. As far as bad debt goes in the second half of the year, it's a bit structural. Last year for the second half of 2024, we had very low bad debt of about $1 million or so. We have kept our reserve at about the same level for the second half of this year at about 70 basis points. So it's $1 million versus $4 million. That’s also some of the deceleration that could be seen in same-property NOI as well.

Mikayla Lynch, Director of Investor Relations and Capital Markets

Our next question comes from Brendan Lynch from Barclays.

Brendan James Lynch, Analyst

Having leasing activity on 80% of your vacant properties. I understand this is up from 65% a year ago. Maybe you could disaggregate that increase from tenants that are just taking a longer time to make decisions versus an actual increase in demand? And maybe any color that you could provide around that in terms of conversion that you've had...

Laura Elizabeth Clark, Chief Operating Officer

Can you repeat the end of your question, Brendan? You cut out.

Brendan James Lynch, Analyst

Sorry about that. Just any details on conversion rates in the past?

Laura Elizabeth Clark, Chief Operating Officer

Yes, absolutely. We have activity on about 80% of our vacant spaces today. In looking at conversion levels, we can use a repositioning redevelopment from last quarter as an example. So if we look at where we had activity last quarter on repositioning redevelopments, about two-thirds of that activity has either leased or is still in negotiations, and we expect to convert to leasing. We also executed a couple of leases on repositioning redevelopments last quarter that had no activity when we reported last quarter. Overall, conversion is taking a bit more time as indicated by some longer lease-up assumptions. What we're seeing is the majority of our activity is converting or expected to convert into executed leases.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from John Kim at BMO.

John P. Kim, Analyst

This quarter, you've taken on redevelopment yield expectations by 50 basis points at the midpoint. I was wondering if that was driven mostly by the change in rent expectations and what your hurdle rate is for new redevelopments?

Michael P. Fitzmaurice, Chief Financial Officer

The driver behind that was a mix issue. We had two projects that stabilized during the quarter, Turnbull which was a 9.2% stabilized yield and also Via Burton, which is a redevelopment that was at a 6% yield. We added three projects, Cabot, Figueroa, and Van Nuys, one of our redevelopments, and those were a bit lower yields. In terms of the incremental yields that we're experiencing on the products that we stabilize year-to-date, which is about 7% or so, we're at 19% on an incremental return basis. That’s why, as Laura noted earlier, in terms of our priorities for capital allocation; that's where the highest risk-adjusted return is today, and that's where a lot of those dollars in our balance sheet continue to be deployed.

Mikayla Lynch, Director of Investor Relations and Capital Markets

Our next question comes from Vikram Malhotra from Mizuho.

Vikram L. Malhotra, Analyst

I guess I want to clarify something. You had outlined $15 million coming out, $15 million going in. I just want to focus on the dollars going out, the $15 million based on what you've done thus far into the second half. It seems like there's more than $15 million; if you could clarify that? If you add up sort of the planned redevelopments for later in '25 and '26, it seems like, on my math, it's like $45 million or plus coming out over the next 1.5 years coupled with sort of negative rent spreads likely and higher vacancy across the market. It just seems like the growth setup for '26 is a lot lower than we're expecting. If you could help us think through that.

Michael P. Fitzmaurice, Chief Financial Officer

Yes. At this point, I think we’re ready to comment on '26. For 2025, we had messaged from the start of the year that we're going to have about $15 million of NOI come offline for 2025 starts. That is still consistent today; it’s actually a little bit down from last quarter, it’s right around $13 million as we execute on a couple of short-term renewals. In terms of what is going to come offline in 2026, we've put some new disclosure out there to give you some guideposts on what those 2026 starts could potentially look like and also some guideposts around costs. I'd tell you that the pool is fluid. We have a strategic plan for every single one of our assets. Sometimes it's multiple plans where we could release as is or reposition and redevelop. That future pipeline is somewhat fluid. It is largely driven by the Hertz lease that we mentioned earlier when we were talking to Craig about it. So it’s too early to tell you what exactly is going to come offline, but at this point, we're okay giving you guideposts. We will continue to give you more guidance around what comes offline next year, including what the capitalized interest impact could be.

Mikayla Lynch, Director of Investor Relations and Capital Markets

Our last question comes from Craig Mailman at Citi.

Craig Allen Mailman, Analyst

I just want to go back to the commentary, maybe a couple of follow-ups here in my one question. Laura, on the 80% activity, is any of that double counting like one tenant looking at three of your spaces? Or is it all unique interest in each asset? Also, you had mentioned L.A. is a little bit spotty with pockets of weakness on demand and rents versus others that aren't. Could you kind of bucket your portfolio? I don't know if you guys look at like percent of NOI or percent of square feet, or that’s maybe in the strongest submarkets, kind of moderate strength submarket to the below-average submarkets as we think about just L.A. in general, given your SoCal exposures kind of more broad than some others?

Laura Elizabeth Clark, Chief Operating Officer

Yes, Craig, thanks for the follow-up questions. In terms of your first question around the 80%, yes, that's all unique. We're not double counting interest if we have a tenant that's looking at a few spaces. In terms of color around markets and performance, a few comments there. What we are seeing generally across all submarkets within infill Southern California is that our smaller spaces, those less than 50,000 square feet continue to be relatively stable in the market. We continue to see solid demand there, and rent levels have been the strongest in those spaces of 50,000 square feet or smaller. Our average tenant size is 26,000 square feet in the portfolio. It speaks to the quality and functionality of our space in the market. In terms of submarkets where we're seeing pockets of weakness, there’s more supply in the Mid-Counties market, particularly in the 100,000 to 200,000 square foot range. There's some weakness but we had some leasing activity in that submarket in that size range this quarter. Other pockets of weakness might be Central L.A. and North Orange County, but we're seeing overall activity increases as we got to the end of the quarter. So those are generally what we're seeing from a market perspective.

Michael S. Frankel, Co-CEO

Yes, Craig, it's great to hear you today. It's Michael here. I’d like to add and answer your question. Consistent with our strategy, about 75% of our portfolio is generally positioned within Greater L.A., Orange and the Ontario submarkets. Over time, we'll find that those are tremendous markets. What we're seeing more recently is that different submarkets are adjusting at different time frames; they’re not all adjusting equally to the post-pandemic rent increase and the uncertainty that has resulted post-pandemic. We’re just continuing that adjustment, but it's not at the same time across all submarkets. We're witnessing that variability today. The markets where Rexford is present, our strategy is to own the best locations within the strongest infill market in the country, possibly the world, and to substantially outcompete by having the highest quality product in those submarkets. I believe we are well positioned in terms of the relative strength of those submarkets, and over time, that will prove itself out.

Mikayla Lynch, Director of Investor Relations and Capital Markets

This will conclude today's Q&A session. I would like to turn the call over to Laura Clark for closing remarks.

Laura Elizabeth Clark, Chief Operating Officer

Thanks, Mikayla. In closing, Rexford's differentiated portfolio and entrepreneurial team drove solid second quarter results. Our irreplaceable infill portfolio, substantial embedded NOI growth, and value creation strategy position us to deliver significant shareholder value. Thank you all again for joining us today.

Operator, Operator

This concludes Rexford Industrial's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. You may now disconnect.