Earnings Call Transcript - XP Q1 2026

Andre Parize, Investor Relations Officer

Good evening, everyone. I'm Andre Parize, Investor Relations Officer at XP, and thank you for joining us, and welcome to our First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Today's presentation will be delivered by our CEO, Thiago Maffra, and our CFO, Victor Mansur. Right after the presentation, they will both be available for the Q&A session. Before we begin, please see the legal disclaimer on Page 2 of today's presentation for information regarding forward-looking statements. The presentation is available for download on our Investor Relations website with further details in the SEC Filings section of our IR website. To begin the presentation, I will now turn it over to Thiago Maffra. Good evening, Maffra.

Thiago Maffra, CEO

Thank you, Andre. Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining us for the first quarter 2026 earnings call. Let's begin by reviewing the key highlights of the quarter. Client assets combining AUM and AUA reached BRL 2.1 trillion, which represents a 21% year-over-year growth. We ended the period with 18,300 advisers, up 1% year-over-year, while our active client base totaled BRL 4.8 million, a 2% year-over-year increase. This quarter, gross revenues came in at BRL 4.9 billion, up 8% year-over-year. EBT also grew 8% to BRL 1.4 billion and net income reached BRL 1.3 billion, rising 7% year-over-year. On profitability, our ROE achieved 21.7% for the quarter. Our capital ratio remained at a comfortable 20.7%. More importantly, these results reflect our ability to grow our business while maintaining disciplined capital and risk management. I would also like to highlight that today, we are announcing a new buyback program of BRL 1 billion. As of now, we have executed almost half of the current BRL 1 billion open program. Additionally, we are also declaring BRL 500 million in dividends to be paid in June. Victor will provide more details in his presentation. Now moving to our diluted EPS. It grew 9% year-over-year, outpacing net income growth. We entered 2026 with solid momentum, largely driven by the global macro environment as a weaker U.S. dollar and a rotation toward non-U.S. assets boosted emerging markets inflows, which helped improve Brazil market dynamics and enabled us to sustain the growth momentum built in the second half of last year. However, as you know, the environment changed in March. Increased global volatility pressured local market sentiment, while domestic credit spreads widened at the same time, driven by technical factors. These developments were external to our underlying performance. Excluding these external factors, we would have delivered even stronger results, achieving double-digit growth. We saw this credit spread trend continue into April. However, we now see a better balance between buyers and sellers in the market, leading spreads into a more stable phase. Despite this widening in April, we do not expect an impact on the same magnitude as we saw in the first quarter. That said, we still see our business growing double digits this year. Additionally, we are now seeing the early stage of an interest rate easing cycle. While the pace of easing is expected to be more gradual than previously anticipated, rates are still at high levels. And despite global uncertainties, there is still room for further cuts. This ongoing easing cycle, even if slower, supports our business momentum as this positively impacts investors' risk appetite and turnover velocity. The short-term volatility we mentioned earlier may have briefly slowed our growth momentum towards the end of this quarter. Even so, we are confident we can return to double-digit growth supported by stronger execution across key verticals and a more diversified revenue base. Our unique scale and differentiated retail investments platform provides a competitive edge unmatched by any other player in the market. In addition, we now operate within a much broader ecosystem and our corporate segment has definitely reached new standards that extend beyond pure investment banking. Together, these strengths helped partially offset the impact of higher volatility referenced earlier, reinforcing retail investments and corporate as important drivers of growth and diversification. Finally, the powerful combination of service excellence, strong client relationships and financial performance, together with a sales force that has aligned incentives and robust capabilities corroborates our conviction that disciplined execution backed by governance and technology will drive our performance. Ultimately, our ability to execute this strategy is what will enable us to achieve our long-term objectives in all our divisions regardless of the current macroeconomic environment. Now moving to the next slide. In the first quarter of 2026, our total client assets combined with assets under management from our asset management business and AUA from our fund administration business totaled over BRL 2.1 trillion, representing a 21% growth year-over-year. We are strategically positioned for our next growth phase and remain focused on our ambition to become Brazil's leader in investments by 2033. To achieve that goal, despite external uncertainties, we are executing a strategy built to consistently deliver double-digit growth. We are also constantly investing in our ecosystem and advisers in strengthening what is already Brazil's largest and most sophisticated investment platform. We are the only player that can lead the democratization of access to first-class financial service, supporting clients with a holistic approach built on financial and wealth planning, delivered at scale and with strong governance. The market has recognized these capabilities as we were recently named for the eighth consecutive year, the best financial advisory platform. With that, let's move to the next slide. On the left-hand side of the slide, you can see how net new money related to client assets performed at the start of 2026. In Q1, we posted BRL 19 billion of organic retail net new money, while corporate and institutional came in at negative BRL 4 billion, bringing the total for the quarter to approximately BRL 14 billion. So we once again reached our guidance of around BRL 20 billion in retail net new money per quarter. During the first quarter of the year, clients received FGC-related inflows. It's important to highlight that these payments were not included in the net new money calculation as the related adjustments were made exclusively to our client asset base. As you can see on the right-hand side of the slide, the high retention levels of roughly 80% following these FGC-related inflows reflect the consistent execution of our advisers and the strength of our brand. Related to that, and as we mentioned last quarter, our NPS was impacted by one-off effects related to credit events and Banco Master. They temporarily affected a specific group of clients and consequently, our overall NPS. First quarter's NPS is still impacted by them due to a calculation methodology using a moving average. However, we are already on a consistent recovery path and more recent indicators were positive with NPS coming around 70. We expect to return to historical levels by year-end, demonstrating the strength of our brand and the trust clients place in our platform. Lastly, I would like to take a closer look at our retail strategy and share a bit more detail about this area of the business. Investments, our core franchise, remains solid, supported by healthy underlying trends and continues to serve as a key driver of our results. We are further strengthening what we view as the market's best and most comprehensive product platform while also improving adviser productivity. This progress is underpinned by excellence in relationship management and a more intelligent, disciplined allocation process. Following our refined client segmentation, we developed tailored servicing models for each segment, ensuring our approach is aligned with distinct needs for each client group. In retail clients, we have developed a new value proposition grounded in goal-based investing and managed portfolios. With that, we are already seeing improvements in this segment, supported by margin accretive dynamics. Our strategy is to extend this approach to other client layers using technology, process and governance as key enablers to scale in a profitable way. In high income, our core segment, we delivered a distinctive value proposition, having been true pioneers in democratizing access to financial and wealth planning in Brazil. In addition to our differentiated advisory model, we were the first player to offer a truly agnostic servicing model, enabling us to address this stated client demand. We also continue to expand our sales channels, invest in new products and services and enhance the client journey by providing the best tools available in the market. In private banking, we continue to gain market share by enhancing our offering and leveraging our broader ecosystem to address clients' needs more comprehensively. We have evolved into a full-service wealth manager, serving clients' both individual and corporate needs, supported by a robust product platform and a highly skilled team. As our private banking franchise matures, we are becoming increasingly well positioned to compete with larger players in this segment. In addition, our private segment has become a fundamental part of our ecosystem, serving as an important source of cross-selling opportunities and referrals for our other businesses. Among the three growth drivers that directly impact our business, take rates are the only variable that we do not control 100% as product mix and asset turnover are driven by investor sentiment and market momentum. On the other hand, our other growth drivers are fully within our control and support our long-term journey. We have also partially offset this take rate effect through revenue diversification, growth in advisory, fee-based models and expansion into new verticals. Before I hand over to Victor, I want to quickly comment on the Form 6-K we just released. Today, we are announcing that Gustavo Alejo has been appointed as XP's new CFO. This is part of a thoughtful and well-planned transition, marking a new chapter for XP as the bank continues to grow within our ecosystem. Alejo is a seasoned executive with a remarkable track record and his expertise will be instrumental to our expansion strategy. We are truly pleased to welcome him to our team. I also want to take this moment to express my gratitude to Victor. Over more than a decade, he has been a central figure in XP's journey. His dedication and contributions have been fundamental to the growth and development of this company. Victor will remain part of the XP ecosystem, supporting us in new ventures ahead. I sincerely thank him for everything he has built here. I wish him every success in what comes next. Thank you, Victor.

Victor Mansur, CFO

I would like to thank Maffra, Benchimol, all our partners and shareholders for the trust they deposited in me throughout all those years. I have been at the company for almost 15 years and time passed quickly when we are building something that matters. That's what we have done at XP, changing the way Brazilians invest and relate to money. After almost 15 years, I decided to step down, but we will continue as a partner, member of the Board of several investments in our portfolio and contributing to the XP ecosystem in new ways. This transition was careful, planned, and XP's long-term vision always guided our decisions. I would also like to thank the people who made this journey possible, especially all the incredible team I got to work very closely with during my tenure as CFO. To each of you, thank you. It's been a genuine honor. I'm sure that the best is still ahead. Thanks. And now let's review our financial performance. I would like to begin by noting that in this quarter, we are introducing our new managerial P&L and revenue breakdown that more accurately reflect how we operate the company. Under this framework, we are organizing our business lines into two main segments: retail and wholesale. Along with this change, the institutional business has been incorporated into the wholesale division, aligning the reporting structure with the profile of clients we serve within this segment. Additionally, accompanying the final phase of restructuring, the other revenue line has become less relevant over the years and ceased to exist, being incorporated in the net interest margin across our business lines. If this, we provide a clearer and more consistent view of our operational structure and revenue generation. As a part of the same process, our proprietary funds were transferred to the bank structuring. Consequently, we will no longer present our hold tax adjustments. Instead, we now report our managerial results with other tax-equivalent reclassifications, consistent with the approach already adopted by other market players. This change improves the understanding of our results and aligns market views more closely with the way we manage the company. All figures shown throughout this presentation have been retrospectively adjusted to preserve comparability across periods. Finally, it's important to note that these new adjustments are IFRS compliant with no changes to our gross revenue, net income or capital metrics. Given that context, let's now move to the quarter results. Total gross revenue in the first quarter reached BRL 4.9 billion, up 8% year-over-year and down 7% quarter-over-quarter. The year growth was driven by advisory, retail new verticals and other retail lines with float expanding at a rapid pace. The Wholesale Banking division also delivered growth year-over-year. Now let's move to retail revenue. Retail revenue totaled BRL 3.8 billion in the quarter, representing a 10% growth year-over-year and a 2% decline quarter-over-quarter, reflecting the impact in corporate credit in Brazil already explained before. Building on the market momentum that began in the second half of 2025, we saw an increase in equity volumes, driven by higher ADTV in equities and futures. Consequently, equity revenues increased 13% quarter-over-quarter and 22% when compared to the same period of last year, reaching almost BRL 1.2 billion. As a result, equity revenue increased its share of total gross revenue breakdown, both year-over-year and versus the prior quarter, reaching 31% in the first quarter of 2026. Also, retail benefited from strong contributions from float and new verticals, which are reported in the other retail line and gained representativeness during the quarter. Now let's move on to the next slide, where we'll talk through how our wholesale banking is evolving. As we mentioned earlier, we now include our institutional business in the wholesale segment. Taken together, these three business lines grew 26% year-over-year. This same market figures showed a reduced volume of tax and fixed income offers in the first quarter of '26. If that, Issuer Services revenues were down following the same rationale of retail fixed income. On Corporate segment, we posted another solid result, reaching almost BRL 500 million in revenues. Due to high volatility, we were able to serve our clients with more trading solutions with derivatives and FX boosting revenues. This reinforced the consolidation of the franchise, which developed meaningfully through the years, became an important part of the ecosystem and an important driver in terms of growth and diversification. Finally, our institutional business grew both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. This segment, the same as retail, also benefited from higher trading volumes during the quarter. Now let's shift our focus to SG&A and efficiency ratios. As mentioned earlier, we are introducing a new disclosure methodology, which is better aligned to market peers and increases our results comparability. We can find the reconciliation and additional details about the new methodology in the appendix. If that, our SG&A totaled BRL 1.6 billion in this quarter, increased 14% year-over-year and declining 6% quarter-over-quarter. On the right-hand side of this slide, our last 12 months efficiency ratio was 34.6%, representing a year-over-year increase of 100 basis points. The short-term increase was caused by market events that temporarily impacted our revenues in the first quarter, as previously explained. As commented before, we expect to see a normalization of the ratios throughout the year, ending 2026 as a flattish number when compared to 2025. Move on to EBT now. Our adjusted EBT totaled BRL 1.4 billion in the first quarter, up 8% year-over-year and down 14% quarter-over-quarter. The adjusted EBT margin was 30%, stable versus the prior year and lower quarter-over-quarter. As mentioned in the previous slide, market events impacted revenues and therefore, our EBITDA and EBT margin in the first quarter of 2026. On the next slide, we will see our adjusted net income. Adjusted net income in the first quarter totaled BRL 1.3 billion, representing a 7% increase year-over-year and remaining roughly stable sequentially. Net margins were 27.8% in 1Q '26, down 30 bps year-over-year and 122 bps higher sequentially. Let's move on to the next slide to talk about capital management. I will start by discussing capital returns. During the first quarter of the year, we continued the execution of our share buyback program. And as of now, we have executed almost half of it. As Maffra mentioned earlier, today, we announced a new buyback program of BRL 1 billion and also the payment of BRL 500 million in dividends to be paid on June 18. Combining the dividends and the two buyback programs, we get to almost BRL 2.5 billion in capital distribution already announced in 2026. Now let's move on the second part of our capital management strategy on the next slide. Our adjusted diluted EPS increased approximately 9% year-over-year, reflecting the execution of our share buyback program. This allows our EPS to expand at a faster pace than net income. On the right-hand side of the slide, you can see our adjusted annualized ROTE and ROAE. Given our higher BIS ratio than last quarter, both metrics are lower this quarter than last quarter. If we were operating the business at 17.5% BIS ratio, which is the midpoint of our guidance, our ROTE and ROAE would have been around 30% and 24%, respectively. Let's move on to the next slide to give some additional details on our capital management. I would like to turn to our capital ratio and our risk-weighted assets. Before going through the numbers, I want to highlight that even in a quarter marked by elevated volatility across both local and international markets, our disciplined risk management approach translated into a well-controlled risk profile, lower VAR and flattish RWA. Our VAR declined sequentially, closing the quarter at 14 basis points, 3 basis points lower than prior quarter. Our RWA ended the first quarter at BRL 122 billion, up 3% quarter-over-quarter. Credit RWA remained essentially stable. Market RWA grew just 2% in the quarter, both expanding at a lower pace than our revenues. And the main trigger of expansion of risk was the operational risk-weighted assets. Despite the market dynamics we mentioned, our risk is under control, our balance sheet is sound, and we expect that to remain the case throughout the year, consistent with what we have communicated to the market. Finally, we closed the quarter with a BIS ratio of 20.7%, which is above our guidance of BIS ratio of 16% to 19% by the end of the year. As communicated last quarter, we entered 2026 with a comfortable capital position that gives us flexibility to navigate different scenarios and remain well positioned in any potential volatility coming from internal or external markets throughout the year, even though we know this is a higher capitalization level than the company requires to operate, and we are committed to reach our guidance by the end of the year. And with that, we will now move to the Q&A session.

Andre Parize, Investor Relations Officer

Okay. Now we're going to start the Q&A. The first question is from Tito Labarta, Goldman Sachs.

Tito Labarta, Analyst (Goldman Sachs)

Victor, good luck on your future endeavors. Thanks for all the help over the last few years. So maybe a couple of questions. Maybe just one, I guess, can you give a little bit more color, Victor, Maffra, on the decision to step down and the new incoming CFO, just to understand a little bit more some of the rationale behind that. And then second question, you talked a little bit about the widening of the credit spreads. But just to understand, do you expect that to recover maybe completely in 2Q? Would that take a little bit longer? Just to think about how that could impact your revenues for not just 2Q, but also for the rest of the year?

Thiago Maffra, CEO

Thank you for the question, Tito. Regarding the first question about why Victor is moving, this transition is something we've been discussing for a few months, or about half a year. We wanted to find someone with more background in banking and in the banking products we've been developing for both individuals and for capital markets in the wholesale bank. It was a well-planned transition. Given the change at Santander, there was an opportunity to bring in Gustavo Alejo, who has more than 30 years of experience in corporate, in credit, in corporate finance and as a CFO. He has the background we were looking for. Victor is an important partner of the company. He has been with us for 15 years, will remain a partner, and will help us with new ventures in the future. On the second question, regarding credit losses: we did not record credit losses because our positions are mainly tradable fixed income that we mark to market. Since the start of the war the credit market widened. In March spreads widened even for AAA and AA names, which caused mark-to-market losses, although most of these losses were unrealized. We don't expect the market to recover in Q2. In April spreads widened again, although much less than in March. We do not expect any impact on Q2 because our ecosystem and other business lines will more than offset what we lost in April. In May spreads stabilized, but we do not expect them to begin closing this quarter. For the year, we do not anticipate further impacts on top-line growth, which is why we remain confident in delivering double-digit growth. If you exclude the one-off spread widening in Q1, our growth would likely be in the low teens, very close to plan, because apart from the credit spread widening and weakness in the DCM primary market, all other business lines are performing in line with our annual plan. So we are confident we can resume higher growth in Q2.

Tito Labarta, Analyst (Goldman Sachs)

Great, that's helpful, Maffra. If I may, one quick follow-up on the management transition. I know you've spoken about capital ratios, excess capital to return, and that you have a banking license, but investors still tend to view you more as an investment platform. Should we begin to think of you more as a bank? Does this signal any major change in strategy we should account for, or is it simply that you need someone to manage capital requirements and related matters? I'd like to understand how that plays into the strategy.

Thiago Maffra, CEO

We don't have any change on our strategy. So it's the same thing we have been talking for the past three years. So no major change, no big change. It's more of the same looking forward. So no change on the strategy.

Andre Parize, Investor Relations Officer

Okay. Next question is from Thiago Batista, UBS.

Thiago Bovolenta Batista, Analyst (UBS)

So first of all... I have two questions, to be honest. The first one, when I look for the capital distribution, historically, you paid half in dividends and half as buyback. So how do you think on the future distribution? How do you think between these two types of distribution, buyback and dividends? And the second one, on the DCM side, I know that there's a lot of moving parts here. So yield curve increased a lot, spreads are higher than average, but we also are seeing inflows in the fixed income funds. So how do you think about the DCM business? I know that it's very tough to view, very tough to estimate the performance of this business. But how are you guys seeing the DCM business until the end of the year?

Victor Mansur, CFO

I'm going to take the first one here and the second will be Maffra. First, on capital distribution. I think we are in the middle of the year. We all can do the math on how much cash we need to devolve to shareholders should be inside our guidance. I think for now, more than half of what was announced, actually, BRL 2 billion will be buybacks and BRL 500 million are dividends. I think for our mix of shareholders and the price of the stock now, that's the best mix, and we are going to keep this pace over the year to get to the end of the guidance. And exactly what would be the combination between one and the other depends on the stock level and the market environment and then we go. But for now, more than 75% is buybacks.

Thiago Maffra, CEO

Yes. On the second part of your question, as you mentioned, there are a lot of moving parts here. But as I already mentioned, we saw the widening credit spreads continuing in April in a smaller size than March. In May, we start to see a more stable market, okay? So we start to see some buyers in the market. But if you look at the net flow of the credit funds, there are still redemptions, so they're still negative. But on the other side, clients are holding all-time high levels of cash, okay? So we believe if the global market stabilizes, we believe we'll see the beginning — maybe the beginning of the spread compression in the next months. So that's the view we have right now looking at the numbers and the flows, okay? We are starting to see retail clients buying corporate bonds. That's something that didn't happen since, I would say, January or February. So we have early signs of a more stable market, but it's too early to say if we will see compression. I don't expect compression in Q2, okay? So it's more for Q3 or Q4.

Andre Parize, Investor Relations Officer

Okay. Next question is from Eduardo Rosman, BTG.

Eduardo Rosman, Analyst (BTG)

Two questions here. The first is a follow-up on the top line, right? I think Maffra mentioned that you guys are still confident about growing double digits. But in case things are a little bit slower, can you do anything else on the cost side to compensate? So that would be the question number one. And question number two, can you give us an update on the movement to the fixed base fee? How is that evolving? How are IFAs reacting and embracing the change?

Victor Mansur, CFO

Rosman, thank you for your question. I think the first one here. The compression in efficiency ratio in the first quarter was due to the softness in revenues that Maffra already commented on in the fixed income and issuer services. I felt that would be flattish year-over-year. And I think over the year, if the scenario starts deteriorating, we are committed to not lose efficiency because of costs. So there is margin. Of course, the initial plan is to keep our investments. But if needed, we are committed to deliver a flattish efficiency ratio over the year and keep the pace of the revenue.

Thiago Maffra, CEO

Yes. On your second question, for sure, you have seen that we are doing advertisement and marketing campaigns about the multiple models that we have today. So we are basically the only house to offer to our customers all different models to serve our clients and the way they pay for that, okay? So today, I would say, about 25% of our total individual AUC is under flat fees or fee-based models. So it's growing. We believe in three to four years, it will probably be half of the AUC when you look at consulting model or fee-based model. So these models are growing, and we expect them to reach about 50% in the next three to five years.

Andre Parize, Investor Relations Officer

Okay. Next question is from Jorge Kuri from Morgan Stanley. Okay. So we'll go to next one. So the next one is Eric Ito from Bradesco BBE.

Eric Ito, Analyst (Bradesco BBE)

Thank you for the partnership and wish you all the best for the future. I have two on my side as well. First is a follow-up on the impact from the yield curve. So if you could give us just to quantify in the quarter, how much was the impact here? And if we could also give us some color on any potential one-off impacts from the FGC payments or allocation on this product? And if you could also help us understand which products are the clients putting money into with the reimbursement from FGC? Just to help us understand what we can expect for the fixed income take rate going forward? And then my second one is on the warehouse strategy here. If you could give us some color and recall what's the average duration that the credit stays in your warehouse? How should we think about distribution versus retention going forward? Any update or change in the strategy here?

Victor Mansur, CFO

Eric, thanks for your question. First of all, about the interest rate level. I think despite the business impacts in terms of macro tailwind and product allocation, when you look at the effects in the company, it's actually better for several business lines that are floating return or on capital and then you go, as we commented, float inside the retail other revenues was one of the drivers of growth inside of retail. About the allocation of FGC premium, you're going to see that in the prepayments inside of our balance sheet. And just important to remember that there is no P&L effect in that. Okay. The last part about where the clients are allocating money. I think at the beginning of the year, we talked a lot about the positive tailwind we had in Brazil and overall markets. And I think if the war and the easing cycle coming from 300 to 70 basis points, clients moved back to fixed income and short-term fixed income. So I think we're basically at the same case we were in the second semester of 2025, almost all of the cash goes to short-term fixed income. Duration of the warehouse portfolio, I think that was the last question. It's the same. It's hopefully between 3 to 6 months. Of course, this widening in the credit spread may change a little bit the dynamics, but that is our base case, and we should keep this way over the year.

Andre Parize, Investor Relations Officer

Next question is from Arnon Shirazi from Citi.

Arnon Shirazi, Analyst (Citi)

Last quarter, a question regarding the NPS. We saw that it was low in the fourth quarter, now decreasing in the first quarter. We know that it's tracking in the last six months, but still low at 61%. I want to get a view on this on the recent trends and if you expect to be better in the next months or quarters.

Thiago Maffra, CEO

Yes, that's a good question. As we use a moving average here, the lowest number was in December and early January. So Q1 was the worst moving average. In Q2, you see the number improving. And if we look at the number that we are right now, it's already at 70%. So we are almost back to the current view. But again, as we report a moving average, you see Q2 higher than Q1, but not at 70% yet. So probably in Q3, you see 70% plus and back to normal levels.

Andre Parize, Investor Relations Officer

Has come to an end. It will be more than a pleasure to answer any further questions. Just look for contact the IR team, and see you in the next quarter. Thank you so much for your participation. Bye.