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AGO · Assured Guaranty Ltd

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$74.70 -0.83 (-1.10%) At close · Aug 31
S&P 600 member Russell 1000 member Rebalance outlook locked
Market Cap
$3.29B
Shares
43.98M

Price & Indicators

Indicators
Price
Panels
Event markers
20d MA 50d MA 200d MA Earnings Filing Insider Congress Investor day
Close$75.53 Open$76.16 Day$74.51–76.80 52W close$73.20–92.18 Avg vol 30d360K Short int2.2M · 4.9% float · 5.8d Short vol38% Last earningsAug 6, 2026 DataJan 2020–Aug 2026 Filing10-Q · Aug 7

Up next

Next earnings call
Nov 5, 2026 Est · unconfirmed · in 9 wks
FQ3-26 quarter ends
~Sep 30, 2026 Est
Latest filing: 10-Q
filed Aug 7, 2026

AI Brief

Q1 FY26 earnings call · May 8, 2026
Q1 FY26

TL;DR. Assured Guaranty posted Q1 2026 adjusted operating income of $115 million ($2.50/share) and nearly doubled PVP to $73 million, while asset management adjusted operating income of $44 million was nearly four times the prior-year quarter's level.

Bullish
  • + Q1 2026 PVP of $73 million, almost twice Q1 2025's $39 million, with all three financial guarantee underwriting groups increasing year-over-year new
  • + U.S. public finance PVP rose 92% year-over-year to $48 million new
  • + Asset management segment adjusted operating income of $44 million, nearly four times Q1 2025's $12 million new
  • + Alternative investments portfolio inception-to-date annualized IRR of 12% at end of Q1 2026 new
  • + Recorded record per-share valuations of $128.61 adjusted operating shareholders' equity and $188.74 adjusted book value
  • + Returned $93 million to shareholders in Q1 2026, including $75 million of share repurchases and $18 million of dividends new
Bearish
  • − GAAP net income of $88 million ($1.91/share) was down from $176 million ($3.44/share) in Q1 2025 new
  • − Adjusted operating income of $115 million ($2.50/share) declined from $162 million ($3.18/share) in Q1 2025 new
  • − Financial Guaranty segment adjusted operating income fell to $102 million from $168 million in Q1 2025 new
  • − Annuity Reinsurance segment generated no adjusted operating income in Q1 2026 (—) new
  • − Weighted average diluted shares dropped to 45.4 million from 50.7 million, reflecting heavy buybacks that could face float constraints going forward new
  • − Management indicated the life reinsurance build-out could require up to roughly $1,500 million of capital over the next two years, creating capital allocation pressure new

AI-generated from the earnings call and 8-K · may contain errors · not investment advice

Equibles Rating

blended score · not investment advice
Overall
Neutral
SellHoldBuy
Technical Sell Momentum Very Weak Sentiment Neutral Fundamentals Strong Quant / Vol Low
Market backdrop VIX 14.9 · calm Equity put/call 0.70
Technical
price trend
Sell
50 / 200-day cross No cross
Price vs 200-day avg −9%
below
Price vs 50-day avg −6%
below
RSI (14) 39
neutral
MACD trend Positive
52-week position 12%
near low
Volume (OBV) Confirms
volume backs price
Momentum
relative strength
Very Weak
1-month return −9%
trailing
6-month return −12%
trailing
YTD return −16%
this year
Relative strength −25%
vs S&P · 6-mo
Sentiment
smart money
Neutral
Trend (MA cross) No cross
50d $80 › 200d $83 — 200d above 50d
Institutional flow Distributing
-0% holders QoQ · +58 funds added
Insider flow Flat
No net insider activity over 90 days
Short interest Rising
4.92% of float · ▲ +13.8% MoM · 5.8 days cover
Volume signal Normal
Volume near normal
Institution breadth Multi-yr high
371 holders — near 3-yr high, broad support
Squeeze score 57
elevated · 0–100
Fundamentals
Strong
Revenue growth +27%
Y/Y
EPS growth +49%
Y/Y
Valuation P/E 9.9
in line
Buyback $121.0M
remaining
Balance sheet $1.3B
net debt
Quant / Vol
risk profile
Low
Volatility 23%
annualized · 1-yr
Max drawdown −21%
past year
ATR 2.3%
of price · 14-day

Blended from price, momentum, positioning, fundamentals & volatility · daily-close · not investment advice. Market backdrop is context, not part of the score.

Guidance & track record

Latest guidance · from the 8-K filed May 7, 2026
Insurance reserve financings and securitizations gross exposure · 2027 $1.6B
Insurance reserve financings and securitizations net exposure · 2027 $1.3B
Prior guidance period ended · from the 8-K filed Apr 1, 2025
Insurance securitizations exposure · 2025 $1.2B – $1.5B

Guidance from company 8-Ks · delivered figures from as-reported statements · no analyst estimates involved.

Technicals

trend & momentum for long-term holders Sell
3 · 3 · 1
50 / 200-day cross
No cross Neutral
Price vs 200-day avg
−9% Bearish
Price vs 50-day avg
−6% Bearish
RSI (14)
39 Neutral
MACD trend
Positive Bullish
52-week position
12% Bearish
Volume (OBV)
Confirms Neutral
Market signals — smart money & positioning
Bearish · 2 of 6
Trend (MA cross) No cross
50d $80 › 200d $83 — 200d above 50d
Institutional flow Distributing
-0% holders QoQ · +58 funds added
Insider flow Flat
No net insider activity over 90 days
Short interest Rising
4.92% of float · ▲ +13.8% MoM · 5.8 days cover
Volume signal Normal
Volume near normal
Institution breadth Multi-yr high
371 holders — near 3-yr high, broad support
Price context
position in its 52-week range
Range low $73 Now $76 · 12% Range high $92
vs 200-day avg -9% vs 50-day avg -6%

Illustrative technical + ownership context — a signal mix, not investment advice.

Key metrics

the company's own KPIs, from written earnings releases and filings
Metric Latest Period YoY
Financial Guaranty segment adjusted operating income non-GAAP $85M Second Quarter 2026 filing —
Adjusted book value (ABV) non-GAAP $8.36B As of June 30, 2026 —
GAAP → non-GAAP reconciliation
GAAP Adjusted operating shareholders' equity $5.72B
-$201M Less: DAC
+$188M Plus: Net present value of estimated net future revenue
+$3.31B Plus: Net deferred revenues on insurance contracts
-$658M Plus taxes
= Adjusted book value (ABV) $8.36B
Adjusted book value (ABV) per share non-GAAP $189.72 As of June 30, 2026 —
Adjusted operating income per share non-GAAP $1.23 Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 —
Adjusted operating shareholders' equity non-GAAP $5.72B As of June 30, 2026 —
GAAP → non-GAAP reconciliation
GAAP Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL $5.56B
-$52M Non-credit impairment-related fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
-$20M Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
+$258M Unrealized gains (losses) on investment portfolio
+$5M Fair value gains (losses) of freestanding derivatives in the Annuity Reinsurance segment
+$1M Fair value gains (losses) of the embedded derivative in funds withheld
-$27M Less taxes
= Adjusted operating shareholders' equity $5.72B
Adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share non-GAAP $129.94 As of June 30, 2026 —
GAAP → non-GAAP reconciliation
GAAP Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL per share $126.18
-$1.18 Non-credit impairment-related fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
-$0.46 Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
+$5.87 Unrealized gains (losses) on investment portfolio
+$0.12 Fair value gains (losses) of freestanding derivatives in the Annuity Reinsurance segment
+$0.03 Fair value gains (losses) of the embedded derivative in funds withheld
-$0.62 Less taxes
= Adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share $129.94
Asset management adjusted operating loss non-GAAP $4M second quarter 2026 —
Authorized remaining share repurchase capacity $121M As of August 5, 2026 —
Capital returned to shareholders (year-to-date share repurchases) $130M Total 2026 (through August 5, 2026) —
Corporate Division adjusted operating income (loss) non-GAAP -$28M Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 —
Financial guaranty claims-paying resources $9.98B As of June 30, 2026 —
Financial guaranty net debt service outstanding $446.6B As of June 30, 2026 —
Financial guaranty net par outstanding $281.4B As of June 30, 2026 —
Financial guaranty net par outstanding - Below-investment-grade (BIG) $8.5B As of June 30, 2026 —
Financial guaranty net par outstanding - Investment grade $272.9B As of June 30, 2026 —
Shares outstanding at the end of the period 44.1M As of June 30, 2026 —
Shares repurchased (year-to-date) 1.56M Total 2026 (through August 5, 2026) —
Adjusted operating income (loss) per diluted share non-GAAP $2.5 Quarter Ended March 31, 2026 —
Alternative investments $965M As of March 31, 2026 —
Alternative investments - Financial Guaranty segment $762M As of March 31, 2026 —
Asset management adjusted operating income non-GAAP $44M Quarter Ended March 31, 2026 —
Authorized to repurchase remaining $147M As of May 6, 2026 —
Average Price Per Share (repurchases) $85.58 January 1 - March 31, 2026 —
Claims-paying resources 10.02B As of March 31, 2026 —
Common Shares Outstanding 44.6M As of March 31, 2026 —
Dividends 18M first quarter 2026 —
Estimated Ending Net Debt Service Outstanding $441.5B 2026 (as of March 31) —
Funds withheld receivable $296M As of March 31, 2026 —
Future policy benefit reserves (PRT) $475M As of March 31, 2026 —
Inception-to-date annualized internal rate of return for all alternative investments 12% As of March 31, 2026 —
MYGA policyholder account value $263M As of March 31, 2026 —
Net economic loss development (benefit) $44M Quarter Ended March 31, 2026 —
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) $141M Quarter Ended March 31, 2026 —
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) - Other structured finance $58M Quarter Ended March 31, 2026 —
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) - Public finance $131M Quarter Ended March 31, 2026 —
Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) - U.S. RMBS -$48M Quarter Ended March 31, 2026 —
Pre-tax book yield 4.78% As of March 31, 2026 —
Total net par outstanding $278.6B As of March 31, 2026 —
Alternative investments in Insurance segment 838M Q4 FY2025 —
Capital ratio 80 As of December 31, 2025 —
Corporate Division adjusted operating income non-GAAP -$89M Year Ended December 31, 2025 —
Financial guaranty net par outstanding - Total $277.1B As of December 31, 2025 —
Financial resources ratio 44 As of December 31, 2025 —
Inception-to-date annualized internal rate of return for alternative investments 13% Q4 FY2025 —
Net debt service outstanding $443.6B As of December 31, 2025 —
Net deferred premium revenue on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be ex non-GAAP $3.37B As of December 31, 2025 —
Net exposure to qualified statutory capital 51 As of December 31, 2025 —
Net par outstanding $277.1M December 31, 2025 —
Net present value of estimated net future revenue non-GAAP $194M As of December 31, 2025 —
New Business Production - Total Gross Par Written 32.92B FY2025 —
New Business Production - Total GWP 256M FY2025 —
New Business Production - Total PVP 286M FY2025 —
Penetration of all municipal issuance 4.4% FY2025 —
PVP (Public Finance Non-U.S.) non-GAAP $37M Year Ended December 31, 2025 —
PVP (Public Finance U.S.) non-GAAP $206M Year Ended December 31, 2025 —
PVP (Structured Finance Non-U.S.) non-GAAP $30M Year Ended December 31, 2025 —
PVP (Structured Finance U.S.) non-GAAP $13M Year Ended December 31, 2025 —
Segment adjusted operating income non-GAAP $20M Year Ended December 31, 2025 —
Share of U.S. primary municipal market insured par sold 58% FY2025 —
Shares repurchased 5.8M FY 2025 —
Statutory net exposure $280.1B As of December 31, 2025 —
Statutory net exposure to claims-paying resources 28 As of December 31, 2025 —
Total BIG Category 1 $3.74B December 31, 2025 —
Total BIG Category 2 $3.81B December 31, 2025 —
Total BIG Category 3 $1.21B December 31, 2025 —
Total BIG net par outstanding $8.76B December 31, 2025 —
Total claims-paying resources $10.09B As of December 31, 2025 —
Total Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Net Par Outstanding $1.1B As of December 31, 2025 —
Total investment portfolio and cash $8.78B As of December 31, 2025 —
Total Net Par Outstanding - PREPA $464M As of December 31, 2025 —
Total non-defaulting Puerto Rico Net Par Outstanding $76M As of December 31, 2025 —
Total Other adjusted operating income non-GAAP $5M Three Months Ended December 31, 2025 —
Total top 25 U.S. structured finance exposures $5.8B As of December 31, 2025 —
Total top 50 non-U.S. exposures $38.16B As of December 31, 2025 —
Total top 50 U.S. public finance exposures $48.4B As of December 31, 2025 —
U.S. municipal bond insurance market share of new issue insured par sold 58.5% FY 2025 —
U.S. public finance secondary market GWP 44M FY2025 —
U.S. public finance secondary market PVP 44M FY2025 —

Figures exactly as the company stated them in writing · click a metric with a to chart its history · period links open the stating document · "filing" marks figures stated in the 10-K/10-Q · YoY needs an exactly comparable prior-year period

Versus peers

Insurance - Specialty — same industry group
Open screener →
Company Mkt cap YTD Rev growth Y/Y P/E Short % shares
AGO
Assured Guaranty Ltd
this stock
$3.29B -16.0% +27.3% 9.9 4.9%
FNF
Fidelity National Financial, Inc.
 $12.75B -12.9% +5.6% — 3.1%
RYAN
Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.
 $11.22B -15.0% +21.3% — 5.2%
FAF
First American Financial Corp
 $7.60B +21.2% +21.6% 10.3 5.5%
AXS
Axis Capital Holdings Ltd
 $7.28B -7.8% +10.2% 7.4 2.8%

Peers by industry group · P/E from as-reported trailing EPS · short % is of shares outstanding

At a glance

key data from every section
Ownership
Institutional Holders Accumulating
Holders
371
% held
94.2%
Net QoQ
+357.0K sh
Top holder
BlackRock, Inc.
Held Float
View
Held by Funds
Fund positions
140
View
Short & Settlement
Short Interest Rising
Shares short
2.2M
Days to cover
5.8d
Change
+263.0K sh
View
Short Volume
Short vol %
38%
As of
Aug 31, 2026
Short Total
View
Fails to Deliver
FTD shares
26
Value
$2.2K
As of
Jul 21, 2026
View
Off-Exchange
Off-exchange %
39.4%
Week of
Jul 27, 2026
Off-exch Lit
View
Smart Money
Congressional Trades Sell
Member
Donna Shalala
Amount
$1.0K–$15.0K
Traded
Mar 6, 2019
View
Financials
Financials
Revenue (FY)
$1.1B
Net income (FY)
$503.0M
EPS diluted
$10.26
View
Buybacks
Authorized
$300.0M
Remaining
$121.0M
Spent Remaining
View
Filings
SEC Filings
Latest
8-K
Filed
Aug 7, 2026
This year
14
View
Proposed Sales
Value
$10.1M
Shares
123.8K
Filed
Mar 30, 2026
View
Earnings & Events
Earnings Calls
Last call
Aug 6, 2026
View

Performance

5D 20D 120D MTD YTD
AGO +1.5% -8.7% -11.8% -8.7% -16.0%
SPY +0.5% +3.0% +13.4% +3.0% +12.8%
vs SPY +1.0% -11.7% -25.2% -11.7% -28.8%

Capital returns

Latest dividend
$0.38 / share · ex Aug 20, 2026
Raised 11.8%
Paid (TTM)
$1.14 / share · 3 payouts
Dividend yield (TTM, derived)
1.51%
Buyback program · as of Aug 5, 2026
Authorized
$300.00M
Spent (derived)
$179.00M
Remaining
$121.00M
Spent Remaining

Dividends per share over the trailing 365 days by ex-date · buyback figures as last reported in SEC filings ("spent" derived as authorized − remaining; when several programs run concurrently, authorized is their combined total per the newest filing) · components shown separately — trailing-year buyback spend isn't tracked, so no combined shareholder yield is derived.

Key facts CIK 1273813 CUSIP G0585R106 13F (30d) 275 filings 269 filers Visit website Investor relations

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