LYG 6-K
Lloyds Banking Group plc (LYG)
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 6-K
REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE ISSUER
PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 OR 15d-16
UNDER THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
1 May 2025
Commission File number 001-15246
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP plc
(Translation of registrant's name into English)
33 Old Broad Street
London
EC2N 1HZ
United Kingdom
(Address of principal executive offices)
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant files or will file annual reports under cover of Form 20-F or Form 40-F.
Form 20-F ☒Form 40-F ☐
Indicate by check mark if the registrant is submitting the Form 6-K in paper as permitted by Regulation S-T Rule 101 (b) (1)
________.
Indicate by check mark if the registrant is submitting the Form 6-K in paper as permitted by Regulation S-T Rule 101 (b) (7)
________.
This report on Form 6-K shall be deemed incorporated by reference into the company's Registration Statement on Form F-3 (File
No. 333-265452) and to be a part thereof from the date on which this report is filed, to the extent not superseded by documents
or reports subsequently filed or furnished.
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FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This document contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the US Securities
Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and section 27A of the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended, with respect to
the business, strategy, plans and/or results of Lloyds Banking Group plc together with its subsidiaries (the Group)
and its current goals and expectations. Statements that are not historical or current facts, including statements
about the Group’s or its directors’ and/or management’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements.
Words such as, without limitation, ‘believes’, ‘achieves’, ‘anticipates’, ‘estimates’, ‘expects’, ‘targets’, ‘should’,
‘intends’, ‘aims’, ‘projects’, ‘plans’, ‘potential’, ‘will’, ‘would’, ‘could’, ‘considered’, ‘likely’, ‘may’, ‘seek’, ‘estimate’,
‘probability’, ‘goal’, ‘objective’, ‘deliver’, ‘endeavour’, ‘prospects’, ‘optimistic’ and similar expressions or variations
on these expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. These statements concern or may affect
future matters, including but not limited to: projections or expectations of the Group’s future financial position,
including profit attributable to shareholders, provisions, economic profit, dividends, capital structure, portfolios,
net interest margin, capital ratios, liquidity, risk-weighted assets (RWAs), expenditures or any other financial items
or ratios; litigation, regulatory and governmental investigations; the Group’s future financial performance; the level
and extent of future impairments and write-downs; the Group’s ESG targets and/or commitments; statements of
plans, objectives or goals of the Group or its management and other statements that are not historical fact and
statements of assumptions underlying such statements. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk
and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend upon circumstances that will or may occur in the future.
Factors that could cause actual business, strategy, targets, plans and/or results (including but not limited to the
payment of dividends) to differ materially from forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: general
economic and business conditions in the UK and internationally (including in relation to tariffs); imposed and
threatened tariffs and changes to global trade policies; acts of hostility or terrorism and responses to those acts, or
other such events; geopolitical unpredictability; the war between Russia and Ukraine; the conflicts in the Middle
East; the tensions between China and Taiwan; political instability including as a result of any UK general election;
market related risks, trends and developments; changes in client and consumer behaviour and demand; exposure
to counterparty risk; the ability to access sufficient sources of capital, liquidity and funding when required; changes
to the Group’s credit ratings; fluctuations in interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, stock markets and currencies;
volatility in credit markets; volatility in the price of the Group’s securities; natural pandemic and other disasters;
risks concerning borrower and counterparty credit quality; risks affecting insurance business and defined benefit
pension schemes; changes in laws, regulations, practices and accounting standards or taxation; changes to
regulatory capital or liquidity requirements and similar contingencies; the policies and actions of governmental or
regulatory authorities or courts together with any resulting impact on the future structure of the Group; risks
associated with the Group’s compliance with a wide range of laws and regulations; assessment related to
resolution planning requirements; risks related to regulatory actions which may be taken in the event of a bank or
Group failure; exposure to legal, regulatory or competition proceedings, investigations or complaints; failure to
comply with anti-money laundering, counter terrorist financing, anti-bribery and sanctions regulations; failure to
prevent or detect any illegal or improper activities; operational risks including risks as a result of the failure of third
party suppliers; conduct risk; technological changes and risks to the security of IT and operational infrastructure,
systems, data and information resulting from increased threat of cyber and other attacks; technological failure;
inadequate or failed internal or external processes or systems; risks relating to ESG matters, such as climate change
(and achieving climate change ambitions) and decarbonisation, including the Group’s ability along with the
government and other stakeholders to measure, manage and mitigate the impacts of climate change effectively,
and human rights issues; the impact of competitive conditions; failure to attract, retain and develop high calibre
talent; the ability to achieve strategic objectives; the ability to derive cost savings and other benefits including, but
without limitation, as a result of any acquisitions, disposals and other strategic transactions; inability to capture
accurately the expected value from acquisitions; assumptions and estimates that form the basis of the Group’s
financial statements; and potential changes in dividend policy. A number of these influences and factors are
beyond the Group’s control. Please refer to the latest Annual Report on Form 20-F filed by Lloyds Banking Group
plc with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC), which is available on the SEC’s website at
www.sec.gov, for a discussion of certain factors and risks. Lloyds Banking Group plc may also make or disclose
written and/or oral forward-looking statements in other written materials and in oral statements made by the
directors, officers or employees of Lloyds Banking Group plc to third parties, including financial analysts. Except as
required by any applicable law or regulation, the forward-looking statements contained in this document are made
as of today’s date, and the Group expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any updates
or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained in this document whether as a result of new information,
future events or otherwise. The information, statements and opinions contained in this document do not
constitute a public offer under any applicable law or an offer to sell any securities or financial instruments or any
advice or recommendation with respect to such securities or financial instruments.
EXPLANATORY NOTE
This report on Form 6-K contains the interim report of Lloyds Banking Group plc, which includes the unaudited
consolidated interim results for the three months ended 31 March 2025 and is being incorporated by reference into
the Registration Statement with File No. 333-265452.
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FINANCIAL REVIEW
Income statement
The Group’s profit before tax for the first three months of 2025 was £1,517 million, 7% lower than the same period
in 2024. This was driven by higher total income more than offset by higher operating expenses and a higher
impairment charge. Profit after tax was £1,134 million and earnings per share was 1.7 pence (three months to 31
March 2024: £1,215 million and 1.7 pence respectively).
Total income for the first three months of 2025 was £4,695 million, an increase of 7% on the same period in 2024
(three months to 31 March 2024: £4,387 million). Net interest income of £3,204 million was up 5% on the prior year
(three months to 31 March 2024: £3,045 million), driven by a higher margin and higher average interest-earning
assets. Other income increased by 11% to £1,491 million (three months to 31 March 2024: £1,342 million). Within
Retail, there was improved performance in UK Motor Finance, with fleet growth and higher average vehicle rental
values, while Insurance, Pensions and Investments benefitted from higher general insurance income net of claims.
Total operating expenses of £2,868 million were 6% higher than in the prior year. This reflects higher costs,
combining inflationary pressures, timing of strategic investment including planned higher severance front-loaded
into the first quarter of 2025 and business growth costs, partly offset by cost savings and continued cost discipline.
This is alongside higher operating lease depreciation, as a result of fleet growth, the depreciation of higher value
vehicles and declines in used electric car prices over 2024.
No net remediation charge was recognised by the Group in the first three months of 2025 (three months to
31 March 2024: £25 million). There have been no further charges relating to motor finance commission
arrangements. The Supreme Court heard the appeal of the Wrench, Johnson and Hopcraft decision in early April
and has stated that it is likely to produce its judgment in July. The FCA has indicated that the decision will inform
its next steps in the discretionary commission arrangements (DCA) review and that it will confirm within six weeks
of the decision if it is proposing a redress scheme and if so, how it will take that forward. The FCA has also noted
that its next steps on non-DCA complaints will be informed by the decision.
The impairment charge was £310 million, up from £56 million in the three months to 31 March 2024. Asset quality
remained resilient in the quarter. The charge included strong portfolio performance in Retail, more than offset by a
higher charge in Commercial Banking, partly due to the non-recurrence of a release from loss rates used in the
model in 2024. The charge also included a £100 million central adjustment to address downside risks to the base
case related to the potential impact from US tariff policies announced at the start of April. These were becoming
apparent around the balance sheet date and were determined to not be fully captured within the modelled
divisional ECL allowances. This is partially offset by benefits to the MES from small increases to house price and
wage growth expectations.
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FINANCIAL REVIEW (continued)
Balance sheet
Total assets were £3,200 million higher at £909,897 million at 31 March 2025 (31 December 2024:
£906,697 million).
Financial assets at amortised cost were £2,882 million higher at £534,659 million (31 December 2024:
£531,777 million) with increases in loans and advances to customers. This included growth of £4,807 million in UK
mortgages and growth across UK Retail unsecured loans, credit cards, UK Motor Finance and the European retail
business. Lending balances remained broadly stable in Commercial Banking, with growth in Institutional balances
partly offset by repayments of government-backed lending. The growth in loans and advances to customers was
partly offset by a £1,820 million reduction in reverse repurchase agreements, a £578 million reduction in loans and
advances to banks and a £1,652 million reduction in debt securities.
Cash and balances at central banks were stable at £62,891 million. Financial assets held at fair value through profit
or loss decreased by £475 million, with reduced holdings in the Insurance business as a result of market losses on
equity investments, partly offset by increased holdings in the banking business due to increased reverse repurchase
agreements. Derivative financial assets were £3,355 million lower at £20,710 million (31 December 2024:
£24,065 million), driven by interest rate movements in the period. Financial assets at fair value through other
comprehensive income were stable in the period at £31,027 million. Other assets were £3,625 million higher,
primarily reflecting increased settlement balances.
Total liabilities were £1,288 million higher at £862,097 million (31 December 2024: £860,809 million). Customer
deposits of £487,691 million increased in the period by £4,946 million. Retail deposits increased £2,637 million in
the period, driven by net inflows to limited withdrawal and fixed term deposits alongside higher current account
balances. Commercial Banking deposits were up £2,261 million in the quarter, aided by short term balances.
Financial liabilities at fair value through profit or loss increased by £2,428 million to £30,039 million at 31 March
2025 due to increased repurchase agreements. Derivative financial liabilities decreased by £3,317 million to
£18,359 million as a result of market movements. Liabilities arising from insurance and investment contracts
decreased by £3,332 million reflecting the decrease in policyholder investments. Other liabilities increased by
£3,642 million reflecting increased settlement balances. Debt securities in issue reduced by £3,011 million, with
higher levels of maturities in the period.
Total equity increased to £47,800 million at 31 March 2025 (31 December 2024: £45,888 million). The increase
primarily reflected profit attributable to ordinary shareholders alongside unwind of the cash flow hedge reserve
and issuance of an AT1 capital instrument in February 2025. The Group has commenced the share buyback
announced in February 2025, with c.0.3 billion shares repurchased as at 31 March 2025.
Capital
The Group’s common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio reduced to 13.5% at 31 March 2025 (31 December 2024:
14.2%). Banking business profits for the first three months of the year and the dividend received from the Group’s
Insurance business were more than offset by the recognition of the full impact of the announced ordinary share
buyback in respect of 2024, the accrual for foreseeable ordinary dividends and an increase in risk-weighted assets.
The Group’s total capital ratio reduced to 18.4% at 31 March 2025 (31 December 2024: 19.0%), reflecting the
reduction in CET1 capital, a reduction in tier 2 capital due in part to an instrument call and an increase in risk-
weighted assets, partially offset by the issuance of a new AT1 capital instrument. The MREL ratio reduced to 30.4%
at 31 March 2025 (31 December 2024: 32.2%) reflecting the reduction in total capital resources and the increase in
risk-weighted assets, in addition to a reduction in other eligible liabilities largely reflecting instrument calls, net of
new issuances.
Risk-weighted assets increased by £5,490 million to £230,122 million at 31 March 2025 (31 December 2024:
£224,632 million). This reflects the impact of strong lending growth, but also includes a temporary c.£2.5 billion
increase primarily due to hedging activity that is expected to reverse by the third quarter. The growth in risk-
weighted assets was partly offset by continued optimisation activity and other movements.
The Group’s UK leverage ratio at 31 March 2025 remained at 5.5% (31 December 2024: 5.5%). The increase in the
leverage exposure measure primarily reflects increases across loans and advances and other assets, due in part to
strong lending growth, and an increase in off-balance sheet items.
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CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT (UNAUDITED)
| Three<br><br>months<br><br>ended<br><br>31 Mar<br><br>2025<br><br>£m | Three<br><br>months<br><br>ended<br><br>31 Mar<br><br>2024<br><br>£m | |
|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 3,204 | 3,045 |
| Other income1 | 1,491 | 1,342 |
| Total income1 | 4,695 | 4,387 |
| Operating expenses | (2,868) | (2,703) |
| Impairment charge | (310) | (56) |
| Profit before tax | 1,517 | 1,628 |
| Tax expense | (383) | (413) |
| Profit after tax | 1,134 | 1,215 |
| Profit attributable to ordinary shareholders | 1,006 | 1,069 |
| Profit attributable to other equity holders | 115 | 135 |
| Profit attributable to non-controlling interests | 13 | 11 |
| Profit after tax | 1,134 | 1,215 |
| Ordinary shares in issue (weighted-average – basic) | 60,589m | 63,906m |
| Basic earnings per share | 1.7p | 1.7p |
1Net finance expense in respect of insurance and investment contracts, previously shown separately, is now included within
other income as part of total income. The comparative period is presented on a consistent basis.
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CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET (UNAUDITED)
| At 31 Mar<br><br>2025<br><br>£m | At 31 Dec<br><br>2024<br><br>£m | |
|---|---|---|
| Assets | ||
| Cash and balances at central banks | 62,891 | 62,705 |
| Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss | 215,450 | 215,925 |
| Derivative financial instruments | 20,710 | 24,065 |
| Financial assets at amortised cost | 534,659 | 531,777 |
| Financial assets at fair value through other comprehensive income | 31,027 | 30,690 |
| Other assets | 45,160 | 41,535 |
| Total assets | 909,897 | 906,697 |
| Liabilities | ||
| Deposits from banks | 6,019 | 6,158 |
| Customer deposits | 487,691 | 482,745 |
| Repurchase agreements at amortised cost | 38,474 | 37,760 |
| Financial liabilities at fair value through profit or loss | 30,039 | 27,611 |
| Derivative financial instruments | 18,359 | 21,676 |
| Debt securities in issue at amortised cost | 67,823 | 70,834 |
| Liabilities arising from insurance and participating investment contracts | 120,131 | 122,064 |
| Liabilities arising from non-participating investment contracts | 49,829 | 51,228 |
| Other liabilities | 34,286 | 30,644 |
| Subordinated liabilities | 9,446 | 10,089 |
| Total liabilities | 862,097 | 860,809 |
| Total equity | 47,800 | 45,888 |
| Total equity and liabilities | 909,897 | 906,697 |
ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL INFORMATION
1.Basis of presentation
This release covers the results of Lloyds Banking Group plc together with its subsidiaries (the Group) for the three
months ended 31 March 2025.
The Group’s Q1 2025 Interim Pillar 3 Disclosures can be found at: www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/investors/
financial-downloads.html.
Accounting policies
The accounting policies are consistent with those applied by the Group in its 2024 Annual Report on Form 20-F.
2.Total ECL allowance by scenario
The following table shows the Group’s ECL for the probability-weighted, upside, base case, downside and severe
downside scenarios, with the severe downside scenario incorporating adjustments made to Consumer Price Index
(CPI) inflation and UK Bank Rate paths.
| Probability-<br><br>weighted<br><br>£m | Upside<br><br>£m | Base case<br><br>£m | Downside<br><br>£m | Severe<br><br>downside<br><br>£m | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At 31 March 20251 | 3,587 | 2,711 | 3,139 | 4,063 | 6,128 | |
| At 31 December 2024 | 3,481 | 2,467 | 3,036 | 3,988 | 6,338 |
1Includes £100 million central adjustment held constant across all scenarios.
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ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL INFORMATION (continued)
3.Loans and advances to customers and expected credit loss allowance
| At 31 March 2025 | Stage 1<br><br>£m | Stage 2<br><br>£m | Stage 3<br><br>£m | POCI<br><br>£m | Total<br><br>£m | Stage 2<br><br>as % of<br><br>total | Stage 3<br><br>as % of<br><br>total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loans and advances to customers | |||||||
| UK mortgages | 275,816 | 31,912 | 4,137 | 6,016 | 317,881 | 10.0 | 1.3 |
| Credit cards | 13,875 | 2,327 | 261 | – | 16,463 | 14.1 | 1.6 |
| UK unsecured loans and overdrafts | 9,660 | 1,325 | 171 | – | 11,156 | 11.9 | 1.5 |
| UK Motor Finance | 14,197 | 2,491 | 131 | – | 16,819 | 14.8 | 0.8 |
| Other | 18,462 | 471 | 151 | – | 19,084 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| Retail | 332,010 | 38,526 | 4,851 | 6,016 | 381,403 | 10.1 | 1.3 |
| Business and Commercial Banking | 25,778 | 2,946 | 1,160 | – | 29,884 | 9.9 | 3.9 |
| Corporate and Institutional Banking | 55,355 | 2,631 | 1,014 | – | 59,000 | 4.5 | 1.7 |
| Commercial Banking | 81,133 | 5,577 | 2,174 | – | 88,884 | 6.3 | 2.4 |
| Other1 | (88) | – | – | – | (88) | ||
| Total gross lending | 413,055 | 44,103 | 7,025 | 6,016 | 470,199 | 9.4 | 1.5 |
| Customer related ECL allowance (drawn and undrawn) | |||||||
| UK mortgages | 52 | 245 | 322 | 179 | 798 | ||
| Credit cards | 199 | 308 | 130 | – | 637 | ||
| UK unsecured loans and overdrafts | 167 | 240 | 114 | – | 521 | ||
| UK Motor Finance2 | 170 | 118 | 75 | – | 363 | ||
| Other | 14 | 14 | 38 | – | 66 | ||
| Retail | 602 | 925 | 679 | 179 | 2,385 | ||
| Business and Commercial Banking | 133 | 183 | 172 | – | 488 | ||
| Corporate and Institutional Banking | 117 | 152 | 324 | – | 593 | ||
| Commercial Banking | 250 | 335 | 496 | – | 1,081 | ||
| Other3 | 50 | 50 | – | – | 100 | ||
| Total | 902 | 1,310 | 1,175 | 179 | 3,566 | ||
| Customer related ECL allowance (drawn and undrawn) as a percentage of loans and advances to customers | |||||||
| Stage 1<br><br>% | Stage 2<br><br>% | Stage 3<br><br>% | POCI<br><br>% | Total<br><br>% | |||
| UK mortgages | — | 0.8 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.3 | ||
| Credit cards | 1.4 | 13.2 | 49.8 | – | 3.9 | ||
| UK unsecured loans and overdrafts | 1.7 | 18.1 | 66.7 | – | 4.7 | ||
| UK Motor Finance | 1.2 | 4.7 | 57.3 | – | 2.2 | ||
| Other | 0.1 | 3.0 | 25.2 | – | 0.3 | ||
| Retail | 0.2 | 2.4 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 0.6 | ||
| Business and Commercial Banking | 0.5 | 6.2 | 14.8 | – | 1.6 | ||
| Corporate and Institutional Banking | 0.2 | 5.8 | 32.0 | – | 1.0 | ||
| Commercial Banking | 0.3 | 6.0 | 22.8 | – | 1.2 | ||
| Other | – | – | |||||
| Total | 0.2 | 3.0 | 16.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 |
1Contains central fair value hedge accounting adjustments.
2UK Motor Finance includes £178 million relating to provisions against residual values of vehicles subject to finance leases.
3Other includes a £100 million central adjustment that has not been allocated to specific portfolios.
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ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL INFORMATION (continued)
4.UK economic assumptions
Base case and MES economic assumptions
The Group’s base case scenario is for a slow expansion in gross domestic product (GDP) and a modest rise in the
unemployment rate alongside small gains in residential and commercial property prices. Inflationary pressures
remain persistent, but gradual cuts in UK Bank Rate are expected to continue during 2025. Risks around this base
case economic view lie in both directions and are largely captured by the generation of alternative economic
scenarios.
The Group has taken into account the latest available information at the reporting date in defining its base case
scenario and generating alternative economic scenarios. The scenarios include forecasts for key variables as of the
first quarter of 2025. Actuals for this period, or restatements of past data, may have since emerged prior to
publication and have not been included. The Group’s approach to generating alternative economic scenarios is set
out in detail in note 21 to the financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2024, found in the Group’s
2024 Annual Report on Form 20-F.
The Group had included assumptions for expected tariffs and potential responses in its quarter-end base case
conditioning assumptions prior to announcements at the start of April. Initial non-UK tariffs announced in the first
few days of April and the immediate market response were larger than expected. Accordingly, the Group has
adopted a £100 million central adjustment to reflect the potential ECL impact, informed by high level sensitivity to
key UK economic metrics based on tariff scenarios. Subsequent developments through April were judged to relate
to conditions after the balance sheet date and will be reflected in the second quarter reporting period.
UK economic assumptions – base case scenario by quarter
Key quarterly assumptions made by the Group in the base case scenario are shown below. GDP growth is
presented quarter-on-quarter. House price growth, commercial real estate price growth and CPI inflation are
presented year-on-year, i.e. from the equivalent quarter in the previous year. Unemployment rate and UK Bank
Rate are presented as at the end of each quarter.
| At 31 March 2025 | First<br><br>quarter<br><br>2025<br><br>% | Second<br><br>quarter<br><br>2025<br><br>% | Third<br><br>quarter<br><br>2025<br><br>% | Fourth<br><br>quarter<br><br>2025<br><br>% | First<br><br>quarter<br><br>2026<br><br>% | Second<br><br>quarter<br><br>2026<br><br>% | Third<br><br>quarter<br><br>2026<br><br>% | Fourth<br><br>quarter<br><br>2026<br><br>% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic product growth | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| House price growth | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Commercial real estate price growth | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| UK Bank Rate | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| CPI inflation | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
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| --- |
ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL INFORMATION (continued)
4.UK economic assumptions (continued)
UK economic assumptions – scenarios by year
Key annual assumptions made by the Group are shown below. GDP growth and CPI inflation are presented as an
annual change, house price growth and commercial real estate price growth are presented as the growth in the
respective indices within the period. Unemployment rate and UK Bank Rate are averages for the period.
| At 31 March 2025 | 2025<br><br>% | 2026<br><br>% | 2027<br><br>% | 2028<br><br>% | 2029<br><br>% | 2025-2029<br><br>average<br><br>% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upside | ||||||
| Gross domestic product growth | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| House price growth | 2.9 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 5.1 |
| Commercial real estate price growth | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 3.2 |
| UK Bank Rate | 4.43 | 4.72 | 4.86 | 5.06 | 5.20 | 4.85 |
| CPI inflation | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Base case | ||||||
| Gross domestic product growth | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| House price growth | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| Commercial real estate price growth | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| UK Bank Rate | 4.19 | 3.63 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.66 |
| CPI inflation | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Downside | ||||||
| Gross domestic product growth | (0.2) | (0.9) | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Unemployment rate | 5.6 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| House price growth | 0.5 | (3.4) | (6.7) | (4.2) | (1.1) | (3.0) |
| Commercial real estate price growth | (4.7) | (5.7) | (1.7) | (2.2) | (2.3) | (3.4) |
| UK Bank Rate | 3.83 | 1.67 | 0.96 | 0.65 | 0.42 | 1.51 |
| CPI inflation | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Severe downside | ||||||
| Gross domestic product growth | (1.1) | (2.3) | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| Unemployment rate | 6.8 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 9.2 |
| House price growth | (0.6) | (8.4) | (13.8) | (9.6) | (5.0) | (7.6) |
| Commercial real estate price growth | (12.5) | (13.3) | (7.1) | (5.7) | (4.9) | (8.8) |
| UK Bank Rate – modelled | 3.38 | 0.39 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.78 |
| UK Bank Rate – adjusted1 | 4.25 | 2.94 | 2.80 | 2.76 | 2.75 | 3.10 |
| CPI inflation – modelled | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | (0.2) | 1.5 |
| CPI inflation – adjusted1 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| Probability-weighted | ||||||
| Gross domestic product growth | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Unemployment rate | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 |
| House price growth | 1.4 | 0.5 | (0.8) | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Commercial real estate price growth | (0.4) | (1.0) | (0.1) | (0.7) | (1.0) | (0.6) |
| UK Bank Rate – modelled | 4.07 | 3.04 | 2.81 | 2.76 | 2.74 | 3.08 |
| UK Bank Rate – adjusted1 | 4.16 | 3.30 | 3.08 | 3.04 | 3.01 | 3.32 |
| CPI inflation – modelled | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| CPI inflation – adjusted1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
1The adjustment to UK Bank Rate and CPI inflation in the severe downside is considered to better reflect the risks to the
Group’s base case view in an economic environment where the risks of supply and demand shocks are seen as more balanced.
| Page 9 of 9 |
|---|
SIGNATURE
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to
be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorised.
| LLOYDS BANKING GROUP plc | |
|---|---|
| By: | /s/ William Chalmers |
| Name: | William Chalmers |
| Title: | Chief Financial Officer |
| Dated: | 1 May 2025 |