Conference Transcript - NOG 2025-08-01

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the NOG's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. The question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star 1 again. Thank you. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's my pleasure to introduce your host, Evelyn Inferna, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may now begin.

Evelyn Infurna, Head of Investor Relations

Good morning. Welcome to NOG's second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Yesterday, after the close, we released our financial results. You can access our earnings release and presentation in the Investor Relations section of our website at NOGinc.com. who will be filing our June 30 10-Q with the SEC within the next few days. I'm joined this morning by our Chief Executive Officer, Nick O'Grady, our President, Adam Durlum, our Chief Financial Officer, Chad Allen, and our Chief Technical Officer, Jim Evans. Our agenda for today's call is as follows. Nick will provide introductory remarks, followed by Adam, who will share an overview of NOG's operations and business development activities, and Chad will review our financial results. After our prepared remarks, the team, including Jim, will be available to answer any questions. Before we begin, let me remind you of our safe harbor language. Please be advised that our remarks today, including the answers to your questions, may include forward-looking statements within the meeting of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from the expectations contemplated by our forward-looking statements. Those risks include, among others, matters that have been described in our earnings release, as well as in our filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. During today's call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income, and free cash flow. Reconciliations of these measures to the closest GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release. With that, I'll turn the call over to Nick.

Nick O'Grady, CEO

Thanks, Evelyn. Welcome and good morning, everyone, and thank you for your interest in our company. As usual, I'll give some highlights on our outlook and five key points. Number one, resiliency. NOG's business model is proving its resiliency every day. We've built a solid business that embodies a number of tenets, diversity, scale, and risk optimization that consistently drives results. Our Uinta and Appalachian basins are and will continue to be strong contributors as the Williston moderates during a period of lower prices. Our commodity mix of oil and gas positions us to benefit or offset weakness in either or strengthen both, and our conservative and disciplined approach to investing, as well as downside protection, supports our cash flow in the near term through hedging, and as we look through oil price cycles and take a longer-term, risk-managed view as to how and where to deploy our capital. Our business activity continues to be solid, with the D&C list building substantially this quarter, as we have seen overall stable drilling activity on our lands. As I have said before and will reiterate now, our goal is to make money for investors, and we believe that our diverse portfolio of holdings will be a relative outperforming given the number of levers we have at our disposal. Number two, drilling versus acquiring, organic versus inorganic. The how and the why. In a period of flux for oil prices, it is a unique time for our model and the decisions we make. Many companies continue to modestly grow their volumes and continue to march forward, even as price is signaling to do something else. I want to be clear that our tactics will likely differ depending on the commodity outlook. We always tell investors that growth is the output of return-based decisions, not a front-end decision for our company. As prices have retracted, our view is that growth capital is better preserved for higher returns in the future at better prices or if spent today on acquisitions. Upwards of 80% of a Wells return is delivered in the first year of its life. An acquisition, on the other hand, typically delivers its return over four to seven years. Drilling, while generally higher return in the short term, is inherently riskier in this volatile price environment. With acquisitions, we benefit in multiple ways. long-term upside convexity, and the resiliency to the long-term return profile. This is the driving logic to our reduced near-term spending. To the extent we do spend additional capital, it will be through discretionary capital outlays through acquiring stable production and inventory. That inventory and production will have the aforementioned convexity of future prices, so we retain the option of ramping activity if the environment changes. Remember, the oil is still there in the ground and will adapt quickly. Number three, whatever the price of oil, cash flow continues. We generated over $126 million in free cash flow this quarter, plus we have another nearly $50 million pending from a recent legal settlement. Our debt balance has changed little since last quarter, mostly a function of the closing of our recent Midland acquisition, changes to working capital, and the mechanics of our convert tack-on and simultaneous stock buyback. But the business itself, through a very weak period of oil prices, continues to shine while production has remained resilient and our careful risk management shines through. This is in spite of a significant amount of price-related shut-ins from price-sensitive operators and other deferments that are typical in a lower-priced environment. While not always the most popular, these decisions by our operators have proven time and time again to be value-enhancing through patiently waiting out the cycles. With that said, the ground game is providing compelling offset opportunities, which brings me to my next point. Number four, ground game success. As I've mentioned in the past several quarters, the term ground game means many things, from raw, unbound acreage to drill-ready projects, and our competitiveness in all of these categories ebbs and flows at times. Our discipline means we evaluate across basins, structures, and commodity type depending on the returns and opportunity. In the past year, we've focused particularly on acreage, as it's become a lost art to take longer-dated positions on undeveloped acreage, and the results have been stellar. We've seen large portions of our acreage in the Utica become unitized rapidly, and in short order, we're seeing our concentrated working interests getting well proposals on those lands. And in the second quarter, with the weakness in oil, all portions of the ground game saw more success across each of our active basins. If we see further weakness in the oil markets in the later innings of 2025, expect to see even further success for us in this arena, as that's when we tend to have the most traction. Number five, with great power comes great responsibility. As the largest and best capitalized non-operator, we have found ourselves uniquely situated by being involved in most major M&A processes that are going on in the marketplace today. This is being driven by the breadth of our capabilities, our reputation in the marketplace, and the increasing need for our capital. I mentioned the difference between drilling for returns versus acquiring and our view that ultimately, from a long-term perspective, acquiring today has the best future potential. I'm pleased to note that our backlog of potential acquisitions from bolt-ons to truly transformational transactions is at an all-time peak, both in value and, in many cases, impact and quality. These potential transactions cover almost every structure, basin of operation, and variance of scale. Should we be successful on our terms, these opportunities could be highly beneficial to our stakeholders on almost every measure. As I'll remind you, every transaction goes through incredible rigor and scrutiny here at NOG, not to mention our low level of actual conversion success rate. That being said, we are working hard to find value-accretive ways to continue to drive our business forward, and I'm highly confident that we'll find meaningful ways to do so. NOG's Q2 results highlight the flexibility of the business model in our returns-based philosophy. These factors have translated into significant cash flow generation and excellent capital efficiency over time. While overall growth dynamics have slowed in USGL, we are hard at work to find accretive opportunities for our stakeholders and believe we can deliver over the long term. Let me be absolutely clear. As it pertains to 2026 and beyond, our goal is to maximize returns for our investors and find the optimal path to differentiated growth and value. And we have incredible opportunities to do so beyond just our drilling capital, but we will allocate our capital in the way that creates the most value for our investors. We remain focused on the same simple tenets, which is to grow our profits on a per share basis and build scale for our investors, all the while focusing on strong returns on capital and keeping a strong balance sheet. I often mention that NOG is different. We are different in so many ways, but I think we're most different in that we do things almost exclusively focused on long-term thinking, on long-term value creation through cycle, sometimes these measures may differ from our peers, but seizing on market opportunities will ultimately drive more value in the end. Thank you again for listening and your continued interest in our company. Adam?

Adam Dirlam, Other

Thank you, Nick. Operationally, the second quarter finished as expected, even in the face of continued commodity price volatility. Our operating partners have, for the most part, maintain their development cadence, with the exception of a few operators in the Williston who have pulled back. As a result, we saw one net well deferred and approximately 3,800 barrels per day shut in due to pricing pressure from a single operator. Notwithstanding the deferrals and shut-ins, current Williston results continue to outperform internal estimates and well productivity is appreciably higher compared to 2024 tills. While we've seen some expected IP dates pushed out as operators take a more cautious stance on bringing wells online, overall activity levels across our core basins remain robust. The Permian held steady while both the Uinta and Appalachia saw the anticipated uptick in drilling activity. In the UINTA, we spud 4.8 net wells during the quarter, up from 1.4 net wells in Q1. Meanwhile, our joint development program in Appalachia is now in full swing. Wells were spud on time and on budget, and with both programs, wells are performing consistent with internal expectations. We're encouraged by the execution we're seeing across the board. Despite modest deferrals on the till front, drilling and AFE activity remain strong. The Permian, Uinta, and Appalachia now account for 80% of our wells in process, which totaled 53.2 net wells at quarter end. That represents a 70% increase in drilling activity quarter over quarter, with 27.1 net wells added to the DNC list in Q2. This drove a net build of 14.3 net wells, with the Permian contributing roughly half of the total wells in process and 60% of the oil-weighted wells in process. We also see a continued push for improvement in capital efficiency. Normalized well costs on our DNC list are now averaging approximately $800 per lateral foot, and our oil-weighted basins saw cost decline 6% sequentially on a normalized basis. This reflects both longer laterals and exposure to some of the most efficient operators in our basins. Elections, we've seen a retreat to the core with estimated EURs up quarter over quarter, and as a result, our election percentage has remained elevated at 95 plus percent. Quarterly net AFE elections also increased sequentially, along with over a 50% increase in activity relative to 2024's quarterly average. As always, we remain highly selective and continue to stress test all elections against conservative price decks to ensure resilience in a lower-for-longer environment. Looking ahead, we expect to see more of the same from our operating partners as we move into the back half of the year. Relative to Q2, we see a slight increase to tills in Q3 before ramping through Q4 as the Permian and Appalachia increase completions compared to the first half of the year. Similar to anticipated tills, we expect the Permian and Appalachia to drive the bulk of our drilling in the back half of the year, while seeing the Williston slow down absent a change in commodity pricing. On the business development front, we are seeing an accelerating number of opportunities and have been able to take advantage of the downward pressure on commodities to capitalize on ground game opportunities across all of our basins. In the second quarter alone, we reviewed over 170 transactions, over a 40% increase relative to the first quarter. In addition to closing our previously announced Upton County acquisition, we closed 22 transactions, up from seven deals in the first quarter, for a total of 4.8 net wells and over 2,600 net acres across all of our respective basins. Our approach remains the same, targeting both near-term drilling opportunities as well as long-dated inventory. We're finding creative ways to put things together, whether through smaller joint development agreements in the Permian, acreage trades and farmouts, as well as old-fashioned leasing efforts. Regarding larger-scale M&A, there has been an increase in gas-related opportunities entering the market alongside assets that have become available as commodity volatility has decreased. Currently, more than 10 ongoing processes are being assessed with a combined value exceeding $8 billion, and additional opportunities are anticipated. As the largest non-operator of scale, we are having more strategic bilateral conversations and we're optimistic that our flexible model and strong balance sheets position us well to capitalize in this environment. As always, we remain focused on total returns, disciplined capital allocation, and leveraging the advantages of our non-operated model to navigate the current environment.

Chad Allen, CFO

With that, I'll turn it over to Chad. Thanks, Adam. NOG delivered another solid quarter against the noisy macro backdrop. Second quarter total average daily production was approximately 134,000 BOE per day, up 9% versus Q2 of 2024 and in line on a sequential quarter basis. Oil production was approximately 77,000 barrels of oil per day, up 10.5% from Q2 of 2024 and down 2% sequentially, largely due to lower activity in the Williston. The Uwinter turned in another strong contribution with volumes up 18.5% sequentially. Gas production continues to ramp. The first batch of wells from our Appalachian JV are online and started to contribute to volumes in the back half of the quarter. Overall, we had record gas volumes of approximately 343 MMCF per day. Adjusted EBIT in the quarter was $440.4 million, including the impact of a legal settlement of approximately $48.6 million. Free cash flow, excluding the legal settlement, was approximately $126 million, marking our 22nd consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow, exceeding $1.8 billion over that time period. Oil differentials averaged $5.31 per barrel, excluding certain non-cash revenue adjustments. Year-to-date differentials were $5.50, leading us to adjust our guidance range. Natural gas realizations were 82% of benchmark prices, down from 100% last quarter, due to ongoing Waha market weakness, lower NGL prices, and weaker seasonal Appalachian pricing. Lease operating costs per BOE rose 6% to $9.95 due to higher expenses in the Williston due to lower volumes and greater fixed cost absorption, and in the Permian due to increased saltwater disposal costs. To account for higher costs year-to-date, we revised guidance on LOE. We also revised guidance on production taxes to a lower run rate. CapEx in the quarter, excluding non-budgeted acquisitions and others, was $210 million, 16% lower sequentially. Overall, the $210 million was allocated with 34% to the Permian, 25% to the Williston, 15% to the Uwinta, and 26% in the Appalachian Basin, respectively. Approximately $185 million of total spend in the quarter was allocated to development CapEx. For the remainder of 2025, we are still anticipating a 50-50 split in terms of spend for the third and fourth quarters. Given our outlook on commodity pricing and our anticipation of deceleration in organic growth, we are reducing our 2025 CapEx guidance to a range of $925 million to $1.05 billion, which is a reduction of about $137.5 million at the midpoint. With the acceleration of potential investment opportunities, Adam's team is evaluating. We anticipate the growth wedge initially built into our CapEx guidance will be pivoted into discretionary acquisitions from ground game to bolt-ons. At the end of the quarter, we maintained over $1.1 billion in liquidity, consisting of $26 million in cash on hand and $1.1 billion available on a revolving credit facility. Our asset base continues to generate solid cash flow. We expect to grow this over time. As a testament to the confidence of our asset base and credit profile, we were recently upgraded to BB- by Fitch. In mid-June, we successfully completed a reopening of our 2029 convertible notes, issuing an additional $200 million under the same terms as the original 2022 offering, including a cap call with an effective conversion price exceeding $50 per share. The proceeds were used to partially repair a revolver, and in conjunction with the offering, we repurchased 1.1 million shares. This opportunistic transaction enabled us to generate incremental annual interest and dividend savings of approximately $5 million. During my prepared remarks, I mentioned changes to guidance on differentials, LOE, production taxes, and CapEx. We also have made changes to our guidance for total annual production and annual oil production that align with our outlook on activity for the remainder of the year. Before moving to Q&A, I'd like to briefly address impairment and cash taxes. Through the lower oil prices in the second quarter, NAGRA recorded a $115.6 million non-cash impairment charge, leading us to reduce our DD&A guidance for BOE. Regarding cash taxes, based on our current analysis of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, NOG will not be subject to federal cash taxes in 2025, and we do not anticipate having a federal cash tax liability through 2028 based on our current forecast. With that, I'll turn it back to the operator for Q&A.

Operator

At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets.

Scott Hanold, Analyst — RBC Capital Markets

Yeah, thanks. I was wondering if you could help me think about the cadence into 2026. And it sounds like most of your operators have been drilling more core wells. Results have been good. I know we did take down oil production guidances. Is that really solely related to, you know, just lower activity in the well-spin? And what should we expect in the 26 there? And as you think about the setup for 26, you know, and you did, you know, mention obviously having a very similar till level could do maintenance production, but is that view an organic view, or would that be a combination of organic and inorganic activity?

Operator

I'll try to get into all those questions.

Nick O'Grady, CEO

As it pertains to the cadence for 25, as you notice, our Q2 spending was less money or more money next year, and whether that translates into, you know, growth or even by the economy.

Scott Hanold, Analyst — RBC Capital Markets

I appreciate that. And in terms of the organic or inorganic. Okay, thanks. And as a quick follow-up, it sounds like your comments in lieu to the fact that you like some of the return profiles all of a sudden the inorganic type of activity is, I don't know, being a little bit more, I won't say predictable, but more controllable. Is that right? I mean, is there sort of a strategy to look at some of the inorganic pieces a little bit more higher blend, you know, going forward?

Nick O'Grady, CEO

Yeah, I mean, I think, Scott, like, I think, look, what I think you should take away from this is, Number one, look, our operators are doing what we're governed by not just the price, but look at the risk profile for that. So I think as we look at the risk profile for...

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Charles Mead with Johnson Rice.

Charles Meade, Analyst — Johnson Rice

Good morning, Nick, to you and your whole team there. Nick, I'm going to try to go a little bit the same direction as for how much. Just an update on that now, like how much growth CapEx for 26 is in your updated 25?

Nick O'Grady, CEO

If you look at it, we've cut from peak to trough about $275 million, right?

Charles Meade, Analyst — Johnson Rice

That's the way it looked to me, but I just wanted to know if it looked to me. And then, Nick, I want to ask a question about how you're reducing your CapEx. Is this – I can think of at least three possibilities. There's one, which is maybe you're non-consenting some wells, Or number two, your fewer wells are being proposed and you're agreeing with that decision. Or maybe from your more recent JVs where you guys have these, you know, you have those provisions for input. I mean, how does the reduction in spending kind of break down on the mechanisms, how you're pulling back?

Nick O'Grady, CEO

I'll let Adam discuss this a little bit further, but it's really a combination. One, the beautiful thing about our business is that the rational, especially, I'd say, from our private operators that are under the pressure of meeting public estimates and things like that and are more focused on profitability, our private operators are doing their thing, and we're seeing a reduction in activity. And that's one of the reasons, like, for example, we have seen such stellar will have been – our consent rate is still very high, and that's important.

Adam Dirlam, Other

Yeah, I mean, the short answer is we're aligned with our operators. It's activity-based, and it's generally driven by the Williston. Everything that we've elected to, 95%, 98% effectively in the second quarter, is well above our hurdle rates. And so, you know, going back to Nick's comment, then it's a matter of what's the discretionary spending and what we're seeing on the ground game front. We're certainly seeing an acceleration, and the conversion rate is going higher, you know, booking 22 deals over seven in Q1. That being said, there's certain areas where, you know, people are looking to shed capital, and when you start running, you know, expected full cycle rates of return, that's stuff that you're effectively just not going to pursue because the full cycle return isn't there. And so it's laser focused on, you know, the assets and the near-term drilling opportunities as well as the long-dated inventory that's going to generate an acceptable rate of return on a full cycle basis.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Freeman with Raymond James.

John Freeman, Analyst — Raymond James

Thanks. Good morning, guys. I'm kind of approaching, I guess, a little bit different when I look at the cadence. So I guess if, you know, we're seeing operators start to maybe slow activity some, maybe the privates, especially as you pointed out, I guess what's interesting is it's, you know, I look over the last, you know, four or five quarters, the AFEs have been really steady right around kind of 2021 for four or five quarters. Your wells in process is basically either at or near like a record level of 53. I go back and look at the last couple of years, and there's obviously, as you would imagine, a pretty tight correlation with your wells in process and then what you all till the next quarter. I mean, every time you open around 50, you know, wells in process the following quarter, you're always 26 to 30 tills. So I guess I'm trying to understand kind of the, I don't want to call it a disconnect, but what's sort of different where activity, wells in process still looks really good, but the second half guide of kind of call it 18 tills on average in the second half relative to this really robust work in process number. Like, I guess try to help me reconcile that.

Adam Dirlam, Other

Yeah, I mean, I think what we're seeing from operators here, it's a conversation that we had in Q1, and it was we're going to maintain the schedule, right? We're going to keep our rigs for the most part, right? Every operator has a different philosophy. But by and large, they don't want to necessarily lay down a rig so that they have the optionality to the extent that, you know, oil extends to the upside, right? because it's a lot harder getting that back. And so you're seeing a relatively steady cadence of drilling. What we're seeing now are deferrals of some of these tills that were in process, wells that were, you know, tilled prior to Liberation Day, and then just more of an elongation of the spud to sales timing. So I think that's starting to come into play, especially when you think about tube development, you know, Leave no location behind. You've got to come in, drill six, eight wells, whatever it might be. Now they've got to come back and complete those wells effectively all at the same time. And so I think that's a piece of it as well. So I think it's a combination of all three of those different variables.

Nick O'Grady, CEO

But I'd also point out, John, that the till count tends to follow the previous quarter, right? So if we put on a ton of weld, then we should see an increase in our Q2. The lower spend in Q2 has more of an impact on – And I guess what Adam touched on is – I guess kind of what I was getting at.

John Freeman, Analyst — Raymond James

It seems like it would imply that you would end the year at a more elevated duck level than, I think, what you all traditionally have, which is, I guess, what I was kind of, you know, looking at. So that makes sense.

Nick O'Grady, CEO

You don't see the same type of pull forwards that you would have, you know.

John Freeman, Analyst — Raymond James

Just my other question, you know, this quarter, you know, pretty nice, over 60% of the free cash flow that went to dividends and buybacks. How will you treat that nearly $50 million settlement you're getting in 3Q? Does that kind of get put in a different bucket, or does that get kind of considered part of the free cash flow in 3Q when you're kind of thinking about the allocation of shareholder returns?

Nick O'Grady, CEO

I believe it's just working capital. So it goes into a receivable. Now it will not be in the free cash flow.

Chad Allen, CFO

No, it won't. But as far as what to do with the, John, I think, you know, I think we'll just – we'll roll it into our normal kind of capital allocation process.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Noah Hungness with Bank of America.

Noah Hungness, Analyst — Bank of America

Morning. I wanted to start off here. You guys mentioned that 25 and 26 free cash flow should be higher under the revised plan. Can you talk about the use of those funds and just where would you use it? Would it be buybacks? Would it be debt reduction?

Nick O'Grady, CEO

Yeah, I mean, I think the default use is obviously we sweep the revolver with every extra fund we get. To the extent we find inorganic opportunities, that is always generally – I don't ever want to think forward, depending on the price environment. Ultimately, that's how you create the most value.

Noah Hungness, Analyst — Bank of America

No, it sounds like you guys are positioning yourself for counter-cyclical investment, which, yeah, seems like a good setup. Then, I guess, could you just give any color on the M&A market? I know you touched on it a bit, but, I mean, how does it compare to a few months ago? And why do you think you are seeing such a robust?

Nick O'Grady, CEO

Yeah, so, I mean, it's an interesting dynamic. Color me a little bit surprised, and I think some of that is a combination of funds. Even though prices are weaker, they are not that on the money, on their assets. And we've seen everything from loyalty to some of the more partnership and drilling. The natural gas market is up to the board strip, and we've frankly seen activity in almost every we've evaluated. I don't know if you want to add to it.

Adam Dirlam, Other

The only other thing I would add, I think, is just overall seller expectations. Coming into the year, you're getting ready to launch a process in Q4 and Q1. And oil and commodities are at one price when you launch it. And then you get, you know, the bid date and it's completely reset itself. And so the bid-ask spread there is inherently wide given the volatility. Now that we've seen things, you know, settle down a bit more, I think people coming into these processes and similar levels in terms of the commodity prices come bid day, you know, you can manage those seller expectations a bit as well. And so, you know, hopefully that means that there's something to get done.

Operator

But, obviously, we're going to continue to stick to our hurdle rates and the underwriting that we typically do.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Phillips Johnston with Capital One.

Phillips Johnston, Analyst — Capital One

Hey, thanks for the time. Sorry to ask another question on quarterly cadence, but I just wanted to clarify Nick's earlier comments on production cadence for the remainder of the year. It sounds like you're expecting fourth quarter volumes will look something like what you just printed for Q2. You know, if that's the case, it seems like that would imply that Q3 volumes will be down fairly significantly from two Q levels. But I think you alluded to a slight decline in Q3 from Q2. So I just wanted to reconcile that.

Nick O'Grady, CEO

Yeah, I mean, I think, Bill, it really depends. You know, when I say similar, it really is going to depend. As you know, for us, the till cadence can vary widely, right? So it could be a situation where Q3 is modest and Q4's increase is more modest, or it could be where Q3 is a little bit deeper and Q4 is more significant. So it really just depends on the timing of those completions. So the earlier the completions come online, you know, it's just going to be – And frankly, if we can, you know, so if prices remain stronger, we may then see Q1 activity pulled forward and Q4 may stay more robust than that would ultimately. So I think it's not necessarily all bad.

Adam Dirlam, Other

Some of our private operators and that's effectively getting managed on a month-to-month basis would be the other variable to consider.

Nick O'Grady, CEO

So if prices are stronger, we could see those come off.

Phillips Johnston, Analyst — Capital One

I think just some clarification on some of your determined that it's prudent to sort of operate in a – to kind of maintain oil volumes pretty flat with the 25 average of, you know, around $75,000 a day or sort of second half levels that are closer to, you know, $72,000 a day.

Nick O'Grady, CEO

Well, I mean, I think the answer is when we talked about maintenance, we mean maintenance. So we mean versus our annual guidance. However, what I would say is that from a capital allocation perspective, if oil prices are $50 and gas prices are $4.50, we might allocate more money to gas, right? So, I mean, I think we'll do what's right for the business. But when we talk about a spend level today on a generic, talking about that, it would mean versus, but not versus where, you know, versus.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Diamond with Citi.

Paul Diamond, Analyst — Citi

Thank you. Good morning, Al. Thanks for taking the call. I just want to touch quickly on kind of the cost structure. You mentioned that absolute AFD costs were down 5% sequentially. It's somewhat split between oil and gas. Do you guys see any further runway with that downward pressure, or is it pretty much already taken at this point?

Nick O'Grady, CEO

Yeah. So, I mean, Paul, I'd rather let Jim or Adam talk about this, but the one thing I'd say is that, you know, we are, we've obviously seen a pretty material reduction in the rig count. You know, I got asked the last question about, you know, the last quarter about steel costs and tariffs and stuff like that. And I think that where we are now.

Adam Dirlam, Other

The conversations that we've been having with, you know, a handful of our JV partners, they're certainly seeing that downward pressure that typically conservative shop, right? So it's going to be a show me and it's going to come through the actuals when we start truing up our accruals. So we'll continue to accrue based on AFEs that we get in the door. But anecdotally, I think, you know, we could potentially see some something like that. That's probably something more of a 26 kind of realization.

Paul Diamond, Analyst — Citi

Got it. Makes perfect sense. And then one kind of quick one on the M&A market again. You all mentioned that there were 10 ongoing processes worth $8 billion, could we take? Is there any concentration of the structure of those larger deals, a more NANA, a more joint development, co-bids, et cetera?

Adam Dirlam, Other

Honestly, it's across the board. We're seeing a number of different NANA packages. We're also seeing a number of different kind of co-buying and minority interest buy-downs. So I don't think it's necessarily concentrated to any given basin or any given structure at this point. So we've got a buffet of options.

Nick O'Grady, CEO

Yeah, I mean, I think the one thing I would highlight, and if we really, whether we're successful at all or on one, or what I would say is that, you know, I get feedback from investors.

Operator

Final question comes from the line of Noel Parks with Tony Brothers.

Operator

Morning, Noel. Hi, good morning. How are you doing?

Noel Parks, Analyst — Tuohy Brothers

So just a lot of interesting topics and questions have come up. I guess, would you say that you're at a juncture where sort of specific, you know, post-deal related divestments are sort of receding as a driver of assets coming to market? We certainly have some very large acquisitions, especially in the Permian, that have now been digested and could conceivably be at the point where they're now looking at, you know, non-op stuff they could spin off. But I just wonder if it's been such an unusual first half of the year, if that's figuring in at all or whether, you know, those genetics aren't really affecting what they're doing.

Nick O'Grady, CEO

I don't think so. You might have seen that there was just a big Conoco-filled mid-con package. That's a perfect example of a kind of post-merger that was sort of their marathon post-merger.

Adam Dirlam, Other

Yeah, I mean, I think the way that we think about it is you've got to merge, right? Then you've got to wrap your head around the assets, and then only then can you bring a lot of these assets to market. And so, yes, you've seen, to Nick's point, some of these packages come out and fully market it. A lot of other operators are taking a different tack, whether it's, you know, through, you know, the non-op market where 20 percent of these portfolios are all made up of non-operative properties. They're also doing it in a way where they're selling down a minority interest on a unit-by-unit basis, but still retaining operatorship. And so I think operators are getting creative and not necessarily just throwing a massive asset package out into the market. And so we're seeing all of the above in terms of kind of the different structures as to how a lot of these operators are socializing their assets post-merger.

Noel Parks, Analyst — Tuohy Brothers

Got it. And I've been thinking about a lot of scrutiny I hear from the gas side, the pure-play gas producers, of associated gas in the Permian and what, you know, weaker oil might do there as far as activity. And I know in the past you guys have talked about being pretty mindful of what gas takeaway looks like when you're looking at Permian assets. Is that correlating at all with what might be happening in Appalachia with, you know, in-basin power and so forth? I was just wondering if those sort of concern about the ongoing concern about Permian gas and pricing versus, you know, the maybe new opportunities that we're seeing in Appalachia, is that playing out in the deals you see coming to market or in price expectations?

Nick O'Grady, CEO

I don't think that people, you know, ultimately know. I think they can only price based on, you know, where the differentials, You know, if it was priced into the four differentials strip in some form or fashion, I think, or if they had it directly impacting those future prices directly, I don't think we're going to be able to have any. That's right. I mean, I do think, look, as you have what you would call.

Operator

I will now turn the call back over to Nick for closing remarks.

Operator

Thank you all for joining us today.

Nick O'Grady, CEO

We look forward to talking to you in the coming weeks. And, again, thanks for your interest in our company.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.