Conference Transcript - IVR 2026-01-30

Operator

Welcome to the Invesco Mortgage Capital Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. All participants will be on the listen-only mode until the question and answer session. At that time to ask a question, press the star followed by 1 on your telephone. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. Now I'll turn the call over to Greg Seals in Investor Relations. Mr. Seals, you may begin the call.

Greg Seals, Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Operator, and to all of you joining us on Invesco Mortgage Capital's Quarterly Earnings Call. In addition to today's press release, we have provided a presentation that covers the topics we plan to address today. Press release and presentation are available on our website, InvescoMortgageCapital.com. This information can be found by going to the Investor Relations section of the website. Our presentation today will include forward-looking statements and certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please review the disclosures on slide 2 of the presentation regarding the statements and measures, as well as the appendix for appropriate reconciliations to GAAP. Finally, Invesco Mortgage Capital is not responsible for and does not edit nor guarantee the accuracy of our earnings teleconference transcripts provided by third parties. The only authorized webcasts are located on our website. Again, welcome, and thank you for joining us today. I'll now turn the call over to Invesco Mortgage Capital CEO, John Anzalon. Good morning, and welcome to Invesco Mortgage Capital's fourth quarter earnings call.

John Anzalone, CEO

I will offer brief remarks before turning the call over to our Chief Investment Officer, Brian Norris. Joining us for Q&A are President Kevin Collins, COO Dave Weill, and CFO Mark Gregson. Financial conditions improved during the quarter, supported by two Federal Reserve rate cuts, solid corporate earnings, improved financial conditions, and strong economic growth. Equity markets extended their gains, credit spreads remained tight, and agency mortgages outperformed treasuries, aided by lower rate volatility in a supportive supply and demand environment. Inflation readings trended modestly lower during the quarter, with headline CPI at 2.7 percent and core CPI at 2.6 percent. Investors responded by reducing inflation expectations, reflected in lower break-even rates on inflation-protected Treasury bonds. Even with continued economic growth, the U.S. labor market continued to exhibit weakness as the economy lost 67,000 jobs during the quarter. Despite inflation running above target, the FOMC cut the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points at each of its last three meetings in 2025, citing labor market weakness. The Federal Reserve also ended its quantitative tightening program after reducing its Treasury and agency mortgage holdings by more than $2.2 trillion since mid-2022, specifying that mortgage paydowns will be reinvested into Treasury bills going forward. Markets are pricing in an additional 50 basis points of cuts through 2026. Interest rates were generally stable during the quarter, and the decline in interest rate volatility that began after the sharp increase in April continued into year-end. With market expectations shifting towards a more accommodative monetary policy stance, agency mortgages delivered its strongest calendar year performance relative to U.S. treasuries since 2010. Key drivers included a decline in interest rate volatility, brought inflows into fixed income, and increased demand from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's investment portfolios. Agency CMBS spreads finished the year slightly tighter as markets gained confidence in the path towards monetary policy easing and improved clarity in U.S. trade policy. Higher issuance levels are readily absorbed, given money manager inflows and continued bank demand for assets with stable cash flows. These factors led to a 3.7% increase in our book value per common share to $8.72, and combined with our recently increased dividend of $0.36, resulted in an 8% economic return for the quarter. We modestly increased leverage to seven times, consistent with the constructive investment environment. At year end, our $6.3 billion portfolio included $5.4 billion in agency mortgages, $900 million in agency CMBS, and our liquidity position remain robust with $453 million in unrestricted cash and unencumbered assets. We remain positive on agency mortgages following the sharp decline in volatility, though we view near-term risks as balanced given recent strong performance in the announcement of $200 billion in agency mortgage purchases by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Agency CMBS continues to provide attractive risk-adjusted deals and diversification benefits. Longer term, we believe conditions for agency mortgages will remain favorable given lower interest rate volatility and expectations for broadening demand and a steeper yield curve. I'll now turn the call over to Brian for additional detail.

Brian Norris, Analyst — Other

Thanks, John, and good morning to everyone listening to the call. I'll begin on slide four, which provides an overview of the interest rate markets over the past year. As depicted in the chart on the upper left, despite two 25 basis point cuts to the Fed funds rate during the fourth quarter, the 10-year Treasury yield was largely unchanged, increasing less than two basis points to end the year at 417, 40 basis points lower than where it started the year. Although 10-year yields were relatively stable over the quarter, the yield curve continued to steepen meaningfully, with two-year Treasury yields falling 14 basis points, while 30-year yields increased 11 basis points. The difference between two-year and 30-year treasury yields ended the quarter at 137 basis points, 83 basis points steeper than a year ago. The steeper yield curve benefits longer-term investments such as agency RMBS and agency CMBS and is supportive of our strategy. The chart in the upper right reflects changes in short-term funding rates over the past year, with the fourth quarter highlighted in gray. While financing capacity for our assets remained ample and haircuts unchanged, one-month repo spreads began to indicate broad-based funding pressures in late September and continued into October, widening approximately five basis points. Positively, the Fed's decision to end quantitative tightening in December alleviated the pressure and its announcement at the December meeting to initiate purchases of shorter-term treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves, but to notable improvement in repo spreads as we head into 2026. Lastly, the bottom right chart on slide four highlights the significant decline in interest rate volatility since April, which provided tailwind for risk assets, including HCMBS, in the second half of the year. Although we do not anticipate further declines in 2026, the current level of volatility is in line with longer-term averages and remain supportive of the agency RMDS sector. Slide 5 provides more detail on the agency mortgage market. In the upper left chart, we show 30-year current coupon performance versus U.S. Treasuries over the past year, highlighting the fourth quarter in gray. Agency mortgages delivered strong performance both for the quarter and the full year, driven by reduced interest rate volatility that kept money manager and mortgage reap demand robust, while net supply remained below expectations. Two additional cuts to the Fed funds rate, the end of quantitative tightening, and the beginning of monthly T-bill purchases by the Federal Reserve, all announced during the fourth quarter, provided significant support for risk assets in general, and agency mortgages in particular, as funding markets improved notably. Although bank and overseas purchases remained subdued, increased demand from the GSEs provided additional support, resulting in strong returns for the sector. Net GSE purchases began to increase late in the second quarter and accelerated in the second half of the year, providing notable support for agency mortgage valuations. Not only did the unexpected demand provide an immediate lift to valuations, but it also strengthened expectations that the GSE's retained portfolios could serve as a stabilizing backstop for the sector, helping to reduce spread volatility going forward and providing support that the agency mortgage market has lacked since Federal Reserve and bank participation waned in 2022. This supply and demand environment also helped support the TBA dollar rule market, as you can see in the lower right chart. Implied financing improved notably during the quarter, whereas for most of 2025, financing via the dollar rule market was relatively unattractive compared to funding via short-term repo markets. As illustrated, that advantage narrowed late in the quarter, and the shift is indicative of strong demand for agency mortgage collateral amid limited net supply. As this environment persists, the sector becomes more attractive, allowing investors to fund purchases at implied levels significantly below short-term funding rates. Lastly, 30-year mortgage rates decline modestly to end the quarter near 6.25%, as tighter mortgage spreads offset slight increases in the 10-year treasury yield and primary-secondary spread. This decline in mortgage rates continued to weigh on the performance of higher coupons relative to those lower in the coupon stack, with discount coupons modestly outperforming premiums as investors were reluctant to increase prepayment risk in their portfolios. In the upper right-hand chart, we show higher coupon specified pool payups, which are the premium investors pay for specified pools over generic collateral, and are representative of the bonds that IVR owns. Positively, payoffs improved during the quarter, offsetting some of the underperformance of higher coupons relative to lower coupons. It gives an increased investor demand for additional prepayment protection in premium dollar price bonds. We continue to believe that owning prepayment protection via carefully selected specified pools, particularly in premium priced holdings, remains an attractive investment for mortgage investors and helps mitigate convexity risk inherent in agency mortgage portfolios. Slide six details our agency RMBS investments as of year end. Our agency RMBS portfolio increased 11% quarter over quarter as we invested proceeds from ATM issuance and paydowns and modestly increased leverage as the investment environment for agency mortgages improved. Purchases were primarily focused in five and five and a half percent coupons with a decline in our six and six and a half percent allocation, a result of paydowns and the overall growth in the portfolio. Although we continue to focus our specified pool allocation on prepayment characteristics that are expected to perform well in both premium and discount environments, price appreciation in our holdings has resulted in a higher percentage of our pools valued at premium dollar prices. Therefore, we continue to favor specified pools with lower loan balances particularly in our higher coupon exposures given their superior predictability of future cash flows while we remain well diversified across collateral stories with limited changes during the quarter overall we remain constructive on agency rbs as supply and demand technicals are favorable and lower levels of interest rate volatility should continue to encourage demand for the sector we believe near-term risks are balanced following recent outperformance with nominal spreads tightening approximately 15 basis points during the fourth quarter and another 10 basis points year-to-date. Despite the decline in risk premiums, levered returns on agency RMBS hedged with swaps remain attractive, with the current coupon spreads to 5- and 10-year SOFR blend ending the year near 140 basis points, equating to levered gross returns in the mid- to upper teens. Slide 7 details our agency's CMBS portfolio. risk premiums were largely unchanged during the quarter as higher issuance levels were well absorbed via money manager inflows and continued bank demand for stable cash flow profiles given more attractive relative value in agency RMBS we did not add to our agency CMBS position during the quarter and our allocation declined modestly due to the growth in the overall portfolio despite the lack of new purchases we continue to believe agency CMBS offers many benefits mainly through its inherent prepayment protection and fixed maturities, which reduce our sensitivity to interest rate volatility. Levered gross ROEs are in the low double digits and consistent with ROEs and lower coupon agency RMBS. We have been disciplined in adding exposure only when the relative value between agency CMBS and agency RMBS accurately reflects their unique risk profiles. Financing capacity has been robust as we continue to fund our positions with multiple counterparties at attractive levels. We will continue to monitor the sector for opportunities to increase our allocation to the extent relative value becomes attractive, recognizing the overall benefits to the portfolio as the sector diversifies risks associated with agency RMDS. Slide 8 details our funding and hedge book at quarter end. Repurchase agreements collateralized by our agency RMBS and agency CNBS investments increased from $5.2 to $5.6 billion, consistent with the increase in our total assets, while the total notion of our hedges increased from $4.4 billion to $4.9 billion. Our hedge ratio was relatively stable during the quarter, increasing slightly from 85% to 87%, as market expectations for monetary policy in 2026 were largely unchanged during the quarter. The table on the right provides further detail in our hedges at year-end. The composition of our hedges remained weighted towards interest rate swaps, with 78 percent of our hedges consisting of interest rate swaps on a notional basis and 57 percent on a dollar duration basis. Swap spreads widened during the quarter, serving as a tailwind for our performance. Despite the recent widening, we remain comfortable focusing the majority of our hedges and interest rate swaps, as we continue to believe swaps rates are historically tight and offer an attractive hedge profile relative to treasury futures. To conclude our prepared remarks, financial market volatility declined notably in the second half of 2025, resulting in strong performance for agency mortgages. IVR's economic return of 8% during the fourth quarter is a result of that positive momentum, which has continued into 2026 with book value up approximately four and a half percent since year-end through Wednesday of this week. While agency mortgage valuations have improved significantly over the past year, we believe the current environment is reflective of a more normalized investment landscape that continues to provide investors with attractive leveraged returns. The January announcement of the MBS purchase program by the GSEs was well received by the market, and the reduction in interest rate and spread volatility has broadened the investor base and enabled modestly higher leverage. The conclusion of quantitative tightening in the fourth quarter, along with announced T-bill purchases by the Fed, helped solidify funding markets and tightened repo spreads, serving as another tailwind for our strategy. Lastly, we believe our liquidity position provides substantial cushion for any potential market stress, while also allowing sufficient capital to deploy in our target assets as the investment environment evolves. While we view near-term risks as somewhat balanced, we believe the current environment of low volatility in interest rates and spreads, along with further steepening of the yield curve and support of supply and demand technicals, will provide a positive backdrop for agency mortgages over the long term. Thank you for your continued support of Invesco Mortgage Capital, and now we will open the line for Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question please press star 1. You will be prompted to record your name. To withdraw your question you may press star 2. Again press star 1 to ask a question and one moment please for our first question. Our first question comes from Trevor Cranston with Assistant Citizens JMP. Please go ahead.

Trevor Cranston, Analyst — Citizens JMP

Hey thanks good morning. I think in the prepared comments. I heard you characterize your view on MBS, you know, posted GSE buying announcements as a little more balanced. Can you talk about, you know, how you're approaching the leverage level post the tightening that's occurred and kind of where you guys are finding value within the coupon stack with marginal deployments today? Thanks.

Brian Norris, Analyst — Other

Hey, driver, it's Brian um yeah so you know we we did take leverage up a little bit in the fourth quarter just reflective of that positive environment that we've continued to kind of see um in the second half of the year um and so you know I think we're still relatively comfortable there you know I think you know with with the announcement with spreads a little bit tighter we we do um kind of let leverage drift a little bit so as book value increases uh leverage could come down just just a little bit but um you know i think we're still pretty comfortable because the environment overall even though spreads are tighter it's pretty supportive uh with limited spread volatility as far as um the coupon stack goes i think you know you know i mentioned that there's uh been some notable improvement in the tba dollar roll market um and that's really been across the coupon stack but primarily in the belly so call it three and a half through five and a halves um and so you know i think we're finding uh pretty good value in those securities okay and i was curious within the um you know the specified pool portfolio particularly in higher coupons if uh you know if you guys have seen any surprises within um prepaid reports or things have kind of behaved pretty much as you as you expected them to yeah i wouldn't necessarily really say that we've seen any surprises. You know, we certainly saw an increase over the, you know, second half of the year in higher coupons, you know, in our sixes and six-and-a-halves, prepayments did increase. But, you know, because we do own, you know, prepay protection, they certainly were less impacted than what you would see in generic collateral. You know, loan balance continues to, like I said in the prepared remarks, continues to be you know superior uh predictability of cash flows um and we continue to feel that way you know i think um you know certain you know fico and ltv and even geo stories you know a little bit less so uh but still you know relatively in line with with expectations heading into it that's helpful thank you thank you our next question comes from jason weaver with jones trading your line is opening me after your question hey guys good morning uh maybe just the T off of Trevor's first question there.

Jason Weaver, Analyst — JonesTrading

Year to date with New Capital Invested, have you continued rotating down in coupon? And maybe you can talk a little bit about the trade-off you see between elevated prepay risk and the positioning and some of those five and a half and six pools?

Brian Norris, Analyst — Other

Sure. Yeah. Hey, Jason. This is Brian. Good morning. Yeah. You know, I think certainly there There is a push by the administration on housing affordability, and they are directly focused on the mortgage rate and bringing that down. So to the extent that that impacts higher coupons, I think the goal is likely to not necessarily reduce the allocation by selling, but to future purchases come a little bit lower in the coupon stack so you know like i said earlier you know more more belly um and lower coupons um like i said you know the tba dollar roll market is pretty attractive in those coupons right now so that's providing a nice boost as implied funding levels are significantly below so far got it thank you for that and the only other thing is uh did you give an updated estimated

John Anzalone, CEO

book value as of today uh i did say we were up um about four and a half percent through wednesday i missed that one but i appreciate the color thank you of course thank you your next question comes from doug harter with ubs your line is open you may ask your question sure thank you you know we kind of continued kind of modest couple actions in the quarter you know, some small common issuance and some small preferred buyback, you know, to talk about how you're thinking about, you know, capital structure and kind of the ability

Jason Steward, Analyst — Compass Point

to raise capital going forward.

John Anzalone, CEO

Yeah. Hey, Doug, it's John. Good morning. Yeah. You know, I think in terms of capital structure, you know, we feel like we're in a better place than we've been. It's been improving so that's you know we're we're happy about that as far as the atm goes you know we do selectively access the atm when the common stock provides clear benefits to shareholders um and we we continue to view the atm as the most efficient mechanism for raising capital um you know it was it was a pretty mod you know pretty modest um issuance during during q4 and um You know, conditions were slightly better and have been better in Q1, so you'll get an update later this month, or actually in February when we report our monthly dividend. We'll provide more color on that. Great. I appreciate that, John.

Operator

Thank you. Again, if you'd like to ask a question, press star 1. Our next question comes from Jason Stewart with Compass Point. Your line is open. Let me ask your question.

Jason Steward, Analyst — Compass Point

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Following up on the capital raising and just putting it in context with the investment environment, is the decision on the ATM solely where the stock is or is part of this equation what the pro forma ROEs look like? And on that front, would additional government action like an increase to the limit of the GSCs or removal of the PSPA cap or like a standing repo facility, change your view of a spread range for MBS, and change your view of capital raising on the second half of that?

John Anzalone, CEO

Yeah, I'll start with the first part, and I'll let Brian tackle the harder part, second You know, I think it is a combination of things when we make a decision on whether the issue, I mean, it obviously price to book is important. I mean, that's the first metric. And then after that, it's are there accreted investment opportunities? And so we tend to look at it as through the prism of a, you know, how long is the payback period in terms of, okay, we're making accretive investments, and, you know, if we are trading slightly below book we need accretive investments um if you're trading above book and so you know you you'd like to have your creative investments um but yeah so i mean that's how we kind of look at it it's a combination of those two things um and then the second part of the question yeah yeah i would just add to that just uh this brian hey jason um yeah i would just add you know but

Brian Norris, Analyst — Other

those are certainly kind of more quantitative aspects of it. There is a qualitative aspect as well. Just, you know, I mean, I guess even economies of scale on reducing expenses, improving liquidity in the stock. Those are all things that kind of go into the factor on whether we are utilizing the ATM or not. As far as, you know, available ROEs, you know, I did mention And as of year-end, you know, spreads versus SOFR were still pretty attractive around 140. We've seen about 10 basic points of tightening since then, so, you know, knock a percent or two off the available ROEs that we're seeing. But you know, I think with the presence of the GSEs being more substantial now and being more prescriptive, that does help reduce volatility, brings, you know, greater comfort into potentially, you know, higher leverage. So, I think there's a lot of positive things that, you know, despite slightly lower ROEs that, you know, there's a lot of reasons to kind of like the space right now.

Jason Steward, Analyst — Compass Point

Yeah. That's helpful. Thanks for that color, Brian. But on the government intervention side or the presence of GSEs, is there anything that would sort of get you to the next level where it's less of a backstop view and more of the view that it's a tighter spread range and a lower spread range?

Brian Norris, Analyst — Other

Yeah, lower than where we are now. Yeah, certainly, you know, if there was announcement that, you know, they increased the caps from currently to $450 billion, you know, that would be a signal, you know, and maybe as we move along here throughout the year, you know, if we start to see that the pace of purchases has increased notably, I think in December, the GSE has added a combined $24 billion between loans and and mortgages uh agency mortgages um so you know i think you know if if we were to see that pace continue to increase that would be a pretty clear signal that at some point the administration

Eric Hagen, Analyst — BTIG

or the treasury and the fhfa plan to to increase those caps and so that could potentially take us um into another spread regime and take us another 10 to 15 masonous titer from here okay thanks for the uh caller appreciate it thank you and our last question comes from eric hagen with btig your line is opening me ask your question hey thanks good morning guys um all right so spreads have already tightened a lot how should we think about the book value sensitivity and just like the the overall upside to further spread tightening like would you say that the sensitivity or the magnitude is kind of similar you know as when spreads were you know relatively wider or how should we think about the magnitude because of the fact that spreads yeah kind of Hey, Eric.

Brian Norris, Analyst — Other

Sorry, didn't mean to cut you off there, but hey, good morning. Thanks for calling in. I would say the magnitude of the change in book value to spread changes is the same, you know, just given that our leverage is relatively in line with where it has been here recently. But, you know, our expectation for further spread tightening is significantly reduced. and so you know we kind of we saw a lot of spread tightening in 2025 um you know we certainly uh would not expect that to occur unless there are again like i just mentioned you know significant changes in in the caps for the gse's and and their use of those uh you know that those retained portfolios um so you know we're not really expecting um significant spread tightening from here you know the 200 billion of purchases is largely priced into the market as we sit here today um so you know unless uh we start to see you know banks uh come in and greater um size and also increase caps you know we don't we don't necessarily expect um spreads to tighten much you know the expectation is that you know the longer we kind of stay at these spread levels you know we'll see kind of money managers um start to start to sell a little bit into it um and and kind of keep us here as opposed to taking us tighter it's really helpful commentary thank you guys of course and at this time i'll turn the call back over to the speakers okay well thank you everybody for joining us and we will talk to you next one thank you thank you and this does conclude today's conference we thank you for your participation

Operator

at this time you may disconnect your line