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Investor Event Transcript

Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA)

Investor Event Transcript 2026-06-30 For: 2026-06-30
Added on July 18, 2026

Conference Transcript - SERA 2026-06-03

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

Thank you for joining the Jefferies Healthcare Conference. My name is Lauren Timmons. I work on the Life Science Tools and Diagnostics team here at Jefferies. We're happy to have the team from Sarah Prognostics here with us today, President and CEO Zenia Lingard, and Dr. Tiffany Inglis, Chief Medical Officer. So I guess just to start, maybe looking back on one cue, you had the prime results published and you kind of completed a comprehensive business review, redirecting investments from clinical to commercial. Maybe walk a little bit about the strategic rationale behind this shift.

Zhenya Lindgardt, CEO

Great to see you Lauren and thank you everyone for tuning in. The Q1 results were a culmination of many years of work on the prime study and specifically the redirect of the investment completed our shift over the last two to three years post the interim completion of the prime study or stoppage at the interim point for success to start driving commercialization in full force with the newly published results. For us, it was a final step in a multi-year effort. So it is the right powder we need to drive adoption in a clinical practice.

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

And I guess as part of these operational changes, you also reduced part of your workforce. How has this restructuring allowed you to prioritize your focus, and how does it impact day-to-day operations? Commercialization is our top priority.

Zhenya Lindgardt, CEO

It doesn't mean we will stop evidence generation farthest from that. We are shifting our R&D efforts to collaborative projects, and that allows us to save on some of our capacity and the resourcing, and we're deployed to start growing our field sales and medical presence, as well as grow a lot of really critical functions like access, contracting, and others.

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

And these recent actions also extend your cash runway through 2029. What are some of the key adoption milestones and commercial targets you expect to achieve with this extended capital?

Zhenya Lindgardt, CEO

Well, of course, we are driving really hard on reimbursement and coverage milestones this and the next year to really help us jumpstart that revenue inflection. Our pipeline and Dr. Inglis will talk about a lot of our efforts engaging with CMOs of Medicaid payers, as well as commercial payers and legislators to share the breakthrough that preterm tests could bring to their constituents and to their member populations. So number one, I would say, is look out for the reimbursement milestones. for some of these leading indicators coverage indicators that spell out opportunity for future volume to come with reimbursement of course number two is adoption it's getting more physicians on board using our terrific data and data points that we published in q1 showing that we reduce preterm birth before 32 weeks by over half are really resonating with the physicians so growing numbers of both large and medium-sized practices across our

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

target states is something that that will continue updating all of you on and that will tell you that we are on the right track perfect and that's a good segue Dr. Inglis the landmark prime study and you alluded to some of the metrics that was published in there what has the on-the-ground response been from OBGYNs now that the results are out there?

Tiffany Inglis, Analyst — Other

Yeah, it's been fantastic. I think a big part of the first few months after publication in January have been awareness, right? Not everybody reads every journal every day. So just getting that notification out there, getting them aware of the test. Sarah has worked really hard with MFMs for years to do the science right and to make this test and make it effective and find the right interventions. And now it's about getting to OBGYNs and midwives who are seeing the patients that need the test and really making sure they understand that it's available what it does how easy it is to integrate into their practice and and what it can mean for women's health and then I also think you know to add to expand a little bit on yours it's also getting awareness to legislators and state Medicaid agency folks who are making decisions and payers this test isn't just an improvement in clinical outcomes it is a way to address affordability in health care which we know is so important as we think about the maternal crisis in the country.

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

No, that's a great point. And I guess from a health economics perspective, Prime demonstrated a number needed to screen of 4.2 to save a NICU day. How powerful is this metric when sitting down with health plan administrators and others?

Tiffany Inglis, Analyst — Other

Yeah, so when you think about, it was about four patients needed to screen to prevent one NICU day, and it's 38 and a half or just slightly under 40 patients needed to screen to prevent one NICU admission. And when you think about that in comparison to the things used today to try to predict preterm birth, the most likely comparator is transvaginal ultrasound with vaginal progesterone for short cervix. That catches about 8% of patients who will end up having a preterm birth. Our test catches about 77%. And the number needed to screen to prevent a NICU admission for transvaginal ultrasound is 150. And this test is 40. So from that perspective, I think it's really, really important to understand the efficiency and the effectiveness of knowing who. And then what Prime showed is that the intervention works and that you can actually do something about it, which I think has always been the biggest thing is, great, we can know the risk, but can you do anything? Prime showed, yeah, we can.

Zhenya Lindgardt, CEO

And just to underscore, Lauren, the equation here, transvaginal ultrasound costs about $200 to $800 every time. And it's a serial, meaning every two weeks and sometimes more frequently, OBGYNs call back the patient and monitor the patient from trimester two in pregnancy, so sometimes for several months. 150 patients with three to six ultrasounds at least, that is an enormous cost. So when Tiffany speaks about efficiency, cost efficiency, this is one blood test compared to serial transvaginal ultrasound, an enormous cost-effectiveness argument for us that we're bringing to payers, and it's resonating.

Tiffany Inglis, Analyst — Other

Yeah, and it's also highlighting that we're finding it before the symptoms exist, which is truly preventative care.

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

And you're also publishing sub-analyses on Prime regarding Medicaid outcomes, first-time Could you speak about that a bit and kind of how will this aid commercial efforts?

Tiffany Inglis, Analyst — Other

Yeah, so there'll be more to come in the near weeks that we can share more details on. But there's two Medicaid sub-analyses that are in review for print right now. There's two more that will be presentations at some point. And then there's multiple others that are beyond the sub-analyses looking at the cost savings of this model. a 20 percent NICU reduction is is absolutely impactful and even you know with any additional spend we may see on care for these patients who do screen higher risk we see significant cost savings and we're excited for what we're gonna have there so there's lots and lots to come in the next few weeks we're sitting on a lot of really interesting data that helps us understand how the test works, why the intervention works, and how we can better supply physicians with an understanding about why they should use it.

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

And that's perfect. And to round out the data discussion, so you have a wide breadth of studies across Prime and AVERT supporting the data set. Do you think this completes, in terms of clinical utility and clinical evidence for payers, the data set? Or do you think additional real-world evidence studies will be needed?

Tiffany Inglis, Analyst — Other

I think some of the deeper sub-analyses, bringing some of our studies together and pooling some of that data, and we're doing all that work right now, can really help them to see that the one thing that's really interesting about Prime is, and we've talked a lot about Prime as we should, but it is the third of three clinical intervention studies that showed impact in NICU utilization and neonatal morbidity. And so when we think about how we talk about this test, it's not a one and done. There are multiple studies that have shown impact. And repeated impact in studies with different setups is hard to do if it's not real. And so it provides a lot of strength in that this test is very, very good at what it does and that the intervention put forward does impact. So I think as we look at this next year and we do some of the things, And then I think the other thing that will help is we're really partnering with folks to do some implementation and real-world evidence. And I think that also helps in this space, in the women's health space, for people to understand how to deploy innovation. Unfortunately, there's not as much innovation in women's health as there is in other areas. So sometimes it takes a little bit more hand-holding, and that's what we want to do.

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

And kind of transitioning to the commercialization. So a really important update just happened across Illinois' legislature. mandated Medicare coverage for proteomic blood tests with published peer-reviewed clinical results. Maybe talk to us about that a little bit. Sarah fits that perfectly. So kind of how that's going to change your timeline from initial to active reimbursement and how that will look like for the rest of the states.

Tiffany Inglis, Analyst — Other

Let me start. So the Illinois State Senate and House last week at the end of session included our test as a screening tool for preterm birth as a mandated coverage for Medicaid patients in Illinois and essentially then any treatments that those higher risk patients would be needed based on research and evidence, which is really we're the only ones in that space so it's really really exciting and the governor has it on his list of things to sign off the expectations that he will be signing it and so from there I think it's there is a very clear path to all of the things that have to happen to truly get live and get orders and and get coverage from each of the managed care organizations and so working through that list now um we've been aware that this was out there um we're we've been watching and waiting for to see what illinois will do um but yeah and uh you can imagine that we're working with multiple states to accelerate legislation like this to be adopted this was part of our strategy to ensure that this public health test and the impact it can have makes it to the pregnant moms and babies as soon as possible.

Zhenya Lindgardt, CEO

You mentioned timeline. As Tiffany mentioned, there's a governor's signature, which is coming within 60 days, and our implementation is starting immediately. So the next steps will be to work with every payer in the state that carries the lives and covers the lives and engage with them on the prime data, on the health economics argument, and start contracting. That is not an overnight process. But it's certainly exciting to see four and a half months post-publication to see the legislators move so quickly to make this test available. I think it's a huge signal in how Medicaid and government stakeholders are taking this problem seriously and taking reimbursement requirement into their hands, which will, of course, help us accelerate reimbursement wins.

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

And also on the roadmap, you know, you recently launched your third partnership program, which spans 350 providers. What are the subsequent steps to that to ensure successful clinical implementation in these networks?

Zhenya Lindgardt, CEO

And I'll let Tiffany supplement what I'm about to say, but we've talked quite a bit about the importance of educating the providers and getting them on board with programs like this to show that the clinical workflow implementation is seamless, that this simple finger prick blood test does not add to their visits and allows them to take care of the patients better to either give them the peace of mind and the patient the peace of mind that they're not higher risk. and it's a normal pregnancy, or they might need extra care. So we anticipate that the rollout across the 350 providers will take place in stages. That's the current plan. Our team is training. Actually, some of them are being trained in a week and a half. So we look forward to first getting all of the providers on board with a test, equipping them with ability to order the test very quickly. And of course, getting the first few orders allows them to start feeling very comfortable ordering it for all of their low-risk patients.

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

And you're also actively engaged in discussions with 13 payers across 15 states. Can you discuss the cadence of these conversations and kind of typical timeline from an initial pilot to statewide coverage?

Tiffany Inglis, Analyst — Other

Yeah, so when you think about the work with payers, it's not a fast process. They have, and importantly so, you know, they have very specific processes they follow when they change their coverage, whether that's for a pilot or whether that's for broad changes. And so we, you know, working through their processes and really just slowly sort of chipping away and as we go, providing all the additional evidence that, you know, you asked about before is really helpful. So, but it is very clear when we talk to them, you know, NICU spend and trend is a huge issue in this country. It's a huge issue for payers. This test very pointedly with a very easy to implement safe and inexpensive intervention and test solves that problem for them in a way that they've never seen before and drives that into the cost saving cap, I would say column of that work. And so it's very clear that as they see the science, we're seeing this, I call this tipping point from why would I do that to why am I not doing that? And so that's what I've been seeing over the last four months is really thinking through that. But then, you know, you still have to just acknowledge the fact that payers don't always move quickly through to just standing up a pilot. They want to be conscientious of their process and their regulatory requirements. And so we're just really trying to work alongside them.

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

And as you onboarded Chief Commercial Officer Lee Anderson, what are some of his immediate priorities in terms of adoption of preterm this year?

Zhenya Lindgardt, CEO

So with our strategy being incredibly clear on what are the target geographies, he has been focused on building the team around to make sure that we've got very strong presence in those geographies and have fundamental scaling, commercialization scaling capabilities in our commercial operations team, in our access team, to be able to support that inflection point. That's number one. Number two is, of course, partnering with the medical team to ensure that all of our customers, large institutions in particular, are well-equipped and driving a lot of programs to educate both residents and existing OBGYNs as well as MFMs across the country. That has been his focus. So supporting physician implementation being number one priority, and then partnering with medical and access teams to support pull through on the coverage programs that we launch.

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

And as you're deploying these regional managers into these target states, what metrics are you tracking to evaluate productivity?

Zhenya Lindgardt, CEO

A lot of the ones that you probably anticipate, a number of new customers, volume per customer, the speed with which we can move the customers from the initial engagement to ordering at scale for all of their low-risk patients. And we look forward, as you know, we don't guide yet on revenue and volume, but we look forward to seeing those metrics move consistently over the next few quarters in order to be able to start sharing them with the investors and the community.

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

And regarding the national field sales force, so apart from the targeted approach that you're going after now, do you anticipate certain milestones before pivoting from targeted geography approach to broader adoption?

Zhenya Lindgardt, CEO

Yes, there are a couple of triggers that could accelerate it and really push us towards that. number one would be a national payer coverage commences and we need to drive pull through across more states than than the existing targeted set number two is guidelines as you know it's a huge priority for us they don't happen overnight it's a diligent work with a lot of publications with a lot of opinion leader engagement. So both of those are a key milestone that would switch us to national presence. But more broadly, I would say there is so much volume, so much work for us to do right now that we can create substantial volume with the existing states. And given the news with Illinois is if a few more states start converting coverage that are outside of our target set, that might push us over as well.

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

And kind of touching on a few of those points, can you provide us an update on the Elevans Health Collaboration, how you're leveraging their network to drive adoption?

Tiffany Inglis, Analyst — Other

Yeah, so, you know, there's a long partnership there, and really just working through their process. They are looking at their broader coverage process at this time, I believe, and just working through things like Illinois coverage, right, and where they're going to potentially have plans or partners with their Blues partners and how we'll work forward with those health plans. And then thinking about pilots in those markets where they may want to test. So really just the same process we have with the other payers, but definitely, you know, with those tight relationships and collaboration in play.

Zhenya Lindgardt, CEO

What helps us is that in the last couple of years, we developed implementation plans, understanding specifically where the priorities are for Elevance plans across geographies and where we together can achieve higher impact faster.

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

And you mentioned it already, but ACOG guidelines, so they recently updated clinical consensus to emphasize individual prenatal care. How perfectly does this align with kind of preterm and with the shift towards personalized pregnancy for ACOG as a whole?

Tiffany Inglis, Analyst — Other

Yeah, so in 2025, before Prime was published, ACOG had a publication come out with Taylor Prenatal Care Clinical Consensus. It's the first of its kind to say, maybe we shouldn't give everybody the same care. And it was really a nod and an acknowledgement to the fact that personalizing care makes sense and we do see value in it from a research perspective and so our study in prime just continues to grow that body of evidence and it fits perfectly into that space of of why and how you could personalize the preterm birth risk and then deploy again a safe effective inexpensive bundle of interventions that works and actually shows that you can change the trajectory of that care for mom and baby i think maybe to add this is a title shift for the society and it's a first publication umbrella publication noting the shift to personalization now all of the individual

Zhenya Lindgardt, CEO

guideline bulletins will need to catch up with that so the society will be very busy updating them over the next decade i would say but a plus could be that this spells that the fit of our test could mean acceleration of them, taking a look at some of the areas that need updating the most.

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

And I guess coinciding with that, Dr. Inglis, from a practice standpoint, how easily does the preterm blood draw at 18 to 20 weeks for patients and subsequent intervention protocol seamlessly integrate into current pregnancy protocols?

Tiffany Inglis, Analyst — Other

Yeah, so between 18 and 21 weeks, patients are getting mid-pregnancy ultrasounds. They're often being seen in the office. And even as you look at in that tailored prenatal care bulletin or clinical consensus, they actually posted what like an example patient experience or flow could look like. And you'll see there's, you know, there's a lab test, an ultrasound, and a visit that all fall in that window. And that's just an example. It wasn't meant to be how you're supposed to. Everyone has to do it. Again, it's an example of how to personalize. And so when you think about that, that the timing of the test is good. it makes sense to have the timing where it is from a placental placentation implant and then from what we see in the blood you know that's why we know that window is the perfect window and then when we take that blood at that time it also aligns beautifully with then the fact that patients who are identified as higher risk they do recommend increased frequency of visits and then tailoring that prescription care to them. So from that perspective, we are not seeing physicians struggle. And then the implementation package, we also have a separate implementation package for providers. So as we're getting people live, we're going in and we're providing them all of those materials so that they can provide the patient with the education they need, the staff with the education they need, and make it seamless and work within their flow. and do you expect to be a hurdle for the inertia of legacy preterm birth implementations that are happening now uh such as clinical history or cervical length which are the majority of at risk patients are undergoing so we excluded those patients from our studies um and we we do not view and i don't think the society or the leaders in the mfm space view this as a competitor to that test this is truly an augmentation transvaginal ultrasound only identifies about eight percent of subsequent preterm births it really is not the end-all be-all and understanding who's really at risk we're missing 50 to 60 percent of preterm births today until they show up in labor and oh by the way a short cervix is already a physical sign of preterm birth so from that perspective this is truly going i think of it as going upstream and really look getting to that preventative place. And we're working with those leaders in the space that have spent their lives studying transvaginal ultrasound and progesterone. And they are super supportive of the test and the science and where this is going. And I don't view it as a competitor at all. I think that it is very helpful to define the population that we've been missing for years.

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

And I guess just to round out, if you think about kind of realistic timeline for ACOG and SMFN and some of these other guidelines, what can you kind of anticipate there?

Tiffany Inglis, Analyst — Other

ACOG reviews their guidelines, their practice bulletins, every two to five years, and they do not deviate from that structure. And we have had great conversations with them. We are working with authors and leaders in the space. They are very aware of the test. They see how we look at implementation and how that can help them define what they'll say over the next year into but I don't expect them to deviate from their timelines they they are very conservative they are self-described slow and they do that you know because that works for them and they feel like it gives them time to really understand what that implementation looks like and so again this is our time to just really make sure we dive deep into the data we have publish these sub-analyses get publish publish publish get everything out we can and then also work with providers in the field to understand how is this working for them? How do we help them? How do we make sure the awareness is there?

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

That's a perfect segue. So in the meantime, you're taking an omni-channel approach to marketing, direct consumer-facing platforms like the SheMD podcast. How is patient-directed awareness helping drive awareness of preterm?

Zhenya Lindgardt, CEO

A lot of, I won't speak to physicians. I will let Dr. Inglis speak to that. But a lot of physicians tell us that they would prefer that the patient comes in educated about the risks of preterm birth so that they don't need to spend as much of their precious time in the conversation describing and educating them for the first time about the risks of preterm birth. So we're taking that on to help the physicians to make sure that when the physician mentions this is a great test to help understand your risk for a low-risk patient, she already knows about it. So we think that creating the broad awareness is an absolutely essential part of commercialization. We need to start punching above our weight of our budget to get out there and make sure that it becomes a household name, that women know as much about preterm birth as gestational diabetes, as NIBT testing. As you know, it took years, multiple companies, to get the society's awareness of it. Right now, unfortunately, it's a desert. Women are not aware of the risk of one out of ten will give birth prematurely. It's a lot more frequent than any genetic abnormalities that are currently routinely screened for. So there's a lot of work for us to do. And when we do lay media and consumer outreach, we're catching OBGYNs as well. Because guess what? These days, physicians are online on their devices, scrolling and seeing the news as much as all of the rest of us do.

Tiffany Inglis, Analyst — Other

I think patients are smarter than they've ever been. We have a lot of tools at all of our disposal to learn in a way that we didn't have in the past. But I'll also say, you know, people are disappointed in women's health. and the perpetual poor outcomes. And so patients also are saying, what should I be doing? How should I be thinking about it? And so I think, to Zhenya's point, getting education out there for them to understand that your biggest risk in this pregnancy is actually preterm birth at 1 in 10. And so understanding what that risk is, understanding it early, and you can do something about it, which I think is hugely impactful. And then letting them drive that conversation and at least bring that conversation to their providers. and then also to her point all of these avenues we're working towards they're all have physicians on these as as listeners too and so um like we had a physician this week where our staff went into an office and they're like oh my gosh i saw the podcast i heard about i've been waiting for you guys to come so i mean i do think it's really helpful um physicians are busy people who really want to do right by patients and so but they don't always have time to you know research everything on their own. And that's really why our commercial focus will help them and make sure that it's easy for them to understand how to order the test, when to order the test, and how to get it to their patients.

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

I guess in the last minute here, so you're also expanding into Europe markets and and there are kind of markets there take preterm birth and health outcomes differently and usually better than the U.S. So as you advance towards the CE mark with regulatory submission, what does the anticipated timeline look like in the EU?

Zhenya Lindgardt, CEO

Yeah, no, spot on. We're very excited about engaging, and we've been engaging with regulators across the countries there. We're anticipating the early next year receipt of the CE mark, but the conversations with potential partners, and we are aiming to start commercialization with the partners, are in full swing. We're discussing terms and the portfolio of partners or individual partners that we will bring on board. What we're aiming to do is start that implementation as soon as the CE mark is received, but collaboration plans to be solidified later in the year.

Lauren Timmons, Analyst — Jefferies

That's great. And as we look at your successful transition from clinical stage entity to a commercial organization, what do you view as the single biggest risk or hurdle to achieving widespread adoption, and how are you guys mitigating it?

Zhenya Lindgardt, CEO

I would say awareness because the path to coverage as you see is paved we're seeing the payers resonating with health economic story you see the legislators starting to adopt the test it's how fast we're able to drive broad awareness so that it can get us the pull through of orders on the coattails of that success well thank you guys so much for being here thank you for inviting us Lauren