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SQZ · SERICA ENERGY PLC
2.6580 GBP +0.0220 (+0.83%) At close · Oct 9
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Capital Markets Day · 2026-06-02

SERICA ENERGY PLC (SQZ) June 2026 Capital Markets Day Transcript

Concluded Jun 2, 2026 Audio replay Verified speakers
Jun 2, 2026 2:02:39 43 turns
Period
2026-06-02
Runtime
2:02:39
Sources
2 artifacts

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Verified speakers 2:02:39 Audio
Chris CEO

And welcome to our Capital Markets Day, the first such event we've had since I joined Serica roughly two years ago. It's great to see so many people made it in today, especially on a wet Tuesday with a tube strike. I've spoken to many of you individually, but it's great to have everyone together in one And thank you also to those who have been able to join online. thanks to everyone who's submitted questions ahead of time I hope that you'll find that all of those will be answered during the presentation today there's been a lot of change over the last two years both to the portfolio and to our organization I think we have an exciting vision of the future to share and that is what we intend to do over the next 90 minutes or so This is our usual disclaimer. I'll give you plenty of time to read that. There you go. And this is our agenda for the session today. As you can see, I'm joined by a number of my colleagues, and they'll be doing most of the talking, thankfully. After I've summarized our strategy and track record of delivering that strategy, Carla Riddell, our Chief Technical officer will run through our existing production assets, what I like to think of as the engine room of the business. The production from that engine room is set to generate material free cash flows going forward. Martin Copeland, our CFO, will then discuss what we plan to do with that cash and explain how we allocate capital to create optimal value for shareholders. Balancing our allocation priorities between growth projects and direct shareholder returns. Fran Preston Bell, Public and Government Affairs Lead, will then explain the political environment in which we operate and why in all outcomes we have confidence in delivering value from our growth projects. Finally, Rich Heine, our Head of Subsurface, will go into some detail on what is of greatest importance to an oil and gas company, The Rocks. Rich will share what he and his team have learned about our asset base over the last couple of years and why we are excited about the investment opportunities that lie within them. Finally, we have allowed plenty of time for Q&A once we have finished the presentation. Since I joined Serica, we have been busy on three fronts, adding to the portfolio, high grading the organic growth opportunities within that portfolio and putting in place the right team to deliver those opportunities. But we have a lot more to do. We are entering an exciting new phase for Serica as we look to continue growing the company and delivering value for shareholders. This is us delivering on our strategy unchanged by the current commodity price environment and we are pleased to be able to confirm today that we are currently tendering for a rig that could undertake a multi-well drilling program across our assets beginning in 2027 and running through most of 2028. This program will target material reserves and resources that promise short-cycle rapid development and could add a combined 30,000 barrels a day of incremental production. This would allow us to deliver annual production of over 50,000 barrels a day into the next decade. As you will hear, this is tax-efficient spend that we forecast will be more than covered by free cash flow based on our planning assumptions. This, in turn, allows us to introduce a sustainable distribution policy that cements our existing track record of dividends, but adds the potential for further shareholder returns in line with company performance. But before we get into those important topics, let me provide a quick overview of where Serica is currently positioned. We are a leading UK North Sea company, the sixth largest producer and delivering over 10% of total UK gas production, aiming above all else to do so safely and efficiently and with the lowest possible emissions footprint. Our production is growing. We expect to reach 65,000 barrels a day by the end of the year. And it is also getting increasingly diversified as our acquisitions complete. Production will come from 25 fields by the end of the year. This production generates material free cash flow and we already have a robust and tax efficient balance sheet recently strengthened by the $300 million Nordic bond issuance. We are set to move to the main market in Q3, and when we do, we will qualify for FTSE 250 inclusion later in the year, ready for our next exciting phase. We are well positioned to operate in the UK North Sea with a robust financial position from which to execute our strategy. and this is the strategy that we're executing. It's very simple. It's a two-pronged strategy delivering smart M&A deals and unlocking value from operations and our exceptional subsurface capability. By delivering on this strategy, we believe we can create significant value for shareholders through a compelling mix of growth and returns. And this is what we think we can deliver. Growing and sustaining material cash generative production with the potential for annual production of over 50,000 barrels a day from 2027 into the next decade. And this growth comes from low-risk, short-cycle projects, infill drilling and tiebacks, not large multi-year projects. Of course, this is not the extent of our ambitions. M&A remains a key value driver and we have plenty more to do and this will be delivered by a highly experienced management team. When I joined Serica two years ago, there were certain gaps in the organization that needed to be filled and we have strengthened Serica's organization capability to ensure we have people in place to support the company's next phase of growth while retaining our entrepreneurial culture. We've made a number of targeted senior appointments across a number of areas which has materially improved our decision making, our talent management and our ability to deliver for shareholders. The final piece in that jigsaw is the hiring of Scott McGinnigal as COO bringing a wealth of experience of North Sea operations across major operators. Scott joins us on the 29th of June. I would like to thank Mike Colleen for his tenure as COO over the last two years, and I'm very pleased that he will now be switching to lead our critical West of Shetlands business unit. Stephen Lambert, who many of you will know, has also elected to step back from the front line, although we are very pleased he will still be supporting us in a part-time role at least through the end of the year. Alessandro Agostini will be picking up Stephen's commercial responsibilities on the executive leadership team in addition to his non-operated assets role, and John Stockdale, our general counsel and company secretary, will also be joining the leadership team. The result is a leadership team that is strategically aligned and better equipped to manage the scale and complexity of our enlarged asset base and is ready to deliver more. We also have a first-class board with the right level of experience and expertise to guide and challenge and we are well set for the move to the main market and the FTSE 250 later this year. And as you can see, CEREC has been delivering on our strategy. We have consistently grown our reserves and resources. We are set to have tripled production over the last five years by the end of this year, run in a financially sound way that has delivered material returns to shareholders. In total, over $300 million has been returned to investors since Serica started its dividend policy, and we intend to run the business in such a way that continues to deliver material investor returns as we deliver a mix of M&A and organic growth investment we're aiming to continue this up upward trajectory alongside shareholder returns and we are proud of our track record in M&A with a great team that is able to identify and execute value accretive projects from BKR to Prax and Spirit we do smart deals moving swiftly to capture opportunities typically investing in a way that the sellers are not prepared to. The deals announced last year will have resulted in cash coming into the business on completion and were immediately value accretive as well as adding to our growth options going forward. And although the pace of M&A may be slower this year because of market conditions, We have not changed what we are looking for. Cash flow and credit accretive deals where we can add value through the drill bit and through smart structuring in the North Sea and beyond. And once we acquire an asset, we know how to create further value. And I'd like to take a couple of minutes to share two examples of that. Firstly, our Bruce Keith Rum complex is a great example of how a focused and diligent operator with low overheads can squeeze more out of mature fields. Since taking over operatorship, we have extended the life, the productive life of BKR by 10 years and seen a five-fold increase in combined reserves and resources. This has been achieved through a combination of sensible cost control and a very hands-on approach to managing the well stock. Every single well has had the benefit of at least one work over intervention during Serica's ownership, some of which help to maintain the wells existing production as some of which add new production from different sand intervals. This is a very different approach from the previous operator BP who anticipated decommissioning the fields this year. We now see production lasting at least into the 2030s and that is before we even consider the potential for drilling new wells in these fields and more about that drilling to come later. One area where we have drilled wells in previous years are the fields which tie into the Triton FPSO where our subsurface and drilling teams have achieved spectacular success. Last year saw the completion of a five-well drilling program with outstanding results. Delivered on time and under budget, each well is set to add significant production, with all of them delivering initial production rates of over 5,000 barrels a day. A great achievement. This means we have significant latent production at Triton that is set to mitigate natural decline over the next several years. This is the kind of success I am confident our subsurface team can deliver across the portfolio. But before you hear about that, I will invite Carla to describe that engine room which today generates the cash, which gives us the capability to reinvest. Carla?

Thank you, Chris. And for those of you who don't know me, I'm Carla Riddell, Chief Technical Officer, and I joined Serica in September last year. I'm responsible for the business's technical function, which includes subsurface, developments and engineering departments. And I come from a technical background as well myself as a geoscientist and also in asset management, having worked across the UK continental shelf for operators such as Centrica and Spirit Energy. What I want to talk about are the solid foundations that Serica is built on. It's our assets and the subsurface resources that underpin them. We have a robust reserve base. These images illustrate with reserve life running into the middle of the next decade. The Bruce and Triton hubs remain our key areas, both for reserves and for production. however the acquisitions announced last year have significantly diversified this and bringing in new uk continental shelf assets and basins into our portfolio we've retained our broad balance between oil and gas slightly weighted towards gas and the spirit acquisition which completes later this year brings in more gas too after which gas will constitute 54% of our reserves. This diversity is also in a mix of production and development. As you saw from Chris's slide earlier, we have materially grown our 2C resource base. You may have heard us say in the past, not all 2C resources are equal. I want to really focus on the short cycle rapid return projects that we have in our portfolio. The doability is there. These are low complexity, simple developments with minimal additional infrastructure. These are projects that can efficiently deliver reserves replacement, contingent resources 2C that can be converted into 2P reserves, production and cash flow. We're opportunity rich and the growth and diversity in our asset base is also reflected in the diversity of our resources. You'll hear more about this from Rich later on. Of course it wouldn't be possible to talk with such excitement about the new projects that we're maturing without the confidence in the robust cash flow from our existing base this forms the bedrock of the growth 2025 was a disappointing year for us driven by issues at triton 2026 has been more robust and stepped up in qt this production is a better signifier of what our portfolio is capable of delivering with production rates close to 50 000 barrels of oil a day in this period volumes will increase further as acquisitions complete especially production from the spirit energy portfolio the green slice on this graph after completion we'd expect production to be around 65 000 barrels a day and this isn't a stretched target it's what we would be producing today if all acquisitions were complete We continue to grow our production from that of 2025 simply by the greatest stability and production from our core assets we're seeing today. And this all starts with the Bruce hub, our cornerstone. It's an example of the right asset in the right hands, how it can be optimised to deliver for shareholders and indeed for the UK. It's an asset that potentially would have moved into the decommissioning phase under its previous owners, and it's still delivering material production right now it has additional life extension opportunities above the ground and significant volumes of gas under the ground available for extraction through infill drilling when it comes to base production from existing well stocks there more to give there as well on good days bruce will produce over 20 000 barrels consistently but all too often we see it doesn't get there due to unanticipated operational issues and repairs investment in reducing the maintenance backlog is paying off and we're seeing that greater stability. Renewed focus can deliver incremental improvements and this year we've looked at building on production stability by chasing marginal gains to get closer to the 20,000 barrels a day stability. By focusing on production optimisation across the organisation we've launched a programme called meet it beat it an initiative where as well as our technical teams evaluating we've looked to those who know our assets best our people for ideas for optimization which is now paying off and on Bruce already we have a number of wells back online just by thinking differently to solve our challenges production stability has also been taken through to the operational regime optimizing the process of bullheading this is where we use high pressures to push back the liquids that fill up the well bore into the reservoir it gives a period of efficient dry production and enhanced rates and what was originally a test is now part of a cyclical process in how we operate our wells we've also recently commissioned a new flare gas recovery system taking gas that would have previously been burned as flare back into the production system reducing emissions also providing additional production this project is cash generative and benefits from the highly attractive decarbonisation tax allowance there's meant plenty more to come from Bruce and we are committed to delivering it extending production potential well into the next decade is also the focus on Triton here the recent drilling campaign has completed with production from those wells to follow the extensive maintenance program in 2025 address problematic pipelines, a host of critical remedial work totaling 14,000 hours. Valves replaced, joints replaced. There's still more to do. The operator, Dana, has made significant changes to the team as a total revamp in policies and procedures. And the focus has been on doing the basics right is the foundation of achieving stability and operational performance. We are comfortable with our alignment with the operator they're doing the right things and are focused on the same goals as us that is extending asset life stable production from recent wells and providing further potential for tiebacks in the future there's more to be done there's a plan shut down in Q3 as we've already guided and that's set to be over two months there's more investment there instability enhancing activities a walk-to-work vessel is already on station and this takes the number of people on board up by 20% but significantly more people available to be liquidating work scopes both at day and night shifts things are looking a lot better for Triton production is currently stable as you can see from the production chart on the slide this is averaged around 20,000 a day in Q2 to date with an impressive 95% uptime as a result of operational stability. This stability is coming from a more disciplined approach to fault finding and predictability allowing early interventions. Operations on Triton are currently being run on one compressor where the focus has been around maintaining stability. The second other compressor is functional, serving as a backup to support and step in. While two compressor operations would accelerate production potential, we're learning a lot about the optimum production regime right now and what's still to come from the wells drilled over the past couple of years. The focus rightly remains first and foremost on securing stability. On Triton we have substantial tax losses to offset, making this source of production especially valuable to the Serica bottom line. On to our next hub, a step into a new basin for Serica that's the most prospective in the whole of the UKCS, the west of Shetland. By bringing the Shetland gas plant and the greater Lagan area into our portfolio, we've added additional production from GLA averaging around 4.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day. We look forward to taking analysts and investors there in due course. I can confirm that Shetland gas plant is as shiny and new close-up as it appears on these photos and videos. You can see that in the excellent operating efficiency and uptime of over 90%. After completion of the GLA acquisition on the 26th of March and while the Lancaster field was producing, our production from the west of Shetland was at rates of over 10,000 barrels equivalent a day. Lancaster ceased production as planned on the 3rd of May with production over 66% above forecast and the last oil lifting attracting a premium to Brent and $56 million. Although the field has now moved into the decommissioning phase, there's minimal infrastructure for removal and the opportunity to execute this in a cost-effective manner as part of the drilling programme for which we are currently procuring a rig. The current West of Shetland production is what we hope to be just the beginning for our interests in the basin. Our positioning with SGP provides an enabler as critical infrastructure for the UK gas strategy in the basin. In our portfolio the Glendronach development and a fourth well on Tormor both offer exciting potential opportunities to grow equity production. Simple and rapid ways to access known volumes. Further classic examples of the right assets in the right hands as these already assessed upside potentials with low subsurface risk simply did not screen for capital allocation from the previous owner Total Energies. The west of Shetland is the most prospective basin in the UKCS. There's an estimated 5 TCF of discovered and prospective gas resources. Much of this is in the catchment area of SGP and some of it sits within Serica operated acreage, the blue on the map. And third party throughput is already benefiting Serica and our partners in GLA by sharing operating costs at SGP, which are largely fixed and sharing them across the volumes going through it. It's not a theoretical concept. The Adora-owned Victory gas field started producing via the Shetland gas plant in September last year, significantly reducing GLA partners' share of the plant's operating costs and extending the economic field life of the fields. negotiations for processing of another third party new field tornado are advanced with potential startup by 2029 we look forward to being open for business for further potential beyond tornado in the coming years it's this potential that we saw when we made the acquisition last year we're working to diligently mature opportunities and turn that potential into reality and value for Serica, indeed to materially contribute to the UK's energy security. Look to another new basin for Serica, the Southern North Sea. We look forward to adding 15% stake in Cygnus Field, a strategic asset with future potential and one of the UK's largest producing gas fields. Cygnus has a high uptime, low operating costs and low carbon intensity. Importantly, there's an active drilling campaign ongoing and we expect a further two infill wells in the next year. We will also stretch outside the UK and into the Dutch sector with the Greater Markham area, an asset which exports into the Netherlands. We're in the process of working through the necessary regulatory approvals in the UK and the Netherlands. And the transaction is on track to complete by the end of the third quarter of this year. This will add material production and the addition of around 13,000 barrels a day from the Southern North Sea. The transaction terms themselves include Spirit Energy, the seller, retaining liability for the costs of decommissioning of the operated portion of these assets. Serica will gain the experience of efficient decommissioning by managing the execution, something which can be deployed as and when needed in the future. and finally then on to our other producing assets it provides us with diversification and cash flows away from our main hubs and this includes Erskine, Columbus and Orlando the latter is set for cessation of production in the first half of next year we're delighted to be adding to this part of the portfolio with the imminent completion of our latest deal which will conclude in the middle of this month. 10% interest in the catcher area and 5.21 in Golden Eagle GAD development. Currently together these are producing 2.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day. Another great addition to the portfolio and delivered by a busy M&A team. In summary then, our producing assets deliver robust cash generative production and there's plenty more to come over to Martin to discuss our philosophy of how we allocate this capital okay well thanks Carla and good to see everybody here before I walk

through our capital allocation framework in detail I wanted to give a brief update on our balance sheet and the actions we've taken and are continuing to take this year all of which have been very much in support of the delivery of medium-term plan we're laying out today. Following the very successful completion of our inaugural Nordic bond which priced at a highly competitive seven and seven-eighths, we have 300 million dollars of total debt all through our bond having now repaid drawings under our RBL. With a cash position of 228 million as of the 31st of May that gives us net debt of just 72 million dollars, a net debt to EV ratio of approximately 5%. That is conservative in any by any measure. It has also come down materially from the 200 million dollar net debt position we carried at the end of 2025 and with what we know will be a strong cash generation month in June, including the completion of our 1DS transactions in mid-month, we remain very much on track to be net cash when we report the half-year in early August. Once we conclude our RBL refinancing in early Q3, we will also have no scheduled amortisation until 2029 and the bulk of our debt in fact not due until the bond maturity in 2031. However, the more important development underpinning our next phase of growth is the very material liquidity we enjoy today. Combining our cash balance with the $456 million of undrawn but committed capacity under our existing RBL gives us 684 million dollars of total group liquidity today. We manage the business on the basis of a minimum liquidity floor of 200 million dollars, sized to be roughly half our annual operating cost base. The material headroom above that level that we have today is deliberate. It supports our confidence to embark on the next organic capex phase whilst also remaining opportunistic in M&A and ensures our ability to sustain this investment together with the base dividend through commodity price volatility. Aside from the bond we have two ongoing corporate finance work streams which we expect to conclude in the coming weeks. We are very advanced in refinancing our RBL and I'm pleased to say that we have seen strong appetite from our existing bank group, quite a few of them are in the room today and a number of our new banks to support the refinancing we're aiming for a 500 million dollar facility essentially the same as today but we'll also expect to add a 250 million dollar lc tranche affording us better flexibility in posting dsa security for our enlarged portfolio as is typical we also expect to have an accordion feature of up to the full 750 million facility size facilitating further M&A led growth over the coming years. We are also progressing well on the necessary steps for our move to the main market which we target completing in Q3. Turning now to the structural frame around our approach to capital allocation. This slide portrays the philosophy that underpins how we prioritise the different calls on our capital and in particular how we intend to balance investment with shareholder returns. three overarching principles guide our approach the first is of course the essence of what we're about as a company creating shareholder value but always without sacrificing balance sheet strength we are acutely aware of the dangers of a stretched balance sheet given the volatility of commodity prices and the range of other risks we face in terms of tax regulatory operational subsurface and costs we recognize that although debt should form part of an efficient balance sheet retaining low leverage and ample liquidity are what allow us to create shareholder value without hindering our strategic flexibility through an overstretched balance sheet. Recognising the importance of this, we are today setting out more detail of the financial guardrails we impose on ourselves. These have been designed specific to the current UK tax regime and include a through-cycle leverage limit of net debt to EBITDAX of less than 1.25 times and the $200 million liquidity level I just referenced. We also see prudent hedging, which we believe our RBL mandated levels represents, as important to protect the base. Even if, at times like we've seen recently, it can be frustrating to forego a degree of upside. The second overarching principle is that we believe the investment case for an E&P company like Serica should of course be to deliver growth but to do so while also offering shareholders a reasonable ordinary dividend which we see as demonstrative of financial discipline. Managing the business to deliver a stable ordinary dividend is consistent with allocating capital with a long-term mindset and keeping shareholders front of mind in every choice we make. Accordingly today we are introducing for the first time a distribution policy comprising a base level within the context of a payout ratio frame the details of which I will return to shortly. The third principle is that we continue to want to grow the company not simply to offset natural decline. The reason for wanting increased scale is not size for its own sake but because greater scale translates into a higher quality of earnings and more reliable cash flow generation which in turn translates into a low cost of capital and hence we hope a better valuation. We're not setting an explicit production target but what we can say is that we're aiming over time to reach a double B type credit rating which requires both greater scale and commitment to the kind of disciplined financial metrics we're introducing today. M&A, prudent organic investment and a move to the FTSE 250 are all of a piece with this direction for the company. Consistent with these three principles, creating shareholder value, delivering a stable dividend and growing the company, the capital allocation pyramid sets out our order of priorities for the allocation of our post-tax cash flow from operations. The foundational, non-negotiable call on capital is the spend required to maintain our licence to operate. Maintaining safe and reliable operations, investing to ensure the continued resilience of base production levels from our key hubs and the investments in regulatory compliance measures such as our emissions reduction action plans that bring our assets into line with the OGA plan. This spend is targeted at and sized to support our objective of extending the life of the key hubs at least until the mid 2030s above that comes what we think of as protecting the base this is about ensuring that we maintain a conservative balance sheet but importantly also protecting the base dividend level from that solid core the next priority is growth both organic capex and M&A this sits squarely with our principle of growing the company. I'll give more colour on how we triage opportunities in a couple of slides. After these priorities have been met, consistent with our shareholder distribution policy, we retain optionality for further distributions. Our policy provides for up to 30% of post-tax CFFO to be paid out in the form of further dividends or buybacks above the base dividend. But as the pyramid makes clear only after the strategic priorities have been met. So the message of our capital allocation philosophy I hope is simple. Licence to operate and balance sheet strength first, a stable ordinary dividend second, investment to sustain and grow long-term value third, surplus capital return to shareholders where it's responsible to do so. We believe this framework should appeal to all investors. For equity investors it provides visibility, discipline and meaningful participation in upside. For credit investors it shows that distributions are governed by clear financial guardrails and that resilience is prioritized over short-term payout maximization. Striking that balance is central to how we intend to create durable shareholder value over the long term. Having set out our overall philosophy this slide unpacks what protecting the base means in practice. It comes down to three things maintaining a robust capital structure, ensuring we always have ample liquidity and implementing a disciplined hedging programme. Guardrails which taken together protect both our operations and the base dividend. We follow three principles in our hedging programme. First, downside protection. We hedge specifically to protect our cost base including the payment of the base dividend across the cycle. Second, disciplined implementation. We layer the programme over time consistent with our RBL requirements. These vary with levels of drawing under the RBL, with our current level of hedging reflecting the pre-bond levels of RBL drawings. Third, we favour costless structures very largely in the form of collars in preference to options that require premium payments so we're not paying away cash flow for the protection. The charts show the level of our current hedge book including showing the bank price decks as protecting floor prices above bank price decks boosts our borrowing base and hence our liquidity and this effect is more acute in gas than in oil where the delta between bank price decks and market is especially wide as we indicated at the time of our results we remain roughly 60 hedged in 2026 and 50 in 2027 we've also included our normal updated hedge tables in the appendix of the materials this slide describes how we evaluate growth opportunities against a single consistent investment framework. The process we follow is largely in line with industry norms, but we aim to undertake a holistic assessment on a risk-adjusted returns basis for both organic investments and M&A opportunities. We do not have a single threshold measure, but rather we look across the full set of considerations and strategic objectives, and importantly we do so on a basis which is tailored to the specifics of the UKCS operating and tax environment. The framework itself has three lenses. The first lens is assess the evaluation of the project or M&A opportunity economics. Here we look at the full range of standard financial and industrial yardsticks. We look at all of them not selectively because every metric tells you something different about the shape of the returns. As we indicated in our R&S this morning we're confident that the program we are planning can deliver IRRs in excess of 40% and rapid payback based on our planning assumptions. The second lens is frame, how the investment fits into the portfolio and our strategic objectives. This lens covers fit with the prevailing macro and regulatory environment, how it works with our existing portfolio as well as the potential for synergies and the opportunities that may be unlocked. The Bruce Wells we are planning illustrate this through the impact they have on the hub economics and asset life extension, but also in their ability to unlock a further phase of drilling in the north of the field. The third lens is risk, the assessment of all risks inherent in determining a risk-adjusted view of value. We look across HSE, subsurface, project execution risk, operational including JV dynamics, infrastructure risk and especially importantly today we consider regulatory and of course fiscal risk. You will hear more from Rich shortly on the opportunities being matured for possible sanction later this year and against which this framework is being applied as we finalize the 2027 to 2029 drilling program. Our M&A track record is one of Serica's key strengths as Chris highlighted earlier. We are proud of our execution in this area, not least in the deals we announced in the back half of last year and are completing this year. Deals that have transformed the scale and diversification of our business, bolstered our pool of strategic tax losses and will end up with us not paying out any consideration on their completion. We are equally proud of our reputation with sellers as a straightforward, consistent and reliable counterparty. You can therefore expect us to continue to be active in M&A as the main route to meeting our growth objectives. It is of course always hard to say too much about M&A objectives for obvious confidentiality reasons but we did want to give some point as to the kinds of situations we're looking for. Above all, we're seeking opportunities that fit with our strategy, allowing us to create and capture value transactionally or from synergies of the deal itself, but which also bring with them further potential to unlock or create added value through the combination of subsurface and commercial skills. Although we're not wedded to this, we prefer operated high working interest positions as they afford us greater strategic flexibility to unlock such value at pace. As you've heard from Carla, we see our position in the GLA, including the interest in the Shetland gas plant, as just the kind of situation where we can deploy this strategy in practice. While it remains a work in progress today, we are actively trying to unlock an opportunity for material value creation for Serica, resulting from the change of ownership and operatorship of the GLA assets from Total energies to Serica. This comes from precisely the combination of impacts we like to see in a midlife asset like GLA and the SGP. The opportunity to move forward with infills and tiebacks that did not make the cut on a global basis for total energies. The opportunity supported by our O&M partner PX to realise efficiencies and cost savings in plant operations combined with the opportunity for what we hope will be a mutually beneficial partnership with Adura and Ithaca on tornado and the subsequent fields in the west of Shetland gas corridor. We look forward to updating the market on each of these steps in due course as they crystallize. We apply the same assess frame risk framework I described on the previous slide to M&A opportunities. We seek a risk adjusted return above our cost of capital from completion and the risk dimension includes deal structure such as the decom retention we have in the spirit deal or the very low to zero completion payments resulting from historic effective dates seen in all our 2025 deals, but it equally applies to the pre-planning and structured implementation of integration activities which we've been rolling out sequentially as we complete on the various deals during this year. In terms of the type of deals we expect to see, we think 2026 will be quieter on M&A and especially on cash deals as high and volatile prices combined with the wide discrepancy between forward curves and fundamental commodity price expectations created by the Iran war will tend to make buyer and seller alignment very challenging. We do see the possibility for more relative value deals, including possibly share-for-share deals, that allow us to advance our strategic objectives, and for the right deals, we would be willing to use a combination of our shares and cash as acquisition consideration, but also where we are confident, based on our diligence investment case and synergies, that we can show NAV and cash flow per share accretion. In terms of geographical focus, we've consistently communicated that we would like a presence in another region. Our rationale for this is largely one of continuing on our pathway of diversification and higher quality of earnings through also diversifying away from UK basin maturity, political and fiscal risk. although by its nature we believe it's important to remain somewhat flexible and opportunistic to be successful in an M&A strategy we do want to hunt in places where conditions are ripe to continue our approach of unlocking value from mid to late life assets ideally acquired from majors one such region that we think may fit this playbook is southeast asia we are already pre-qualified by petronas in malaysia for instance and our team has been spending time building our network in the region and screening opportunities we believe that we've demonstrated the capability discipline and deal structuring judgment to be an active and value creating acquirer we expect to continue in that vein as a key enabler of our growth ambition however we will be patient when we believe the price is not right but also decisive when the opportunity is right turning now to rewarding the shareholders in common with a number of our peers we are today announcing for the first time for Serica a shareholder distributions policy that we believe positions the business well for the future. The policy from FY26 is expressed as a payout ratio of post-tax CFFO but importantly we expect that in most circumstances it should deliver no reduction in our payouts and indeed afford the potential for higher distributions over time. As the chart on the left shows since we began paying dividends in respect of FY2019 2019, we have paid an average of 25% of our post-tax CFFO in dividends, and hence the 15 to 30% range we are introducing today sits comfortably in line with past practice. Our intent, as illustrated by the right-hand side of the slide, is to maintain a base level of dividend that is sustainable through the cycle, while retaining the option to give shareholders meaningful participation in increased distributions in periods of higher prices and elevated cash flow. Although the cash flow numbers shown on the right hand side of the slide are illustrative, at the midpoint of our 2026 guidance put out this morning of 470 to 520 million dollars post-tax CFFO, a 16p dividend would correspond to around 17%. We intend to maintain the base dividend level unchanged at 16p per share. However in years of stronger cash generation, we would aim to supplement that base dividend with a mix of additional dividends and possibly buybacks, potentially up to the maximum 30% payout range. We've set the range with reference to post-tax CFFO because we see that as the point in the cash flow statement of which capital allocation decisions are made and prioritised under the philosophy I outlined earlier. We believe that the 15 to 30% range allows us to balance the calls on that capital between organic investment in the portfolio, servicing our debt and giving a fair reward to our shareholders. We do not want to be too prescriptive on where we will land within the range in a given year as it will depend on a number of factors decided at the time of declaring the final dividend including where we are in the wider capital allocation context. When growth capex or potentially in future deleveraging is the priority we would expect to be at the lower end. When those calls on capital are less pressing, shareholders can expect us to be looking to be at the higher end. In all cases our intent is to maintain the base dividend and to supplement it with additional supplementary dividends or buybacks rather than to flex the base itself. This final capital allocation slide brings the framework to life by showing the relative scale of how we expect post-tax CFFO to be deployed over the 2027 to 2029 three-year plan period. It is illustrative rather than prescriptive as the actual mix will move with prices and with the evolving opportunity set but we hope it gives a clear picture of the shape we currently expect. Starting from the left post-tax CFFO is 100% of the funnel based on current market consensus commodity prices which are set out in the appendix of the materials and our current hedge book. It is of course worth noting that there is a bit of a feedback loop between the amount of post-tax CFFO and the CapEx choices we make as capital allowances created by our CapEx serve to reduce tax spend and hence boost post-tax CFFO. From this total we first meet certain fixed obligations such as interest and any abandonment expenditure spend as well as some residual contractual M&A consideration payments we have. We then see the largest spend being on capex but split between resilience and growth spend. The resilience or maintenance capex combined with some of our operating costs is effectively our license to operate and sustain our hubs into the middle of next decade. We are then projecting a little under half allocated to growth capex based on what we see as the most likely configuration of first phase projects from those that rich will run through shortly. That leaves healthy free cash flow before distributions from which we pay base dividends and under this scenario have spare cash which could be distributed or retained depending on broader circumstances. Under these planning assumptions we are able to fund the programme of investments and base dividends from internally generated cash flow. We will of course also retain the ample liquidity buffer that I outlined earlier and hence we confident that we have a good strategic flexibility to capitalize on M&A opportunities and to deal with commodity price variability and other eventualities. So over the 27 to 29 plan period our intent is clear. Deliver production at levels in excess of the 2026 annual average level, generate free cash flow in every year at the plan price deck, pay an annual base dividend of 16p per share, retain the ability to pay additional distributions and preserve meaningful optionality for M&A opportunities consistent with our strategy. Before I close out my section and hand over to Fran I want to spend a moment on detailing the key features of Serica's tax position which remains an important part of our investment case. Serica more than doubled its tax loss position during 2025 primarily through our Prax upstream acquisition but also generated more as a result of the Triton issues during the year. We had RFCT and SCT losses of roughly $2 billion each as well as roughly 500 million of EPL losses all as of the 31st of December 25. We've included on this chart our normal approach of showing the aggregate value of these tax attributes amounting to just over $1 billion on a notional basis. However this value assumes we'd use the losses all in one year which of course we cannot. Our loss balances are reasonably evenly spread across the subsidiaries holding our Triton assets as well as the entities into which we've acquired our GLA interests, the CATCHER and GIADS stakes and where we will acquire the SNS assets from Spirit Energy. But importantly we do not have any losses in Serica Energy UK which is the entity which holds our Bruce, Keith and Rum interests. Well that means we expect our 2026 activity there will be taxed at the full 78% rate it also means that if we proceed with the planned Bruce in Philwell's that capex spend is highly tax-efficient being relieved at up to 84.25% across our planned investment program which spans subsidiaries with varying tax positions we estimate that under our planning assumptions roughly 65% of the pre-tax capex spend will be sheltered by the application of first year allowances. Although this is always a tough one to pin down, we can say that on our planning commodity price assumptions we see the bulk of our tax losses capacity for our Triton assets continuing to provide meaningful shelter for the remainder of the decade. While our planned investment programme at Bruce is the most efficient offset to tax payments from those assets and we still retain ample loss balances which should enable us to remain competitive in possible UK M&A deals in the coming years. And with that I will hand you over to Fran who is the expert in Westminsterology to cover what we're expecting in terms of government policy developments including of course the new OGPM tax.

Fran Preston Bell Analyst — Public and Government Affairs Lead

Thanks Martin and good morning everyone I'm Fran I'm the Public Affairs and Government Affairs lead at SERICA and I joined last September after working for the Trade Association on fiscal policy. UK politics continues to make front-page news, in fact I think it probably always will make front-page news from rumoured leadership challenges to inflection points on policy and both in our sector and actually across the economy. It's hard to believe that we aren't even two years into Starmer's premiership yet and we're less than 500 days since President Trump's inauguration although I think that may be today and so happy 500 days. Navigating and positioning Serica well in this environment is important and it's something that we continue to be really focused on to deliver shareholder value. Many of you will have followed the tax changes the sector has faced over recent years. Since the energy profit levy was first introduced it's been tweaked several times by the former government and then this leadership. Thankfully though after lengthy debate and consultation spanning two governments in November last year the Treasury announced they would be introducing the oil and gas price mechanism or the OGPM. They committed to introducing that by 2030 or earlier if the thresholds were triggered. Now this is a novel tax for the UKCS and this government intends to imply this indefinitely. However the OGPM whilst described as a windfall tax is actually very different to how the energy profit levy works. OGPM is only taxing the revenue generated above 90 dollars and 90 pence a therm for gas and it's charged at three percent lower than the current energy profit levy rate. The difference in tax base is therefore significant. Under OGPM it is only that delta between prices realised and the 90 dollars or 90 pence whereas of course EPL taxes all allowable profits. The other important distinction is that OGPM will only apply in specific price scenarios because of that 90-90, whereas EPL is always applied. This means, as Martin showed, we don't bake OGPM payments into the long-term planning the same way as EPL. We continue to push this government that OGPM should be introduced as soon as possible. The comments that the Chancellor made in March that some of you might have seen followed engagement with Chris and other senior leaders in this sector and it's one that we will be holding them to. because we all know that the introduction of the OGPM would be a helpful confidence boost to the UKCS, the supply chain, but also a net positive for the UK exchequer. It's fair to say that the sector is changing. The international names we used to associate with the North Sea have left or decreased their presence, paving the way for more agile and UK-centric operators like Serica. That change in ownership and consolidation means the top players are now only focused on the UKCS. This creates significant opportunity for pace around decisions and greater alignment that will be beneficial for Serica but also the UK. We know that the UK needs oil and gas and will do for decades to come. The Prime Minister has said it, the Chancellor has said it, even the Secretary of State for Energy Ed Miliband has said it. We also know that the remaining opportunity in the UKCS is well within the Committee on Climate Change's Net Zero Aligned Demand Profile. Plus, a RISAD report published recently even highlighted that the majority of that potential is currently sitting licensed and in the hands of operators. In this environment and with the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical pressure the case for domestic and secure energy production is significant. Serica and others will continue to be an important energy partner for the UK with our current portfolio responsible for production facilities that support over 10% of UK gas production. We are a leading producer we can continue to provide significant value to the UK through both production, jobs and economic contributions. As Martin highlighted, and we all know, the tax story is only one part of the policy architecture that we face in the UK. In addition to fiscal policy, the regulatory environment is also an important consideration when looking at projects and how they might progress through those frameworks. by its nature the UKCS is a highly regulated environment given its maturity its environmental considerations its health and safety requirements but it's an environment that Serica is well placed to operate in and our track record shows that earlier this year following the publication of the North Sea future plan in November last year the King's speech announced the intention to bring forwards an energy independence bill. This bill will legislate a number of changes which will be important to the UKCS regulatory environment but it's important to note that this bill has been trailed since the campaign in 2024. This is not a bill being brought forward in response to Iran, however it's an important milestone for the UK and the energy policy as a whole. That North Sea future plan covered a range of energy measures including in relation to the workforce and the broader energy landscape and demand side policy but specifically on oil and gas it introduced a specific measure called a transitional energy certificate or the catchy name TEX. TEX are the proposed measure to deliver this dual manifesto commitment of one not granting licenses to explore new fields and two supporting the management of existing fields because as I mentioned there is a recognition that oil and gas will be with us for decades to come. TEX as currently drafted will allow companies to develop new unlicensed oil and gas projects to support the management of existing fields. They'll allow access to acreage either adjacent or in close proximity to an existing field with that accumulation being unlocked via tie-back. It's important to note that our current activity programme does not require any text to progress. However, they may be an important part of the UKCS regulatory architecture in the future and so we remain active in advocating for a credible delivery. The conditions around the measures proposed are important, particularly when you recognise that the UKCS is a well developed with significant infrastructure basin. Many of the new developments today and indeed the opportunities that Rich will outline shortly will tie back to existing hosts even in the immature basins like the west of Shetland. Several reports from industry commentators like Reistad and Woodmac have highlighted that the majority of those unlicensed opportunities are all well within the tieback distance that we're used to on the North Sea. The bill is also intended though to introduce changes to the NSTA objectives plus various other measures as I mentioned in the energy system. What's important to remember here though is the bill has to become an act before any of those measures can be put in place. Historically big energy bills like this one takes time to move through the legislative process in Parliament. It'll start in the Commons, it'll move to the Lords and it'll move through various different processes and given the depth and breadth of this bill I would expect this to be the same. The other side that we have to look at when considering projects is the consenting and approval processes and it's essential to consider what type of project we have and what are the approvals that it will need to move forwards. In fact a number of the opportunities that Rich will discuss further requires a range of consents and approvals depending on the nature of the specific project. The required information for project approvals has evolved in recent years. Following the Finch ruling there was a need for operators to make additional assessments around scope 3 emissions. However not all projects are the same. As I said there's a range in regulatory requirements and processes. For example our own Belinda project was granted the necessary approvals in four months back in 2024 for when it was first submitted which is a contrast to what you often hear about UKCS projects and there are a number of other examples that sit with operators who've went through similar periods of time. This is because of the type of project they are, they're different to the flagship projects that you might have heard of but very much still looked at and considered and applied for in the right regulatory environment. The projects in our programme that Rich will talk through are very well suited to the narrative and the direction of travel from government and the policy changes that they are making. Serica is well placed alongside the others to continue to support UK demand and we're very excited about the projects that we have to come. With that I'll pass to Rich.

Rich Heine Other

Thank you Fran. Good morning everyone. My name is Rich Heine. I have the privilege of heading up Serica's subsurface team. It's a pleasure to be able to share some of our exciting organic growth projects with you today. I'm a geoscientist by background and I joined Serica as part of the Tailwind Transaction in 2023. My colleagues have already touched on some of the projects across our expanded portfolio, so now I'd like to look at these in a bit more detail. In this section I'll cover infill and redevelopment projects in Bruce, the greater Triton area, the greater Lagan area and some of our newly acquired southern North Sea assets. These are what we describe as short cycle opportunities with a relatively condensed time frame from drilling to first production. Collectively, they have the potential to unlock 34 million barrels of oil equivalent reserves and contingent resources and add around 30,000 barrels a day of incremental production. Final investment decisions for the first phase of this activity are expected in 2026 and it should also be noted that beyond this initial phase there could be significant follow-on activity with the potential for adding a further 40 million barrels of oil equivalent. So we've shown this map before but it's worth emphasising that these opportunities are spread across four of the main UKCS basins from the west of Shetland, the Northern North Sea, Central North Sea and the Southern North Sea which underlines the breadth and the diversity of Serica's growing portfolio. So Chris has often said that our business is all about the rocks and that is of course true but importantly we need to understand the geology and the subsurface in enough detail to reduce risk and uncertainty and to make the right investment decisions. So when we bring these opportunities forward what does the subsurface workflow actually look like? Well every project is different and each comes with its own challenges but we typically follow a consistent workflow that we know works well. It's the same discipline approach that we've applied to the 5-Well Triton campaign completed in 2025, and it's this approach that we're applying across our portfolio today. All subsurface workflows have to be underpinned with good quality data, be that seismic data, well data, fluid information, pressure information. And when it comes to 3D seismic data, what we typically do across our portfolio is either reprocess existing surveys using state-of-the-art techniques or we license the best available 3D from the open market. We then move into an interpretation phase reworking the area from the bottom up ensuring that we have an updated Serica view rather than an inherited view. Fresh eyes are really important especially in mature field areas and as you'll see later we've certainly looked at Bruce through a new lens in recent years which has led to some of the new targets that I'll be sharing with you today. We then use that interpretation to build 3D static and dynamic models. We run uncertainty workflows to test the full range of possible outcomes. We can then use these models for opportunity identification and filter the best ones to carry forward for detailed design, where we test various development concepts and select the best ones for investment. Finally, when we move into the execution phase, we can typically live stream new data directly into our workstations when drilling, for example, to update our models and optimise the development in real time. Underpinning all of this is a robust technical assurance framework, which we call our opportunity to value process, which keeps everything disciplined and consistent between projects. And finally, sitting behind all that is a much bolstered and highly experienced subservice team which has more than doubled in size in the past 18 months and is ready to support the much expanded portfolio. So, let's get into some of the fields. We'll start with Bruce. Now, the old saying that the best place to find gas is in the middle of a gas field is particularly true at Bruce. It's a highly complex field, but if we can understand that complexity properly then we can unlock meaningful late-life opportunities. Some of you may recall that Apache took a similar approach in the barrel field which sits just the south of Bruce, successfully reversing the decline and extending field life. And that's exactly what we're looking to do at Bruce. Here we've identified three near-term targets with the potential to unlock more than 18 million barrels of oil equivalent 2P reserves and add more than 10,000 barrels a day of incremental production. Now as I go through this section I'll also show where these projects sit within our opportunity to value framework and in the case of the Bruce infill wells we've recently passed through the select gate and we're now defining the project to support execution in 2027. So on this illustration here you can see the Bruce facilities that are sat up there in the northern part of the picture with the existing wells in black going down into the the top of the reservoir at the bottom there, the hotter colours are the shallower parts of the reservoir and the greener, bluer colours are the deeper parts of the reservoir. And what we've highlighted are three new wells in red, which I'll talk to in a minute. These are our planned infill wells that are tying directly into the Western Area Development Manifold, what we call the WOD Manifold. Importantly, that's exploiting existing infrastructure already on the seabed. So following the workflow I outlined earlier, we now have a suite of fully history-matched full-filled models across the field. This is a first for Bruce because building these models and being able to match the historical production is really difficult, but the team have done a great job and the resulting models have identified actually more than 20 infill targets that appear to be unswept by the existing well stock. We've been able to high-grade those opportunities to pick the top ones based on the size of the target, the economics of the project, cycle time to first production and their ability to de-risk or unlock future opportunities. The top targets are what we call South Central East, South Central Western WOD 5, they're marked as 1, 2 and 3 on the map there. These are attractive short cycle projects because they can be drilled close to that existing WOD manifold and tied straight in which keeps the infrastructure requirements relatively simple and minimises the environmental footprint. And beyond that we also see potential in the North East and the North flank of the field as an attractive follow-on phase with larger volume potential, although those would require additional infrastructure on the seabed. So the map that you see on the right there, which is a top-down view of the reservoir, if you're looking from above, really nicely shows the complexity of Bruce, and it's that complexity which sets up some of these opportunities. All of the grey lines that you can see there are actually fault lines in the reservoir, which divide up the field into different segments, and it's those faults which act as baffles and barriers to the gas production from the existing wells leaving stranded hydrocarbons in pockets that we can exploit with late life infill wells. Okay so I've talked about our 3D models and here you can see one version of our Bruce model, our Bruce full field model which I've mentioned. The colours here show pressure distribution across the field and the purples and the darker blues indicating pressures, relatively low pressures so areas that have been depleted by the existing wells whereas the greens and the lighter blues represent less depleted parts of the reservoir. So we're using tools like this to be able to highlight parts of the reservoir that we think are underdeveloped and you can see the south central area in the bottom left corner being one of those areas that we're targeting with the three phase one wells and then you've got the north east and eastern terrace part which is also under we feel is underdeveloped and we will be looking at that for a future development area. So zooming in a little bit on the three wells in the south and the WOD area, you can see WOD 5 on the left, you have got south central west in the middle and south central east on the right. The grey sort of shadow zones there are actually the faults that I mentioned on the previous They are segmenting the field and you can see that actually each one of these is targeting in a different fault block and that means each one of these is actually independent of each other. So detailed planning for the delivery of these three wells is well underway and we've recently completed the survey work on the seabed to assess the shallow hazards and support the location of the rig. And as we move into the drilling phase we're looking to deploy technology that we've used successfully on the five-well Triton campaign in 2025 which helps us to optimize the the wells as we drill them. So that's the image on the lower left there. This is actually what we call ultra deep resistivity technology. So we deploy this on the drilling assembly and it feeds back information, images like that in real time. And the hot colours on there are actually the hydrocarbon bearing bits of the reservoir. So that's what we want to drill through. And the colder colours above and below are actually non-reservoir or water bearing sections. So in real time we can make adjustments to those wells and make sure we drill the sweet spots. It's particularly important for the South Central West and South Central East wells because as they enter the reservoir they're actually going to be levelling out and drilling horizontally for a distance of some few thousand feet actually. So long horizontal wells through the reservoir and we use this technology to optimise those. So it's a really exciting period of the redevelopment of Bruce. These wells will be the first wells drilled on the field since 2012 and we're looking forward to moving those into the execute phase. So turning our attention now to the greater Triton area and the Kyler development. Kyler is actually a redevelopment of the former Kyell field and so we know that the hydrocarbons are there in the subsurface. Production ceased earlier on earlier than planned on the the Kyell field and Serica is now looking to to bring that field back into production as a single well tie back to to Triton via the Bitton infrastructure. This is a development concept which we know works well in the Triton area with clear parallels to both Evelyn and Belinda which we delivered in recent years. Planning is progressing on both the engineering and the regulatory fronts and we've already submitted a field development plan and environmental statement to the regulator. And like Belinda and Evelyn, Kyla is a hundred percent equity field for Serica with the potential to unlock more than 10 million barrels of 2P reserves and add more than 5,000 barrels a day of incremental production. So like the Bruce Wells Kyla is already in the defined phase of the project and we're moving that forward to execute lightly in 2028. The image on the screen here shows the sort of the makeup of the Kyla field. The pink layer at the bottom is a mobile salt layer which pierces up through the shallow geology and sets up the structure of the Kyla field itself. So the actual reservoirs, the younger reservoirs, are lapping up against that salt-piercement structure and you can see that the Kyla development itself is relatively simple. It's a manifold on the seabed. We drill down horizontally through the reservoir and then we tie that back through the Biton infrastructure. That's the new part of the development and then everything else back to Triton already exists. You can see that in a bit more detail on the map on the right hand side here. So it's that new part of the infrastructure from Kyla to Biton is about 12 kilometres. That's a flow line and an umbilical and then the rest of it is already in place. The map on the right hand side is actually a zoom in of the structure, top-down view of the reservoir. You can see that concentric structure that I described and the well is the red line that sits on the southwest flank. Like those two Bruce wells I described, this is actually going to be a horizontal well that's going to skirt around the southwest flank of the field. We believe that's the sweet spot of the reservoir and we're also going to be deploying that same technology I described, the ultra-deep resistivity, so that we can stay as shallow as we as possibly can on the reservoir, but also look to our right and avoid that salt wall which is piercing up to the east of us. Okay, shifting focus now to the west of Shetland and our greater Lagan area. This is a useful image of the area, it's looking northwest, southeast towards the Shetland gas plant, which Serica now owns and operates, and you can see the subsea infrastructure there linking the four existing fields of Tormor, Lagan, Edredore and Glenlivet back to the SGP plant. You can also see the victory field there operated by Adura tying into the GLA infrastructure. That's the one that Carla highlighted earlier. Also highlighted here are the approximate locations of the Glendronach development and the Tormor T4 infill well which I'll touch on there. So Glendronach continues this theme of high value short cycle tiebacks to equity infrastructure. One of the attractive features of Glendronach is that we actually don't need to drill a new well. There's already a well in the ground suspended, so we'll be recompleting that and tying it back to the existing Edrador infrastructure. The development will require both a field development plan and an environmental statement because this is a new field and those submissions are planned to be with a regulator later this year. Only minor modifications are expected to be required at Shetland Gas Plant to accommodate the development, including the addition of a gas mercury removal unit. Glendronach has the potential to unlock five million barrels of oil equivalent of contingent resources and add more than 5,000 barrels a day of incremental production. Like Bruce and Kyla, it has also passed through the select gate and is now moving into the defined phase. On the cartoon cross section you can see here Glendronach sits to the right of the Edredore It's the middle well, the one that's labelled GDO1 that we'll be re-completing, so we'll be exploiting the upper Spinnaker Reservoir and the deeper Royal Sovereign Reservoir which is underdeveloped in this part of the west of Shetlands. Now still in GLA but moving on to the Tormor field and looking at the T4 infill well, this is a less mature opportunity than Glendronach and over the coming months we're looking to progress it from the assess phase into select. Even so it represents a valuable follow-on opportunity within the greater Lagan area and has the advantage of not requiring a field development plan or an environmental statement because it's an infill well in an existing field. Technical work is ongoing, including 3D static and dynamic modelling, which we're moving forward at pace. And what we're also using here to condition those models is 4D seismic data. Now, 4D seismic data is actually multiple 3D volumes, but actually the fourth dimension is time. So what we do is we acquire 3D data prior to production and then we then acquire 3D data different steps through the production life of the field and then we can compare the difference between those those data sets and see where fluids are moving within the reservoir. This technique doesn't work for all fields, but it works very well at Tormor. So the red and the yellow outlines you can see on the map there represents a 4D seismic signal that we've seen from before production started to now. What that's highlighting to us is that the existing well that's labelled T3 there in the southern part of the field is actually draining the reservoir effectively but we're seeing less depletion from the segment in the north. That fault that runs through the middle of the field is baffling flow and it means that we've got an undrained segment in the north that we can target with the T4 well. So there's a bit more work to do at T4 But it's an exciting opportunity using high quality data that sets us up nicely to develop that area in the north of the field. OK, so moving our attention now to a new part of the Serica portfolio, the Southern North Sea and the Cygnus field. So Serica is acquiring a 15% interest in Cygnus through the Spirit Energy acquisition. Cygnus is the largest producing gas field in the UK and has consistently high uptime. So it's an exciting asset to be joining at this stage of its development. There are currently 13 producing wells with additional wells being drilled as part of the ongoing campaign and at present C14 is being drilled and C15 is already sanctioned and the joint venture are expecting to take final investment decision in Q2 this year on two further wells, C16 and C17. So we're very much looking forward to becoming more involved in Cygnus and supporting the next phase of the development of this world class asset. And still in the southern North Sea, a word on Clipper South. So this is another non-operated asset that's being acquired through the Spirit transaction, where Serica will hold a 25% interest in the field on completion. It's currently being drained by four existing producers. Those are the red wells you can see on the reservoir map there in the middle of the field. But we believe there's an area to the northwest that's potentially underdeveloped, and that's a target for a potential infill well, and we're looking forward to understanding that a bit more and working with a joint venture to bring that opportunity forward. So it's another exciting partnership to be part of, and we're looking forward to contributing more to this over the coming months. Okay, so I'm now going to shift the focus into the Outer Moray Firth area of the North Sea. So this sits south of Bruce and north of Triton. So this is the Buchanhorst area and the greater Buchan area. Buchanhorst is a potentially material development in the Outamory Firth, operated by Neonext Plus, and Serica has a 30% equity interest. Buchan is actually a redevelopment of an old field which ceased production back in 2017, and it ceased operations due to the removal of the floating production facilities rather than the reservoir being fully depleted of oil. So we know that the subsurface opportunity exists and SARA could carry more than 20 million barrels or the equivalent 2C contingent resources on the Buck and Horst field. An FTP has already been submitted to the NSTA and value engineering studies are ongoing at the moment to optimise the project. With a successful development at Buck and Horst, there are future tiebacks in the area. notably the J2 and the Verbier which are highlighted in green on the license area there and they're actually on our license as well as discoveries off the license within tieback distance for example Avalon which sits to the south of us there. There's also future exploration prospects on the block which are labelled Verbier Deep and Cortina North East so in the event of a facility being on the location we'll be able to tie those in at a later date. So finishing with expiration I'll provide a quick update on our plans for the Scaravore well in the Central North Sea. So Scaravore has been in the Serica portfolio for some time, but through the Parkmead acquisition in 2025, we assumed operatorship and increased our equity to 70%. The prospect contains two targets, both of which will be evaluated by the exploration well. The primary May target, the upper unit, is targeting gross mid-case prospective resources of around 20 million barrels of oil equivalent and that carries an attractive chance of success of over 40% which is a high chance of success. The secondary deeper reservoir target, the TOR, is a higher risk but also offers a significant upside with mid-case resources of over 115 million barrels of oil equivalent. So you can see in the cross section there of the prospect itself and in subsurface terms, Skerivor looks very much like Kyla, both in terms of structure and reservoir characteristics. Both prospective targets are proven in the area and there are multiple analog fields nearby that produce from these targeted intervals, including the recently developed Talbot field, which is just the northeast of us there. And there are also multiple potential tieback opportunities in the event of a successful discovery at care of or one of those actually being back through Talbot and into the the Judy facilities. So in conclusion I hope that gives you a clear sense of the scale of the opportunities across our expanding portfolio which include in Phil Wells at Cygnus and Bruce, redevelopment of Kyla and short tie backs to the in the greater Lagan area. All of these are underpinned by robust technical work assured through our opportunity to value framework and we're very much looking forward to progressing these into the execute phase. And with that, Chris, I'll hand back to you. Thank you.

Chris CEO

What, no music? I don't get any music. So I think we'll just, I'll just leave you with this slide, which is an overview of the key messages we've been hoping to deliver today. and I'll just end with it with a quick summary in my own words for me I think we've demonstrated that we have a portfolio with great organic growth potential and in fact we will never be able to fund all of the things that we have in our portfolio some of which we haven't even had time to discuss today So we're in that privileged position where we have a lot of great opportunities and we just get to choose the best ones to go after. And that's kind of where we are right now. We are also in the privileged position of having the balance sheet strength that allows us to fund those good opportunities while also continuing shareholder distributions. And I think we've gone some way today to sharing with you why I believe we've got the right team in place to maximize the value from those opportunities. So I'm going to end there. We're almost exactly on the 90 minutes we were aiming for, which shows we're also quite good at planning, I think. And we're going to move into Q&A. So I'm going to ask my colleagues to join me up here on the stage. and I think we'll start with questions in the room here I know that Andrew is monitoring online as well so if there's if we have time we can go to questions online as necessary and the way this is going to work is if there's a really easy question I'm going to take it and and if there's difficult ones I'm going a point at one of these guys thank you very much we'll jump straight in um on triton um would you like to 100 of the asset and and if so how possible or doable is it so that that would be um it's a bit of a double-edged sword um i'd i'd like to have control over triton operations um i think for fairly obvious reasons. I've spent a large part of my two years here apologizing for the performance of Triton. And I don't mind doing that if it's our own operations, and we're accountable for it, and we've screwed up, and I'll hold my hand up and admit to that and tell you what I'm going to do differently tomorrow. And obviously, we can't do that with Triton at the moment, so I'd love to find a way that we could operate that. We have the majority of the production that goes through Triton. I think it's about three-quarters of the production is ours today. And so you can see some logic in that, but we don't have a right to just take the operatorship away from Dana. I think Carla articulated quite well earlier that we're actually quite pleased with what dana is doing at the moment um and and they have spent a lot of the last couple of years trying to put things right they've caught up on quite a lot of the maintenance and and for now it's it's been you know the last couple of months it's been running quite well and and they are doing pretty much all the things that we would do if we were operating it today with the same people. So although I'd like to own it, I can't guarantee you that it would actually improve that much. Would I like to have 100%? A bit more production would be nice. I think the only way that comes about realistically is if we do an M&A deal with Dana and I'll and I'll leave that there.

Speaker 4

Thank you and could you maybe quantify the third party throughput opportunity at the Shetland gas plant in dollar terms you know in monetary terms?

I think it's tricky for us to do that not least because the I mean I think we meant indicated for tornado the discussions are still going on right there's a there's a ongoing you know discussions without with adura and an Ithaca so really I don't think it's appropriate to put a number on it but that I can quantify I can further recalibrate if you like where it comes from the value to us is is clear I think hopefully that the cost base is essentially fixed and so any more throughput comes through everything is going to have a degree of cost share and probably some component of tariff potentially as well so we're not going to be in the business and we don't intend to really be in the business of just becoming a third-party infrastructure owner but it brings it brings good value to our own existing assets if we can lower that cost base it improves the economics overall of GLA which improves the life of the fields and and gives the potential for more stuff to come into the plant so it's all good news if we can you've seen that plant it's virtually brand new i mean by uk standards and it's got loads of knowledge in it so i'm not really going to help you by that because it's not a number but i don't think we can give a number right now i think one of the biggest sources of value in all of that is pushing out the decommissioning costs as well yeah um and and even if you just factored in the time value of money of pushing

Speaker 7

that out by you know who knows 10 15 20 years potentially that's that's quite valuable to us in and of itself i can i just ask a couple of different ones quickly on southeast asia give us a flavor of the fiscal environment which i imagine it's impossible to be any worse in the uk and also but importantly the regulatory environment and how how robust it is there and then secondly just talking about the the sort of um uh the uk cs and you talked about how belinda was in 2024 quick approval etc it looked a bit different to what we're you know the the a lot of the stuff that's being talked about in the, you know, in the press and that government at the moment. Can you just give us a little bit more of a flavour about what looked different about that and what might we see going forward?

Chris CEO

This is going to be a three-part answer. I'll make a quick comment. I'm going to ask Martin to talk about the kind of government takes that they have in Southeast Asia typically, and then maybe over to Fran. But I think one thing we can say about Southeast Asia in general, and of course it's not one country, there's multiple countries that we're looking at. In general, the governments tend to like the oil and gas industry in that part of the world. And in general, the population seem to be quite positive towards our industry as well. So that in and of itself is a good thing. The fiscal regimes tend mainly to be production sharing contracts which is you'd almost be forgiven for thinking the government here was trying to put in place the production sharing contract through the back door but but they won't call it that but production sharing contracts actually protect the producer on the downside but it it caps you on the upside and and that's one of the benefits of them in terms of the the average government take I mean like I think the average takes probably it may some of it may not be that dissimilar to where we are it may be so 60 to 70 percent it's not it's not the same in every single country but the point is you you know like in all these things

what's key and it's I mean you know we did spend time looking at Norway as people will know what's key is that if you know what it is when it you go in and it's and you know that it's consistently going to be that and it's always stayed like that, that's what matters. That's what kills the UK. As long as you know what you're getting when you come in, you buy it on that basis, and therefore that's the economics, then you can live with it. And as Chris said, they're virtually all POCs, which is a good thing, really. It gives you this kind of S-curve exposure to prices. So it has a bit of inbuilt hedging, if you like, embedded within it.

Chris CEO

So, Fred, do you want to kind of contrast what we might expect for something like a Kyla or a Glendronach, paired with, say, a Rosebank or a Jackdaw, what's different about them?

Fran Preston Bell Analyst — Public and Government Affairs Lead

So I think the first thing to say on Belinda, a lot of this comes down to size. So how much volume is sitting within that, what's the opportunity on it? And Belinda is much smaller than something like a Kyla or a Glendronach, and it's significantly smaller than something like a Rosebank or a Jackdaw. That's the first bit. What size is it and how does it go through? That doesn't mean that there isn't a regulatory consenting process. We should be clear on that. As we said earlier, we're really committed to making sure we're producing these at the lowest emissions and that doesn't mean that we're not taking our eye off that. A Rosebank and Jackdaw is a significant flagship project. Lots of volumes, lots of new infrastructure in it. Lots of the things that Rich outlined are tieback opportunities to existing hosts and that's where the difference is. They still have to go through a process, absolutely. But it's a different sort of process and it's a different pace of time. If you look at Jackdaw, it went in in 2021. That's when it started its journey. I listed Belinda as an example. There's plenty of other things like BP's Murloc that's out there, Adjura's Victory. They've all gone through in different levels of times in this process.

Operator

Before we take another question in the room, we'll take one from online. It's a follow up to what Martin was just talking about, actually, which is that given the scale of opportunity in the UK and your excitement about it, Is there a risk that buying assets outside the UK creates a distraction?

Yeah, no, that's a short answer to that. I think we can manage, I mean, hopefully we've demonstrated that we're able to manage the acquisitions we've made in the UK. And when we do that, we're actually getting people that come with it. So we've deepened the bench strength, basically, of the company overall. And if we were to buy something in Southeast Asia, it's exceedingly likely that we buy something that probably comes with a team that has been operating it. If it's buying an asset from a major, for instance, it would almost certainly come with the people that do that. So to us, and actually managing that, I mean, people who know Serica for a long time will know that Serica used to be in Southeast Asia. I'm talking like 20 years ago, really a long time ago. And I'm told that at that time, it was a bit trickier managing a business that far away. But I think nowadays, that's much easier, right, from a commerce perspective.

Chris CEO

I'd just add to it. I mean, Martin's absolutely right. The kind of things that we're considering and that we've evaluated so far would all come with a team on the ground, in-country, that are running assets. you should not expect to see us go and try and pick up an exploration license for example and then build a team in country to go and run that we will look at buying assets that come with with the team the other thing that we've we've been doing over the course of the last year or so as we've been integrating the M&A that we've executed, is we've set up our organization such that adding another country is really straightforward. It's like adding another asset within the UK. Here's the person at the head of that asset team. There's the team underneath them. That person probably reports into me or into the COO, and the organization is set up to support that. So we weren't that way 12 months ago. Now we have an organizational design that allows us to plug in additional assets as we buy them and do it in a seamless way.

Speaker 11

Thanks, guys. Can I start with the development portfolio? Just you gave a 40% IRR number there, which obviously is an average across those projects. Are you able to break that down at all in terms of giving us a bit of a steer on what the range of returns are across the projects. And the second one on the dividend, I appreciate we've got a load of information there. The bit that I'm not fully clear on is M&A and how much you may want to retain for M&A. So is there a rule of thumb as to what kind of cash balance you would like to retain for M&A just to give us a bit of a steer on what the dividend would be.

Chris CEO

Yeah, shall I try the, I don't think we're in a position to share economics of individual projects at the moment. We will do that as we mature those. I mean, Rich was showing as we were going through the presentation there, the stage that we're at in each of those. and some of them, you know, frankly, the economics are fairly early on and it's quite high level and there's a wide range of outcomes. As we get closer to sanctioning individual projects, I think that's the point at which we'll have the confidence to share the data more widely. So apologies, I don't think we'll be sharing individual asset project economics at this point, but it will come. Martin, do you want to...

Yeah, so the M&A one, it's an interesting point, obviously. I mean, as you've seen, we've got, you know, based on that plan and the consensus price decks that we're using, we would have essentially the full liquidity that we've got right now, which is $684 million, and even after we've done our refi, as I think I hopefully indicated it, we don't expect that to change much, right? So that's a lot of liquidity, right? So you might look at it and think, well, what are you going to do with that? I mean, obviously, that does give us, in a way, that part of the reason we want that is because, you know, those who've been following us for a while will know that and it was up on the chart we did last September October we we announced the deal to buy BP's Killane stake in the Killane field which was you know relatively sizable and it was 200 million odd acquisition price now unfortunately it got preempted but so we don't own it but the point I would like to make on that is in order for us to do that we and some of the banks are in the room so thank you to them we had to go to our banks and get a special basically bridge financing to enable us to be able to demonstrate that we could actually complete that financing that deal had it got to completion with the level of liquidity we've now got we have the ability that if that sort of situation were to crop up again we could just do it like that and that is really important in M&A right because you've got to be very clear that the seller knows that you absolutely are deliverable so I think the ability to have committed funding that we can draw down, you know, kind of at a moment's notice is key. The other thing that makes it tricky with M&A is that the kinds of things we're going to buy will themselves bring debt capacity or cash flow as well. So as long as they're credit accretive, i.e. they just basically add to our financing capability and hopefully they'll be equity accretive as well, they shouldn't hinder our ability to continue on the same distributions policy that we've laid out as well.

Speaker 12

But clearly that was a plan based on what we own currently right morning uh thanks guys just um just thinking about the uk i guess historically access to infrastructure has been a problem in terms of some projects moving forward columbus being being one um as operator of the gla now and obviously the gas plant how are you sort of approaching discussions with partners to make sure that that um doesn't happen obviously i guess you're incentivized to push the life out but um you you mentioned that discussions are still ongoing with with tornado and then maybe if there's any sort of context you can put around it maybe not in dollar terms but any sort of the volume metrics or something you can say around that uh longer term third party opportunity and then just

Chris CEO

secondly on the dividend um if consensus price expectations change for example then cffo comes in below where you're currently thinking about it should we think about that 16p as a floor assuming that the other guardrails in terms of leverage and liquidity stay in place on on on the um the infrastructure question it i mean it is a live debate at the moment right specifically around tornado and and i think that's why um uh martin was reluctant to say anything about the scale of what the value that might bring to us, frankly. And so that is ongoing. The conversations had started before we bought those assets. So Total were, as host, were having conversations with them before that. We are in live debate right now, trying to close a deal.

And there's a gap at moment and it's edging closer and i'm i'm pretty sure we'll end up with the deal but i'm not sure we can give no i don't think i mean once we have a deal and they announce that they're sanctioning tornado and it's coming to us i think we can be quite open at that point it's just that it's not appropriate to go into it in more detail i'm afraid not in this in this forum but but i would say generally on that point of infrastructure i mean to us that that you know and not just us to to NSTA you know which is you know you might you might be surprised that there's a huge amount of drive for NSTA to get maximized the amount of resource that comes into that Shetland gas plant I mean they can see like us that it's virtually brand new you know and there's a whole head of gas out there right so you know in the UK funnily enough needs it so you know there's a lot of desire to have that all come together and we're actually working pretty collaboratively with the partnership because then you know they'll become long-term partners of ours in the plant as well. So I think that's all I can say on that. On the dividend, you asked about that. Look, I think the way we've framed it, yes, we want the 16p to be viewed as a flaw, but there are obviously, pure maths says that there is a circumstance because what we won't do is go over the 30% of post-tax CFFO. So you can kind of back solve that if our post-tax CFFO were to go to below 280, I think is the number you know then then we would be breaching the 30 percent right so that's the point of having the the 30 percent as the max if you like but we can flex that percentage to keep with the aim of essentially keeping the 16p as a as a minimum we'll take another quick question online which is once you're in the footsie 250 do you expect a lot of new institutional investors and what impacts do you think that will have on the share price i mean the you know we first of all we we should say that it's not absolutely guaranteed we'll make the FTSE 250 by the way there is actually an index process you have to go through but we're saying it as if it was certain because by our current size we're comfortably at that level so I think it's fairly plausible more than plausible what you will get is trackers so that means that one of the benefits of being in the index is you get a lot of funds passive money that basically tracks the index so that you know we don't have today there aren't there's none of that that's tracking us and aim and so I don't want to sit here and say it's a kind of silver bullet but I think it just gets a lot more focus and attention there are some international funds there are some UK funds who just only invest in main board listed companies so yes I think we'd expect to see wider shareholder

Operator

interest I mean frankly we pleased we get quite a lot of good shareholder interest now as it is but you know the more we get the better I think it's for everyone's interest to do that and that's the main reason we're looking to move up a question on bruce first this is a very large project very large contingent resources well beyond the current 2p reserve so i was wondering whether you could talk you could talk about phase two of those infield wells i think we talk about 17 additional wells so what's the timing what needs to happen does the result of the three wells of phase one impact phase two and maybe related to that and thinking about tax and the new OGM how does the capital allowance works what's your understanding on this OGM because I guess given the cost of those Bruce Wells surely and the timing that must be something that should be quite important for investment decision for those Yeah.

Chris CEO

I'll get Rich to talk about the potential follow-on wells and are they impacted by the first three. And then, Fran, do you want to talk about the capex?

Rich Heine Other

Okay, so you mentioned the 17 follow-on wells. I want to be clear that although there were 20 highlighted opportunities on Bruce, in terms of our contingent resource, the volumes we carry within there, there are five additional wells not not 17 those are on top of the three that we've we've actually got sat within our reserves category so and the the activity that we would need to undertake to bring those forward those those follow-on wells would probably involve some sort of appraisal in the northeast to make sure that we our models are correct you know we modeled these as being undepleted and we think that there's a large volume there as she's around about in terms of contingent resources around about 30 million barrels of oil equivalent of contingent resource in that northeast area but once we've demonstrated that then to actually develop them we'll have to put new seabed infrastructure in place because we can't tie it back through the existing what area like we're doing with these first wells so those first three wells i showed today they're first because we can develop them quickly and they're also high value they are independent of the north. So whatever result we get in these first wells, it doesn't impact what we do in the north.

Chris CEO

I'd say the one area where these wells do impact it is it keeps Bruce going for longer. So the additional volumes from the first three wells mean that we're economic for longer and therefore you've got longer to get those wells drilled and get the reserves from those.

Fran Preston Bell Analyst — Public and Government Affairs Lead

Your OGPM question is a really important one. And actually, if you think about it, the timing of OGPM when that comes in is critical. But actually, the style of OGPM, so it's not on all the time, it's not taking all the profit, it's only applying in certain scenarios on that top slice. So although it doesn't come with capital allowances and investment allowances, it is a very different tax, it's a revenue tax. Your baseline is much lower because you're planning that you're at 40, 46.25 on relief for that whole period of time and only up. I mean, obviously, we're using lower decks than 1990 anyway, so you're not forecasting OGPM into that space. So that's the really important piece of it. The other thing that we should say, though, is whilst projects might look slightly different, the sentiment of a move away from the energy profit levy, which this Treasury has been clear that it's not working, to OGPM would be significant, significant for supply chain and keeping infrastructure in the UK. So it's an important factor to think of.

It is possibly worth saying that the whole genesis of OGPM was because Treasury understood that it wasn't helpful to have a tax that actually disincentivised people to make investments, or at least they felt it was doing that, and people were saying that. Now, we still think we can make money with the regime as it currently is on the things that we've talked through. But that's why they've said that their thinking was setting the 90 and the 90, and it inflates up. So by the time we would get there, it would be higher numbers, was so that it didn't distort investment decisions. And, you know, hopefully we wouldn't be taking decisions if they only worked at 90 and 90, right?

Chris CEO

I do really like the idea, though, of spending our capital under the EPL regime and getting the 84.25 and then getting most of the production under an OGPM regime. That would work out really well.

Mark Wilson Analyst — Jefferies

Okay, thanks. Mark Wilson at Jefferies. um first thing i just think it's nice to see a cmd balance between the clear financial strategy and the assets um your own recent history has shown the uncertainty that assets can have certainly on the facility side so position the financial position you're in and with the deals you've done i think is a credit to you um one thing that's really new in this presentation certainly for me uh fran was this energy forward bill in the uk so i could ask firstly is there a link within that to the fiscal rules such as ogcm is there anything investors should be aware of does it change anything about a timeline of a change of fiscal regime um that's is there any any expectation from yourselves and who's in charge of that change when it comes treasury or energy department let you think about that while i say a second because the second point is on the asset side because this is where history and risk comes into play the size of resource at bruce has just been highlighted and clearly you're going to exploit that we started this presentation as clara said with a still quite new and shiny shetland gas plant the former operator clearly spent a lot building those facilities and your own low level of 2c resource against that shows it doesn't look like something delivered against them it'd be nice to have a history lesson

Fran Preston Bell Analyst — Public and Government Affairs Lead

against maybe what didn't come through in those gla assets okay so that talk about the tax yeah so the energy independence bill is very much a department of energy security led bill the finance bill which is the bill that we expect I'm not going to guess when the budget is but sometime in the autumn there will be another budget the finance bill that will come with that budget is what the oil and gas price mechanism will be legislated in so two separate bills and obviously all bills are related because they have to go around cabinet right around so when a finance bill comes forward still debate it in the room and many people can a defense minister could say something an energy secretary could say something there's lots of different values for that. But that energy independence bill I think is the other really important piece to reflect is it didn't come out of nowhere. They've been thinking about that since 2024. So whilst that's an energy department bill many of the people who were on the campaign in 2024, many of the ministers that are around the table, they all have a recognition for that and it's a big bill. It's got lots of stuff in it. We talk about it as a Christmas tree because it's got so many different parts to it which means by default lots of different people will have an interest in it. So the key date on finance bill is after the autumn where we'll see OGPM legislated.

Chris CEO

So I'm going to answer the easy part of the second question and I'll give the tough part to Carla. So Total were disappointed, right, by what they drilled west of the Shetlands. They spent over a billion pounds, no, billion dollars on the gas plant expecting it to be full. It's never been full. And when they when they drilled a couple of things, they didn't find what they expected. And even Glendronach, most companies, after drilling the Glendronach well, would have tied that in and produce it. And it was almost like they were fed up with the UK in general and wanted to walk away was kind of the impression you get about it. it was it was a bonkers decision after they drilled it but Carla do you have any more information about the things that they drilled and what they expected yeah and I think I think the history lesson here is around understanding subsurface uncertainty and I'm being disappointed if you don't get get what you expect them so for GLA in terms of where we're focusing at the moment we're focusing on what we know is there so the the simple and quick so Glendronach

there's a well in the ground waiting to be completed and and tied in and we're taking a conservative approach to to how much might be there there's a big upside but there's enough to carry that project same with Tormor low subsurface uncertainty and with within within proven proven well control and and a model that works in terms of matching the data. There's also a lot more opportunity west of Shetland. You can see that in terms of the prospectivity of the basin. There's some acreage that we sit on that has opportunities that are really immature at the moment, and we'll need to take some decisions around that as we mature them. But throwing technology, for example, seismic amplitudes work very well west of Shetland, and really trying to use that with the data we have, there's lots of well control. as there are many others in the basin as well and that's where the importance of the strategic infrastructure comes in. If we can have sight of what that looks like for gas in the future it gives us more confidence for some of the longer term pieces as well. I guess in general not just west of Shetland but in everything that we're looking at in the tranches at the moment of our opportunities we're opportunity rich and it means that we can take some decisions and what we're looking at are the areas with the greatest well control where we have the most information and proven accumulations with low subsurface risk. And that's why we can confidently talk about short cycle and quick to develop.

Operator

We've got time for just a couple more questions. I think we'll take a couple more in the room and deal with a couple offline. As we say quite consistently, but if we don't get around to your question, you've asked online, then do please drop the head of IR a line. We'll make sure we do answer all questions that we get in that forum.

Speaker 8

I'll take one very quickly before I pass the microphone over, which is what is the consensus share price target from your analysts i can say that as of now it's three pounds eleven at present and with that i'll hand over to dan yeah thanks very much i just wanted to ask where your thoughts have got to on bucken at the moment um the program that you've laid out is obviously very well thought through it feels like it focuses on sort of doability and your ability to deliver that over the next few years but your financial framework got an awful lot of flexibility and it gives you a lot of options around various different bits and pieces and Buchan does make up quite a bit of your 2C resource as well. So what I was kind of wondering is, what do you need to see in order for Buchan to get kind of promoted up the slide deck, if you see what I mean? What do you need to see? How does that come about?

Chris CEO

So at the moment, the reason it didn't feature earlier in the slide deck is exactly to your point. We're focusing on the things that we have control over, that we're pretty confident we'll get the approvals that we need in a quick time frame we we don't have a partner group that we need to get aligned on some of the stuff that's in that's in the portfolio that we want to do very very quickly and so that a lot of it's just around that doability um i think it's fair to say that the partnership on bucken and and there's a new operator there by the way so neo next plus is now the operator used to be neo then it was neo next and now it's neo next plus since it's got the total business in there and I think it's fair to say that they're taking another look at it they want to form their own view of Bakken before going to sanction a project so it's it's just a little bit behind some of the other things in the portfolio just in terms of its maturity I think that's probably the main reason it didn't feature more strongly.

Operator

I'll pass out for the last question now.

Speaker 9

Thanks very much. Yeah, I mean, frankly, it's remarkable given UK politics that you've managed to reach this position where you're presenting such self-funded organic growth plus sustaining a dividend. So I guess my blunt question would be just how could the politicians spoil this from here?

Chris CEO

Wow. I'll make one comment. Seeing as it's about politics, I might let Fran have a go at this. I've been thinking about this a bit lately. How could they screw it up anymore for us? And it's difficult to see. And look, I maybe would have said that a few years ago, but 78%, I don't see them going any higher than 78%. Is it possible that they just decide to keep that EPL regime forever? I think that's the, you know, possibly. But everybody has been saying, no, it goes away in 2030 at the latest and gets replaced by OGPM, which would be much friendly to us. I think the best thing that protects us is the fact that we do have these short cycle things where we get quick returns and therefore we can, you know, and everything that we've shown you up there is pretty much within our control and we don't need much from the government in order to get the approvals to go ahead. So we're almost immunised against Miliband in that regard. Not completely, but we feel like we're in a fairly strong position to kind of ride the wave regardless of what happens.

Fran Preston Bell Analyst — Public and Government Affairs Lead

Do you want to leave her there?

Chris CEO

She thinks I've said too much already.

Operator

And with that, Chris, have you got any final remarks? And thank you, everyone, for coming.

Chris CEO

No, really, just to thank everybody. it's it's great to see such a good turnout on a day like this with a tube strike and I had my own adventures in getting here this morning so I'm sure others did too and and brilliant questions and apologies to those online but we will be hanging around for coffee afterwards so any other questions from the group that are here we're happy to take them in the lobby afterwards thank you very much

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