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Grupo Aval Acciones Y Valores S.A. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Grupo Aval Acciones Y Valores S.A. (AVAL)

Earnings Call FY2025 Q4 Call date: 2025-12-31 Concluded

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Operator

Welcome to Grupo Aval's Fourth Quarter 2025 Consolidated Results Conference Call. My name is Regina, and I will be your operator for today's call. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A., known as Grupo Aval, issues securities in Colombia and the United States and is required to comply with securities regulations in both countries. Additionally, Grupo Aval is overseen by the Superintendency of Finance as the holding company for the Aval Financial conglomerate. The consolidated financial information in this document is presented according to IFRS as issued by the IASB. Unconsolidated financial details from our subsidiaries and the Colombian banking system follow Colombian IFRS, as reported by the Superintendency of Finance. Calculations of non-IFRS measures such as ROAA and ROAE are explained when necessary in this report. On November 27, 2025, Banco de Bogota's subsidiary, Multi Financial Holding, Inc., entered into a share purchase agreement with BAC International Corporation for the sale of 99.57% of Multi Financial Group, Inc., the parent company of Multibank Inc. For comparison purposes, we have prepared supplemental unaudited pro forma financial information for periods prior to Q4 2025. This reflects the reclassification of MFG's operations as noncurrent assets and liabilities held for sale and discontinued operations. This supplemental information is not meant to indicate the results that would have been achieved had the transaction occurred at the assumed dates nor is it intended to predict our future results. The pro forma financial information is unaudited and may undergo adjustments upon completion of the external audit for the year ended December 31, 2025. This report contains forward-looking statements, which can often be identified by terms like may, will, expects, plans, and similar expressions. Actual results may differ significantly due to changes in economic conditions, interest and currency rates, and other risks outlined in our filings with the Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores and the SEC. Recipients of this document are responsible for evaluating and using the information provided. The matters discussed may change over time, and we explicitly disclaim any obligation to update or correct this information or provide updates for material developments until our next earnings report. Grupo Aval's financial statements, in accordance with Colombian regulations, will be filed with the market and the Superintendency of Finance along with the opinion of an external auditor, and this process is still ongoing at the time of this call. The content and figures in this document provide a summary of discussed subjects rather than a comprehensive description. When applicable, we refer to billions as thousands of millions. I will now turn the call over to Ms. Maria Lorena Gutierrez Botero, Chief Executive Officer. Ms. Maria Lorena Gutierrez Botero, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining Grupo Aval's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. I apologize for my flu, but I'm here to ensure that you can understand me. I'm joined today by Diego Solano, our Chief Financial Officer; Camilo Perez, Chief Economist at Banco de Bogota; and Paula Duran, Corporate Vice President of Sustainability and Strategic Projects. I want to start by highlighting the positive progress of our results in 2025, despite the challenging local and global environment. We achieved COP 1.7 trillion in net income for 2025, which is a 70% increase compared to last year and more than double 2023's figures. This improvement was primarily due to stronger contributions from our banking sector and a record performance from Porvenir. Since our last call, we've made significant strides in our strategic priorities. We completed the merger of our trust company, reached an agreement to acquire Banco Itau's Colombian retail business, agreed to divest MFG, and Corfi successfully executed a transaction that will expand our business in the near term. On January 2, 2026, we completed the merger of our fiduciary businesses from Fiduciaria Bogota, Fiduciaria de Occidente, and Fiduciaria Popular into Aval Fiduciaria. This consolidation enhances our trust services into a single strong entity, improving our value proposition and generating operational efficiencies. We anticipate this will increase our market share in trust fee income and assets under management while enhancing profitability. On December 23, 2025, Banco de Bogota announced the acquisition of Banco Itau’s banking operations in Colombia and Panama, which targets the affluent segment, improves our client service, and strengthens our market position. This acquisition is expected to add approximately 267,000 clients with USD 6.5 trillion in loans and USD 4.1 trillion in deposits and is pending regulatory approval. On November 27, Banco de Bogota announced an agreement to sell MFG, a Panamanian bank, to the Central American Bank. This unit has shown modest results since its acquisition in 2020 and needs to scale to reach desired performance levels. Divesting MFG will allow Banco de Bogota to focus on stronger growth in its core market and reallocate capital towards more strategically aligned businesses. We expect to conclude the sale process in the coming months, subject to regulatory approvals in Panama. This quarter, Multi Financial Group’s balance sheet and P&L have been categorized as discontinued operations. Corfi announced two major acquisitions, one being a 51% stake in Sencia, the concessionaire for the 2029 public-private partnership for the renovation and operation of the Bogota Nemesio Camacho Stadium complex. This includes a USD 2.4 trillion project for a new 50,000-seat stadium, cultural and commercial components, public space development, and mobility solutions. In the energy sector, Promigas signed an agreement to acquire 100% of Zelestra's renewable energy generation platform, supporting its transition into a multi-energy platform with operations in Colombia, Chile, and Peru. This portfolio includes over 19 solar and storage projects with a combined capacity of 1.4 gigawatts and more than 2.1 gigawatts in development, ensuring stable long-term contracted revenues, pending project approvals in Colombia and Peru. Regarding our continued operations this quarter, positive trends solidified. Our risk-adjusted net interest margin on loans stood at 3.34%, the highest in three years, while our cost of risk showed a positive trend. Return on average equity was slightly below our expectations, mainly due to a weaker net interest margin on investments affected by volatile markets and one-time effects from the MFG sale agreement, which Diego will elaborate on. I will now pass it over to Paula to discuss our sustainability achievements for the year. Paula?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Maria Lorena. Good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter, we closed an extraordinary year for sustainability, further consolidating our ESG strategy. One profitability is built by integrating strong financial performance, measurable social impact, and responsible environmental management. Our framework is structured around 3 pillars: Returns with purpose, opportunities for all, and environmental value. Under our first pillar, returns with purpose, we continue to scale sustainable finance. Our sustainable loan portfolio reached COP 44.9 trillion, including COP 36.2 trillion in social lending and COP 8.7 trillion in green lending. Social lending included targeted credit lines for senior citizens, housing, women entrepreneurs, coffee growers, and micro businesses. Green lending supported renewable energy, infrastructure, sustainable mobility, and water management projects, among others. In our investment portfolio, Maria Lorena already mentioned our agreement with Zelestra that reinforces our commitment to clean energy. We also received important external recognitions. In the S&P Corporate Sustainability Assessment, we achieved a historic score of 81 out of 100 and were included in the S&P Sustainability EU. Additionally, Banco de Bogota, Equity Colombia, Banco de Occidente, and Villas were also included in the EU, demonstrating the consistency and consolidation of our sustainability strategy across the group. In the MSCI assessment, we improved our rating to BBB, driven by stronger social impact metrics and enhanced responsible investment practice. On our second pillar, opportunities for all, this pillar focuses on generating inclusive growth and shared value. We calculated the total economic value generated and distributed, which reached COP 41 trillion in 2025. In this value distributed to more than 31,000 suppliers that received COP 11 trillion, our 67,500 employees also earned COP 3.8 trillion. We also paid COP 3.4 trillion in taxes and generated COP 13 trillion in returns for our clients. Additionally, we invested COP 70 billion in voluntary social programs, benefiting more than 2 million people, focusing on community infrastructure, education and research, socioeconomic development, and the promotion of culture, art, and sports. Through Mision La Guajira, the most significant private sector social initiative in Colombia, we fulfilled our commitment, benefiting more than 21,500 people across 80 communities with potable water, electricity, and connectivity. The program also included financial education initiatives and supported over 1,500 value artisans fostering sustainable live schools. We also supported the VAMOS Finances scholarship program exceeding our fundraising goals and reaching COP 1.1 billion, benefiting more than 1,200 students. For our third pillar, environmental balance, we joined the partnership for Carbon Accounting Financials, CAF, committing to measuring the contributions associated with our financial activities. We also launched our nature strategy aligned with the NSE and began a pilot implementation with one of our entities. At the group level, we also achieved tangible efficiency improvements. Energy consumption reduced by 9.6%, renewable energy use increased to 38%, water consumption reduced by 2%, and waste generation decreased by 9%. In summary, we closed 2025 with meaningful progress across all 3 pillars, reinforcing our position as the Aval that drives support and transform the group. We continue to generate opportunities for more sustainable development and create long-term value for our shareholders and all stakeholders. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Paula. Now moving to the macro environment. A lot has happened since our last call that has changed our expectation for 2026. A massive and technical increase in minimum wages has triggered a substantial increase in inflation expectations and has a strong terms from the Central Bank to control inflation expectations. These recent events add to the increase in real interest rate expectations that result from growing concerns on the current administration's fiscal discipline. As a result, since our last call, we have raised 200 basis points our expectation on 2026 inflation and 350 basis points year-end 2026 Central Bank intervention rate, changing the improvement trends we previously anticipated. 2025 was characterized by elevated global uncertainty. The year was marked by abrupt changes in U.S. economic policy, increased trade tensions and greater economic fragmentation. Despite these challenges, global growth proved resilient, reaching an estimated of 3.3%, supported by a second half recovery, higher investment, and accelerated adoption of artificial intelligence technologies. In Colombia, economic activity remained resilient. GDP growth closed at 2.6% for 2025, driven primarily by household consumption and public spending. However, the GDP outlook remains challenging. Investment level stands at historical low levels and the country's fiscal deficit is among the largest globally, despite interest savings achieved through the government's liability management strategy. Household consumptions and government spending alone cannot sustain structural economic growth if investment remains absent and the government continues to crowd out the private sector. Inflation closed the year at 5.1%, remaining above the Central Bank's target range. Furthermore, inflationary pressures derived from the 23.7% increase in the minimum wage led to the beginning of a new restrictive cycle in monetary policy as evidenced by 100 basis points increase in the Central Bank rate in January. Moving on to the exchange rate. The weaker U.S. dollar and the heavy dollar inflows from remittances and the national government liability management strategies led to 14.8% appreciation of the Colombian peso relative to the U.S. dollar. Camilo will now elaborate on our economic outlook. Camilo?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Maria Lorena. Good morning. The Colombian economy grew by 2.6% in 2025, below the consensus estimate and that of technical staff of the Central Bank. The surprise came from investment results with gross fixed capital formation growing only 1.3%. The weak growth in investment was offset by the divestment of machinery and equipment, which registered an annual increase of 9% due to the needs faced by businesses to meet higher domestic demand. Meanwhile, investment in housing, infrastructure, and intellectual property contracted annually. As a result, Colombia ended 2025 with an investment rate of 16.6% of GDP, the lowest level so far this century. Ultimately, high levels of uncertainty, elevated interest rates due to persistent inflation and large fiscal deficits have led the country to face a complex investment landscape with the financial mining and energy construction and communication sectors being the most impacted. Conversely, the economy found supporting household and public sector spending. On the household side, higher income from wages, remittances, government transfers, coffee exports, and tourism led to an acceleration in private consumption growth from 1.6% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025. The growth in goods expenditures surpassed that of services. As a result, sectors such as commerce, lodging, food, transportation, recreation, and services in general continued their upward trend. In manufacturing, while growth was observed in line with the increased household demand for goods, the appreciation of the peso reduced the competitiveness of local production. Meanwhile, amid the suspension of the fiscal rule and the higher budget execution, public spending increased from 0.6% growth in 2024 to 7.1% in 2025, the highest rate since 2021. Also public spending boosted local activity, it was financed with increased debt, leading to a widening of the primary fiscal deficit. Thus the fiscal stimulus appears unsustainable and ultimately display the private sector in an example of carrying out. In the external sector, lower national competitiveness explained by the appreciation of the Colombian peso against the dollar and higher labor hiring costs led to exports moderating the growth rate from 3.2% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025. By 2026, amid more adverse financial conditions, weakening private consumption, a more challenging fiscal situation and high uncertainty surrounding the elections, the Colombian economy is projected to moderate its growth rate to 2.4%. Turning to prices. Inflation ended 2025 at 5.1%, virtually unchanged from 2024. Here, inflation improvements in rents and regulated prices were offset by increased pressure of food, goods, and services different from rents. At this point, higher labor costs resulting from the significant minimum wage increase, the reduction in working hours and the approval of labor reform weighed on inflation on goods and services. Meanwhile, high household and government spending limited the scope of improvement in inflation. By 2026, the minimum wage increase of over 23%, which in real terms was the highest in history, will lead to a resurgence of inflation. Specifically, inflation is expected to end 2026 at around 6.2%. The impact on inflation is also greater, thanks to the appreciation of the Colombian peso and its effect on the prices of inputs as well as the policy of reducing gasoline prices and the lower indexation based on rents. On the fiscal front, the government closed 2025 with the highest primary fiscal deficit, which excludes interest payments since the crisis of the 1990s and the pandemic. The government addressed the high spending pressures with active debt issuance using alternative mechanisms such as the direct sale of debt to an important investment fund and so of short and long-term debt during the year. Calculations by our economic research team indicate that the Ministry of Finance issued more than COP 110 billion of treasury bonds in 2025 when the stipulated limit was COP 95 billion. For 2026, no major changes are anticipated on the fiscal front. In fact, the deficit could exceed 7% of GDP, given the absence of the fiscal rule and, again, considering high spending and weak revenues. With this scenario where inflation is rebounding and the fiscal situation remains vulnerable, the Central Bank would consolidate an upward trend in interest rates. Our economic research team expects the benchmark interest rate to rise from 9.25% at the end of the year-end of 2025 to 11.25% by mid-2026, a level at which it would remain for at least the remainder of the year. The risks are tilted upwards. With a scenario of higher domestic interest rates, a weak dollar globally due to the United States trade policies and expectations of lower rates from the Federal Reserve, the exchange rate closed 2025 at COP 3,780 per dollar, 50% lower than at the end of 2024. However, in the second half of the year, the downward trend in the exchange rate intensified due to the government sale of dollars. In the second half of the year, the government sold more than $7 billion, an amount not seen since the pandemic. In 2026, the Colombian peso is expected to continue finding support from the wider interest rate differential, the international outlook and the nation's ample dollar availability. However, the election results will be crucial. Currently, the exchange rate is expected to remain below COP 4,000 per dollar throughout the year. Regarding the dynamics of dollar flows in the Colombian economy, it is important to note that for the first time in history, remittances surpassed oil exports as the primary source of dollars of the economy. This further consolidated diversification of the export basket. Finally, the legislative and presidential elections to be held in the first half of 2026 will define the country's economic future. It is too early to draw conclusions about the election results, but the central scenario is based on the expectation that Colombia will have a more fiscally disciplined government, which will reduce uncertainty and promote investment and in general, will make public policy decisions based on technical criteria that boost economic growth. Thank you. Back to you, Maria Lorena.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Camilo. Turning to our financial results. 2025 was a transition year. In the banking segment, gross loans ended the year at COP 190.1 trillion, increasing by 4.8% compared to 2024. Profitability improved meaningfully, supported by a sharp decline in funding costs that expanded the spread between loan yields and funding costs by 41 basis points. Cost of risk improved from 2.3% to 1.9%, reflecting a stronger consumer portfolio performance and disciplined underwriting. Expense growth remained below the increase in the minimum wage, improving efficiency metrics. As a result, return on equity in the banking sector reached double digits. Banco Popular, Banco AV Villas returned to profitability and Banco de Bogota, Banco de Occidente continued improving the results. Despite weak market results at year-end, Porvenir delivered its strongest annual performance to date. Assets under management reached USD 271.2 trillion, an increase of 14.9% and ROAE reached 21.2%. Corfi worked throughout the year to lay the foundation for a new growth cycle driven by portfolio rotation and entry into high potential sectors. Deleveraging efforts and decline in rates led to a 16% reduction in funding costs, reflecting lower debt levels and more favorable interest rates. Finally, operational efficiencies continued to materialize following the exit from financial services. Now I would like to pass the call to Diego, who will give details of our results.

Thank you, Maria Lorena. I will begin by discussing the information on Pages 11 and 12, which includes charts outlining the growth rate and quality of our loan portfolio in comparison to the rest of the Colombian banking system. For consistency, these figures are presented as unconsolidated data under Colombian IFRS, as provided by the Superintendency of Finance. On Page 11, we noted that in 2025, loans within the banking system grew by 2.1% in real terms, with mortgages increasing by 6.3%, consumer loans by 1.48%, and commercial loans by 0.7%, all in real terms. Throughout 2025, our focus has remained on profitable growth, particularly in local currency commercial loans outside the large corporate sector, as well as in personal loans and credit cards. The market share for peso-denominated commercial loans remained steady at 26.3%. We were careful in our approach to large corporate commercial lending due to significant pricing competition, resulting in a loss of 204 basis points; however, we gained 131 basis points in market share for non-large corporate local currency commercial loans. We also increased our market share in areas where we previously had lower weights, such as factoring, where we gained 543 basis points to reach 24.2%, and in government loans, with a gain of 219 basis points to 23%. Nevertheless, in our dollar-denominated commercial loans, where we have historically held a strong position, we decreased our market share by 356 basis points to 35.3%. Moreover, in peso terms, the dollar-denominated commercial loans were adversely affected by the 14.8% appreciation of the Colombian peso throughout the year. Consequently, our overall market share for commercial loans declined by 37 basis points. In the consumer loan segment, we concentrated on diversifying towards high-yield and short-term loans, reducing our reliance on payroll lending. We increased our market share in personal loans by 138 basis points to 21.5%. The acquisition of the Itau consumer business is expected to bring us to market weight. To bolster our credit card sector, where we saw a decline of 132 basis points to 17.4%, we initiated new strategic initiatives while we maintained our leading position in payroll lending, holding a 42.2% market share. Overall, our market share for consumer loans ended at 28.9%, reflecting a decrease of 53 basis points. Moving to mortgages, we continued to grow our market share, achieving a 117 basis point increase during the year. Consequently, our total loans market share closed at 25%, which is 28 basis points lower than in 2024. On Page 12, we observed that loan quality, both within the system and at Aval banks, improved over the year across all categories. Our banks consistently demonstrated superior loan quality compared to the system in all segments. Now, I will transition to discussing the consolidated results of Grupo Aval under IFRS. As noted by Maria Lorena, Banco Bogota has signed a share purchase agreement for the sale of MFG, a Romanian bank. This operation has been classified as noncurrent assets and liabilities held for sale and discontinued operations as of December 2025. For comparison with previously reported periods, we are presenting pro forma balances and ratios reflective of this classification. On Page 13, we detail our assets and loans. Our assets grew by 6.4% year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, amounting to COP 349 trillion. Fixed income investments, comprising 15.8% of our assets, reached COP 5.2 trillion, signaling a growth of 21.2% year-on-year, though decreasing by 0.2% for the quarter. Gross loans, which represent 54.7% of our assets, reached COP 190.9 trillion, up 46% year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter. These growth figures were influenced by a 4.2% depreciation of the Colombian peso in the quarter and a 14.8% depreciation over the year. Peso-denominated loans, now accounting for 91.3% of gross loans, increased by 6.8% year-on-year and by 1.7% in the quarter. Commercial loans rose by 1.9% year-on-year and by 1.1% for the quarter. Peso-denominated commercial loans, which make up 84.7% of gross loans, experienced a 5.5% year-on-year increase and a 1.4% rise during the quarter. Dollar-denominated commercial loans, representing 15.3% of commercial loans, grew by 0.4% year-on-year and by 3.9% in the quarter, while in peso terms, they contracted by 14.5% year-on-year and by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. Consumer loans expanded by 4.7% year-on-year and by 1.2% in the quarter, with personal loans rising by 12% year-on-year and by 5% quarter-on-quarter. Credit cards decreased by 1.5% year-on-year but increased by 2.9% during the quarter. Overall, our loans rose by 0.6% year-on-year and by 1.1% in the quarter. Payroll loans increased by 3.2% year-on-year, although they decreased by 0.9% in the quarter. Mortgages grew by 19.6% year-on-year and by 3.9% in the quarter. On Page 14, we discuss the evolution of funding and deposits, where total funding increased by 8.7% year-on-year and by 1.4% in the quarter. Bank borrowings grew by 28% year-on-year, correlating with the expansion of our trading investment portfolio, as previously stated, and currently constitute 8.2% of total funding. Deposits, which account for about three-quarters of our funding, grew by 11.2% year-on-year and by 3.6% from the previous quarter. Our deposit to net loan ratio concluded at 113%. On Page 15, we cover the growth in our capitalization, attributable shareholders' equity, and the capital adequacy ratio of our banks. Our total equity rose by 0.3% in the quarter and by 4.8% year-on-year, while attributable equity increased by 0.2% in the quarter and by 5.7% year-on-year. The total solvency and Tier 1 ratios indicate relative stability across most of our banks. On Page 16, we provide details on our net interest margin. Net interest income for the year reached COP 9.3 trillion, reflecting a 17.4% increase compared to 2024. The total net interest margin for the year saw an increase of 28 basis points, reaching 3.78% in 2025. Our consolidated net interest margin on loans grew by 28 basis points year-on-year to 4.71%, while the net interest margin on investments decreased by 8 basis points to 0.82%. The net interest margin on loans reflects an 84% year-on-year increase in retail loan margins, reaching 6.33%, and an 18 basis points decrease in commercial loan margins to 3.5%. Looking specifically at our banking segment, the total net interest margin expanded by 8 basis points year-on-year to 4.47%, driven by similar dynamics that impacted our overall net interest margin. The net interest margin on loans stood at 5.24%, representing a 9 basis points year-on-year increase. This includes a 69 basis points rise in the retail loan segment to 6.9%, while the margin on commercial loans decreased by 39 basis points year-on-year to 4.02%. The quarterly net interest margin faced negative impacts from poor capital market performance, linked to a -3.48% net interest margin on investments. However, the net interest margin on loans for the quarter reached 5.05%, which is 48 basis points higher than the previous quarter and the best result in 12 quarters. As noted by Maria Lorena, the recent changes in the monetary cycle due to government decisions may create challenges for net interest margin in the coming quarters. Our financial diversification strategies continue to yield benefits, as we have broadened our funding sources towards less sensitive non-maturing deposits, particularly from individuals and cash management-linked deposits. Our banks have reduced maturities and repricing gaps while implementing active interest rate hedging strategies. On Page 17, we review the yield on loans and cost of funds spread. On a consolidated basis, the average yield on loans for the year fell by 126 basis points to 12.06%, while the annual average 3-month IDR dropped by 158 basis points to 9.4%. The consolidated cost of deposits decreased by 148 basis points during the year to 6.63%, while our cost of funds went down by 141 basis points to 6.8%. On Pages 18 through 20, we share several portfolio quality ratios. Loan portfolio quality ratios continued to show improvement during the quarter, with a decline in past-due loans across all categories. For the year, 30-day past-due loans (PDLs) reached COP 4.2 trillion, which is 32.8% lower than in 2024. The 30-day PDL rate was 4.37%, reflecting a 98 basis point improvement over the last 12 months and a 37 basis point improvement over the quarter. The 90-day PDLs were at 3.29%, representing a 77 basis points improvement year-on-year and an 11 basis points improvement for the quarter. For commercial loans, the 30-day PDLs were 3.84%, showing a 101 basis points improvement year-on-year and a 38 basis points improvement quarter-on-quarter, while the 90-day PDLs were 3.48%, showing a 91 basis points year-on-year improvement and 19 basis pointers in the quarter. For consumer loans, the 30-day PDL rate improved by 117 basis points year-on-year and by 16 basis points in the quarter to 4.67%. The 90-day PDLs also improved, reflecting a 63 basis points year-on-year increase and a 5 basis points increase during the quarter to 2.79%. For mortgages, the 30-day and 90-day PDLs improved by 8 basis points and 10 basis points, respectively, over the quarter to 6.18% and 3.75%. Finally, the ratio of charge-offs to average 90-day PDLs for 2025 was 0.82x. On Page 19, we saw that the stage 1 share of our portfolio increased to 89.8%, while stage 3 decreased for the sixth consecutive quarter to 5.7%, largely due to improvements in our consumer portfolio. Coverage measured as allowances for stages 2 and 3 as a percentage of total stages was 33.6%, declining 545 basis points compared to a year ago due to changes in the mix. On Page 20, for 2025, the cost of risk net of recoveries decreased by 38 basis points to 1.9%, aligning with our expectations for the year. For consumer loans, the cost of risk net of recoveries improved by 157 basis points to 4.2%, which includes a 449 basis points improvement in personal loans to 8.4%. The cost of risk net of recoveries for commercial loans was recorded at 0.7%. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the cost of risk net of recoveries fell by 27 basis points to 1.7%, the lowest in the past 12 quarters, driven by decreases in both commercial and consumer portfolios to 0.6% and 3.8%, down by 36 basis points and 23 basis points, respectively. On Page 21, we share our net fees and other income metrics. The annual gross fee income rose by 6.8%, while net fee income climbed by 5.3%; quarterly gross and net fees increased by 8.5% and 9.6% year-on-year. In terms of annual gross fees, pension and trust fees grew by 9.1% and 14.9%, respectively, supported by performance-based management fees that aligned with the positive returns seen in the financial markets during the year. Our annual income from the non-financial sector was at 84% of that reported in 2024, primarily due to a reduced contribution from the infrastructure sector. Quarterly income was influenced by lower earnings from the energy, gas, and infrastructure sectors, partially offset by gains from hotels. Additionally, the annual increase in operating income was primarily driven by a COP 605 billion improvement in derivatives and foreign exchange gains. Our hedging strategies in relation to the non-financial sector are recognized under foreign exchange gains and contributed COP 863 billion to an annual improvement. During the quarter, one of Promigas’ transportation pipelines transitioned back to the company's property, resulting in a one-time fair value recognition of COP 303 billion, recorded under net income from other financial instruments at fair value through profit and loss. This positive outcome was counterbalanced by a one-time revaluation of deferred tax liabilities amounting to COP 359 billion. After accounting for these factors, the transaction had a net negative impact of COP 56 billion on net income and COP 12 billion on attributable net income. On Page 22, we provide our efficiency ratios. The cost to assets ratio remained constant at 2.6%. The annual cost to income ratio improved by 101 basis points to 52.2% over the quarter, and on a quarterly basis, it reached 54.9%, which is 550 basis points lower than a year earlier. Annual expenses rose by 9.6% during the year, with general and administrative expenses increasing by 9.4% year-on-year and personnel expenses by 6.9% year-on-year, which is below the 9.5% increase in Colombia's minimum wage. Lastly, on Page 23, we showcase our net income and profitability ratios. Attributable net income from continuing operations for the quarter was COP 474 million, representing a 57.5% increase compared to the same quarter last year. The total attributable net income for the year reached COP 1.72 trillion, or COP 72.5 per share, marking an increase of nearly 70% compared to the preceding year. Our annual return on average assets stood at 1% and our average annual return on equity was 9.6%, which is an increase of 28 basis points and 366 basis points over 2024, respectively. Regarding discontinued operations, the results from MFG's operations contributed an additional COP 18 billion to the attributable net income. To conclude, we are updating our guidance to accommodate changes in the macroeconomic environment affecting our business. We anticipate loan growth in the vicinity of 10%, with commercial loans increasing by 7% and retail loans by 14%. Our total net interest margin is expected to be around 4.3%, with the net interest margin on loans in the 4.7% range. We project the net interest margin of the banking segment to be around 5.1%, with the margin on loans in the 5.4% area. The cost of risk net of recoveries is anticipated in the 2% range and the cost to assets at about 2.8%. Income from the non-financial sector is expected to be 1.3 times that of 2025. We anticipate our fee income ratio to be around 21%. Lastly, we expect the return on average equity for 2026 to be in the vicinity of 10.5%. This guidance does not account for the recently announced wealth tax, which we estimate will affect our return on equity by about 1 percentage point. Back to you, Maria Lorena.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you, Diego. Before moving into questions and answers, I would like to share some final thoughts on Colombia and Grupo Aval in 2026. We expect 2026 to continue to be challenging in Colombia given the effects of political volatility and electoral uncertainty. Economic conditions are expected to remain challenging, both locally and globally. We expect GDP growth to remain moderate in 2026 and a restrictive monetary environment. The massive minimum wage increase will put pressure on our cost base and that of our customers. Inflation will remain above the Central Bank's target range, which implies a return to a higher for longer interest rate environment. Despite this backdrop, we strongly believe that we should remain focused in our strategy and improving our business and abstain from echoing uncertainty. The financial sector will continue to be a pillar of trust and investment. We expect to continue growing our financial business and invest through core fee in the nonfinancial sector in the region during 2026. As a result, we expect to continue strengthening our core business, supported by an expansion of risk-adjusted NIM on loans, commercial and operational effectiveness, and a stronger fee generation. In 2026, we will continue delivering new and innovative products. Additionally, during this year, we expect to see increases in efficiencies from shared services and IT integration initiatives and strengthening a client-centered unified corporate culture. So we are now open for questions.

Operator

Our first question will come from the line of Daniel Mora with CrediCorp Capital.

Speaker 5

I have a couple of questions. The first one is regarding the new tax for companies. I would like to know what did you understand for liquid equity as it says that it is gross equity minus debt for the tax? So I would like to understand how it will be applied for Bank of Aval, you already mentioned a 1% point for the consolidated ROE, but I would like to understand what will be the impact across Bank of Aval? That will be the first question. And the second one is also on regulatory issues and regarding taxes, considering the previous economic emergency decree was put on hold, what is the effective tax rate that you are using in your numbers? Are you considering the 15% tax surcharge or paying, for example, deferred taxes?

Sure, I can try to answer your questions. While I'm not a tax advisor, our understanding of how the network tax operates is that it reduces the tax base of the bank or company by the acquisition price of the shares it holds on its taxable balance sheet. This mechanism is expected to function similarly to how it has in the past, reflecting language we've seen previously dating back to 2014. Concerning the group, the attributable impact should be around 1 percentage point. Considering that the attributable equity of Grupo Aval is about 55% to 60% of the consolidated group, our group's tax contributions would be nearly twice what is attributable to our shareholders. In terms of our tax calculations under our guidance, the effective tax rate is projected to be approximately 35%. This figure includes taxes that our financial companies pay, which have an additional surcharge of 5%, as well as taxes paid by other companies minus those that qualify for certain exceptions.

Speaker 1

But it means that is without the economic emergency...

Exactly.

Speaker 1

For the situation that we have before that.

Exactly. That is what we expect on our base. And as I mentioned, the equity tax would add up to that around 5 percentage points if you were to make our calculation based on marginal tax.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Brian Flores with Citibank.

Speaker 6

Can you provide an update on the guidance you provided in the third quarter regarding loan growth, cost of risk, and ROE? I think it would be very useful. And then just to confirm, basically, you're saying your base case is no change in the tax rate, right? You're basically saying we have no surcharge and we have no wealth tax. That is the base case implied in the guidance, right?

Yes. The 10.5%, you're right, the 10.5% basically takes taxes as well, not the taxes from the emergency, and that's why we are guiding into an additional effect that we could have from the wealth tax. Regarding our guidance, we have slightly reduced our guidance on growth. And regarding ROE, there is an implied 150 basis points reduction in guidance and ROE compared to our last call.

Speaker 6

Okay. So just to confirm here, you were, if I'm not mistaken, guiding for a range of 12% to 12.5%. We're basically going to 11% or close to 11%. Is this...

Just restating, we are in the 10.5% area guiding. Last time we were in the 12% area with an upward bias at that point.

Speaker 6

Okay. If I may, you are indicating that there are no changes in the tax rate and slightly lower loan growth. What is the main factor driving the reduction? Is it the net interest margin since you are liability sensitive or less asset sensitive compared to other banks? Or is this more related to the cost of risk? Because you mentioned that efficiencies are expected to improve in 2026 and beyond based on my understanding.

It's a combination of several factors. The primary driver is an improved mix of our loan portfolio, which is also helping us manage the behavior of the Central Bank rate, leading to a relatively better net interest margin year-over-year. There might be a decrease compared to the fourth quarter, which had the best net interest margin, but overall, we are seeing an improvement year-over-year. Additionally, we expect Porvenir to perform better than previously guided for two reasons: the increase in minimum wage will result in higher fee contributions from our customers, and a higher interest rate environment is favorable for Porvenir. Furthermore, we have ongoing inorganic discussions that we anticipate will benefit us. Our mix has been improving, with a strong focus on the retail segment, both organically and inorganically, which also enhances our performance. Notably, our cost of risk remains unchanged. Another area where we could see significant improvement is the net interest margin from investments. Overall, this year has presented volatility, with some periods, such as the fourth quarter, showing a negative net interest margin on investments in our results.

Speaker 6

Super clear. I am very sorry to insist here. Just that I don't understand because if you're assuming no change in cost of risk and you're assuming a better mix and what I understood is a stable NIM, but then you're mentioning basically the reduction on ROE is of 100 bps year-over-year in the guidance. Is this only coming directly from a reduction in your expectations of loan growth, which I assume they were around 8% in the last call?

Yes. I have to correct myself. I just pulled out our guidance last time. We have actually a slight pickup on retail. And we also have, as I mentioned before, when you look at our effective tax rate, we're also building in a higher tax rate for this year.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Ms. Maria Lorena Gutierrez Botero, I turn the call back over to you.

Speaker 1

I just want to say thank you for being here with us and see you in 3 months. Bye.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.