Operator
Good, Dan. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the billion to one second quarter 2026 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there'll be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message device and your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that this conference is being recorded. I would not like to turn the conference over to your speaker today. Gabby Gable, Investor Relations, please go ahead.
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for participating in today's conference call. Joining me on the call from Billion to One, we have Ozan Atay, co-founder and chief executive officer, and Ross Taylor, chief financial officer. Earlier today, Billion to One released financial results for the second quarter ended June 30th, 2026. A copy of the press release is available on the company's website. Before we begin, I want to remind you that during this call, we may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. Such statements about future events may include statements about our financial outlook and performance, market size, our products and services, reimbursement coverage, future clinical performance, and other similar statements. We caution you that such statements reflect our current best judgment and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements. Risk factors that may cause our results to differ are discussed in our filings with the SEC, including our previously filed annual report on Form 10-K, our quarterly report on Form 10-Q to be filed following this call, and the current report on Form 8-K filed today. Any forward-looking statement made during this call is made as of today, August 5, 2026. If this call is replayed or reviewed after today, the information made during this call may not contain current or accurate information. Billion to One disclaims any obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether because of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law. And with that, I will turn the call over to Ozan.
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining our second quarter 2026 earnings call. I would like to start by thanking our patients and providers who trust us with incredibly important healthcare decisions, and our employees who show up every day with tremendous effort to build and deliver superior tests that improve our patient's care and remove the fear of the unknown. Before diving into our quarterly results, I would like to remind you of the four pillars that I believe make us a different category of molecular diagnostics company. The first pillar is our revolutionary technology platform enabled by our patented QCT quantitative counting template technology. Our technology achieves single molecule level sensitivity and precision with next generation sequencing. This has allowed us to build unique category defining products in both prenatal and oncology. In turn in our second pillar our products have allowed us to scale rapidly from zero to $438 million in annualized revenue run rate in six years. But we believe we are still in the early days, perhaps at less than 1% of what is possible, as we believe prenatal and oncology cell-free DNA testing can exceed an estimated $100 billion in the United States alone. Importantly, in our third pillar, with the higher signal-to-noise advantage that our unique technology offers us, and with our relentless focus on COGS reductions and ASP growth, we have been able to couple our rapid growth with a superior gross margin profile. We now have margins above 70% with still significant room for expansion through ASP growth and COGS per test reductions. Finally, this superior gross margin combined with a culture of fiscal discipline and efficient operations incorporating AI has allowed us to achieve gap profitability. We have done this at a much lower scale than our public competitors with an accumulated deficit that is approximately 10% of theirs. In summary, we continue to track toward our long-term goal, which has remained the same, to build a category-defining generational company, transform molecular diagnostics and the standard of care for millions of patients and become a member of the S&P 500. Our second quarter performance was strong across all pillars, as we delivered another quarter with high growth, excellent margins, and positive operating income and cash flow. I will cover each pillar in more detail, but to summarize, we are launching new products both in prenatal and oncology, and we have published data that we believe will support Moldiex coverage for Northstar response. our rapid growth continued with test volume up 35 percent year over year and revenue up 64 percent year over year we maintained our superior gross margin profile which was 70.5 percent in the quarter an expansion of five percentage points year over year our gross margins stayed remarkably consistent in the past few quarters despite an increase in Coxsburg test as our mix shifts toward a higher proportion of oncology tests. And lastly, even as we accelerated our investments in commercial scale and R&D, we maintained a strong level of profitability, achieving $5.5 million of gap operating income, a 5% operating margin, and a remarkable 15% adjusted EBITDA margin. As a result, we increased our cash position to $549 million at the end of the quarter. Let me take you through the quarter, pillar by pillar. Starting with our first pillar, our platform and products. In prenatal, Unity Confirm has seen strong adoption following the launch of May 28. As a reminder, it is the first and only non-invasive confirmation assay for high-risk pregnancies. It captures and sequences intact circulating fetal cells to provide 100% fetal fraction, a fundamentally different category from conventional cell-free DNA tests. We launched it as a specialized follow-on for high-risk pregnancies identified on our unity and employee screen. Unity Confirm gives patients who cannot or choose not to proceed to invasive diagnostic testing a non-invasive option they didn't have before at a sensitive time when options may feel limited. The early reception of Unity Confirm has been exceptional. Providers are already ordering Unity Confirm on more than 50% of their eligible high-risk Unity aneuploidy patients. We also continue to enroll patients in what we believe is the largest prospective circulating fetal cell-based study ever conducted. In the meantime, Unity Confirm is opening doors even to no-see health systems that typically do not allow any sales reps. We expect its long-term impact for the Unity franchise to be significant, especially as future readouts from the study mature and it is established as the next paradigm in non-invasive testing. But our prenatal product engine did not stop there. On August 17, we are expanding our Unity Fetal Risk Screen to 130 genes, the largest panel on the market that doesn't rely on partner testing, by far leapfrogging competitive offerings. Approximately 50% of all providers prefer large panels for these inherited conditions. So we believe that this expansion will meaningfully increase our serviceable market. The panel screens for prevalent, actionable conditions selected from ACOG, ACMG, and RUST guidelines, and it reinforces Unity's position as the leader in cell-free DNA testing for recessive conditions. Turning to oncology, we generated important new clinical evidence this quarter. On June 24, we published a peer-reviewed study in the Journal of Liquid Biopsy validating Northstar response for monitoring immunotherapy and immunocombination therapy. This study included 142 patients and more than 750 samples across two prospective cohorts and 12 tumor types. Molecular progression strongly predicted worse survival, notably a stronger predictor than imaging alone and stronger still when the two were combined. The test also separated radiographically stable patients into true responders and non-responders, further demonstrating value over standard of care imaging. This publication is designed to support our pursuit of MoldiX Medicare coverage for Northstar response in the IO and IO combination therapy settings. Since response accounts for almost two-thirds of our oncology test volume, this coverage remains one of our most meaningful catalysts and is still expected by the end of this year. Speaking of catalysts, we remain on track for our highly sensitive tumor-naive MRD launch by the end of the year as well. It is important to note that our liquid biopsy assays have a QC failure rate below 1%, compared to 15-30% typical of assays that require tissue sequencing. We are also updating Northstar Select on September 1st in two important ways. First, we are expanding the panel to 102 genes to cover recent and upcoming FDA therapy approvals, including the highly sensitive detection of MTAP copy number loss. MTAP loss is present in approximately 15% of all cancer patients and is the target of several promising ongoing clinical trials. As we previously discussed, copy number losses are extremely difficult to detect in liquid biopsy, a problem that our technology resolves. second we are launching north star origin a tissue of origin add-on which we believe will deliver best in class performance with higher call rates than any similar offering roughly three percent of patients present with cancer of unknown primary which results in a lack of effective therapy options. Moreover, the percentage of patients with uncertain diagnoses can reach 10% in community oncology settings, especially when they do not have access to detailed pathology workups. Northstar Origin uses QCT-based molecular counting of methylation to deliver 91% top three and 86% top one accuracy in identifying the tissue of origin, helping these patients get to a diagnosis and effective therapy. Turning to our second pillar, scalable rapid growth. In the second quarter, total test volume grew 35% year-over-year to approximately 196,000 tests, up approximately 8 000 sequentially our growth was in line with our expectations for prenatal and above expectations for oncology importantly we added approximately 70 sales representatives in the first half of the year ahead of our plan given the strength of our hiring pipeline While this rate of hiring did have some impact on our short-term sales productivity, we expect our hiring to translate into faster growth, exiting the year, and into the early part of the next year, as these representatives become fully productive and penetrate the health systems, especially as these health systems also become EMR integrated. Speaking of EMR integrations, we launched on Epic's Aura platform in under five months, a record speed for any laboratory to launch on Epic Aura, and completed our first Aura health system integration in just two weeks, from start to first test order. Epic Aura removes a critical barrier to health system adoption. It will still take time to convert health systems, since each health systems IT team must slot our integration into a roadmap that is often two to four quarters out. But we expect the impact to be meaningful as we enter next year. Given how quickly our oncology tests are scaling, we also signed the lease for a dedicated 62,000 square foot oncology production lab, directly across from our existing prenatal production lab in Union City, California. Design and build-out are underway, with production expected by the end of 2027, and the facility is designed to support oncology capacity of approximately 5,000 tests per day over time. Looking at each product line, both prenatal and oncology contributed meaningfully to our growth. Prenatal revenue in the second quarter was $95.8 million, up 56% year-over-year, driven by strong commercial execution and rising ASPs. Oncology was even faster, with its revenue growing 176% year-over-year, nearly three times to $13.7 million, an annualized revenue run rate of approximately $55 million. Our total revenue performance in the quarter demonstrates the remarkable growth we have delivered in the last six years, rising from approximately zero to $438 million in annualized run rate total revenue was 109.4 million dollars in the quarter representing 64 percent year-over-year growth driven by strong year-over-year increases in both tests delivered up 35 percent and asb up 21 percent i would note that while reported revenue was only slightly up sequentially that understates our underlying momentum. Excluding through-up revenue, total revenue grew 8% sequentially quarter over quarter. The sustained level of growth continues to be an important part of our pillars. Moving to our third pillar and starting with our ASBs. Overall ASB increased 21% year-over-year to $551 per test. ASV did decline about $20 sequentially, but this is simply a result of true-up timing. True-up was $49 per test in the first quarter versus $14 per test in the second quarter. Importantly, excluding the true-up's impact, ASVs increased $15 quarter over quarter. During the quarter, through a mutual agreement, we held more than $10 million of claims while waiting for the in-network implementation of our codes by national payers. This had a temporary impact on cash collections, slightly impacted the ASPs that we could realize, and potentially reduced the true-up revenue for the quarter. We expect this to resolve through the second half of the year as these claims are processed and paid. The more important underlying signal is this. Excluding true-up, overall ASP continue to increase sequentially, driven by a record number of payer contracts signed in the quarter. In addition to driving ASB growth, we have remained committed to our operating philosophy of continuous improvements to reduce COGS per test. Overall COGS per test was $161 in the second quarter, up from $152 in the first quarter and $156 a year ago, with the increase driven by the shift in our volume mix towards oncology. Underneath that mixed effect, the operational discipline is very much intact. Prenatal COGS was approximately flat sequentially, even with the unity-confirmed launch, and we achieved COGS reductions of more than 10% quarter over quarter in oncology. As oncology continues to grow faster than prenatal, we expect overall COGS per test to rise gradually over time. As a result, our gross margin held at 70.5% in the second quarter, approximately 5 percentage points higher year-over-year, driven by higher ASPs, even as our earlier stage, lower-margin oncology tests grew more than 100% during this same period. Importantly, small quarter-over-quarter differences in gross margin over the past four quarters are almost entirely attributable to quarterly true-up differences. Excluding true-up, our gross margin has been remarkably stable at around 70%, even with the significant mixed shift towards oncology. By continuing to derive ASP increases across both prenatal and oncology, and by continuing to reduce cogs in oncology, we expect to maintain strong gross margins at or above 70%, even as oncology becomes a much bigger part of our overall business. With that, I will turn the call over to Ross to review our financial results and guidance before I conclude.
Thank you, Ozan. As Ozan mentioned, in Q2 of 2026, we had a strong performance that combined 64% year-over-year revenue growth with a 5% GAAP operating margin and a 15% adjusted EBITDA margin. Total revenue in the second quarter of 2026 was $109.4 million, compared to $66.6 million in the second quarter of 2025, representing an increase of 64%. Both our prenatal and oncology product lines demonstrated strong growth in the quarter. Prenatal revenues, consisting of clinical testing revenues and revenues from clinical trial support and other services increased 56% to $95.8 million in Q2. Oncology revenues increased 176% to $13.7 million in Q2 of 2026 versus Q2 of last year. Our total revenue growth was driven primarily by test volume growth across both prenatal and oncology, as well as continued expansion of both our prenatal and oncology ASPs year-over-year. True-up revenue was $2.8 million in the second quarter of 2026 compared to $9.2 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $2.1 million in the second quarter last year. Excluding true-up revenue, total revenue grew 8% sequentially versus the first quarter of 2026. Gross profit in the second quarter of 2026 was $77.1 million compared to $43.5 million in the second quarter of 2025, resulting in a gross margin of 70.5% in the second quarter of 2026 versus 65.3% in the second quarter last year. The increase in gross margin was primarily attributable to continued increases in our overall ASP. Total operating expenses were $71.6 million in the second quarter of 2026, compared to $45.1 million in the comparable prior year quarter, representing an increase of 59%. Within total operating expenses, R&D expense was $17.3 million dollars in the second quarter of 2026, compared to 11.8 million dollars in the comparable prior year quarter. SG&A expense was 54.3 million dollars in the second quarter of 2026, compared to 33.3 million dollars in the comparable prior year quarter. Operating income was 5.5 million dollars in the second quarter of 2026, compared to an operating loss of 1.6 million dollars in second quarter of 2025 our q2 operating profit margin was five percent compared to the 16 operating margin we delivered in the first quarter of 2026 slightly over half of the difference in operating profit compared to q1 was due to the difference in true up revenue between the two quarters the remaining portion was driven by continued investment in our commercial and r d organizations as well as faster growth in oncology. Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 represented a 15% margin. Net income available to common shareholders was $8.1 million, or $0.15 per diluted share, in the second quarter of 2026, compared to a net loss of $0.2 million for the same period in 2025. Looking at the cash flow statement for the second quarter. The cash flow from operations was $9.1 million, while capital expenditures were $4.0 million. This resulted in free cash flow of $5.1 million in the second quarter of 2026. We are well capitalized with a very healthy balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with $549 million in cash and equivalents. We believe our balance sheet positions us for strong growth moving forward, particularly given our intent to continue to manage the business for profitability and positive cash flow. Finally, I will provide an update on our full year guidance for 2026. We are reiterating our 2026 total revenue outlook of $450 million to $465 million, representing growth of approximately 48% to 52% compared to full year 2025. We also expect to operate the business such that it will continue to generate profitability similar to current levels, even with significant continued investments. I will now turn the call back to Osan to conclude.
Thank you, Ross. In summary, we are transforming healthcare one molecule at a time, one patient at a time. My confidence, as always, is rooted not in any single element, but in the compounding nature of what we have built. Each product we launch makes our platform more powerful, from Unity Confirm to our expanded fetal risk screen to Northstar Origin. And each study we publish further validates the clinical utility of our technology as our Northstar Response publication did this quarter. Our financial profile remains best in class for our industry. Once again, this quarter, we demonstrated strong revenue growth to $438 million in annualized run rate. We held gross margins above 70%, and we showed that rapid growth does not have to come at the expense of profitability. We are powered by a team of highly motivated, mission-driven individuals who show up every day with a shared purpose – to make a meaningful difference in patients' lives. Our ambition remains clear – to transform molecular diagnostics, build a category-defining company and earn a place in the S&P 500. We are pleased with our progress and look forward to updating you as the year progresses. Thank you. Over to the operator.
Operator
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. If you have a question or a comment at this time, please press star 1-1 on your telephone. If your question has been answered or you wish to move yourself from the queue, please press star 1-1 again. We will pause for a moment while we compile our Q&A roster.
Operator
Our first question comes from Mark Massaro with BTIG. your line is open.
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking the questions. Maybe the first one, obviously, it looks like the true-up number dropped by approximately 6 million or so in Q2 relative to Q1.
I guess, Ozon and Ross, I just wanted to check if X true-ups, just double-checking that your prenatal test revenue would have increased. sequentially is that correct um that is correct mark uh both test volumes and asps for prenatal extra actually increased so the combination uh increased significantly as well russ do you want to comment on the actual numbers uh boy the actuals on the prenatal revenue yeah prenatal revenue um you know honestly mark you can assume that you know virtually all of the
uh true up is related to prenatal we do have a chart i think it's slide 14 and the you know deck where i think you can make some pretty good estimates as to where the prenatal revenue is x true up um so i don't have the actual numbers right in front of me and we haven't given out those specifics in the past, but it is up, you know, more than a couple million dollars, you know, sequentially, you know, X true up.
Yeah. Okay. And then I do understand you guys operate in a competitive market. There are many other players operating in the space. I know you've been taking share for years now, I guess. Can you just speak to what you might be seeing in the competitive market. And then related to that, my last question, you did accelerate hiring of sales reps, it sounds like relative to your plan. I'm just curious if any of those stepped up hires might have something to do with the competitive environment.
So second quarter volumes were almost entirely as we expected in the quarter mark you know we did grow as much as we expected in prenatal and slightly above expectations in oncology with respect to test volume we weren't doing the hiring due to the competitive environment but uh all actually due to continued opportunity that we have especially with respect to health systems you know we are managing the business uh for more medium to long-term growth um and um you know there are maybe about four factors that we believe that will come together in the next you know two to four quarters that will really derive significant growth uh in prenatal you know the hiring of sales reps is one but of course that takes time for them to be on board and be productive and start penetrating health systems um you know just as we onboard these sales reps you need to confirm is opening up doors to no see health systems and you know we believe that will be further accelerated with more data readouts that we'll have you know in the next two to three quarters third you know we completed the onboarding to epic order platform you know faster than any other lab um and that will, you know, take two to four quarters to see a significant impact, but we are executing extremely well there. And then finally, I want to really underline the importance of the 130 gene fetal risk green launch. You know, this is going to be a significant competitive advantage, but it will make an even bigger impact in health systems where they want a portfolio of offerings, including these large panels. So we really believe that these four factors are going to come together in the next two to four quarters to create and build an engine of health system adoption that can drive substantial volume growth. And, you know, what we are really doing in the first half of the year is to, you know, with the hiring pipeline that, you know, we have been able to generate, you know, post going public, you know, we have accelerated hiring so that all of these reps are, you know, joining and getting on board at the right time.
So that as all of these opportunities are coming together we have a really strong chance of converting these these test volumes from health systems yeah maybe just a quick follow-up mark i did look up some of the numbers to try to answer the earlier part of your question and i'm not going to get overly specific but i think you know quarter to quarter we did see about a four and a half million dollar increase in prenatal revenues if you exclude the true up you know it's about five percent growth sequentially So just to get a little more specific.
Operator
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Dan Arias with Stiefel. Your line is open.
Yeah, hi, guys. Thanks for the question. I think you alluded a little bit to the volume trend there. Can you maybe just put some additional color to the trend sequentially in oncology if you strip out the ASP dynamic? to what degree was quarterly volume up as a trajectory? And then, you know, how should we think about things for the second half of the year relative to the way that maybe you were thinking about things earlier in the year?
So ASPs for oncology actually did not change in quarter over quarter. You know, we are, you know, we are waiting and working on the MALDEX coverage of response. So until that happens, ASPs are pretty stable in oncology. And if you look at the chart that Ross referred to throughout for oncology was both quarters was almost, you know, very minimal as well. So all of the growth that you are seeing sequentially is coming from the test volume growth in oncology. So oncology test volumes are doing really well, you know, even ahead of our expectations. And that is one of the, you know, reasons that we have started to build this oncology lab to, you know, I think we are seeing that we are winning in the market with the products that we have. And as we are adding more competitive components to our oncology products, you know, we are very confident on the trajectory.
Do you think that that trajectory will lead to sequentially up volumes each quarter? I mean, 4Q can be a little bit of a funky quarter, but you do sound like you have good momentum.
So, you know, not to put too fine of a point on it, but I'm just curious whether 2Q to 3Q can be up and then 3Q to 4Q can be up as well so that we model this thing correctly. thank you yeah i think um you know two to three q we uh certainly uh see very strong momentum and as you mentioned three q to four q tends to be um a little bit of a um you know in terms of number of providers that we add it tends to be a strong quarter but in terms of the number of accessioning days and how the test volumes and revenues translate you know it tends to be a little bit of a shorter quarter, but we are seeing that our oncology is progressing ahead of the plan.
Operator
Okay, thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Sabu Nambi with Guggenheim. Your line is open.
Ricky
Analyst — Guggenheim
Hi, this is Ricky on for Sabu. Thanks for taking our questions. So, you gave some color on the Unity confirmed launch and adoption and the 50% opt-in for the eligible results. So while it's still early in the launch, do you think that that's already starting to drive share gains in NIPT?
I think it is certainly opening up doors and it is reducing the tendency for at least some accounts to split. You know, I think it is rare for prenatal clinics to split their test volumes over multiple labs, but Unity Confirm does prevent that's splitting i think more significantly um but i think it is going to be a long term driver rather than a much shorter term driver particularly because a lot of the remaining opportunities health systems and they don't get on board that you know within you know one or two months you need to confirm launch in may 28th you know and it is already seeing strong adoption and it's already getting us, you know, through the door in these health systems. But these health systems require, you know, many other things like EMR before they can switch to another lab. And this is why, you know, we are really confident that all of these factors are coming in together to drive an acceleration of growth, especially as you look to growth next year.
Ricky
Analyst — Guggenheim
Got it. That's helpful. And you also announced the expanded 130 gene risk screen panel. Just wondering if there's any change to how you're thinking about the economics per test there, either in terms of reimbursement or the COGS. Thanks.
We do not expect much of a difference in the economics with respect to 130 gene panel. It's not going to be immediately a large portion of our test volume either but i think it is going to enable us to get into some of these health systems and other places that strongly prefer existence of a large panel and because this is the only large panel with the cell-free dna offering i think it is going to be a big competitive advantage for us thank you one moment for our next question our next question comes from Tycho-Federson with Jeffries.
Operator
Your line is open.
Hi, this is Noah Kavan for Tyco. Thanks for taking our questions. I wanted to ask on the North Star Origin announcement today. What percentage of your patient-based data you think is relevant for potential attach here?
And how are you assuming that the economics play out here over the next couple of quarters? so north star origin will not necessarily change the economics of the product that much but it is going to i think derive incremental adoption of our products in particular you know this has been an increasingly important point of discussion with providers that we are seeing um so it is i think very uh it is becoming very important uh especially in community oncology settings where the um the percentage of cases is not three percent so cop cases um the you know truly unknown primary case is about three percent and you know that can be an important reason for some of the oncologists to prefer one platform over other. But we are also seeing that in the community oncology settings, this problem is more than a 3% problem, especially as they do not have access to always pathology workups. And there, you know, one in 10 patients might actually have an uncertain diagnosis. And that really makes the next steps very difficult for these patients. So So I don't think it will change the economics, but it will be another driver of adoption, similar to what we have seen so far with our CH chip sequencing as well as the PGX offerings that we launched in the first quarter. And for my follow-up here, one of your competitors noted incremental payer friction in prenatal testing and more so in the carrier screening side of things. curious if there's you know anything you can comment on there if you're seeing any friction there we are not seeing any friction there but that is also because we we have been I think very intentional about how we went about coding in this particular field you know we we bill almost vast majority of our tests using the PLA codes that we have obtained rather than relying on some of of the bundled or stacked billing that tends to be more common. And this is something that we have observed, especially with some of the national payers, requiring these panels not to be unbundled and billed with separate codes. But we were able to get our PLA code effective January 2025. So, we do not have the problem that I think some of the other prenatal testing companies might have with respect to friction.
Operator
One moment for our next question. The question comes from David Westenberg with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.
Thank you for taking my question. So, I wanted to ask on, if you look year over year, you actually, on slide 14, and thanks, that's a lot of data. I think, you know, you know, Ross mentioned $4.5 million sequentially revenue. It looked over year over year, it looks like the same. I'm just kind of curious, you know, I know Deterra reports seasonality in Q2. I know traditionally you guys said you haven't seen it, but, you know, you were a lot smaller percentage of the market. So do you think you might have additional seasonality in Q2 in non-3DNL testing and that, you know, know, maybe it would follow the same exact trends where you'd see, you know, Q3 and Q4 potentially doing better?
So certainly there are fewer patients that are getting tested in the accounts that we already have. So there is, I think, certainly a small impact with respect to seasonality. We do not model that seasonality, and we were able to be ahead of our plan even with that seasonality, and we didn't, you know, want to refer to seasonality in a quarter where we were able to be, you know, at or ahead of, you know, what we had modeled without the seasonality, but it is certainly true, you know, if you look at the number of, you know, pregnancies and births or even the number of tests that you get from accounts that you know you are getting 100 percent of the test volume uh there is a drop in q2 uh in terms of the test volume so there is that that seasonality i think is real i think the effect tends to be
relatively small but as i think as you pointed out as we get larger there is certainly uh the seasonality can have a bigger impact um we didn't want to refer to it because you know we didn't model list that way got it okay um and then i just want to talk about the the disclosed claims of 10 million i think pending in q2 network um by national payers that you suppressed up your true ups uh can you help us bridge us once those specific claims are processed how does that 10 million dollar flow through and then you know um i just want to make sure a clarification i think it's you know always been the case but you were not modeling true ups in the back half with your guidance correct i just you know i i think that's been you know how you've always done it but just want to confirm.
Thank you. Thank you guys so much. Ross, do you want to take the true-up question and then I'll take the 10 million dollar question?
Yeah, that's correct regarding the true-ups and our guidance. You know, David, we really are not including any true-ups in our kind of forward looking guidance here beyond what we've already reported.
And with respect to the 10 million dollars of health claims you know while a portion of it is embedded in realized revenue as we are required under ASC 606 you know we have been very conservative in how we approach this and so there is meaningful upside if all these back claims process and pay you know we want to be conservative here we don't yet know the full timing or amount of you know what will ultimately be collected on the claims held. So that is why we are maintaining guidance, you know, until that is clearer.
Operator
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Casey Woodring with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.
Great. Thank you for taking my questions. Maybe just one, you know, you talked a lot about launching on Epic Aura in the quarter and that, you know, you've integrated faster than any other lab. Is there a scenario where you can be fully integrated by the time we enter 2027. And, you know, you talked about a meaningful impact next year, maybe like any way to quantify, you know, what the impact would look like from full integration in your base case.
Thank you, Casey. We are fully integrated with Epic Aura. The issue is that even after the full integration with Epic Aura, there is still work that each health system needs to do to turn on their epic aura and make sure that everything goes back and forth correctly with respect to orders and test results. Typically, a time that a lab takes to integrate with each health system separately, like uniquely, still tends to be, with many labs, six months or more. You know, that is what we heard in the field. We, our integration have been lightning fast in comparison. You know, our first integrations have been, you know, two to four weeks, which is a record time even for, you know, these individual health system integrations. So we are using that to try to get these health systems to prioritize our integrations and slot the kind of individual integration into their roadmap. but it can still be two to four quarters ahead. But as soon as we are green lighted, we can do these integrations extremely fast. And once they are done, I think we see meaningful test volume growth. Just to give you a sense, once a health system is onboarded, each one can be anywhere between, you know, one to 3,000 tests per quarter. The issue tends to be, you know, this tends to be a funnel. And, you know, the funnel really started, you know, as of, you know, May or June. And, you know, as we are getting into data roadmaps, I think it is going to be slow initially, and it will, you know, accelerate, you know, over time pretty significantly. You know, in terms of, you know, how much test volume that it is going to incrementally bring, that is very difficult to say because, again, it is not about our own teams and what they can do. It is how many health systems, you know, that we can convince to put our individual integration into their roadmap.
I see. That's helpful. And then maybe just one on the gross margin profile. You know, you did 70 and a half percent here. You know, how should we think about that progression once response, you know, is reimbursed? You know, kind of like what's the forward looking trajectory there once you're able to turn that on?
Thank you. That's a good question. You know, one way to think about this is that we are really managing the business for balancing that growth. and, you know, with gross margin and profitability. And, you know, even when response comes in, you know, with the MoldX coverage, we will be launching MRD at that time, and we are not going to be throttling the MRD test volume. So what that will mean is that, you know, as the response ASP goes, you know, it goes up and as our oncology gross margins increase, you know, we will have diluted gross margins that will be coming from that growth that we will see from MRV. So the way that we are thinking about this is that if the business operates as planned and modeled, we expect to maintain 70% gross margin, regardless of the mix or growth of oncology or lumpness of the throw-up revenue. This is what we have seen in the last four quarters, where the gross margin was 70% without drop every quarter, you know, despite the really fast growth that we had in oncology. So I think, you know, we will continue to see that and we will continue to, I think, manage the business to be above 70% gross margin, you know, by, you know, by increasing ASVs in different product lines and reducing COGS, especially in oncology. That said, you know, an unexpected acceleration in oncology business, you know, far beyond what we are modeling could even result in gross margins to be temporarily below 70%. I think the important thing here is that every product is designed to generate 70 to 80% gross margin in the long term with scale and appropriate coverage. It is just that, you know, as some of our products that are more mature that get closer to 80% gross margin, we are building and launching new products that become diluted to gross margin. The balance becomes something in the range of 70% gross margin.
Operator
And I'm not showing any further questions at this time. And as such, this does conclude today's presentation. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.