Macro Bank Inc. (BMA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Good morning and welcome to Bank of Map's second quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you all for joining us today. Bank of Map's second quarter earnings release was distributed yesterday and is available on our investor relations website. For this quarter's call, we are also introducing an earnings call presentation which will lead to accompanying today's remark. The presentation will be available on our website following the call. Please note that this call may include forward-looking statements and please refer to our FTC items for better information. All figures discussed today are in R70 pesos and have been restated in terms of the Michigan unit current at the end of the reporting period in accordance with central bank regulations. With that, let me briefly introduce today's speakers. I'm the Institute Financial Officer at Banco Macro and myself, Nicola Torres, Investor Relations from Banco Macro. 2026 macroeconomic context before moving on to the past second quarter 2026 financial performance economic activity moderated after the first quarter with 8th and may economic activity averaging 0.8 percent below the first quarter of 2026 having countered mining offset weakness in manufacturing and commerce inflation divided throughout the quarter from 2.6 percent in april to 1.9 percent OK, at this time we are going to open it up for questions and answers.

If you would like to ask a question, please press the Q&A button at the bottom of the Or to ask a question audio, click on raise hand. We will then receive a request to activate your microphone. One moment please for the first question. Our first question comes from Judo Fernandes with GP Morgan.

Hi all, good morning and thank you for the opportunity of asking questions. I have a follow-up on asset quality and thank you for the slide presenting some of the metrics. It is clear that was this model update, right, that drove some, you know, adjustments here. But still there was an ongoing worsening and a drop on your coverage ratio, right? So if you can give us just some more to look on how do you see cost of risk, how do you see NPLs evolving for the second half, and regarding the coverage, if this should be like the minimum, because I know macro still has a good level when we compare to some peers, but the delta is narrow now, right, this quarter. So if you can also give us a message regarding.

In NPLs, basically, what we saw at some point is that the deterioration on the consumer portfolio continued, maybe at a lower pace than the one that we saw in the first quarter. There were some also pick-up in the rhythm of a deterioration on the company's portfolio.

Thank you for the numbers. And if I may, a second one, just on growth. I think last week there was a measure to flexibilize a little bit again the dollar lending, right? I think there's a cap on 15% of your deposits. I know, Macro, you were already lending in dollars with your own resources. How do you see this measure, Jorge? And also the long outlook, you know, like should we see an acceleration from here?

How are you seeing overall? you know I guess your your former guidance of 15 to 20 on real growth may be a little bit challenging so I don't know if you wish this new measure maybe we can see you know better dynamism for for growth in Argentina yeah what we are seeing is something that is related to what Juan Palma commented before we We are starting the beginning of the pre-electoral year and, of course, this government has been very precise and making a lot of focus on maintaining inflation under control. What we are seeing is that this has an impact on what we are seeing nowadays in the domestic intense rate that have increased a little bit compared to what happened in the second quarter so that's why our forecast is being reduced to level of around five percent and maybe slightly downwards so let's make a rate between two and five in real terms for assuming that the The PESO loans will grow in a similar rate than the monthly inflation figure. In terms of the dollar-denominated loans, we are also assuming that they will grow at 2.5% a month, and also we are assuming that it's going to be a slight devaluation of the PESO between June and December of around 12-13%. So, if you do the math there, you can get to the level of between 2% and 5% real terms that we are talking to. In relation to the new regulation, the new measure that the Central Bank announced, where banks cannot let U.S. dollar deposits to those companies that are not generating U.S. dollars, we think that that is something that will bring some growth to the portfolio. For the moment, we are not expecting a boom or a huge increase in the near term, but this is something that maybe could have more impact in 2027, but we see this measure as a positive for the system and, of course, for the country.

No, super clear. Thank you very much.

Our next question comes from Juliana O'Hara with Good News Sachs.

Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. I just have two follow-ups. I think one is on your asset quality. I was wondering if you could share some more color on how your write-offs and your recovery trends are going and how you expect it to trend going forward. and the second one is on long girls next year you have an election year and I think long girls this year should be a little bit more muted than we expected so how do you think and if you could share already some broad expectations for long growth next year would be super great thank you our next question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America

thank you hi good morning Juan Jorge and Nicolas thanks for the opportunity to ask questions my first question will be on the political side we have started to see some kind of service or initial polls ahead of the presidential election I think it's too soon but we are starting to see them so can you provide us what are you seeing on your side how is the business sentiment how How is the consumer confidence ahead of the election? And for my second question is on your earnings expectations and ROE evolution throughout the rest of the year. Your recurring ROE, the adjusted ROE is already at a double digit. So how should we think about the evolution of this ROE that in the second quarter, the adjusted one was at 14%. How should we think for the second half and for the full year? Thank you.

I think the first question on the political side, as you can imagine, we try to avoid making forward-looking statements or predictions in terms of politics. Having said that, it is clear, as Corby mentioned, that this is a pre-electoral year and that bad year approaches and unless there is a super clear coming through the polls that creates a bit more, the government has been the central bank, what will likely happen which is that we will see. However, I must say that comparing this pre-electoral year with other pre-electoral years in the past, the good side is that the US dollar deposit in record highs in the public.

Super helpful, thank you very much Juan and Jorge.

This question comes from Brian Flores, The City.

Hi Tim, good morning, thank you for the opportunity. I wanted to ask you two things. The first one is looking at your 2030 strategic plans. I just wanted to check which levers should drive the ROE to your mid-term target and first obviously if can disclose it, where do you see the bank in terms of real ROE? And then what could drive it? I'm asking this because, as Jorge was mentioning, it seems that means should structurally come down, right? Maybe to be compensated with higher volumes, and you're running at an efficiency ratio that seems historically good for you, but also you will need to be investing into this new, I would say, customer acquisition strategies, right? So I just wanted to check in your view what levels of ROE are you looking in a sustainable basis and then what are the key levers that will get you there. And then my second question is more of a sentiment one and maybe this is something that we on the sales side we're scratching our heads with and maybe obviously you can help us here. Maybe we can scratch our heads together. But we're wondering here, you're revising upwards ROE, and I think the industry as a whole is turning around in terms of unit economics. However, valuation seems to be coming down in a very, I would say, sharp way, right? So clearly the market is worried about something. Just wanted to check with you in your view if it could be the level of growth that, as you were mentioning in your own guidance, is coming down and maybe the perspectives have shifted. Or do you think maybe on the political side, as Ernesto was saying, in terms of big uncertainties in 2027 and forward, right? I know it's a tough question, but any insights here, I think it's great.

Hi, Brian. The ROE is pretty clear that the first half was much better than what we had in the coming two quarters. I agree with you that valuations, and I think that that is basically not only the international scenario is becoming a bit more scary, let's put it in that way, when you look at 30-year interest rates, they are up, when you look at the amount of the data, so at some point, I think that, so I think at some point, it's not only volatile, the best place to allocate, in terms of the first question,

I would add to the previous comments that Korky made on valuations that are adding to the global turmoil. It's also the fact, as we mentioned before, that we are navigating a pre-electoral year. So part of what we are seeing in the valuations, not only of banks, but in general of Argentinian assets has to do with that so we don't see this as a long-term concern but something that should be cleared out once we pass because outlook becomes more clear for the next four-year term in terms of the levers to achieve long-term ROE you're right if we believe that the central scenario is one where Argentina continues its stabilization process and inflation continues going down and rates continue going down, there will be a trade-off with, on one hand, margins continue compressing and, on the other hand, the financial system expanding where volumes should long-term more than compensate for the reduction in margins. But short-term, it's the opposite. Typically, margins compress before the volume comes. So that's the transition that we see for the next five years in Argentina in this central scenario. Margin is compressing as inflation rates go down, and volumes as we harvest the opportunity of moving long-through GDP, which today stand at 11% to regional averages of 30, 40, 50%, that's the macro context for the industry. In our case, the levers are capturing that growth and above efficiency and market share.

Super clear, Jorge and Juan.

If I may just follow up on the level that you envision in 2030 at the sustainable levels of ROE, do you have a specific target in mind yes I mean going forward and of course so they don't implies I mean we aren't yeah I mean it's place of going to single digits and at some point if we continue like these we assume that in 2028 Argentina will leave aside the inflation accounting so they are we

reported in 2030 it should be nominal so are we by 2030 super clear thank you our next question comes from Peter Lidluck with itaubbba hello everybody thank you for for the call and take my question can we explore a a little bit more. That part, I know it will come out to efficiency, but you've been doing a lot of changes in the footprint, but also modernizing the tech and consumer-facing stack. And I'm trying to square it out when I'm modeling it forward as well. Thinking less about efficiency, because top line moves a lot, but more on maybe on real terms, just to see where we are with the balance of savings and investments that you're doing thank you our next question comes

from Marius Taylor with ito hey guys good morning just some question on margins yeah we saw this quarter is what we saw is that funding cost actually went down but all of that was upset by lower lower acid yields so on and what we've seen at the beginning of the third quarter is that a little bit more volatility in the local rate. So I was wondering, I mean, if the evolution of the margins for the rest of the year can be a little bit more challenging given that, you know, that cost of funds can kind of like reverse at the same time that that's just, you know, keep down on the pressure that we saw in the second quarter. So what's the danger here for the evolution of margins in the remainder of the year and for the guidance for that matter.

I commented this before, I think that the margins, the netting margins that we saw in the first half of the year were slightly wider than the ones that we had expected. We believe that going forward, this level of margins would be maintained. I mean, at the beginning of the year, we were expecting to have net interest margin in the area of 20% of the guidance. Now, after the fair half, I will have to say that we should be above the 20% net interest margin in the guidance. So the idea…

And just to confirm what you mentioned about loan growth, the guidance, I believe it was between 15 and 20 percent, do you maintain that guidance or...?

I mean, no, now the new one is between two and five in real terms and I explained the evolution of the peso and dollar those before.

Yeah, yeah, that was pretty clear. I was trying to go further. Okay, thank you. Welcome.

Our next question comes from Camila Azevedo with UBS.

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I have two questions for my end, two follow-ups. So first on growth, I just wanted to get your sense on the recent performance of the last month and August, starting August. And also, sorry, in the second quarter by economic sector or customer segments, and which would be the main drivers behind growth that you are mainly expected by sector as well. and also how are you seeing retail demand currently so in terms of demand I just wanted yes that's another follow-up in terms of we are seeing the higher spreads right so given these higher spreads how are you seeing demand and how should we expect demand to evolve in the second half of this year. Thank you.

Camila, in terms of growth, what we are seeing is that commercial lending should be outpacing consumer lending. At some point, the consumer growth is slightly below inflation and commercial lending is low inflation levels. And we expect that this will continue at least in the next two quarters I mean the sectors but we are the ones that are the winners within this economic model which are basically mining, oil, gas, agribusiness. We expect to see some pickup maybe in construction in the next couple of workers, consumption sectors, auto models, economic models, big demand coming from that. So that is the idea and within your high level of the margins, I think that something to keep an eye on also is that when you look at the net interest margin, we are including interest rates there, but also income coming from the BOT portfolio on FX. So at some point, if you want to dig in that number, you will see at some point that intermediation rates or have income from BOT and on FX compensating that decline on the intermediation spread, causing some stability in the net.

Yeah, that's real clear. Thank you very much. Welcome.

Our next question comes from Pedro Offenheimen with Latin Securities.

Hello, Juan, Jorge, Nicolas. Thank you for taking the call. I wanted to ask, when you look at the MPLs and loan trends, are you seeing any meaningful difference in credit behavior between the interior of the country and the city or province of Buenos Aires, either in terms of paid demand or delinquency trends. I think that's what you look into our numbers.

Thank you, Jorge.

The next question comes from Federico Cavilli with EDCAP.

Hello, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I want to ask regarding your restructuring plan if we should expect these expenses to continue in the 7th half of the year and in 2027 and you guided ROE in 12% for the year, how these expenses will impact ROE and what's your reported ROE guidance for the year?

The number and lower number of branches, including the adjusted ROE that we are

The next question comes from Chito Labarta with Goodman Sachs. loans?

Are you just writing off these loans? Are you able to work with some of these consumers? Just to think about your ability to accelerate consumer loan growth, maybe going into next year, just given where the economy is and where the health of the consumer is. If you can, any color on that would be very helpful.

Thank you. How are you? I think that the consumption sentiment for the movement is a bit sluggish. We think that going forward, if we see inflation cooling down, that will be the main driver to see the real wages recovery, and at some point we could see 20% some recovery on consumption demand. For the rest of the year, again, we are seeing these loans may be growing in similar levels than inflation. We are not seeing that peak-up in 2026, at least on these consumer loans.

The only thing that I would add, Jorge, is, I understand a lot of your question, is that In the context of the wages start to improve and lending from consumers starts to increase, what we are doing internally is recycling better quality even in this more restrictive scenario for consumers. for personal loans for example is already originated from vintages which is when we introduced the first our credit policy and became more stringent so my point is the improvement in NPLs at this point not only depends on the external macroeconomic conditions to improve, but also depends on our own actions, and that's why we are confident, as Cork explained before, that we are stabilizing the DMPLs. We see the month-by-month performance from May to June, and already June to July, and that will continue going forward, because we already are seeing these new vintages with much better quality starting to impact the books and that is consumer purchasing power.

Thank you very much.

The next question comes from Lisandro Bovelas with 1618. Sir, you can open a microphone. Yes, can you hear me?

Okay, congratulations on the results and well we saw a one percent decrease in deposits and a sharply lowering loan guidance so can you provide a printer regarding uh deposits guidance for the full year is it updated thank you area and basically very perfect the next question comes from Ignacio Znichowski with

Inverse Chief in Bolsa hi good evening thank you for taking my questions the first question is regarding stage three loans asset quality particular do you have some kind of system-wide figures to compare that 4.1 that you reported in the second quarter and the next question is regarding the excess capital and these probably long-term attractive valuation that banks are trading if you see any potential acquisition at this moment or in the following month thank you very much In terms of your second question, it constantly mentioned that it's going to be used for M&A, but also for...

The next question comes from text with Carlos Gómez with HSBC. Could you explain the reasons for the increase in risk-weighted assets in the quarter, in particular in operational risks? Is your methodology now different from those of the other banks? And under the new models, what is the level of capital you consider adequate and how much surplus that you can invest or return to shareholders? The other question from him is how much longer do you expect to continue your restructuring Is your footprint 400 bay sheets now adequate? Thank you. Next question comes from Agustina Isidro with PBVA AM. Which is the loans book breakdown in terms of interest rates fixed versus floating and materially?

The next question comes from a private investor called Stefan Svigliano.

How do you see the further development of your commercial leading as you show some pick-up in the current quarter? Also, if you may, do you plan to deploy some capital for share buy banks as the share price has suffered lately and is getting close to a level where to do some buy banks in last October? Thanks. The next question comes from Adriano Mariani with Seagull Capital LLP. Hello Jorge, can you touch quickly on the capital consumption during the quarter? Obviously 28% still very high but interesting how that feels so much with with lackluster growth, even after dividend impact. There are no more questions at this time. This concludes the questions and answers section. I will now turn over to Mr. Nicolas Torres for final considerations. This concludes today's presentation, you may now disconnect.