Bp PLC Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call

Welcome, everyone, to BP's Third Quarter 2025 Results Call, which today we're hosting in Abu Dhabi. We'll be focusing today's call on the third quarter results and the contents of the video that I hope many of you will have seen by now. But before we move to Q&A, let me hand over to Murray for a few brief opening remarks. Murray?

Thanks, Craig, and thanks, everyone, for joining the call today. We're now three quarters into our 12-quarter plan and have delivered another strong quarter of operational performance and strategic progress. Earnings and cash flow generation was good with underlying pretax earnings of $5.3 billion and underlying net income of $2.2 billion. And with $7.8 billion of operating cash flow delivered this quarter, we are making good progress in delivering on our growth target for adjusted free cash flow growth of 20% CAGR over '25 to '27. Our operations teams are doing a great job in running the assets well with upstream production increasing by around 3% quarter-on-quarter, supported by upstream plant reliability at around 97%, leading to upgraded full-year underlying production guidance and refining availability also close to 97%, the best quarter in 20 years for the current portfolio. Looking ahead, we're also making strong strategic progress. We've started up six new oil and gas major projects in 2025, four of which were ahead of schedule. And we've had 12 exploration discoveries so far this year, including Bumerangue in Brazil, where the latest analysis and results gives us even further confidence. This performance is also showing up in the downstream as well. Underlying earnings in the first nine months were around 40% higher than the same period in 2024. In customers, we delivered our highest third quarter on record, and refining captured a better margin environment. We're making good progress on derisking our $20 billion divestment proceeds target, today upgrading our proceeds guidance underpinned by proceeds completed and announced this year that are expected to be around $5 billion. We're staying disciplined with our capital investment, with organic CapEx on track to be below $14 billion. And we remain confident in the momentum we are building in support of the delivery of the cost and net debt targets we have laid out. In summary, while there remains a lot of volatility, we are staying focused on what we control, underpinned by a laser-like focus on performance across the company. We have world-class assets and capability with operations delivering strongly. We have a deep resource base and are building high-quality options for growth in the future, the focus of our ongoing portfolio review. We're continuing our momentum to drive down costs. We're making good progress in growing cash flow and returns and our plans to strengthen the balance sheet. And of course, we have more to do. All of this is in service of growing shareholder value and returns. With that, I'll hand over to Craig to take us through the Q&A.

I think we'll start with the first question from Al Syme at Citi.

Murray, I got a question on Bumerangue. I'm really intrigued by the decision rather to publish the map on Slide 9. Clearly, there's a lot of market interest in the discovery, but at the same time, it's quite early days to be publishing a map. Can you talk about the confidence in that geological map based on the data you've got? And I'm also intrigued to know whether that sort of image looks any different to the predrill assessment that you had in the field.

Yes. Great, Al. Thanks very much. Yes, we're feeling pretty good about Bumerangue right now. As we disclosed recently, a 1,000-meter column, 100 meters at the bottom of oil and 900 meters of rich gas condensate. We've evaluated about two-thirds of the samples in the labs, and we continue to evaluate them. The map we've produced is off the predrill seismic. There's a lot of technology that's changed over time, and the pre-drill and post-drill are pretty close to each other. The team was able to image the top and bottom of the reservoir within a couple of feet based on the quality of the seismic we had. So we're feeling pretty good about it. It's a pretty good aerial view of it, at least 300 square kilometers, at least 1,000 meters of column height, and we continue with the lab sampling. We will update the market in due course once we understand the gas oil ratios fully and once we understand the volumes in place. And we've secured a rig to drill the next appraisal well and do a flow test on it as well, which we expect to happen once the equipment is available near the end of next year. So good news on Bumerangue. Thanks for the question.

We'll take the next question from Alejandro at Santander.

The question is about Castrol, the process, the strategic review of this asset. If you can give us some color about how the process is going.

Great. Thanks, Alejandro. I'll take that one again. First, just a small note of congratulations to Emma and Michelle, who run the business. It's nine quarters in a row of increases in earnings, very strong performance out of that business, and it's going very well. It's a commercial process, so I won't talk much about it other than to say there's strong interest. We are moving at pace, and we'll update you in due course. You'll remember that any proceeds that come from the strategic review will be dedicated to the balance sheet. But strong interest. We're moving at pace, and we'll update the market when we have something to say to the market directly about it.

We're going to take the next question from Irene Himona at Bernstein.

Congratulations on the numbers. Murray, can you give us an indication of an approximate timing for making concrete announcements to the market on the further portfolio simplification and restructuring, which you referred to in your comments, please?

Great. Thanks, Irene. Thanks for your kind words. On the portfolio review, Albert New Chair is on board now. We're starting to work with him on thinking about the portfolio. Of course, this comes about because we've had such tremendous success inside exploration. When we set out our plans in February, we didn't imagine that we'd have 12 exploration discoveries in a year. We certainly didn't imagine we'd have a discovery like Brazil as well. So that's all good news. We, of course, as a corporation, are very focused on making sure that we drive for value and returns and allocating capital to the highest quality opportunities. And that's what we're commencing now. We plan to update the market as we go along. So if you think about what happened in the third quarter, you saw that we made a sanction decision on Tiber in the Gulf of America, which we're very happy with. You saw that we decided to divest the Culzean field in the North Sea. We feel that it would have more value in other people's hands. And you saw that we stopped the Rotterdam biofuels refinery. It just didn't compete on a returns basis in our portfolio. So we'll update as we go along, Irene, and you should expect us just to update you as we go along through time and the decisions that we make. Thanks for your question, Irene.

We're going to take the next question from Lydia Rainforth at Barclays.

Can I return to Bumerangue? I'm hearing that it might not be 300 square kilometers, and you may only be able to access half of that regarding the CO2 content. There's a lot of skepticism around this. To take a step back based on your earlier response, Murray, the focus on commerciality was a significant point you wanted to convey in your update last week. Additionally, shifting to a different topic concerning AI and cost management, we've seen numerous examples in APAC related to agentic AI. Can you elaborate on the deployment of AI within BP? You've mentioned a desire to reduce complexity and enhance simplicity. Could you outline your progress on that journey?

Yes. Thanks, Lydia. Just on Bumerangue, I think the principal thing to focus on is that there's an awful lot of oil and condensate in the column. It's a large column. We've updated it from 500 meters to 1,000 meters based on the logs and the strong response we've got inside the logs and the samples. We do have the 100 meters of oil. We do have the 900 meters of rich gas condensate. That makes the CO2 manageable, although you might need a little bit more money for metallurgy. Obviously, you're going to get an awful lot better flow with CO2 in an oil condensate column. So we feel comfortable. We continue to think of it as the largest discovery in 25 years. We've obviously secured a rig to go appraise it and test it, and we feel that we're increasing the quality of this with the results that we're seeing out of the lab moving forward. And we'll, of course, update you on gas oil ratios and volumes when we're ready with it, Lydia. I think on AI, I do think we're making decent progress. A couple of quarters ago, I had Emeka talking to the sell side about what we're doing in AI. And all of you know that we've partnered with Palantir more than a decade ago inside the upstream to really get going on structuring our data and experimenting first with linear programming and then moving into AI more recently as that technology has emerged. I think the first thing to say is we feel well progressed on the data foundations, which is critical to making AI work. We've said that we'll have a unified data platform, not just across the upstream, but across the downstream, across trading, across finance, where we're working with Palantir and Databricks, we'll have an entire unified data structure sometime around the middle of next year that then allows us to use AI and the LLMs against all the data we have. That's quite exciting that we'll be in that position. It's all cloud-based, so accessible everywhere. And I think that will make us distinctive for having that type of data structure on topology. The actual examples of AI that we've got going around the company, I feel good about as well. Last quarter, I talked to you about kit detection, where the teams have worked with the LLMs to be able to predict kits ahead of meeting them while drilling in wells like far south in the Gulf of America, and we're at about 98% detection on kits. As well, you saw in these results, production is high. We've upgraded our production guidance for the year. Why? Because we're at nearly 97% availability in the upstream. That's the AI helping us predict faults before they occur, repair them before they occur along with all the investment in the hydrocarbon kit we've done. That 97% is a record across since merger time. So outstanding result. And we're also seeing that inside the wells. Wells are failing at a far less frequency than they were as the AI helps us manage pressure depletion inside our well stock. Another great example is well planning. The AI is enabling us to knock down well planning by 90% as it catalogs all the data, provide suggestions to the experts, and that's significantly increasing the speed with which we can plan wells, not only safely, but more efficiently. And then it's not just contained to the upstream. We're working very hard with Palantir and Databricks to work our way through refining in a few of our refineries. And in the customers business, there's an interesting example of an AI agent that's helping us in our service stations in Germany. We've trialed it with 20 service stations in Germany. It's been designed to help us manage our stock levels there to make sure that food isn't wasted, that we follow customer preferences for what they like to purchase and what they don't like to purchase. And that after three months in those 20 locations, they've knocked down waste by 45%. So we can see tremendous examples of improved uptime, improved performance, better capital efficiency through AI. And we're very excited about the opportunity this has as our data foundations get firmly in place. Thanks for the question, Lydia.

We're going to move to the U.S. to take the next question from Doug Leggate at Wolfe.

Murray, I guess I've got a couple of parts to this related to your production guidance long term. You're already over 2.3. BPX is knocking it out of the park, frankly, versus its more than 600 end-of-decade kind of guidance. And now you've got multiple discoveries and potentially an early production system from Bumerangue. So my question is, how do you see the risk to your production guidance? And maybe a kind of part B to that, would Bumerangue early production system be included in the CapEx guidance that you've given us over the current plan as well?

Yes. Thanks, Doug. I'll hesitate to give a ton of guidance forward. We've set out our plans to 2027 as principal guidance, and then we gave an indicator of volumes at the end of the decade as well. I think it's probably premature until we work our way through more of the portfolio review to understand where we'll be headed. We do have choices on short-term versus long-term. So of course, we can pivot more capital into BPX and drive up production near term or we can pivot more to things like the Paleogene and Brazil to drive longer-term resource production. I think if I step back from it, I think the thing I'd say is that I feel we now have the potential to grow long-term organic oil volumes for long duration. And I'm not sure I've been able to say that over the past 25 years with BP that we've been in a resource position like that. It's a nice problem to have. And what we're tightly focused on is staying within our capital frame and deciding what the right thing is to do to grow shareholder returns and value on behalf of the shareholders. So I think where I'd wrap that question is I'm very pleased to have been able to improve the guidance for 2025 after only three quarters, tremendous performance from the teams, as I said earlier. We'll update you on 2026 in February with what our viewpoint is of production then. And I would say we have more potential to grow, especially in oil now. And I feel we're in a better place than we've been in my career with BP, which is a nice thing to have. I hope that helps.

We'll take the next question from Lucas Herrmann at BNP.

I have a couple of questions for you, starting with BPX, Murray. I'm looking to understand the CapEx profile better. I appreciate the strong growth, but it seems like the rig count has stabilized. I always thought that as the processing facilities were completed, we would see a reduction in spending, but that doesn’t appear to be happening. Could you provide some clarity on these developments? Also, for Kate, could you explain the buy-in you have arranged with Legal & General? Why did you stop at this point, and should we anticipate further sales or an increase in Legal & General’s stake in the U.K. fund in the future?

Thanks, Lucas. I'll let Kate talk, and then I'll come back on BPX.

Yes. Lucas, thanks for the question. So yes, I mean, it's been a conversation inside the Pension Trustee Board for a while in terms of derisking. You can see a number of other companies have stepped into this in similar ways, some to a bigger degree than we have. I think the transaction that's been executed is a good one to date. But of course, it's not our decision as a sponsor as a company. It rests fully with the Pension Trustee Board. And I think they will continue to evaluate how they feel with regard to further derisking as we go through the coming months. But I have nothing further to be able to say in terms of guidance on that at the moment, Lucas.

Thank you, Kate. Regarding BPX, we anticipate an annual investment of about $2.5 billion. There's flexibility to adjust this amount as needed. This year, we plan to allocate around $2.5 billion to BPX and expect to maintain this investment for the next few years, aiming for over 650 kbd by 2030. Our team has achieved remarkable productivity improvements, with a 30% increase in completions and a 15% rise in drilling over the past year. Currently, we rank in the top quartile for drilling efficiency across our operational basins and on NPV per dollar spent, which are impressive benchmarks. Additionally, our team has set a record in the Haynesville with a 4-mile lateral well now producing 80 million standard cubic feet a day. Looking ahead, we plan to continue drilling in the oil windows, which will drive significant year-on-year liquid growth, particularly as we expand in the Permian and enhance our operations in the Eagle Ford through various techniques. In terms of natural gas, we are operating eight rigs and will discuss the possibility of increasing this to nine as we approach 2026. Productivity has been so effective that we have drilled 13 wells at no additional cost compared to our plans. You can expect our investment to remain at $2.5 billion until we provide further updates. We are focusing more on drilling than on infrastructure as we complete the major infrastructure project. We see strong growth potential for BPX moving forward and are committed to supporting U.S. production growth. Thank you, Lucas.

We're going to take the next question from Chris Kuplent at Bank of America.

Trying to stick to the one-question rule, but a wider one. Beyond Castrol, Murray, could you maybe let us know where you're at on Gelsenkirchen, on Lightsource? And if I may just ask, you've done the TANAP stake disposal now in BPX. How many of those midstream opportunities do you still see when you look across your portfolio for potentially more noncontrolling interest stakes?

Yes. Great, Chris. Thanks very much. We laid out a program of $20 billion. Pleased to report that we've announced $5 billion now. I think $1.7 billion of proceeds in the door case and obviously, another $3.5 billion to come in the door to help the balance sheet as we complete these transactions as we get to completion and approval. I think what I would say is there's a strong interest in Castrol, and we continue to move forward with that. We'll update you. Same for Gelsenkirchen, strong interest, and we'll update you. And on Lightsource, we started strategic conversations with counterparts, and we're at an earlier stage on that than we are on both Gelsenkirchen and Castrol. So you should expect something that takes a bit longer to disclose on Lightsource. But we're making strong progress on all three of those things. And we'll update you as the commercial processes, I don't want to say much more than that. We'll update you when we have news to tell you. I think on the infrastructure stuff, Kate, why don't you take that, please?

Yes, Chris. So as we look out in terms of the delivery of the rest of the $20 billion program, we don't see any other significant infrastructure deals in the pipeline. So in terms of how you should think about NCI, the way I would suggest you hold it is it's not going to increase beyond this. And actually, next year, as we redeem the hybrid that we prefinanced, there's about $1.4 billion left of the 2026 maturity that we prefinanced, if you remember, then that will start to bring NCI down. And then should we choose to take advantage of the 25% of the hybrid stack that we could taper under the S&P rules, should we choose to step into that space, then you'd see NCI reduce further. So the way I would suggest you hold it is it's where it is and from here, it will go down.

We're going to go back to the U.S. taking the next question from Ryan Todd at Piper Sandler.

Bumerangue is rightfully getting the bulk of the attention right now, but you've had quite a bit of success across the drill bit across the portfolio. Can you talk about what are some of the other discoveries or opportunities this year that have been particularly exciting and maybe in particular, in Namibia, what you've seen so far, how it's comparing to expectations and the timeline of next steps?

Thank you, Ryan. Currently, we have accomplished 12 out of 14 discoveries this year, which is remarkable for our exploration efforts. This has been one of the best years in our history. Notably, the integration of seismic technology with advanced chips from companies like NVIDIA and the rise of AI has significantly improved our ability to explore regions like Egypt, Trinidad, and Brazil, allowing us to see below salt formations more effectively than ever. I recall reviewing seismic data from Egypt where distinct channels were visible. This technological advancement has played a crucial role in our successful exploration this year. While I can't guarantee that this will continue next year, it has certainly contributed to our achievements. In Trinidad, we have two promising discoveries suitable for development, and Egypt also presents two valuable opportunities. We've discussed Brazil's developments as well. Moving on to Namibia, we are thrilled about the progress made through our joint venture with Eni, Azule, where we have effectively made three discoveries. The third discovery, Volans, was identified in the third quarter, and we have a promising reservoir at Capricornus, which measures 38 meters and has excellent oil properties. Volans, which is 28 meters rich in gas condensate, is just 14 kilometers from Capricornus. Namibia appears to be a very promising area for us, and we are optimistic as we continue to test samples in the lab during the exploration phase with Rhino, the operator. The Namibian Energy Minister referred to it as the best block in the country. We look forward to further appraisals and updates from Rhino on the development of this block. Overall, it has been an excellent year for exploration, and we are proud of our teams for their accomplishments. Thank you, Ryan.

We'll stay in the U.S. and take the next question from Paul Cheng at Scotia.

Murray, I want to discuss exploration again. You had a great year. Additionally, with the potential of combining AI and seismic technology to improve visibility through rock, are there any processes or personnel changes that have contributed to this success? How repeatable are those methods? If you believe your success rate is improving, should you consider investing more in exploration to help replace your resources in the future?

Thanks, Paul. I guess there are a few things happening, first of all, inside exploration. We have a great experienced team who have been high graded over time, and they've built on the track record of their predecessors and built up a very good base of knowledge around the world. So we have great people with great deep knowledge, I would say, of the basins in which we operate. I think the second thing is technology is changing. The NVIDIA chips that we're now using inside our supercomputing are just incredibly fast and allow incredible iterations of theories. I'm kind of dumbing it down, all the geologists on the call, please forgive me for dumbing this down. But it enables much faster interpretation ideas, thinking about how one can think about the subsurface. And that, of course, is converged with wide as seismic, full waveform inversion algorithms. So you've got this real thing of very good, experienced people with incredible horsepower in compute, much better than anything in history, along with dramatic technology steps from the service providers. And then I think the magic we have right now is the team is very engaged on the digital side and very engaged with using the technology and the AI to test new theories and see what else is there. So that's a little bit about the magic. Is it repeatable? I'm never going to say that with exploration. My father was a geologist, and I know you curse yourself if you say that. So I don't think I'd necessarily bank on that. But we've certainly had a good year. We have some very good prospects next year. And as far as increasing capital in the space, the lesson for life from us is always quality through choice. Create as many opportunities you can, high grade down to the very best ones, and that gives you a higher chance of success than you otherwise would. So that, to me, is what's so important is you keep quality through choice. I think we're spending around $600 million a year right now on exploration. I would not want to push that up despite the success because it forces quality. So thanks for the question. Congrats to the explorers for a great year, and we just need to remain capitally disciplined and make sure that we're pursuing only the very best opportunities. Thanks, Paul.

Thank you, Paul. We will go to Michele at Goldman Sachs next.

Congratulations again on the strong delivery this quarter. I wanted to come back to the CapEx budget. So you reiterated the guidance for this year, and you've got a relatively wide range for '26, '27 of 13% to 15%. I was wondering, in an uncertain macro environment, if you were forced or decided to go to the low end of that range, where would you find the levers of flexibility to lower the budget effectively from the 14.5% of this year? I find it's an interesting time to start to think about some of those moving parts.

Kate, why don't you take that one?

We have a solid range to work with for the next few years, providing us with ample room to adapt to various price conditions. This year, we've projected around 14.5%, but if we exclude the BP Bioenergy and organic factors, the organic figure is actually below 14%. If prices decline, we have several options to adjust to the lower end of our range. We'll remain cautious with our spending, especially if prices are favorable and we consider moving toward the higher end of that range. Maintaining strict discipline around our capital is essential, as it encourages valuable discussions about the returns and value of each investment we make. Our disciplined approach to capital investment is crucial as we aim to improve our operating cash flow and select the best available opportunities. Currently, we have one of the richest sources of opportunities we've seen in a long time, which is a positive situation. I'm confident in our range and flexibility, and we've previously discussed our strategy if we need to taper down toward the lower end. We have options to reduce our commitments in onshore drilling and exploration depending on our rig utilization over the coming year, but overall, we have flexibility within the 13 to 15 percent range.

We're going to take the next question from Henry Tarr at Berenberg.

I wanted to ask about Iraq. Can you give us any more details on the sort of economics for BP of the contract in Kirkuk? And then obviously, others have entered into the country and there's a sort of large program planned. How material from a macro perspective, do you think the overall impact could be for production growth in Iraq if we look out sort of three to five years?

Thanks, Henry. I need to be cautious regarding the economics as the nation hasn't released the production sharing agreement yet. Until then, it's challenging for me to provide specific details due to existing restrictions. However, I can share some updates since our last conversation. We have conducted the initial production test and reached an agreement with the nation, resulting in a production of 328 kbd of black oil. There are currently 45 people working on well-related tasks in Kirkuk, including acid jobs and compressor rewheels, and we're establishing procurement contracts, among other things. We're eager to assist the nation in gradually increasing production from that field. Regarding the commercial terms, they are undoubtedly better than those offered in the first round. We are now in the eighth round, and each stage has improved incrementally, as per public information. This round includes opportunities for price increases and the ability to adjust gas prices, which was not an option in previous rounds. We also have exploration rights on the surrounding and deeper acreage, making this contract notably stronger than the Phase 1 terms of Rumaila, nearly two decades ago. That's about all I can disclose regarding the commercial terms of Kirkuk for now, but we are pleased with it, and when permitted, we will share more details with the market. As for Iraq's overall capacity, there is significant oil available. We've observed several new deals being finalized recently, and I believe that the world is in need of this oil. We anticipate strong oil demand moving forward and see that non-OPEC Plus production may be nearly exhausted by early next year, likely leading to flat or declining production elsewhere outside of OPEC Plus. Therefore, Iraq will play a crucial role in meeting the anticipated demand. However, I cannot discuss Iraq's production capacity in detail; that’s something the nation will need to address. I hope that provides some clarity, Henry.

We're going to take the next question from Kim Fustier at HSBC.

I wanted to ask about the Venture Global case. You've won the LNG arbitration case unlike one of your peers. Why do you think your case was successful? And when do you think you might receive the $1 billion of damages that you've asked for?

I'm not going to comment on any other cases as I'm not familiar with them, and it wouldn't be appropriate for me to do so. Regarding our case, we are very pleased with the result and would like to congratulate our lawyers and traders for their achievement. The next phase concerning damages is being organized with the arbitration panel, although a date has not been set yet. We will provide an update once that happens. It's important to note that the damages figure is not one that we recognize. Overall, we are pleased with the outcome and look forward to the next stage, and I congratulate the team on this result.

We're going to go to Josh Stone at UBS, please.

I have a question for Kate about the balance sheet. I'm interested in how much focus you're placing on your gearing ratio, whether calculated as net debt to capital or equity. The reason I ask is that as you receive more cash from asset sales, you will be effectively reducing parts of BP, and your asset base will decrease, particularly factoring in the implications of impairments. Could you discuss your thoughts on these ratios? I understand you have a target for absolute net debt, but I believe the gearing ratio is important as well. Some comments on that would be appreciated.

Yes. Josh, thank you for the question. Let me step through how we think about our balance sheet because I think if you just bear with me, and I'll take you through my thinking because I think it's quite important context. So financial resilience is really important to us as an organization as we move forward. It allows us to execute on the opportunities that we have as they present themselves. And it's comprised of a number of things. And the first thing that everyone can measure us against is net debt, and we've now put a target against a material reduction in net debt by the end of 2027, and we've put a $14 billion to $18 billion, which we will deliver. If you think about where we stand today at '26, that would be a $10 billion reduction in terms of the net debt stack. But of course, I think if you remember some of the slides that I used to talk about balance sheet and financial resilience at the Capital Markets Day in February, I was trying to be pretty transparent that we understand our total liabilities and the drain on our operating cash flow. Those type of commitments is not just around debt. If I think about some of the other big components, we have over $1 billion a year going out on Deepwater Horizon. So another two of those will go before the end of 2027. So that's $2.2 billion. We've got a level of prefinancing of the '26 hybrid I referred to earlier, that's $1.4 billion. So even if we do nothing else, where we stand right now, our liability stack will reduce over the next two and a bit years by $13 billion to $14 billion. And that's how we think about it as opposed to contemplating gearing. We haven't got a gearing target. We've got a target on net debt. That's the first priority. That's what we will deliver. But I hope you can hear from my language that we think about the totality of our liabilities, and we're cognizant on the total cost of all of those.

We're going to take the next question from Jeff in TPH, please, back over in the U.S.

We were hoping to also ask about the structural cost improvements, which look to be progressing quite well, especially based on the supplement disclosure, the roughly $400 million improvement quarter-on-quarter there. But I'll actually gear my loan question here to follow up on BPX, if you could dig into basin-specific plans a bit more and maybe give us a sense for how you plan to pace activity adds in the Haynesville specifically over the next 12 to 18 months or so and maybe how the Eagle Ford may play a role, if at all, as part of that.

Thanks, Jeff, for your kind words about our cost progress. Kate is available for any questions on that topic. Regarding BPX, we plan to maintain our infrastructure in the Permian, operating two to three rigs to keep it fully utilized. In the Eagle Ford, we're excited about the downspacing within the oil window of the Blackhawk and our refrac programs. The new downspacing wells are outperforming the original wells due to significant advancements in fracking technology over the past decade. Similarly, we're observing much higher production from the refracs compared to the original wells drilled by Petrohawk a decade ago. We will continue to focus on these areas and enhance the liquid production over time. In the gas segment, we have the associated gas from the Permian, along with strong positions in Hawkville and Haynesville. In the Haynesville, we're following the infrastructure development closely. Our teams are excelling in capital efficiency, consistently achieving record production capacity from wells, now reaching 80 million a day on the latest four-mile horizontal drilling. Our trading and marketing organization is actively establishing off-take points, and we'll continue to grow the Haynesville in alignment with infrastructure. We're assessing whether to maintain two or three rigs as we approach 2026, considering if we should stick with eight rigs or increase to nine in the gas window. Productivity improvements have been significant, allowing us to drill 13 additional wells essentially at no extra cost this year compared to our original plans. Expect about 2.5 rigs ongoing until we provide further guidance, focusing on more drilling relative to infrastructure as we wrap up the major infrastructure projects. We're optimistic about strong growth in BPX moving forward and committed to supporting U.S. production growth. Thank you, Jeff.

We're going to go to Alice at Morgan Stanley. Alice, I know you're deputizing for Martijn, who's also here in Abu Dhabi. Over to you, Alice.

I have a question about downstream. So you printed a pretty strong results sequentially, but also with a number of moving parts. So of course, there was the successful delivery of the cost reductions, but also supportive macro for refining, and then on the other hand, weak trading. So could you please give some insight into the contribution of each of those elements? And then on balance, what could we expect the run rate to look like?

Kate, over to you.

Yes. Thank you. Alice, let me try and break out the components of the improvement in the downstream. I would say it's been a nine-month period of really good performance across pretty much all of the business, actually, in terms of the way that we've seen the organic improvement coming through, firstly, on the customer side, a number of things. We've seen improvements, I would say, in almost every area of the customer side, whether it's aviation, Castrol is up 21%, I think now year-on-year for the nine months. We've got stronger performance coming through the tight integration that we've got between fuels and midstream. That's something we've been working really hard on that's coming through. And we've got really good cost reductions. So structural cost reductions delivered for the nine months so far inside customers is about $0.5 billion. And then the other component of the improvement in the downstream operating cash flow from customers is around the BP Bioenergy. So as you recall, we consolidated that now. So you're seeing an improvement in terms of the consolidated earnings versus just the prior period of about $300 million. And then if I look at the product side of it, the refining portfolio is delivering superbly now. We've got refining availability year-to-date at 96.4%. That compares to the 96% that we set ourselves as a target back in February. That's a result of conscious investment and systematic improvement in the maintenance and integrity of our kit. And as a consequence, it's running well. And as the refining margin improves, as it has done in the last quarter, we're able to capture the maximum of that. I would also say that refining has done pretty well on their business improvement program as well in terms of reducing their costs. They've reduced their cost by about $200 million further in the nine months. And then finally, perhaps on trading. Trading had a weaker quarter this quarter, but they had a very strong quarter in Q2 compared to others. We were very pleased with that. But as I look at the nine months year-to-date, trading is pretty much in line with where it was last year. So very comfortable with where trading is. So that's quite a long answer. Hopefully, that's broken it down to enough detail for you to be able to follow the various component parts, Alice.

We're going to take the next question from Peter Low at Rothschild Redburn.

Maybe one just on the Gulf of America. Now that you've taken FID on the Tiber-Guadalupe project, does that open the door to a potential farm down of your Paleogene positions? Or what's your current thinking on the optimum time to do that kind of within the development of those assets?

Yes, thanks, Peter. I'm very pleased to announce the sanctioning of Tiber, which is our second sanction in the Paleogene, following Kaskida last year. Tiber is anticipated to produce 280 kbd, and we own it entirely, which offers significant resource recovery potential. I commend our project team for managing to reduce the development cost of Tiber by $3 a barrel by utilizing our past experience with Kaskida. We are engaged in discussions regarding the potential farm down in the Paleogene, with a focus on maximizing value for our shareholders. We remain committed to ensuring that any actions we take are beneficial and additive. We'll provide updates as things progress. Thank you for the question, Peter.

Thanks, Peter. We'll turn to Mark Wilson at Jefferies.

I will bring it back to Bumerangue. Again, still got a lot of data you mentioned and that appraisal will take a flow test. The release a few days ago spoke to an early production system. It sounds to me like a flow test there would have to be for a prolonged period of time to test multiple areas of a large column and fully understand the CO2 mix. That also sounds quite costly within a $600 million exploration budget if that includes appraisal. So first, I'd like to ask if I'm visualizing that work scope correct for, say, 2027 in terms of what flow testing is needed? And would you appraise that at 100%? Or would we expect overall exploration cost to go higher to accommodate the Bumerangue appraisal?

It's a good reservoir, and we believe the flow test from the second appraisal well will provide a strong indication of the reservoir's overall performance. While there is always the possibility of surprises, the seismic data and log readings suggest strong potential. We are planning to conduct this around the fourth quarter of 2026 or early 2027, and we have a team working on early production strategies, which will largely depend on the flow test results. The flow test will mainly focus on well productivity and the number of wells needed for efficient resource extraction. We've already completed sampling from the initial appraisal well, so our current priority is determining how many wells will be required over time. As for partnering, we will bring in a partner after completing the appraisal well and flow test, as that will provide us with more reliable data to reduce risk. At this point, I am not providing a specific exploration budget, but we estimate around $500 million to $600 million for exploration, which includes appraisal efforts. We are currently drilling about 15 wells a year and will update you as we progress into 2026 and 2027. We will remain within the $13 billion to $15 billion capital framework mentioned earlier. I hope this clarifies things for you.

We're going to go to Bertrand at Kepler next, please.

Yes. Coming back on the Venture Global arbitration. Murray, you've just mentioned that the $1 billion plus in damages that were in the press was not your numbers. Can you elaborate a bit? Or are you seeking a higher number?

Thank you for the question, Bertrand. The number you referenced comes from a press release by Venture Global. We haven't shared our perspective on this with the public markets. Since this is a commercial matter, I can't disclose any information as it may affect the arbitration process, and I have to be cautious. That figure is theirs, not ours. In time, we will submit our claims to the arbitration panel, and once they reach a decision, they may make their findings public. However, I need to be careful in handling this situation and cannot discuss any commercial details.

We're going to move to the U.S. again, Jason Gabelman at TD Cowen.

I wanted to ask just on the equity affiliate portion, given you have quite a few of them at this point. And as you think about what the overall net contribution of those affiliates to your cash flow is, I'm wondering if that's changed at all given the JERA Nex BP joint venture and Beacon Wind within that joint venture being canceled and perhaps less cash infusions into that joint venture, but conversely, the success at Azule with the Namibia explorations resulting in perhaps less cash distributions from that entity in the near term? And just how that kind of rolls up into your overall views on distributions moving forward.

Yes, I'll address that. Regarding JERA Nex, we see it as a way to create future opportunities with minimal capital investment. JERA Nex will determine the projects they pursue and set their own benchmarks. From our standpoint, we expect it to be capital-light, and any necessary investments would need to compete with other capital requirements in our portfolio, which presents a significant challenge. On the other hand, Azule represents a different type of joint venture. It has performed well for us, generating approximately $7 billion in total distributions since its inception. It is now self-funded, has established a PXF, and issued its first external bonds. We believe it can finance its growth independently, so we don’t anticipate it will be a burden on our capital. However, if it chooses to reinvest its cash flow in opportunities like Namibia, we might see a slight decrease in the dividends we receive from it, but it's too soon to provide specific details on that.

Yes. And if I just added a few things on Azule, we don't often talk about it, but it's had tremendous success, Jason. Agogo came online earlier this year, eight months ahead of schedule. So congratulations to the team for doing that. MGC is the next major project that's going to come online shortly. And they, of course, have the exploration discovery near the LNG plant of TCF and a couple of hundred million barrels of associated condensate. So in Angola, it's doing fantastic. I was down there recently to celebrate the Agogo start-up and Gordon was offshore on it. So just a tremendous joint venture with Eni that's doing very, very well for us, and we're very pleased to have expanded that into Namibia and the success we're seeing in Namibia. So I hope that helps, Jason.

I think we are probably at the final question given time. We're going to take that from Maurizio Carulli at Quilter Cheviot.

Well done for the positive results. Can I have a bit more color on the 20% increase in Castrol earnings and what has driven it? And also, if I may squeeze in an additional question. Is it possible to have more detail on your recent strategic investment in the electronic cooling solutions?

This is a result of the intentional progress that Michelle has been implementing for what I believe is the ninth consecutive quarter of improvement. Their strategy focuses on moving onward and upward, with a clear aim to enhance cost competitiveness while increasing volumes, which they have successfully achieved across nearly all areas of the business over the past few years. Additionally, the improved performance in Castrol is partly due to the changes in base oil and additives, which peaked post-COVID but have since decreased slightly. This also contributes positively to our results. Overall, the focus is on deliberately increasing volumes and reducing costs to enhance operating cash flow within the organization, and things are progressing very well. Would you like to discuss the liquid aspect?

Yes. The liquid cooling for data centers presents an interesting opportunity. They have secured a couple of deals with partners, but it's commercially sensitive so I can't disclose the names, and they are currently in trial with a few companies. This represents a long-term growth potential for the business that looks promising. It's a competitive field, and we are hopeful for quicker development moving forward. Thank you for the question, Maurizio. It's nice to hear from you.

We are going to finish promptly on the hour. Irene, Chris, I know you are still pulling. Maybe please follow up with the IR team in London. Happy to do so. A big thanks on behalf of Murray, Kate, myself, thank you for listening. Thank you for the continued interest in BP's results today, and we'll stop the call there. Thank you again.