Caledonia Mining Corp Plc Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Q3 2025 results presentation for Caledonia Mining. Today, we're joined by Mark Learmonth, who's the CEO, and he's going to introduce the webinar and start his presentation. Mark, over to you.

Thank you. Thank you very much, Julie. Should we open the slide deck? Let's move on to the forward-looking statement and disclaimer page. Next page, there you go. And then the presenting team. So yes, I'm Mark Learmonth, Caledonia's Chief Executive; joined by Ross Jerrard, the CFO, who will run us through the financial numbers. James Mufara, the Chief Operating Officer, will talk to us about operations. Victor will say a few words about Bilboes, and Craig Harvey will talk to us about some of our exploration initiatives. Can we just move to the next page? Okay. The first thing I'll point out is that, as you probably noticed, we no longer publish the standard sort of management discussion and analysis and the detailed financial statements. So quarters 1 and quarter 3 will produce what we've done this morning, which is a truncated version, but I think that's more than adequate for conveying the substance of what we're doing. But as we get into the presentation, first, we must recognize that we had a fatality during the quarter, and we extend our condolences to the family and the colleagues of the man who tragically lost his life. James will talk to us more about what we've done in the aftermath of that to comprehensively review our safety procedures and practices, and what we're doing to strengthen our risk management and workforce protection. So James will go into that in some more detail. It was a solid performance operationally. Production at Blanket was just over 19,000 ounces, and we sold just over 20,000 ounces. And that was clearly helped by the rising gold price. So the gold price is up 40% quarter-on-quarter, comparable quarter to this quarter to just over $3,400 an ounce, which drove a strong improvement in revenue and also profitability. So revenue was up 52% to $71 million and EBITDA was up 162% to $33 million. Ross will clearly provide more information on the financials. With respect to Bilboes, as we say in the RNS, we expect to give an update as to where we are and where we're going with that imminently. So Victor is on hand to say something. But frankly, until we've said something, there's not a great deal we can say at this stage. And then Craig will run us through the exploration programs at Blanket and Motapa, which we're advancing and showing very, very encouraging results. And then finally, I'll just remind you all that in addition to these results, we've this morning declared another quarterly dividend of $0.14 a share. So with that, can I hand over to James to run us through the operating results? James, over to you.

Thank you very much, Mark. Good day to everyone. It is with great sadness that I must report a loss of life incident that occurred at our Blanket mine this quarter. Tragically, despite significant improvements in our health and safety metrics, including reductions in lost time injuries and better underground environmental and ventilation conditions, we experienced this loss of life. The incident involved a gang leader who lost his life due to a premature detonation during secondary blasting. This process is essential for breaking larger rocks generated by primary blasting, allowing them to be transported to the surface. Following the accident, we initiated a thorough investigation to identify the root causes and reported our findings to the government, which also conducted its own investigation. That investigation is now complete, and we are implementing action plans to prevent any future occurrences of such tragic events. A key issue remains the higher risk appetite observed among our employees. As we move to the next slide, you will see consistent performance at Blanket mine, with delivery levels stabilizing between the third quarter of 2024 and now. This steady delivery reflects our commitment to maintaining both production and consistency. The improvement is driven by three main factors, among others. First, we have implemented a short interval control system in the mining and metallurgical areas that enhances production management. Second, our tonnage throughput has been consistent, as we can now utilize stockpiles more effectively. Third, improvements in development initiated at the end of last year are increasing flexibility by opening up more production areas underground. However, the graph displays an unfavorable drop in the grade line, correlating with the loss of life incident on September 22, during which we halted operations in high-grade areas for about 20 days. This incident also affected our recovery, as indicated by the dip in the recovery graph. The positive aspect is that our year-to-date recovery is still on track, and we anticipate a strong finish for the year. Looking at the next table, our mining metrics for the quarter were above plan, with healthy production throughput reflected in the tonnes broken, trimmed, and hoisted. Crucially, we achieved our development goals, which are essential for sustained production and will enhance flexibility and productivity. The only area not marked positively is the grade due to the temporary suspension of high-grade operations following the unfortunate fatality. Currently, the grade stands at 3.4 grams per tonne, but we remain on track to meet our increased guidance. The tonnes milled are approximately 7% ahead of our year-to-date run rate, and our tail grade remains very low at 0.2 grams per tonne, indicating high recovery rates within the plant. At the end of the quarter, we are about 3,000 ounces above our year-to-date projection, indicating that Blanket is on track to meet revised production targets. In the following graph, you can see that we are not only addressing current production needs but also securing future targets. Inventory generation has been positive this quarter, allowing us to achieve current production without exhausting our future capabilities. We've even added reserve ounces due to better production and development this quarter, which reflects a healthy state. In conclusion, I want to highlight our efforts in implementing new technologies aimed at improving productivity and managing increased costs associated with older operations. Now, I'll pass it over to Ross for the financial update. Thank you.

Thank you, James. So Ross, do you want to run us through the finance, please?

Thank you, Mark, and thank you, James. My pleasure. Good afternoon, everybody. It's my pleasure to run through the financial results. As James described, it's been a challenging quarter, but certainly well delivered. If we can turn to the next slide, a quick overview of our financial results and a summary. You'll see gold sold is up 9% to 20,000 ounces against gold produced of just over 19,000 ounces, marking a solid quarter. I will highlight that those gold produced ounces are the Blanket ounces. There were some 437 ounces generated from Bilboes, not accounted on this table just for calculating our mine costs, etc. A very solid set of numbers in terms of ounces produced and sold. Just dropping down below the first line, you'll see the on-mine costs, which were up 27% quarter-on-quarter. This increase was related to traditional elements such as electricity, labor, and consumables. The uptick was seen this quarter as, as James indicated, additional volumes needed processing to compensate for lower grades. Importantly, teams had to be shifted around due to unfortunate incidents, which also created extra costs. When comparing to the planned areas, several factors led to additional costs due to the lower grade, which came with higher costs. Over the quarter, our all-in sustaining costs rose significantly, up 40%, primarily due to the factors mentioned, but also heightened gold prices that impacted royalties, thus affecting our all-in sustaining costs. Overall, a really good result driven by the gold price of $3,434 an ounce, which greatly benefited operations and results we discuss. The profit and loss statement reveals another impressive quarterly revenue number of $71 million, thanks to good performance across ounces produced and favorable gold prices. The royalty number increased in line with revenues, and production costs were up, as mentioned, primarily due to additional volumes processed at a lower grade. Depreciation remained consistent for the quarter. I’m pleased to inform you we've continued to benefit from net foreign exchange efficiencies, owing to our access to the willing buyer, willing seller market. If you inspect the nine months column, you'll see we're just under $3 million compared to $10 million for the same period last year, a commendable improvement in delivery in our income statement. Corporate line items have increased due to higher equity share-based payments driven by share price as well as some one-off expenses tied to corporate team restructuring. The tax expense has risen due to excellent operational performance and the upswing in gold prices, including the solar sale factored in this number. Cash flow perspective shows robust inflow from operating activities at just under $14 million for the quarter, impacted by large negative working capital movements around $8 million, which were timing-related and regarded consumables and traditional working capital shifts in ounces, gold sales receivables, etc. Tax payments included a $2 million cash outflow, but importantly, we maintained capital expenditure on the growth track without readjusting forecasted spending. We've now got $18.5 million on fixed deposits, all sitting offshore in Jersey, leading to a favorable result year-to-date. We've made a total of $14.7 million in dividends year-to-date, including $6.6 million for NCIs and $8.1 million for Caledonia shareholders, comprising three quarterly dividends paid in nine months. As Mark mentioned, we've declared our customary quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share earlier today. We're positioned with $7.3 million in cash and equivalents at the quarter's end, and total liquidity exceeds $44 million, providing a robust opportunity for deploying funds against significant projects, which is very exciting.

Thank you, Ross. So Craig, can you just talk us through the exploration at Motapa and at Blanket, please?

Thanks, Mark. I can do that for you. So just very quickly, at Motapa, the budget for the year is just over 27,000 meters of drilling. At the end of Q3, we had completed just under 20,000 meters, approximately 71% to 72% complete, and we expect to finish the drilling campaign during Q4. I did mention last quarter that there were issues with laboratories in Zimbabwe, but that has been sorted, and we are catching up on assays. I anticipate a maiden resource declaration for Motapa, specifically Motapa North, during H1 of 2026. If we could go to the next slide, focusing on Motapa North, you can see the mineralized zones over a strike length of approximately 2,500 meters. It remains open to the Northeast, with some gaps between historic old pits that we still need to investigate. Motapa North's primary goal is to define sulfide mineral resources below the current pits down to a depth of about 200 meters. Once we complete the drilling campaign this year, it will take 1 to 2 months to receive assays in, and we plan to announce a maiden resource for Motapa North early next year. Now for some additional drilling, approximately 500 meters south of Motapa North, in a location referred to as Mpudzi. We are finalizing our drilling campaign here, having drilled about 1,000 meters on strike. There remains potential for another 1,000 meters to the Northeast, and we are focusing on the potential for oxides, while drilling deeper holes to understand the sulfide mineralization. This program will carry on into 2026, and results will be reported as they come in. Moving on to Blanket, we have both underground and surface exploration, with underground exploration drilling involving long-haul drilling typically 250 to 450 meters deep. The areas we are drilling include ARS, which is AR South, the Blanket Quartz Reef (BQR), and all of the Blanket orebodies. We currently drill below the 34-level, with many intersections around the 36-level mark. We expect to publish a set of drilling results for Blanket at the end of this year. On the northern side, we've drilled extensively around Lima and continue filling in the drilling below the 22 and 34 levels, ensuring that we capture orebody potential. Recently, Blanket initiated a surface exploration program involving 200-meter long trenches over a strike length of 600 meters, identifying a 50,000 square meters surface exploration area with nominal gold values. We've instituted a Reverse Circulation Drilling program spaced 25 by 25 meters, drilling to a depth of about 45 meters. The intent here is to identify potential ore sources amenable to heap leaching, providing Blanket mine access to low-cost surface ounces that do not require current plant capacity. My last point on Blanket exploration is noteworthy; unlike Bilboes, which has historical open pits, Blanket's lease area remains devoid of open pits, mainly due to the mine's historical operations transitioning underground very quickly. More exploration like this will be seen in the future. The current exploration program is expected to finish by late December, and we should have a full exploration report early Q1 of 2026. With that, I'd like to hand back to Mark. All done.

Thank you, Craig. At the outset, I had indicated that Victor would talk about Bilboes. But the fact of the matter is that we are about to provide a very detailed update on Bilboes imminently, and thus, there's nothing Victor can say other than just to repeat that word: imminently. So apologies for the mix-up. In terms of outlook, we remain on track to achieve the increased production guidance for 2025. Notwithstanding a few headwinds in Q3, we're about 3,000 ounces ahead of where we expected to be at the beginning of the year, which is good. Craig has given you a good sense of the very encouraging drilling taking place at Blanket, both at depth and at the surface. For Motapa, we're looking to convert the drilling into a maiden resource early next year to validate the acquisition of that asset. As mentioned, news on Bilboes' feasibility study is also imminent. We continue to focus on cost management to find ways to reduce costs, but we acknowledge that Blanket is now a fundamentally different mine than what it was five years ago, and we won't return to the past pricing levels of producing gold at $850 an ounce. So with that, we can open it up to questions.

Our first question comes from Nic Dinham.

I have several questions to tidy up some details here. On the mining side, there's a lot more broken ore registering than actually hoisted. Could we have an explanation for that? Also, from you, James, what are your immediately available ore reserves at the moment? I think you've got a sort of South African standard when you talk about that?

James, do you want to deal with those questions?

In this particular quarter, we broke more ore than we hoisted, but looking at the year overall, the differences are within the normal range of plus or minus 2%. The higher breakage this quarter was due to our hoisting constraints and stoppages linked to some tragic incidents. We expect this situation to improve in this quarter. As for our immediate available phase length, it remains low at about 2 to 3 months, and we aim to enhance that with further development for greater flexibility. Despite this, we are currently 5% above expectations for the year and are effectively managing our reserves. We anticipate that within the next 3 to 4 years, we can build up additional flexibility to reach a phase length of 3 to 6 months.

And here’s a follow-up question for you, Ross. What are you expecting from dividends from Blanket this year? Will that bring the horizon for the end of the facilitation loans any closer than Q1, which you spoke about last time? Obviously, things have materially improved.

Hello, Nic. Yes, absolutely. Those loans will be paid off by the end of the year or January at the latest. So certainly, earlier than originally anticipated for the end of Q1 next year. In terms of planning for the remainder of the year, we originally targeted a $50 million cash balance to be distributed and sitting in Jersey by year-end; I now think it's more likely between $40 million and $42 million; that’s the type of level for distributions. We distributed $45 million from Blanket during the quarter and continue to work towards building our offshore bank account up to that $40 million mark.

Sorry, Ross, if you can just explain again what the quantum of dividends Blanket will distribute over this year looks like? Is that the number you mentioned?

Yes, so far, we’ve distributed $45 million. By year-end, we should see an additional $15 million to $20 million in distributions, accounting for timings in terms of declarations and actual distribution up the chain. Thus, the total distribution will likely be around $60 million to $70 million.

My question is mainly for Mark. You've talked in the past about how your goal is to avoid further common shareholder dilution as you fund the growth of the business. With favorable gold prices in 2025, you're really starting to harvest some of the fruits of Blanket and the previous investments there. My question is, how much do you intend to retain cash for future development projects and potentially other acquisitions in Zimbabwe, as opposed to increasing dividends? And if common shares need to be issued again, would that raise your cost of capital, as has happened post dividend increases?

I’m not entirely sure I caught all of that correctly. To summarize, we're not looking at further acquisitions in Zimbabwe; our plate is full. Secondly, we have a substantial capital investment program in the Bilboes project, and details will be clarified soon. Given this context, increasing the dividend would not be appropriate. However, we plan to maintain the dividend. While we cannot promise this definitely, we strive not to reduce it. Past actions in maintaining and raising the dividends should give shareholders comfort as we move into Bilboes and other projects aimed at increasing dividends. This is crucial to us.

If you could provide a general idea of when dividend increases might occur again, would they happen after the Bilboes and Motapa projects are substantially completed?

Well, they would occur after Bilboes is completed. And let's be clear, we're doing Bilboes with the aim of increasing cash generation to bolster dividend-paying capacity. That's the objective; we’ve been paying dividends for around 12 years now. Reviewing the returns generated for shareholders in the last decade shows substantial outperformance versus gold and the GDXJ. A significant factor has been continuous dividends over the last 10 to 12 years. Paying dividends is embedded in our strategy, and I hope that our history shows commitment to increasing dividends while we develop Bilboes and other projects.

Sorry for the background noise. Will any of the work done on Motapa be included in the feasibility study for Bilboes?

No, it’s too early for that. A maiden resource at Motapa next year is only a staging post. Completing work at Motapa will take 3 to 5 years, so folding Motapa into Bilboes at the outset would bring considerable delay. The first six years of the Bilboes project will focus on mining in the Isabella-McCays area, followed by the latter four years meeting needs from Bubi. During this period, there’s ample time to finish geological work at Motapa before eventually integrating it into Bilboes once Isabella-McCays material is exhausted. At this moment, delaying the project won't benefit shareholders.

For Blanket, you mentioned a plan for scheduled engineering work on winders and shafts. Is this all planning for 2026 engineering work?

Your line is poor. Can you please repeat your question? I couldn’t pick it all up.

Yes. You mentioned scheduled engineering work on winders and shafts for Blanket. Is that all planned for 2026?

Yes, that’s correct, Mark. Yes, for 2026 we plan on AC-DC conversion, an important step.

Yes, and the aim is to have a stockpile to ensure continuous milling through that hiatus without interrupting production.

Yes. So I missed a question for Craig here. When do you think you'll be in a position to do a reserve upgrade at Blanket? When would that result in a technical report summary?

We are currently busy with one. We will have a new technical report out by late Q1, including revised capital and resources, alongside revised reserve estimates.

Congratulations on the strong financial results. I have a couple of questions. Perhaps first for James, could you specifically speak about the development done in Eroica and BQR?

James?

So at the moment, in terms of development, nothing has significantly changed in Eroica and BQR. We are developing reserves in that area, and about 15% of our production is coming from there. These are still high-grade areas, with good values in Eroica and BQR. We unfortunately also had the loss of life incident in BQR, but we're confident development will lead to better reserves in the next 2 to 3 years.

On a related note, but this time directed to Craig. The discoveries at Sheet or the position of Sheet are very interesting. I know you're focusing on heap leach right now, but have you drilled deeper holes? Is there an extension at depth to Sheet? Is it disseminated sulfides or is it quartz?

Yes, regarding the surface exploration shown, it is situated 250 meters to the east of Sheet. Upon extrapolating underground workings, it appears this area hasn't been mined. This could indicate the presence of a previously unknown orebody in the footfall of Sheet. We intend to tackle this surface exploration, and we’re securing stronger electrohydraulic rigs for deeper drilling from the 9 level on Sheet to investigate the potential for deeper extensions.

Sorry, Yuvan, does that wrap up your queries?

Yes, thank you very much.

I can see we have a typed question, which I believe falls into your realm, Ross. Can you see it?

Sorry Mark, I didn't see enough, reading through.

The first question pertains to the downside gold price scenario below which we couldn’t sustain the dividend. Can you clarify that?

Yes, the downside scenario would be around $1,850, which is the lowest threshold we've modeled in the short term.

The second question addresses lease liabilities. I'm not fully comprehending the query concerning lease liabilities. Cash used for lease payments has been climbing year-on-year. What’s the long-term strategy for managing increased lease debt?

I’m unclear regarding the specificity of these leases.

We're not heavily leveraged; we do have some loan notes initially issued by the solar company. Caledonia took those loan notes over after selling the solar firm, interested in promoting debt capital growth in Zimbabwe. We aim to cultivate relations with reputable Zimbabwean institutions. Therefore, we carry those liabilities, alongside very short-term overdraft facilities, with many repaid during this quarter.

It likely pertains to property leases and new buildings signed under those leases, but these are immaterial on a larger scale.

Regarding the percentage tonnage being hoisted by #4 in Central Shaft, we aim for about 62% to come from Central Shaft this year, balancing through #4 Shaft. Considering tonnage metrics from 2020 where we hoisted 630,000 tonnes at 760 meters depth, this year, we expect around 830,000 tonnes, leading to significantly increased power usage for hoisting, doubling in computation compared to 2020. For the second question, the pressure on production costs is broad-based, stemming from various sources and not unique to any area. Labor costs are rising due to overtime and bonuses in production exceeding targets. We’ve implemented a time attendance system to effectively manage overtime and have improved efficiency in consumables over the past five years, reducing usage per tonne milled, but we are facing ongoing unit cost increases due to various reasons. Overall, the pressure on costs is structural.

This quarter, we've incurred additional costs related to repairing a ball mill, yet maintained tonnage throughput. While this was manageable, it resulted in extra repair costs. The primary uptick in costs is structural.

Are there further questions?

No further raised hands. We now return to you for closing remarks.

Thank you very much for joining us. I would characterize the quarter as solid, creating a good foundation. The exciting news flow will be the imminent updates regarding Bilboes. Thank you all for participating.