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DT Midstream, Inc. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

DT Midstream, Inc. (DTM)

Earnings Call FY2025 Q4 Call date: 2026-02-19 Concluded

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Operator

Welcome, everyone, to the DT Midstream Fourth Quarter and Year-end 2025 Earnings Call. I will now turn the call over to our speaker today, Todd Lohrmann, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Todd Lohrmann Head of Investor Relations

Good morning, and welcome, everyone. Before we get started, I would like to remind you to read the safe harbor statement on Page 2 of the presentation, including the reference to forward-looking statements. Our presentation also includes references to non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the reconciliations to GAAP contained in the appendix. Joining me this morning are David Slater, Executive Chairman and CEO; and Jeff Jewell, Executive Vice President and CFO. With that, I'll go ahead and turn the call over to David.

David Slater Chairman

Thanks, Todd, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining. During today's call, I'll discuss our 2025 accomplishments, recap the strategic milestones DTM has achieved since our spin-off approximately 5 years ago and provide an update on our organic growth project backlog and our outlook for 2026 and beyond. I'll then close with some observations on the current natural gas market fundamentals before turning it over to Jeff to review our financial performance and guidance. So with that, 2025 was another record year for DTM. Our adjusted EBITDA exceeded our increased guidance midpoint and represents a 17% increase from the prior year, driven by significant growth in the Pipeline segment, which has been a strategic focus for the company since we spun. The end of 2025 also marked 1 year since our Midwest pipeline acquisition, and I'm very pleased to report that we have successfully completed the integration of these assets. And I'd like to take a moment to recognize and thank the team for their hard work on this effort. From a commercial perspective, last year, we advanced more than $1 billion of organic opportunities from our backlog, of which 80% is for pipeline projects. On the construction front, we continued our successful track record of project execution. Most notably, our construction team placed the LEAP Phase 4 expansion into service early and on budget, increasing the capacity of LEAP to 2.1 Bcf per day. Additionally, we placed several gathering projects into service across our footprint, which enabled us to achieve record high throughput in 2025. We also continued our disciplined financial management, prioritizing a strong balance sheet and achieved investment-grade credit ratings across all 3 rating agencies. So I am very pleased with our overall performance last year, which reflects the continued focused execution of our core strategy, pure-play natural gas, leading contribution from the pipeline segment long-term demand-based contracts and a high-quality portfolio of strategically located assets. Since we spun the company nearly 5 years ago, DTM has consistently outperformed the broader market and our midstream peers, delivering total shareholder return of approximately 280%, including 12% compounded annual adjusted EBITDA growth and a consistently growing and durable dividend. Our high-quality natural gas pipeline segment has driven this growth, increasing from 50% of our business to 70% today, the highest among our peer group. Our portfolio continues to be well contracted with 95% demand-based agreements and an average contract tenure of 8 years, which reflects how the market values these assets and our ability to continually replenish the contract tenor. We have also successfully executed focused, strategic bolt-on acquisitions that have increased our ownership in regulated pipeline assets. All of these great accomplishments could not have been achieved without the hard work and dedication from our team to whom I am forever grateful and who continue to be the foundation of our success. Their commitment to safety, performance excellence and customer service are core elements of our exceptional results, and I'm excited for the future and our ability to deliver on the tremendous opportunities ahead. Turning to 2026 and beyond. We are very well positioned within the natural gas ecosystem to serve the increasing demand across our footprint and continue our track record of premium, high-quality natural gas pipeline growth. Supported by strong fundamentals, we are embarking upon a window of generational investment opportunities and have updated our overall organic project backlog to reflect this, increasing it by approximately 50% to $3.4 billion over the next 5 years, with pipeline projects leading the way, comprising approximately 75% of the backlog. Our growth backlog represents our FID projects and probability-adjusted future organic opportunities that we are committing to execute on and can be fully funded with our strong cash flows and healthy balance sheet. The gross backlog is much larger, which is an indicator of the extraordinary opportunity set that exists. We will continue our prudent capital allocation through this investment cycle and expect to deliver growth above our long-term growth rate guidance in the later part of the decade, driven by sizable projects being placed in service. With that, I'm pleased that 2026 is already off to a great start, and we are announcing that we've reached FID on 2 new projects in our Pipeline segment. The first is an expansion of Viking to serve low growth in Grand Forks, North Dakota, and is anchored by an investment-grade utility customer under a long-term negotiated rate contract and is expected to go into service in Q4 2027. The second is our next phase of Interstate Pipelines modernization program, which will be focused on Midwestern pipeline, and will improve the reliability of this critical capacity serving the market corridor between Chicago and Nashville. With these projects commercialized, we have approximately $1.6 billion committed out of our $3.4 billion backlog. We are also advancing additional pipeline projects towards FID. Vector Pipeline closed a successful binding open season for an expansion to increase westbound capacity into Chicago by approximately 400 million cubic feet per day and has the contractual support needed to move forward subject to final approvals from both owners and is expected to be in service in Q4 2028. Millennium Pipeline has obtained contractual support for the R2R project as the long-term agreements have been executed with 2 utilities and an existing power plant. Subject to final approvals from both owners, the project is expected to be fully in service in Q1 2027. We will provide more updates once these projects are formally approved. Turning to project construction. We placed the Stonewall Mountain Valley pipeline expansion into service early and on budget at the beginning of February, and deliveries are being made to Mountain Valley for multiple customers. In addition, our Phase III Appalachia gathering system expansion has now reached full in service, also early and on budget. All other previously announced growth investment projects remain on track and on budget. Finally, I'd like to take a moment to provide our view on the natural gas market fundamentals. Natural gas has firmly established itself as a core North American fuel, offering unmatched affordability and reliability, lower emissions and the security of a domestic resource base. It underpins the onshoring of manufacturing, rapid data center development and the continued build-out of LNG exports, all key drivers of long-term demand and foundational to America's global competitive posture. With these tailwinds, the stage is set for specific opportunities driving our strategy, and we are seeing these strong structural demand signals across our operating footprint. Demand for natural gas to serve power continues to accelerate across the Upper Midwest with approximately 35 gigawatts of coal plant generation expected to retire in the next 10 to 15 years, and increasing announcements of new large loads and data centers being sited. This demand is largely going to land with utilities in these states who have announced contracted and potential large load opportunities of approximately 50 gigawatts and are planning to invest close to $150 billion in new generation over the next 5 years to keep pace with below growth. These are large numbers. And while not all power demand will be served by natural gas, we see an addressable opportunity set of up to 13 Bcf per day and a pathway that could easily result in 5 to 8 Bcf per day of potential incremental gas demand in the upper Midwest. DTM's extensive interstate gas pipeline network is uniquely located across this region and is already serving many of the utilities that will experience this low growth, positioning us to fuel many of these opportunities. On the LNG front, we saw 4 terminals reach FID in 2025 as well as international companies vertically integrating in the Haynesville to extend their natural gas value chain, both of which will support strong and sustained export demand. We expect LNG demand to grow by 11 Bcf through 2030, with 2/3 being served by the Haynesville. In our integrated system with its leading connectivity to both supply and demand markets is exceptionally well positioned to capitalize on the strengthening trends. I'd also like to address the recent cold weather. It has illuminated the tightness that exists today in the North American market, resulting in extreme price volatility across our entire footprint, a signal of capacity constraints driven by demand growth. The natural gas pipeline and storage network performed very well during the cold, demonstrating its reliability to serve its existing firm customers. However, the price volatility is a strong signal that we need to build and expand the pipeline network to bring more natural gas to serve the growing demand. For DTM, this winter, our storage complex recorded all-time high withdrawals, and many of our pipelines experienced record high peak day throughputs. Pulling this all together, today's natural gas market fundamentals make DTM's natural gas infrastructure critically important and positioned for growth. And with that, I'll pass it over to Jeff to walk you through our financial results and outlook.

Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. For 2025, DTM's adjusted EBITDA was $1.138 billion, an increase of 17% over the prior year, supported by our Pipeline segment's 27% growth, which was driven by the Midwest Pipeline acquisition and higher LEAP and storage revenue. For the fourth quarter, we delivered overall adjusted EBITDA of $293 million, a $5 million increase from the prior quarter, which was driven by increased seasonal demand on our JV pipelines and higher LEAP revenue. Our Gathering segment results were in line with the third quarter. Operationally, for the quarter, we achieved a record high in total gathering volumes with the Haynesville averaging above 1.9 Bcf per day, slightly down from the third quarter due to upstream maintenance. Average volumes in the Northeast ramped in the fourth quarter to approximately 1.3 Bcf per day, in line with our expectations of flat entry to exit for the year. In 2026, winter storm Fern drove some production curtailments, which is contemplated in our 2026 guidance range. Moving forward to our financial outlook for 2026 and beyond, as we have done in the past, we are providing the current year guidance as well as an early outlook for the following year. For 2026, our adjusted EBITDA guidance range is $1.155 million to $1.225 billion, with the midpoint representing 6% growth over our 2025 original guidance midpoint. Our 2027 early outlook range for adjusted EBITDA is $1.225 billion to $1.295 billion, with the midpoint representing a 6% increase over the 2026 guidance midpoint. Our adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 and for 2027 is supported by the incremental contribution from our organic growth investments as well as expected activity from our major producer customers. Our 2026 growth capital guidance is $420 million to $480 million, and we've increased our committed capital to reflect the new FID growth projects with approximately $390 million now committed. For 2027, we expect the level of growth investments to be above 2026. And we already have approximately $430 million committed. As David mentioned, we have reached FID on a Viking pipeline expansion, and we expect to invest a total of $30 million to $40 million for the project. We have also FID-ed Phase 2 of our Interstate modernization program, which has a planned investment range of $140 million to $160 million at an expected first half 2028 in service date. The capital associated with this project will be included in the next rate case. From a balance sheet perspective, we are very pleased with obtaining an investment-grade credit rating in 2025, which we are committed to preserving as evidenced by our 2026 year-end forecast for on-balance sheet leverage of 2.9x and proportional leverage of 3.5x. With our cash flows being strong and our healthy balance sheet, we will fully fund our project backlog with significant headroom for additional future growth opportunities. And finally, our Board has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.88 per share, which represents a 7.3% increase from the prior year and continues our track record of providing leading dividend growth. Our approach to delivering a secured dividend has not changed as we plan to grow it in line with adjusted EBITDA and are committed to maintaining a strong coverage ratio above our 2x floor, which was 2.6x for 2025. And with that, I will now pass it back over to David for closing remarks.

David Slater Chairman

Thanks, Jeff. So in summary, we're highly confident in delivering on our guidance, continuing our track record of strong performance. Looking ahead, the fundamentals supporting our business are exceptionally strong, and our integrated footprint sits in the most advantaged corridors to benefit from this generational investment opportunity. Our sizable organic project backlog with potential for additional opportunities reflects our disciplined focus capital allocation to high-quality natural gas pipeline projects. We will continue our consistent execution of this strategy, which has delivered dependable best-in-class growth and will continue to create significant value for years to come. And with that, we can now open up the line for questions.

Operator

We will go first to Theresa Chen from Barclays.

Speaker 4

It's encouraging to see such a robust project backlog, the breadth and depth of the opportunities is impressive. Can you discuss the expected pace and cadence of commercialization from here, the key drivers behind that trajectory? And how it informs your outlook for capital spending beyond 2027?

David Slater Chairman

Thank you for the question, Theresa. We're very excited about the current opportunities in our market. It's a dynamic environment, and with the recent utility announcements regarding their year-end results and future outlook, we see our opportunities expanding. Our Upper Midwest assets are especially promising as these utilities are our current customers, and we're actively engaging with them about their growth plans and requirements. We expect these discussions to progress in a systematic and rational manner. Many demands are influenced by state regulatory frameworks, resulting in a thorough approval process with utilities, which should provide us with solid and sustainable opportunities to pursue contracts. Our Guardian project from last year serves as a strong example of what we anticipate moving forward. Similarly, the Vector expansion into Chicago is also utility-driven. We're witnessing this consistent pattern across our asset base. Shifting our focus to LNG, we have a clear perspective on growth in that area. Two-thirds of the Haynesville region is projected to contribute to this growth, and we are well-positioned to tap into that increasing demand along with LEAP.

Speaker 4

And maybe specifically turning to Midwestern Gas Transmission. The potential expansion of that pipeline, how are conversations progressing at this point? What scale or scope could this ultimately reach, and how are you thinking about the opportunity generally at this stage, knowing that multiple sources of demand as well as optionality for supply connectivity here?

David Slater Chairman

Yes. That's a really exciting one, Theresa. We're in deep conversations with our existing customers on Midwestern for both a northern expansion and a southern expansion and just if you can visualize the asset, REX cuts right across the pipeline asset. So supply can come in from Appalachia and it can come in from the Rockies. So there's supply diversity through the REX connection and strong demand signals to bring more gas north into the greater Chicago area, Upper Midwest, but we're also seeing strong demand signals to push gas south into what I'll call that greater Nashville region. It is also experiencing tremendous power demand growth.

Operator

Up next, we'll take a question from Julian Dumolin Smith from Jefferies.

Speaker 5

It is Rob Mosca on for Julian. So pick up a big update here with the 5-year growth CapEx outlook. But hopefully, you could dive into how you arrive at that number, maybe how you're risk adjusting that outlook for the uncommitted CapEx. And how do you characterize the texture, the geography within that uncommitted capital outlook? I'm just hoping you could dig into that gross number a little bit more?

David Slater Chairman

Sure. I mean it's really increased from our last outlook a year ago. And I think we've talked about that as the year has progressed, and that's the fluidity of the market. The backlog continues to grow. We're highly confident in the increase that we laid out for the investors. About half of that is FID already. The other half is highly probable. We look at our gross backlog, which by the way, is multiples of this committed backlog that we're committing to execute on. So it's probability adjusted based on our historical success ratio. So we're highly confident in deploying $3.4 billion. And as I said earlier, this is an extremely fluid market with incremental ways of demand that seems to be showing up every time we talk to our customers. So we're very bullish right now. We're also very disciplined, and we tend to have a conservative view on running the business, which delivers these very consistent results. So we're just really in a sweet spot right now in the market. The assets are in the right location, both in the north and in the south, and the fundamentals around our assets are very strong. So our job here is to commercialize this and do it in a really rational and prudent manner. And I expect we're going to continue to deliver great returns for the investors.

Speaker 5

I appreciate that commentary, David. And it seems like there's a large open season for pipeline right now. I would serve some of that growing Midwest demand, I think you alluded to in your prepared remarks. Just wondering how that expansion or other third-party expansions in the region could impact your ability to execute some of those planned pipeline expansions that you guys have or seeking to have FID-ed? Or should we not think about it as being mutually exclusive?

David Slater Chairman

Yes, Rob, we welcome competition. The projects we initiated last year also faced competitive pressure, such as Guardian and Vector, and that doesn’t concern us. Location, connectivity, and our track record are crucial. In my opening remarks, I mentioned an addressable opportunity of 5 to 8 Bcf a day, which is significant in the Upper Midwest. There’s ample opportunity for others to get involved, and we can still achieve excellent results. Even capturing just 1 or 2 Bcf would deliver impressive outcomes for the company. Our focus is currently on the market and building relationships, working individually with customers to provide tailored solutions for their growth. The utilities we’re engaging with are also seeing significant growth, and I believe this will have a positive impact across our assets. I'm particularly excited about the connectivity among our various assets. You can see this with Vector and the FID for Guardian last year. We're close to initiating the FID for Vector. This positive momentum is currently evident across our asset base, and I anticipate it will continue.

Operator

Michael Blum from Wells Fargo has the next question.

Speaker 6

I wanted to ask on the backlog again. So you mentioned the gross backlog is much larger than the risk-adjusted backlog number that you provided. I'm wondering if you're willing to give us that gross number or some way to size what that is with some of your pipeline competitor peers would call the shadow backlog, so we can get a sense of the total magnitude of the opportunity set?

David Slater Chairman

Michael, I anticipated that someone would bring up that question. I'll say it's multiples, and I'll leave it at that, allowing you to infer a number or a range. I refer to it as a generational investment opportunity, and it genuinely is. Right now, our focus remains on our core business, our pipelines in our core region, and deploying capital wisely to ensure that returns materialize from these significant capital investments. I certainly remember what happened in the sector a decade ago, and it did not end well. We are committed to deploying capital in a very prudent and rational manner as we approach another significant cycle of capital investment opportunities. We remain highly focused on this. A robust opportunity set provides a healthy environment for us to operate in, enabling us to be selective and focused, and to do what’s best for our investors.

Speaker 6

Got it. I appreciate that. And then just wanted to ask a question on the growth CapEx. You came in a little light versus your own guidance for '25. And I think you would even reduce that number during this past in 2025 last year. So can you just speak to what's going on there? And is that just capital efficiency on your part? Or is it timing and that CapEx is just going to show up in 2026?

David Slater Chairman

Yes. Yes, you're spot on. It's performance, capital efficiency, I call it, performance, and it's timing. So it's no more complicated than that.

Operator

From Goldman Sachs, John Mackay has the next question.

Speaker 7

David, you've talked a lot in the past about wanting to stay kind of front to meter with the utilities. We have seen kind of behind the meter pick up some momentum again recently. I'd be curious just to hear a little bit on your view there where it sits now, particularly in the context of a broader focus on affordability for the utilities?

David Slater Chairman

Yes, John, we are noticing increased demand from the Energy Island load entering the pipeline, and we are pleased to secure long-term contracts on the main lines. This demand is becoming evident throughout the area. The utilities have done an excellent job capturing this market through regulatory measures. Their filings clearly outline how this approach reduces costs for their other customers, leading to an overall subsidization. Large load customers, like data centers, appreciate that the utilities are reliable counterparts, providing reassurance with their connection to the grid and diversity. The utilities are offering many appealing features to this market segment. We are excited to collaborate with our current utility customers to supply the fuel for these projects. We have been observing utilities achieving greater success over the past year, and we appreciate that it is part of a regulated structure, which I believe ensures lasting demand.

Speaker 7

That's clear. My second question is about the many projects you've announced, which are primarily brownfield expansions of existing assets. I'm interested in your perspective on potential opportunities in greenfield developments and the possibility of pursuing incremental bolt-on mergers and acquisitions to replicate what you achieved with your previous assets.

David Slater Chairman

Yes. We are focusing predominantly on what I'll call in the footprint expansions. They're easier. They're typically more economic because you can scale it, and they're lower risk from an execution/regulatory perspective. So I think there's a lot of features to addressing this demand through that mechanism, if you can, versus a brand new greenfield. When we did Nexus 10 years ago, that was a heavy, heavy lift to get that through. And then if you remember, there was a 1-year delay or regulatory delay on that project. So it's a super big capital investment. If you get any delays, it can have a pretty material impact on you quickly. So we like the risk profile of the brownfield. In terms of greenfield, where we are seeing greenfield, we continue to pursue greenfield storage opportunities. Some of the fundamentals that we laid out in the deck, where you see the extreme price volatility across our footprint, it's really screaming for more capacity, both pipeline and storage capacity. So that's probably where we see more of a greenfield opportunity in the near term.

Operator

Next question comes from Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan.

Speaker 8

Just want to come to Slide 10, if we could. And there's been a lot of discussion on the capital side. But just wonder if you could dial in a little bit more on the translation to EBITDA growth. The slide here says elevated organic growth and it points post 2027. I was just wondering if you could expand a bit more on what that looks like, what the quantity of this elevated growth looks like?

David Slater Chairman

Sure, Jeremy. I'll begin with the backlog update. That's the driving force behind our EBITDA growth. Most of our capital investment, about 75%, is being allocated to the Pipeline segment, which is regulated and has a longer cycle for capital investment to EBITDA generation, typically around 2.5 to 3 years. This will significantly enhance the second half of our 5-year plan. I prefer not to assign a specific number to this because the market is quite dynamic right now. The opportunities available are strong, and each time we reassess, they appear even more promising. We're still in the early stages of this cycle, and I believe it's best to allow it to develop further before attempting to finalize our projections for the end of our 5-year plan. However, the outlook is positive, and we're optimistic about the fundamentals. We've outlined these fundamentals in the presentation for you. I anticipate we can discuss this further as the year progresses, examining our perspectives and how this begins to take shape.

Speaker 8

Got it. That makes sense. I don't want to put a ceiling on it given all the opportunities there. I was wondering not to push too much here, but could we put a floor on it? I mean, if it's 5% to 7%, you say now, and I would assume that, that elevated growth is at least 7% plus or any other way to think about what a floor might look like?

David Slater Chairman

I think you just said it really well, Jeremy. I won't add anything to your comment there.

Operator

Next question will come from Jean Salisbury from Bank of America.

Speaker 9

It looks like the gathering and the new backlog is up by a couple of hundred million even though several 2025 gathering projects came online. So I guess my question is versus a year ago, is this an increase in expected gathering spend? Is it primarily driven by the Haynesville or Appalachia or both?

David Slater Chairman

That's a good question. I want to remind everyone that our gathering assets are all interconnected with our pipelines, so they support them. As for your question, Jean Ann, I'm not entirely sure of the answer right now, and I don't want to make any assumptions. We can follow up with you on that. How does that sound?

Speaker 9

Yes, no problem. I want to go back to what Todd mentioned. As a follow-up, there's a point in the presentation regarding future LEAP expansions likely being linked to the next wave of LNG from 2028 to 2030, and I would like some clarification on that. My understanding was that most of the LNG projects currently under construction have already secured their gas supply. I might be mistaken, but are you anticipating a new wave of contracting as these projects start coming online?

David Slater Chairman

Yes. I think you've got 2 projects that just came online in the second half of last year, and that's getting absorbed into the market. And I think this next wave is going to be the wave that drives the next round of incremental expansion. We're in detailed conversations with numerous shippers on this topic right now. So it feels very ripe for us. So I would stay tuned. And as we commercialize these, we'll be sharing them.

Operator

Keith Stanley from Wolfe Research is up.

Speaker 10

And I'd like to circle back on Slide 10. So David, no, you don't want to put a cap on the 2030 outlook, but that green bar, you can kind of figure out where it's going, if you just extrapolate the chart? I guess I'm curious in that 2030 figure, we're getting to like a 7% to 8% CAGR through 2030. Is that directionally right over a 5-year period? And when you show that green bar, is that only baking in sanctioned projects to date? Or is that including a fair amount of executing on the unsanctioned projects that you've identified as well?

David Slater Chairman

Keith, the green bar represents the updated backlog of $3.4 billion. That's how to think about it. I want to emphasize that we are currently early in the process, and the market is quite fluid, making it difficult to assign a precise number. As I mentioned, I don't want to limit our potential. I prefer to allow the market to develop further, and we will provide clearer insights once we are confident in our execution.

Speaker 10

Got it. So just to clarify on that. The green bar is effectively the $3.4 billion divided by EBITDA build multiples that you're assuming in that outlook?

David Slater Chairman

That would be the back of the envelope math, Keith, what you just said.

Speaker 10

Okay. Great. Second question, just following up on the Midwestern expansion potential, any better sense of timing? You said you're in deep conversations. I assume you need an open season there. Just any sense of when you're hoping to get more clarity on that project? Is it next 6 months? Is it beyond that? Just how would you put that?

David Slater Chairman

Yes, it's definitely in front of us right now, Keith, like right in front of us. So there's clearly a need for more volumes into Chicago. We commercialized the vector piece. We've turned our attention now to Midwestern. We'll turn our attention back to Vector as well for another round there. But yes, it's front and center, and it's on everyone's mind right now. All of our customers are looking closely at all of this. As I kind of alluded to, we're in deep discussions with a lot of the shippers, predominantly the regulated entities on those lines. And we're going to move at their pace. And that's what I'll say right now, but it's a hot topic right now, so...

Operator

Your next question is from Samantha Banergy from UBS.

Speaker 11

I was just curious about the additional modernization opportunities that you mentioned in the deck? And is it great to see the Phase 2 interstate pipeline modernization feed? So just curious about that.

David Slater Chairman

Yes. Thanks for the question. Yes, that Phase 2 is going to be focused on the Western and it's going to be focused on reliability, predominantly compression, replacing some aging end-of-life compression. And yes, that will roll through the next rate case on Midwestern. So really feel good about those investments. They're very much needed. And yes, I think it will be a pretty standard play for us to make those investments and roll them through the next rate case.

Speaker 11

Got it. That's really helpful. And then the second question I had was just a general one on capital allocation priorities going forward and how you're looking at balancing dividend growth versus keeping leverage maintained?

David Slater Chairman

Yes. I mean, we're very focused on capital allocation. If you look at the backlog, the majority of the backlog is going to be allocated into our pipeline segment, predominantly the regulated pipeline segment, so those tend to be backed by long-term 10-, 20-year contracts, again, predominantly with utilities, so investment-grade counterparties. So very strong cash flows and security of those cash flows over the long term. We've committed since we spun the company to grow the dividend in line with EBITDA growth. And I think over the last 5 years, you can see us doing that consistently. Our plan is to continue to do that going forward and maybe, Jeff, you can talk about the balance sheet and how our thoughts on managing the balance sheet and the dividend...

Sure can. Yes. So what our plan is, again, we've been talking about this since the spin as we fund our internal capital allocation plan with our free cash flow, we're going to naturally and have been naturally deleveraging. And so with that, we're able to fund all the projects and everything that David has been talking about and the growing dividend inside of our capital capacity or credit capacity.

David Slater Chairman

And I'd say we work pretty hard to get to investment grade. And now that we've crossed that hurdle, we're firmly staying on that side of the line.

Yes, we have ample room regarding the credit metric. Therefore, we are very confident in our ability to fund all the opportunities that come our way.

Operator

Moving on to Zach Van Everon from TPH and Co.

Speaker 12

Maybe first on the Haynesville. We've continued to see the rig count step up into the beginning of '26. Curious on conversations with producers and just views on overall capacity needs in the basin.

David Slater Chairman

Sure. Let me address that, Zack. We observed a significant increase in the Haynesville in the third and fourth quarters, and we expect those strong volumes to continue this year. Our largest customer is public, and they have recently shared their growth outlook for the year, which serves as a good benchmark for us. We also have several other producers that are growing their portfolios, and we anticipate participating in that activity as well. However, the primary shipper is public, so I recommend looking at their public disclosures for more information.

Speaker 12

Perfect. Appreciate that. And then maybe 1 in the Northeast. With the open season on vector and some producers up in the Northeast talking about more growth coming in the next few years, could you maybe give an update on NEXUS and the ability to expand that? What size that could look like in any conversations going on currently around that pipe?

David Slater Chairman

Certainly. It’s somewhat of a domino effect that I mentioned earlier, and we’re observing this across our portfolio as we expand the last-mile pipeline. We need to consider an expansion upstream, which eventually connects back to where production takes place. As we see Vector pulling an additional 400 million a day of supply from Michigan, there will need to be a solution to offset that. We are actively collaborating with potential shippers to make use of Nexus for this purpose. Nexus can be easily expanded with compression capabilities in increments of a few hundred million a day. This is a key focus for us as the market evolves and demand increases in the upper Midwest. Our goal is to facilitate additional access points from Appalachia to increase supply to this region. If our analysis holds true that 5 to 8 Bcf a day will see growth over the next five years, we will need to expand pipelines in this area to accommodate that demand. Appalachia is the nearest supply basin, with the Rockies also capable of serving the Midwest. We are looking forward to advancing these projects and appreciate the domino effect across our portfolio as we reconnect with the basin.

Operator

And everyone, there are no further questions at this time. I'll now turn the conference back to the company for any additional remarks or closing statements.

David Slater Chairman

Well, thank you. I just want to thank everyone for joining us today. Thank you for your interest and support of the company, and I look forward to seeing everybody in person at one of the next conferences. Have a great day.

Operator

And once again, everyone, that does conclude today's conference. We would like to thank you all for your participation today. You may now disconnect.