Eni Spa Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Eni's 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results Conference Call hosted by Mr. Claudio Descalzi, Chief Executive Officer. I will now turn it over to your host to start today's conference. Thank you.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. 2025 was a year of exceptional progress at Eni. We developed and executed our distinctive strategy in many cases, exceeding our original target. We will discuss in detail our updated plan at the forthcoming Capital Markets update in March. But I can say at this point that 2025 provides an excellent guide to what you should expect the future to hold for Eni. Last year's results proved the value of our consistent strategies, strong operational and financial performance, timely project delivery to support growth, and diversified investment for the short and long term to generate further value for investors. Specifically, looking in detail at the three main business pillars, the successes are compelling. First, Global Natural Resources. We started up six major projects as planned. This supported an underlying production increase of 4%, well above our original full year guidance and growth above 7% over the 2022-2025 period, leading among our peers. Project execution is a clear strength of ours, and both Agogo, Angola, and Congo LNG are further examples of our leadership in time to market. In addition, we took FIDs on four major new projects, three of which are operated, driving a stronger service replacement ratio of above 160% and meaning we currently have 500,000 barrels per day of production under development, securing our medium-term outlook. At the portfolio level, we have also established a new platform of growth by creating our largest business combination with Petronas in Indonesia and Malaysia. And we are progressing our Argentina LNG project with YPF and XRG. Alongside our continued exploration success, this underpins our long-term outlook. We discovered 900 million barrels of new resources in 2025, reaffirming our industry-leading track record. Now we have over 10 billion barrels of resources discovered since 2014 at less than $1 per barrel from multiple geographies and different geological plays. Our focus on value as well as volume is also emphasized by our continued actions to valorize our resources through dual exploration. As we did in Indonesia with the business combination in Côte d'Ivoire and high-grading our portfolio through tail asset divestment. GGP is a business we have comprehensively transformed in the past few years. And notwithstanding a softer market, we delivered EBIT above EUR 1 billion for the fourth consecutive year. Gas to power was also a strong contributor in 2025. And together, this result emphasized the work underway to capture more margin from our equity production. Second, our transition activities generate material growth and value creation and are important in diversifying and strengthening any earnings. In a year that was not remarkable for market improvement, we improved the robustness of our integrated business models, and we have been rewarded with strong earnings, EUR 2 billion of EBITDA and by the validation from the market with a contribution of EUR 5.8 billion from top private equity firms. These deals were completed in a multiple around 3x those of Eni stand-alone, implying over EUR 23 billion of enterprise value for these new business lines. We are locking in further growth with both Plenitude and Enilive. Plenitude expanded its renewable capacity by more than 40% in 2025 and we'll add 10% to its customer base in 2026 on closing the agreed Acea Energia acquisition. Enilive has three new biorefineries under construction and two more have recently reached FID, together representing a further net 2 million tonnes of annual capacity. And third, industrial transformation. Changes in the energy market bring challenges that we are successfully mitigating but also opportunities. In this context, we are advancing the transformation of our traditional refineries. And we have set out decisive measures to address challenges in our chemical business that are impacting the entire European industry. In 2025, we accelerated these actions, closing the crackers at Brindisi and Priolo three to six months earlier than planned. At the same time, we are transforming Versalis towards bio, circular, and specialized products. The strategic and operational progress achieved in 2025 translates into exceptional financial delivery. Our robust financial position is critical in managing the cycle, preserving flexibility, and delivering our strategy. Last year, CFFO at EUR 12.5 billion was EUR 1.5 billion ahead of plan on a scenario-adjusted basis. Responding promptly to the more challenging scenario, we cut gross CapEx from a planned EUR 9 billion to EUR 8.5 billion. We identified cash initiatives totaling EUR 4 billion raised from an initial EUR 2 billion, including delivering EUR 0.5 billion of savings. Net CapEx on a pro-forma basis was lower than EUR 5 billion versus our initial expectation of EUR 6.5 billion to EUR 7 billion as we executed on more portfolio activity for better value. As a result, pro-forma gearing at year-end was 14%, with net debt down almost EUR 3 billion over the year. These outcomes gave us the opportunity to raise our share buyback by 20% from EUR 1.5 billion to EUR 1.8 billion, achieving the unique combination in 2025 of both lowering debt and enhancing shareholder distribution. In Q4, pro-forma adjusted EBIT was EUR 2.9 billion, up 6% year-on-year despite the lower oil price and weaker dollar. We reported excellent E&P results with production up 7% year-on-year and 5% sequentially at 1.839 million barrels per day, underpinned by the positive impact of 2025 start-ups. Full year production of 1.78 million barrels per day was 2% above our guidance for the year. GGP Q4 EBIT of EUR 0.1 billion delivered on our raised full year guidance of more than EUR 1 billion despite relatively low volatile markets. Plenitude and Enilive together delivered EUR 2 billion of pro-forma adjusted EBIT in the year, and Enilive benefited from improved bio margins in the quarter, partly offsetting seasonally lower marketing. Refining returned to profit in the quarter, albeit held back by relatively low utilization rates, while chemicals continued to see a weak scenario setting the early benefits of the restructuring underway. Q4 adjusted net profit was EUR 1.2 billion, with a tax rate of 37% as we adjusted to a full year rate of 44%, just below guidance. CFFO in Q4 was EUR 3 billion, representing excellent cash conversion again, helped by the material cash initiatives we undertook in the year. Full year cash flow at EUR 12.5 billion was EUR 1.5 billion above our full year guidance on a scenario-adjusted basis. Thanks to a release in working capital and our actions around the portfolio, we were able to fund our CapEx, shareholder distributions, and other commitments, and also to significantly reduce debt. Gross organic CapEx in the quarter was EUR 2.6 billion, taking the full year figure to EUR 8.5 billion, EUR 0.5 billion less than our original plan. Valorizations and portfolio activities have raised around EUR 10 billion over the past two years. In 2025, we completed more than EUR 6.5 billion in valorization of portfolio activity, which meant that adjusting to a pro-forma basis, net CapEx was lower than EUR 5 billion, around EUR 2 billion below our original plan. But 2025 is not a one-off year. For 2026, we expect to limit our gross CapEx to around EUR 7 billion and net CapEx at around EUR 5 billion. We reduced net debt over 2025 by almost EUR 3 billion, as we said, bringing gearing to 15% at year-end or 14% on a pro-forma basis. We can confirm that we expect pro-forma gearing in 2026 to remain at historically low levels at between 10% to 15%. Regarding our shareholder distribution details, we have to revert to the CMU in March, but we can confirm a fully funded attractive and growing dividend is our first priority. In the last five years, we have raised the dividend by an average of 5% per year, reflecting underlying growth and the reduction of share issues. At the same time, we have an additional tool of distribution via the buyback that reflects our policy of showing cash flow generation and upside. In 2025, for example, we raised the buyback by 20%, marking the third occasion in the past four years that we have increased distributions. In conclusion, 2025 was a clear outcome of Eni's strategy in action. Looking ahead, we will update you on our plan in March, but the strategy remains unchanged. The choices we make in how we do business are driven by our industrial, technological, and commercial strength and by a business model that has proven to perform in strong and soft market conditions. The upstream business will grow organically at a sector-leading rate, leveraging our exploration successes and our proven ability to fast track time to market while managing costs and delivering the value from our business combinations and partnerships. On the energy transition, we will deliver the programs outlined for Plenitude and Enilive while developing CCS, fusion, battery storage, and data centers for hyperscalers, coupled with Blue Power and exploring opportunities in critical minerals. Portfolio activity will again be material in 2026 as we continue to pursue disciplined capital alignment and value disclosure. In March, we will share with you the details that underpin this outlook and which support continued highly attractive investor returns. And now the rest of Eni's top management are ready to take your questions. Thank you.

First question is from Alejandro Vigil, Santander.

Congratulations on the results. I have two questions about the upstream business. Definitely, you will elaborate more on the Capital Markets Day. But I'm very interested in the outlook for this year, thanks to the contribution of the joint venture with Petronas, if you can elaborate about potential increase in production driven by this joint venture? And the second question is about Kazakhstan. There is a lot of noise in the media, and I would like to know your view about the situation in the country.

Thank you for the questions. I want to share some insights on Petronas and our outlook for Kazakhstan, and then Guido will provide further details on these matters. Regarding Petronas, we expect the finalization by the end of the second quarter, and it will certainly contribute to our production. While I can't provide exact figures at this moment, we will have more detailed information in March. This joint venture will enhance our production capacity significantly over six months, with an immediate output of around 300,000 barrels per day. Additionally, we have projects lined up that will allow us to achieve 500,000 barrels per day in the coming years, alongside successful drilling in Indonesia that can connect to our existing infrastructure, focusing on reserves rather than just resources. As for Kazakhstan, it has been a complex situation over the last 15 years, with renegotiations and discussions that often resemble friendly disputes. However, I remain optimistic about the future, and now I'll let Guido provide more insights.

Yes. Thanks, Claudio. The growth of production next year will be driven by the projects we have recently initiated. We can expect increased production from Congo, Norway, Angola, the UAE, and Indonesia. More details will be provided in a few weeks. Regarding Kazakhstan, the Republic has filed several arbitration claims concerning production performance, cost recovery, environmental issues, and sulfur storage, which the joint venture is currently defending. This claim is now in arbitration, and we do not expect a decision before 2027 or 2028. Nevertheless, the operator is confirming that operations have been conducted in accordance with Kazakhstan's laws, and we have always held the necessary permits. Therefore, we are contesting this sulfur refining issue in all relevant courts.

Thanks, Alex. We can now pass over to Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs.

Congratulations on the results. I wanted to ask two questions. First, on your CapEx guidance for '26 of EUR 7 billion. I was wondering if you could walk us through the bridge between the EUR 1.5 billion this year and the EUR 7 billion. Clearly, the deconsolidation of Indonesia plays a part, but if you could give us a bit more detail? And then secondly, the more we look at all of your discoveries and access in the last couple of years, it feels like you probably have the best pipeline of new projects you've ever had in your corporate history. How should we think about your priorities for FID in 2026, given the wealth of opportunities between Namibia, Indonesia, Cote d'Ivoire and all of your recent discoveries?

Okay. Thank you. Thank you for the question. So it's true, we said that we cut our CapEx or we reduced our CapEx from EUR 8.5 billion this year to EUR 7 billion. That is a reduction in terms of CapEx optimization. We are not reducing the growth. We are not touching the growth of the company, but just we became more efficient because we applied the strategy to be more efficient starting from exploration. So exploring and going to the places where we have existing facilities. And then this year, we had very excellent success. We are moving at EUR 1 billion or less than EUR 1 billion resource discoveries in the right places where we have infrastructure. That means that we can continue to reduce CapEx because we need less CapEx to produce more production. That was a strategy that is not something that you can start overnight. It's something that we started in 2011, '12, '13. It’s something that we built day by day because we never stop exploration. We never stop exploring. We never stop developing. We never stop going directly to the development and working as upstreamers. So that is the reason why we can reduce our gross CapEx. Then we have other points that maybe Guido can explain to you that is an additional important element regarding why we can reduce CapEx. Guido, you can explain.

Yes, Claudio. And I mean, just building on what you were saying about the advantaged barrels. The projects we have started up in the last four to five years and the prospective projects, which you will have more visibility into at the Capital Market update, are projects with, first of all, low unit development costs. Second, they have longer plateaus. So we can devote less CapEx to maintain production and fight the decline and more CapEx for the growth at the same CapEx level in a nutshell. As far as concerned, your question, Michele, about what will come next year. Of course, we have a great degree of optionality. We have a very large and diverse portfolio of projects. But clearly, next year, the projects that we will focus more on in terms of FID are Argentina, Ivory Coast, Cyprus, plus a few more geographies in Africa.

We're going to now move on to Biraj Borkhataria at RBC.

Just to follow up on the CapEx point and the number you guided today. How much of that year-on-year change is the Indonesia CapEx coming out as you deconsolidate it? And is there anything you can say on the CFFO contribution that will be removed also when you deconsolidate that production? And then the second question is just on Versalis. You've now closed down the crackers, but we haven't seen that sort of come through in the P&L. So do you still expect to be EBIT breakeven in 2027? And what should we expect for 2026?

CapEx in Indonesia will not see significant movement this year as we plan to start work there after the business combination of the new company, anticipated in the second quarter. The largest impact on CapEx will likely occur after making the final investment decision, which we expect around 2026, mainly in 2027. For questions regarding Versalis, I suggest that Adriano, the CEO of Versalis, can offer more detailed answers and insights.

Sure. Thank you for the question. I mean, we have seen some improvement in the second half of 2025 following the shutdown of the two crackers that, as we said before, we moved forward, and we stopped earlier than what was originally planned. Unfortunately, the positive impact, although you remember what we said in the previous call about the impact of the two major cracker shutdowns, you start to see after 12 to 18 months. So we've seen some positive impact, and this helped to mitigate the deterioration in the scenario. So we have seen improvement in the second half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2024, and we continue to see also in the beginning of the months of 2026. We are taking additional actions in order to mitigate the plan that is not coming as expected in terms of scenario. I'm pretty sure that you have seen so many shutdowns that have been announced in the last three years, close to 160 shutdown announcements. And in the next capital market update, we are going to share the plan for the next two to three years.

We're going to move to Lydia Rainforth at Barclays.

Two questions, if I could, please. The first one, on the exploration side and building a little bit on Michele's question earlier, you've clearly been very, very successful in what you've done. Can you actually give us what the success rate is now? Are we looking at sort of one in two, four out of five wells? I'm just trying to work out what that success rate is. And then secondly, just on AI, clearly, you've got a lot of computing power. I'm just wondering what you're seeing, if you're seeing any benefits at this point or what your plans are around that.

Last year, our exploration efforts were highly successful, with an exceptionally high success rate. This is reflected in the minimal write-offs recorded in our financials. The success rate was nearly 100% last year. Regarding artificial intelligence, we launched a new business line focused on data centers alongside our gas-fired plant. We are collaborating with international partners to establish a data center in northern Italy, near Milan, with an initial capacity of 500 megawatts planned in different phases. The first phase will offer 80 to 100 megawatts, while the second phase aims for 500 megawatts in an underdeveloped region. Italy is projected to have substantial demand for AI centers by 2030. We are pioneers in leveraging technology and supercomputational capabilities in our operations, and our exploration success exemplifies this. AI is also expected to enhance other areas of our upstream business, including production optimization, drilling, project improvements, and rotating machinery enhancements. We anticipate a considerable impact from AI, and it is worth noting that our industry already has one of the lowest downtime rates for production facilities at less than 1%, compared to the industry average of approximately 3.5%, according to WoodMac data.

We're now going to move to Irene Himona at Bernstein.

Congratulations on a strong year, especially in the upstream. Can you please say, firstly, what did you change exactly to high-grade production? What does that involve? Secondly, can you remind us what upstream tax rate we should expect in an environment of $65 to $70 Brent? And then finally, very quickly, looking at the 10 billion BOE of resources you have discovered since 2014, can you say roughly what the split is between gas and liquids, please?

We have focused on improving our portfolio by launching projects that yield very high profitable cash flow per barrel while selling off late-life assets. This strategy of introducing new projects alongside disposing of older assets is enhancing the quality of our portfolio. Additionally, we've observed a 10% increase in free cash flow per barrel when comparing 2024 to 2025. Regarding the tax rate...

Before discussing the tax rate, I want to highlight our successful production increase. What we stated is accurate. We have improved the quality of our barrels, resulting in higher cash flow per barrel. Additionally, over the past few years, we have excelled in adhering to our timelines and budgets. We have not only met our schedules but, in many instances, have delivered ahead of time. This has positively influenced our production outcomes and the internal rate of return for all our projects. We have stayed within our budget. While this may not be clear to everyone, including investors and our broader community, it is a crucial factor in our success regarding results and the value of our output. Now, regarding the tax rate.

On the tax rate, there are fluctuations that mainly relate to the composition. You mentioned the upstream tax rate, and the production contribution from different countries, the exploration write-off, and some additional one-off factors can influence certain effects. For 2026, we expect with a $62 assumption that the tax rate will be in the range of 45% to 50%. If prices improve, the tax rate will be lower.

Just to complete, you made another question; the split between oil and gas of the discovery is 70% gas and 30% oil.

We are now going to move over to Josh Stone at UBS.

Two questions, please. One, I wanted to pick up on this Italian energy reform that got passed and whether you had a chance to estimate the initial impacts because it looks like there's quite complicated, lots of moving parts. It's connected to gas spreads, the ETFs, and tax. Maybe you could just talk about how you're thinking about that being a net positive or net negative and the different impacts on your different parts of the businesses, that would be useful. And then the second question on the buyback. I know we've got to be patient for the actual number, but I was hoping you can maybe share just your thought process here and the importance you put on buybacks after the re-rating of your stock. And am I right in saying when you set this buyback, you'll be using the $62 oil price deck for 2026?

About the energy bill that you were referring to in Italy, clearly, the impact is slightly negative but quite marginal because you have to consider that as Eni, we are not just a supplier and a producer, but we are also an important industrial player in the country with different activities spanning from refining, chemicals, bio-refineries, and also certain upstream activities, clearly. So you have to consider that the overall effect is mitigated by this double exposure. So it's absolutely, let's say, marginal towards the overall performance of Eni. In terms of buyback, I was mentioning before, the reference is $62 for the expectation for the next year in terms of pricing. We have to confirm at the next Capital Market Day. Clearly, you know what is the structure of our distribution policy. When we set up a buyback that is clearly the variable component of our distribution, this is a floor. And historically, we proved that this is the floor because we raised the floor three times in four years. And the scope is substantially to share the upside that will emerge both in the performance and the scenario to our investors. We will provide all the details in the Capital Market Day at the end of March.

So now we are looking for Alastair Syme at Citigroup.

Yes. My question is about the ongoing discussions in Italy and the European Union regarding the European carbon scheme, the ETS. Since you operate in various capacities as a carbon emitter, power generator, and CCS business, could you share your perspective on the current political landscape and any changes you would like to see? Additionally, do you have any updates on the well you are drilling offshore in Libya?

Yes. Libya offshore, we are currently drilling one exploration well, and we'll announce results when they become available, of course.

I think that we are very ready to talk about drilling reservoir explorations and all we want. But on ETS, honestly, we cannot give you a lot of insight; it's the tax we pay. I don't know. Honestly, there is a big debate today because in Europe, the industry is suffering a lot. It's not growing. On the contrary, they are squeezing the industry in Europe with all the different kinds of taxes and green deals that negatively impacted all types of industry. ETS is one of these taxes. And Europe is the only region that applies these taxes at a very high level. So when we talk about competition with the rest of the world, it's not easy to compete one and the other without applying the same rules. So that's what I can say, but I do not want to enter any political debate. It's not our business. I prefer to increase production and get good results for my company instead of complaining about the taxes I'm paying. Thank you.

Claudio, can I ask, does it make you think differently about putting capital on the CCS business given that there is a potential that the legislation could change?

No, I think that change has already been made in the taxonomy and has been accepted. Currently, in the Netherlands, particularly in the U.K. and now in Italy, we have at least three countries where carbon capture and storage can be developed. The U.K. has made significant efforts for the future, and as a result, investment has begun, and the project has been approved. I believe the Netherlands will follow suit, and in Italy, we are very close to having new legislation. There is a substantial amount of potential to be tapped into, and we are establishing the company. We have already attracted interest from investors, and we have one on board already. I am optimistic, as Europe has finally accepted this vital tool for reducing CO2 emissions after many years. Clearly, carbon capture and storage complements the emissions trading scheme, and while capture has not yet matched, with the emissions trading scheme nearing EUR 90 per tonne, CCS based on existing assets, rather than new developments, is economically favorable and very positive.

Thanks, Claudio. Thanks, Al. That brings us to the end of the call. Thank you very much for your attention, both today and through 2025. We look forward to speaking to you all in greater detail on the new strategy and plan or the strategy and the new plan on the 19th of March. So we'll see you all then. Thank you very much.