Ecopetrol S.A. Q1 FY2020 Earnings Call

Good morning. My name is Anna, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Ecopetrol First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been completely on mute to avoid noise. After the speaker comments, there will be a Q&A section. You can send your questions throughout the webcast, please include your name and the name of your company. Thank you for your attention. Mr. Juan Pablo Crane will begin the conference today. Mr. Crane, you may begin your conference.

Good morning, everyone and welcome to Ecopetrol's earnings conference call and webcast in which we will discuss the main operational and financial results of Ecopetrol for the first quarter of 2020. Before we begin, it is important to take into account the legal disclosure specified on Slide 2. The call will be led by Mr. Felipe Bayon, CEO of Ecopetrol, who will be joined by Alberto Consuegra, COO; and Jaime Caballero, CFO. I will now hand over the presentation to Ecopetrol's CEO, Felipe Bayon.

Thank you, Juan Pablo, and welcome everyone to this 2020 first quarter results conference call. I hope you and your families are safe in the midst of this complex and unprecedented situation that both Colombia and the world are facing, which has had significant health, economic, and social implications. Before presenting the quarterly operational and financial results, I would like to share with you some of the measures we've implemented at the Ecopetrol Group to address the COVID-19 health emergency. Our employees are our most valuable asset, and protecting their health is our top priority by ensuring safe operations. I would like to give you an overview of some of these measures that we have adopted. First, we promptly implemented remote work, even prior to the authorities' declaration of mandatory lockdown measures. Currently, out of the 13,000 employees that we have in the Group, around 9,000 are working from home. This has been possible thanks to the digital transformation that we began some time ago, providing us with the technology required to respond to this crisis. Between 15% and 20% of our employees continue to work on-site, adhering to strict safety protocols across our production fields, refineries, oil pipelines, product pipelines, and ports. I want to recognize their efforts today. Thanks to their commitment, we have ensured the continuity of our operations and the supply of crude and products to the country. We have developed the concept of minimum operating vital, which allows us to determine the exact number of personnel required for each operational area to guarantee that production and the supply of fuel remain uninterrupted. Across the Group, we have pooled our efforts to cope with this unprecedented health emergency. To date, we have allocated about COP 69 billion through social investment, mainly to support the healthcare system and provide humanitarian aid across various regions in the country. Esenttia, the only polypropylene producer in the country, has prioritized its production to meet domestic market needs for raw materials used in essential products required by healthcare providers and the food sectors, and we have delivered around 7,000 liters of antiseptic alcohol in the Department of Meta. The allocation of social investments follows strict, rigorous, and defined guidelines, as well as control processes for verification and delivery. Now let's move on to the next slide. These new market conditions have significantly impacted industry performance and results. We genuinely don't know how long these conditions will prevail. When compared to previous crises, this one finds the Ecopetrol Group in a stronger operational and financial position. We have a profitable investment portfolio and a level of leverage that provides us the flexibility to navigate this challenging environment. In the first quarter of 2020, we observed a decline in Brent prices of over 65% compared to year-end 2019. For the first quarter, the average Brent price was $51 per barrel, reaching a minimum level of $22 per barrel by the end of the quarter. The measures taken across countries to deal with the pandemic resulted in a contraction of over 6% in global demand for crude during the quarter and a 22% decrease in domestic demand for our products compared to year-end 2019. By the quarter's end, the crude basket spread versus Brent was minus $10.5 per barrel, compared to minus $7.6 per barrel over the same period in 2019. On the other hand, provider weakening and refined product margins showed a 39% improvement compared to the first quarter of 2019. As we look ahead, price levels will depend on the evolution of the pandemic and its effects on demand, as well as the impacts of production curtailments reported by OPEC. We consider that a short-term scenario of Brent prices between $30 and $40 per barrel is appropriate. Now, let's move to the next slide. To address the drop in demand for crude and products, the Ecopetrol Group has optimized its logistics, balanced export levels, and improved refining throughput, as well as crude and fuel storage. Our sales and marketing strategy has been crucial in placing our crude and products in the market and has allowed us to anticipate the export of crudes for the second quarter of 2020. Storage has also been a key contributor in supporting our activities to respond to the drop in demand. The Group currently has a strategic storage capacity of 2.1 million barrels, in addition to normal operational needs. We are assessing alternative floating and onshore storage solutions should they be required. In terms of domestic demand for refined products, we continue to work on managing optimal throughput in our refineries and storage to ensure minimum crude oil levels required for our operations to guarantee domestic supply. Let's move on to the next slide. In March, we announced an intervention plan that includes a set of actions in four areas. The first involves increasing revenues; the second, reducing costs and expenses; the third, cutting the investment plan; and the fourth, ensuring financing and cash protection. In this first stage, we set a target that included a COP 2 trillion reduction in costs and expenses and a $1.2 billion decrease in our 2020 investment plan. We also reached an agreement with our majority shareholder to pay 86% of its dividend during the second half of the year in an effort to protect our cash position. We have already reached and exceeded these goals. We have identified operational expense optimizations amounting to COP 3.5 trillion. In terms of capital expenditures, we are adjusting our investment levels to a range between $2.5 billion and $3 billion, assuming a price level between $30 and $40 per barrel of Brent. Furthermore, to maintain the Company's liquidity position, we have successfully raised around $3.1 billion in funding. To preserve the Company's long-term value, we have maintained our investments in strategic projects that significantly support production and reserves. Now, let's move on to the next slide. On July 31st, 2019, we announced a strategic partnership with Oxy for the development of unconventional assets in an area of approximately 97,000 net acres located in the Permian Midland Basin in the United States. We currently have four producing wells and have completed and fractured 18 additional wells, which began drilling in December last year and are expected to come into production soon. We also defined the Knowledge Transfer Plan for the Group, which includes secondees to enhance our knowledge in unconventional reservoirs. Additionally, in conjunction with our partner and within the framework of the joint venture agreement, we established a technical and financial committee to monitor operator performance and strategize around continued improvement of this partnership. The operational flexibility provided by the agreement allows us to reduce activity in a low-price scenario like the one we are currently experiencing, thus preserving and protecting capital. In the long term, the acreage is heavily protected by existing Oxy production. The new joint venture plan includes investments between $180 million and $200 million. Drilling activities are currently suspended, and we estimate an average yearly production between 4,000 and 5,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for Ecopetrol. One of the key advantages of short-cycle assets is their potential to be reactivated quickly in better market conditions. Let's continue to the next slide to review some of the main milestones for the first quarter of 2020. Despite challenging market conditions, we achieved a net income, including impairments, of COP 133 billion during the first quarter and an EBITDA of COP 5.3 trillion. In our exploration campaign, we and our partners completed the drilling of three wells in Colombia and drilled the Gato do Mato-4 appraisal well, located in Brazil's Pre-Salt. Production for the quarter reached 735,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day despite security events and market conditions. The midstream segment maintained its operational stability. In the downstream segment, the average throughput for both refineries was 345,000 barrels per day, and the refining gross margin was $9.5 per barrel. During the first quarter, Ruby Canyon Engineering verified the reduction of an additional 178,000 tons of CO2 equivalent. The comparative bidding for the San Fernando Solar Park began through a Power Purchase Agreement, with an installed capacity of 50 megawatts, making it the largest self-generating solar park in the country. Finally, I would like to highlight that we conducted the first-ever 100% virtual General Shareholders Meeting in compliance with all government measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. I will now hand over the floor to Alberto Consuegra, who will discuss our main operational milestones during the quarter.

Thanks, Felipe. Operational results for the first quarter were stable despite an atypical industrial environment. We advanced with the maturity of the Cosecha and Jaspe discoveries, which gained commercial viability and were relocated to production. We also applied to the National Hydrocarbons Agency for commercial viability regarding the Andina discovery, and we are assessing the commercial viability of Andina Norte. During the first quarter of 2020, cumulative production from our exploration assets reached 347,000 barrels of oil equivalent, as a result of extensive tests performed on the Boranda, Andina, Esox, and Bullerengue discoveries. By the end of the first quarter, five wells were executing drilling activities; however, due to the health emergency, those wells were guided to a safe stage, and operations are currently suspended. Regarding our planned activities abroad in 2020, our partner shale completed the drilling of the Gato do Mato-4 well ahead of expectations. Currently, Ecopetrol is finalizing the entrance procedures into the project. I want to highlight the implementation of the petrotechnical IT project, which has permitted our personnel to consistently conduct their activities from home. This advancement has facilitated the identification and development of exploratory opportunities. Now let's move to the next slide to discuss cost production results. The Ecopetrol Group's production reached 735,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. This production level was enabled by successful drilling campaigns in the Rubiales and Yarugui fields and through the secondary enhanced recovery program in Chichimene and Castilla. The reversal of Pauto and Florena fields on February 29th, which were operated by Equion, contributed an additional 1,400 barrels from the joint venture with Oxy in the Permian Basin. During the period, production was affected mainly due to public order and security incidents, as well as a decline in gas sales linked to operational aspects at the Cartagena Refinery, paired with decreased national demand from March 17th onward due to the health emergency, which caused a significant reduction in mobility and refinery consumption amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. We have worked to maximize the value of our production outputs, our synergies as an integrated company, and the operational expense optimizations announced in March, allowing most of the Group's production to sustain a yearly average of $29 per barrel. However, wells and fields that have not met sustainability criteria, or have had adjustments to investments by Ecopetrol and its partners, have been temporarily closed, leading to estimated lower production levels in the second quarter of between 660,000 and 680,000 barrels of oil equivalent. Let's move on to the next slide to discuss gas initiatives. Gas production in the first quarter of the year surged to 138,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and contributed to nearly 10% of upstream revenues. To offset the lower internal consumption and gas demand, we developed a commercial strategy to sell surplus gas to the thermoelectric sector from the Guajira, Cusiana, and Cupiagua fields. Gas remains a strategic priority, highlighting three themes: a smooth integration process between Invercolsa and its controlled companies with Ecopetrol, maintaining operational continuity, and achieving a successful legal and financial transition. Approval of the transaction between Hocol and Chevron for participation in the Chuchupa and Ballena fields in La Guajira department was granted. The operational transfer took place on April 30th. No gas-related projects have been canceled as part of the announced CapEx adjustments by the Company. However, some planned investments for 2020 have been postponed. Let's move to the next slide to discuss advances and efficiencies. We continue to pursue efficiency improvements in various areas, including the optimization of diluent consumption, thanks to our crude oil transport strategy, which utilizes higher viscosity and synergies across sectors. The performance contribution of our refineries to the upstream segment is noteworthy, supplying 12,000 barrels per day of Nafta utilized as crude and diluent. The built-in Nafta produced by the Cartagena refinery meets dilution requirements of certain Ecopetrol fields and has lower volatility, resulting in lower losses and reduced gas inhalation risk. The increase in supply of those Naftas has provided savings of $3.7 million between January and March 2020, primarily due to lower rates compared to imported products. The lifting cost was $8.2 per barrel, achieving reductions via the exchange rate's effect, which compensated for increased charges from contracted services, energy charges, and higher liquid production. In going forward with the announced OpEx efficiencies, we expect lifting costs to decrease throughout the year, leveraging strategies in contract optimization and prioritized activities. We obtained savings in drilling and completion investments of around COP 188 billion during the first quarter. Now, let's move on to the next slide to discuss the results of the midstream segment. Crude transport saw a slight reduction compared to the first quarter of 2019, mainly attributable to lower oil production nationwide and a decrease in crude oil deliveries in the Southern systems due to moving barrels toward other systems. Notably, the transportation of refined products has been impacted by the mandatory national lockdown. In the last 11 days of the quarter, an average of 165,000 barrels per day were transported via our systems. In March, we began the process of strategic storage within our crude oil infrastructure and network to ensure operational continuity of our production.

Thanks, Alberto. In response to the market situation, our refineries maintained a disciplined approach regarding integrity and efficiency to adapt operations through measures such as scheduled shutdowns and adjustments in unit throughputs, rescheduling maintenance, and additional storage for crude oil, components, and products. During the first quarter of 2020, the Cartagena refinery achieved a throughput of 146,000 barrels per day, impacted by an operational event and demand conditions. The Barrancabermeja refinery maintained stable operational performance, with an average throughput of 199,000 barrels per day. However, both the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries experienced decreases of 6% and 19%, respectively, compared to the previous year due to market conditions. Esenttia demonstrated excellent financial safety and operational performance during the first quarter of 2020, improving margins in a favorable pricing environment for our raw materials and market demand for regional products. I will now give the floor to Jaime Caballero, who will share the Group's key financial results.

Thanks, Alberto. The challenging market conditions impacted the first quarter's net income, which reached COP 133 billion. The decrease compared to net income for the first quarter of 2019 can be explained by several factors: first, a negative variation of COP 740 billion due to lower prices and a higher average exchange rate on revenues and purchases; second, a positive variation of COP 137 billion from the additional sales of 21,000 barrels per day in the first quarter; third, COP 1.2 trillion of higher cost expenses and depreciation, depletion, and amortization charges before implementing austerity measures, owing to stronger CapEx execution; fourth, certain non-recurrent charges of COP 683 billion, primarily the recognition of the fair value of crude and product inventories and the unrealized loss in mark-to-market valuation of our financial portfolio; fifth, a COP 164 billion increase from higher interest payments on the Group's dollar-denominated debt and the impact of exchange rate fluctuations resulting from the Colombian peso's devaluation against the U.S. dollar. Considering all these effects, net income would have been COP 1.1 trillion before impairments. Given the current market conditions, the Company performed an impairment test on substantial long-term assets, which resulted in recognizing an impairment expense of COP 932 billion net of taxes. The upstream segment accounted for 42% of that amount while the downstream accounted for 58%. It's essential to highlight that these impairment charges did not result in cash outflows and could potentially be reversed in the future. Now, please turn to the next slide to view the Group's key performance indicators. The EBITDA margin was 34.9% due to lower crude and product prices and increased costs and expenses throughout the quarter. The benefits of being an integrated company were reflected in the larger relative EBITDA contribution from the downstream and midstream segments compared to the first quarter of 2019, whereas the upstream segment contributed less. The net income breakeven was $39.7 per barrel. With the implementation of OpEx and CapEx optimization measures, this ratio is expected to trend downward below $30 per barrel. ROACE was 12.2%, aligned with the Company's expectations. Now, let's proceed to the next slide on the business group's cash flow. The Company's cash position remains solid for the first quarter of the year, closing at COP 11.7 trillion. Cash flow from operations totaled COP 2.6 trillion, including changes in working capital. Investment outflows reached COP 3.5 trillion for the CapEx program. Financing outflows amounted to COP 1 trillion, which includes COP 0.4 trillion for dividend payments to minority shareholders from the midstream subsidiaries and COP 0.6 trillion for capital and debt service payments. Net inflows amounted to COP 1.5 trillion, primarily due to investment portfolio registrations aimed at fulfilling the Company's payment commitments amid lower operating revenue generation. The final cash position of COP 11.7 trillion comprises cash and cash equivalents of COP 8.8 trillion and the short and long-term investment portfolio of COP 2.9 trillion. To further strengthen its cash position, in April, Ecopetrol disbursed all available resources from the contingent credit line contracted with Scotiabank and Mizuho Bank and subscribed additional short-term financing totaling $1.1 billion equivalent. We also issued a 10-year bond in international markets, which was 2.5 times oversubscribed, netting $2 billion. Including this additional leverage, the gross debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.6 times reported for Q1 would escalate to 2 times. Our current cash scenario does not foresee additional debt in 2020. Lastly, on April 23, the Company paid dividends corresponding to 2019 net income to its minority shareholders, along with the first installment to the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, totaling approximately COP 1.2 trillion. Please go to the next slide to view the projected short-term financial framework. The price scenarios currently established for 2020 anticipate Brent in the $30 to $40 range. Consequently, Ecopetrol has taken actions to reduce costs and expenses by COP 3.5 trillion, with potential further reductions up to COP 4.5 trillion. The investment plan has been prioritized and adjusted, with projections now estimating a range between $2.5 billion and $3 billion for the full year. The Company has modified its capital discipline criteria in light of lower price expectations in the medium-term and is ensuring that all produced barrels remain profitable at prices below $30 per barrel. All these measures aim to provide cash and net income breakevens below $30 per barrel. However, lower EBITDA generation and increased indebtedness will likely result in a temporary rise in the estimated gross debt to EBITDA ratio, which could range between 3 and 3.8 times by year-end. With that, I will hand over to the President for his closing remarks.

Thanks, Jaime. Certainly, the current environment and the measures implemented to address it will impact the targets established in our 2020-2022 business plan, which will be reviewed and adjusted to reflect the current price scenario. We will provide an update to you regarding this plan during the second half of the year. In the meantime, we have adopted a short-term financial and operational framework, providing the best estimates of pertinent business metrics for the second quarter of the year, as outlined in the presentation. These figures align with the short-term financial framework where protecting the Company's cash balance and capital discipline are paramount. We will continue to revise these numbers as the situations with demand and prices evolve. To summarize the key messages from today's presentation: first, we are fully committed to our employees' safety and maintaining operational excellence. Second, we have implemented prompt, decisive actions demonstrating flexibility and resilience to confront this crisis. We have adapted our short-term financial framework to ensure profitable operations and a positive cash flow in our Brent price scenario between $30 and $40 per barrel. Third, we have prioritized those strategic projects, which will secure our long-term vision and generate value for our shareholders. Thank you again for participating in this call. Given the circumstances, we genuinely appreciate your presence today. I will now open the floor for questions and answers.

We have adapted our short-term financial framework to ensure profitable operations and a positive cash flow in our Brent price scenario between $30 and $40 per barrel. We have prioritized strategic projects that will secure our long-term vision and generate value for our shareholders. Thank you for participating in this call; we genuinely appreciate your presence today. I will now open the floor for questions and answers.

Thanks for the question. To take a step back, we have stated that our business plan for the year and for the next couple of years remains uncertain. Once we begin to implement these necessary adjustments that we've executed swiftly and decisively, we will return to market discussions in the second half of the year to showcase our long-term perspectives. This would be the first part of the response. I believe we need to consider all ongoing factors as we reassess price expectations, the medium and long-term outlook, and the potential future distribution of dividends, which must adhere to our current policy of distributing 40% to 60% of net income determined by the AGM taking place in March next year. Therefore, we must finalize the necessary work determining the broader plan and make our considerations known during the AGM regarding any future dividends.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Santander. How are refining operations in May? Were they significantly reduced?

Sorry about that. Did you catch my question? Yes, I understood your question. Looking at the refineries, the Cartagena normally runs around 150,000 to 155,000 barrels per day, but we've been operating it at approximately 110,000 barrels. For the Barranca refinery, which usually runs between 220,000 and 230,000 barrels, we've been maintaining runs at about 115,000 barrels. Over the weekend, we've increased the runs to 141,000 barrels. While this represents a modest increase, it is significant because it marks a 22% uptick over the levels we had seen in previous weeks. Utilization has indeed been reduced primarily as we adapt to the demand figures we've encountered, both in the country and in global markets. However, it's important to note that we are seeing some recovery trends forward. Thank you for your question, Rodrigo.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Gideon Levy at Morgan Stanley.

The first question I have is on the midstream business. Can you tell us the level of discounts being negotiated with independent producers? Secondly, if you could provide an update on shale pilots in Colombia. I understand they remain strategic for the Company despite the current lower oil prices, but are we still looking to start activities later this year? Any updates on regulatory matters would also be appreciated. Thank you.

Thanks. I will start with the second part of your question regarding the pilots, and then I will ask Milena to elaborate on the midstream business in more detail. Regarding the pilots, the 'Proyectos Piloto de Investigación Integral' are a strategic priority for the Company, acknowledged as critical for the country. The government has been working on technical procedures amidst the ongoing crisis, and we continue preparing internally to conduct these pilots as soon as feasible. We foresee ourselves moving forward with these plans in the next year, remaining optimistic about progress despite the current operational difficulties. I'll now hand it over to Milena to address the midstream questions.

Thank you, Felipe, and good morning, Gideon. Regarding our midstream segment, we have mainly provided temporary discounts to assist producers during this specific low-price period. It's critical to note that these discounts are temporary and will be reassessed based on prevailing market conditions. For certain pipelines, we have established volumetric requirements, meaning a minimum volume must move through our system for discounts to apply. Additionally, our tariffs are based in dollars, and the discounts implemented correspondingly vary due to the impact of FX devaluation. For April, we have observed various discounts across our systems: approximately 10% in the Cenit system, 5.5% in the Oleoducto de los Llanos, and over 8% in the Oleoducto de Colombia system. Along with these discounts, we have offered to finance up to 50% of transportation costs over the next two months, with financing terms ranging from six to twelve months. These measures are designed to help our producers through cash flow concerns during this low-price period. It's important to clarify that these are discretionary measures, not regulatory requirements. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from HSBC, from Lily Yang. It's a question for the upstream segment. How much exploratory CapEx of the $2.5 billion does not impact proven reserves and production levels, and how will it be allocated? Also, is this figure inclusive of the Oxy JV? Is it possible to further cut CapEx if needed, considering that we've seen a past figure of around minus $2 billion annually?

Thanks, Lily, and good morning. To clarify, we signaled an investment range of $2.5 billion to $3 billion, with around $300 million to $350 million allocated to exploratory CapEx within those figures. In Q1, we successfully drilled three exploration wells, and several others have been safely postponed due to current health protocols, with anticipation to restart operations in the coming weeks. We recognize the need to adjust the total number of exploration wells over time but will continue our exploration activities moving forward. Regarding CapEx prioritization, we've made considerable cuts, with approximately 80% of the $2.5 billion to $3 billion earmarked for E&P in the upstream segment. In the case of our JV with Oxy, short-cycle investments in unconventional assets enable us to efficiently ramp up operations. Last year's drilling efforts have produced several wells, and we expect to end the year with around 21 to 23, adjusting our gross CapEx from $800 million down to $180 million to $200 million. Overall, while we've performed a major reduction in CapEx, this project should reflect a minimal impact on production capability for the future.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Scotiabank, posed by Gavin Wylie. With Ecopetrol's robust balance sheet, are you considering any countercyclical acquisition opportunities? Or is your top priority currently capital preservation? What is the significance of inorganic expansion internationally in the U.S. and Brazil versus investment within Colombia?

Gavin, thank you for your question. It's vital to emphasize that cash protection currently ranks as our highest priority, and ensuring the health and safety of our employees remains paramount. As we safeguard our cash, we have acted decisively and quickly to set a solid foundation amid this uncertainty. There may be future opportunities on both the divestment and acquisition fronts; economic crises often reveal prospects not previously available. We will continue to monitor opportunities, but our immediate focus must remain on preserving cash and navigating through this ongoing crisis. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from HSBC, posed by Lily Yang. Regarding the selling price of your crude basket, can you elaborate on the reasons behind this quarter's higher differential to Brent? If there have been any changes in geographical markets or trends in global crude trade flows, any insights would be appreciated.

Thank you, Lily, for the question. In 1Q 2020, the average Brent price was $51 per barrel, while March featured a significant drop with Brent prices falling from around $64 to $51. Our crude differential shows a year-on-year increase from $7.6 to $10.5. Over the last several years, we have consolidated our relationships with key clients in Asia, primarily in China, while also pursuing opportunities in India and locating some refineries in the U.S. Approximately 50% of our exports go to China; we have adeptly placed our barrels in these refineries while ensuring forward contracts are fulfilled. We have effectively aligned our deliveries ahead of schedule for April, May, and June, ensuring we meet our obligations and maintain consistent production in Colombia. Moving forward, we will continue to leverage our capacities in this direction while focusing on the benefits of our established contracts.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Bank of America, from Frank McGann. Could you provide further detail on incidents you mentioned concerning other refineries during the quarter?

Thank you, Frank. I will now ask Walter Canova to address the incidents in detail.

Thank you, Felipe, and thank you, Frank, for your question. In the first quarter, we experienced stable operations at Barrancabermeja, interrupted by a few minor plant shutdowns during the quarter. At the Cartagena refinery, we reported an incident on January 17 that affected one of our hydrogen-producing units. We've since conducted mechanical repairs amid the COVID-19 restrictions and estimate that the unit should restart in the coming weeks. In Barrancabermeja, operations remained stable, although we faced minimal shutdowns. We plan to complete repairs on the hydrogen unit by May 18 and aim to normalize everything shortly thereafter.

Our next question comes from Bruno Amorim from Goldman Sachs. What will be the impact of the lower CapEx in 2020 on the production outlook for 2021? If you maintain CapEx between COP 2.5 billion and COP 3 billion, followed by a return to the previous plan for 2021 and beyond, how will that affect projections?

Thank you for your question, Bruno. We mentioned earlier that in the second half of the year, we will present our updated business plan to you. We need to account for the major reductions in demand and pricing we have seen lately; the full impacts will be clearer as we progress into Q2 and beyond. I can assure you that we are monitoring all developments closely and will provide you with a comprehensive overview when we have our mid-term planning updated. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Santander, posed by Almeda. Thank you for your presentation. Could you discuss your current refining operations? At what level of utilization have you been running since the past weeks in April and into May?

I'll defer to Walter for more detail. However, in the past few weeks, if you consider the context, the Barrancabermeja refinery typically functions between 220,000 and 230,000 barrels per day. In recent weeks, we've operated at levels around 115,000 barrels; however, we've recently increased operations to around 141,000 barrels. Thus, we dropped down to roughly 50% of capacity, and now, as demand is slowly rising, we are ramping back up. In Cartagena, which consistently runs at 150,000 to 155,000 barrels, we've been operating at approximately 110,000 barrels. We’ve adapted operations effectively to meet both current levels of market demand and ongoing conditions. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Frank McGann from Bank of America. How much flexibility is there long-term in Europe regarding Occidental's adjusted CapEx? Could capital expenditures remain low for an extended period?

Thank you for the question, Frank. The degree of flexibility is highly dependent on prevailing prices. The short-cycle properties we manage in the Permian region provided us the ability in December to swiftly ramp up operations, drill, frac, and bring them online with excellent operational results. We have confidence in the quality of the reservoirs and the performance of the operational team at Oxy. While the current cessation of active drilling continues, we successfully advanced completion and fracking. We foresee ending the year with approximately 21 to 23 wells. As we assess potential resumption of activity at an appropriate time, we are in constant updates with our partner on the key milestones necessary to restart efficiently. Notably, prior to the crisis, our Permian assets had a wonderful position with low breakeven costs; this was noted at around $35 WTI, enabling operational confidence. Oxy's efforts to improve efficiencies and optimize processes have been commendable and will inform our decisions moving forward. Thank you once again for your question.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Vicente Falanga from Bradesco BBI. How will you account for the financing of transportation costs for Colombian producers?

Thank you, Vicente. Milena will break this down for us. Milena, please go ahead.

Certainly. Our approach toward financing will effectively split into two distinct components: one related to discounts, impacting our top-line revenue, effectively reducing it; the second concerning the financing itself. So the transportation costs' invoicing remains within our top-line figures, and we will correspondingly record receivables from each producer. The financing incorporates an interest rate around 1.5%, which we foresee as interest income in our accounts. That's our approach in a preliminary stance; to summarize, revenue figures won't change, while we anticipate an increase in interest income corresponding to the interest portion on amounts invoiced. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Eric Arakawa from Mackenzie Investment. How do you view gas demand over the last two weeks in Colombia, the U.S., and Brazil?

Thank you, Eric. I will invite Alberto Consuegra to provide more insights. Overall, in Colombia, we're experiencing a gas demand decrease of approximately 25,000 barrels per day, primarily connected to industrial contractions and limited transportation use. However, we are observing a modest return on gas demand. Alberto, do you have further details?

Thank you, Felipe. Good morning, Eric. As Felipe noted, 97% of our gas revenue is derived from Colombia, where we have around 90% of the demand secured through take-or-pay contracts with fixed pricing in dollars. With regards to Brazil, the situation remains challenging with no LNG imports recorded in April or May. In the U.S., demand remains subdued overall, yet we have detected slight recovery in states like Texas, Louisiana, and Michigan. In Colombia, we have recently witnessed a contraction of around 27,000 barrels per day, but in the past couple of weeks, gains have been made from increased gas sales in the thermal electrical sector. That's a summary of what we've observed in terms of gas demand. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Pablo. What will be the impact of CapEx cuts and OpEx optimizations on production for the upcoming years?

Hi, Pablo, good morning, and I appreciate your question. We've highlighted our guidance for Q2 and the year regarding anticipated impacts on production levels. As we navigate the coming weeks and months, we will continue refining our updated business plan, which we intend to share with you in the second half of the year. We'll gain more clarity on potential impacts as we progress. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Luiz Carvalho from UBS. Hi, Felipe, and team, I hope your families and the Ecopetrol team are safe. First of all, thanks for your transparency regarding production, free cash flow, and income per cubits—very useful. I'd like to acknowledge that it was a comment from Luiz. I will continue with the next question.

Thanks, Luiz. I appreciate your kind words and thoughts.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Eric Arakawa Mackenzie Investment. Thanks for the call and congratulations on the resilient results amid these difficult times. How has oil demand behaved in the past two weeks as economies begin to open? Can you share any important lessons learned during these challenging times?

Eric, thank you for your question. We've observed a gradual demand increase recently, although it's marginal. As previously highlighted, we cut our refinery runs from 370,000-380,000 barrels to around 225,000-230,000 barrels. In recent days, we've added back around 25,000 barrels more of refinery capacity. Hence, we are adapting operations to align with rising demand while also adhering to essential protocols. A significant takeaway during this time has been our ability to adapt quickly. For instance, during this remote work period, we rapidly established a biological molecular lab in Barrancabermeja for employee testing. This rapid adjustment reflects a broader capacity for agility and innovation demonstrated by our team. As a country, we face considerable uncertainty ahead, but I believe we need to demonstrate empathy and humanity as we weather this storm together. Ecopetrol sees itself as a critical component of Colombia's backbone, and we will work collectively toward recovery. Once again, thank you for your participation in this call. Your insights, questions, and engagement are greatly appreciated. We've adeptly navigated this unprecedented crisis from health, economic, and social standpoints, and strengthened our Company. We will continue seeking effective strategies to ensure our long-term stability. Thank you.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.