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Entergy Louisiana, LLC Q2 FY2022 Earnings Call

Entergy Louisiana, LLC (ELC)

Earnings Call FY2022 Q2 Call date: 2022-08-03 Concluded

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8-K earnings release

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Operator

Thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Entergy Corporation Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Release. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, today's program may be recorded. And now, I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Bill Abler, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Bill Abler Head of Investor Relations

Good morning and thank you for joining us. We will begin today with comments from Entergy's Chairman and CEO, Leo Denault; and then Drew Marsh, our CFO, will review results. In an effort to accommodate everyone who has questions, we request that each person ask no more than two questions. In today's call, management will make certain forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to a number of factors, which are set forth in our earnings release, our slide presentation, and our SEC filings. Entergy does not assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Management will also discuss non-GAAP financial information. Reconciliations to the applicable GAAP measures are included in today's press release and slide presentation, both of which can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website. And now, I will turn the call over to Leo.

Leo Denault Chairman

Thank you, Bill. Good morning, everyone. Today, we are reporting strong second quarter adjusted earnings of $1.78 per share. Robust economic activity and supportive fundamentals drove favorable sales trends in our commercial and industrial sectors and hot weather drove increased residential and commercial sales. We are also seeing growing residential customer counts supported by strengthening wage and employment data. Given the results to date as well as our view of the balance of the year, we are tracking towards the upper half of our 2022 guidance range and remain squarely on pace to achieve our longer-term 6% to 8% growth outlooks. While we're pleased with the strength of our business, I want to acknowledge that, due to global factors impacting natural gas prices, together with high electric usage caused by extreme heat, our customers, like many across the country, are receiving electric bills that are much higher than is typical even for this time of year. This is top of mind, as we continue to achieve outcomes that build upon our proven track record of results. We executed on the important customer, regulatory, operational, and financial deliverables that continue to improve quality across our business. As we discussed at Analyst Day, the attributes of Entergy's business align well with premium utilities. Given the bill pressures customers are facing, we continue to take strong and meaningful measures to help ease the burden of electric costs. Many of our past actions and investments are mitigating the impacts of high natural gas prices for our customers today. The investments we made over the last eight years and more efficient generation and renewable resources have lowered fuel costs by nearly $500 million annually compared to what they would otherwise have been. Going forward, investments in renewables and highly efficient generating resources, like the Orange County Advanced Power Station, will further reduce customer exposure to natural gas prices. Our ongoing participation in MISO has provided more than $250 million per year of savings for customers, and these savings increased during periods of higher fuel prices. Our top quartile O&M performance and customer-centric investments have delivered meaningful value for customers. We placed extra importance in helping customers who need it the most, with programs like the Power to Care, and initiatives to get LIHEAP assistance to customers that qualify. Otherwise, we help customers manage affordability through products like level billing, deferred payment plans, as well as analytics and AMI-driven usage alerts. To further address bill challenges today, we are working with our regulators on additional solutions. We've agreed to defer fuel recovery to mitigate fuel price impacts on customers' monthly bills. We are also waiving late fees for eligible customers and credit card fees for all residential customers. We've committed $10 million in shareholder donations for residential bill payment assistance programs. Additionally, given our strong industrial and commercial sales and hot weather, we are utilizing our flex program to increase spending on initiatives designed to lower customer costs and improve reliability. As I mentioned, one of the largest drivers of higher customer bills has been the increase in natural gas prices. Looking ahead, the forward NYMEX curve indicates significant gas price declines over the next 12 to 24 months, and we are seeing fundamentals that support that trajectory. While weather across the nation has driven up natural gas demand this year, causing inventories to be tight, US gas production is tracking roughly three Bcf per day ahead of last year. The US has ample natural gas resources that can be produced in shale plays at prices consistent with the long-term NYMEX curve. Over the last year, we've seen independent producer activity ramp up in Haynesville and Permian Basin shale plays. Haynesville gas rig counts have increased nearly 50%. Increased gas production is also reflected by higher oil rig counts in West Texas, where high levels of associated gas from Permian Basin shale represent significant natural gas supply additions. The old adage that nothing solves high prices like high prices is certainly true. And while we can't control commodity prices, we see relief for customers in sight. Our recent SERI settlement represents another way we have worked with our regulators to mitigate risk while also helping reduce customers' bills. In late June, we announced a settlement with the MPSC that resolved Entergy Mississippi's 40% economic interest in complaints against SERI. The settlement is a big step forward in resolving risks surrounding system energy and improving our overall regulatory environment. The settlement also comes at an opportune time to provide much-needed bill relief to Mississippi customers. Entergy Mississippi would use the cash payment from this settlement to provide immediate bill relief and help offset fuel impacts on customer bills. The Mississippi Public Service Commission recognized the opportunity to deliver meaningful value to customers today rather than wait for an uncertain outcome potentially years down the road. Looking beyond Mississippi, this settlement sets a marker and represents a catalyst opportunity to drive progress with the other commissions on broader SERI litigation resolution. Beyond SERI, regulatory progress was made at all of our utilities. We have submitted our annual FRP filings in Arkansas, New Orleans, and Louisiana. And as planned, Entergy Texas filed a rate case reflecting the significant investments we've made across transmission, distribution, and generation resources to better serve our Texas customers. We also demonstrated strong operational quality in the quarter. We have a flexible, diverse, and reliable portfolio of generation and grid infrastructure that allowed us to reliably deliver power to customers during extreme weather. In fact, all of the states we serve recorded triple-digit temperatures during the month of June, and Entergy's system set a new peak load in MISO. Consistent with the accelerated resilience plan we laid out in Analyst Day, Entergy New Orleans made its initial resilience and hardening filing. The filing included $1.5 billion of hardening projects over the next 10 years, including options for several microgrids spaced in neighborhoods throughout the city. All projects proposed create customer benefits. We will work with the City Council and other stakeholders to identify the optimal set of projects for Entergy New Orleans and we'll make a formal filing later this year to seek approval for these projects. We are working towards similar resilience filings in Entergy Louisiana in the fourth quarter and at Entergy Texas next year. These filings and stakeholder engagement are important steps toward our 10-year accelerated resilience plan. Our plan will reduce risk for our customers and for Entergy, both in terms of reduced outages and lower storm costs and further improve our operational and balance sheet quality. Another important accomplishment is the sale of Palisades to Holtec. This represents the last major milestone in our multiyear plan to exit the merchant nuclear power business. Turning to growth, overall, economic activity in our region was vibrant during the second quarter. Our commercial customers continue to show strong recovery from the pandemic. We've seen positive economic indicators for our residential customers. For example, Louisiana wages increased more than 6% in 2021, which exceeded the national average. Further, Louisiana's unemployment rate hit a 50-year low of 3.8% this past June. Economic development and expansion across our region is robust. And as we've discussed, Entergy is a major facilitator of this growth. Across our system, residential customer accounts continue to grow and show energy efficiency gains. Both of these trends drive improved affordability. We had significant industrial growth this past quarter, which drives economic gains for the regions we serve and the load growth helps keep bills low for all customers. As we discussed at Analyst Day, Entergy has a robust and unique growth story, stemming from our industrial customers, with an expected 6% compound annual growth rate over the next five years. Commodity spreads and geopolitical conditions combined with the inherent Gulf Coast stability and competitive advantages are driving new customers to locate in our region and our existing customers to expand their businesses. Over the next five years, we have line of sight to the growth we outlined with a robust pipeline of projects. As we sit today, there are 100 identified projects in the pipeline. Roughly half of these projects have already made final investment decisions comprising almost 10.5 terawatt-hours of annual load potential by 2026, further highlighting our growth opportunity. Sempra Infrastructure entered into an MOU with Entergy Texas for its Port Arthur LNG plant. Phase one of this facility includes two LNG trains with gas turbine compression, representing 270 megawatts of new load. Phase two would add two additional trains with plans for electric compression that would represent approximately 600 megawatts of new load. The Port Arthur project demonstrates the strong basis for the industrial load growth we expect over the next decade. As outlined in the MOU, Entergy Texas is developing options to accelerate the deployment of new renewable generation and to increase power supply resiliency. If Sempra's Port Arthur energy were to be supplied with 100% solar, it would represent more than 2,500 megawatts of new solar generating resources. Projects like Sempra Port Arthur highlight industrial expansion, with customers striving to grow in a carbon-neutral manner. For our broader industrial customer base to achieve their decarbonization goals, it goes well beyond mitigating emissions from business growth. They must decarbonize their existing operations. As we've previously discussed, Entergy's industrial customers have significant carbon emissions, representing 15% of the nation's industrial emissions, and the majority of our customers have aggressive decarbonization goals. For utility investors interested in driving decarbonization, Entergy represents a unique rate of change investment opportunity. Over the last quarter, we continued to make decarbonization progress for Entergy and our customers. Construction of Entergy Mississippi's Sunflower Solar Station was completed. This 100-megawatt facility represents the first step towards Entergy Mississippi's 1,000-megawatt EDGE program, which will support economic development in the state. In May, the Arkansas Public Service Commission approved our Green Promise tariff that offers 100 megawatts of capacity from Entergy Arkansas, Searcy, and Chicot Solar resources for allocation to customers who signed letters of intent. We've seen robust customer demand for green products, and this program is already fully subscribed. We intend to grow this tariff to accommodate the demand. Entergy Texas continued to move the Orange County Advanced Power Station through the regulatory review and approval process. When it comes online, OCAPS will have the lowest heat rate of any combined-cycle plant in our fleet and will immediately provide fuel savings, reliability, and environmental benefits for our customers. This hydrogen-capable facility will provide further benefits over time through fuel diversity and long-duration clean energy storage. At our Analyst Day, we laid out a clear plan and path to support our customers' significant growth potential over the next decade. This plan calls for greater investment in clean resources and accelerated resilience to meet our customers' demands, while we maintain our focus on affordability and drive continued quality gains across all aspects of our business, consistent with our premier utility objective. Entergy has an excellent near-term growth opportunity. When considering the broader electrification and decarbonization potential, our long-term growth opportunity is even better. We are excited about our future and proud of the progress we are making towards achieving it. I will now turn the call over to Drew to review our first quarter results, as well as our financial strength and outlooks.

Thank you, Leo. Good morning, everyone. As Leo said, we've had a strong start to 2022, supported by our second quarter results. As you can see on slide three, our adjusted earnings were $1.78 per share. Our results included retail sales growth fueled by industrial growth and much hotter than normal weather. This strong start to the year is enabling us to flex our spending to benefit customers and we are affirming our guidance and longer-term outlooks. For 2022, we expect results within the top half of the range. In addition to EWC results, which included the sale of Palisades, the quarter's results had adjustments that rose out of two issues you've been following closely: storm cost recovery and the partial settlement on system energy cases at FERC. These developments included specific benefits for customers and reduced regulatory risk while the receipt of securitization funds also strengthened our balance sheet. We provide more details on these items in our earnings release. On Slide 4, you'll see the adjusted EPS drivers for the quarter. Retail sales were strong, partly driven by hot weather. Within our service area, cooling degree days were 15% higher than normal. All states in our service area saw above-normal temperatures with Texas experiencing record heat. We also saw strong growth even after excluding the effects of weather. Industrial sales grew approximately 6.5% for the second straight quarter, including higher sales to existing as well as new and expansion customers. For this quarter, many of our major industrial customer segments increased, with chlor alkali and LNG seeing the largest increases. Sales to cogeneration customers were also higher, comprising one-third of the total growth. You can see on Slide 5 that the fundamentals underlying our industrial growth outlook remain strong. In addition to industrial sales being higher than last year, they were also higher than our guidance expectation. The largest driver was cogeneration sales. As a reminder, we don't rely on above-average cogeneration sales in our outlook. For the quarter, we also saw higher operating expenses from the effects of our ongoing customer-centric investments as well as higher other O&M, driven in part by increased spending on power delivery and customer service. This represents the beginning of the flex spending that Leo referenced, to achieve customer outcomes for improved affordability, reliability, and customer experience. The results for EWC are summarized on Slide 6. The drivers for that business continue to be the shutdown and sale of our merchant nuclear plants. Moving to Slide 7. Operating cash flow for the quarter was $278 million, a decline compared to last year. The most significant driver was natural gas prices, which were more than 150% higher than the same quarter a year ago. Our deferred fuel regulatory asset increased by more than $600 million in the quarter. We have taken steps to help customers manage fuel costs in their bills, including delaying more than $300 million of fuel collections and the SERI settlement in Mississippi among other things that we have discussed. As we also said, the good news is the forward curve calls for natural gas prices to decline. And we are seeing fundamental indicators that support this outlook. Turning to credit and liquidity on Slide 8. I'll start with our net liquidity, which is strong at $3.7 billion. That includes $323 million in storm escrows, which is important as we move through the summer. During the quarter, we received securitization proceeds in both Louisiana and Texas. As we have done with previous Louisiana securitizations, we have guaranteed savings for our customers, sharing value created from the efficient securitization structure. The guaranteed amount is about $100 million and that could eventually be higher. As you know, we reached the settlement with the Mississippi Public Service Commission for their 40% share of the SERI cases. If we are able to settle with all parties on the same terms, that would total $588 million, including Mississippi's share. Those refunds would temporarily impact FFO when cash moves to customers. The financing cost and other elements of the settlement, such as ROE and capital structure, would remain on an ongoing basis. We have not reached a settlement with all parties. So without knowing the details, we have yet to decide how a full settlement would be funded. Regardless of how it's funded, our long-term objectives remain the same: achieving or exceeding 15% cash flow to debt, and 6% to 8% growth in our adjusted EPS. Any amount that we were to fund through equity could be easily achieved quietly and cost-effectively through the ATM program. I would also like to highlight that we have published a sustainable financing framework, which allows us to issue green, social, and sustainability-directed financings to fund eligible projects that drive our business objectives, including our energy transition and resilience strategy. We engaged S&P Global to provide a second-party opinion, and they have affirmed the framework’s alignment with accepted principles for these types of financing instruments. Both the framework and opinion can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. A summary of our progress against our equity plan is shown on slide 9. In the second quarter, we reduced our equity needs by $250 million through our ATM program. That leaves a little more than $300 million remaining in the equity plan to be executed between now and the end of 2024. Slide 10 shows our guidance and outlook, which we are affirming today. We provided a thorough update at our Analyst Day in June, which offered a clear picture of the significant opportunities in front of us. In 2020, we reduced spending significantly in response to lower revenues from the pandemic. For 2022, as noted, we have had a strong first half of the year. Now we are flexing to increase our O&M and other costs to benefit our customers. This includes spending to improve reliability, affordability, and the customer experience. Even with these initiatives, we expect results for the year to be in the top half of our guidance range, consistent with where we've been in the last several years. Regarding longer-term outlooks, one recent item of note not yet reflected is the Inflation Reduction Act. Like everyone else, we are a week into the review. Overall, we are optimistic about the act's ability to create long-term economic benefits for our customers. The production tax credits will support renewable development in nuclear, which will help our customers decarbonize and reduce their exposure to natural gas prices. By leveling the playing field for renewable development with production tax credit transferability and avoidance of normalization, the act allows for greater customer economic benefits through utility ownership that provides long-term operational flexibility and investment optionality. The act encourages emerging technologies like hydrogen and carbon capture that will help our industrial customers decarbonize. CCS and green hydrogen are part of Entergy's sizable clean electrification potential, and our region is uniquely positioned to support these technologies. Finally, we expect that after the first year, most of our customers should see a benefit in their bill from production tax credits in excess of the alternative minimum tax. For Entergy, that looks largely cash flow neutral after the first year, but we'll need to see the final law and work with the federal authorities and, of course, our retail regulators on implementation. In summary, we see the act as a positive. At Analyst Day, we discussed how we are demonstrating strong financial quality. We have a unique and significant sales growth opportunity due to organic industrial growth and decarbonization. We have a robust plan to invest in clean and renewable resources and improve the resilience of our grid. We also have a plan to achieve 6% to 8% EPS growth. And at the same time, we're focused on balance sheet quality and reducing risk. While our employees will always remain focused on our customers and all that we do, they remain world-class at getting things done, with a track record of delivering on our commitments to prove it. We plan to continue that success. And now the Entergy team is available to answer questions.

Operator

Certainly. Our first question comes from Shahriar Pourreza from Guggenheim. Your question please.

Speaker 4

Hi, good morning Leo and team, it's actually Constantine here for Shar. Congrats on a great quarter.

Leo Denault Chairman

Good morning.

Good morning.

Speaker 4

I wanted to start off on the strong results for the quarter and some of the changes in assumptions for 2022 guidance. You're now in the top half, obviously, and you have a big EPS offset for the remainder of the year in the O&M flex category, but whether it keeps looking strong. And how does that potentially set a base for growth in 2023? And maybe just curious on the recurring elements in this slice, and how that carries into 2023 assumptions and contingency.

Sure. This is Drew, and I'll begin while Leo can add later. We anticipate being in the upper half of the range as we assess the impact of our actions. It's encouraging to see significant growth from our customer base, although not all of it is expected to continue consistently. As I mentioned earlier, some of this growth originates from cogeneration, and we expect a more stable cogeneration rate moving forward. Regarding the specific line items you mentioned, we do have increased sales, which come with higher costs, reflecting what you see in the O&M figures. Additionally, we discussed customer initiatives last week, and Leo highlighted some efforts we’re making to support our customers. This is ongoing and is included in our 2022 outlook and guidance. Furthermore, within the O&M, we have various operational aspects to address, notably visitation management and some investments aimed at enhancing reliability and O&M related to those extra investments. We are making investments to improve customer experience, particularly in our contact centers to better assist our customers at this time. While these investments won't primarily affect 2023, they are designed to mitigate risks for that year and beyond by fostering continuous improvement opportunities that will have lasting impacts. Leo, Rod, do you want to add anything?

Leo Denault Chairman

I think that's fair. We're encouraged by the beginning of the year. We're using those results to make sure that we're doing the right things for our customers here and now, and certainly see a lot of reasons why that industrial load growth should continue, not only this year but for years to come, to support our outlook.

Speaker 4

Excellent. That's helpful. And on the litigated process for SERI at FERC. The Mississippi settlement obviously took care of a large portion of the dispute. I think they're one of the major parties, but other parties are less willing to accept those terms in their comments. How should we think about the process and kind of options going forward here? Where the settlement currently has currently structured fit within that longer-term 6% to 8% guidance, are the impacts kind of above or below the midpoint, as they're currently set?

Leo Denault Chairman

Rod, why don't you give them the process and then Drew, you can help out on that.

Speaker 5

Yes. The discussions and negotiations with the other jurisdictions are still in progress. They have publicly responded to the Mississippi filing, but we are unable to comment or provide details about the current status of these negotiations. It is important to note that we are actively engaging with each of those jurisdictions despite their public stance on the Mississippi settlement. Additionally, the FERC trial staff has expressed that they believe the settlement is fair, reasonable, and in the public interest. We view this as a positive basis for our ongoing discussions with each jurisdiction.

Regarding the financial outlook, we have incorporated the ongoing Mississippi settlements. As discussions are still in progress, we will not provide comments on returns on equity, capital structures, or any other details at this time.

Speaker 4

Okay. Perfect. Thanks for taking my questions.

Leo Denault Chairman

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Paul Zimbardo from Bank of America. Your question, please.

Speaker 6

Hi, good morning and thank you.

Leo Denault Chairman

Good morning, Paul.

Good morning, Paul.

Speaker 6

And just to make sure I understand correctly, it sounded like under the draft IRA, you believe the regulated nuclear assets will be eligible for the production tax credits. And just if you could talk about how that could work in the regulated construct. That would be helpful.

Sure. Paul, this is Drew. We do think that they are eligible based on our reading of the act. As you know, our nuclear units do compete in the MISO markets. They bid their power in every day. And so we have a busbar price – a wholesale market price and that's the revenue that comes to the company every day because it ultimately gets netted off in rates and stuff like that through the normal regulatory process. But we do participate in the wholesale power markets every day. And so that's how we believe we'd be eligible.

Speaker 6

Okay. I understand. That makes sense. And then shifting over to coal. And if you could talk about the Texas rate case filing and the new target dates for Nelson and Big Cajun, it seems like you're accelerating there. And just broadly how could some of the more stringent EPA NOX requirements lead to changes in coal timing renewables and related?

Speaker 5

It's Rod. I can frame up the Texas rate case filing. Between October and through the end of the year, you'll see the procedural schedule laid out and I'll direct you to Page 34 of our materials just for some context. But it's about $131 million base rate change in our case, and our proposed ROE is 10.8%, reflecting a 10.5% midpoint with the 30% performance adder with equity ratio around 51%. The procedural schedules laid out as is and certainly reflects the continuing benefit of our transmission, distribution, and generation riders as we move to incorporate OCAPS and other assets in our capital plan.

Yes. And this is Drew. On the coal piece, I'll say it's not really much of a factor in the Texas case right now. And of course, as you know Paul, with high gas prices, there's not a lot of economic appetite to accelerate retirements right now. But I would say that, and you referenced that the new rules that are – that could come out soon that could cause us to make some significant investments in our coal facilities in order to become compliant with that. If those do materialize and they come in within the timeframe that we're already contemplating that could be an accelerator of retirement. We certainly wouldn't make significant large capital investments in those coal plants to satisfy those things on a very short timeframe of benefit. So that would be a consideration on the timeline of our coal plan if and when those rules come about.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you.

Thanks, Paul. And I'll add one more thing. We do not have a lot of control technologies on our coal plants today. And so there would be a lot of incremental investment for us. So I just make sure that that's clear as well.

Speaker 6

Yes, thank you.

Operator

And our next comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan. Your question, please.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning.

Good morning.

Speaker 7

Just want to start off with Entergy New Orleans and the resilience filing there. Have there been any initial reactions that you could share with us or other takeaways, especially as we think about Louisiana and Texas on this front?

Speaker 5

It's Rod. The initial reactions to the filing have been positive. The details will depend on the pace of the investment and the current economic climate, particularly regarding the impact of construction. We expect the council to hold additional technical meetings, with one scheduled for the 18th of this month. Ultimately, the council will guide us to make a filing that aligns with their thoughts, which may become evident by the end of the third quarter or into the fourth. While the reaction has been positive, we should focus on addressing some immediate challenges our customers are facing due to inflation and rising gas prices in New Orleans. This is currently a priority for the council. Overall, we believe the response has been encouraging, and you'll see the council's procedural schedule in the fall outlining our future steps.

Speaker 7

Got it. Yes. That was the next part of the question. Just conversations in Louisiana regarding higher customer bills, as you mentioned in your prepared remarks. What role do you see this playing in discussions about capital expenditure overall, particularly in terms of resiliency given the inflationary pressures you talked about?

Speaker 5

We are focused on the goals related to resiliency discussions. We have postponed the resiliency filing in Louisiana to October to allow us to better develop the benefit case we intend to present to the commission. Louisiana, along with New Orleans and our other areas, is committed to providing immediate relief to our customers, and we are in agreement with the commission regarding the resiliency topic. It is also important to note that the timing of our October resiliency plans for Louisiana does not alter our current strategy. Both the timing and the structure of our capital plan for immediate resiliency expenditures in Louisiana remain the same. We will have more updates as we progress through the summer and advance in the rate formula plans and hurricane season, but early signals indicate that we continue to be very much in line with regulators on the goal of resiliency.

Speaker 7

Got it. That's very helpful. And just a last one if I could here, as it relates to equity needs in 2025 and 2026. While the ATM can satisfy these needs here, just wondering how you think about asset recycling at this point, if this is on the table, or could you speak to broader considerations here?

Yes, thanks Jeremy, it's Drew. We discussed this at Analyst Day, and I believe there isn't much that's changed since then. There is a difference in valuation between private and public capital markets, which leads us to consider this option. However, pursuing it is not straightforward, as we've mentioned previously. Depending on the approach, it may not be as simple as financing equity in public markets, and it could take longer and involve more risk. These are important factors we are considering regarding what we refer to as strategic financing, as it needs to align with our overall strategy.

Speaker 7

Got it. That’s helpful. I will leave there. Thanks.

Thank you.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold from Vertical Research Partners. Your question please.

Speaker 8

Hi. Good morning, guys.

Good morning.

Speaker 8

Can I just ask about the $300 million of fuel you mentioned has been deferred? Is that the full extent of what you plan to do with that particular tool, or is that just what you'll recognize in the second quarter on this June balance sheet?

We have proposed to the retail regulators a delay in the collection of deferred fuel. By the end of the second quarter, the balance sheet reflects an additional $600 million of deferred fuel, with some of it postponed until the fall and some possibly until next year. A significant portion of this is in Louisiana, where we estimate around $130 million, with smaller amounts in other areas.

Speaker 8

So, that's sort of the current proposal across the portfolio, and to the rest of the deferred fuel from the first half of the year we should see that sort of catch up a little quicker.

Well, I would say that this is quite recent. These are deferrals from June and July, and there might even be a bit from August included. So, we are up to date with our thoughts on this. Jonathan, you're asking if we will see a lot more delays? I think we are mostly through the summer now, and I do not expect this to continue into the fall.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then could you just sort of maybe help frame for us a little bit some of the other things you're doing to try and mitigate pressure on customers, maybe sort of put some quantification around that in the context of the fuel deferral number? Is that the biggest thing? I'm guessing it probably is but just curious about what are the other pieces of the strategy.

Speaker 5

Yes, this is Rod. Leo mentioned that the fuel deferral is likely the largest single financial impact across customer classes. However, we are also committing $10 million to bill assistance programs throughout our jurisdictions. There is a moratorium on disconnections in New Orleans, and we are voluntarily extending that to other areas. We are also implementing credit card fee and late fee waivers in different jurisdictions, in addition to the bill payment programs Leo discussed earlier. Our goal is to provide customers with some relief during what we observe as a challenging time, especially in Louisiana and New Orleans, where high usage coincides with high gas prices. One key difference in Louisiana and New Orleans is the method of fuel recovery, which captures the impact of high gas prices on a monthly basis. These short-term relief efforts aim to support our customers with the backing of our regulators, and we anticipate evaluating the relief package with them around October and November. I also want to emphasize the importance of our ongoing investment strategy, which has a significant long-term impact on reducing customer bills, along with the positive growth trajectory in the industrial sector that supports customer billing in the long run.

Leo Denault Chairman

The only thing I would add to that Jonathan is certainly for Mississippi customers, the SERI settlement is probably the biggest bang for the buck that we've had in terms of near-term bill relief.

Speaker 8

Could you just remind us the SERI?

I was going to add Jon the securitization that we did we got $100 million of benefits to Louisiana customers. I mean, there's a number of things that we've done that have some big dollars associated with them. We haven't really talked about our gas hedging program that's been beneficial to the customers in this high gas price environment. So there's a number of things that we've done to help mitigate customer bills.

Speaker 8

Great. Thank you. Could I just ask about SERI that that settlement goes into effect regardless of not having reached agreement with the parties correct? And then what's the timing on when that benefit flows?

Speaker 5

Yes, that's correct. We're asking FERC to approve and ratify that settlement by November, but Mississippi is already taking steps to implement the benefits for customers. November is the timeframe from FERC's perspective.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then just maybe finally, you reflected the Mississippi aspect of this settlement in guidance. Is that the gross impact assuming others went down a similar trajectory, or is it just the discrete Mississippi piece?

Right now, it's assuming a grossed-up element, an inclusive everybody got the same as Mississippi, but we're not commenting beyond that about where it might end up given we have ongoing discussions.

Speaker 8

Okay. But you've got at least that in that?

Yeah.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. Thank you very much, guys.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley. Your question please.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning. Thanks so much for taking the question.

Good morning.

Speaker 9

Oh, hi, good morning. I was curious about the Inflation Reduction Act. Do you have a view at this stage just how much that could improve your competitiveness on the renewables front and whether it could unlock additional opportunity to rate base renewables within the play going forward versus the proportion that you've been assuming thus far?

I don't have specific numbers to share right now, but I can say that we believe this will equalize the competitive landscape for us. If everything goes as planned, we may not need to pursue the tax equity partnerships we've been using. This reduces some of the challenges we've faced and enables us to invest more capital. These changes are beneficial from both a utility and ownership perspective. Our customers will also benefit as they will experience ongoing operational improvements that will directly impact them rather than a third party. It offers more flexibility with our assets, allowing us to respond to any issues more swiftly, without having to rely on third-party complications. Overall, there are numerous advantages tied to owning utilities that were challenging when we were previously at a structural disadvantage. We believe that customers will gain significant benefits over the long term, though I don’t have the exact numbers at this moment.

Speaker 9

Great. Yeah. Thanks. That's helpful. And you had also mentioned on the cash flow side of things. It sounded like it was neutral. Is the way to think about that that you're already planning to see a cash tax bill that's at least at the level of the AMT that's been floated out there such that there wouldn't be an incremental cash flow drag as you see it?

Leo Denault Chairman

David, this is Leo. I don't think that's the case. I think it's just the case that we'll be able to utilize the credits against the AMT plus the transferability of the credit allows for us to be able to get that to neutral.

Yeah. And I will add that that's an ongoing basis. I referenced the first year. There is a timing element that's out there that we had to pay close attention to between the A&T starting in 2023 and the bulk of our tax credits would be from the nuclear tax credit and those wouldn't start until 2024. So there's that 2023 gap that we'll have to figure out how to work through. The good news is it should be an offset to deferred taxes. So that means our rate base should go up. But we got to work through that. We got to get the final bill work through that with retail regulators, talk to rating agencies and the like.

Speaker 9

Yeah. Okay. Thanks. So that does assume essentially that you get the nuclear tax credits that you're able to collect them and that's what helps you offset that AMT cash drag?

Correct, correct.

Speaker 9

Okay, great. Got it. Thanks so much.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of David Paz from Wolfe Research. Your question, please.

Speaker 10

Hey, good morning.

Leo Denault Chairman

Good morning.

Good morning.

Speaker 10

Just on Grand Gulf according to the NRC data, it's been down since July 12. I just wanted to know why has it been down? When do you expect it to come back online? And then maybe just remind us, in terms of the mechanisms you have in place for replacement costs and so forth? Thank you.

Leo Denault Chairman

We encountered some equipment issues that required the plant to be taken offline for repairs, which are currently in progress. We expect the plant to be back online soon following a recent refueling outage where we replaced a significant amount of equipment, building on last year's record performance. Additionally, I want to highlight that the River Bend station has achieved its longest continuous run online. As for the mechanisms related to replacement costs, I'm not sure if you want to discuss that further.

Speaker 5

Yeah, it's a monthly formula rate plan where the flow-through of cost of operating the plant are part of the FRP.

And the contracts back to the operating companies are unit contingent. So they would just replace the purchase power in the market as they do every day and that would flow through the fuel costs.

Speaker 5

Of each of the individual.

As each of the individual operating companies.

Speaker 10

Got it. Okay. Makes sense. Thank you.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Your question, please.

Speaker 11

Hey, guys. Congrats on a great quarter, and thank you for taking the question. I don't know, if this is a Leo or Rod one, but I'm just curious process-wise, the grid hardening or the system hardening proposals in Louisiana and Texas, how does that – how do you think that will look from a docket perspective? And how will – what you're thinking about recommending there, how will that mature? How will that interface with the existing ratemaking structures that are already in place in those states meaning the formula rate plans in Louisiana and the DCRF and the transmission recovery and the general rate case process in Texas?

Speaker 5

Hey, Michael, it's Rod. We discussed this at our Analyst Day. Essentially, the timing of our agreement in Louisiana and how the state views the capital plan for resiliency will decide if we can include the capital costs in the current FRP and recovery riders or if we need an alternative approach. This is also linked to the scale of the project, as we mentioned during Analyst Day that our capital program would increase from $2 million to $4 million for accelerated resiliency, primarily in Louisiana, through existing mechanisms. Whether we require a different strategy will depend on how the commission collaborates with us regarding the timing of capital expenditures. In Texas, the process will start with our planned filing in October. We have postponed the accelerated resilience filing in Texas to 2023, aligning it with the timing of the rate case and OCAPS. We aim to sequence the resiliency filing after both OCAPS and the rate case. The situation in Texas is not significantly different from Louisiana. Depending on how the commission and our customers view the timing of resiliency spending in Texas, we will need to determine if we can absorb that capital expenditure through the existing T&D recovery riders or if adjustments in regulatory recovery mechanisms are necessary. We are still assessing this, but our overall thinking remains consistent.

Leo Denault Chairman

And Michael, this is Leo. I'll just add that in addition to what Rod mentioned about how they fit size-wise under existing regulatory mechanisms, there is a detail concerning assets that we need to replace that are not yet fully depreciated. This is a refinement that we may need to consider. As you recall, we faced a similar refinement in the regulatory process for AMI across different jurisdictions, where we replaced functioning meters with new ones that are more cost-effective and will enhance service levels for customers in the future. The situation here is analogous. We have $2.2 billion already planned that aligns with the current regulatory mechanisms regarding sizing and fully depreciated property. However, our regulators have publicly backed the replacement of equipment installed 15 years ago—when the industry standards were different—with new standard equipment. We need a strategy for recovering the costs of the existing equipment that hasn't been fully depreciated yet. This is consistent across all jurisdictions regarding the meters, and it's an additional refinement that we will need to navigate in those jurisdictions.

Speaker 11

Thank you for that, Leo and Rod. I have a quick follow-up regarding Louisiana. Currently, you are experiencing a lag there, correct? I would suggest that Louisiana might be one of the more challenging areas for you to earn authorization. Are you concerned that without a change in the rate-making process, specifically a more forward-looking structure to the formula rate plan, continuing with the existing framework could further exacerbate the lag?

Speaker 5

It's always a concern. And our primary objective is to match the CapEx for customer benefits with the recovery mechanisms for the stakeholders and including you guys. So yes, that is a constant tension as we work through the forward-looking view of our capital plan and recovery mechanisms, Michael. So it is very much a part of the conversation.

And Louisiana has some good precedence around this. I mean, Leo was talking about AMI and the AMI dockets in Louisiana, we were able to get more contemporaneous recovery. And, of course, on the capacity side, we have a long history of getting generation assets into rates when they get to COD. So I think there are examples of how this could work differently in Louisiana, but we certainly echo Rod's concern.

Speaker 11

Got it. Thank you guys. Much appreciate it.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Michael.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our final question for today comes from the line of Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Your question please.

Speaker 12

Hey, guys. Good to hear your voice. Just procedurally back to the SERI settlement, it seemed like no party, well at least none of the state commissions objected to the settlement at all. Is there any reason why the November approval can't happen any earlier, or how should we think about that the potential for the FERC approval assuming that they approve it?

Speaker 5

The FERC sets the procedural schedule, and we don’t have the authority to dictate that to them, which I say with respect. However, they are typically responsive to us and other stakeholders when there’s a clear objective, particularly in this case where we aim to minimize the overall concerns around SERI and highlight the potential benefits for customers. We hope for a quick resolution on our end, but we are also considering the interests of other stakeholders involved in the first docket, which, as you can imagine, involves more than just Entergy. We appreciate any efforts from FERC to expedite the review of this settlement that is beneficial for customers in Mississippi.

Speaker 12

Awesome. Some parties are suggesting splitting up certain proceedings, and I understand the public documents and discussions you're having. Generally speaking, if I'm mistaken, please correct me. With the most favored nation provision in the settlement, if there's a litigated portion, that portion is not subject to the most favored nation adjustment. Is that correct?

Speaker 5

I think you got that right.

Speaker 12

Okay. Okay. That’s it for me. Thanks so much.

Speaker 5

Thank you, Paul.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Bill Abler for any further remarks.

Bill Abler Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Jonathan, and thanks to everyone for participating this morning. Our quarterly report on Form 10-Q is due to the SEC on August 9 and provides more details and disclosures about our financial statements. Events that occur prior to the date of our 10-Q filing that provide additional evidence of conditions that existed at the date of the balance sheet would be reflected in our financial statements in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. Also, as a reminder, we maintain a web page as part of Entergy's Investor Relations website called Regulatory and Other Information, which provides key updates of our regulatory proceedings and important milestones on our strategic execution. While some of this information may be considered material information, you should not rely exclusively on this page for all relevant company information. And this concludes our call. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.