Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. Q4 FY2024 Earnings Call

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for the FIS Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being webcasted. Today's news release, corresponding presentation and webcast are all available on our website at fisglobal.com. Joining me on the call this morning are Stephanie Ferris, our CEO and President; and James Kehoe, our CFO. Stephanie will lead the call with a strategic and operational update, followed by James, who will review our financial results. Turning to Slide 3. Today's remarks will contain forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties as described in the press release and other filings with the SEC. The company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. Please refer to the safe harbor language. Also throughout this conference call, we will be presenting non-GAAP information, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net earnings, adjusted net earnings per share and adjusted free cash flow. These are important financial performance measures for the company but are not financial measures as defined by GAAP. Reconciliation of our non-GAAP information to the GAAP financial information is presented in our earnings release. And now I'll turn the call over to Stephanie.

Thank you, George, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. 2024 was a year of continued progress at FIS. We made significant strides executing on the strategy we laid out at Investor Day to drive commercial excellence across the enterprise, refocused sales on key growth vectors and extended and complemented our portfolio of solutions with targeted M&A. We committed to doing this while also focusing on continued profitability and increasing total returns to shareholders. While there is still much work to do, the actions we've taken to refocus the company are driving improved financial outcomes and delivering greater value to all of our stakeholders. Our focus on commercial excellence continues to increase the momentum we are seeing in new sales across core banking and our key growth vectors of digital, payments, and commercial lending, positioning us for accelerated growth going forward. I want to thank the entire FIS team for their commitment and dedication to moving the company forward through this period of rapid change. Overall, we delivered a solid set of financial results in 2024, leveraging our strong position across the money life cycle. Revenue growth accelerated from 3% to 4% in 2024. And while this was slightly below our expectations due to some one-time items, growth in new sales, including a 10% increase in Amplify cross-sales and improved commercial excellence across our client base, leaves us confident in further acceleration in 2025. We are pleased with the early returns on our sales transformation, driving new wins and higher-margin recurring revenue. For example, we've hired more quota-carrying specialists focused on specific solution sets in key verticals such as payments, digital, and treasury and risk. We are confident that the specialized sales approach will allow us to better cross-sell solutions to our clients and position us to capitalize on our most attractive and growing markets. This focus on profitable growth and business simplification translated into strong margin expansion of 64 basis points for the year. This exceeded our original outlook of 20 to 40 basis points. We are poised to drive further margin expansion in 2025, in line with our Investor Day targets as we execute on the pillars of our future forward strategy. The strong execution this year resulted in adjusted EPS growth of 18% on a normalized basis, again, exceeding our full-year outlook. Lastly, we returned $4.8 billion to shareholders across share repurchases and dividends, including $1.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Looking into 2025, we are well positioned to return $2 billion of capital and deliver double-digit total return to shareholders, including 9% to 11% adjusted EPS growth. Turning to Slide 6 for a discussion on new sales, key client wins, and partnerships. I'm pleased to report that we ended the year on a high note with the sales momentum we generated over the first three quarters of the year continuing into the fourth quarter. The strong close reaffirms our confidence in accelerating revenue growth over the course of 2025 and will provide a solid foundation for continued growth into 2026. Beginning with money at rest. We had a record year of core wins with success across all of our strategic banking platforms. This included several competitive takeaways with our core platforms resonating across regional, community, and de novo banks. I'm excited to announce that Centennial Bank, a growing regional bank with over $20 billion in assets, will be moving to our IBS platform. And as part of this strategic migration, they've also selected our B1 Studio digital bank offering, which will be replacing their current provider. We're thrilled to be working with Centennial and look forward to growing alongside them. Our IBS platform was also selected by a leading Midwest-based community bank. The bank will be migrating from a competitor's solution that had been servicing the bank for decades. Moving to digital. New sales of digital solutions grew 70% year-over-year in 2024. Demand was primarily driven by cross-sales into FIS's core clients. Additionally, we are seeing early traction bundling our digital solutions with new core wins, reducing complexity and cost for banks. We expect the strong digital sales momentum to continue in 2025, aided by the recent Dragonfly acquisition and specialized sales focus. Moving to money in motion. We signed a number of new wins across domestic and international banks and premier fintech companies. First, I'm pleased to announce that we entered into a strategic partnership with Affirm, enabling our debit processing clients to have access to Affirm's market-leading buy now pay later capabilities. BNPL represents one of the fastest-growing markets in the changing payments landscape, with over 86 million Americans having used the service in 2024. Our partnership with Affirm, the first of its kind to bring together debit processing with pay over time capabilities, demonstrates FIS's commitment to innovation and unique positioning to unlock financial technology across the money life cycle. During the quarter, we also expanded our relationship with NatWest, a leading U.K. financial institution. NatWest will utilize several new products across both payments and lending. And we've continued to gain traction beyond financial institutions, having signed several new network and processing deals with emerging technology providers. This is a significant opportunity to further diversify our payments business, leveraging our loyalty network and issuing capabilities. Moving to money at work. We had another strong sales quarter with continued demand across trade processing and commercial lending. In the fourth quarter, one of the largest regional banks in the U.S. opted for FIS's transfer agency solution. This is another example of how our cross-sell initiative Amplify is resonating with clients. We also continue to see the benefit of integrating our strategic acquisitions into our global distribution network. During the quarter, Torstone, a specialized SaaS post-trade platform acquired in early 2024, signed one of the largest deals in its history, leveraging FIS's brand and track record in the market. Torstone was able to sell its back-office services to a leading digital brokerage company. In the fourth quarter, we also signed a number of new engagements with both traditional and alternative lenders, and our pipeline of opportunities remains large. Commercial lending remains a key growth vertical for us with double-digit revenue growth in the quarter and strong new sales. FIS's products and solutions were once again recognized by a number of prestigious advisory and expert firms across the industry. Our Horizon banking platform was recognized by Celent winning in the advanced technology category. While IDC recognized FIS as a leader in MarketScape's North American digital core banking platforms, and for its outstanding customer satisfaction in treasury management. Additionally, Gartner placed Horizon in IBS in the Leaders quadrant of their Magic Quadrant for retail core banking systems. And Affirm also recognized MVP in the Visionaries quadrant. We are pleased to see so many of our products and solutions continue to be recognized as leaders in the market, reaffirming the momentum we are seeing in sales activity. I'll conclude on Slide 7 with an overview of how FIS is capitalizing on the unique market of the office of the CFO. Leveraging our reach across the full money life cycle, FIS is uniquely positioned to tap into one of the most attractive opportunities in enterprise software, helping CFOs turn finance from a cost center into a growth center for their business. The role of the CFO across large enterprises is expanding. Finance leaders are being tasked with improving and automating processes while simultaneously lowering costs and navigating complex tax and regulatory environments. To achieve these goals, CFOs are leaning on trusted technology providers like FIS for help. The office of the CFO represents a global market of over $25 billion with double-digit growth and significant runway to further grow our business with enterprise corporate clients. The fragmented competitive landscape in this space works to our advantage. While competitors might be able to offer clients one or two solutions, FIS delivers a comprehensive suite of end-to-end capabilities across money at rest, in motion, and at work. This suite includes award-winning solutions across payments, supply chain management, digital enhancements, and fraud prevention. And we are further extending our lead with the launch of next-generation solutions, such as Treasury GPT, a new tool launched in partnership with Microsoft. Leveraging AI, corporate treasurers can access and synthesize large pools of data, helping them improve their cash management activities. We are also expanding our reach with strategic M&A, including the recent acquisition of U.K. Fintech Demaca, positioning FIS as a leader in supply chain finance capabilities. This mix of organic and inorganic investments reinforces how we are effectively allocating capital across the company to capitalize on growth opportunities. The office of the CFO is just one example of an attractive and growing market where FIS's unique set of assets positions the company to win. I stepped into the CEO role at FIS two years ago, a company I am honored and privileged to lead. During this timeframe, we initiated one of the largest transformational strategies in the company's history to improve our profitability and financial foundation, enabling us to drive key client outcomes of simplification, innovation, and client centricity, as well as investor outcomes of enhanced shareholder value. The organic and inorganic investments we are making are delivering tangible results. We have successfully completed five acquisitions, driving positive financial returns and extending our solution capabilities in key growth areas such as digital, payments, and commercial lending. We established new commercial partnerships with industry leaders like Microsoft, Affirm, and Worldpay among others. These partnerships have enabled us to extend innovative new capabilities to our clients and their customers. We had our strongest year ever in core banking with record new wins and sales momentum across our key growth vectors, including 70% growth in digital sales and continued demand for our commercial lending solutions. Overall, new sales increased a solid 9% in 2024, showing progress in our commercial excellence transformation and providing us with visibility into future growth as signings convert into revenue over the next few quarters. Our solutions have received dozens of new awards and third-party accolades from prestigious organizations, recognizing us as leaders and visionaries. We are on the right path to accelerate growth, expand profitability, and increase shareholder value. And while progress isn't a straight line, and we still have more work to do, I'm extremely pleased with the momentum we have and excited about our prospects going forward. And with that, I'll turn it over to James for a review of our financials.

Thank you, Stephanie, and good morning. As Stephanie mentioned earlier, we made continued progress in 2024, laying a strong foundation to achieve our Investor Day goals. The separation of Worldpay was a landmark event, allowing us to increase our growth investments while returning significant cash to shareholders. Our financial results in 2024 coupled with strong growth in new ACV sales and improved commercial excellence give us great confidence for the year ahead. Turning now to our quarter results on Slide 10. Adjusted revenue growth was 4% in the quarter. We outperformed again in capital markets, coming in above the high end of our guide. Banking delivered a strong ACV sales quarter, but revenue growth lagged expectations due to some one-time items. While these items pressured our fourth-quarter results, overall, they will have a positive impact on our 2025 banking revenue growth with a meaningful acceleration beginning in the second quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA margin came in well ahead of our expectations, expanding more than 100 basis points year-over-year, driven by capital markets and lower corporate costs. Adjusted EPS increased 49% or 9% on a normalized basis, led by strong EBITDA growth of 6%. Total debt was $11.3 billion, with a leverage ratio of 2.65x, better than our stated goal of 2.8x. During the fourth quarter, we returned $1.2 billion of capital to shareholders, including share repurchases of $1 billion. And for the year, we fully delivered on our $4 billion target. Free cash flow was $700 million in the quarter, with a cash conversion rate of 110%. While our cash conversion in the quarter was strong, it did fall short of our expectations due to less favorable working capital performance. This led to a full-year cash conversion of 77%, and we are taking action to improve our working capital conversion going forward. Turning now to our segment results on Slide 11. Adjusted revenue growth was 4% with recurring revenue growth at 2%. Banking grew 2% in the quarter, coming in slightly below our outlook; three unexpected items hit us late in the quarter and negatively impacted revenue growth by around 2 percentage points. Recurring revenue growth of 1% includes a negative impact of approximately 1% from a contract recognition adjustment. As a reminder, we are growing over an unusually strong 7% recurring growth in the prior year. Nonrecurring revenue declined 3%, including two unexpected items. First, a large license deal pushed out of the full quarter and is now expected to close later in 2025. Secondly, the results include the reversal of a $20 million termination fee related to an announced bank merger, which was subsequently abandoned due to regulatory scrutiny. While the reversal of this termination fee was a sizable headwind in the quarter, the retention of this client will benefit recurring revenue in 2025. Professional services advanced 16% in line with our prior expectations for acceleration over the second half of 2024. Banking EBITDA margin declined 120 basis points entirely due to unfavorable product mix. Turning now to capital markets, which had another very strong quarter. Adjusted revenue growth came in ahead of expectations at 9%, with strong recurring revenue growth of 7%. Other nonrecurring revenue advanced 16%, fueled by very strong license sales and professional services increased 5%. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 190 basis points, reflecting strong growth in high-margin license revenue and favorable operating leverage. Turning now to our full year results on Slide 12. Adjusted revenue and recurring revenue grew 4%. Banking revenue grew 2% with recurring revenue growth of 3% and inclusive of the fourth-quarter headwinds we discussed earlier. Worldpay related revenue was $140 million for the year compared to $31 million in 2023. This was more than offset by the loss of $150 million of revenue from federally funded pandemic relief. On a normalized basis, Banking's underlying growth was above 3% for the year. Cost savings and operating leverage led to margin expansion of 88 basis points. Our Capital Markets business had a banner year with 7% growth in both adjusted and recurring revenue, margins expanded 73 basis points benefiting from growth in higher-margin license sales, cost savings, and continued operating leverage. Turning now to Slide 13 for 2025 outlook. Our outlook is fully aligned with the goals we set at Investor Day. We expect revenue growth to accelerate to 4.6% to 5.2%, in line with our Investor Day commentary of accelerating revenue growth. We expect margin expansion of 40 to 45 basis points, consistent with our prior guide of 2025 being at the lower end of the 40 to 60 basis points reach. Adjusted EPS growth is projected at 9% to 11%, within our two-year target of 9% to 12%. This is a strong EPS performance given the higher 2024 jump-off point. When we provided the guide back in May of last year, 2024 EPS was projected at 10% to 12% growth on a normalized basis. We delivered 18% growth in 2024, and absolute EPS was $0.24 higher than the upper end of our range. Our target leverage is unchanged at 2.8x, and we expect cash conversion to improve from 77% in 2024 to 82% to 85% in 2025. We recently increased our dividend by 11%, and we expect to deploy $1 billion of capital toward M&A. Importantly, we are raising our share repurchase goal from around $800 million to $1.2 billion, and this reflects our commitment to return excess cash to shareholders. In summary, our 2025 outlook is fully aligned with the midterm goals we set at Investor Day. Let's turn now to our more detailed projections on Page 14. We are projecting full year revenue of $10.4 billion to $10.5 billion. This includes an expected $50 million currency headwind as well as the wind-down of a nonstrategic business within the Corporate and Other segment. Together, these items will reduce reported revenue by approximately $100 million for the year, with no impact on adjusted revenue growth. Full-year revenue growth of 4.6% to 5.2% is projected to accelerate over the course of the year. Banking growth is projected at 3.7% to 4.4%, consistent with our midterm targets. We are expecting another year of strong revenue growth from capital markets with a full-year range of 6.5% to 7%. We do, however, anticipate a somewhat slower start to the year with first quarter revenue growth projected at 2.5% to 3.5%. While capital markets will have a strong start to the year with 7% to 8% growth, banking is facing a tough go over of 200 basis points of nonrecurring revenue due to exceptionally high license and termination fees in the first quarter of last year. Excluding this impact, our banking outlook of 0.5% to 1.5% growth would be closer to 2.5% to 3.5%. Banking growth will accelerate over the course of the year as we benefit from very strong 2024 recurring ACV sales and the ramp-up of previously signed deals. On our third-quarter call, we highlighted some client requested implementation delays. While these contracts are already signed, the requested delays shifted revenue out of both the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. This has shifted over a point of growth from the first quarter into the second quarter. In summary, while the first quarter will be softer than the full year, we expect an immediate pickup in the second quarter. We have good visibility into the drivers and we are confident our second quarter banking growth will be within the full year outlook range of 3.7% to 4.4%. As I mentioned earlier, we anticipate full-year margin expansion of 40 to 45 basis points. Strong execution of our established cost management capabilities and favorable operating leverage will more than offset the roll-off of TSA's cost increases and a less favorable revenue mix. In summary, accelerating revenue growth, continued margin expansion, and strong management of below-the-line items will drive adjusted EPS growth of 9% to 11%. Let me now walk you through our revenue building blocks on Slide 15. We have clear line of sight into accelerating banking growth over the course of the year. Strong ACV sales, higher retention, and deferred implementations will drive 150 basis points of incremental revenue growth. The recent Dragonfly digital acquisition adds an additional 60 basis points of growth. These improved growth trends will be modestly offset by declining nonrecurring revenue, leading to banking adjusted revenue growth of 3.7% to 4.4%. For capital markets, we are projecting consistent high-quality revenue growth of 6.5% to 7%. The growth will be driven by ongoing expansion into faster-growing adjacent verticals with a similar M&A contribution in 2025 as compared to 2024. Let me now cover the below-the-line assumptions on Slide 16. We expect interest expense and tax rate to be in line or better than our Investor Day targets. Interest expense will increase to $120 million to around $370 million, reflecting increased leverage and lower interest income. We will reduce our effective tax rate to 12% to 12.5% from above 15% in 2024. Diluted shares outstanding will decline 5%. Lastly, we anticipate a Worldpay EMI contribution of around $550 million, well ahead of our Investor Day outlook, and increasing around 7.5% over 2024. Let me now wrap up on Slide 17. In summary, our 2025 financial outlook is fully aligned with the goals we set at our Investor Day last year. Banking revenue growth will accelerate to around 4% with recurring revenue growing at a faster pace. Capital Markets will continue to grow at around 7%, and we are targeting margin expansion of 40 to 45 basis points, underpinned by a strong track record on cost management. Lastly, we are targeting $2 billion of capital return in 2025, and we will deliver total returns of 11% to 13%. With that, operator, could you please open the line for questions?

And our first question will come from Will Nance with Goldman Sachs.

I wanted to follow up on the discussion regarding the pace of banking revenue growth. I understand the various factors affecting the first quarter and the deals mentioned last quarter. Could you clarify the expectations for the acceleration in recurring revenue throughout the year? Additionally, can you highlight any nonrecurring challenges we should anticipate over the year?

So thanks, Will, maybe I'll kick off at a high level, and I'll let James add on some of the specifics around the numbers. I think in third quarter, you heard us talk about some of our strong new sales wins that we had experienced at the end of '23 and the beginning of '24 moving, at client request, into the second half or Q2 and beyond in 2025. If you'll recall, we talked about that. And so that move, which is about 100 basis points in terms of signed deals where we have clear visibility, is going to really start to take hold, they're implementing in the first quarter, and then you'll see the revenue from those in the second quarter. So the move of those contract implementations, which we previewed in the third quarter, is impacting our fourth quarter and our first quarter numbers in terms of being a bit lighter than you would expect. So I would say that. And then also in terms of visibility, as we think about the cadence of quarterly growth, and James can talk about the specifics in terms of Q4 and Q1. We also feel really good about our commercial excellence, both in terms of the sales wins we have in 2024 signed our commercial excellence program, giving us a lot of visibility into client retention, core organic wins, and so as we come into 2025 and those implement, again, remember, these are core wins, this is digital, et cetera. Those are longer tails. We see and feel really confident in terms of visibility coming into Q2 and beyond. So with that, maybe I'll give it over to James in terms of talking about quarters and the difference between recurring and nonrecurring.

Yes, we clearly indicated that the first quarter will be the lowest point of the year, ranging from 2.5% to 3.5%. I will revisit that in a moment. We also made it clear that in the second quarter, there will be a significant increase, aligning more closely with the overall growth for the year. Looking ahead to the second half, we expect a slight acceleration compared to that full year growth. It's important to note that as we navigate through Q1, the underlying performance is actually quite positive when you break it down. For instance, regarding our guidance for banking in Q1, the high end is approximately 1.5%. We mentioned that there are significant headwinds from terminations and licenses compared to the previous year, estimated at around 200 basis points. Additionally, there’s a shift of about 100 basis points due to contract closures being pushed from Q1 to Q2. If we exclude M&A from the figures and focus on the core business's run rate, we estimate around 4%. This gives us confidence that we can achieve our reported numbers in the second quarter. It’s important to note that this is not solely a second half growth story; we are experiencing delays in contracts that we are actively addressing. I feel optimistic about our progress, especially since ACV sales increased by 9% year-over-year. Looking towards 2025, over 80% of the new sales we are anticipating are already signed, providing us solid visibility for the upcoming quarters.

Thank you for that. It's clear. I also appreciate some of the calculations in the first quarter; they provide a useful connection. Shifting to another topic, I wanted to inquire about the technology outage in the first quarter. Did this have any impact on the numbers, such as losses in top-line revenue or increased spending on business continuity? Additionally, how are you managing the consequences of that event?

Yes, we did experience a partial system outage that temporarily disrupted our operations. I want to clarify that it was not a cyberattack or any malicious activity, and there were no data breaches. We were able to get our clients back online very quickly and have been collaborating with them since. We do not expect the incident to have a significant impact on FIS's results or our operations. We are confident about the aftermath of this situation, as we were back online swiftly and believe there will be no substantial effect on us now or in the future.

And that will come from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

Just on the ACV question, it was up 9% in '24. Stephanie, what are you thinking for '25? Can you do better than that? Is the composition going to be more larger deals? Or could we see a bigger contribution from shorter projects, that kind of thing.

Yes. Great question, Tien-Tsin. Of course, it's more than 9%, absolutely. We think we are on a growth trajectory here. And if you remember from Investor Day, we talked about how we were going to focus on sales. So we were getting back to our knitting in terms of core and our base business. We had record core wins in 2024. We're on the same track in 2025. We're really getting our mojo back there, I feel really good about that, both in terms of wins and client excellence. As we think about our 2025 sales consistent with Investor Day, we're focused on digital sales, we're focused on payment sales. We're focused on lending sales, the places where we really plan to accelerate growth because of the size of the TAM, our product set, and how much growth is there. Really pleased with the digital growth we saw in '24, but lots of runway there. We talked about 10% growth in Amplify. So I still think we're in early innings in terms of our sales growth. And as we said on the call, we have increased the number of sales folks in the field for us. We feel like we've got our mojo back in core, but we are increasing specialty in these high-growth areas, whether it's commercial lending, digital. We see demand. We also see big demand in the office of the CFO. So that's where you're seeing us focus significantly this year, and we would expect to see incrementally more growth in sales in terms of 2025.

I wanted to follow up on the office of the CFO and some of the wins you've mentioned. Is there an expected impact on EBITDA margin specifically within banking for the upcoming ACV and deals that are being finalized? I heard that in the fourth quarter there was an unfavorable product mix, so what should we anticipate?

Yes, I'll do high level and James can hit me a little bit. I think the margins we're expecting is continued focus on all of our cost programs. I think we've been largely successful there, which is across the entire business. So we expect to see banking margins expand. I think the product mix he was referring to was really the reversal of the termination fee. So if you think about that, that comes straight out of revenue and profit is more around what he was talking about with respect to product mix. So I think from a margin standpoint, we're continuing to be focused on very strong cost discipline. As you know, we're battling through the Worldpay dissynergies as they come off and feel really good about where we ended in '24. And we feel like our guide for margins in 2025 is right in line with what we said at Investor Day, which is us significantly focusing on both top line and bottom line.

And that will come from the line of Darrin Peller with Wolfe Research.

James, maybe just a financial question to start off. Can you just remind us of the moving parts on the free cash conversion side from the trend line of what occurred throughout the last year? I know we talked about some of the vendors. But more importantly, just the conviction in the trend getting going in the right way for the next few quarters and into the end of '25 and where you really look to see that exit rate going forward.

We came in at 77, which was below our target of about 85. In the last call, we mentioned a number of unusually aggressive suppliers. Looking ahead over an 18-month period, that results in about 50 basis points of pressure on capital expenditures, translating to roughly $50 million a year. This is the first source of pressure we encountered. The second source is that we haven't been attentive enough to net working capital. While we've focused heavily on capital allocation, governance around the capital budget, return on investment, and acquisitions, we've realized that we are paying our suppliers too quickly. Our payment terms are in the 40s, while many companies are operating in the 90s. Over the last six months, we have also seen some extension on payment terms with customers, and we need to be more vigilant about that. Additionally, our collections have not met my expectations. The slippage toward the end of the year is understandable, and we have established programs to address it. We are reviewing overdue contracts and will be extending payments. I want to be clear that we have a solid path to the guidance we've provided, which is in the range of 82 to 85. The reason for the range is the volatility we experienced at the end of the year, but I am targeting the higher end. I believe that in 2016, we will return to business as usual and reestablish our position above 90%. The CapEx is projected to run at 9% in 2025, which is about one percentage point higher than the guidance we provided 12 months ago when we anticipated it would be 8% or lower. This increase is impacting our performance compared to the 85% target versus 90%. We are confident in our projections and expect to achieve 90% by 2026.

Okay. Very helpful, James. Stephanie, just a quick one. Understanding there's been delays, but what specific types of contracts and revenue are you seeing demand for in the banking side? What are you seeing the most excitement for from customers right now for new business in the banking side?

Definitely continue to see a lot of demand around our core. We've made some significant investments. You heard us highlight IBS. Digital, digital, digital, digital, every financial institution is focused on their digital experience, which is why we continue to invest very significantly both organically and then from an acquisition standpoint, so we can serve everybody. Commercial lending continues to be a very big demand across the board, not just with banks but with private credit and asset managers, etc. And then the last one, which is what we highlighted the office of the CFO. We think we're uniquely positioned there. We see a huge amount of demand, and we see mainly niche players. And we think bringing together our products and putting them into an office of the CFO solution is we're taking the market by storm there. Again, winning a lot of awards in that scenario. We think that's just early days, and that's a place we're really carving out for ourselves. So overall, I would say that's where I see a significant amount of demand.

And that will come from the line of Dan Dolev with Mizuho.

Great job here on capital markets. hopefully, you guys will get credit for that performance. I do have a question about unpacking 4Q banking growth. So starting at 2%, there's Worldpay. Like can you unpack, James, for us what's the underlying growth, we think for M&A, Worldpay dysynergies, and all the factors that you called out like all in? And then I have a quick follow-up.

Yes. So Worldpay contributed about $34 million in the quarter, equating to around 200 basis points. We view M&A and dissynergy together, resulting in a net positive impact of 30 basis points. The fourth quarter saw a positive contribution from these two factors. You may remember from previous calls that the negatives related to pandemic revenue were 160 basis points, which almost completely negates the Worldpay Commercial Services contribution for the quarter. Additionally, contract recognition items in the quarter reduced revenue due to a term fee switch between the third and fourth quarters. When we consider the positives from Worldpay and the M&A negatives from pandemic dissynergy and contract recognition, we see a core growth of approximately 3% for the quarter. Recurring growth was slightly higher than that, likely a bit over 3%.

Got it. And maybe Stephanie, a little more strategic question. Like how do you feel about the portfolio today? Obviously, there's been a lot of chatter about potential changes in the competitive landscape. So if you think about your two businesses, how happy are you with the current portfolio? And what else do you think you could need to boost client overlap etc.?

Yes, we are very pleased with our progress in executing our plans from Investor Days, particularly in returning to our core business. This is evident in our growth in trading, processing, and core banking. We are focusing on both organic and inorganic growth opportunities in areas we believe are ripe for expansion, such as digital payments, lending, treasury, and risk management. We are strategically positioning ourselves in commercial lending, taking advantage of opportunities in private credit and hedge funds, as well as offering a suite of products through the office of the CFO that uniquely combines banking and capital markets services, distinguishing us from many competitors. Post Investor Day, following the separation of Worldpay, we continue to collaborate with them, which we view as strategically beneficial. We are carving out a niche with our unique assets that set us apart from typical comparisons. It’s important to note that we are not solely a payments company; while we have substantial payment capabilities, we cater to large corporations and financial institutions worldwide. Our strategy is to leverage that scale and global reach with a strong product portfolio. Moving forward, our M&A strategy will continue to focus on acquiring assets that can enhance our growth in these high-potential areas.

And that will come from the line of Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

I just wanted to start on the banking outlook for '25 again. I know we've got the 3.7% to 4.4%. James, can you just put a finer point on the recurring versus the nonrecurring growth rate for '25 and just what the Worldpay revenues and banking look like in '25 versus 2024?

Yes. So as we said, we're accelerating to 3.7% to 4.4%. It's mostly coming from the 150 basis points of acceleration coming from strong sales and execution. And I said earlier that about 80% of the new sales is already signed, sealed, and delivered. When you think about recurring, we want to avoid start getting into a guide on recurring. Recurring will generally be in line with our prior comments. Now recurring will be slightly ahead all the adjusted. So you can assume as you build out your models, your recurring and banking will be growing slightly ahead of the adjusted and the sum of the professional services and nonrecurring will be growing slower. So not by much. It will be a percentage point or less. When you get into Worldpay, the growth of the core business ex-Worldpay would be faster. So said another way, of the $140 million of Worldpay business this year, some of that was nonrecurring, and I'll get the numbers wrong. We didn't give the split. So I think we're currently projecting that Worldpay next year will be slightly below the $140 million. So actually, Worldpay will be a slight headwind next year as opposed to a tailwind, not by much, not by much, 20, 30 basis points kind of number. So Worldpay is not contributing next year. In fact, it's actually pulling the banking growth rate down slightly.

I want to clarify that there was a lot of discussion about this after the third quarter. The Worldpay revenue should be viewed as a commercial strategic partnership. This was highlighted during our business separation. We will maintain a commercial relationship similar to what we have with Affirm and Microsoft. While it is crucial from a market perspective, it has not been a growth driver in 2024 as it is fully offset by pandemic revenue, and it is not expected to contribute to growth in 2025 as we anticipate a slight decline. Therefore, Worldpay revenue, while significant, is not boosting growth for either 2024 or 2025.

And that will come from the line of Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

It feels like the 2025 banking guide is pretty contingent on getting that deal backlog implemented on schedule. Could the timing shift further at this point? I guess, how much visibility and/or confidence do you have that these deals will get turned on now when you expect?

Yes, Ramsey, that's a great question. I'll take that. We're quite confident about a 100 basis point increase. The only factor that could change this is if potential acquisitions close in the first quarter instead of the second quarter. Additionally, we are already beginning to see another one being implemented in the latter half of the first quarter. We are very optimistic about the 100 basis points. While it is possible that an acquisition could face delays due to the timing of regulatory approval, especially since it's a large transaction, we are currently feeling very good about it. If there are any delays, it might cross into another quarter, but overall, we remain confident in these implementations. As I mentioned, one of them is already in progress.

Got it. Okay. Super helpful. And then a follow-up for me. The 2025 free cash flow conversion guidance definitely higher than '24, a bit below the medium-term guide set out at Analyst Day. What are the levers that you have, James, to basically get that into the longer-term range from where it will sit in 2025 if all goes as planned?

I believe the first point is that capital in 2025 is expected to be 9% of revenue, while our long-term goal is set at 8%. This shift should result in an improvement of around $100 million compared to the current range of $85 million to $90 million. Additionally, we are currently paying our accounts payable too early, as we should be targeting a 90-day payment period, but we're operating at 45 to 50 days depending on the supplier. Furthermore, we are experiencing some late collections that we ideally shouldn't have, indicating that there are significant opportunities for improvement in our entire collection process. We are optimistic about the flow of EBITDA over the next three years, as the primary driver of cash flow for any company is the quality of earnings and EBITDA.

And that will come from the line of Vasu Govil with KBW.

I guess the first one I had was on the EMI contribution from Worldpay. It's a pretty healthy number despite the outperformance this year. And just wanted to see how you've guided to that for '25 and if there's room for upward bias this year as well or were done with the easy upside at this point? And I know Worldpay revenues were also better this quarter. So any color on that would be helpful as well.

Worldpay had a very strong fourth quarter, with revenue up by about 7%. The positive variance against our previous guidance was largely due to EBITDA, indicating a robust finish. We are setting a 7.5% guidance in agreement with Worldpay's management. Much of the projected upside is based on a strong start in the first quarter and a solid close to the previous year. They refinanced their debt once last year and again this year, which is factored into our guidance. Additionally, some upside last year was due to not fully implementing the planned stand-alone structure, which may pose a challenge in 2025. Overall, we are confident in our guidance as the business is performing exceptionally well, and we have clear visibility on its progress.

And just a quick one for you, Stephanie. I know bank M&A seems to be picking up and wanted to get your temperature check on that. I know in the past, you've said it's a net positive for you guys. Just any additional thoughts around that? And if anything related to that is baked into the outlook today?

No. I would say in terms of the outlook, we have normal M&A contributions. We've baked in what we know. We don't bake in what we don't know. We have an unknown number, of course, but we have a lot of visibility into that at this point. We view M&A, like everybody does, in terms of being an opportunity. Some go our way, some don't. But generally, we serve larger financial institutions who tend to be consolidators. So we feel really good about that.

We do have time for one final question, and that will come from the line of John Davis with Raymond James.

Just on the buyback, good to see the $1.2 billion, but I thought it might be a little bit bigger given the lack of M&A last year. So is that more a function of conservatism, or is there something bigger in the pipe? Is there any comments there?

So I think when we discussed at Investor Day, we mentioned the range would be $800 million to $1.2 billion, and we indicated that for 2025 it would be $800 million. We've since adjusted that upwards by about $400 million, which is quite close to the underspend in 2024. We expect 2024 to be around $1 billion. We believe we ended up at around $550 million to $600 million, so we see that we nearly returned all of it.

Okay. And then just as a quick follow-up. Obviously, we've talked a lot about the banking guide and the shape of the year. but you do need a further acceleration beyond 2Q in the back half. And Stephanie, is that really just all the new wins you've been talking about implementation? And then is there any risk that those implementations slip similar to what happened in Q4 of '24?

Yes, that's an excellent question, John. As I mentioned, there are three significant implementations that have progressed: one associated with an M&A, and two others at the request of clients. One of these is already in the implementation stage, and the M&A is very close to finalizing. We feel positive about this. However, I cannot guarantee that there won’t be any delays. These are signed agreements, and we are currently working on the implementations, so I am optimistic. As we move into 2025, we are also more confident about overall sales. This includes implementations representing 100 basis points, which I feel good about. As noted in our prepared remarks, we have an overall 150 that we've already sold to clients and now need to implement. We are very positive about this with clear visibility. While these are not necessarily very large, there is a substantial pipeline of implementations, and we've managed this effectively. These are the record core successes we consistently discuss. Our implementation pipeline is quite full for 2025 and 2026, and there is capacity for more, although those will take longer to implement. I understand the frustration regarding the last quarter and the first quarter; we share that frustration. However, we are confident about the acceleration in Q2 and the latter half of the year. It’s primarily a Q2 narrative, and we don’t need extensive selling to achieve our targets. We will continue our sales efforts and increase momentum, but we are confident that we can meet our goals in 2025.

Thank you so much for that. This concludes today's program. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.