Ferroglobe PLC Q4 FY2024 Earnings Call

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ferroglobe's Fourth Quarter Full Year 2024 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this conference call may be recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Alex Rotonen, Ferroglobe's Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Thanks, Sonia. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Ferroglobe's fourth quarter and full year 2024 conference call. Joining me today are Marco Levi, our Chief Executive Officer; and Beatriz García-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started with our prepared remarks, I'm going to read a brief statement. Please turn to Slide 2 at this time. Statements made by management during this conference call that are forward-looking are based on current expectations. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements can be found in Ferroglobe's most recent SEC filings and the exhibits to those filings, which are available on our web page at ferroglobe.com. In addition, this discussion includes references to EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted gross debt, adjusted net debt and adjusted diluted earnings per share, among other non-IFRS measures. Reconciliations of these non-IFRS measures may be found in our most recent SEC filings. Before I turn the call over to Marco Levi, our CEO, I want to announce that we'll be participating in the BMO Global Market Metals, Mining and Critical Minerals Conference in Florida on February 24 and 25. We hope to see you there. Marco?

Thank you, Alex. Thanks for joining us on the call today. We appreciate your interest in Ferroglobe. Before I provide a recap of our 2024 accomplishments, I want to thank all Ferroglobe employees for a successful year. We posted revenue of $1.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $154 million, and free cash flow of $164 million. We used our strong cash flow generation to repay the remaining senior secured notes. Eliminating these notes saves us $32 million in annual interest. In the first quarter of 2024, we became net cash positive for the first time in Ferroglobe's history and maintained our strong balance sheet throughout the year. This strong balance sheet enables us to initiate a capital return program consisting of quarterly dividends and share buybacks. We paid our initial dividend in the first quarter of 2024 and are increasing it by approximately 8% in the first quarter of 2025. In addition, we began our share repurchase program in the third quarter, which we will continue to execute selectively in 2025. We also intend to continue complementing our discretionary repurchases with a 10b5-1 plan. While our share buybacks have been modest, we intend to get more aggressive as we gain visibility and see improvement in our end markets. Maintaining a strong balance sheet to ensure that we have the ability to navigate any downturn is our top priority. One of the most important developments taking place is changing global trade, including potential antidumping and countervailing duties, tariffs, and safeguards. This creates uncertainty until they become better defined. It is clear that governments are taking these measures seriously, and this heightened focus is likely to make tariffs and safeguards more prevalent going forward. Some actions have already taken place and some are under consideration. These trade measures enacted by governments are expected to benefit domestic producers as the trade flows are altered across the globe. As the largest Western producer with significant local operations which are back integrated in North America and Europe, we have historically been significantly impacted by an uneven playing field. Equally importantly, we serve customers who buy mostly local. With the recent government announcements in North America and in Europe within the European community, we are optimistic that these actions will positively impact our market in the coming quarters, providing a tailwind for our business and driving future growth. While the trade uncertainty is difficult to handicap, we believe these trade measures are imperative and will transform our industry for the better. In the U.S., the International Trade Commission determined that Russia, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, and Brazil unfairly priced ferrosilicon, adversely impacting local producers. As a result, combined antidumping and countervailing duties of more than 1,000% were placed on Russia. Final antidumping and countervailing duties against Malaysia, Kazakhstan, and Brazil will be announced by the Department of Commerce on March 21. Combined, these four countries in 2023 imported approximately 140,000 tons of ferrosilicon into the U.S., accounting for approximately 65% of the market share. Overall, these measures are expected to benefit us significantly going forward. The European market has also been damaged by low-priced imports, particularly from Eastern countries. In December 2024, the European Commission initiated a safeguard investigation into silicon metal, silicon-based alloys, and manganese alloy imports. While the potential magnitude of these measures is yet to be determined, we expect the provisional decision in Q2 with the final determination anticipated in Q4. To put things into perspective, the EU's total consumption of silicon metal, silicon alloys, and manganese alloys declined approximately 12% or 300,000 tons between 2019 and 2024. Combined with an estimated 7% point increase in the market share of imports from Eastern countries, this has had a material impact on European markets, which has reflected in pricing. Total imports have increased by 70,000 tons since 2019, accounting for 40% market share. As the largest domestic European producer, these measures, if enacted, are expected to positively impact the quality of the business and provide Ferroglobe with a great opportunity to increase our market share. Moving to current market conditions; it has been a challenging environment in Europe and North America in the recent months. While we expect market conditions to persist through the first half of 2025, we are beginning to see signs of market bottom as indexes have stabilized and prices for FeSi ferrosilicon in Europe and manganese alloys are trending higher. One key factor contributing to our more optimistic outlook is the consistent growth of European steel production over the past several months. The World Steel Association forecasts continued growth of 3.5% in 2025, with North American steel production expected to grow at a rate of 1.6% in 2025. In addition, the EU steel safeguard measure of 2019 is currently under review and the aluminum industry has requested a safeguard investigation into imports. A positive decision would encourage more steel and aluminum production in the EU, further ramping demand for all our products. Another encouraging sign is the improved manufacturing PMIs. In January, the global PMI posted its highest level in 7 months, with the U.S. increasing to 51.2%, representing solid growth, boosted by a 34-month high in the expected production outlook. In addition, Europe's current contraction is expected to show improvement in the coming months. Next, I will discuss the outlook for 2025. On our last call, I mentioned Sales and Operation Planning, or simply S&OP, as another tool to drive incremental improvement across all phases of Ferroglobe. We are in the early innings of its implementation but have already seen benefits with reduced working capital in the fourth quarter. Once implemented across all our businesses, we expect to see material operational efficiency with improved cash flow, lower working capital, and cost benefits. For a brief update on Coreshell; we continue to see promising tech results from this partnership. And as a result, we recently increased our investment. We look forward to continued collaboration as we drive innovation with this exciting technology. We are bullish about silicon metal's role as a disruptive breakthrough in EV batteries. And as a leader in silicon metal, we are well-positioned to capitalize on the industry shift from graphite to silicon-rich anodes in EV batteries. This will significantly enhance the performance of EVs, including lower cost, longer ranges, and shorter charging times. Next, I will provide a brief update on 2025 guidance. We are initiating adjusted EBITDA guidance of $100 million to $170 million. The wider range of guidance is a result of uncertainty related to market conditions, timing of trade cases, potential tariffs, and geopolitical issues. Beatriz will walk you through our main assumptions related to guidance. Next slide, please. Our fourth quarter revenue declined compared to the third quarter due to lower volumes across all three segments. Adjusted EBITDA was $10 million, down from $60 million, impacted by lower prices, higher costs, and softer volumes. Operating cash flow improved by $21 million, reaching $32 million in the fourth quarter. Free cash flow increased to $14 million, an improvement of $24 million over the prior quarter. Next slide, please. Let's talk about silicon metal. Silicon metal revenue declined 17% in Q4 to $161 million, down from $194 million in the third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA declined to $17 million in the fourth quarter due to higher costs, lower prices, and reduced volumes. Realized prices declined 5% over the prior quarter. During the fourth quarter, index prices decreased approximately 16% in the U.S., while the European index was unchanged. Overall, volumes were down 12%, with all regions reporting lower shipments. European and U.S. shipments declined by 13% and 3%, respectively. The outlook for silicon metal continues to be soft. The aluminum sector in Europe and the U.S. is expected to remain flat in the short term. A high level of imports is impacting the North American and European regions. In addition, uncertainties related to potential U.S. tariffs have resulted in some of our solar customers postponing purchasing decisions. Despite these short-term issues, we anticipate that the silicon market will improve once the destocking cycle is completed, which we expect to take a few months. As a result, we are optimistic that demand will pick up in the second half of 2025. Next slide, please. Our silicon-based alloys segment adjusted EBITDA improved slightly to $3 million in Q4, primarily driven by cost improvement. Average realized prices declined by 3% over the third quarter. Volumes were pressured by low demand and aggressively priced imports, especially in Europe, where shipments declined by 25% in the fourth quarter. The European FeSi Standard Index was down 7%, while the U.S. index was down 6%. Looking ahead, we are encouraged by the recent 5% increase in the European index price since the end of 2024. Combined with the various trade measures and forecasted growth in steel production, we expect demand and prices to improve in both Europe and the U.S. as the year progresses. Turning now to manganese alloys. Next slide, please. Revenue declined 13% to $78 million in Q4, driven by a 17% decrease in prices, partially offset by a 5% increase in shipments. Adjusted EBITDA decreased by $9 million, primarily driven by tighter spreads and the impact of working through higher-cost manganese ore inventory. The recent tightening of manganese ore supply is boosting prices, which have risen to a 4-month high. We are optimistic about the manganese segment outlook for 2025, supported by improvements in pricing and higher spreads. The recent uptick in demand is encouraging, and we expect the trend to continue in the coming quarters. I would now like to turn the call over to Beatriz García-Cos, our CFO, to review the financial results and guidance in more detail. Beatriz?

Thank you, Marco. Please turn to Slide 10 for a review of the income statement. Sales decreased 18% sequentially in the fourth quarter to $368 million, driven by a 13% decrease in volumes for both silicon metal and silicon alloys and lower prices in all segments, ranging from 4% for silicon alloys to 17% for manganese alloys. Manganese alloys volumes grew 5% quarter-over-quarter. For the full year, sales were flat versus 2023, with growth in the manganese alloy segment offsetting declines in ferrosilicon sales. Silicon metal sales were up slightly for the full year. In the fourth quarter, raw material and energy consumption for production increased to 69% of sales versus 58% in the prior quarter, primarily driven by lower production, higher energy costs, and increased manganese ore prices. For the full year, raw material and energy increased 9 percentage points to 62% of sales due to lower prices and higher energy costs in France. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $10 million, down from $60 million in the prior quarter. The full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA was $154 million compared to $315 million in 2023, attributable mainly to higher energy costs in France and lower realized prices. Next slide, please. Approximately 60% of the EBITDA decline is attributable to lower pricing, with realized prices down by 5%, 3%, and 17% in silicon metal, silicon-based alloys, and manganese alloys, respectively. Lower index prices in the third quarter adversely impacted the fourth quarter sales prices due to a 2-month to 3-month lag between indexes and realized prices. Cost increases, primarily due to higher energy costs, idling in France, and elevated manganese ore costs, reduced our EBITDA by approximately $11 million. Lower volumes impacted our adjusted EBITDA by $3 million, mainly due to soft demand across silicon metal and silicon-based alloys, which experienced volume declines of 12% and 13%, respectively. This was partially offset by a 5% increase in volumes in the manganese alloys segment. Head office and noncore business reduced adjusted EBITDA by 4% by $6 million. Slide 12, please. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year was $154 million versus $315 million in 2023, and EBITDA margin was 9%, down from 19% in 2023. While the stronger volumes contributed $29 million to adjusted EBITDA, average selling prices had the biggest impact on our 2024 adjusted EBITDA, reducing it by approximately $128 million. Higher costs impacted EBITDA for the year by $83 million, mostly related to higher energy expenses in Europe. Head office and noncore business contributed to 2024 adjusted EBITDA driven by lower head office-related costs and improved mining operations. Next slide, please. During the fourth quarter, we recognized a $61 million noncash impairment and goodwill write-off related to our operations. Our operating cash flow was $32 million, benefiting from a $23 million release of working capital. Our decision to idle our French operations earlier, combined with effective energy management, resulted in an energy rebate of $21 million in the fourth quarter. The remaining $34 million was collected in January 2025. CapEx in the fourth quarter was $18 million, down from $21 million in the third quarter. For the full year, we generated $243 million of operating cash flow and spent $79 million in CapEx, resulting in $164 million of free cash flow. We used $150 million of this cash flow to redeem the remaining senior secured notes. We paid $2.4 million or $0.013 per share dividend on December 27, and we are declaring the first quarter 2025 dividend of $0.014 per share, representing an 8% increase. The dividend will be paid on February 26 for shareholders on record on February 20. Next slide, please. We ended the fourth quarter with a cash balance of $133 million, up from $121 million at the end of the third quarter. Our positive net cash position improved to $39 million, up from $32 million in the prior quarter, while our adjusted gross debt increased slightly, ending the quarter at $94 million as of December 31. Before I turn the call over to Marco, I want to provide some more insights related to our 2025 outlook. We are targeting a working capital improvement of $50 million in 2025 as we continue the implementation of the S&OP process. We expect our 2025 CapEx to be in the range of $60 million to $65 million, and cash tax rate to be around 24%. Our outstanding Spanish loan or SEPI loan with a principal balance of $36 million is due in 2025. The first principal payment of $90 million is due in March, with the remaining $17 million due in June. As Marco mentioned earlier, we anticipate our 2025 adjusted EBITDA to range between $100 million and $170 million. For the first quarter, we expect our adjusted EBITDA to be negative due to the impact of low prices, weak demand, and idling operations in France. This is consistent with our budget. Our 2025 outlook reflects a partial benefit from trade measures and an expected improvement in market conditions during the second half of the year. Next slide, please. At this time, I will turn the call back to Marco.

Thank you, Beatriz. Moving to the key takeaways on Slide 16. Ferroglobe had a successful 2024. Despite unfavorable market conditions, we posted solid adjusted EBITDA which strengthened our balance sheet significantly, initiated quarterly dividends and a share buyback program while focusing on innovation in advanced silicon metal as critical material for the energy transition. As evidence of the changing global trade environment, the U.S. Trade Commission and European Commission initiated broad trade measures to level the playing field against predatory trade practices. We expect to capitalize on these measures in the second half of this year. There are early signs that the demand environment might be bottoming. Manganese and FeSi prices in Europe have picked up in recent weeks. We foresee broader improvement in the second half of 2025. Ferroglobe has positioned the company for long-term success by making strides in developing advanced uses for silicon, including a partnership with Coreshell and implementing S&OP tools to increase efficiency and lower working capital. Operator, we are ready for questions.

And the first question comes from Nick Giles from B. Riley Securities.

I wanted to start with your annual guidance. This is a wider range. So I was hoping you could give us a sense for what's baked into the lower end versus the higher end, specifically as it relates to pricing and volume? And then how much of the high end could be determined by implications of trade measures versus improved demand?

Thank you, Nick. To address your question, we are providing the same guidance as last year, but we are experiencing a more volatile environment, particularly regarding demand and uncertainty around trade measures from both the U.S. and Europe. The first quarter will be especially challenging as we begin with very low prices and volumes, along with our French plant being down. However, we anticipate an improvement in the second quarter with potential decisions in the U.S. impacting the situation. By the third quarter, both regions will likely feel the effects of these decisions. The lower end of the guidance reflects a conservative outlook based on current conditions, while the higher end assumes some success in government efforts to impose duties, leading us to our mentioned range of $100 million to $170 million in prices and volumes.

That's helpful. Maybe just a follow-up on that. Would there be any sort of sensitivity that you may be able to provide in terms of volumes or pricing and maybe anchoring near the midpoint?

Yes. Hi Nick, this is Beatriz speaking. Maybe I'm going to be sharing a data point that I think you have already, but let me go through. So for every 1% of variance in pricing, more or less this hits positively our EBITDA by $14 million. This is the number that you have to keep in your mind, if this makes sense.

Got it. No, that's very helpful, Beatriz. I really appreciate that. Maybe my next question, Marco, I was wondering if you could speak to some of the key growth markets in silicon metal in the context of your desire for further expansion. Solar markets do appear somewhat softer. So curious if this changes your appetite for expansion or potential timing? And alongside this, if you'd have any updates as it relates to the brownfield expansion?

We strongly believe that silicon will penetrate the market significantly more than the battery sector. There are both existing and emerging technologies being developed that could increase the graphite replacement in anodes from 5% to as much as 100%. We are collaborating with several companies, including our announced partnership with Coreshell, and others, especially in the U.S. The progress we’re making is impressive; however, it takes time for new technologies to gain traction in battery applications. We are fully committed to this direction. Regarding the solar business, our existing operations are currently affected by substantial overcapacity of polysilicon in China. Additionally, our business is facing challenges due to the ongoing investigation into the imports of solar cells and modules in the U.S., which we expect to conclude around April this year. This should open up sales opportunities for us in Asia. On a larger scale, the overcapacity of polysilicon has led to a significant drop in its price, often below cost for many companies, which has delayed new polysilicon projects outside China. Time is an important factor here. Europe remains interested in establishing a solar supply chain, as do several countries in the Middle East. In the U.S., we anticipate increased production of cells and modules. Therefore, we expect overall demand for silicon metal to benefit from these trends. Concerning our U.S. expansion, we are in the process of submitting the necessary permit applications. This should take a few months, and we expect to receive the permit within about 1.5 years of initiating the process. Following that, it will take approximately two years to complete the construction of the new plant in the U.S. The project is advancing as quickly as possible, and we are determined to see it through.

Marco, I really appreciate all the color there. One more, if I could. It's good to see some initial share repurchases. Obviously, you're waiting for more certainty in the market. But how should we think about magnitude of potential buybacks if markets were to turn? Is there a minimum cash balance in mind that would imply potential cash that could be set aside for capital returns? I know, Beatriz, you mentioned a working capital release of $50 million, if I heard you correctly.

Thank you for the question. This is Beatriz speaking. To summarize, we acquired nearly 600,000 shares in 2024 and have continued to buy shares in Q1. We plan to maintain an opportunistic approach to the share buyback. As we've mentioned in previous quarters, we do not intend to take on additional debt to fund the share buyback program. You also have an understanding of our liquidity requirements for the company, so we will continue with an opportunistic approach. Hopefully, this year, as we release working capital, we can increase our buybacks a bit more.

And the next question comes from Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners.

Just circling back to the annual guidance, if spot prices for silicon and alloys remain unchanged from current levels, do you still achieve the $100 million low end of the guidance range?

We do expect that because there is also a question, Martin, of mix. The first quarter is particularly impacted not only by demand and low pricing but also by the fact that all our French plants are down. The other factor is that we expect to recover some business in the second half of the year which is not there today, which is our business in Asia. So it's a question of mix. But anyway, even keeping the current conditions, we expect to achieve at least the bottom of the range that I have mentioned.

And I would add that the volume is also a factor.

What volumes or range is projected for the full year with $100 million to $170 million across your business units?

Well, we are talking about volumes pretty much aligned to 2024.

Okay. Can you walk me through the contribution of the quarterly French energy credit for 2024, just going through 1 through 4Q? I believe you said earlier it was $21 million for Q4, and what's targeted for 2025?

Hi Martin, this is Beatriz speaking. As you know, the compensation from 2023 to 2024 has been slightly lower, totaling around $60 million to $61 million for the year. In Q4, the impact on the P&L is $24 million. From a cash perspective, we've already received $32 million in 2024, which is part of the total expected to be below $60 million due in January 2025.

And what are you factoring into the guidance for the credit for 2025?

This year will be lower than 2024. The positive aspect is that we are already negotiating the contract that will start on January 1, 2026, and we anticipate securing a favorable agreement.

And the next question comes from Kyle Mowery from GrizzlyRock Capital.

So if the European quota system is finalized as proposed, your European production volume should increase. The question is, as the utilization level increases, how would this impact the cost per ton of your European production?

You mean you asked for price per ton impact. Is this your question?

The question is production cost per ton in Europe.

Okay. Well, let me say that we don't know which measures the EU is going to adopt and if they get approved by the 27 countries, right? So we are in the process. We are still answering a lot of questions that come from suppliers, countries, states that have seen the document. We are in this phase. So I cannot anticipate what the EU is going to propose. But they mentioned safeguards in their announcement on December 19. Safeguards usually mean quotas for countries and specific producers in countries back to a certain year. As a consequence, part of the demand is going to be freed up for the European suppliers. I remind you that the EU has already decided that for critical and strategic raw materials like the ones we have in our portfolio, they want to have a back integration of 40%. Today, the market share of the EU producers is far below this level, at 14% or 15%, probably worse in the first quarter. So there will be a big impact on volume and capacity utilization. Now factoring at this stage how fast this demand is going to come to us is very difficult. And also because in the meantime, it's not clear if there are going to be some retroactive measures imposed on the different importers outside of the EU. I'm sorry for not being precise, but you have to assume that our capacity utilization in the second half of the year in Europe will go up and will go up favoring a much better cost absorption at all our plants.

Yes, that makes sense. Regarding the United States and the ferrosilicon rulings, have you begun to observe the decrease in imports? Additionally, how should we approach the pricing trend as we move into 2025?

Yes. First, looking at the import statistics for 2024, we expect a significant drop in imports from Russia. However, there is still considerable inventory in the U.S. of Russian material, which has affected the overall pricing of ferrosilicon and led to a decrease in its price. Decisions regarding imports from Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and Brazil are pending and should be announced on March 21 this year. The combined imports from these three countries in 2023 accounted for one-third of the market, creating some uncertainty around these volumes. Notably, import volumes from Kazakhstan and Malaysia have diminished nearly to zero. This, coupled with weak steel production in the latter months of the year in the U.S., suggests that inventories are depleting rapidly. Consequently, we anticipate an effect on ferrosilicon demand. Our demand for ferrosilicon in the U.S. is increasing, and we have signed two new contracts with customers unfamiliar with purchasing ferrosilicon from us, indicating positive progress.

It's great to hear. For my last question, regarding the potential new facility in the United States, what kind of return on investment are you looking for to proceed with that project? Are you considering a per ton pricing model? I recall you mentioned longer-term volume contracts. What returns should shareholders anticipate if you decide to move forward with this investment?

Yes. We would expect a much higher return than any previous investment that we have made in silicon metal. The reason is that we think that we have the capabilities to build the most powerful, in terms of performance, not in terms of energy consumption, the most powerful furnace that you can build in terms of output versus size versus energy consumption. But for sure, we are going to expect a return which is higher than our WACC and our cost of capital.

Due to time constraints, we will not be taking any further questions. I would now like to hand back to Marco Levi for any closing remarks.

Thank you. I want to emphasize Ferroglobe's resilience in being able to navigate successfully this uncertain market environment, while at the same time strengthening our balance sheet and positioning the company for growth. Thank you for your participation. We look forward to hearing from you on our next call. Have a great day.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.